2026能源行业洞察报告 DEMAND AND DISRUPTION Energy Industry Insights 2026 Main Report

WHENTRUSTMATTERS

DNV

DEMANDANDDISRUPTION

EnergyIndustryInsights2026MainReport

DNVEnergyIndustryInsights2026

2

CONTENTS

Aboutthereport

3

Acknowledgements

4

Introduction

5

Chapter1:

Newpatternsintheenergyindustry7

Chapter2:

Energysecuritytakescentrestage15

Chapter3:

Atransitionintransition21

Chapter4:

Astrategicturningpointforoilandgas28

Conclusion

33

litttloi!

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ABOUTTHEREPORT

DNV’sEnergyIndustryInsightsreport,nowinits16thyear,exploresthe

confidence,sentiment,andprioritiesfortheenergyindustryintheyearahead.

Thereportdrawsonourannualsurveyofmore

than1,000seniorprofessionalsandaprogramme

ofin-depthinterviewswithleadersandexperts

fromtheenergyindustry.ItisdevelopedandcreatedbyteamsfromDNVandFTLongitude(aFinancial

Timescompany).

Researchforthereportwasconductedduring

January-March2026.Surveyrespondentswere

drawnfromacrosstheenergyindustry,including

publiclylistedcompaniesandprivatelyheldfirms,andspannedelectricalpower,renewables,oilandgas,industryspecialists(e.g.intechnology,finance,orpolicy),andindustrialenergyconsumers.

Therespondentsrepresentarangeoffunctionswithintheindustry,fromboard-levelexecutivestoseniorengineers.

Whilethereport’sinsightsremainvaluable,theyshouldbeconsideredwithinabroadercontextofheighteneduncertaintyandongoingchange.

Total:1,095respondentsfrom96countries

14%

Renewables

Oilandgas

Electricalpower

16%

IndustrialenergyconsumerOtherenergyindustryarea

11%

29%

7%

7%

Europe

14%

46%

LatinAmerica

MiddleEastandAfrica

26%

US$100morlessUS100m-US$500m

US$500m-US$1bn

US$1bn-US$5bn

US$5bn-US$10bn

US$10bnormoreDon’tknow/notapplicable

-suiteexecutive(orequivalent) DirectreporttoC-suiteManagerreportstoC-suiteOther

Notanswered

19%1%

AsiaPacific

NorthAmerica

28%27%26%

38%

35%

13%

19%

6%

6%

8%

7%

C

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Weextendourthankstoalloursurveyrespondentsandthefollowingintervieweesforsharingtheirtimeandinsightswithus:

AlanBruce

EVPofTechnicalServices,HarbourEnergy

(UnitedKingdom)

HansKristianDanielsen

SeniorVicePresident,

BusinessDevelopmentandSalesEnablementDirector,EnergySystems,DNV

(Norway)

Al-KarimGovindji

HeadofPublicAffairs,EnergySystems,DNV(UnitedKingdom)

KelseyHallahan

SeniorDirectorofMarket

Intelligence,AmericanCleanPowerAssociation(ACP)

(UnitedStates)

MarionHill

ExecutiveVicePresidentandRegionalDirector,North

America,EnergySystems,DNV(Canada)

SimenMoxnes

SeniorAdvisor,

NewEnergySystems,Equinor

(Norway)

PrashantSingh

GroupGeneralManager,

OilandNaturalGas

CorporationLimited(ONGC)(India)

JanZschommler

MarketAreaManagerMiddleEast&Africa,EnergySystems,DNV(UnitedArabEmirates)

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INTRODUCTION:ENERGYGROWSMORECOMPLEX

InMarch2026,warintheMiddleEast

triggeredthebiggestshocktoglobal

energymarketsinyears,disruptingoilandgassupplychains,drivingpricessharplyhigher,andforcinggovernmentsand

companiestorethinktheirapproachestoenergysecurityandaffordability.

Itisalsoareminderofthefragilityofglobalenergysupplychains.

ThewarinIranreinforcesthesetrendsbecause

theeconomicimpactofthedisruptionisfarfrom

uniformacrosscountries.“Theenergytransition

alreadyvariessignificantlyfromregiontoregion,

andgeopoliticalshocksoftenreinforcethose

differences,”saysAl-KarimGovindji,HeadofPublicAffairs,EnergySystems,DNV.“Countrieshave

differentenergyresources,differentlevels

ofdependenceonimports,anddifferentpolicypriorities.Thatmeanstheeconomicandenergyimpactsoftheconflictlookverydifferent

acrossregions.”

Thisreportexploresthechanginglandscapeoftheglobalenergyindustrythroughasurveyof

1,095energyprofessionalsfrom96countries,

aswellasin-depthinterviewswithindustryleadersandexperts.

Together,thefindingsrevealanenergysystemthatischangingprofoundly,butinwaysthatarelesslinear,lesspredictable,andmoreregionallyfragmented

thanmanyexpectedonlyafewyearsago.

InChapter1,weexplorehowregionaldivergencehaswidenedmarkedlyinrecentyears,reflecting

differentcombinationsofpolicydirection,economicpressure,industrialcompetitiveness,natural

resources,andexposuretogeopoliticaldisruption.

AsweexploreinChapter4,someenergyexportersmayreceivewindfallgains,whileimport-dependenteconomies–particularlyinEuropeandAsia–will

bearthehighesteconomicandinflationarycosts.Againstthisbackdrop,thechapterexaminestheoutlookfortheoilandgasindustryandtheroleofhydrocarbonsinthefutureofenergy.

Dependenciesanddiversification

Militaryconflictshighlighttheinterconnectednessandinterdependenceoftheworld’smostimportantsystems.Theyalsohighlighttherisks.

Forenergysystems,theescalationofthoserisksin

2026islikelytoacceleratetrends—alreadyunderwayfollowingthepandemicandUkrainewar–tomitigate

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energysecuritythreatsthroughdiversification.

Companiesandgovernmentswillincreaseeffortstosecureadditionalenergysources,suppliers,andtradingpartners,whilealsoseekingtodevelop

domesticenergysourcesandmanufacturing

capabilities.AsweexploreinChapter2,energysecurityisnowcentraltoenergystrategyand

investmentdecisions–forgovernmentsandcompaniesalike.

Butthepriorityofenergysecurityhasnotstalledtheenergytransition–asweshowinChapter3–eventhoughthecleanenergyinvestmentlandscapehasevolved.Inmanypartsoftheworld,renewables,

storage,andgridinvestmentcontinuetogrowrapidly.Chinaisstillexpandingcleanenergyatextraordinaryscale.Solar,batteries,andwindremainonstrongtrajectories.

Buttherouteforwardisbecomingmoreuneven.Gridconstraints,permittingdelays,supply-chainfrictions,highercapitalcosts,andpolitical

uncertaintyareslowingprogressinsomeregions,andforsomeimportantemergingtechnologies.

Amorecomplexenergyworld

Nomatterwhathappensinthenextfewyears,the

2020swillberememberedasadecadeofdisruptedgrowth.EvenpriortothewarinIran,thisdecadewasforecasttorecordtheweakestlevelofglobalgrowth

sincethe1960s

.

Buttheimportanceofenergysecurityiscreatingopportunitiesforallsourcesofenergy,whilethe

electricalpowersectorisbenefittingfrom

drivestomodernizeandexpandpowernetworkstointegraterenewables,meetnewdemand,

andsupportthelong-termtrendtowardsthe

electrificationofbuildings,transport,andindustry.

“Ithinkwhatisuniqueatthispointintimeisthatthereisacombinationofgreatdisruptionand

uncertainty,ononehand,withrobustdemand

growthforelectricity,ontheother,”saysHans

KristianDanielsen,SeniorVicePresident,BusinessDevelopmentandSalesEnablementDirector,

EnergySystems,DNV.

Thisreportshowshowtheindustryispursuingopportunitieswhilealsoadaptingtothisnew,

morecomplex,fragmented,andgeopolitical

environment–onewhereresilience,pragmatism,andflexibilitymattermorethanever.

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1

NEWPATTERNSIN

THEENERGYINDUSTRY

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Theglobalenergyindustryin2026is

anythingbutuniform.Therearegreat

contraststobefoundacrossregionsandsectors—avarietyofphases,directions,andspeeds—drivenbydiverseblendsofopportunity,policy,risk,andenergyphilosophy.

Overtheyears,oursurveyhasfrequently

highlighteddifferencesinsentimentandoutlook

acrossthemajorenergyindustrysub-sectors(oil

andgas,renewables,andelectricalpower).What

standsoutoverthepasttwoyears,however,isa

growingdivergencebyregion—withgeography

nowshapingoutcomesasmuchas,ifnotmorethan,sectordynamics.

FIGURE1.1

Wideningregionalgapsingrowthconfidence,drivenbyEurope’sdecline

85%

80%

75%

70%

65%

60%

55%

20222023202420252026

EuropeAsiaPacificNorthAmericaLatinAmericaMiddleEastandAfrica

Forexample,overalloptimismforgrowthinthe

energyindustryhasfallento63%,downfrom69%justtwelvemonthsago.Butthereare21percentagepointsbetweenthemostoptimisticregion(the

MiddleEast,77%)andtheleast(Europe,56%).Itwassimilarlastyear(20points),butin2024therange

onlyspanned11points.Thisreflectsgreater

divergenceinpolicydirection,economicforces,andriskequationsacrossregions.

Thedifferencebetweenregions

ConfidenceamongEuropeanenergyrespondentshasfallensharplyoverthepastyear—from68%to56%—drivingmuchoftheoverallfallinoptimism.

Europeanenergycompaniesofallkindsface

significantchallenges,includinglacklustreeconomicgrowth,higherenergycosts,weakerindustrial

competitiveness,andpolicyuncertainty.The

progressionoftheseissues—mostofwhichare

beingcompoundedbytheIranwar—hasincreasedtheriskandcomplexityinvolvedinfutureplanningandinvestmentdecisionsforallenergyassets.

Otherpartsoftheworldhaveaverydifferent

outlook.Despitefallingbackfromthesky-highlevelsoflastyear(84%),theMiddleEastandAfricaremainsthemostconfidentregion,with77%optimistic.

Respondentswillbelessoptimisticfollowingthe

outbreakofthewarinIran,buttheMiddleEast,inparticular,isaccustomedtoadaptingtogeopoliticalturmoil,andthesenumberssuggestthatconfidencewillbouncebackquicklyiftheconflictdoesnot

lasttoolong.

“TheMiddleEasthasenteredaperiodofrapid

growthinrenewables.Thebuild-outisdramatic,underpinnedbyabundantsunlight,availableland,anddeeppoolsofcapitalfromsovereignwealthfunds.Also,therearefewpermittingbarriersandlimitedpublicopposition,whichallowsprojects

tomovequickly,”saysJanZschommler,MarketAreaManager,MiddleEast&Africa,Energy

Systems,DNV.

Atthesametime,theregionretainsstructurallycompetitiveoilandgasresources—notonly

low-cost,butincreasinglylower-carbonbarrelsthatareattractivetoexportmarketsinAsia.Asdomesticpowergenerationshiftstowardcheaperrenewables,morehydrocarbonsarefreedupforexport.“The

combinationofcompetitivefossilfuels,acceleratingcleanenergydeployment,andgridinvestment

createsafundamentallydifferentsenseofoptimismcomparedwithenergy-importingregions,”

saysZschommler.

MorecertaintyaboutchallengesforUSrenewables

Therehasbeenamodestincreaseinoptimism

amongNorthAmericanrespondentsoverthe

pastyear,largelydrivenbyastrongrecoveryin

confidenceamongUSrenewablesrespondents.

Thisisperhapssurprisinginthewakeofnumerouscutstocleanenergyincentivesoverthepastyear,whichareexpectedtoslowthecountry’semissionsreductionjourneyby

aboutfiveyears

.

*Percentagesshownetoptimism,whichisthesumof‘somewhatoptimistic’and‘highlyoptimistic’aboutthegrowthprospectsfor(theirpartof)theenergyindustryintheyearahead.

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However,atthetimeoflastyear’ssurvey—only

monthsintoPresidentTrump’ssecondterm—

optimismamongUSrenewablesrespondentswaslowerthaneverbefore.Itwasclearthatpolicy

supportwouldbelimited,butthefullimplicationsforthesectorwereunknown.

“Atthistimelastyear,itwasveryuncertainfor

renewablesinNorthAmerica,specificallythekindsofchangesthatwouldbemadetotaxpolicyintheUS.Buttheoutcomewasnotnearlyasnegative

asitcouldhavebeen,andthereisaclearpathwaytobuildprojectsthroughtheperiodfrom2026to2028,”saysMarionHill,ExecutiveVicePresidentandRegionalDirector,NorthAmerica,Energy

Systems,DNV.

Ineffect,electricitydemandgrowthandshifts

inpolicyhavepushedtheUSintoan“allofthe

above”eraofenergyinfrastructuredevelopment.Hillbelieveswind,solar,andstoragewillcontinuetogrowstrongly,eventhoughnewforeign-entityregulationsandtariffsmakeitchallenging.“Itisnotaneasymarketbyanymeans,butwestillexpect

recordamountsofgigawattsofrenewableprojectstobebuiltoverthenextfewyears,alongwithmoregas-firedpowergeneration,geothermal,

andnuclear.”

ManagingtheAIpowercurve

AIisdrivingrapidgrowthindatacentrepoweruse,butitsoverallimpactremainsmanageable.By2040,datacentreswilluseabout

5%of

globalelectricity

—3%forAIand2%forgeneralcomputing—withparticularlyhighsharesin

NorthAmerica(16%ofallelectricity,12%

poweringAI).AIworkloads,suchastraininglargelanguagemodelsorrunning

image-generationsystems,typicallyrelyon

power-intensivegraphicsprocessingunits(GPUs),whileconventionalcomputingtaskssuchaswebhosting,filestorage,enterpriseapplications,andstreamingservicesrunmainlyonstandardcentralprocessingunits(CPUs).

Afterthecurrentsurge,demandgrowthis

expectedtobecomemorelinearasefficiency

improves.However,whenlookingatthenext

fiveyears,AIwillbethemaindriverofelectricitydemandinNorthAmerica(whileEVchargingandcoolingarethedominantgrowthcontributorsinothercountries).

“TheUShasgonefromflatelectricitydemand

overthelastfourdecadestoexperiencingasurge

inelectricitydemandasmoredatacentrescomeonline,”saysMarionHill.“Thecountry’senergysystemwasnotreadyforthis,andtheresultisanenergyaffordability,reliability,andaccessibilitychallengethatisforcingmajortransformation.”

Akeyelementofthistransformationisthat

hyperscalers(i.e.companiessuchasAmazon,

Microsoft,and

Google

,whichrunenormousandrapidlyexpandingglobalcloudinfrastructure)areevolvingintopowerproducers.Hyperscalersandtraditionalgridoperatorswillincreasinglyneed

tocollaboratetomanageflexibilityandreserverequirements.

Datacentresoperateusingadvancedpower

electronicswhichmeanstheycan(technically)respondveryquicklytogridconditions.“Datacentresareinverter-basedloadsandsothey

cansupportthegridonvoltageandfrequency,”saysMarionHill.“Withtherightframework,

theseassetscanserveanimportantroleforgridoperators,helpingtosupportthegridwithdemandresponse,stability,and

renewableintegration.”

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Chinacontinuesvastcleanenergyexpansion

ChangesinUSfederalpolicyareonlyexpected

tohave

amodestimpact

ontheglobalenergy

transition.Partofthereasonisthatmostotherpartsoftheworldhavenotchangedtheirpolicies.Most

importantly,Chinaiscontinuingitsrapidshiftto

electricvehicles,record-settingrolloutofrenewableenergyinfrastructure,andmanufacturingdominanceformanycleanenergytechnologies.

Lastyear,itwasestimatedthatcloseto

three-quarters(bygigawatts)

ofallwindandsolar

projectsgloballywereinChina,andChina’sclean

technologyexportsareacceleratingdecarbonizationeffortsglobally.

“WhenmarketsliketheUSpullback,Chinaisveryquicktofillthevoid,”saysSimenMoxnes,SeniorAdvisor,NewEnergySystemsatEquinor.“Chinaisforgingaheadwithcleanenergywhilehelpingtodrivecostsdownglobally.”

Theall-energyera

Whileconfidencelevelsamongtheregionsare

diverging,theoppositeishappeningtosome

extentamongindustrysectors.Fiveyearsago,wereporteda29-percentagepointgapbetweenthemostconfident(renewables,87%)andtheleast(oilandgas,58%).Today,thatrangeisdownto12,aftercontractingtojust1pointlastyear.

Thiscloseralignmentbetweensectorsreflects

anotherimportanttrend—theshiftfromprioritizingdecarbonizationtoamorebalancedfocusacrossallthreepointsoftheenergytrilemma:energysecurity,affordability,andsustainability.Thishaschanged

thedynamicsoftheenergytransition,andwithit,thestrategicfocusofmanyenergyindustry

organizations.

Oilandgasandrenewablesarebothlessconfidentthanlastyear,butthemajorityinbothsectors(59%and62%respectively)remainoptimistic.The

electricalpowersectorismorebuoyant,with

optimismrisingfrom66%to71%overtheyear.

Twopotentialreasonsforthis:thelong-termshift

towardselectricalpowerisdrivinginvestmentand

modernizationopportunities,andthepowerindustry

FIGURE1.2

Confidenceingrowthisconvergingacrossenergysectors

20222023202420252026

AllrespondentsOilandgasElectricalpowerRenewables

90%

85%

80%

75%

70%

65%

60%

55%

ismoreinsulatedfromtheprice,politics,and

policy-drivenvolatilitythathasamajorimpactonoutlookinbothrenewablesandoilandgas.

Gridsstruggletokeeppace

Electricitysupplyisexpectedto

growby55%

over

thenext15years,withrenewablesgeneratinga

rapidlyincreasingshare.Windandsolar(withand

withoutstorage)areexpectedtoprovide

32%ofthe

world’selectricity

by2030,and50%by2040.

Thatforecastwouldbehigher(and/orquicker)ifthepaceofpowergridexpansionandmodernization

couldbeincreased:77%ofrenewablesrespondents,and73%ofelectricalpowerrespondents,saypowergridinfrastructurecannotyetadequatelyconnect

sourcesofrenewableenergytoareasofhighdemand.

Thisisparticularlyacutewherepowerdemand

andrenewableenergyarebothgrowingrapidly.

TheUS,forexample,needsamassiveincreasein

electricitytransmissioninfrastructurebutthisisonlyproceedingat

1/5therate

requiredtokeeppace

withdemand.Theproblemisnotthesameinall

partsofthecountry.“Theplaceswherewe’llseethemosttransmissionlinesbuiltareplaceslikeTexas,

whereyou’reoperatingwithinasinglejurisdictionanddon’tneedapprovalfrommultiplestates,”

saysKelseyHallahan,SeniorDirectorofMarket

IntelligenceattheAmericanCleanPower

Association.“Whenyouhavetocrossseveral

jurisdictionsbetweengenerationandload,projectsaremorelikelytorunaground.”

*Percentagesshownetoptimism,whichisthesumof‘somewhatoptimistic’and‘highlyoptimistic’aboutthegrowthprospectsfor(theirpartof)theenergyindustryintheyearahead.

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Persistentbarriersforrenewables

Gridcongestionandbuildoutdelaysareproblemsworldwide,anddistributionnetworksarejustas

challengingtoexpandandmodernizeas

transmissionnetworksinsomeregions.Indeed,91%ofelectricalpowerrespondentssaythereisanurgentneedforgreaterinvestmentinthepowergrid.

“Transmissionanddistributioninfrastructureisoftenthebiggestbarriertoprogress,”saysSimenMoxnes.“Forexample,theUKisdoingwellatdecarbonizingelectricity,butelectricityisonlyabout20%offinal

energyusethere.Thenextstepisdecarbonizing

transport–electricinsteadoffossilmobility–andthatrequiresmassivegridexpansion.Electrificationofresidentialheatingwouldpushthegrideven

more.Othercountries,likeGermany,faceeventougherchallengesinbuildingnewpower

infrastructure,sothiswillbeanissueinmanycountriesandformanyyears.”

Thereareotherheadwindsforrenewables

developers.Infact,70%ofrenewablesrespondentssaythat,morethananyotherfactor,permitting

delaysareslowingtheexpansionofrenewables.Often,thesedelaysarecausedbylengthy

sub-processes,localopposition,orlegalchallenges,andthesearelinkedtooneofthesimplestbut

mostimportantdifferencesbetweenfossilfuelsandrenewables:theamountofspacetheyrequire.“AgastreatmentplantontheNorwegiancoastoccupies

lessthanonesquarekilometreandhandlesathirdofNorway’sexportedgas,”saysMoxnes.“Toproduce

thesameprimaryenergywithoffshorewind,you

wouldneedaround20,000squarekilometres.That’swhyareauseissuchabigdiscussion.Renewable

energyrequiresmuchmorespace,andsocietiesstrugglewiththetrade-offs.”

Sentimentdrivenbyuncertaintyandgeopoliticalrisk

Inadditiontoindustrysentiment,oursurvey

respondentsalsosharetheiroutlookfortheirownorganizations.Thisyear,theseresultscontinue

agradualdownwardtrend,withrespondentsreportinglowerconfidenceintheirown

organization’sprospectsfortheyearahead,

withonlyhalfexpectingtomeetprofittargets.

Manydescribethecurrentenvironmentasacombinationofthefollowingfactors:

•Externaluncertaintyisunusuallyhigh(especiallygeopolitics,wars,tradetensions)

•Policyand/orregulationsareunstable,

inconsistent,orunpredictable,especiallyarounddecarbonization

•Somefundamentalsremainsupportive

(electrification,long-termcontracts,increasingelectricitydemandinmostregions)

•Butnear-termexecution,investment,andprofitabilityareconstrainedbydelays,costpressures,andriskaversion.

FIGURE1.3

Confidenceinownprospectsweakens,withfewerexpectingtoreachprofittargets

75%

70%

65%

60%

55%

50%

20222023202420252026

OverallprospectsReachingrevenuetargetsReachingprofittargets

*Percentagesshownetoptimism,whichisthesumof‘somewhatoptimistic’and‘highlyoptimistic’abouttheiroverallprospectsandtheirabilitytoreachrevenueandprofittargetsintheyearahead.

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Thoseoptimisticab