蔚来4Q25实现季度盈利转正规模效应驱动盈利能力改善

财务报表分析和预测主要财务指标20252026E2027E2028E利润表（百万元）20252026E2027E2028E成长能力营业收入87488129111151781164130营业收入33.10%47.58%17.56%8.14%营业成本75572107078125636134409营业利润-33.69%-97.27%993.90%-27.62%毛利11916220332614429721归属母公司净利润31.28%96.92%-778.59%40.00%营业开支26693224373056232919获利能力其中：SG&A16088127831821421337毛利率13.62%17.06%17.23%18.11%研发费用10605100651308512430净利率-17.80%-0.37%-2.77%-1.54%其他费用0-412-736-848ROE-374.34%-3.50%-17.21%-7.91%EBIT-14777-404-4418-31980.050.010.050.010.080.05偿债能力减：财务费用8857639841185资产负债率89.80%86.95%83.74%81.89%营业利润-14901-558-4091-2511净负债比率0.21-0.84-1.17-1.27其他非经营性损益8092-855流动比率0.92税前利润-14821-466-4098-2456速动比率0.620.750.870.95所得税12243420营运能力净利润-14943-470-4132-2477总资产周转率0.700.760.750.73少数股东损益62897950应收账款周转率62.7462.7462.7462.74归属母公司所有者净利润-15571-479-4210-2526应付账款周转率1.421.421.421.42EBITDA-14777646120432734每股指标（元）EPS（元）-6.38-0.20-1.72-1.03EPS-6.38-0.20-1.72-1.03每股营收35.8452.9062.1867.24每股经营现金-4.057.204.053.02资产负债表（百万元）20252026E2027E2028E每股净资产5.209.1013.5616.64货币资金11274372386160078363估值比率应收账款及应收票据16078237282789430163P/E————存货8531120871418215173P/S1.030.740.630.58其它流动资产19600289243400336770EV/Sales1.060.600.370.27流动资产合计76633123791159854182841固定资产25828251622283020964权益性投资0000现金流量表（百万元）20252026E2027E2028E商誉及无形资产1174111042104139846净利润-15571-479-4210-2526其他非流动资产7522752275227522折旧摊销0686564625932非流动资产合计47768465034369241379少数股东权益62897950资产总计124401170295203546224220营运资金变动及其他50561118275453908短期借款19486287563380536556经营活动现金流-98871757798757363应付票据及应付账款53310755358862694815应交税金439648762824资本支出2224-630-1020-2023其它流动负债19486287563380536556其他投资-8451000流动负债合计78583109946128329138480投资活动现金流-6227-627-1018-2020长期借款8626136261762620626其它长期负债24500245002450024500债权募资-487500040003000非流动负债合计33126381264212645126股权募资0100001500010000负债总计111709148072170455183606其他-1768-1104-856-35股本0200500700融资活动现金流-2255138961814412965归属于母公司所有者权益4159136802447031944现金净流量-16473259642436216763少数股东权益8533854286218670期末净现金余额11274372386160078363负债和所有者权益合计124401170295203546224220

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加：务入 762 609 1312 1871备注：（1）2026311日；（2）APPENDIX1Summary4Q25SeesFirstQuarterlyProfit,ScaleEffectsDriveProfitabilityImprovementNIOturnedprofitablein4Q25forthefirsttimeonaquarterlybasis,withscaleeffectsdrivinganotableimprovementinprofitability.ThecompanyreportedrevenueofRMB34.65bnin4Q25,+75.9%YoYand+59%QoQ,significantlyabovetheBBGconsensusofRMB28.84bn.VehiclesalesrevenuereachedRMB31.6bn,up80.9%YoY.Vehicledeliveriestotaled124.8kunitsinthequarter,+71.7%YoY,markinganewquarterlyhigh.Profitabilitycontinuedtoimprove,withoverallgrossmarginat17.5%(+5.8pptsYoY)andvehiclegrossmarginat18.1%(+5.0pptsYoY).Scaleeffectstogetherwithproductmixoptimizationdroveameaningfulimprovementinmargins.ThecompanyreportedNon-GAAPoperatingprofitofRMB1.25bnandNon-GAAPnetprofitofRMB727mn,asignificantturnaroundfromlossesayearago.Resultsnotonlyexceededmarketexpectationsbyawidemarginbutalsomarkedthecompany’sfirstquarterlyadjustedprofit.Deliveriesandprofitabilityrecoveryintandem;full-yearprofitabilitytargetremainsambitiousManagementmaintainsaconstructiveoutlookon2026deliveriesandprofitability,guidingfor40–50%YoYdeliverygrowthfortheyear.WhileoverallpassengervehicledemandinChinamayseeslightfluctuations,managementexpectsNEVpenetrationtocontinuerising,particularlyinthehigh-endBEVsegment.IntheRMB300k+pricesegment,BEVsalesincreased58%YoYin2025,whileEREVsalesdeclined4%YoY.BEVpenetrationinthepremiumsegmentincreasedfrom14%in4Q24to27%in4Q25.Fromaproductmixperspective,thecompanyexpectsahighercontributionfromlargeSUVstosupportprofitability,withES8grossmarginexceeding20%in4Q25.Managementexpects1Qgrossmargintoremainbroadlyinlinewith4Qlevels.Despitenear-termcostpressuresfromchips,copper,andlithiumcarbonate,supplychainoptimizationandproductmiximprovementsareexpectedtokeepfull-yearmarginswithinareasonablerange.ThecompanymaintainsitstargetofachievingNon-GAAPoperatingprofitabilityforthefullyear.However,webelieveachievingthisgoalremainschallenging,requiringsustained4Q-levelmargins,stabledeliveryexecution,andlimitedvolatilityinBOMandoperatingexpenses.Profitvisibilityremainslimitedatthisstage.TechnologyupgradesandnewproductcycletoexpandproductmatrixNIOisenteringadenseproductcyclein2026,withtechnologyupgradesrollingoutalongsidenewmodellaunches.ExistingmodelssuchasES8andL90remaininstronglifecyclephases,withstableordermomentumintheseasonallyweak1Q.TheupdatedL90isexpectedtolaunchin2Q,addinglidarandNIO’sin-housechip,withcomputingpowerupgradedto~1000TOPS,alongsideamajorNIOWorldModelupdatetoenhanceADcapabilities.Onnewproducts,ES9willbeunveiledonApril9withpre-ordersopening,positionedasaRMB500k–600kpremiumBEVSUV.ONVOL80willbelaunchedinlateAprilanddeliveredlaterin2Q,targetingfamily-orientedscenarios.In3Q,thecompanywillalsolaunchalargefive-seatSUVbasedonthenewES8platform.Overall,thelineupwillcovertheRMB200k–600kpricerange,focusingonBEV,largeSUVs,andintelligentfeatures,withlimitedoverlapwithexistingproducts.Managementbelievesthatleveragingplatformtechnologyleadershipandcomponent/productionlinereuse,newmodelscouldsupportdeliverygrowthwhilemaintaininghealthymargins.EarningsForecast&ValuationCombiningthecompany’spipeline,whichfocusesonfiveSUVmodels,andthestartofastrongproductcycle,weexpectdeliveriestoreachapproximately432kunitsin2026.Wereviseourrevenueforecastsfor2026–2028toRmb129.1bn/Rmb151.8bn/Rmb164.1bn(+5%/+12%/newlyintroduced).Basedonvaluationlevelsofcomparablecompaniesbothdomesticallyandinternationally,weassignthecompanya2026EV/Salesmultipleof1.3x,implyingatargetpriceofHK$51.12.Consideringthatthecompanyisenteringastrongproductcycle,webelievethisvaluationrangeisreasonable.ThetargetpriceassumesanexchangerateofHK$1=Rmb0.9.OurprevioustargetpricewasHK$50.02,alsobasedon1.3x2026EV/SaleswithanexchangerateassumptionofHK$1=Rmb0.9111.Weraiseourtargetpriceby2%andmaintaina“NEUTRAL”rating.RisksNewmodelordersorcapacityrampabove/belowexpectations;marketcompetitionintensifying/easing;chargingandbattery-swapinfrastructureexpansionfaster/slowerthanexpected.APPENDIX2ESGCommentsEnvironmental:NIOhasbeenproactiveinitsenvironmentalinitiatives,particularlyincarbonreductionwithintheintelligentelectricvehicleindustry.In2022,theyachieveda98%rateofusingrecyclablepackagingforvehicletransportationandestablishedanInternalCarbonPricingmechanismforcorporatecarbonreduction.Social:Thecompanyhasintegrateda"SustainableDevelopment"moduleinitspartnerevaluationandauditprocesses,withover300vehiclepartspartnersparticipatingintheirannualESGspecialriskassessmentin2022.ThisdemonstratesNIO'scommitmenttoenhancingsustainabledevelopmentperformancecollaboratively.Governance:NIOmaintainshighstandardsinbusinessethicsandconductsitsoperationsincompliancewithapplicablelaws,rules,andregulations.Theircorporategovernancepoliciesaredesignedtoprotectshareholderinterestsandpromoteresponsiblebusinesspracticesandcorporatecitizenship.附录APPENDIX重要信息披露本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司(HTIRL)，HaitongSecuritiesIndiaPrivateLimited(HSIPL)，HaitongInternationalJapanK.K.(HTIJKK)和海通国际证券有限公司(HTISCL)的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团(HTISG)各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。IMPORTANTDISCLOSURESThisresearchreportisdistributedbyHaitongInternational,aglobalbrandnamefortheequityresearchteamsofHaitongInternationalResearchLimited(“HTIRL”),HaitongSecuritiesIndiaPrivateLimited(“HSIPL”),HaitongInternationalJapanK.K.(“HTIJKK”),HaitongInternationalSecuritiesCompanyLimited(“HTISCL”),andanyothermemberswithintheHaitongInternationalSecuritiesGroupofCompanies(“HTISG”),eachauthorizedtoengageinsecuritiesactivitiesinitsrespectivejurisdiction.HTIRL分析师认证AnalystCertification:我，王沈昱，在此保证（i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。我和我的家属（我已经告知他们）将不会在本研究30个自然日内交易此研究报告所讨论目标公司的证券。I,OscarWangcertifythatitheviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportaccuratelyreflectmypersonalviewsaboutanyorallofthesubjectcompaniesorissuersreferredtointhisresearchandiinopartofmycompensationwas,isorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportandthatIincludingmembersofmyhouseholdhavenofinancialinterestinthesecurityorsecuritiesofthesubjectcompaniesdiscussedIandmyhousehold,whomIhavealreadynotifiedofthis,willnotdealinortradeanysecuritiesinrespectoftheissuerthatIreviewwithin30calendardaysaftertheresearchreportispublished.我，王凯，在此保证（i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。我和我的家属（我已经告知他们）将不会在本研究30个自然日内交易此研究报告所讨论目标公司的证券。I,KaiWangcertifythat(i)theviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportaccuratelyreflectmypersonalviewsaboutanyorallofthesubjectcompaniesorissuersreferredtointhisresearchandiinopartofmycompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisresearchreport;andthatI(includingmembersofmyhousehold)havenofinancialinterestinthesecurityorsecuritiesofthesubjectcompaniesdiscussed.Iandmyhousehold,whomIhavealreadynotifiedofthis,willnotdealinortradeanysecuritiesinrespectoftheissuerthatIreviewwithin30calendardaysaftertheresearchreportispublished.利益冲突披露ConflictofInterestDisclosures海通国际及其某些关联公司可从事投资银行业务和/或对本研究中的特定股票或公司进行做市或持有自营头寸。就本研究报告而言，以下是有关该等关系的披露事项（以下披露不能保证及时无遗漏，如需了解及时全面信息，请发邮件至ERD-Disclosure@）HTIandsomeofitsaffiliatesmayengageininvestmentbankingand/orserveasamarketmakerorholdproprietarytradingpositionsofcertainstocksorcompaniesinthisresearchreport.Asfarasthisresearchreportisconcerned,thefollowingarethedisclosuremattersrelatedtosuchrelationship(Asthefollowingdisclosuredoesnotensuretimelinessandcompleteness,pleasesendanemailtoERD-Disclosure@iftimelyandcomprehensiveinformationisneeded).9866.HK目前或过去12个月内是国泰海通的投资银行业务客户。9866.HKis/wasaninvestmentbankclientsofGuotaiHaitongcurrentlyorwithinthepast12months.国泰海通在过去12个月中获得对9866.HK提供投资银行服务的报酬。GuotaiHaitongreceivedinthepast12monthscompensationforinvestmentbankingservicesprovidedto9866.HK.评级定义（从2020年7月1日开始执行）：海通国际（以下简称“HTI”）采用相对评级系统来为投资者推荐我们覆盖的公司：优于大市、中性或弱于大市。投资者应仔细阅读HTI的评级定义。并且HTI发布分析师观点的完整信息，投资者应仔细阅读全文而非仅看评级。在任何情况下，分析师的评级和研究都不能作为投资建议。投资者的买卖股票的决策应基于各自情况（比如投资者的现有持仓）以及其他因素。分析师股票评级优于大市12-1810%以上，基准定义如下中性，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数变化不大，基准定义如下。根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则，我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。弱于大市12-1810%以上，基准定义如下各地股票基准指数：日本–TOPIX,韩国–KOSPI,台湾–TAIEX,印度–Nifty100,美国–SP500;其他所有中国概念股–MSCIChina.RatingsDefinitions(from1Jul2020):HaitongInternationalusesarelativeratingsystemusingOutperform,Neutral,orUnderperformforrecommendingthestockswecovertoinvestors.InvestorsshouldcarefullyreadthedefinitionsofallratingsusedinHaitongInternationalResearch.Inaddition,sinceHaitongInternationalResearchcontainsmorecompleteinformationconcerningtheanalyst'sviews,investorsshouldcarefullyreadHaitongInternationalResearch,initsentirety,andnotinferthecontentsfromtheratingalone.Inanycase,ratings(orresearch)shouldnotbeusedorrelieduponasinvestmentadvice.Aninvestor'sdecisiontobuyorsellastockshoulddependonindividualcircumstances(suchastheinvestor'sexistingholdings)andotherconsiderations.AnalystStockRatingsOutperform:Thestock’stotalreturnoverthenext12-18monthsisexpectedtoexceedthereturnofitsrelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.Neutral:Thestock’stotalreturnoverthenext12-18monthsisexpectedtobeinlinewiththereturnofitsrelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.ForpurposesonlyofFINRA/NYSEratingsdistributionrules,ourNeutralratingfallsintoaholdratingcategory.Underperform:Thestock’stotalreturnoverthenext12-18monthsisexpectedtobebelowthereturnofitsrelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.Benchmarksforeachstock’slistedregionareasfollows:Japan–TOPIX,Korea–KOSPI,Taiwan–TAIEX,India–Nifty100,US–SP500;forallotherChina-conceptstocks–MSCIChina. 截至2025年12月31日海通国际股票研究评级分布 截至2025年9月30日海通国际股票研究评级分布 优于大市中性弱于大市优于大市中性弱于大市(持有)(持有)海通国际股票研究覆盖率 6.0%0.1%92.3%7.5%0.2%投资银行客户* 3.0%*在每个评级类别里投资银行客户所占的百分比。4.0%0.0%3.3%3.9%0.0%上述分布中的买入，中性和卖出分别对应我们当前优于大市，中性和落后大市评级。只有根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则，我们才将中性评级划入持有这一类别。请注意在上表中不包含非评级的股票。此前的评级系统定义（直至2020年6月30日）：买入，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数涨幅在10%以上，基准定义如下中性，未来12-18FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则，我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。卖出，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数跌幅在10%以上，基准定义如下各地股票基准指数：日本–TOPIX,韩国–KOSPI,台湾–TAIEX,印度–Nifty100;其他所有中国概念股–MSCIChina.HaitongInternationalEquityResearchRatingsDistribution, HaitongInternationalEquityResearchRatingsDistribution, asofDecember31,2025 asofSeptember30,2025 OutperformNeutralUnderperformOutperformNeutralUnderperformHTIEquityResearchCoverage93.9%6.0%0.1%92.3%7.5%0.2%IBclients*3.0%4.0%0.0%3.3%3.9%0.0%*Percentageofinvestmentbankingclientsineachratingcategory.BUY,Neutral,andSELLintheabovedistributioncorrespondtoourcurrentratingsofOutperform,Neutral,andUnderperform.ForpurposesonlyofFINRA/NYSEratingsdistributionrules,ourNeutralratingfallsintoaholdratingcategory.PleasenotethatstockswithanNRdesignationarenotincludedinthetableabove.Previousratingsystemdefinitions(until30Jun2020):BUY:Thestock’stotalreturnoverthenext12-18monthsisexpectedtoexceedthereturnofitsrelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.NEUTRAL:Thestock’stotalreturnoverthenext12-18monthsisexpectedtobeinlinewiththereturnofitsrelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.ForpurposesonlyofFINRA/NYSEratingsdistributionrules,ourNeutralratingfallsintoaholdratingcategory.SELL:Thestock’stotalreturnoverthenext12-18monthsisexpectedtobebelowthereturnofitsrelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.Benchmarksforeachstock’slistedregionareasfollows:Japan–TOPIX,Korea–KOSPI,Taiwan–TAIEX,India–Nifty100;forallotherChina-conceptstocks–MSCIChina.海通国际非评级研究：海通国际发布计量、筛选或短篇报告，并在报告中根据估值和其他指标对股票进行排名，或者基于可能的估值倍数提出建议价格。这种排名或建议价格并非为了进行股票评级、提出目标价格或进行基本面估值，而仅供参考使用。HaitongInternationalNon-RatedResearch:HaitongInternationalpublishesquantitative,screeningorshortreportswhichmayrankstocksaccord