MorganStanley摩根士丹利战略更新

StrategicUpdateJamesP.Gorman,ChairmanandChiefExecutiveOfficerJanuary17,2017Notice2Theinformationprovidedhereinmayincludecertainnon-GAAPfinancialmeasures.ThereconciliationofsuchmeasurestotheparableGAAPfiguresareincludedinthispresentation,orinpany’sAnnualReportonForm10-K,DefinitiveProxyStatement,QuarterlyReportsonForm10-Qandthepany’sCurrentReportsonForm8-K,asapplicable,includinganyamendmentsthereto,whichareailableonmorganstanley.Thispresentationmaycontainforward-lookingstatementsincludingtheattainmentofcertainfinancialandothertargetsandgoals.Youarecautionednottoplaceunduerelianceonforward-lookingstatements,whichspeakonlyasofthedateonwhichtheyaremade,whichreflectmanagement’scurrentestimates,projections,expectationsorbeliefsandwhicharesubjecttorisksanduncertaintiesthatmaycauseactualresultstodiffermaterially.Thepanydoesnotundertaketoupdatetheforward-lookingstatementstoreflecttheimpactofcircumstancesoreventsthatmayariseafterthedateofforward-lookingstatements.Foradiscussionofrisksanduncertaintiesthatmayaffectthefutureresultsofthepany,pleaseseethepany’smostrecentAnnualReportonForm10-K,QuarterlyReportsonForm10-QandCurrentReportsonForm8-K,asapplicable,whichareailableonmorganstanley.Thispresentationisnotanoffertobuyorsellanysecurity.TheEndNotesareanintegralpartofthisPresentation.Seeslides16-18forinformationrelatedtothefinancialmetricsinthispresentation.Pleasenotethispresentationisailableatmorganstanley.MarktoMarket:2017StrategicObjectives(1)1Streamline:$1BnExpenseReduction2pleteFixedIeRestructuringandMaintainRevenueFootprint3 WealthMgmt.Pre-TaxMargin(2):23–25%4 IncreaseCapitalReturntoShareholders5 ROE:9–11%2016StatusOnTrackfor$1BninExpenseReductionby2017RetainedRevenueFootprint,with25%HeadcountReductionandReducedResourcesAchieved22%Margin,DespiteTransactionalRevenueHeadwindsReceivedNon-ObjectiontoIncreaseDividend(+33%)andBuyback(+40%)(3)OngoingObjective32016Performance:ProgressTowards9–11%ROE(1)(2)20152016Earnings:$4.7Bng.CE:$67Bn=7.0%ROE(3)Earnings:$5.5Bng.CE:$69Bn=8.0%ROE(4)ROE:9−

11%42017TargetPressAdvantagesinBusinessesofTraditionalStrengthDeepenRelationshipstoGrowWealthManagementDriveConsistentProfitGrowthinInvestmentManagementContinuetoReturnCapitaltoShareholdersOpportunitiesforFutureOperationalImprovements1 MaintainExpenseDisciplineandFullyRealizeStreamlineSings2345DeliveronTargetROE512017&BeyondExpectContinuedOperatingLeveragetoAchieve2017ExpenseEfficiencyRatioTargetof74.0%MaintainExpenseDisciplineandFullyRealizeStreamlineSingsFocusedonOperatingLeverageFirmRevenues,ex-DVA($Bn)(1)34.534.620152016GrewPBTby12%7.9onFlatRevenues8.816.0Maintained15.9pensationDiscipline10.6ReducedNon-9.9pensationExpensesby~$700MM77.2%74.5%ExpenseEfficiencyRatio,ex-DVA(2):Pre-TaxProfitpensationExpenseNonpensationExpense60.60.80.80.80.5201220132016LeadingInvestmentBankingFranchiseContinuedStrengthinAdvisoryUpsidefromNormalizationofUnderwriting2.02.12.43.13.120122013201420152016IndustrypletedM&AVolumes($Tn)(1)2IPOs2014 2015OtherEquity&Equity-LinkedIndustryEquityUnderwritingVolumes($Tn)(2)19.4%32.9%8.8%8.3%MorganStanleyRetainingMarketShare2016:#2InGlobalAnnounced&pletedM&A2016:#2inGlobalIPOs#2inGlobalEquity&EquityLinked7OneManagementTeamLeveragingBestofGroupTechnologyAcrossallProductsandRegionsSharingandOptimizingResourcesSales&TradingStrategicPrioritiesSALES&TRADINGMaintain#1GlobalRevenueGrowWalletShareDeepenPrimeBrokerageFootprintMonetizeRelationshipsinFlowTradingFurtherBuildAsiaFranchiseShiftingpetitiveLandscapeMaintainHistoricalRevenueFootprintCapitalizeonClientMomentumFocusonStrengthofTeamandDepthofBenchIncreaseTradingVelocityShiftingpetitiveLandscapeEQUITIESFIXEDIE282417339MonetizingStrengthAcrossEquitiesFixedIeRestructuringinProgress36424245412012201320142015ProForma9M16AnnualizedEquitySales&TradingTotalWallet,ex-DVA($Bn)(1)(2)(3)117158 ($41Bn) ($78Bn)0.60.94Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16FixedIeandmodities,ex-Lending($Bn)(6)(7)(8)FixedIeSales&TradingRevenues,ex-DVA($Bn)(5)Sales&TradingPositionedforMarketOpportunities#1Globally3YearsRunningGainedSharein2014,2015and2016OpportunitytoDeployBalanceSheetProfitablyAcrosstheFranchisewithStrongReturnsClientDemandforContent,Liquidity,andFinancingSolutionsRestructuring

1.5 1.51.33Q15 4Q16ProFormaAdvancedRWA3Q15 4Q16ProFormaSLRExposure17%20%(4)939%22%2016(2)ProForma2010ExpandedMarginsAllowforReinvestmentsintoProfitableGrowthWealthManagementPoisedtoGrowMergedwithSmithBarneyToAchieveScaleCapturedMergerCostEconomicsBuildingBankInfrastructureAnnuitizingRevenues`WealthManagementHasAchievedSeveralCriticalMilestonesSincetheJVFranchiseGrowth2017Pre-TaxMargin(1)Targetat23-25%,FocusonGrowingPre-TaxEarnings11.915.42016ProForma2010(2)1.13.42016Revenues($Bn)

Pre-TaxEarnings($Bn) Pre-TaxMargin(%)(2)ProForma2010108.88.68.73.13.23.211.911.811.933.93.33.12014 2015 2016TransactionalRevenue($Bn)(1)WealthManagementRevenueHeadwindsAbatingUpsideFromIncreasedRetailEngagementContinuedExpenseLeverageAdditionalTailwindFromRisingRatesTotalExpenses($Bn)2.33.03.5201420152016NetInterestIe($Bn)2014 2015pensation/Ratio(2)2016Nonpensation56.9%56.5%59.3%MaintainedExpenseBasewithGrowingRevenues11OperatingLeveragePersistsWealthManagementDigitalStrategyDigitalToolsEnhanceClientExperience&CapabilitiesAttractNewCustomerBaseBeingBuiltThroughaNetworkofBest-of-BreedPartnershipsModernizedBranchSystemwithdigitalself-servicetodriveFAefficiencyModernizeBranchSystem&FAOperations1PredictiveAnalyticsandMachineLearningtohelpdelivertimely,relevantmunicationsthroughomni-channelcapabilities(mobile,social,video,text,chat)DriveClientEngagement2DigitalProductsandChannelstoattractclientswhopreferdigitalinvesting,supportedbyMorganStanley’splatformTargetNewClientSegment3312SummaryMarginExpansionandGrowthOpportunities9%10%20%18%14%22%22%23-25%??20102016Target:2017 2018 2019ConsistentMarginImprovementSincetheAcquisitionofSmithBarneyKeyDriversAdditionalDriversPre-TaxMargin(%)(1)(2)MergerSynergiesBuildingtheBankCostDisciplineAnnuitizingRevenuesRetailInvestorEngagementRisingRatesLendingPenetrationContinuedCostDisciplineWalletShareOpportunities2011 2012(3) 2013 2014 2015313InvestmentManagementEntersPeriodofStabilityandGrowth33%39%28%AUM$417BnOrganizationalRealignmentRationalizedCostBaseLegacyThirdPartyFundLPPositionsEnhanceDistributionCapabilitiesU.S.IntermediaryandAsiaSolutions&PartnershipsFocusNewProductLaunchesDifferentiatedAlternativeOriginationPlatformLeverageMorganStanleyConnectivityGrowthwithLimitedBalanceSheet&CostRequirementsSynergiesandEfficiencieswithExistingPlatformsBalancedBusinessMixStrategicFocusGrowthOpportunitiesTraditionalPublic(Equity&FixedIe)Solutions&Alternatives(Alternatives/OtherProducts)Liquidity4140.80.41.63.24.8201420152016426066692010201220142016CapitalSufficiency…...SupportingGrowthinCapitalReturnContinueToReturnCapitalToShareholdersTotalCapitalReturn($Bn)eragemonEquity,ex-DVA($Bn)(1)2012 2013monDividendsBuybacks515EndNotes16ThesenotesrefertothefinancialmetricspresentedonSlide3.Representsprogressduringthecurrentcalendaryearagainstthe2017StrategicObjectivesestablishedatthebeginningof2016.Pre-taxmarginisanon-GAAPfinancialmeasurethatthepanyconsidersusefulforinvestorstoassessoperatingperformance.Pre-taxmarginrepresentsie(loss)fromcontinuingoperationsbeforetaxesdividedbyNetRevenues.InJune2016,wereceivedaconditionalnon-objectionfromtheFederaltoour2016capitalplan.Pursuanttotheconditionalnon-objection,weareabletoexecutethecapitalactionssetforthinour2016capitalplan,whichincludeincreasingourmonstockdividendto$0.20persharebeginninginthethirdquarterof2016andexecutingsharerepurchasesof$3.5billionduringtheperiodJuly1,2016throughJune30,2017.TheFederalBoardalsoaskedustosubmitanadditionalcapitalplanbyDecember29,2016addressingweaknessesidentifiedinourcapitalplanningprocess.FuturecapitaldistributionsmayberestrictediftheseidentifiedweaknessesarenotsatisfactorilyaddressedwhentheFederalreviewsourresubmittedcapitalplan.Our2015capitalplanapprovedbytheFederalwasforsharerepurchasesof$3,125millionfortheperiods2Q15through2Q16(forparativepurposesthepercentchangeofbuybackisbasedon80%ofthetotal2015approvalrepresenting4ofthe5approvedquarters).ThesenotesrefertothefinancialmetricspresentedonSlide4.Thecalculationofreturnonequity(‘ROE’)usesnetieapplicabletoMorganStanleylesspreferreddividendsasapercentageoferagemonequity(‘g.CE’).ROE,andROE,exDVAandDiscreteTaxBenefitsarenon-GAAPfinancialmeasuresthattheFirmconsidersusefulforinvestorstoassessoperatingperformance.The7%ROEfor2015representsROEexcludingDVAandnetdiscretetaxbenefits(‘DiscreteTaxBenefits’).TodetermineROE,exDVAandDiscreteTaxBenefitsboththenumeratoranddenominatorwereadjustedtoexcludetheseitems.The8%ROEfor2016isunadjustedforDVAandnetdiscretetaxbenefitsasthoseamountshadnoimpactontheROEcalculation.EffectiveJanuary1,2016,pursuanttonewaccountingguidancethattheFirmadopted,gainsandlossesfromDVAarepresentedinotherprehensiveie(i.e.,aponentofmonequity)asopposedtonetrevenuesandnetie.ThesenotesrefertothefinancialmetricspresentedonSlide6.2015NetRevenueswere$34,537million,excludingthepositiveimpactof$618millionfromDVA.NetRevenue,ex-DVAisanon-GAAPfinancialmeasurethepanyconsidersusefulforinvestorstoallowbetterparabilityofperiodtoperiodoperatingperformance.FirmExpenseEfficiencyratiorepresentstotalnon-interestexpensesasapercentageofNetRevenues(orin2015,NetRevenues,ex-DVA).For2015,theExpenseEfficiencyratiowascalculatedasnon-interestexpensesof$26,660million,dividedbyNetRevenuesof$34,537,whichexcludesthepositiveimpactof$618millionfromDVAfor2015.TheExpenseEfficiencyratio,ex-DVAisanon-GAAPfinancialmeasurethepanyconsidersusefulforinvestorstoassessoperatingperformance.ThesenotesrefertothefinancialmetricspresentedonSlide7.M&ApletedIndustryvolumes,M&ApletedMarketSharesandM&ApletedandAnnouncedLeagueTableRankingsarefromThomsonReutersasofJanuary9,2017.MarketShareiscalculatedasthepercentageofMorganStanley’svolumetotheIndustryvolume.M&ApletedandAnnouncedLeagueTableRankingsarefortheperiodofJanuary1,2016toDecember31,2016.EquityUnderwritingIndustryvolumes,EquityUnderwritingMarketSharesandEquityUnderwritingLeagueTableRankingsarefromThomsonReuters.Eachperiods’dataisasofJanuaryofthefollowingcalendaryear.MarketShareiscalculatedasthepercentageofMorganStanley’svolumetotheIndustryvolume.EquityUnderwritingLeagueTableRankingsarefortheperiodofJanuary1,2016toDecember31,2016.EndNotes17ThesenotesrefertothefinancialmetricspresentedonSlide9.TotalWalletrepresentstheaggregatedreportednetrevenuesforthefollowingpeers:GoldmanSachs,JPMorgan,BankofAmerica,Citigroup,UBS,DeutscheBank,CreditSuisse,andBarclays.MorganStanley’swalletsharecalculatedasthepercentageofMorganStanley’sNetRevenues,ex-DVAtoTotalWallet.EquitySales&TradingNetRevenues,exDVAisanon-GAAPfinancialmeasurethepanyconsidersusefulforinvestorstoallowbetterparabilityofperiodtoperiodoperatingperformance.EuropeanpeerresultsweretranslatedtoUSDusingerageexchangeratesfortheappropriateperiod;sourcedfromS&PCapitalIQ.PeerdatahasbeenadjustedforDVA,whereitisreportedandwhereapplicable.GoldmanSachsresultsalsoexcludetheAmericasReinsurancebusinessin2012and2013andthegainonsaleofahedgefundadministrationbusinessin2012.Represents2016ninemonthsTotalWalletannualizedsincenotallpeershereportedasofJanuary17,2016.FixedIeSales&TradingNetRevenues,ex-DVAforthequarterendingDecember31,2015were$550million,excludinga$90millionnegativeimpactfromDVAinthequarter.FixedIeSalesandTradingNetRevenues,ex-DVAisanon-GAAPfinancialmeasurethepanyconsidersusefulforinvestorstoallowbetterparabilityofperiodtoperiodoperatingperformance.AllfigurespresentedexcludeRWAsandleverageexposureassociatedwithlendingactivities.Thepanyestimatesitsproformafullyphased-inAdvancedrisk-weightedassets(‘RWA’)andproformafullyphased-inSupplementaryLeverageRatio(‘SLR’)exposurebasedonthepany’scurrentassessmentoftheBaselIIIfinalrulesandotherfactors,includingthepany’sexpectationsandinterpretationsoftheproposedrequirements,whichmaybesubjecttochangeasthepanyreceivesadditionalclarificationandguidancefromtheFederal.TheseproformaputationsarepreliminaryestimatesasofJanuary17,2016andcouldbesubjecttorevisioninMorganStanley’sAnnualReportonForm10-KfortheyearendedDecember31,2016.Proformafullyphased-inAdvancedRWAandproformafullyphased-inSLRExposure,arenon-GAAPfinancialmeasuresthatthepanyconsiderstobeusefulmeasurestothepanyandinvestorstoevaluatepliancewithfutureregulatorycapitalrequirements.ThesenotesrefertothefinancialmetricspresentedonSlide10.Pre-taxmarginrepresentsie(loss)fromcontinuingoperationsbeforetaxesdividedbyNetRevenues.Pre-taxmarginisanon-GAAPfinancialmeasurethatthepanyconsidersusefulforinvestorstoassessoperatingperformance.ProForma2010datahasbeenrecasttoexcludetheManagedFuturesandInternationalWealthManagementbusinesses,whicharenowreportedintheInvestmentManagementandtheInstitutionalSecuritiesbusinesssegments,respectiv