摩根士丹利-亚太澳大利亚原材料：数据挖掘：铝供应中断加剧-DataDig：Aluminium Supply Disruptions Mount-20260406

RESEARCH

Morganstanley

April6,202601:40PMGMT

AustraliaMaterials|AsiaPacific

DataDig:AluminiumSupplyDisruptionsMount

Charts,analysisandcomparablesfortheglobalminingsector.

EscalatingMiddleEastdisruptionsaremateriallytighteningthealuminiummarket,withWoodMackenziereportingthatrecentdirectstrikeshavehaltedEGA’s1.6mtpaAlTaweelahsmelter,andmayhavereducedAlba’s1.6mtpafacilityto~30%

utilisation(seeAluminiumTighteningFurther).Thiscouldremoveafurther

~2.4mtpaofsupplyandlifttotalMiddleEastdisruptionsto~3.0mtpa,or~4%of

globalsupply.Withrestarttimelineslikelytobeprolonged(upto12months,see

here)thereisanincreasedriskthatlostvolumescouldpersistthrough2026.This

wouldaddtoanalreadysupportivesupplybackdrop,withChinacappedat45mtpacapacity,Indonesia’sramp-upconstrainedbypoweravailability,andlimitedscopeformeaningfulex-Chinagrowth(seehere).Ourcommoditystrategistsseeupsideriskstoaluminiumpricesfor2026,andrisingregionalpremiumsinJapan,EuropeandtheUSvs.theLMEbenchmarkfurtherunderscorethetighteningphysicalmarket,

thoughsofterglobalgrowthcouldtempertheupsideviaweakerdemand.Forourcoverage,S32(OW)ismostpreferredwith~38%spotrevenueexposureto

AluminiuminFY27,lookingreasonableonspotFY27EV/EBITDAof~5.0x.RIO.AX(EW)alsostandstobenefitfromaluminiumpricesmovinghigherwith26%spotaluminiumrevenueexposureseenforCY26e.

Exhibit1:RegionalpremiumshaveoutpacedtheLMEbenchmarkastheAluminiummarkettightens

EBITDAsensitivitytoa10%increaseinAluminiumPrice

CY26e/FY27eRevenueExposureCY26e/FY27eEBITDAsensitivily

38%

26%

9.6%

3.4%

S32.AXRIO.AX

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

Note:RHSChartshowsCY26eforRIO,FY27eforS32.Source:Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearchEstimates

ASXMinersRelativePreferenceTable

P2

ChinaMacroOutlook

P16

ASXCoverageValuationTables

P3

ElectricVehicle-relatedCharts

P22

ASXMiningEquities

P5

Commodities:Aluminium

P27

ASXMinersRevenueExposures

P6

Commodities:Coal

P30

ASXMiningSectorvs.IndustrialsEx-Banks

P7

Commodities:Copper

P32

ASXMiningvs.Industrials–Relative

P8

Commodities:GoldandPreciousMetals

P35

AustralianMiningvs.GlobalMiningSector

P9

Commodities:IronOre

P37

GlobalMiningSectorvs.GlobalMarket

P10

Commodities:Lithium

P40

GlobalMiners–ValuationTables

P11

Commodities:Nickel

P48

CommoditiesvsMarginalCost

P15

Commodities:Zinc

P50

Idea

MoRGANSTANLEyAusTRALiALimiTED+RahulAnand,CFA

EquityAnalyst

R.Anand@

MichaelAStancliff

+6129770-1136

ResearchAssociate

Michael.Stancliff@

+6129770-9253

MoRGANSTANLEy&Co.INTERNATioNALpLc+

AmyGower(AmySergeant),CFACommoditiesStrategist

AmyGower1@morganstanleycom

+44207677-6937

AustRAliAMAtERiAls

AsiaPacific

IndustryViewAttractive

RecentResearch:

RioTintoLimited:Monetizinginfrastructureassets?(30Mar2026)

BHPGroupLtd:BHPAnnouncesNewCEO(17Mar2026)

AustraliaMaterials:ResolutionCopperlandexchangecompleted.IncrementalpositiveforBHP&RIO(16Mar2026)

RioTintoPlc:ResolutionCopper:KeyLandAccessHurdleCleared(16Mar2026)

South32Ltd:UpdatingEstimatesandPriceTarget(16Mar2026)

LynasRareEarths:Supplysecuritykeepscentrestage.USsupplyintentsigned.(15Mar2026)

South32Ltd:MozalEntersCare&Maintenanceaspreviouslyflagged(15Mar2026)

MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswith

companiescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanley

Research.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanley

Researchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.

Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.

+=Analystsemployedbynon-U.S.affiliatesarenotregisteredwithFINRA,maynotbeassociatedpersonsofthemember

andmaynotbesubjecttoFINRArestrictionson

communicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.

2

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

IDEA

ASXMinersRelativePreferenceTable

Exhibit2:ASXMiners–Investmentthesis,upside/downsidetoshareprice,financialmetricsandconsensusratings

Rank

Code

Rating

Index

Consensus

LastPrice(Buy,Hold,Sell)

Target

Upside/

Downside

EV/EBITDA

1yrfwd

FCFYield

1yrfwd

Div.Yield

1yrfwd

Gearing

1yrfwd

12Mthmove

InvestmentThesis

1

S32

OW

50

80%20%0%

4.42

4.70

6%

8.2

1%

3%

0%

S32haspotentialtocontinuegeneratingsignificantcashflow,enablingstrongshareholder

returnsalongwithpotentialtogrowbasemetalsproductionthroughitsHermosaprojectin

theUS.

2

BHP

OW

20

32%63%5%

51.23

56.00

9%

7.4

6%

4%

15%

BHPhasanattractivecommoditymix(ironore,copper,metcoal),resilientFCFandpotential

forshareholderreturns,whilemaintainingastrongbalancesheetforfavourablegrowth

and/orincreasingcashshareholderreturns.

3

LYC

OW

50

71%14%14%

19.41

18.50

-5%

22.2

2%

0%

-62%

LYCstandstobenefitfromrareearthssupplychaindiversification,andisalsoexpandingits

separatedHREproductofferingsthroughanewseparationfacilityinMalaysiawhichwe

expectwilldriveearningsgrowth.

WeexpectproductionissuesfacedsofarduringrampupofLangerHeinrichtoberectifiedin

FY26.PDNalsohasgrowthpotentialthroughPattersonLakeSouth,a9.1Mlbpaprojectin

CanadawithfirstproductionexpectedinCY31ewhichcouldmakePDNasizeableuranium

player.

PLShasexpansionoptionalityatPilgangoora,andwealsoseepotentialforanear-termrestart

atNgungajutocapitaliseonthestrongreboundinspodumeneprices.ColinaprojectFIDcould

boostvaluation,withstudyresultsexpectedmid-CY26.

WeseeILU'srareearthdownstreamstrategywellpositionedtobenefitfromestablishmentof

anex-Chinarareearthssupplychain.Wealsoseeanynear-termweaknessinthemineralsand

marketasbeingfairlypricedin.

4

PDN

OW

200

50%29%21%

11.38

14.45

27%

15.3

4%

0%

-30%

5

PLS

OW

50

44%44%13%

5.09

5.30

4%

16.3

3%

1%

-26%

6

ILU

OW

200

56%33%11%

6.75

6.70

-1%

11.8

-4.8%

4%

35%

7

BOE

OW

N/A

29%21%50%

1.58

2.00

27%

2.7

7%

0%

-20%

WeseepotentialforanimprovedproductionscenariofromarevisedHoneymoonFeasibility

Studyexpectedin3QCY26.Althoughuncertaintyremains,weseerisksandopportunities

skewedtotheupside,andweremainconstructiveontheoutlookforUranium.

8

DRR

OW

200

44%56%0%

4.03

4.75

18%

9.2

7%

6%

31%

WelikeDRR’shigh-gradeironoreexposure,primarilyfromtheMACasset.Deterra'syieldsare

lesssensitivetochangeinironorepricesbeingaroyaltycompany.

9

WHC

EW

100

43%43%14%

9.08

9.80

8%

5.2

10%

2%

13%

WHChasseenimprovingoperationalperformanceacrossassets,whichwethinkcould

continueintoFY26e.FIDWinchesterSouthwouldboostvaluationfurther,whilegenerating

strongoperatingcashflowfollowingcost-outinitiativesatQueenslandassets.

10

RIO

EW

20

50%50%0%

161.62

146.00

-10%

8.4

4%

4%

15%

Thecompanymaintainsarobustbalancesheet,givingflexibilitytopursuegrowthand/or

increasecashshareholderreturns.Weseecompanyofferingvolumegrowthprospectsforiron

oreandlithiuminparticular,howeverthiscomeswithsomeexecutionrisk.

IGOoffersdiversifiedexposuretocleanenergymetals,anddespiteseeingvalueinthistheme,

wethinkthisismorethanaccountedforinthecurrentstockprice.Wealsoremaincautiouson

acquisitonrisks,withtheNovaOperationendoflifefastapproachinginCY26andminority

Greenbushesstake.

FMGcontinuestohavestrongcashgenerationthroughitsHematiteoperations,supporting

attractivedividendsyields,howeverwethinkthisismorethanfairlyvaluedcurrently.

11

IGO

UW

100

38%38%23%

7.95

7.50

-6%

26.9

1%

0%

-83%

12

FMG

UW

20

7%60%33%

20.25

18.35

-9%

5.9

6%

5%

4%

DespiteopportunitiestoextendreservelivesatMotheoandMATSA,anddevelopment

13

SFR

UW

100

62%23%15%

16.37

16.20

-1%

5.1

9%

4%

-28%

potentialatBlackButte,weseethemarketmorethanpricingthisinwithdownsidetoour

basecasevaluationandprobability-weightedpricetarget.

Source:MorganStanleyResearch,ThomsonReuters.OrderofPreferenceconsidersrelativeupside/downsidetoTP,relativemarketcapitalization,relativerisk-rewardbalanceandtimingofpotentialperformancedrivers.Greenshadingoncompanymetricsidentifiesequitieswith

valuesmorefavourablethantheweightedaverage.ConsensusRatingcellhighlightedinorangeisacontrariancallfortherespectiveequity.IGOEV/EBITDAmultipleincludesIGO'sshareoflithiumEBITDA.

Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch.Note:SharepricesasofApril2,2026.

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

IDEA

ASXCoverageValuationTables

BaseCase

Exhibit3:Basecasevaluationmultiplesandkeymetrics:ASXminersunderMorganStanleycoverage

Rating

Yearending

FX

BaseCase

Valuation(A$)

MarketCap

(mn)

EV

(mn)

PFY27/CY26

/E

FY28/CY27

EV/EBITDA*

FCFYield

DividendYield

Gearing

FY27/CY26

FY28/CY27

FY27/CY26

FY28/CY27

FY27/CY26

FY28/CY27

FY27/CY26

FY28/CY27

Diversified

BHP

OW

June

USD

51.45

179,498

212,714e

14.1

14.5

6.8

7.5

4.3%

5.9%

4.3%

4.2%

16%

15%

RioTintoLtd.

EW

December

USD

135.50

181,009

226,592e

14.3

14.7

8.3

8.1

3.6%

4.5%

4.2%

4.1%

18%

16%

Bulks

FortescueMetalsGroup

UW

June

USD

16.70

43,035

43,874e

12.5

14.1

5.6

5.9

6.4%

5.8%

5.3%

4.7%

6%

4%

DeterraRoyalties

OW

June

AUD

4.37

2,135

2,222e

14.5

12.9

10.3

9.1

8.2%

7.1%

5.6%

5.8%

46%

31%

WhitehavenCoal

EW

June

AUD

9.65

7,514

8,404e

NM

15.2

9.2

5.8

5.2%

9.4%

1.6%

1.7%

19%

13%

BaseMetals

South32

OW

June

USD

3.95

13,722

13,607e

15.1

12.7

7.1

6.4

2.5%

2.6%

2.5%

3.0%

-1%

0%

SandfireResources

UW

June

USD

10.15

5,178

4,666e

17.2

13.5

6.6

5.2

6.7%

9.7%

2.0%

3.7%

-11%

-28%

IGOLtd

UW

June

AUD

5.60

6,020

4,989e

NM

16.7

14.6

7.5

0.3%

28.9%

0.0%

2.5%

-14%

-83%

Other

IlukaResources

OW

December

AUD

6.15

2,921

4,089e

NM

NM

12.6

10.6

-4.3%

-19.6%

3.7%

1.3%

35%

43%

PilbaraMinerals

OW

June

AUD

4.05

16,745

15,872e

38.9

34.2

18.2

15.8

2.7%

2.8%

0.9%

0.7%

-31%

-37%

LynasRareEarths

OW

June

AUD

14.30

18,239

17,614e

NM

38.7

40.0

22.7

0.9%

2.3%

0.0%

0.0%

-45%

-62%

BossEnergy

PaladinEnergy

OW

OW

June

June

USD

USD

1.20

9.35

452

3,143

349e

3,009e

9.0

NM

9.5

31.1

6.3

NM

4.3

23.5

2.1%

0.5%

5.1%

2.6%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-12%

-18%

-17%

-31%

Source:MorganStanleyResearchestimates.Note:*IGOEBITDAincludesIGO'sshareoflithiumEBITDAforEV/EBITDAcalculationandIGOFCFYieldincludesdividendsreceivedfromassociates.PricesasofApril2,2026.

MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH3

4

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

IDEA

SpotCase

Exhibit4:Spotcasevaluationmultiplesandkeymetrics:ASXminersunderMorganStanleycoverage

Rating

YearEnding

ClosePrice

(A$)

PriceTarget

(A$)

FX

Valuationat

Spot(A$)

MarketCap

(mn)

EV

(mn)

P/E

EV/EBITDA

FCFYield

DividendYield

Gearing

FY27/CY26

FY28/CY27

FY27/CY26

FY28/CY27

FY27/CY26FY28/CY27

FY27/CY26FY28/CY27

FY27/CY26FY28/CY27

Diversified

BHP

OW

June

51.23AUD

56.00

USD

55.80

179,498

212,714

19.2

18.1

6.6

6.7

4.4%

7.0%

4.5%

4.9%

15%

13%

RioTintoLtd.

EW

December

161.62AUD

146.00AUD

USD

152.00

181,009

226,592

12.5

11.0

7.2

6.2

4.9%

7.2%

5.0%

5.7%

16%

10%

Bulks

FortescueMetalsGroup

UW

June

20.25AUD

18.35AUD

USD

19.05

43,035

43,874

11.5

10.6

5.3

5.0

7.1%

7.9%

5.7%

6.1%

5%

0%

DeterraRoyalties

OW

June

4.03

4.75

AUD

4.60

2,135

2,222

14.0

11.9

10.0

8.5

8.3%

7.6%

5.8%

6.3%

45%

28%

WhitehavenCoal

EW

June

9.08

9.80

AUD

11.85

7,514

8,404

15.6

6.1

6.8

4.3

7.5%

14.1%

2.4%

4.2%

16%

7%

BaseMetals

South32

OW

June

4.42AUD

4.70AUD

USD

5.00

13,722

13,607

12.1

9.1

5.9

4.8

4.0%

6.5%

3.4%

4.4%

-3%

-6%

SandfireResources

UW

June

16.37AUD

16.20AUD

USD

13.45

5,178

4,666

21.6

14.5

6.0

4.2

7.1%

11.7%

2.4%

5.0%

-12%

-33%

IGOLtd

UW

June

7.95

7.50

AUD

7.45

6,020

4,989

36.4

8.9

10.8

4.3

0.6%

42.2%

0.0%

9.4%

-14%

-104%

Other

IlukaResources

OW

December

6.75

6.70

AUD

4.85

2,921

4,089

NM

NM

18.7

20.5

-7.4%

-24.6%

3.0%

0.9%

38%

49%

PilbaraMinerals

OW

June

5.09

5.30

AUD

5.35

16,745

15,872

23.4

15.2

12.1

8.0

5.0%

6.5%

1.6%

1.7%

-45%

-64%

LynasRareEarths

OW

June

19.41

18.50

AUD

14.30

18,239

17,614

NM

36.0

36.9

21.3

1.1%

2.5%

0.0%

0.0%

-46%

-65%

BossEnergy

OW

June

1.58AUD

2.00AUD

USD

1.55

452

349

9.1

11.6

6.4

5.1

2.0%

3.1%

0.0%

0.0%

-12%

-15%

PaladinEnergy

OW

June

11.38AUD

14.45AUD

USD

10.65

3,143

3,009

NM

34.1

NM

25.4

0.4%

2.3%

0.0%

0.0%

-17%

-29%

Source:MorganStanleyResearchestimates.Note:*IGOEBITDAincludesIGO'sshareoflithiumEBITDAforEV/EBITDAcalculationandIGOFCFYieldincludesdividendsreceivedfromassociates.PricesasofApril2,2026.

MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH5

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

IDEA

ASXMiningEquities

Exhibit5:EBITDAmarginsofASXminersinourcoverage

BHP

RIO

FMG

DRR

WHC

S32

SFR

IGO

ILU

MIN

PLS

LYC

BOE

PDN

CY2026

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

DiversifiedBulksBaseMetalsOther

CY2026EBITDAMargin

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearchestimates.

Exhibit7:FCFmarginofASXminersinourcoverage

BHP

RIO

FMG

DRR

WHC

S32

SFR

IGO

ILU

MIN

PLS

LYC

BOE

PDN

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

DiversifiedBulksBaseMetals

FCFMargin

CY2026

CY2027

100%

Other

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearchestimates.Note:FCFdefinedasOCF-capitalexpenditures.

Exhibit9:DividendyieldofASXminersinourcoverage

BHP

RIO

FMG

DRR

WHC

S32

SFR

ILU

7%

6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%

Diversified

DivYield(%)CY2026

CY2027

BaseMetals

Other

Bulks

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearchestimates.Note:PricesasofApril2,2026.

Exhibit6:P/EratiosofASXminersinourcoverage

BHP

RIO

FMG

DRR

WHC

S32

SFR

IGO

ILU

MIN

PLS

LYC

BOE

PDN

PERatio

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

DiversifiedBulksBaseMetalsOther

CY2026

CY2027

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearchestimates.Note:PricesasofApril2,2026.

Exhibit8:Netdebt/EBITDAofASXminersinourcoverageNetDebttoEBITDA

BHP

RIO

FMG

DRR

WHC

S32

SFR

IGO

ILU

MIN

PLS

LYC

BOE

PDN

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

-

(0.5)

(1.0)

(1.5)

(2.0)

(2.5)

(3.0)

(3.5)

(4.0)

(4.5)

(5.0)

CY2026

CY2027

BaseMetals

Diversified

Other

Bulks

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearchestimates.

Exhibit10:2026eP/Bvs.ROEofASXminersinourcoverage

P/B

Expensive

5.0

PLS4.0

FMG

LYC

S32

BOE

Cheap

8.0%13.0%18.0%

ROE

PDN

IGO

MIN

0.0

-2.0%3.0%

WHCILU

CY26P/BvsROE

2.0

1.0

3.0

6.0

RIO

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearchestimates.Note:Period-endbookvalues.PricesasofApril2,2026.

6

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

IDEA

ASXMinersRevenueExposures

Exhibit11:CommodityRevenueExposureofAustralianCoverage

LeadZincNickelAluminaAluminiumCopper

Lithium/

Spod.

71%

48%

22%

11%

10%

41%

26%

23%

24%

2%

15%

1%

2%

1%

100%64%

16%

20%40%60%80%100%

SFR

BHP

RIO

S32

IGO

S32

RIO

S32

IGO

S32

SFR

S32

S32

SFR

PLS

IGO

MIN

0%

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearch.Note:IGOexposureconsidersIGOshareofLithiumAssets(accountedusingequitymethod).

Exhibit12:CommodityRevenueExposureofAustralianCoverage

LYCILUSilverMang.ThermalCoalMetCoalIronOre

100%100%

43%

43%

60%

9%

57%

43%

12%

13%

6%

60%

24%

13%

24%

100%

DRR

FMG

RIO

BHP

MIN

BHP

WHC

WHC

S32

SFR

S32

Zircon

SyntheticRutile

Rutile

llmenite

Ndpr

0%20%40%60%80%100%

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearch.

MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH7

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

IDEA

ASXMiningSectorvs.lndustrialsEx-Banks

Exhibit13:Next12monthsEV/EBITDA:Bottom-upminingandindustrialsindices

NTMEV/EBITDA

Apr-06

Apr-07

Apr-08

Apr-09

Apr-10

Apr-11

Apr-12

Apr-13

Apr-14

Apr-15

Apr-16

Apr-17

Apr-18

Apr-19

Apr-20

Apr-21

Apr-22

Apr-23

Apr-24

Apr-25

Apr-26

16.0

14.0

12.0

10.0

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0

MiningIndustrials

Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch.Note:Marketcap-weightedconsensusEVandEBITDAtotalsusedindexconstruction.

Exhibit15:Next12monthsP/B:Miningandindustrialsindices

NTMP/B

Apr-14

Oct-14

Apr-15

Oct-15

Apr-16

Oct-16

Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21

Apr-22

Oct-22

Apr-23

Oct-23

Apr-24

Oct-24

Apr-25

Oct-25

Apr-26

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

MiningIndustrials

Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch.Note:Marketcap-weightedconsensusmarketcapandFCFtotalsusedforindexconstruction.

Exhibit17:Next12monthsdividendyield:Bottom-upminingandindustrialsindices

NTMDividendYield

Apr-06

Apr-07

Apr-08

Apr-09

Apr-10

Apr-11

Apr-12

Apr-13

Apr-14

Apr-15

Apr-16

Apr-17

Apr-18

Apr-19

Apr-20

Apr-21

Apr-22

Apr-23

Apr-24

Apr-25

Apr-26

14%

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

MiningIndustrials

Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch.Note:Marketcap-weightedconsensusmarketcapanddividendtotalsusedforindexconstruction.

Exhibit14:Next12monthsP/E:Bottom-upminingandindustrialsindices

NTMP/E

Apr-06

Apr-07

Apr-08

Apr-09

Apr-10

Apr-11

Apr-12

Apr-13

Apr-14

Apr-15

Apr-16

Apr-17

Apr-18

Apr-19

Apr-20

Apr-21

Apr-22

Apr-23

Apr-24

Apr-25

Apr-26

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

MiningIndustrials

Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch.Note:Marketcap-weightedconsensusmarketcapandnetincometotalsusedforindexconstruction.

Exhibit16:Next12monthsFCFyield:Bottom-upminingandindustrialsindices

NTMFCFYield

Apr-14

Oct-14

Apr-15

Oct-15

Apr-16

Oct-16

Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21

Apr-22

Oct-22

Apr-23

Oct-23

Apr-24

Oct-24

Apr-25

Oct-25

Apr-26

18%

16%

14%

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

MiningIndustrials

Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch.Note:Marketcap-weightedconsensusmarketcapandFCFtotalsusedforindexconstruction.

Exhibit18:Next12monthsROE:Bottom-upminingandindustrialsindices

NTMROE

Apr-14

Oct-14

Apr-15

Oct-15

Apr-16

Oct-16

Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21

Apr-22

Oct-22

Apr-23

Oct-23

Apr-24

Oct-24

Apr-25

Oct-25

Apr-26

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

MiningIndustrials

Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch.Note:Marketcap-weightedconsensusnetincomeandequityvaluetotalsusedforindexconstruction.

8

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

IDEA

ASXMiningSectorvs.lndustrialsEx-Banks–Relative

Exhibit19:Next12monthsrelativeEV/EBITDA:Bottom-upminingandindustrialsindices

1.6

RelativeEV/EBITDA-MiningvsIndustrials

1.4

RelativeEV/EBITDA

1.2

1.0

0.8

+1SD,0.85

Avg,0.65

0.6

0.4

-1SD,0.45

0.2

Apr-06

Apr-07

Apr-08

Apr-09

Apr-10

Apr-11

Apr-12

Apr-13

Apr-14

Apr-15

Apr-16

Apr-17

Apr-18

Apr-19

Apr-20

Apr-21

Apr-22

Apr-23

Apr-24

Apr-25

Apr-26

0.0

Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch.Note:Marketcap-weightedconsensusEVandEBITDAtotalsusedindexconstruction.

Exhibit21:Next12monthsrelativeP/B:Miningandindustrialsindices

1.2

RelativeP/B-MiningvsIndustrials

1.1

RelativeP/B

1.0

0.9

0.8

+1SD,0.87

Avg,0.73

0.7

0.6

-1SD,0.60

0.5

Apr-14

Oct-14

Apr-15

Oct-15

Apr-16

Oct-16

Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21

Apr-22

Oct-22

Apr-23

Oct-23

Apr-24

Oct-24

Apr-25

Oct-25

Apr-26

0.4

Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch.Note:Marketcap-weightedconsensusmarketcapandFCFtotalsusedforindexconstruction.

Exhibit23:Next12monthsrelativedividendyield:Bottom-upminingandindustrialsindices

RelativeDividendYield

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

Apr-06

Apr-07

Apr-08

Apr-09

Apr-10

Apr-11

Apr-12

Apr-13

Apr-14

Apr-15

Apr-16

Apr-17

Apr-18

Apr-19

Apr-20

Apr-21

Apr-22

Apr-23

Apr-24

Apr-25

Apr-26

RelativeDiv.Yield-MiningvsIndustrials

+1SD,1.91

Avg,1.23

-1SD,0.55

Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch.Note:Marketcap-weightedconsensusmarketcapanddividendtotalsusedforindexconstruction.

Exhibit20:Next12monthsrelativeP/E:Bottom-upminingandindustrialsindices

RelativeP/E

RelativeP/E-MiningvsIndustrials

+1SD,0.78Avg,0.58

-1SD,0.37

1.8

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

Apr-06

Apr-07

Apr-08

Apr-09

Apr-10

Apr-11

Apr-12

Apr-13

Apr-14

Apr-15

Apr-16

Apr-17

Apr-18

Apr-19

Apr-20

Apr-21

Apr-22

Apr-23

Apr-24

Apr-25

Apr-26

Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch.Note:Marketcap-weightedconsensusmarketcapandnetincometotalsusedforindexconstruction.

Exhibit22:Next12monthsrelativeFCFyield:Bottom-upminingandindustrialsindices

RelativeFCFYield

Avg,

RelativeFCFYield-MiningvsIndustrials4.0

3.5

3.0

+1SD,2.57

2.51.99

2.0

1.5

-1SD,1.411.0

0.5

0.0

4.5

Apr-14

Oct-14

Apr-15

Oct-15

Apr-16

Oct-16

Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21

Apr-22

Oct-22

Apr-23

Oct-23

Apr-24

Oct-24

Apr-25

Oct-25

Apr-26

Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch.Note:Marketcap-weightedconsensusmarketcapandFCFtotalsusedforindexconstruction.

Exhibit24:Next12monthsrelativeROE:Bottom-upminingandindustrialsindices

4.5

RelativeROE-MiningvsIndustrials

4.0

RelativeROE

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

+1SD,2.27

Avg,1.55

1.5

1.0

0.5

-1SD,0.82

Apr-14

Oct-14

Apr-15

Oct-15

Apr-16

Oct-16

Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21

Apr-22

Oct-22

Apr-23

Oct-23

Apr-24

Oct-24

Apr-25

Oct-25

Apr-26

0.0

Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch.Note:Marketcap-weightedconsensusnetincomeandequityvaluetotalsusedforindexconstruction.

MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH9

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

IDEA

AustralianMiningvs.GlobalMiningSector

Exhibit25:RelativeEV/EBITDA:Australiavs.GlobalMining

RelativeEV?EBITDA

RelativeEV/EBITDA-AustraliavsGlobalMining

+1SD,1.22

Avg,1.07

-1SD,0.93

1.70

1.50

1.30

1.10

0.90

0.70

0.50

Mar-96

Mar-97

Mar-98

Mar-99

Mar-00

Mar-01

Mar-02

Mar-03

Mar-04

Mar-05

Mar-06

Mar-07

Mar-08

Mar-09

Mar-10

Mar-11

Mar-12

Mar-13

Mar-14

Mar-15

Mar-16

Mar-17

Mar-18

Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21

Mar-22

Mar-23

Mar-24

Mar-25

Mar-26

Source:Datastream,MorganStanleyResearch.

RelativeP/B

RelativeP/B-AustraliavsGlobalMining

+1SD,1.56

2.00

1.80

1.60

1.40

1.20

1.00

0.80

Exhibit27:RelativeP/B:Australiavs.GlobalMining

Avg,1.37

-1SD,1.18

Mar-96

Mar-97

Mar-98

Mar-99

Mar-00

Mar-01

Mar-02

Mar-03

Mar-04

Mar-05

Mar-06

Mar-07

Mar-08

Mar-09

Mar-10

Mar-11

Mar-12

Mar-13

Mar-14

Mar-15

Mar-16

Mar-17

Mar-18

Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21

Mar-22

Mar-23

Mar-24

Mar-25

Mar-26

Source:Datastream,MorganStanleyResearch.

Exhibit29:RelativeDividendYield:Australiavs.GlobalMining

1.601.501.401.301.201.101.000.900.800.70

0.60

RelativeDivyield-AustraliavsGlobalMining

RelativeDividendYield

Avg,1.01

-1SD,0.83

+1SD,1.20

Mar-96

Mar-97

Mar-98

Mar-99

Mar-00

Mar-01

Mar-02

Mar-03

Mar-04

Mar-05

Mar-06

Mar-07

Mar-08

Mar-09

Mar-10

Mar-11

Mar-12

Mar-13

Mar-14

Mar-15

Mar-16

Mar-17

Mar-18

Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21

Mar-22

Mar-23

Mar-24

Mar-25

Mar-26

Source:Datastream,MorganStanleyResearch.

Exhibit26:RelativeP/E:Australiavs.GlobalMining

3.50

3.00

2.50

2.00

1.50

1.00

0.50

RelativeP/E-AustraliavsGlobalMining

RelativePE

+1SD,1.78

Avg,1.32

-1SD,0.86

Mar-96

Mar-97

Mar-98

Mar-99

Mar-00

Mar-01

Mar-02

Mar-03

Mar-04

Mar-05

Mar-06

Mar-07

Mar-08

Mar-09

Mar-10

Mar-11

Mar-12

Mar-13

Mar-14

Mar-15

Mar-16

Mar-17

Mar-18

Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21

Mar-22

Mar-23

Mar-24

Mar-25

Mar-26

Source:Datastream,MorganStanleyResearch.

Exhibit28:RelativeFCFYield:Australiavs.GlobalMining

3.102.902.702.502.302.101.901.701.501.301.10

0.90

RelativeFCFyield-AustraliavsGlobalMining

RelativeFCFYield

+1SD,2.17

Avg,1.74

-1SD,1.32

Mar-98

Mar-99

Mar-00

Mar-01

Mar-02

Mar-03

Mar-04

Mar-05

Mar-06

Mar-07

Mar-08

Mar-09

Mar-10

Mar-11

Mar-12

Mar-13

Mar-14

Mar-15

Mar-16

Mar-17

Mar-18

Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21

Mar-22

Mar-23

Mar-24

Mar-25

Mar-26

Source:Datastream,MorganStanleyResearch.

Exhibit30:RelativeROE:Australiavs.GlobalMining

1.5

RelativeROE-AustraliavsGlobalMining

1.4

Relative