mckinsey -2026藏于明处：被低估的半导体产业规模研究报告 Hiding in plain sight The underestimated size of the semiconductor industry

January2026

Mcsey

&company

SemiconductorsPractice

Hidinginplainsight:

Theunderestimatedsizeofthesemiconductorindustry

AnewMcKinseyanalysissuggeststhatthesemiconductorindustryispoisedfor

record-breakinggrowth—butforcompanies,successwillrequiretherightsegment-specificstrategies.

ThisarticleisacollaborativeeffortbyBillWiseman,MarcdeJong,andPhilippPfingstag,withAndreasJeindlandKlausPototzky,representingviewsfromMcKinsey’sSemiconductorsPractice.

1DDRstandsfordoubledatarate.

Hidinginplainsight:Theunderestimatedsizeofthesemiconductorindustry2

Marketanalystsmaydisagreeaboutspecifictrendsandforecasts,buttheytypically

sharethesameoptimisticattitudeaboutthesemiconductormarket.Accordingtomost

assessments,thesemiconductorindustrywasvaluedintherangeof$630billionto

$680billionin2024andisexpectedtoreach$1trillionto$1.1trillionby2030,largelyfueledbythegrowthofAIanddatacenters.

Thisview—althoughpositive—couldbeasignificantunderestimationofthesemiconductor

industry’strueworth.That’sbecausetraditionalestimates,whicharelargelybasedonsales

volumes,maypartiallyorcompletelyoverlookthevalueofchipscreatedbyOEMswithin-housedesigncapabilities,captivechipdesigners,andfablessoperators(forsomeadvancedpackagingtechnologies).Thisoversightcouldhavemeaningfulconsequences,asthesecategoriesare

nowdemonstratingthehighestgrowthrates.What’smore,currentanalysesoftenundervalueChinesesemiconductorcompaniesbecauseinformationontheirsalesisincompleteoropaque.

Accuratevalueassessmentsaremoreimportantthanever,asAIisexpectedtopushthe

semiconductorindustry’saverageCAGRwellabovethe9percentrecordedfrom2014to2024.Toassesssemiconductorvaluemoreaccurately,weanalyzedallcompanytypes,including

thoseinChina.Ratherthanrelyingonsalesvolumes,whichdonotaccuratelyrevealvaluewhencompaniesarenotdirectlysellingchipsonthemarket,weconductedcustomizedanalysesforeachtypeofsemiconductorcompany.Forexample,forOEMplayerswithin-housechipdesign,suchassmartphonemanufacturers,weestimatedtheircontributiontothemarketbasedonthecostofgoodssold(COGS),combinedwithatypicalgrossmarginfortheproduct.

Themaintakeaway:Thevalueofthesemiconductormarkettotaled$775billionin2024and

couldreach$1.6trillion(rangingfrom$1.5trillionto$1.8trillion)by2030—figuresthatfar

surpassotherestimates.Butnotallsemiconductorcompanieswillbenefitequally,because

mostgrowthwillrelatetoleading-edgechipsandhigh-bandwidthmemory(HBM).Afew

highlyinnovativecompanieswilllikelyaccountforthemostvalueinthesesegments,given

thesemiconductorindustry’swinner-take-alldynamic.Inothermarketsegments—such

asadvancedandmaturenodes,orDDR1DRAMandNANDmemory—thetopcompanies

aggressivelyreducecosts,eitherbyincreasingscaleorundertakingtraditionalcostexcellenceprograms.Theyalsostrivetoexpandtheirpresenceinhigher-growthsegmentsandattempttodifferentiatetheirofferings.

Oneimportantcaveat:Wecreatedarangeofestimatesbecausesomuchuncertaintyexists,asisthecasewithallforecasts.Inourlow-casescenario,forinstance,AIdemandisweakerthan

expected,translatingintolowerchipdemand.The$1.6trillionestimatereflectsourmiddle-case,orbase-case,scenario.

Reassessingmarketsize

Historically,analystshavedeterminedmarketsizebymeasuringsalesofsemiconductor

devicestoelectronicscompaniesfromfablessoperators,foundries,andintegrateddevicemanufacturers(IDMs)thatbothdesignandmanufacturechips.Whendirectsalesdatawereunavailable—forinstance,fornonlistedcompanies—analystscreatedestimates.

Hidinginplainsight:Theunderestimatedsizeofthesemiconductorindustry3

Formanyyears,thistraditionalapproachwasafairlyaccuratebarometerofsemiconductor

marketvaluebecauseitcorrectlyassessedthevalueofchipsfromtheIDMs,fabless,andfully

integratedplayersthatdominatedthemarket.Buttoday,mostofthegrowthiscomingfrom

captivechipplayers,OEMswithin-housedesign,andfablesscompanies,andananalysisbasedlargelyonsalesdoesnotfullyaccountforthevalueoftheirchips.(Formoreinformationonhowmarketshareischangingamongcompanytypes,seesidebar“Theevolvingsemiconductor

market”).Chinesecompanies,too,aregrowing—makingitmuchmoreimportanttoestimatetheircontributiontovalue,whichtraditionalestimatesdon’tfullycapture.

Beyondsales-basedanalysis

Ourassessmentmethodologyeliminatessomeofthegapsinherentinthetraditionalapproach.Specifically,ourestimatestakeintoaccountthefollowingplayers.

Captivechipdesigncompanies.Captivechipdesigners,whicharetypicallyhyperscalers

operatingdatacentersforcloudservices,createchipsfortheirowninternaluse.Captive

demandisexcludedfromsales-basedanalysesbecausethesesemiconductorsarenotsoldontheopenmarket;instead,theyareusedin-housetodeliverhigher-performancecloudservicesatacompetitivecost.OurapproachestimatesthevalueofcaptivechipsbylookingatinternalR&Dspend,COGS,andG&Aexpensesrelatedtotheirdesignandmanufacture.

OEMswithin-housedesign.Mostanalystsassessthevalueofasystemonachip(SoC)

designedin-housebylookingatCOGSalone(mainlybyexaminingpaymentstofoundriesforchipmanufacturing).Suchanalysesoverlookestimatedinternalgrossmargins—theassumedprofit

thatahypotheticalsupplierwouldearnfromsellingchipstotheend-productmanufacturing

unit—eventhoughsuchmarginsareconsideredwhenquantifyingthecontributionsofIDMs

andfablessplayers.OurapproachensuresgreaterconsistencybyconsideringbothCOGSandestimatedinternalgrossmarginsforOEMswithin-housedesign(Exhibit1).

Theevolvingsemiconductormarket

Althoughintegrateddevice

manufacturershavehistoricallyreportedthemostgrowthinthesemiconductor

industry,theyhadaCAGRofonly

6percentfrom2014to2024.Meanwhile,fullyintegratedsemiconductor

companies—thosethatdesignand

manufacturechipsfortheirownproducts—lostsignificantmarketshareandhada

negativeCAGRfrom2014to2024.

Forotherbusinessmodels,growth

accelerated.Abouttenyearsago,afew

majorOEMsthatmanufactureproducts

withsignificantelectronicscontent,suchashigh-endsmartphones,startedshiftingtowardin-housedesignforapplication

processorsandotherdifferentiating

components.Morecompaniesarenow

followingtheirexample.Thismovehelpsthemreducecostswhilesimultaneouslyallowingthemtocreatehighlycustomizedchips.Althoughthein-housedesign

segmentisstillsmall,ithadaCAGR

of21percentfrom2014to2024—the

highestofanycategory.Similarly,fablessoperatorshadaCAGRof14percent,whichtooktheirrevenuesharefrom24percentto41percent.Mostoftheirgrowthrelatestodemandforleading-edgechipsthat

enableAIsolutions.Captivechipdesignisarelativelynewsegment,accountingfor3percentofdevicerevenuesin2024.

Exhibit1

Hidinginplainsight:Theunderestimatedsizeofthesemiconductorindustry4

859

Smartphonecomponent

costbreakdownforOEMswith

in-housedesigncapabilities,$

Typicalthird-

partyestimates

forsystemon

chiparebased

onlyoncostof

goodssold

McKinseyalso

considers

internalgross

margin

70

Valueofother

smartphone

components,

includinggross

marginandtax

70

McKinseycomputesthevalueofasystemonachipdesignedbyasmartphoneOEMbylookingatcostofgoodssoldandestimatedinternalgrossmargins.

999

140

McKinseyestimateis2×third-partyestimates

Systemonachip

Internalgrossmargin

Smartphonesales

McKinsey&Company

Fablesscompanies.Fablesscompaniesdesignchipsandoutsourcemanufacturingtofoundries.Whileasales-basedassessmentcouldaccuratelyassessthevaluegeneratedbyfabless

companiesinthepast,itnowfallsshortfortworeasons:

—Companiesincreasinglyusemodernpackagingtechnologiestointegrateseparately

manufacturedcomponents,suchasprocessorsandmemory,intoheterogeneouschips.

—Companiesincreasinglyprovidesoftware,oftenforfree,toenhanceeaseofuseandallowcustomerstocapturethefullpotentialofthechips.

Typically,analystestimatescreditfablesscompanieswithonlyasubsetofthevalueoftheentirechip-on-wafer-on-substrate(CoWoS)package,suchastheCOGSandgrossmarginassociatedwithlogicandpackagingcomponents.Theydonotcreditfablesscompanieswithanygross

marginforHBM,insteadallocatingthistomemorycompanies.Inouranalysis,weattributethe

valueofthefullCoWoSpackage,includingHBM,tothefablesscompany.Wealsotakeadifferentapproachtosoftware:Whiletraditionalanalystestimatessubtractaportionofgrossmarginto

accountforthesoftwarebundledwithagraphicsprocessingunit(GPU),ourmethodretainsthefullmargin(Exhibit2).

Regionalunderrepresentation.Abouthalfoftheplannedcapacityexpansionfrom2024to2028(asmeasuredbywafercapacity)isexpectedtotakeplaceinChina.Thenewfacilitieswillfocus

onthemanufacturingofadvancedandmaturenodes,andanalysescouldunderestimatethesizeofthissegmentifdatafromChinaareincomplete.Togenerateamoreaccurateestimateofthe

Exhibit2

Hidinginplainsight:Theunderestimatedsizeofthesemiconductorindustry5

McKinseyconsidersthefullgrossmarginonlogic,packaging,andmemorywhencomputingthevalueforachip-on-wafer-on-substratepackage.

Power,assembly

21.5

GPUsales

3.5

Costofgoodssold

logic,

highbandwidth

memory(HBM),

packaging

McKinseyalso

considersgross

marginHBM

7.8

McKinseymarket

estimateis2.2×typicalthird-partymarket

sizing

GPUcardcostsplit,$thousand

Grossmarginlogicand

packaging

Chip-on-wafer-on-substratepackage

GrossmarginHBM

16.5

5.21

5.0

1Grossmarginforlogicandpackagingincludedinmarketsizevariesdependingonwhetherashareofrevenueisattributedtosoftware.

McKinsey&Company

valuefromChinesecompanies,ouranalysiscombinesdataforreportedrevenues,estimatedrevenuesbasedonmanufacturingcapacity,anddatafrominternalproprietarymodels.Our

estimateisconservativeandconsidersthefactthatChinaisnowoperatingatlowerutilizationrates,andsomeannouncedfuturecapacitymaynotmaterialize.

Astrongmarketwithpotentialforfuturegrowth

Weestimatethe2024valueofthesemiconductormarkettobeabout$775billion.This

amountisaround14to23percenthigherthanothermarketassessments,whichrangefrom$630billionto$680billion.Breakingdownourestimate,valuecomesfromthefollowing

sources(Exhibit3):

—allsemiconductorplayersoutsideChina(around$604billion,with$507billioncomingfromthetop20semiconductorcompanies)

—companiesheadquarteredinChina($93billion)

—OEMswithin-housechipdesign($52billion)

—captivechipdesigners($25billion)

Exhibit3

Hidinginplainsight:Theunderestimatedsizeofthesemiconductorindustry6

McKinseyestimatesthatthecurrentvalueofthesemiconductorindustryisabout$775billion.

Global

semiconductor

marketsize2024,$billion

Totalmarketsize

$775

97

Demand

fromChina

93

OEMswith

in-house

capabilities52

Captivechip

507design25

Top20semiconductorcompanies

Long-tail

non-China¹

Note:Figuresdonotsumtototal,becauseofrounding.

1ThisgroupincludescompaniesoutsideChinathatarenotinthetop20.

Source:Gartner;Omdia;WorldSemiconductorTradeStatistics;McKinseyanalysis

McKinsey&Company

Acloserlookatthe2024valuationrevealsthatthelargestverticalsarecomputinganddatastorage($350billion),wireless($200billion),andautomotive($75billion).Acrossverticals,leading-edgenodeshaveavalueof$220billion—equaltothecombinedvalueofalltypesofmemory(NAND,DDRDRAM,andHBM).

A$1.6trillionsemiconductormarketin2030

Withsomuchuncertaintyahead,wedevelopedthreedifferentscenariostoestimatefuture

semiconductordemand.Themajorvariablewasthe

expectedtrajectoryforAIadoption

.Inourscenarios,theestimated2030valueofthesemiconductormarketrangedfrom$1.1trillionto

$1.8trillion.Themiddlecase,orbasecase,of$1.6trillionrepresentsanincreaseof$825billionfromour2024estimateandissignificantlyhigherthantraditionalestimates,whichtypically

rangefrom$1trillionto$1.1trillion(Exhibit4).

2

Wetestedthevalidityofourestimatesbyexaminingprojectedchangesinotherindependentvariablesthatwerenotfactoredintoouroriginalanalysis,suchasindustrycapacity,projectedrevenues,andcapitalexpenditures.Theresultsfromtheseanalysessupportedourestimatesof$1.1trillionto$1.8trillioninvalueby2030(seesidebar“Validatingourestimatesthrough

additionalanalyses”).

2Wealsocreatedscenariosthatconsideredhowmarketvaluemightevolveifotherdevelopmentsinfluencedthemarket,suchasaslower-than-expecteddeclineinaveragesalespricesforleading-edgenodes,orasignificantdownturnintheadvancedandmaturenodessegment,orinthememorysegment.Wedidnotfactorthesepotentialdevelopmentsintotheanalysis

discussedinthisarticle.

Exhibit4

Hidinginplainsight:Theunderestimatedsizeofthesemiconductorindustry7

Thesemiconductormarketcouldreachavalueof$1.6trillionby2030.

Consumer

Industrial

Wired

Automotive

Wireless

Computinganddatastorage

CAGR,%

13

10

11

15

13

10

15

(4%)

(5%)

(8%)

(9%)

(18%)

(55%)

35

40

70

70

150

460

Growthcontributionpervertica$billion(shareofindustrygrowth

20242030

1,600

775

l,

)

Globalsemiconductormarket(basecase),

$billion

Note:Valuesroundedtonearest$5billion;percentagesdonotaddto100%,becauseofrounding.

Source:Omdia;McKinseyanalysis

McKinsey&Company

Validatingourestimatesthroughadditionalanalyses

Tovalidateourprojections,we

conductedadditionalanalysesonother

informationthatwasnotconsideredinourdemand-basedanalysis.Thedata,whichwereprimarilyrelatedtoleading-edge

chips,includedthefollowing:

—Capitalexpenditures.Weexamined

therevenueforecastsforthemajor

equipmentcompanieswithinthe

semiconductorindustry,assumingthattheexpectedgrowthofthetopfive

toolprovidersservesasaproxyfortheincreaseincapitalexpenditureswithinsemiconductors.Wealsolookedat

capitalexpenditure-to-revenueratiosforleadingfoundriesandmemory

integrateddevicemanufacturers,usingthemasaproxyforcapitalintensityinthesemiconductormarket.Together,

expectedtoolgrowthandcapital

expenditureintensitythrough2030suggestasemiconductormarketsizeofabout$1.6trillion.

—Semiconductorrevenue.Weexaminedanalystconsensusrevenueestimatesforthetop20semiconductor

companiesfrom2025to2027.Afterextrapolatingtheirrevenuesto2030,ouranalysisindicatedatotalmarketsizeof$1.6trillionto$1.8trillion,

assumingthatthetopcompanies

increasetheirtotalmarketshareto

75to85percentofthetotalin2030.

—Capacity.Afterassessingthe

capacityofthetopfivefoundries,weprojectedtheirfutureoutputat

85percentutilizationandlookedat

thisincombinationwithotherdata,

suchaswaferaveragesellingprice

bynodesize,toestimatethevalueof

leading-edgechipsin2030.Forthat

segmentalone,ouranalysispredictedavalueof$860billion—wellabovethe$730billioninourbase-casescenario,whichusedmoreconservative

capacityestimates.

Hidinginplainsight:Theunderestimatedsizeofthesemiconductorindustry8

Futuregrowthtrajectoriesforleadingverticals

Theleadingsegmentsin2030willbethethreethatnowdominatethemarket,buttheirgrowthtrajectoriesanddemanddriverswilldiffer:

—Computinganddatastorage.Thisverticalisexpectedtogrowfromanestimatedvalueof

$350billionin2024to$810billionin2030.Theincreaseof$460billionaccountsformore

thanhalfofthe$825billiontotalexpectedgrowthinsemiconductorvalue.Demandinthe

serversegment,especiallyforAIservers,willaccountformostoftheincrease.Inaddition

togreaterunitshipments,theaveragesellingprice(ASP)forwaferswillrisebecauseof

shrinkingnodesizesandgreaterHBMcontent.AsAIserversbecomemoreconnectedto

createlarge-scale,shared-memory,low-latencyclusters,thewiredsegmentwillalsobenefit.

—Wireless.Thissegmentisexpectedtogrowbyanestimated$150billionthrough2030,

leadingtoatotalvalueof$350billion.Severalfactorsarebehindthisshift.First,many

consumersareswitchingtomoreexpensivesmartphonesthatrequiremoresophisticatedchips—ashiftthatwillhelpcompensatefortheplateauinyearlysmartphoneshipments.

Second,semiconductorcontentinotherwirelessdevicesisalsoincreasing,partlybecausenewconnectivitystandardsrequiremoresilicon.Manufacturersarealsotransitioningto

smallernodesizesinleading-edgewirelesscomponents,includingSoCs,modems,Wi-Fichips,andNANDmemorycontrollers.Whilethisshiftraisescomponentcosts,italso

improvesconnectivity,increasescomputepower,andhelpsmanageenergyconsumption.

—Automotive.Chipvalueisexpectedtoincreasebetween2024and2030.Thetransition

toelectricvehiclesisfuelingmuchofthemarketgrowthinthissegment,especiallyfor

advancedandmaturenodes.

Additionalautomotivemarketgrowth

comesfromtheincreasingsophisticationofadvanceddriverassistancesystems(ADAS),suchasimprovementsin

autonomousdrivingthatdependonchipsthatcanacceleratedataprocessing.

Unevengrowthwithinsemiconductorsegments—andonebigopportunity

OurestimatedCAGRforthesemiconductormarketfrom2024to2030is13percent,butgrowthwillvarysignificantlybysegment:

—Fornonmemorydevices,theprojectedCAGRforleading-edgenodesis22percent.Demandfor3nanometer(nm)nodesisexpectedtorise25percent,whiledemandfor5nmand7nmnodeswillfall.For2nmnodes,whichjustbecameavailablein2025,demandisexpectedtosoar136percentthrough2030.If1.4nmnodesbecomeavailableasexpectedin2027,theiranticipatedCAGRwillbeabout314percent.

—Foradvancedandmaturenodesinnonmemorydevices,demandisonlyexpectedtorisebybetween2and4percent,dependingonnodesize.

—HBMwillhaveaCAGRof20percent,whichismuchhigherthanthatforDDRDRAM(12percent)andNAND(9percent).

Hidinginplainsight:Theunderestimatedsizeofthesemiconductorindustry9

WithsuchvariationsinCAGR,leading-edgenodeswillrepresentamuchhighershareofoverallmarketgrowthfrom2024to2030thantheothermajorsegments(Exhibit5):

—Leading-edgechips,primarilyforAI,willaccountfor62percentoftotalgrowth.This

momentumresultsfromacombinationofdemandforcomputepowerinnewdevicesandthemigrationtosmallernodesizesinnext-generationproducts,suchasadvancedWi-Fichips.Awinner-take-alldynamicislikelytopersistintheleading-edgechipsegment,withafew

companiesgarneringmostoftheprofits.

—Thememorysegmenthasrecoveredfromitsrecentdownturnandwillaccountfor31percentofgrowth,withalmosthalfofthatrelatedtoHBM,whichhasahighersalespricethanother

typesofmemory.Aswithleading-edgechips,afewcompaniesmayreapmostoftheprofits.

—Advancedandmaturenodeshaveamuchlowergrowthtrajectorythanthesetwosegments.Thissegmentnowaccountsformorevaluethanleading-edgenodes,butthatsituation

willlikelybeginreversingin2026.Manycompaniesofferadvancedandmaturenodes,

highlightingtheneedforastronggrowthstrategytostandoutfromthepack.

Acrossthesethreesegments,trendsinwafersalesvolumeandASPcouldtakedifferentdirections(seesidebar“Trendsinwafergrowth”).

Exhibit5

Marketgrowthwillvarysignificantlyforleading-edgechips,advancedandmaturenodes,andmemory.

Semiconductordevicemarketgrowth

2024–30,$billion

Totalmarketgrowth

$825

LeadingAdvancedMemory

edgeandmature260

510nodes55

313

16

71

31

21

117

<1

722

34

35

7

249

215

Note:Figuresmaynotsumtototals,becauseofrounding.

Totalbysegment,$billion

Consumer35

Industrial40

Wired70

Automotive70

Wireless150

Computingand

datastorage460

McKinsey&Company

Hidinginplainsight:Theunderestimatedsizeofthesemiconductorindustry10

Trendsinwafergrowth

Totalwafersalesvolumeisexpectedtorisefrom114millionin2024to159millionin2030.TheCAGRof7percentforthis

periodisinlinewithhistoricgrowthrates.Ourwaferstartconclusionsfor2024

and2030alignwiththoseoftraditionalforecasts,butourbreakdownofmarketgrowthbysegmentisdifferent:

—Advancedandmaturenodesare

currentlycontributingtomostmarket

growthforwafers,withsalesvolumes

expectedtorisefromabout73millionwafersin2024to102millionby2030

(6percentCAGR).Thesegainswillbe

offsetbyananticipateddeclineinwaferaveragesellingprice(ASP),asrecent

capacityexpansionsincreaseoutput.

—TheASPforleading-edgewafershasbecomeveryhigh—$20,000ormoreforthesmallestnodes.Thevolume

ofwafersalesforleading-edgechips

issmall,butweforecastgrowthfrom

about5.1million300-millimeterwaferequivalentstoaround13.7millionwaferequivalents(18percentCAGR).

—Formemory,wafersalesvolumeis

expectedtorisefromabout36millionto43million(7percentCAGR).

Implicationsforsemiconductorcompanies

Ourestimateofthesemiconductorindustry’svalue,aswellastheprospectofunevengrowth,suggeststhatcompaniesmaybeunderestimatingboththechallengesandopportunities

ahead.Tooptimizetheirchancesofcapturingmarketshareandeconomicsurplus,theymustunderstandthenuancesofthemarket,includingtheareaswheregrowthmayaccelerate

mostquickly.

Leading-edgechipsandHBM

OurmarketbreakdownclearlyshowsthatHBMandleading-edgechips,especiallythesmallestnodesizes,willexperiencethemostgrowth.TheirexpectedCAGRismorethan20percent

through2030,largelydrivenbyAI.Companiesthatarenotalreadycreatingsuchchipscouldbenefitbyinvestigatingwhethertheyhavetheresourcesandcapabilitiestodoso.Otherwise,theycouldmissoutonthesurestpathtogrowth.

ForcompaniesthatdevelopHBMorleading-edgechips,successhingesonconstantinnovationthatwilldeliverfaster,moreenergy-efficientsolutionsforcompute-drivensegments.For

instance,companiesarepursuingimprovementsforGPUsindatacenters,chipsforADAS,and

memorycontrollers,amongotherareas.Bytransitioningtosmallernodesizesfortheseuse

cases,companiescanimproveperformancewithoutincreasingchipsizeorenergyrequirements.Theseenhancementsnecessitatemoremasklayersandgreatermanufacturingprecision,whichincreasescosts.Customersmaygravitatetothesolutionsthatdeliverthegreatestperformanceimprovements,especiallyifpricesincreaseacrosstheboard,whichwillcontributetoa

continuingwinner-take-alldynamic.

Aswithourotherforecasts,somedevelopmentsmaymaterializethatshiftourestimates.For

instance,manyplayersareinvestigatingalternativechipstoHBMtoreducecosts,especiallyforinference,andtomitigatetheimpactofthecurrentmemorysupplyshortage.Ifcompaniesdo

movetoalternatives,demandforHBMcoulddeclinesubstantially.

Hidinginplainsight:Theunderestimatedsizeofthesemiconductorindustry11

Advancedandmaturenodes

Foradvancedandmaturenodes,performanceimprovementsareoccurringmoreslowlybecausethetechnologyhasalreadybeencontinuouslyoptimizedformanyyears,andtherearefewer

opportunitiestomakefurtherenhancements.ThissegmentoverallisexpectedtohaveaCAGRofabout3percentfrom2024to2030,whichismuchlowerthanthatforleading-edgenodes.Westillexpecttofindpocketsofhighgrowthinthissegment,however,suchasopportunities

with

opticalconnectivitychips

andpowersemiconductors,fueledbyincreasesindatacentersandelectrification.

Insomecases,capacityexpansionmayoutpacemarketgrowthforadvancedandmaturenodes,puttingpressureonprices.Thattrendcouldbechallengingformanufacturersinthissegment,

resultinginmorecompetition.Growth,therefore,willcomemostlyfromgreaterunitsales,ratherthanhigherASPs.Toremaincompetitive,companiesthatmanufactureadvancedandmature

nodesmustincreaseproduction—potentiallythroughM&A—tocaptureeconomiesofscaleandpursueadditionalcostreductionopportunities.Ontheproductside,companiesshoulddifferentiatetheirofferingsandincreasetheirpresenceinhigh-growthsegments.

Creatingafuturestrategy

Muchofthesemiconductorindustry’sgrowthoverthepastfewdecadeshasbeendrivenbya

fewleadingcompaniesineachsegment.Inarecentanalysis,McKinseyexaminedtheirstrategiestoidentifywhatsetstheleadersapartfromthepack.

Onemajorfinding:Topperformersoptimizedtheireconomicprofitbyimplementinga

combinationoffivebigmoves.Threeinvolve