摩根士丹利-哔哩哔哩(BILI.O)：游戏管线与AI东风提振股价潜力-Game Pipeline and AI Tailwinds Boost Stock Potential-20260412

Morganstanley

April12,202608:53PMGMT

RESEARCHIDEA

BilibiliInc|AsiaPacific

GamePipelineandAlTailwindsBoostStockPotential

What’sChaNged

BilibiliInc(BILI.O)

From

To

Rating

Equal-weight

Overweight

PriceTarget

US$25.00

US$31.00

WeseeemergingvalueinBilibilistockwithbettergamepipelinevisibility,sustainedAladoptiontailwindsandastronger

valuationaftertherecentpullback.WeupgradetoOW.

Biligamebusinesstoenternewupcyclein2H26backedbythreenewproducts.

Thelastupcycle(2Q24-2Q25)wasprimarilydrivenbythesuccessofSanMou,

liftingBili'squarterlygamerevenuefromRmb1bntoRmb1.7bnrunrate.WhenSanMoustartedanaturaldowncycle(3Q25-2Q26),revenuefellto~Rmb1.5bn,despitethepositivesurprisefromEscapeFromDuckovin4Q25.Weexpectthreenew

gamesinthepipelinetodriveinflectionin2H26,withpotentiallythebiggest

contributionfromRomanceoftheThreeKingdoms:Wangdaotianxia(SanWangforshort,MSeannualizedgrossingofRmb1.7bn,tobelaunchedby4Q26),followedbyNCardandLumiMaster.Wedonotbelievethesehavebeenfullybakedintothe

marketconsensusofRmb6.8bngamerevenuein2027(vs.MSeRmb7.8bn),

especiallyaftertherecentsharepricepullback.AlthoughSanMouandSanWangbothbelongtotheThreeKingdomsSLGgenre,weexpectmanageable

cannibalization:SanMouoffersalighterSLGexperience,whileSanWangtargetsamorehardcoreSLGaudience,competingprimarilywithRomanceoftheThree

Kingdoms:StrategyVersion(SanZhan,Alibaba,sameIP)and,toalesserextent,Invincible(NetEase).

AIadoptionbenefitsechorisingconsumptionamongyoungerusers.BilibenefitsfromAIadoptioninseveralareas:(1)fasterDAUandtime-spentgrowththrough

betteridentificationandpromotionofhigh-qualitycontent,(2)highercreator

efficiencyandcontentsupplyviaAIvideogenerationtools,bothin-houseandthird-party,(3)lowercoststhroughAI-assistedcoding,and(4)theemergenceofAIB2Capplicationsasagrowingadvertisercohortontheplatform.Broad-basedgrowthincreatorrevenueslastyearreflectsBili’srobustecosystem.Atthesametime,asanonlinecommunityforyoungerusers,withanaverageageof26–27,Bilicaptures

risingpurchasingpowerandincreasinglydiversifiedconsumptiondemand.Theplatformcontinuestogaintractionasago-toadvertisingchannelacrosssectors,sustainingoutperformanceversustheoverallonlinemarketingmarket.

UpgradetoOWwithnewPTofUS$31.Wekeepour2026EPSforecastslargely

unchangedandraise2027-28emobilegamerevenueby17%andEPSby2-3%onthenewgamecontribution.WethinkBilibiliisararenameintheChinainternetspacewithupsidetoconsensusearningsforecastsfrombothitscorebusinessandAI

tailwinds.

MoRGANSTANLEyAsiALimiTEd+

YangLiu

EquityAnalyst

Yang.Liu@

+8522239-1911

TomTang

EquityAnalyst

Tom.Tang@

+8523963-1860

GaryYu

EquityAnalyst

Gary.Yu@

+8522848-6918

BilibiliInc(BILI.O,BILIUS)

ChinaInternetandOtherServices|China

StockRating

Overweight

IndustryView

Attractive

Pricetarget

US$31.00

Up/downsidetopricetarget(%)

30

Shrprice,close(Apr10,2026)

US$23.76

52-WeekRange

US$36.40-15.60

Shrsout,diluted,avg(12/26e)(mn)

486

Mktcap,curr(mn)

US$10,873

EV,curr(mn)

US$7,945

Avgdailytradingvalue(mn)

US$73

FiscalYearEnding

12/25

12/26e

12/27e

12/28e

EPS(Rmb)**

5.45

6.53

9.27

11.23

PriorEPS(Rmb)**

-

6.54

9.04

10.97

Revenue,net(Rmbmn)

30,348

33,031

37,392

40,130

EBITDA(Rmbmn)

3,073

3,771

5,710

7,020

ModelWarenetinc(Rmbmn)

1,194

1,878

3,250

4,249

P/E

31.6

24.9

17.5

14.4

P/BV

5.3

4.2

3.5

2.8

RNOA(%)

(37.8)

(27.6)

(48.9)

(59.9)

ROE(%)

8.5

12.1

17.5

18.4

EV/EBITDA

20.1

13.3

7.9

5.7

Divyld(%)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

FCFyldratio(%)**

9.9

8.5

10.0

10.2

Leverage(EOP)(%)

(128.2)

(128.3)

(125.1)

(119.2)

Unlessotherwisenoted,allmetricsarebasedonMorganStanleyModelWareframework

**=Basedonconsensusmethodologye=MorganStanleyResearchestimates

MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswith

companiescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanley

Research.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanley

Researchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.

Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.

+=Analystsemployedbynon-U.S.affiliatesarenotregisteredwithFINRA,maynotbeassociatedpersonsofthememberandmaynotbesubjecttoFINRArestrictionson

communicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.

2

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

IDEA

KeyCharts

Exhibit1:Revenuebreakdown

MobileGames

LiveBroadcastingandVASAdvertising

IPderivativesandothers

46668

50

40

30

20

10

0

FY23FY24FY25FY26EFY27E

37

2

15

13

33

2

12

12

30

2

10

12

Revenue(Rmbbn)

27

2

8

11

23

2

6

10

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearchestimates.

Exhibit3:Bilibiliquarterlygamerevenue

1Q24

2Q24

3Q24

4Q24

1Q25

2Q25

3Q25

4Q25

1Q26E

2Q26E

3Q26E

4Q26E

Gamerevenue(Rmbmn)GrowthYoY(RHS)

2,000

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

-

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

-20%

-40%

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearchestimates.

Exhibit5:Bilibilimargin20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-200%

-400%

FY23FY24FY25FY26EFY27EFY28EFY29EFY30E

Non-GAAPEBITMarginNon-GAAPNetMargin

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearchestimates.

Exhibit2:Revenuemix

MobileGamesAdvertising

2,185

6,412

9,910

4,021

FY23

Revenue(Rmbmn)

2,0162,041

12,47214,593

12,27612,925

6,3956,2677,833

FY25FY26EFY27E

2,033

8,189

10,999

5,610

FY24

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

1,966

10,058

11,928

Livestreaming&VASEcommerce&others

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearchestimates.

Exhibit4:Bilibilimonthlygamegrossings

Bilibili'sChinaiOSgrossing(Rmbmn)-exclusivegames

300.0

250.0

200.0

150.0

100.0

50.0

-

Jan-26

Oct-25

Jul-25

Apr-25

Jan-25

Oct-24

Jul-24

Apr-24

Jan-24

Fate/GrandOrderAzurLane

EverthingisNewSanGuo:MouDingTianXia

Others

Source:SensorTower,MorganStanleyResearch.

Exhibit6:BilibiliMAUgrowth

368

363

376

366

342

336

348

340

394

385

397

391

410

400

390

380

370

360

350

340

330

320

310

300

9%

8%

7%

6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%

Series1Series2

1Q24

2Q24

3Q24

4Q24

1Q25

2Q25

3Q25

4Q25

1Q26E

2Q26E

3Q26E

4Q26E

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearchestimates.

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

IDEA

150

130

110

90

70

50

30

10

-10

DAU(mn)(LHS)

GrowthYoY(RHS)

12%

10%

9%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

Exhibit7:BilibiliDAUgrowth

1Q24102

102

107

103

107

109

2Q24

3Q24

4Q24

1Q25

2Q25

117

113

116

118

3Q25

4Q25

1Q26E

2Q26E

126

3Q26E

123

4Q26E

9%

6%

4%

3%

4%

9%

10%

9%

7%

8%

7%

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearchestimates.

Exhibit8:Bilibilimonthlytimespent

978

919

1046

936

1037

1045

1209

1112

1185

1183

1360

4Q26E1267

25%

20%

15%

14%

10%

5%

0%

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

14%

6%

11%

7%

Timespent(bnmin)

(LHS)

21%

13%

19%

16%

13%

11%

14%

1Q24

2Q24

3Q24

4Q24

1Q25

2Q25

3Q25

4Q25

1Q26E

2Q26E

3Q26E

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearchestimates.

Exhibit9:

SanWanggameplay

Source:Companydata.

Exhibit10:ComparisonofthefourThreeKingdomSLGtitles-WeexpectavgDAUtobesomewherebetweenSanMouandSanguozhi:StrategyVersion(SanZhan).

Invincible

Sanguozhi:

StrategyVersion

SanMou

SanWang

Publisher

Netease

Alibaba

Bilibili

Bilibili

Content/timespent

Heavy

Medium

Light

Medium

AuthorizedIP

No

Yes

No

Yes

ARPU(Rmb/DAU)

400-600

~100

150-200

~100

AvgDAU(mn)

0.2

1.4

0.7

0.7-1.4

Source:Companydata,SensorTower,QuestMobile,MorganStanleyResearchestimates.ARPUandDAUbasedonSensorTowerandQuestMobiledata.

AuthorizedIPmeanstheRomanceoftheThreeKingdomsIPfromKoeiTecmoGames.

MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH3

4

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

IDEA

What'schanged?

Wecutourrevenueforecastsby1%in2026Eduetoweakerlivebroadcasting,butraisedthemby2%in2027–28E,mainlyreflectingtherevenuepotentialfromSanWang,whichweexpecttolaunchin4Q26.Welowerednon-GAAPoperatingprofitby3.2%in2026E,butlifteditby10%and7.5%in2027–28Eonoperatingleverage.Asaresult,diluted

EPADSdeclinedby0.2%in2026Eandroseby2.5%and2.4%in2027–28E.

Exhibit11:Bilibiliearningsestimatesrevision

EarningsrevisionNewOldChanges

RmbmnunlessotherwisestatFY26EFY27EFY28EFY26EFY27EFY28EFY26EFY27EFY28E

MobileGames

6,267

7,833

8,068

6,395

6,714

6,916

-2%

17%

17%

LiveBroadcastingandVAS

12,276

12,925

13,508

12,632

13,347

13,985

-3%

-3%

-3%

Advertising

12,472

14,593

16,490

12,372

14,599

16,351

1%

0%

1%

IPderivativesandothers

2,016

2,041

2,064

1,966

1,966

1,966

2%

4%

5%

Revenues

33,031

37,392

40,130

33,365

36,627

39,218

-1%

2%

2%

GrossProfit(GAAP)

12,424

14,871

16,370

12,565

14,340

15,881

-1%

4%

3%

OperatingProfit(GAAP)

561

2,389

3,584

657

1,957

3,169

-15%

22%

13%

NetIncome

812

2,184

3,183

819

2,072

3,056

-1%

5%

4%

DilutedEPADS(Rmb)

3.87

6.63

8.61

3.88

6.40

8.35

0%

4%

3%

Non-GAAP

Operatingincome

2,936

4,765

5,959

3,032

4,333

5,545

-3.2%

10.0%

7.5%

NetIncome

3,171

4,543

5,543

3,179

4,432

5,415

-0.2%

2.5%

2.4%

DilutedEPADS(Rmb)

6.53

9.27

11.23

6.54

9.04

10.97

-0.2%

2.5%

2.4%

Margins

GrossMargin

37.6%

39.8%

40.8%

37.7%

39.2%

40.5%

0.0ppts

0.6ppts

0.3ppts

OperatingMargin

1.7%

6.4%

8.9%

2.0%

5.3%

8.1%

-0.3ppts

1.0ppts

0.8ppts

NetMargin

2.5%

5.8%

7.9%

2.5%

5.7%

7.8%

0.0ppts

0.2ppts

0.1ppts

Non-GAAPNetMargin

9.6%

12.2%

13.8%

9.5%

12.1%

13.8%

0.1ppts

0.1ppts

0.0ppts

Non-GAAPEBITDAMargin

9.8%

14.0%

16.2%

10.0%

13.1%

15.5%

-0.2ppts

0.9ppts

0.7ppts

S&Mexpas%ofrevenue

13.5%

13.0%

12.5%

13.5%

13.0%

12.5%

0.0ppts

0.0ppts

0.0ppts

G&Aexpas%ofrevenue

4.7%

4.2%

4.0%

4.6%

4.3%

4.1%

0.0ppts

-0.1ppts

-0.1ppts

R&Dexpas%ofrevenue

11.3%

10.5%

10.0%

11.2%

10.7%

10.4%

0.1ppts

-0.2ppts

-0.3ppts

KeyOperatingMetrics

MAU

374.7

394.5

411.3

374.7

394.5

411.3

0%

0%

0%

AdvertisingRevenue/DAU($)

15.3

16.8

17.9

15.2

16.8

17.7

1%

0%

1%

LiveStreamVASPayingRatio

7.3%

7.2%

7.1%

7.5%

7.4%

7.3%

0%

0%

0%

LiveStreamVASPayingusers

28.6

29.6

30.5

29.3

30.5

31.4

-3%

-3%

-3%

LiveStreamVASARPPU

107.4

109.1

110.8

107.7

109.6

111.2

0%

0%

0%

MobileGamePayingRatio

1.2%

1.2%

1.2%

1.2%

1.2%

1.2%

0%

0%

0%

MobileGamePayingUsers

4.4

4.7

5.0

4.4

4.7

5.0

0%

0%

0%

MobileGameARPPU

640.2

646.6

646.6

640.2

646.6

646.6

0%

0%

0%

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearchestimates.

Weincreaseourpricetargetby24%toUS$31,largelyreflectingourrevisionstoearningsandouter-yearfreecashflowfromstrongeroperatingleverage.

MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH5

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

IDEA

Exhibit12:BilibiliDCFvaluation

Rmbmn

FY23

FY24

Totalrevenue

22,528

26,832

30,348

33,031

37,392

40,130

42,895

45,666

GrowthYoY

2.9%

19.1%

13.1%

8.8%

13.2%

7.3%

6.9%

6.5%

Operatingprofit(non-IFRS)

(3,385)

(43)

2,442

2,936

4,765

5,959

7,273

8,586

Margin

-15.0%

-0.2%

8.0%

8.9%

12.7%

14.9%

17.0%

18.8%

Incometax

(56)

1

(35)

(88)

(476)

(775)

(1,091)

(1,288)

Effectivetaxrate

-1.7%

2.6%

1.4%

3.0%

10.0%

13.0%

15.0%

15.0%

Depreciationandamortizati

2,923

2,512

1,949

2,145

2,256

2,371

2,478

2,596

As%ofrevenue

13.0%

9.4%

6.4%

6.5%

6.0%

5.9%

5.8%

5.7%

Capex

(1,330)

(1,755)

(1,892)

(2,175)

(2,418)

(2,537)

(2,655)

(2,815)

As%ofrevenue

-5.9%

-6.5%

-6.2%

-6.6%

-6.5%

-6.3%

-6.2%

-6.2%

Changeinworkingcapital

1,276

3,233

2,342

913

685

(159)

332

470

As%ofrevenue

5.7%

12.1%

7.7%

2.8%

1.8%

-0.4%

0.8%

1.0%

SBC

(1,133)

(1,116)

(1,171)

(1,171)

(1,171)

(1,171)

(1,171)

(1,171)

As%ofrevenue

-5.0%

-4.2%

-3.9%

-3.5%

-3.1%

-2.9%

-2.7%

-2.6%

UnleveredFCF

(1,705)

2,832

3,635

2,560

3,641

3,688

5,167

6,379

ChangeYoY

-73.2%

-266.1%

28.4%

-29.6%

42.2%

1.3%

40.1%

23.5%

As%ofrevenue

-7.6%

10.6%

12.0%

7.8%

9.7%

9.2%

12.0%

14.0%

Proportionofcashflows

0.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

Timefactor

-

-

-

-

0.75

1.75

2.75

3.75

Discountfactor

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

0.92

0.82

0.73

0.65

Discountedcashflow

-

2,832

3,635

2,560

3,344

3,025

3,783

4,171

Terminalvalue

50,094

50,094

50,094

50,094

54,538

61,083

68,413

76,622

Enterprisevalue

73,445

70,613

89,191

86,631

87,731

91,251

94,797

98,836

Netcashandinvestments

7,633

11,758

14,567

18,496

23,437

28,528

35,218

43,226

Equityvalue

81,079

82,372

103,759

105,127

111,168

119,779

130,015

142,062

Equityvalue(US$mn)

11,666

11,852

14,929

15,126

15,995

17,234

18,707

20,441

NoofdilutedADS(mn)

456

459

476

486

490

493

496

498

PriceTarget(US$)

31.0

Rmb/USD

6.95

PriceTargetdate

12/31/26

WACC

12.0%

Terminalgrowth

3.0%

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearchestimates.

6

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

IDEA

Financialsummary

Exhibit13:Bilibili:Financialsummary

Revenuegrowth

MobileGames

LiveBroadcastingandVASAdvertising

Others

GAAPmeasures

Grossmargin

OperatingmarginNetmargin

Non-GAAPmeasures

Grossmargin

OperatingmarginEBITDAmarginNetmargin

Costofsalesas%ofrevenueRevenueshareas%ofrevenuContentcostas%ofrevenueS&Mas%ofrevenue

G&Aas%ofrevenue

R&Das%ofrevenueSBCas%ofrevenue

13%

14%

8%

23%

-3%

37%

4%

4%

37%

8%

9%

9%

63%

40%

9%

14%

5%

10%

4%

9%

-2%

3%

24%

2%

38%

5%

6%

38%

9%

10%

10%

62%

39%

8%

14%

5%

11%

4%

13%

25%

5%

17%

1%

40%

9%

9%

40%

13%

14%

12%

60%

39%

7%

13%

4%

10%

3%

7%

3%

5%

13%

1%

41%

12%

11%

41%

15%

16%

14%

59%

39%

7%

13%

4%

10%

3%

OperatingmetricsFY25FY26EFY27EFY28E

Monthlyactiveuser(mn)Dailyactiveuser(mn)

DAUtoMAU

Mobilegames

Monthlyactiveuser(mn)

Monthlypayinguser(mn)QuarterlyARPPU(Rmb)

Advertising

CPTrevenue

CPMrevenue

Annualrevenue/DAU(Rmb)

Annualrevenue/DAU(US$)

351.4106.5

30%

65.74.1634

5,5714,487 9413.2

374.7115.4

31%

73.84.4640

6,7495,723 10815.3

394.5123.5

31%

81.64.7647

7,536

7,05711816.8

411.3130.8

32%

105.65.0647

7,9648,526 12617.9

Incomestatement(Rmbmn)FY25FY26EFY27EFY28EP/LmetricsFY25FY26EFY27EFY28E

MobileGames

6,395

6,267

7,833

8,068

LiveBroadcastingandVAS

11,928

12,276

12,925

13,508

Advertising

10,058

12,472

14,593

16,490

Others

1,966

2,016

2,041

2,064

TotalRevenue

30,348

33,031

37,392

40,130

Revenue-SharingCosts

(12,083)

(13,015)

(14,678)

(15,730)

ContentCosts

(2,585)

(2,795)

(2,712)

(2,771)

ServerandBandwidthCosts

(1,740)

(1,800)

(1,914)

(2,009)

Staffcostsandothers

(2,721)

(2,893)

(3,112)

(3,145)

Share-basedcompensation

(105)

(105)

(105)

(105)

Totalcostofrevenue

(19,234)

(20,607)

(22,520)

(23,760)

GrossProfit

11,114

12,424

14,871

16,370

Selling&Marketing

(4,318)

(4,459)

(4,861)

(5,016)

General&Administrative

(1,501)

(1,546)

(1,577)

(1,608)

Research&Development

(3,106)

(3,727)

(3,913)

(4,030)

Share-basedcompensation

(1,066)

(1,066)

(1,066)

(1,066)

Totaloperatingexpenses

(9,990)

(10,797)

(11,416)

(11,721)

OperatingProfit

1,124

1,626

3,455

4,650

Investmentincome,net

(242)

(100)

(200)

(200)

InterestIncome

432

548

599

727

Exchangelosses

(80)

-

-

-

Others,net

125

-

-

-

ProfitBeforeTax

1,359

2,074

3,854

5,177

TaxExpenses/(Benefits)

(17)

(99)

(506)

(830)

Profitaftertax

1,342

1,975

3,348

4,347

Preferredsharesredemption

-

-

-

-

Deemeddividendforpreferredshare

-

-

-

-

Non-controllinginterest

3

3

3

3

Netincome

1,344

1,978

3,350

4,349

Grossprofit(non-GAAP)

11,219

12,529

14,976

16,475

Operatingincome(non-GAAP)

2,442

2,936

4,765

5,959

EBITDA(non-GAAP)

2,678

3,249

5,238

6,512

Netincome(non-GAAP)

2,590

3,171

4,543

5,543

DilutedEPS(GAAP)(Rmb)

2.52

3.87

6.63

8.61

DilutedEPS(non-GAAP)(Rmb)

5.45

6.53

9.27

11.23

FY27E

36,946

26,627

6,447

1,566

2,307

13,810

1,065

2,932

4,762

5,051

22,452

4,861

6,176

5,623

5,791

23,013

(22,239)45,252

21,766

FY26E

31,685

21,685

6,447

1,383

2,169

13,648

943

2,892

4,762

5,051

21,446

4,861

5,882

5,039

5,664

18,595

(25,489)44,084

16,825

FY28E

42,367

31,718

6,447

1,676

2,526

13,977

1,145

3,019

4,762

5,051

22,622

4,861

6,485

5,776

5,499

28,430

(17,990)46,420

26,857

FY25

27,550

17,757

6,447

1,268

2,078

13,618

695

3,110

4,762

5,051

20,327

4,861

5,497

4,662

5,307

15,549

(27,367)42,916

12,896

BalanceSheet(Rmbmn)

LiveStreamingandVAS

28.6

107

FY26E6,104

1,875

3,315

913

(2,175)

(700)(1,475)

29.6

109

FY27E7,359

3,248

3,426

685

(2,418)

(735)(1,683)

Monthlypayinguser(mn)

QuarterlyARPPU(Rmb)

CashFlowStatementOperatingcashflows

Profitaftertax

Non-cashadjustments

Changeinworkingcapital

Investmentcashflows

29.4

101

FY25

30.5

111

FY28E7,629

4,2473,541 (159)

(2,537)

(772)(1,766)

Currentassets

Cash&deposits

Short-terminvestmentsAccountreceivables

Prepaymentandothers

7,147

1,191

3,199

2,757

(7,495)

(465)(1,426)(5,603)

2,268

Non-currentassets

PPE

Intangibleassets

Long-terminvestmentsOthers

Capex(PPE)

Capex(Content)Others

Financingcashflows

ProceedsfromshareissuanceOthers

ChangeinFX

Netchangeincash

Currentliabilities

-

-

-

Borrowings

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

AccountpayablesDeferredrevenuesOthers

2,268

14

1,934

10,396

12,330

-

-

-

Shareholdersequity

-

-

-

3,929

12,330

16,259

5,091

21,200

26,292

4,941

16,259

21,200

RetainedearningsOthers

Cashbeginningbalance

Cashendingbalance

Netcash(debt)

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearchestimates.

MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH7

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

IDEA

RiskReward–BilibiliInc(BILI.O)

NewgamepipelineandAlupsidearekeytailwinds;OW

PRICETARGETUS$31.00

Basecase,discountedcashflowvaluation.WeapplyaWACCof12%andterminalgrowthrateof3%,inlinewithourChinaInternetcoverage.

US$30.83

ConsensusPriceTargetDistribution

Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch

US$21.14US$37.74

MSPT

MeanMorganStanleyEstimates

RISKREWARDCHARTANDOPTIONSIMPLIEDPROBABILITIES(12M)

Prob(>48.00)~0.0%

Prob(>31.00)~15.8%

Prob(<17.00)~33.3%

US$48.00(+102.02%)

US$31.00(+30.47%)

US$17.00(-28.45%)

0

APR'25OCT'25APR'26APR'27

USD

48

36

24

12

US$23.76

Key:HistoricalStockPerformanceCurrentStockPricePriceTarget

Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch,MorganStanleyInstitutionalEquitiesDivision.TheprobabilitiesofourBull,Base,andBearcasescenariosplayingoutwereestimatedwithimpliedvolatilitydatafromtheoptionsmarketasof10Apr2026.Allfiguresareapproximaterisk-neutralprobabilitiesofthestockreachingbeyondthescenariopriceineitherthree-months’orone-years’time.ViewexplanationofOptionsProbabilitiesmethodologyhere

OVERWEIGHTTHESIS

.WeexpectstrongadvertisingrevenuegrowthbackedbyincreasingAIadbudget,efficiencyimprovementsandnew

inventoriesfromOTTandotherchannel.

.Weexpectgamerevenuegrowthtoturnpositivein2H26thankstonewtitle

contributionincludingSanWang,NCardandLumiMaster.

.WemovetoOWasweseeBiliasoneoffewinternetnamesthatcouldseepositiveEPSrevisionahead.

ConsensusRatingDistribution

94%Overweight6%Equal-weight0%Underweight

MSRating

Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch

RiskRewardThemes

SecularGrowth:Positive

ViewdescriptionsofRiskRewardsThemeshere

US$48.00

BULLCASE

45xbull-case2026eEPADS

Stronger-than-expectedmonetizationof

newrevenuesources:Weexpectgame

revenueCAGRof19%andadsCAGRof24%over2025-27e.Weexpectnon-GAAPOPtoreach10%by2025e.

US$31.00

BASECASE

34xbase-case2026eEPADS

Sustainedgamegrowthandsuccessful

expansionofrevenuesources:WeexpectgamerevenueCAGRof11%andadsCAGRof20%over2025-27e.Weexpectnon-

GAAPOPtoreach9%in2026e.

US$17.00

BEARCASE

24xbear-case2026eEPADS

Slower-than-expectedmonetizationand

highercosts:Weexpectagamerevenue

CAGRof7%andadsCAGRof15%over

2025-27e.Weexpectnon-GAAPOPtoreach7%by2026e.

8

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

IDEA

RiskReward–BilibiliInc(BILI.O)

KEYEARNINGSINPUTS

Drivers

TotalMAU(Rmb,mn)

2025

368

2026e

392

2027e

411

2028e

428

MobilegamequarterlyARPPU(Rmb)

634

640

647

647

AdvertisingCPTrevenue(Rmb,mn)

5,571

6,749

7,536

7,964

Revenue-sharingcost%oftotalrevenue(%)

39.8

39.4

39.3

39.2

INVESTMENTDRIVERS

·MAUgrowth

·Advertisingrevenuegrowth

·Gamerevenuegrowthandnewgames·Marginexpansion

GLOBALREVENUEEXPOSURE

100%MainlandChina

Source:MorganStanleyResearchEstimateViewexplanationofregionalhierarchieshere

RISKSTOPT/RATING

RISKSTOUPSIDE

·Stronger-than-expectedadvertisingrevenuegrowthdrivenbymacrotailwinds

·Better-than-expectedlongevityofSanMouin

termsofuserretentionandgamegrossing·Scale-backofsharingratio

RISKSTODOWNSIDE

·Lower-than-expectedmarginsowingtohighersalesandmarketingexpensesorcontentcosts

·Lower-than-expectedMAUgrowthamid

potentiallygreatercompetitionastheuserbaseexpands

OWNERSHIPPOSITIONING

Inst.Owners,%Active35%

HFSectorLong/ShortRatio2.8xHFSectorNetExposure13.9%

Refinitiv;MSPBContent.IncludescertainhedgefundexposuresheldwithMSPB.Informationmaybe

inconsistentwithormaynotreflectbroadermarkettrends.Long/ShortRatio=LongExposure/Short

exposure.Sector%ofTotalNetExposure=(Fora

particularsector:LongExposure-ShortExposure)/(Acrossallsectors:LongExposure–ShortExposure).

MSESTIMATESVS.CONSENSUS

FYDec2026e

Sales/Revenue

(Rmb,mn)

32,682.0

33,031.1

33,275.3

33,718.1

EBIT

(Rmb,mn)

1,385.0

1,626

2,115.4

3,227.0

Netincome

(Rmb,mn)

1,878

3,471.9

3,151.3

EPS

(Rmb)

6.4

6.5

7.0

8.1

MeanMorganStanleyEstimatesSource:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch

MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH9

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

IDEA

RiskRewardReferencelinks

1.ViewexplanationofOptionsProbabilitiesmethodology-

Options_Probabilities_Exhibit_Link.pdf

2.ViewdescriptionsofRiskRewardsThemes-

RR_Themes_Exhibit_Link.pdf

3.Viewexplanationofregionalhierarchies-

GEG_Exhibit_Link.pdf

4.ViewexplanationofTheme/Exposuremethodology-

ESG_Sustainable_Solutions_External_Link.pdf

5.ViewexplanationofHERSmethodology-

ESG_HERS_External_Link.pdf

10

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

IdEA

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