摩根士丹利-美国LNG出口商2026年Q1业绩前瞻及全球天然气与LNG市场展望北美天然气行业 What's Next for US Exporters - Previewing 1Q Results-260420

RESEARCH

Morganstanley

April20,202610:07PMGMT

GlobalGas&LNG|NorthAmerica

WhatIsNextforUSExporters-

Previewing1QResults

Ourrefreshed2026EBITDAestimatesarein-linewith

consensusforCheniereandbelowforEE.WearealsoslightlybelowthestreetonVG)reflectingrecentsofteninginTTF/JKM)butstillwellaboveguidance.Evenwithanear-termresolution)weseeupsidepricerisksforthebalanceoftheyear.

KeyTakeaways

Evenwithnear-termconflictresolution,weseeupsideriskstoJKMLNGpricesoverthebalanceoftheyearasinventoryre-fillseasonprogresses.

Cheniere:1QEBITDAof~$2Bsitsnearconsensus,includinga$370MMtaxcredit,withfullyearof$7.5B(guidance$6.75-7.25).

EE:In-line1QEBITDAof$122MM,butwearebelowcons&guidancefor'26(MSe$504|cons$514|guide$525-545),reflectingQataroutage&laterIraqstart.

NEXT:Phase1isaheadofschedule,butpriceexposureisfairlylimited(no2026&MSe~40Tbtunetopenin2027).Focusisonde-riskingfurthergrowth.

VG:1QEBITDAof$1.22B(aboveguidemidpoint),MSe2026is$7.7B,slightlybelowconsduetorecentsofteninginpricesbutaboveguidanceof$5.2-5.8B.

Evenwithanear-termrestart,upsidepriceriskspersist.RoughlytwoweeksaftertheUS-Iranceasefirewasannounced,noLNGcarriershaveyettotransitthroughtheStraitofHormuz.Thatsaid,satellitedatapickedupsomenewthermalactivitylastweekatQatargasTrains1,2,and3(inadditiontoongoingactivityatTrains6&7),indicatingthatthefacilitymightbepreparingforapotentialrestart.Assuminganear-termre-openingoftheStrait,thiscouldputthemarketontrackfora

resumptionofQatarivolumesduringthemonthofMay-consistentwithourbasecase(more

here

).Still,themarketisstillfacingamajorsupplydeficitin2026.WethinkJKMpriceshavepulledbacktoomuchandseeupsideriskstopriceas

inventoryre-fillseasonprogressesoverthecourseof2026.

Previewing1QresultsforUSLNGcompanies.Withthisnote,weupdateour

forecastsforthelatestcommodityprices.Our2026EBITDAestimatesarein-linewithconsensusforCheniereandbelowforEE.ReflectingthelatestmovelowerinJKM/TTFprices,wearealsoslightlybelowthestreetonVG,butstillwellaboveguidance.Seebelowforourviewsintoearnings:

•Cheniere.Wemodel$2.05Bof1QEBITDA(cons:$2.03B)inclusiveof

Cheniere's~$370MMAlternativeFuelTaxCreditwhichwasrecognized

duringthequarter.Markingourmodelforlatestforwardpricing,weestimateEBITDAof$7.5Bfor2026(cons:$7.5B).AfterachievingfirstLNGatCCL

IDEA

MoRGANSTANLEy&Co.LLCDevinMcDermott

EquityAnalystandCommoditiesStrategist

Devin.McDermott@

+1212761-1125

JoeLaetsch,CFA

EquityAnalyst

Joe.Laetsch@

JacquelineMKennyResearchAssociate

+1212761-8804

Jacqueline.Kenny@

HelenLin

+1212761-2253

ResearchAssociate

Helen.Lin@

+1212761-0766

DivErsifiEdNaturalGas

NorthAmerica

IndustryViewIn-Line

WHAT’sCHANGED

NextDecadeCorporation

(NEXT.O)

From

To

PriceTarget

$7.00

$8.00

CheniereEnergyInc(LNG.N)

From

To

PriceTarget

$313.00

$308.00

VentureGlobalInc(VG.N)

From

To

PriceTarget

$22.00

$20.00

ExcelerateEnergyInc(EE.N)

From

To

PriceTarget

$41.00

$40.00

MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswith

companiescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanley

Research.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanley

Researchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.

Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

Idea

2

Stage3Train5inlateMarch,commissioningfortheprojectappearstobe

trendingatleastafewweeksaheadofschedule.Weforecastfullyearsalesvolumesof~53mt(guidance51-53mt),reflectingStage3outperformanceandsomemaintenanceoptimizationonthebackofeventsintheMiddle

East.PTmovesto$308($313prior),reflectingslightlyloweropencargomarginsrelativetoourlastupdateinmid-March.RemainOverweight.

•EE.Wemodel$122MMof1QEBITDA(cons$123MM)withfull-yearEBITDAof$504MM,modestlybelowconsensusof$514MMandguidanceof$525-545MM.WeassumeEEdoesnotreceiveitscontractedvolumeunderits

QatarLNGcontractduring2Q,a~$3MEBITDAimpact(weestimate~$1MMpermonth).Inaddition,whilethecompanyhasnotannouncedanytimelinechangesforitsIraqproject(andHull3407,Acadia),wenowassumea4Q

start,versusguidanceformid-year.Thisremoves~$27.5MMfromour2026EBITDAforecast.Welookforwardtoupdatesonfleetoptimization,macroenvironment,growthprojectprogress(includingIraq),andQatarEnergy

deliveriesonthecall.PTfallsfrom$41to$40,stayEqual-weight.

•NEXT.With4Q25earnings,NEXTannouncedthatPhase1istrackingaheadofscheduleandnowexpectsfirstLNGfromT1in1H27(vs2H27prior).NEXTinitiatedpre-filingwithFERCinNovemberforRioGrandeTrain6andexpectstofileafullapplicationmid-year.WeunderstandthatNEXTisworking

towardcommercializingthisproject,butformalofftakeannouncementshaveyettobemade.Thecompanywillalsolooktopre-fileforTrains7&8this

year–approximatelyayearbehindTrain6.OurPTmovesto$8from$7,reflectingstrongercommissioningcargomargins.RemainEqual-weight.

•VG.Wemodel$1.22Bof1QEBITDA(cons$1.26B,guidancefor$1.15-1.25B)with38cargoesfromCalcasieuPassand92fromPlaquemines,inlinewithVG'sdisclosureon4/9.InlateMarch,VGannouncedthatitsettledits

ongoingarbitrationwithEdison,whichincludesdeliveryofadditional

cargoesin2QbeyondthoseincludedintheexistingSPA.VGalsoannouncedtheexecutionofa1.5mtpa5-yearSPAwithVitolcommencingin2026whichweestimatewasanchorednearthestripnearthetimeofannouncement

(3/23).VG'scurrent2026guidanceassumes$5-6liquefactionmarginson

opencargos,whileforwardsforthebalanceoftheyearcurrentlyimply$8-9(andtheaveragesinceconflict-startwas>$10).WeexpectVGtoupdateitsEBITDAoutlookalongsideearningsandforecast$7.7Busingthelatest

globalgas&LNGfutures,+40%abovethemidpointofcurrentguidance,but

-4%vsconsensus(likelyduetotherecentsofteninginprices).PTmovesto$20($22prior),reflectingslightlyloweropencargomarginsrelativetoourlastupdateinmid-March.RemainOverweight.

MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH3

LNGSupply&DemandTrends

Supply.DuringthemonthofMarch,MiddleEasternLNGexportsthatsetsailpre-conflictwerestillenrouteandarrivingattheirfinaldestinations.Nearlyallofthis"LNGonthewater"wasdeliveredbyearlyApril.Evenwithsomeprogresstowardre-openingthe

Strait,operationsatQatar'sRasLaffanLNGexportcomplexarestillpaused.Thatsaid,trains6&7haveshowedsomethermalactivityforthedurationoftheconflictsofar-likelyindicatingsomebaselineoperationswerestilloccurring(likelytoreducerestarttime).Lastweek,satellitedataalsopickedupsomenewthermalactivityatQatargasTrains1,2,and3,indicatingthatthefacilitymightbepreparingforapotentialrestart.

Outsideofthemiddleeast,Australia'sWheatstoneLNG(8.9mtpa)restartedoneoftwotrainsonApril7th.Thesecondremainsofflineforrepairs.IntheUS,GoldenPass(18mtpaoncefullyramped)ispreparingtoloaditsfirstLNGcargothismonthandfeedgasflowscontinuetoramp.Thatsaid,someheadlinesindicatethefirstcargosaleswerepostponedinrecentdays(more

here

).PeruLNG(4.5mtpa)appearstobeofflinesincethebeginningofAprilafterinitiallyresumingoperationsfollowinggaspipelinedisruptions.Cheniere'sCorpusChristiLNGStage3Train6isincommissioningafterTrain5achievedsubstantialcompletioninlateMarchwithtotalprojecttimingtrackingslightlyaheadofguidance

fromthe4Q25call.

Exhibit1:Afteranoutagepushedexportslowerpost-storm,AustralianLNGexportscontinuetorampbackup.

AustralianLNGExports(weekly,mt)

AustraliaPacificDarwinGladstoneGorgonIchthysNorthWestShelfPlutoPreludeFLNGWheatstone

2/13/20262/20/20262/27/20263/6/20263/13/20263/20/20263/27/20264/3/20264/10/2026

1.8

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

-

Source:Vortexa,MorganStanleyResearch

Exhibit2:FeedgasflowsatGoldenPasshaverecoveredafterabriefdisruptionasthefacilitycontinuescommissioning.

GoldenPassFeedgasFlows(mmcf/d)

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

Source:Platts,MorganStanleyResearch

4

Exhibit3:AllQataricargoesoutsidethestraithavebeen

deliveredtofinaldestinations.

QatarWeeklyLNGArrivalsbyDestination(mt)

AsiaEuropeMiddleEast

2/28:IranConflict

Began

-->Scheduledarrivalsonthewater

2.0

1.8

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

-

Source:Vortexa,MorganStanleyResearch

Exhibit4:~1mtofalready-loadedLNGisstillinsidethe

PersianGulf.MostofitisdestinedforSoutheastAsiaoncetheStraitre-opens.

PakistanIndiaKuwaitBelgium1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

-

ScheduledDeliveries(loadedandbehindStrait,mt)

1.2

Source:Vortexa,MorganStanleyResearch

Demand.Globalimportsex-Europenowsit15%loweroverthelast30daysy/y,or-3.7mtlowery/y.ThisisdrivenbyChina(-34%),SouthKorea(-17%),Japan(-12%),andlndia(-9%).Lookingatjustthelasttwoweeks,importsare~1.6mtbelowthesameperiodlastyear.LowerconsumptionisoffsettingabouthalfoftheMiddleEastsupplyloss(Qatar+UAEtypicallyexport~7mtpermonth).Thisreflectssomedemanddestructionfromthe

conflict,butisalsoaidedbyseasonallymildweather.Chinaalsore-soldahistoricallyhighvolumeofLNGcargoesinMarch,butthishasdroppedoffsharplyinApril.lnEurope,

inventoriesarecurrently17%below2025levelsand25%belowthe2016-25average.

Exhibit5:Overthelast30days,globalimportsex-Europehavelowered15%y/y.

2021-2025Range5YAverage20252026

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

30

28

26

24

22

20

18

Globalex.EuropeLNGImports(rolling30-day,mt)

Source:Vortexa,MorganStanleyResearch

Exhibit6:China'sLNGimportsare34%loweroverthelast30daysy/yandre-exportsoverthelast30dayshavebeentrendinglower.

2021-2025Range5YAverage

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAug

2026

NovDec

2025

Oct

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

ChinaLNGImports(rolling30-day,mt)

Sep

Source:Vortexa,MorganStanleyResearch

MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH5

RESEARCH

Morganstanley

Exhibit7:Chinare-exportedarecordamountofLNGinMarch,butthislargelystoppedinAprilsofar.

MonthlyChinaLNGExports(mt)

2023202420252026

AprMayJunJulAugSep

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

-

JanFebMar

Nov

Dec

Oct

Source:Vortexa,MorganStanleyResearch.Note:April2026representsmonth-to-datere-exportsasof4.19.26.

IDEA

Exhibit8:Europeangasinventoriescurrently25%belowthe2016-25average.

NaturalGasInventoryUtilization(%ofavailablestoragecapacity)

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

2016-25rangeAvg20252026

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Source:Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearch

Exhibit9:Weseethemarketinashortfallthisyear,movingclosertobalancein2027-28.

20202021202220232024202520262027202820292030

GlobalDemand351370396399404423440464499525549

SequentialGrowth2%5%7%1%1%5%4%5%7%5%5%

GlobalEffectiveCapacity412407417436440446461509551590636

SequentialGrowth7%-1%2%5%1%1%3%10%8%7%8%

GlobalSupply-AdjustedforDowntime370354369404404424425468507543585

UtilizationRate90%87%89%93%92%95%92%92%92%92%92%

Surplus/(shortage)19(16)(27)5(0)1(15)481836

%surplus/(shortage)5%-4%-7%1%0%0%-4%1%2%4%7%

GlobalSupply(ex-potentialFIDs)412407417436440446461509551590631

MSeSupplyFromUnsanctionedProjects----------5

Surplus/(shortage)at92%utilization(ExcludingpotentialFIDs)19(16)(27)5(0)1(15)481831

Source:MorganStanleyResearch

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

Idea

6

VentureGlobal(VG),Overweight,PT$20

MaintainOverweight,PTof$20/sh($22prior).VentureGlobalıs"designone,build

many"approachformid-scalefactory-madetrainsprovidesattractivespeedtomarketandoutperformancevs.nameplate,astrengthrelativetopeers.Further,VGıscontracting

strategyoffersthemostupsideexposuretoelevatedglobalLNGprices,with~30%of

2026cargosalesopentothemarketasofthestartofMarchandanaverageof40%

2026-29.For2026,each$1changeinmarginsonthisunsoldcapacityimpacts2026

EBITDAby$575-625MMasofthe4QcallinearlyMarch,makingVGthemostexposednameinourcoveragetoelevatedglobalLNGprices.Guidanceassumesanopen

liquefactionfeerangeof$5-6/mmbtuforunsoldcargoes,whilethecurrentforwardcurveimpliesamargincloserto$8-9/mmbtu.

Bolt-onsprovideupside.WithourdoubleupgradeinMarch

here,

webegantogiveVGcreditforvalue-accretivebolt-onexpansionsatbothPlaqueminesandCP2.Currently,

managementisplanningfor6.4mtpa(8trains)ofexpectedcapacityateachsite.CP2ıs

bolt-onisexpectedtoFIDinearly2027(firstproductionlate2028)andregulatoryfilingswillbeimminent,percompanyguidance.AtPlaquemines,VGistargetingabolt-onFIDinmid/late2027withfirstproductioninearly/mid2029.VGfiledforFERCandDOE

approvalinlate2025.

Exhibit10:VGhas~30%of2026cargosalesopentothemarketandanaverageof~40%2026-29.

VGTotalCapacity(mt)

SPAOpen

20222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

-

Exhibit11:VGexpectstoleverageexistingspaceon-siteatbothPlaqueminesandCP2forvalue-accretivebolt-onexpansions.

Source:Companypresentation

Source:MorganStanleyResearch

MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH7

CheniereEnergy(LNG),Overweight,PT$308

MaintainOverweight,PTof$308/sh($313prior).CheniereremainsadominantLNG

playerintheUSandisstructurallyadvantagedcomparedtosmallerindependentUS

peersgivenitsexistingplatform,withstablecashflowbackedbylong-termcontracts.

Almost95%ofthecompany'sliquefactioncapacityissoldunderfixed-pricesales

agreementsthrough2030,supportingstablecashflowregardlessofwhereLNGpricesgo.Moreimportantly,theimprovedmacrobackdropincreasesthelikelihoodofadditionalgrowthprojectsreachingapositiveFIDoverthenext1-2years.Includinganother15mtpaofgrowthbeyondCorpusChristiStage3(includingTrains8&9),weforecast$32/shinrun-ratedistributablecashflowby2030—a~13%yieldonthecurrentstockprice.As

CCLStage3continuestorampon-schedule(firstLNGachievedatyear-end2024),focusshiftstowardexecutiononcommissioningandopenvolumeexposureforthisyearandnextastrainscomeonline.

Growthinchescloser.CheniereexpectsPhase1oftheplannedexpansionsatCCLand

SPLtoincreasetotalproductionto~71-75mtpawithapathwayto>100mtpaoftotal

productionlonger-term.InearlyFebruary,ChenierefileditsFERCapplicationfortheCCLExpansionProjectinearlyFebruary(upto24mtpa,inclusiveofdebottlenecking)andwilllooktoFIDonetrainin2027withnonewtanks,berths,orpipelinesrequired.AtSPL,

CheniereexpectsaFERCpermitinlate2026toenablea2027FIDforTrain7–thefirstofthreetrainsinthetwo-phaseproject(peakproductionof~20mtpa).Cheniereis

budgetingforTrain7limitednoticestoproceedin2026andthetrainisnowfullycommercializedandlookstowardscontractingfuturetrains.

Exhibit12:WeforecastCheniere'sdistributablecashflowatarun-rateof$32/sh…

$35.00

$30.00

$25.00

$20.00

$15.00

$10.00

$5.00

$-

$26.64

$24.04

$22.76

$16.24

CheniereDCF($/sh)

$31.90

2023A2024A2025A2026ERun-Rate

LNG

Price

$19.9$16.0$12.8$13.4$10.0

Source:MorganStanleyResearch.Note:LNGpriceisbasedontheMSeAsianLNGprice(JKM).

Exhibit13:…Supportingayieldof13%onthecurrentshareprice.

14%

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

CheniereDCFYield

13%

11%

10%

9%

6%

2023A2024A2025A2026ERun-Rate

LNG

Price

$19.9$16.0$12.8$13.4$10.0

Source:MorganStanleyResearch.Note:LNGpriceisbasedontheMSeAsianLNGprice(JKM).

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

IDEA

8

ExcelerateEnergy(EE),Equal-weight,PT$40

Jamaicaassetprovidesdownstreamplatform.AttheendofMarch2025,EEannounceditspurchaseofNewFortressEnergy'sJamaicaassets,providing~30Tbtuofcontracteddemand.ThegassalesandLNGsupplyarebothindexedtoHenryHub,mitigatingany

commoditypricerisk.Withtheacquisition,managementdiscussedpotentialforthese

assetstoprovideaplatformforfurthergrowthinthecountry,includingoptimizationofexistingoperationsandunderutilizedplants,expandingtheCHPplant,supportingisland-andregion-widefuelswitching,andLNGbunkeringlonger-termtoserveopportunitiesintheAtlanticBasinmorebroadly.Morenearterm,EEhasidentifiedopportunityfortheconversionofJamalcounitsfromheavydieseltonaturalgas,althoughcommercialtermsneedtobefinalized.

Stablecashflows,butmacrouncertainty.OnOctober28th,2025,EEannouncedthesigningofadefinitiveagreementforafullyintegratedLNGimportterminalinIraq(more

here

).However,theongoingconflictintheMiddleEastpresentsmodestuncertaintyandwelookforwardtoreceivingupdatesontheprojectonthe1Q26earningscall.We

continuetomodelamid-yearstartoftheprojectandassociatednew-buildFSRU(newlynamedAcadia).EE'sQatarEnergy/Petrobanglagassalescontractstartedupin1Q,buttheongoingdisruptionintheStraitofHormuzhashalteddeliveries.Thisremoves~$1MMofEBITDAforeachmonththatgassalesdonotoccur.

Exhibit14:InlateMarch,EEannounceditsacquisitionofNFE'sJamaicaassets,raisingEBITDAby~$110MM/yr.

Source:CompanyPresentation,April2025

Exhibit15:EE'sIraqterminal(announcedinOctober2025)isexpectedtoaddbetween$105-110MMofannualEBITDA(5xmultipleon$520-550MMcapex).

Source:MorganStanleyResearch.

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

Idea

MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH9

NextDecade(NEXT),Equal-weight,PT$8

RemainEqual-weight,raisingPTto$8/sh($7prior).RioGrandePhase1(17.61mtpa)isunderconstructionwithNEXTexpectinga1H27startup–anaccelerationvs2H27prior.ThisisconsistentwithBechtelıstrackrecordonothersimilarprojectsandwelook

forwardtoreceivingfurtherupdateshere.Weadjustourmodelforslightmarginuplift,andestimate~40Tbtusofunsoldcommissioningcargosin2027nettoNEXT(~78TbtuforthefullPhase1rampin2027-28).

Train4details.Train4isexpectedtoproduce~5.9mtpaofLNG(totalRioGrande

capacityunderconstructionnowat~24mtpa)uponguaranteedsubstantialcompletioninthebackhalfof2030.About77%ofthevolumesissoldunder20-yearSPAsindexedtoHenryHubplusafixedfee.NEXTestimatestotalprojectcostat$6.7Bwithspending

financedroughly60%/40%debt/equityattheprojectlevel.Whilethecompanycurrentlyholdsa40%interestintheproject,thiswillincreaseto60%afterequitypartnersreceiveacertainreturnoninvestment(managementexpectsmid-2030sata$5opencargo

margin).

Train5details.SimilartoTrain4,Train5willproduce~5.9mtpaofLNGandisfully

commercialized,with~75%ofthevolumecontractedunder20-yearHenryHubindexedSPAs.Theprojectcostisroughly$6.7Bandwillbefinancedat60%/40%debt/equityattheprojectlevel.NEXTownsa50%interestinthistrain,growingto70%afterequity

partnersreachtheirreturntarget.Thefifthtrainhasguaranteedsubstantialcompletionin1H31andisexpectedtoflipto70%ownershipinthemid-2030s,consistentwithTrain4.

GrowthbeyondTrain5.NEXTcontinuestomessageaspirationsforprojectsbeyond

Phase1andTrains4&5.Managementpre-filedtheTrain6expansionwithFERCon

November24th(in-linewithexpectationstodosobeforeyear-end2025)andexpectstosubmitafullfilinginmid-2026(goalforpermitsinhandasearlyas2027).WhileTrain6isadjacenttoTrain5andwouldbeabletoutilizesharedinfrastructure,Trains7&8are

likelytoundergoaseparatepermitprocessandrequireanadditionalleveeand

infrastructure.ManagementexpectstocommercializeTrain6inconjunctionwith

permittingandaimstobegincommercializingthefacility,butnoofftakecontractshavebeenannouncedyet.

10

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

IDEA

Exhibit16:Priorto4Q25earnings,NEXTsoldforwardaportionofPhase1volumesforpre-Train3DFCD–reducingopen

exposurenear-term.

TotalCapacitynettoNEXT(Tbtu)

SPAMarketing

202720282029203020312032

500

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

-

Exhibit17:WeestimateanSPArateof$2.35onPhase1and$2.53onTrains4&5.

2.602.502.402.302.202.102.001.901.801.70

1.60

Phase1Trains4&5

SPARatesbyProject

Source:MorganStanleyResearch.

Source:MorganStanleyResearch..

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

Idea

MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH11

RioGrandeLNGProjectOverview

Source:CompanyPresentation

LiquefactionFacility:TheRioGrandeprojectisanupto27mtpa(5train)liquefaction

facilityinBrownsville,Texas,situatedwithinthePortofBrownsville.Thecompany

declaredpositiveFIDonits3-trainf