2025全球安全形势报告

Reportonthe

GlobalSecur)tySituatjon

(2025)

Atpresent,theprofoundchangesunseeninacenturyareunfoldingwithever-greatermomentumacrosstheglobe,entwinedwithanaccumulationofstructuralanddeep-seatedchallengesinthesecuritydomain,renderingtheglobalsecuritysituationincreasinglytense.Theinternationalbalanceofpowerisundergoingprofoundrealignments,withcontributionstoworldpeaceandjusticefromamyriadofpartiesexhibitingatrendofpolarization.Securitychallengesareemergingwithalarmingfrequencyacrossvariousgeopoliticalblocs.Confrontedwithaworldbesetbyescalatinginstability,Chinaprovidestheworldwithpreciouscertaintythroughthesustainedstabilityofitsdomesticandforeignpolicies.Chinafirmlypursuesthepathofpeacefuldevelopment,remainscommittedtoimplementingtheGlobalSecurityInitiative,andworkstobuildacommunitywithasharedfutureforhumanity.Inthiscontext,theChinaInstituteofInternationalStudiesandtheCenterforGlobalSecurityInitiativeStudiesassembledaspecializedteamtoundertakesystematicresearchontheglobalsecuritysituationin2025andproducedthisresearchreport.

CIISReport

Reportonthe

GlobalSecuritySituation

(2025)

ChinaInstituteofInternationalStudies

February2026

Contents

01Abstract2

02GlobalSecuritySituationGrowsIncreasingly6

Tense

(I)Globalarmedconflictsescalate,andthearmsraceintensifies6

(II)Globalstrategicstabilityconfrontsgravechallenges11

(III)Humanitariancrises,terrorism,transnationalcrimes,and15

othernon-traditionalsecuritythreatshaveassumedheightenedprominence

03ContributionstoWorldPeaceandJusticefromA22

MyriadofPartiesExhibitingaTrendofPolarization

(I)TheGlobalSouthemergesasapivotalforceinupholdingworld22peaceandjustice

(II)TheWestincreasinglyemergesasadestabilizingfactorfor27theworld

04TheSecuritySituationinVariousRegionsAcross34

theGlobeRemainsComplexandSevere

(I)ThesecuritysituationintheAsia-Pacificregionissubjected34tosignificantshocksandtests

(II)TheUkrainecrisisdragsonandEuroperemainsmiredina40

securitydilemma

(III)TheMiddleEastquagmireisinurgentneedofresolution44

(IV)TheturbulentsituationinSouthAsiaintensifies47

(V)Africafacesmountingsecuritychallenges50

(VI)TheunrestinLatinAmericagathersmomentumwith52

increasingintensity

05China,sRoleasanAnchorforWorldPeaceand

StabilityBecomesIncreasinglyProminent

(I)Upholdingthepathofpeacefuldevelopmentandcontinuouslypromotingglobalmodernizationfeaturingpeacefuldevelopment,mutuallybeneficialcooperation,andcommonprosperitythroughChinesemodernization

(II)FirmlysupportingtheUnitedNationsinplayingacentralroleininternationalaffairs

(III)Promotingcoordinationandsoundinteractionsamongmajorcountries

(IV)PracticingtheChinesewaytoaddresshotspotissues

(V)Providingcoordinatedresponsestotraditionalandnon-traditionalsecuritythreats

(VI)ImprovingtheplatformsandmechanismsforadvancingtheGlobalSecurityInitiative

58

58

61

64

65

67

70

06Conclusion76

StrengtheningGlobalSolidarity76

01

Abstract

2

ReportontheGlobalSecuritySituation(2025)

01Abstract

Atpresent,theprofoundchangesunseeninacenturyareunfoldingwithever-great-ermomentumacrosstheglobe,entwinedwithanaccumulationofstructuralanddeep-seatedchallengesinthesecuritydomain.Theacutenessandcomplexityofinter-nationalcontradictionsandstrugglesarebecomingincreasinglypronounced.Againstthisbackdrop,theglobalsecuritysituationin2025exhibitsseveraldistinctivecharac-teristics.

Firstly,theglobalsecuritysituationisincreasinglyfraughtwithtension.Thepeacedefi-citcontinuestowiden,accompaniedbyamarkedescalationininternationalconflictsandregionalturmoil.Thearmsraceisgatheringalarmingmomentum,andglobalstra-tegicstabilityisunderseverestress.Non-traditionalsecuritythreatsloomeverlarger.

Secondly,theinternationalbalanceofpowerisundergoingsustainedandprofoundrealignments,withcontributionstoworldpeaceandjusticefromamyriadofpartiesexhibitingatrendofpolarization.TheGlobalSouthisactivelyassumingresponsibility,emergingasakeyforceinsafeguardinginternationalpeaceandjustice.Conversely,hegemonism,powerpolitics,andunilateralismarerampantamongcertainWesterncountries.Thesearethesamecountriesthatfrequentlyresorttoarmedintimidationorevenmilitarystrikesagainstothercountries.Additionally,theinternalinstabilitywithintheWesternblocisincreasinglybecomingadestabilizingfactorfortheworld.

3

Abstract

Thirdly,securitychallengesareemergingwithalarmingfrequencyacrossvariousgeo-politicalblocs.TheAsia-Pacificregionissubjectedtosignificantsecurityshocksandtrials.TheUkrainecrisisdragsonandcontinuestoensnareEuropeinapersistentse-curitydilemma.TheMiddleEastisengulfedinanintensifyingmaelstromofturmoil.SouthAsiaisexperiencingamarkedescalationofinstability.Africaisgrapplingwithmountingsecuritychallenges.LatinAmericaiswitnessingitspeaceandstabilitybeingundermined.

Fourthly,China’sroleasananchorforworldpeaceandsecuritybecomesincreasinglyprominent.Amidaworldbesetbyescalatingturbulence,Chinahasdemonstrateditsresponsibilityasamajorcountrybyansweringthequestionraisedbythetimesthroughtheoreticalandpracticalinnovation.Byprovidingtheworldwithpreciouscertaintythroughthesustainedstabilityofitsdomesticandforeignpolicies,Chinafirmlypursuesthepathofpeacefuldevelopment,remainscommittedtoimplement-ingtheGlobalSecurityInitiative,andworkstobuildacommunitywithasharedfutureforhumanity.

UNheldaculturalexchangeeventcommemoratingthe80thanniversaryofthevictoryoftheWorld

Anti-FascistWarandthefoundingoftheUnitedNationsonAugust13,2025

(Source:websiteofthePermanentMissionofthePeople’sRepublicofChinatotheUN)

ReportontheGlobalSecuritySituation(2025)

02

GlobalSecuritySituationGrows

IncreasinglyTense

●Globalarmedconflictsescalate,andthearmsraceintensifies

●Globalstrategicstabilityconfrontsgravechallenges

●Humanitariancrises,terrorism,transnationalcrimes,andothernon-traditionalsecuritythreatshave

assumedheightenedprominence

ReportontheGlobalSecuritySituation(2025)

6

02

GlobalSecuritySituationGrows

IncreasinglyTense

Theworldisdescendingintoastateofheightenedinstability.Geopoliticalconflictsareflaringupacrossmultiplefrontswithindiversegeopoliticalblocs.Globalmilitaryspendinghassurgedtounprecedentedlevels.Bothnuclearandconventionalarmsracesareintensifying,andarmscontrolmechanismsareonthebrinkofpartialdisintegration.Non-traditionalsecuritythreatsareloomingeverlarger.

(I)Globalarmedconflictsescalate,andthearmsraceintensifies

Thepeacedeficitiswideningrelentlessly,asinternationalconflictsandregionalturmoilescalatewithalarmingfrequency.Accordingtothe“GlobalPeaceIndex2025”publishedbytheInstituteforEconomics&Peace,59state-basedconflictsarecurrentlyunfolding—arecordhighsincetheendofWorldWarII—pushingglobalpeacetoitslowestlevelsincetheindex’sinception.①

Major-countryrelationshavebeennavigatingacomplexlandscape,markedbybothturbulenceandtwists.Certainmajorcountriesremainentrenchedinthe

①InstituteforEconomicsandPeace,“GlobalPeaceIndex2025,”June18,2025,

https://www

./wp-content/uploads/2025/06/GPI-2025-web.pdf.

7

GlobalSecuritySituationGrows

IncreasinglyTense

perilousgameofpowerpolitics,ensnaredbythezero-summentalityandrelentlesslypursuingabsoluteandexclusivesecurity.Consequently,thetrajectoryofmajor-countryrelations,shiftingfromcoordinationtoconfrontation,hasnotwitnessedafundamentalreversal.The2025editionoftheUSNationalSecurityStrategyreportstatesthatalthoughtheUnitedStatesdoesnotsubscribetothenotionof“globaldominance,”itwillnonethelessseektoensureabalanceofpowerandpreventothercountriesfromseizingglobalorregionaldominance.ThereportalsomakesclearattheoutsetthattheUnitedStatesmustremaintheworld’sstrongest,richest,mostpowerful,andmostsuccessfulcountryfordecadestocome.Moreover,thereportemphasizesinitsprefacethatintheyearstocome,theUnitedStateswillstrengthenitspoweracrosstheboard,makingthecountrysafer,richer,freer,greater,andmorepowerfulthaneverbefore.ThissuggeststhattheUnitedStateswillnotabandonitslong-standingpursuitofglobalhegemony,butwilladjustitsstrategy,pace,andsoon.ThereportacknowledgesthatChina-USrelationshaveevolvedfromaninitialrelationshipbetween“amature,affluentcountryandapoorcountry”intoonebetween“twonear-peers.”Goingforward,theUnitedStateswillrebalanceitseconomicrelationshipwithChinabyprioritizingreciprocityandfairnessinordertosafeguardUSeconomicindependence.①Throughout2025,China-USrelationshavebeensubjecttoseverefluctuations,withtheUnitedStatesinitiatingmultipleroundsoffiercecompetitionacrosstariffs,trade,industrialcapacity,andtechnologicaldomains.Nevertheless,confrontedwiththestarkrealities,theUnitedStateshasultimatelyoptedtoengagewithChinaontheprinciplesofequality,mutualrespect,andmutualbenefit.OnOctober30,ChinesePresidentXiJinpingandUSPresidentDonaldTrumpheldameetinginBusan,steeringthebilateralrelationshipawayfromthebrinkandtowardaturnaround.②Meanwhile,theUkrainecrisispersistsinitsintractability,exacerbatingtheantagonismbetweenEuropeandRussia.PoliticiansfromNATOandvariousEuropeancountrieshavecontinuedtohype

①“NationalsecuritystrategyoftheUnitedStatesofAmerica,”theWhiteHousewebsite,No-vember2025,p.ii,p.1,p.10,p.20,

/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-Na

-tional-Security-Strategy.pdf.

②“AmbassadorXieFenghighlightedmajorbenefitsofthemeetingbetweenChineseandAmeri-canheadsofstatefortheAmericanbusinesscommunity,”websiteoftheChineseEmbassyintheUnit-edStates,November4,2025,

/chn/dshd/202511/t20251104_11746370

.htm.

ReportontheGlobalSecuritySituation(2025)

8

upthe“Russianthreat,”allegingRussia’spurportedintentionsto“invade”Europe,withsomeseniorNATOofficialseventhreateningtolaunch“pre-emptivestrikes”againstRussia.Despitehigh-levelengagements,US-Russiarelationsremainmiredinatrough.AlthoughthenewUSNationalSecurityStrategyrefrainsfromexplicitlylabelingRussiaasahostiletarget,thetensofthousandsofsanctionsimposedbytheUnitedStates,Europe,andotherWesternalliesonRussiapersistunabated,withnewmeasurescontinuouslybeingadded.ThemilitarystandoffbetweenNATOandRussiahasintensified,characterizedbyanescalationoftargetedmilitaryexercisesonbothsides.TheUnitedStateshascommittedbillionsofdollarsinmilitaryaidtoUkraine,yetithasshiftedthefinancialburdenontoNATO.①Furthermore,theUSNationalDefenseAuthorizationActforFiscalYear2026mandatestheprovisionofUSD400millioninannualmilitaryassistancetoUkraineovertheensuingtwoyears.

Longstandinginternationalsecurityhotspotspersistintheirintricateandintractablenature,whilenewsecurityhotspotsarerapidlyemerging.TheUkrainecrisiscontinuestodragon,withfundamentalcontradictionsunderlyingissuessuchasthePalestine-Israelconflict,Myanmar’sinternalconflict,andtheKoreanPeninsulasituationremainingunaddressed.SecuritychallengeshaveincreasedinseveralAfricancountries,andAfghanistan’speaceandreconstructionendeavorsaremiredincomplexities.Inthemeantime,IndiaandPakistanhavewitnessedthemostsevereconfrontationinovertwodecades,IsraelandIranhaveengagedinthe“12-DayWar,”theUnitedStateshaslaunchedairstrikesonIraniannuclearfacilities,ThailandandCambodiahaveclashedalongtheirborder,andAfghanistanandPakistanhaveresortedtomilitaryhostilities.Additionally,theUnitedStateshasresortedtomilitaryintimidationagainstcountriessuchasVenezuela,Nigeria,andColombia.

Therelentlesssurgeinmilitaryspendinghasbecomethenewnormal.Afterhisresumptionofthepresidency,Trumphasadheredtothestrategyof“peacethroughstrength,”championing“rebuildingtheUSarmedforces”and“restoringAmericandeterrence,”therebyprecipitatingasubstantialuptickindefenseexpenditures.InDecember2025,TrumpratifiedtheNationalDefenseAuthorizationActforFiscalYear

①“NationalSecurity-Achievements,”theWhiteHousewebsite,

/

issues/national-security/.

GlobalSecuritySituationGrows

IncreasinglyTense

9

2026,allocatingacolossalsumofUSD900.6billiontotheUSdefensebudgetfortheforthcomingfiscalyear.Intandem,NATOhasannouncedthatitsmemberstatesshallelevatetheirdefensespendingto5%oftheirrespectivegrossdomesticproducts(GDP)bytheyear2035.Europe,inresponse,isexpeditingits“remilitarization”steps,withtheCounciloftheEuropeanUnionsanctioningthe“ReArmEuropePlan”(subsequentlyrechristenedasthe“Readiness2030”plan),whichenvisagesthemobilizationofEUR800billionoverafour-yearspantofortifythecontinent’sdefense.CanadahasunveiledamilitarybudgetofapproximatelyCAD62.7billionforthe2025-2026fiscalcycle,constitutingroughly2%ofitsGDP,whiletheUnitedKingdomhasoutlinedplanstoaugmentitsdefensespendingto2.5%ofGDPby2027.Japan,meanwhile,hassetitsdefensebudgetforfiscalyear2026atanunprecedentedJPY8.8454trillion(approximatelyUSD56.5billion),markinga14thconsecutiveyearofgrowth.

MilitaryspendinginSouthKoreahasalsowitnessedacceleratedgrowth.AsearlyasDecember2023,SouthKorea’sfive-yearnationaldefenseplanfor2024-2028unveiledanallocationofKRW348.7trillion(approximatelyCNY1.9trillion),markinga5%increasecomparedtotheprecedingperiod(2023-2027).In2025,SouthKorea’sdefensebudgetstoodatKRW61.25trillion(approximatelyCNY321.337billion),accountingfor2.32%ofitsGDP.InOctober2025,SouthKoreafurtherannouncedasubstantialhikeinitsdefensebudgetfor2026,withan8.2%increasefromthe2025level,reachingKRW66.3trillion(approximatelyCNY335.5billionorUSD47.7billion).①Meanwhile,thebudgetdocumentssubmittedbytheRussiangovernmenttotheStateDumafor2025-2027revealedthatRussia’sdefensebudgetfor2025wouldamounttoRUB13.5trillion(approximatelyUSD145billion),representingaroughly30%increasefrom2024andaccountingfor6.3%ofitsGDP.However,thisproportion

①“SouthKoreaReleasesFive-YearNationalDefensePlanwithMilitarySpendingofCNY1.9Trillion,”YonhapNewsAgency,December12,2023,

https://cn.yna.co.kr/view/

ACK20231212003100881

;“SouthKoreanGovernmentRespondstoNewUSMilitarySpendingCriteria:SouthKorea’sShareAlreadyRelativelyHigh,”YonhapNewsAgency,June20,2025,

https://cn.yna.co.kr/view/ACK20250620000900881

;“LeeJae-myung:SouthKoreatoSignificantlyIncreaseNationalDefenseBudget,”,October1,2025,

/gj/20251001/

t20251001_527383342.shtml.

ReportontheGlobalSecuritySituation(2025)

10

isprojectedtodeclineto5.6%and5.1%in2026and2027,respectively.①

Chinahasrationallydeterminedthescaleofitsdefenseexpenditures.ComparedwithcountriessuchastheUnitedStates,China’sdefensespendingremainsrelativelylow,whethermeasuredbyitsproportionofGDP,itsshareofnationalfiscalexpenditures,orpercapitadefensespendingforbothciviliansandmilitarypersonnel.Forinstance,in2025,thenationalgeneralpublicbudgetallocatedCNY1.81trillionfordefenseexpenditures,markinga7.2%increasefromthepreviousyear’sexecutedamount.Thisgrowthratehasremainedconsistentforthreeconsecutiveyearssince2023andhasregisteredsingle-digitgrowthfortenconsecutiveyears.TheproportionofdefensespendinginGDPhasbeenmaintainedbelow1.5%formanyyears,significantlylowerthanthelevelexceeding3%ofGDPintheUnitedStates.Intermsofpercapitadefensespendingforcivilians,theUnitedStatesspends13timesmorethanChina,whilecountriessuchastheUnitedKingdom,France,Germany,andeventhethreeBalticstatesspend4to5timesmorethanChina.Inthe2025fiscalyear,Japan’spercapitadefenseexpenditureanddefensepersonnelcostswerethreetimesandmorethantwicethoseofChina,respectively.②Chinamaintainstransparencyinvariousaspectsofitsdefensebudget,includingitsscale,structure,andfundamentalpurposes.Since2007,

①“MultipleConsiderationsBehindRussia’sIncreaseinNationalDefenseBudget,People’sLiberationArmyDaily,October17,2024,p.11;“Answerstomediaquestions—FollowingtheEAEUsummitinMinsk,VladimirPutinansweredquestionsfromRussianjournalists,”June27,2025,

http://

en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/77316.

②“China’sArmsControl,Disarmament,andNonproliferationintheNewEra,”websiteoftheStateCouncilInformationOfficeofthePeople’sRepublicofChina,November27,2025,

http://www

./zfbps/zfbps_2279/202511/t20251127_940277.html;“China’sdefenseexpenditureasapercentageofGDPlowerthanworldaverage,”Xinhuanet,March4,2025,

/

politics/20250304/911105e22445431e9076348a7842bd5e/c.html

;“WuQian,SpokespersonforthedelegationofthePeople’sLiberationArmyandthePeople’sArmedPoliceForceattheThirdSessionofthe14thNationalPeople’sCongress,AcceptsMediaInterview,”websiteoftheMinistryofNationalDefenseofChina,March9,2025,

/gfbw/xwfyr/ztjzh/16373832.html

;“GDPTargetHighlights‘ProactiveandAmbitious’Approach,DefenseSpendingGrowthRemainsFlatforThreeConsecutiveYears:China’s‘TwoKeyFigures’DemonstrateConfidence,”People’sDailyOnline,March6,2025,

/2025/n1/2025/0306/c460142-40432029.html

;

“ForeignMinistrySpokespersonGuoJiakun’sRegularPressConferenceonDecember16,2025,”websiteoftheMinistryofForeignAffairsofthePeople’sRepublicofChina,December16,2025,

/fyrbt_673021/jzhsl_673025/202512/t20251216_11774310.shtml

.

GlobalSecuritySituationGrows

IncreasinglyTense

11

ChinahasannuallysubmittedreportsonitsmilitaryexpendituresforthepreviousfiscalyeartotheUnitedNationsSystemfortheStandardizedReportingofMilitaryExpenditures.①

(II)Globalstrategicstabilityconfrontsgravechallenges

Nuclear-armedstatespersistinamplifyingthesignificanceofnuclearweaponswithintheirnationalsecurityframeworks,acceleratingthepaceofnuclearmodernization.TheUnitedStates,inparticular,hassubstantiallyaugmenteditsnuclearbudget,expeditingtheupgradeofits“nucleartriad”deterrent.Forthefiscalyear2026,theUSDepartmentofDefenseenvisagesanuclearbudgetallocationofUSD60billion,anincreaseofUSD10.8billionfromthepreviousfiscalyear,representingariseof22%.②TheTrumpadministrationnotonlyproposedbutalsopropelledforwardthe“GoldenDome”missiledefensesystem,explicitlydesignedtocounterperceived“peeradversaries”or“near-peeradversaries,”whilealsocontemplatingthedeploymentofspace-basedinterceptorsinouterspace—amovethatflagrantlycontravenestheprincipleofpeacefulusesenshrinedintheOuterSpaceTreaty.Furthermore,theUSDepartmentofEnergyhasproclaimedthattheproductionofthefirstliveunitofthenewB61-13nuclearbombwascompletedoneyearaheadofschedule.③Concurrently,theUnitedStatesisforgingaheadwithplanstooverhaulitsnuclearcommandandcontrolsystems,havingalreadyinitiatedtestingofthenext-generation“doomsdayplane”earmarkedfornuclearcommandoperations.

Russiahasbeenvigorouslypropellingforwarditsresearchanddevelopmentof

①“China’sArmsControl,Disarmament,andNonproliferationintheNewEra,”websiteoftheStateCouncilInformationOfficeofthePeople’sRepublicofChina,November27,2025,

http://www

./zfbps/zfbps_2279/202511/t20251127_940277.html.

②USDepartmentofWar,“BackgroundBriefingonFY2026DefenseBudget,”June26,2025,

/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/4228828/background-briefing-on-fy-2026-de

-fense-budget/#:~:text=The%20nuclear%20enterprise%20also%20is%20in%20modernization%2C%20so,and%20modernize%20all%20three%20legs%20of%20our%20triad.

③USDepartmentofEnergy,“NNSAcompletesassemblyofthefirstB61-13nucleargravitybombaheadofschedule,”May19,2025,

/nnsa/articles/nnsa-completes

-assembly-first-b61-13-nuclear-gravity-bomb-ahead-schedule.

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newweapons.ChiefoftheGeneralStaffoftheRussianFederationArmedForcesValeryGerasimovrevealedthatthe“Burevestnik”nuclear-poweredcruisemissileaccomplisheda14,000-kilometertestflightonOctober21,withitscapabilitiesyettoreachtheirzenith.PresidentPutin,onOctober29,underscoredthatthe“Burevestnik”boastsashortactivationtimeandanunlimitedoperationalrange.Furthermore,Russiahasundertakentrialsofthe“Poseidon”unmannedunderwatervehicle,outfittedwithanuclearpropulsionsystem,notonlylaunchingitfromasubmarineviaaboosterengineforthefirsttimebutalsoignitingitsnuclear-poweredpropulsionsystem.

TheUnitedStatesandRussiahavepersistentlyengagedinareciprocalexchangeofnucleardeterrencesignals,precipitatingaflurryofglobalnuclearexercises.InOctober,theUnitedStatesorchestrateditsannual“GlobalThunder2025”nuclearcommandandcontrolexercise,featuring,forthefirsttime,theexecutionof“pre-emptivenuclearstrikesagainstRussia”asacorescenario.Inthesamemonth,NATOinitiateditsannual“SteadfastNoon”nuclearexercise,allowinglimitedmediaaccessforthefirsttimetoamplifyitsdeterrentmessage.Russia,incollaborationwithBelarus,commencedthe“Zapad-2025”militarydrillinSeptember,publiclyconductingacomprehensiverehearsalofnuclearstrikeproceduresforthefirsttime,withhypersonicmissilesdirectedtowardNATO’sfrontiers.Moreover,RussiaconductedasweepingstrategicnuclearforcesexerciseinOctober,showcasingthefullspectrumofits“nucleartriad”strategicnuclearforcesystem,encompassingland-,sea-,andair-basednuclearstrikeplatforms.

Othernuclear-armedstateshavealsomanifestedtheirnucleardeterrencethroughdiversemodalities.OnJuly10,theUnitedKingdomandFranceinkedtheNorthwoodDeclaration,explicitlystatingforthefirsttimethatthetwosideswouldcoordinatetheirrespectiveindependentnucleardeterrentforces.Furthermore,theyestablishedtheUK-FrenchNuclearSteeringGrouptoorchestratecollaborativeendeavorsincludingnucleardeterrenceoperations.①TheUnitedKingdomhasprocured12F-35Afighteraircrafttoreconstituteitsaerialnuclearstrikecapability,whileconcurrentlypropellingtheconstructionofDreadnought-classstrategicnuclearsubmarinesandallocating

①TheUKGovernment,“NorthwoodDeclaration,10July2025(UK-Francejointnuclearstatement),”July10,2025,

.uk/government/news/northwood-declaration-10-july-2025-

uk-france-joint-nuclear-statement.

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IncreasinglyTense

13

anadditionalGBP15billiontoitssovereignnuclearwarheadprogram.Francehaspersistedinmodernizingitssea-basednuclearcapabilities,expeditingtheresearchanddevelopmentofcutting-edgeair-launchedhypersoniccruisemissiles,andtherebybroadeningthescopeofitsair-basednuclearstrikes.Theriskofnuclearwarhasunprecedentedlyintensified.InJune,IsraelexecutedairstrikesagainstmultipletargetsofIran’snuclearprogram,whiletheUSmilitaryconcurrentlydeployedB-2bomberstostrikeIran’snuclearfacilitiesatFordow,Natanz,andIsfahan.AmidtheIndia-Pakistantensions,IndialaunchedattacksinproximitytoPakistan’snuclearinstallations.①

Theinternationalnuclearnon-proliferationregimeisnowgrapplingwithformidablechallenges.InJuly,theUSmilitarytransportedmultipleB61-12thermonucleargravitybombstotheRoyalAirForceLakenheathintheUnitedKingdom,markingtheUnitedStates’firstdeploymentoftacticalnuclearwarheadsonBritishsoilsince2008.②Polandisactivelypursuinga“nuclearumbrella”andeventhedevelopmentofitsown“nuclearweapons.”Then-PresidentDudaarticulatedthatPolandoughttoseekFrance’s“nuclearprotection”andendeavortohaveUSnuclearwarheads,currentlystationedinWesternEuropeoronAmericanterritory,relocatedtoPoland.PolishPrimeMinisterTuskandotherofficialsunderscoredtheimperativeforPolandtoacquirethemostmoderncapabilitiesrelatingtonuclearandotherunconventionalweaponry.TheDPRKacceleratedthedevelopmentofnucleardeliverysystems,conductingtestlaunchesofanovelhypersonicintermediate-andlong-rangeballisticmissile,andunveilingitsnewintercontinentalballisticmissile,the“Hwasong-20.”SouthKoreaandtheUnitedStateshaveengagedindiscussionstorevisetheROK-USAtomicEnergyAgreement,aimingtoloosenrestrictionsonSouthKorea’suraniumenrichmentandspentfuelreprocessingactivities.DuringhisstatevisittoSouthKoreainOctober,TrumpaccededtoSouthKorea’splantoconstructnuclear-poweredsubmarines.InSeptember,Japan’sMinistryofDefensehighlightedthat,indevelopingnext-generationpoweredsubmarines,nuclear-poweredsubmarines

①SaeedShah,AsifShahzad,ShivamPatelandGibranNaiyyarPeshimam,“HowIndiaandPakistanpulledbackfromthebrinkwithUS-brokeredceasefire,”theReuters,May14,2025,

https://

/world/asia-pacific/h