中国必选消费行业26年4月投资观点：到必选消费中寻找确定性

图4食饮子板块港股通持股市值占比月初月末对比18.0%16.0%14.0%12.0%10.0%

16.9%17.0%14.0%14.0%14.4%月初月末8.6%8.6%5.5%5.2%3.8%3.8%食品添加剂 酒精饮料 乳制品 包装食品 非酒精饮料，HTI，数据截至2026年3月31日图5A股一级行业市盈率（TTM）处于2011年以来目前绝对位置（从左至右行业为最新市盈率历史分位从高到低排序）MAX当前MIN66%75%66%75%69%73%67%25%60%55%55%37%29%15%25%75%78%64%62%%39%60%55%14%0%79%65%52%24%房煤银汽商国综机钢计建基石电建电环交公纺有轻传通医社农家美食非地炭行车贸防合械铁算筑础油力筑子保通用织色工媒信药会林用容品银产 零军 设 机材化石设装 运事服金制 生服牧电护饮售工 备 料工化备饰 输业饰属造 物务渔器理料融0，HTI，数据截至2026年3月31日图6A股食饮子行业市盈率（TTM）处于2011年以来目前绝对位置（从左至右行业为最新市盈率历史分位从高到低排序）MAX当前MIN80%38%80%38%21%55%25%2%24%11%19%55%33%9%100806040200熟 肉 预 保食 制 加 健品 工 品食品

烘 其 焙 他 食 酒 品 类

发酵品，HTI，数据截至2026年3月31日图7A股重点公司市盈率（TTM）处于2011年以来绝对位置（从左至右行业为最新市盈率历史分位从高到低排序）250

MAX当前5%90%5%90%7%11% 40%27%16%2%90%15%4%2%0%20015010032%500舍洋双伊贵泸五金山海重迎古青今得河汇利州州粮龙西天庆驾井岛世酒股发股茅老液鱼汾味啤贡贡啤缘业份展份台窖酒业酒酒酒酒，HTI，数据截至2026年3月31日图8A股食饮板块重点个股（市值前30）最新估值水平（TTM）8067703734373429262524242323232322222121202019191814141412121111750403020100B舍洋海水东百燕汤养珠安安重盐新伊贵老双涪青山五口迎泸古今古得河天井鹏润京臣元江井琪庆津乳利州白汇陵岛西粮子驾州井世井酒股味坊饮股啤倍饮啤食酵啤铺业股茅干发榨啤汾液窖贡老贡缘贡B业份业

料份酒健品酒品母酒子

份台酒展菜酒酒

酒窖酒，HTI，数据截至2026年3月31日。剔除估值为负的酒鬼酒图9H股一级行业市盈率（TTM）处于2011年以来目前绝对位置（从左至右行业为最新市盈率历史分位从高到低排序）0

MAXMIN

36%

50%98%50%98%98% 94%76%68%75%37%35%22%地产建筑业工业原材料业能源业综合企业医疗保健业非必需性消费金融业电讯业公用事业资讯科技业必需性消费，HTI，数据截至2026年3月31日图10H股必需消费行业子板块市盈率（TTM）处于2011年以来目前绝对位置（从左至右行业为最新市盈率历史分位从高到低排序）0

MAXMIN98%18%87%MIN98%18%87%6%54%19%超 市 及 便 利 店

乳 包 酒 非制 装 精 酒品 食 饮 精品 料 饮料，HTI，数据截至2026年3月31日图11H股重点公司市盈率（TTM）处于2011年以来绝对位置（从左至右行业为最新市盈率历史分位从高到低排序）MAX当前MIN8%50%8%50%34%31%22%17%8%13%6%6%2%8006000中 百颐农澳康蒙华青中统(200) 国 威海夫优师牛润岛国一飞 亚国山傅乳啤啤旺企(400) 鹤 太际泉控业酒酒旺业股股中份国，HTI2026331日201503-201608202503-TTM2025PE201203-201408）图12恒生食饮板块重点个股（市值前15）最新估值水平（TTM）60 5339303930252422191715 15 15 14131211403020100珍蒙农百酒牛夫威李乳山亚渡业泉太

统中康卫青中万一国师龙岛国洲企飞傅啤旺国业 鹤 控 酒 旺 际中 股 股国 份，HTI，数据截至2026年3月31日。中国必需消费APPENDIX1Demand:InMarch2026,eightessentialconsumergoodssectorsshowedmixedperformance,withfourrecordinggrowthandfourexperiencingdeclines.foods,condiments,foodservices,andsoftdrinkspostedpositivegrowth,whilemid-to-high-endandpremiumbaijiu,mass-marketandlower-tierbaijiu,dairyproducts,andbeersawnegativegrowth.Beershiftedfrommonth-over-monthgrowthtoadecline,whilethedeclinesinothersectorseitherstabilizedornarrowed;amongthesectorswithpositivegrowth,onlysoftdrinksmaintaineditsgrowthwithoutanynarrowing.believethisisprimarilyduetothefadingoftheSpringFestivalconsumptionboom,aweakeningrecoveryinthefoodserviceshort-termweaknessinthebeerretailmarket,anunevenrecoveryinbaijiu,demandfordairyproductsbottomingoutandstabilizing,andsoftdrinksmaintainingsteadygrowthastheyentertheirpeakseason.Prices:Onamonth-over-monthbasis,wholesalepricesforbaijiumostlydeclinedinMarch,withthepricebandsabove1,500yuanandbetween700and1,500yuanfallingacrosstheboard,whilesomeproductsinthepricebandbelow500yuansawincreases.Discountsincreasedacrosscondiments,softdrinks,conveniencefoods,andliquidmilk,withaveragediscountratesfallingby11.3percentagepoints,6.3percentagepoints,5.3percentagepoints,2.2percentagepoints,and1.6percentagepoints,respectively,comparedtotheendofFebruary;onlyinfantformulasawadecreaseof4.9percentagepoints.discountratesincreasedforsoftdrinks,condiments,liquidmilk,conveniencefoods,andwithaverageratesdecreasingby19.0percentagepoints,13.6percentagepoints,12.8percentagepoints,10.1percentagepoints,and0.2percentagepoints,respectively,comparedtothesameperiodlastyear.Onlyinfantformulasawadecreaseof3.9percentagepoints.Costs:InMarch,thespotcostindicesandfuturescostindicesforallsixcategoriesofconsumergoodsroseacrosstheboard.Thespotcostindicesforsoftdrinks,instantnoodles,condiments,dairyproducts,andfoodsincreasedby+13.85%,+10.45%,+9.69%,+2.92%,+2.52%,and+1.05%,respectively,whilethefuturescostindicesroseby+6.42%/+7.43%/+6.62%/+3.68%/+2.90%/+1.60%,respectively.pricechangesforaluminumcans,plastic,andglasswere+12.93%/+45.34%/+5.28%/-9.14%.Spotpricesforsoybeans,corn,palmoil,andwhitesugarchangedyear-over-yearby+9.4%/+5.1%/+1.0%/-13.4%.CapitalFlows:AsoftheendofMarch,netinflowsviatheStockConnectprogramtotaledapproximatelyHK$65billionforthemonth(comparedtoHK$80.32billioninnetinflowsthepreviousmonth).Theconsumerstaplessectorwasafocusforsouthboundcapital,withthesector’sshareofmarketcapitalizationincreasingmonth-over-month.ThemarketcapitalizationshareofdairyproductsviatheStockConnectcontinuedtorise,whilethefoodadditivessectormaintaineditssecond-placeposition,withbothseeingincreasedholdingscomparedtothepreviousmonth.RankedbyStockConnectholdingratio,BreweryremainedthetopStockConnectholdingintheconsumerstaplesfollowedcloselybyDairyandAndeliJuice,withleadingstocksmaintaininghighholdingratios.Valuation:AsoftheendofMarch,thehistoricalpercentilefortheA-sharefoodandbeveragesectorstoodat10%(20.0x),down7percentagepointsfromtheendofthepreviousmonth.Sub-sectorswithlowerpercentilesincludedbaijiu(5%,17.0x)andbeer(3%,19.5x).ThemedianvaluationofleadingA-sharefoodandbeveragecompanieswas21x(down1xfromthepreviousmonth).ThehistoricalpercentilefortheH-shareconsumerstaplessectorstoodat12%(16.5x),ranking12thoutof12primarysectors(unchanged).Sub-sectorswithlowerpercentilesincludeddairyproducts(4%,10.5x)andalcoholicbeverages(8%,16.0x).ThemedianvaluationofleadingH-sharefoodandbeveragecompanieswas18x(down1xfromthepreviousmonth).Suggestions:SeekcertaintyintheconsumerstaplesTherecentturbulentinternationalpoliticalenvironmenthasledtoseverevolatilityacrossmultiplecountriesandmarkets—includingequities,bonds,andcommodities—resultingina“fewwinners,manylosers”trendandasignificantdeclineininvestorriskappetite.Amidthisturmoil,weobservethatChinahas,relativelyspeaking,“remainedunscathed.”Basedonresearchfromourmacroteam,thecurrentvolatilityandcorrectioninA-andH-sharesrepresentacaseof“whenthecitycatchesfire,thefishinthemoatsuffer”—aspillovereffect.anticipateasubstantialofforeigncapitalallocationinthesecondhalfoftheDuringextraordinaryperiodssuchaswars,pandemics,andnaturaldisasters,theessentialconsumergoodssectorhastypicallymaintainedrelativelystrongearningsandstockprices.Additionally,essentialconsumergoodsremainapreferredlong-termallocationforforeigninvestors.Thecurrentcombinationoflowearningsexpectationsandlowvaluationsalsoprovidesahighmarginoffocus:First,productsbenefitingfromtheresumptionofin-restaurantdining,particularlybeer;second,industriesemergingfromthebottomofthecyclewithmedium-to-long-termupwardmomentum,startingwiththedairySpecificcompaniesinclude:CRMengniuYili,AnwellFoods,HaitianFlavour&Food,KweichowMoutai,andMasterKong.Risks:Slowrecoveryoftherealestatemarket,intensifiedforeigntradeconflicts,andRMBturningfromappreciationtodepreciation附录APPENDIX重要信息披露本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司(HTIRL)，HaitongSecuritiesIndiaPrivateLimited(HSIPL)，HaitongInternationalJapanK.K.(HTIJKK)和海通国际证券有限公司(HTISCL)的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团(HTISG)各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。IMPORTANTDISCLOSURESThisresearchreportisdistributedbyHaitongInternational,aglobalbrandnamefortheequityresearchteamsofHaitongInternationalResearchLimited(“HTIRL”),HaitongSecuritiesIndiaPrivateLimited(“HSIPL”),HaitongInternationalJapanK.K.(“HTIJKK”),HaitongInternationalSecuritiesCompanyLimited(“HTISCL”),andanyothermemberswithintheHaitongInternationalSecuritiesGroupofCompanies(“HTISG”),eachauthorizedtoengageinsecuritiesactivitiesinitsrespectivejurisdiction.HTIRL分析师认证AnalystCertification:我，闻宏伟，在此保证（i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。我和我的家属（我已经告知他们）将不会在本研究30个自然日内交易此研究报告所讨论目标公司的证券。I,HongweiWen,certifythati)theviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportaccuratelyreflectmypersonalviewsaboutanyorallofthesubjectcompaniesorissuersreferredtointhisresearchandiinopartofmycompensationwas,isorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportandthatIincludingmembersofmyhouseholdhavenofinancialinterestinthesecurityorsecuritiesofthesubjectcompaniesdiscussedIandmyhousehold,whomIhavealreadynotifiedofthis,willnotdealinortradeanysecuritiesinrespectoftheissuerthatIreviewwithin30calendardaysaftertheresearchreportispublished.我，吴岱禹，在此保证（i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。我和我的家属（我已经告知他们）将不会在本研究30个自然日内交易此研究报告所讨论目标公司的证券。I,JasmineWucertifythatitheviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportaccuratelyreflectmypersonalviewsaboutanyorallofthesubjectcompaniesorissuersreferredtointhisresearchandiinopartofmycompensationwas,isorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisresearchreport;andthatI(includingmembersofmyhousehold)havenofinancialinterestinthesecurityorsecuritiesofthesubjectcompaniesdiscussed.Iandmyhousehold,whomIhavealreadynotifiedofthis,willnotdealinortradeanysecuritiesinrespectoftheissuerthatIreviewwithin30calendardaysaftertheresearchreportispublished.利益冲突披露ConflictofInterestDisclosures海通国际及其某些关联公司可从事投资银行业务和/或对本研究中的特定股票或公司进行做市或持有自营头寸。就本研究报告而言，以下是有关该等关系的披露事项（以下披露不能保证及时无遗漏，如需了解及时全面信息，请发邮件至ERD-Disclosure@）HTIandsomeofitsaffiliatesmayengageininvestmentbankingand/orserveasamarketmakerorholdproprietarytradingpositionsofcertainstocksorcompaniesinthisresearchreport.Asfarasthisresearchreportisconcerned,thefollowingarethedisclosuremattersrelatedtosuchrelationship(Asthefollowingdisclosuredoesnotensuretimelinessandcompleteness,pleasesendanemailtoERD-Disclosure@iftimelyandcomprehensiveinformationisneeded).国泰海通证券股份有限公司和/或其子公司（统称“国泰海通”）122319.HK,300999.CHand000895.CH的投资银行项目。投资银行项目包括：1、国泰海通担任上市前辅导机构、保荐人或主承销商的首次公开发行项目；2、国泰海通作为保荐人、主承销商或财务顾问的股权或债务再融资项目；3、国泰海通作为主经纪商的新三板上市、目标配售和并购项目。GuotaiHaitongSecuritiesCo.,Ltd.and/oritssubsidiaries(collectively,the"GuotaiHaitong")havearoleininvestmentbankingprojectsof2319.HK,300999.CHand000895.CHwithinthepast12months.Theinvestmentbankingprojectsinclude1.IPOprojectsinwhichGuotaiHaitongactedaspre-listingtutor,sponsor,orlead-underwriter;2.equityordebtrefinancingprojectsof2319.HK,300999.CHand000895.CHforwhichGuotaiHaitongactedassponsor,lead-underwriterorfinancialadvisor;3.listingbyintroductioninthenewthreeboard,targetplacement,M&AprojectsinwhichGuo