2026转型中的煤炭产业链：山西与陕西的挑战与应对策略报告

Energy博众智合博众智合能源转型–转型中的煤炭产业链：山西与陕西的挑战与应对策略2中国煤炭学会kevin.tu@zhou.yang@博众智合能源转型–转型中的煤炭产业链：山西与陕西的挑战与应对策略3志着中国气候政策框架正逐步从以强度控制为主，向兼顾与此同时，中国产煤大省的煤炭产量和煤电装机规模仍在持续增长。2025年，山西省和陕西省的原煤产量同比分控”制度从能耗转向碳排放的背景下，这些省份正面临艰巨的转型挑战—如何在推进经济结构调整和满足国家能近期中东地区地缘政治冲突引发国际油气市场剧烈震荡，进一步加剧了包括中国在内的全球能源安全焦虑。在此背景下，煤炭及其相关产业在能源保供中的战略价值更加凸观上增加了煤炭主产区产业结构转型和如期实现碳达峰目本研究通过对山西和陕西煤炭产业链的量化分析，构建了链相关二氧化碳排放。研究旨在为理解煤炭资源型地区在低碳转型背景下面临的结构性挑战提供数据支撑与分析框架，为地方决策者及利益相关方在制定差异化减排政策、产业升级路径与技术转型策略领域提供思路和参考。1在煤炭退出问题上，中央政府应传递连贯的政策信号，主要产煤省份应积极主动进行政策规划，以如期完成双碳目标。国家层面需尽早明确全国煤炭和煤电产能的峰值水平及达峰时间表，严格限制新增传统煤矿2绘制两省煤炭产业链碳排放图谱，为确定重点减排领域与政策优先顺序提供科学依据。山西和陕西的煤炭节排放的97%及全产业链排放的40%。要在20303煤炭生产大省的减排也取决于全国煤炭消费需求的整体下降。山西和陕西共同构成了全球最大的煤炭产区，年总产量约为20.49亿吨—相当于印度、印度尼西亚和欧盟的产量之和。晋、陕有超过50%的煤炭和30%的电力外调出省，这意味着两省的转型仅靠自身很难完成，需要国家层面推动整体能源系统的结构性4的机遇窗口。这标志着对重大能源项目的审批和管理机制从过程导向向结果导向转变，有助于增强各省推动低碳转型的内生动力。科学设计并有效落实新机制，将促进煤炭产区的发展战略与国家气候目标实现深AgoraEnergyChinaandAgoraEnergiewende–TransitioningcoalregionsinChina:evidencefromcoalindustrychainsinShanxiandShaanxi4Dearreader,Recentglobalenergymarketvolatility,includingrisingglobaloilandgaspricesduetothewarintheInNovember2025,ChinasubmitteditsupdatedNDC,MiddleEast,furtherunderscoretheimportanceandcommittingtocuteconomy-wideemissionsbysevenurgencyofacceleratingstructuraltransformationtotenpercentbelowpeaklevelsby2035–itsfirstexplicittotalemissionscap,signalingashiftfromratherthanreinforcingensity-basedtoabsolutereductions.ThisstudyprovidesaquantitativeanalysisofShanxiandShaanxi’scoalindustrychains,providingaAtthesametime,coaloutputandpowercapacityframeworktounderstandstructuralchallengesandinkeyprovincescontinuetogrow.In2025,coalidentifyactionablepathwaysfordecarbonisation,productioninShanxiandShaanxigrewby2.1per-industrialupgradingandeconomicdiversification.centand2.9percent,reflectingongoingeconomicByhighlightingsector-specificstrategiesandpolicyandenergysecurityconsiderations.AsChinanearslevers,itaimstosupportatimelyandorderlytransi-its2030carbonpeakinggoalandreformsits“dualtiontowardsChina’sclimate,energyandsocioeco-control”systemfromenergytocarbon,theseprov-incesfacethechallengeofreducingemissions,whilenomicgoals.supportingeconomicrestructuringandaligningwithnationalenergytransitionpriorities.Wehopeyoufinditinsightful.ManagingDirector,AgoraEnergyChina1newcoalpowerplantapprovalsandsettingacleartimetableforphasingdownexistingassetswillbekeytorepositioningtheseprovincesascleanenergyandmanufacturingbases.Acoherentpolicyframeworkcanenablecoordinatedeconomicandenergytransitionsattheprovinciallevel.2provincialemissions;togetherexceeding1billiontonnes–nearlytwicetheemissionsofGermany.Themainsourcesarecoal-firedpower,coking,andsteelproductioninShanxi,andcoalpowerandcoal-chemicalindustriesinShaanxi.Achievingtheir2030peakingtargetsthereforerequiresclear,sector-specificdecarbonisationroadmapsforthesekeyindustries.3Shaanxitogetherformtheworld’slargestcoal-producingregion,withacombinedannualoutputofabout2049milliontonnes–roughlyequivalenttothetotalproductionofIndia,Indonesia,andtheEuropeanUnioncombined.Aroundhalfofthiscoalisconsumedoutsidethetwoprovinces,mean-ingtheirtransitioncannotbeachievedlocallyalone.Itrequiresnationaleffortstoreducecoaluseandcoordinatedactionbetweencentralandregionalgovernments.4upgrading.ThischangealignswithChina’supdatedNDC,whichintroducesabsolute–ratherthanin-tensity-based–targets,markingadecisiveshifttoanewpolicyparadigm.Leveragingthenewdualcontrolcanbetteralignlocalenergyandemissionsmanagementwithnationalclimategoals.博众智合能源转型–转型中的煤炭产业链：山西与陕西的挑战与应对策略52736364242424344483.2能源系统流动分析3.2.2能源加工与转换博众智合能源转型–转型中的煤炭产业链：山西与陕西的挑战与应对策略6545454586262626368686969博众智合能源转型–转型中的煤炭产业链：山西与陕西的挑战与应对策略7Shareofcoalconsumptionandgrowthofcoalproduction,2001-202410CoalflowdiagramofShanxiprovince,202211CoalflowdiagramofShaanxiprovince,202212CO2emissionsbysegmentofthecoalindustrycCO₂emissionsbysegmentofthecoalindustrychaininShaanxiprovince,202314图2-62000-2024年山西煤炭产量变化趋势及占全国比重图2-92015-2024年山西省分类型发电装机图3-42022年陕西省终端消费环节分能源品种消费量构成博众智合能源转型–转型中的煤炭产业链：山西与陕西的挑战与应对策略8AgoraEnergyChinaandAgoraEnergiewende–TransitioningcoalregionsinChina:evidencefromcoalindustrychainsinShanxiandShaanxi9ExecutiveSummaryChina’senergytransitionisacceleratingrapidly,withrenewablesdeploymentbreakingrecordsinrecentyears.Atthesametime,progressisincreasinglyshapedbyastructuraltensionbetweenthegovern-ment’sshort-termenergysecurityprioritiesandlong-termclimatecommitments.ThistensionismostvisibleinChina’smajorcoal-producingprovinces,particularlyShanxiandShaanxi,wherenationalenergysupplysecurityobjectivesanddecarbonisa-tiongoalsintersectmostdirectly,andwherepolicychoicesoverthenextfiveyearswillhavelong-termimplicationsforbotheconomicdevelopmentandemissiontrajectories.ThisreporthighlightshowChina’sevolvingpol-icyframeworkcreatesatimelyopportunitytoguidetheseshort-term"energysecurity"pressuresawayfromcarbonlock-in,ratherthantowardsnewinvestmentsincoalcapacity.Inparticular,itexaminestherecentnationalpolicyshiftfromanenergy“dualcontrol”system(controllingtotalenergyconsumptionandenergyintensity)toacarbon“dualcontrol”managementandevaluationsystem(con-trollingtotalcarbonemissionsandcarbonintensity).Thereportanalyseshowthisshiftcouldunlockstrongerincentivesforemissionreductionsandacceleratestructuraltransformationincarbon-in-tensiveindustriesforShanxiandShaanxi.LookingaheadtoChina’s2035NDCaswellastheadventofthe15thFive-YearPlan(FYP,2026-2030),thisreportoutlinespathwaysforhowthecentralandprovincialgovernmentscanstrategicallyrepositioncoalregionsfromfossilenergybasestoinnovativemanufacturinghubs.Itfurtherdemonstrateshoweconomicrestructuringatthesubnationalleveltowardshigher-endmanufacturing,cleanenergysupplyandamoreresilientlabourforcecantrans-formthelow-carbontransitionintoasourceofsus-tainablegrowthandlong-termcompetitiveness.ShanxiandShaanxiundershiftingnationalprioritiesSincethe11thFYP(2006-2010),Chinahasacceler-atedeffortstoconcentratecoalproductioninitscen-tralandwesternregionsaspartofabroaderstrategytostrengthensupplycoordinationandimprovesystemefficiency.By2024,Shanxi,Shaanxi,InnerMongoliaandXinjiangwereproducing3.9billiontonnesofrawcoalperyear–81.6percentofnationaloutput–up14.8percentagepointsfromadecadeearlier(ChinaNationalCoalAssociation,2024).Thisconcentrationcontinuedevenduringperiodsofnationalproductiondeclinein2015-2016,under-scoringthestructuralimportanceplacedontheseregionsforChina’senergysystem.Centralpolicyhaslongsoughttobalanceenergysecurity,greendevelopmentandeconomicefficiency,withdifferentprioritiesemphasisedacrossplan-ningperiods.Duringthe13thFYP(2016-2020),forexample,airpollutioncontrolfeaturedprominently,leadingtocoalconsumptioncapsinkeyprovincesandthelargestdeclineincoal’sshareoftheenergymixobservedinanyplanningperiod(Figure0-1).After2020,thelandscapebegantoshiftagain.Geopoliticaltensions,tradefrictions,theglobalfossilenergycrisisandmarketvolatilityincreasinglyinfluencedChina’sdomesticenergypolicydebates–aswellascoalpricedynamics.Inresponse,theChi-nesegovernmentplacedgreateremphasisonensur-ingsupplyadequacyandsystemreliability.Withinthispolicyframing,coalwaspositionedasa“stabilis-ing”componentoftheenergysystem,accompaniedbyrenewedpolicysupportforincreasingproduction.Tosupportthisobjective,measureswereintroducedtoacceleratethereleaseofadvancedcoalproduc-tioncapacityandtheapprovalofmatureprojects,triggeringanewwaveoflarge-scalecapacityAgoraEnergyChinaandAgoraEnergiewende–TransitioningcoalregionsinChina:evidencefromcoalindustrychainsinShanxiandShaanxiShareofcoalconsumptionandgrowthofcoalproduction,2001-2024→Fig.0-1ChangeChangeofpercentagepointsofcoal'sshareinenergyconsumptionAverageannualgrowthrateofcoalproduction-6.950(2006-2010)NationalBureauofStatisticsexpansion.Thepolicyorientationtowardscoalpoweralsounderwentamajoradjustment–from“strictcontrol”underthe13thFYPto“rationaldevelop-ment”underthe14thFYP.Theprincipleof“estab-lishbeforedismantling”,formallyarticulatedin2022,reflectsasequencingapproachtotheenergytransition,wherebynew,reliableandcleanenergycapacitymustbefullybuiltandoperationalbeforeanyexistingfossilfuelcapacity–especiallycoal–isphasedout.Asof2024,theaveragegrowthrateofcoalproductionunderthe14thFYPhadreacheditshighestlevelinadecade,almostthreetimesthelevelrecordedduringthe12thFYP.Underthisnationalpolicyorientation–centredonincreasingproductionandensuringsupply–ShanxiandShaanxitookonanincreasinglyprominentroleinChina’scoalsupplysystem.Theirsharesofrawcoalandcokeproductionreachedten-yearhighsin2020and2021andhavelargelyremainedattheseelevatedlevelssince.In2024,ShanxiandShaanxiaccountedfor27percentand16percentofChina’stotalrawcoalproduction,respectively,whiletheirsharesofnationalcokeoutputstoodat19percentand9percent.Morethanhalfoftheircoaloutputwasexportedtootherprovinces,andover30percentoftheirelectricitywastransmittedelsewherewithinChina(Figure0-2,Figure0-3).Theseinterprovincialflowshighlighttheextenttowhichprovincialenergysystemsareembeddedwithin,andshapedby,nationalsupplysecurityobjectives.WhilenationalpolicieshavereinforcedShanxi’sandShaanxi’srolesasso-calledpillarsofenergysecu-rityintheshorttomediumterm,theireconomicstructuresandemissionprofileshavealsobecomeincreasinglylockedintocarbon-intensivepathways.AsChinaadvancestowardsitscarbonpeakingandneutralitycommitments,thisdualrole–energystabilisertodayanddecarbonisationfront-run-nertomorrow–addssignificantcomplexitytothetransition.Provincialgovernmentsfaceadifficultbalancingtask:theyareexpectedtoguaranteecoalsupplyfornationalenergysecurity,whileavoidinglong-termrelianceonhigh-carbonindustries.Solv-ingthisdilemmarequiresnotonlytechnologicalandindustrialupgradingattheprovinciallevel,butalsoclearandcrediblepolicysignalsfromthecentralgov-ernmenttoalignenergysecurityimperativeswithlong-termclimategoals.Intheabovecontext,thedirectiontakenbythesetwoprovinceswillsignificantlyshapeChina’sabilitytoreconcilesupplysecuritywithacrediblepost-2030emissiondecline.AgoraEnergyChinaandAgoraEnergiewende–TransitioningcoalregionsinChina:evidencefromcoalindustrychainsinShanxiandShaanxiCoalflowdiagramofShanxiprovince,2022[tonnesofstandardcoalequivalent] Refiningandcoal-to-oil—HeatingHeatIncreaseinventoryIndustryTransportationtootherprovinces1.Coalinputsincludelocalcoalproductionof848.69milliontonnesofstandardcoalequivalence,with79.22milliontonnesofstandardcoalequivalencetransferredin,andareductionininventoryof2.09milliontonnesofstandardcoalequivalence.Theinputsalsoinclude16.77milliontonnesofstandardcoalequivalenceintheformofcleanedcoaltransferredin.2.Thisfigureonlyconsidersrawcoalusedforlocalconsumptionanddoesnotinclude131.19milliontonnesofstandardcoalequivalencetransferredoutand0.21milliontonnesofstandardcoalequivalenceexported.NationalBureauofStatisticsChina’sevolving“dualcontrol”framework:fromenergytocarbonSince2020,Chinahasacceleratedreformstoitsgov-ernanceframeworkforenergy-andemission-inten-siveprojects.Duringthe12thFYP(2011-2015),Chinaimplementedtheaforementioned“dualcontrol”pol-icyontotalenergyconsumptionandenergyintensity(energyconsumptionperGDPorenergyconsump-tionperunitofproduct)tomanageitsenergysystem.Thisapproachfocusedonhowmuchenergywasusedandhowefficientlyitsupportedeconomicgrowth.Provincesandindustriesweregiventargetstolimitoverallenergyuseandimproveefficiency,whichhelpedmoderateenergydemandgrowthbutdidnotdirectlyreflectclimateimpact.However,energycon-trolsdidnotdifferentiatebetweenhigh-carbonandlow-carbonenergysources:consumingrenewableelectricityandburningcoalweretreatedsimilarlyinaccountingterms.In2021,Beijingproposedastrategicshift–fromcontrollingenergyconsumptiontomanagingcar-bonemissions–byintroducingtheconceptofacarbonemissions“dualcontrol”system.Thisshiftrepresentedamovefrominput-basedmanagementtooutcome-basedclimategovernance.Byprioritis-ingemissionsratherthanenergyconsumption,theAgoraEnergyChinaandAgoraEnergiewende–TransitioningcoalregionsinChina:evidencefromcoalindustrychainsinShanxiandShaanxiCoalflowdiagramofShaanxiprovince,2022HeatingImportsPrimaryenergyinput[tonnesofstandardcoalequivalent]NaturalgasHeatResidentialDirectuseIndustryTransportationtootherprovinces1.Coalinputsincludelocalcoalproductionof534.84milliontonnesofstandardcoalequivalence,with29.67milliontonnesofstandardcoalequivalencetransferredin,andareductionininventoryof0.40milliontonnesofstandardcoalequivalence.Theinputsalsoinclude7.91milliontonnesofstandardcoalequivalenceintheformofcleanedcoaltransferredin,0.71milliontonnesofstandardcoalequivalenceintheformofotherwashedcoaltransferredin,and0.45milliontonnesofstandardcoalequivalenceintheformofcoalganguetransferredin.2.Thisfigureonlyconsidersrawcoalusedforlocalconsumptionanddoesnotinclude377.02milliontonnesofstandardcoalequivalenceofrawcoaltransferredout,17.33milliontonnesofstandardcoalequivalenceofcleanedcoaltransferredout,and11.18milliontonnesofstandardcoalequivalenceofotherwashedcoaltransferredout.NationalBureauofStatisticsemergingframeworkbetteralignedclimateobjec-tiveswitheconomicdevelopment,strengtheningincentivesforcleanenergydeploymentandelectri-fication,andprovidinggreaterflexibilityforregionstopursuegrowthpathwaysthatarebothlow-carbonandeconomicallyviable.In2024,theStateCouncilofChinasetoutaroadmapforanationwidecarboncontrolframework.Theroadmapproposedtwophasesforimplementation:duringthe15thFYP(2026-2030),thegovernmentwillprioritisecarbonintensitycontrol,supportedbytotalemissioncaps,whilestrengtheningcarbonaccounting,evaluationandproductcarbonfootprintsystemstosupportcarbonpeaking.Afterpeaking(by2030),totalemissioncontrolwillbecomethedominantmechanismtodriveasustainedemissiondecline.TheallocationoftheseclimatetargetsissimilartotheEuropeanUnion’sEffortSharingRegulation.Nationalcarbonemissionsandintensitytargetswillbeallo-catedtoprovinces,thentocitiesandkeyenterprisesbasedonaseriesofmethodologiesthatarestillunderAgoraEnergyChinaandAgoraEnergiewende–TransitioningcoalregionsinChina:evidencefromcoalindustrychainsinShanxiandShaanxidevelopment,butindicatorssuchasregionalstrategicposition,economicdevelopmentstatusandhistori-calemissionsaregenerallyagreedtobeconsidered.Thispolicystructureisprocessingatasteadypace.Withinthe15thFYP,aprovincialcarbonbudgetmanagementsystemandtargetevaluationassess-mentsystemareexpectedtobeestablished.Thisleavesopenavaluablepolicywindowforprovincialgovernmentstoreshapetheirenergyandeconomicstructure.AsChinaentersthe15thFYP,nationalcoalconsump-tionisexpectedtopeakandgraduallystabilise,sig-nalingastructuralturningpointforcoal-dependentregionssuchasShanxiandShaanxi.Thistransitionprovidesakeyopportunitytoalignenergysecuritywithlong-termclimateobjectives–avoidingnewinvestmentsincoalcapacity,whilecreatingspacefornewdevelopmentpathways.Againstthisbackdrop,thereporthighlightsthesignificanceofthenationalpolicyshiftfromenergydualcontroltocarbondualcontrol.Itillustrateshowthisshiftcanprovideclearersignalsformanagingcoalcapacity,facilitatetheorderlyphase-downofcoalprojectsandhelppreventpotentialcarbonleakagefromenergy-ex-portingprovinces.Bystrengtheningcarbon-basedgovernance,thenewframeworkcanremovestruc-turalconstraintsonindustrialupgradingandsupportamorecoordinatedtransformationofcoal-relianteconomies.Morethanever,provincessuchasShanxiandShaanxineedaclearunderstandingoftheiremissionbaselines,sectoralcompositionandsupplychaindynamicstodesigneffectivereductionstrategies.Thisreporttracesenergyflowsandquantifieswhereemissionsoccuralongthecoalindustrychaintoidentifythesectorswheretransitionpolicywillhavethehighestleverage.Italsoprovidesessentialdataandmethodologicalguidanceforpolicydesign.Thestudyaimstosupportprovincesintranslatingnationaltargetsintospecificregions,industriesandkeyenterprises,enhancingthefeasibility,transpar-encyandmeasurabilityofpolicyimplementation.ThecoalindustrychainandcarbonemissionsinShanxiandShaanxiAnalysisconductedbyAgoraEnergyChinaestimatesfossilenergy–relatedcarbondioxide(CO₂)emissionsinShanxi,1withafocusonCO₂emissionsalongthecoalindustrychainin2022.EmissionsfromShanxi’scoalindustrychaincoverCO₂emissionsfromfossilfueluseduringcoalproduction,transportation,processingandconversion,andfinalconsumption(Figure0-2).In2022,Shanxi’senergyconsumption–relatedCO₂emissionstotaled619milliontonnes.Emissionsfromthecombustionofcoal,naturalgasandoilaccountedfor94percentofthetotal,while6percentcamefromindustrialprocessemissions.Coalcombustionalonecontributed88percentoftheprovince’stotalCO₂emissions.Inaddition,CO₂emissionsassociatedwithelectricityexportedfromShanxitootherprov-incesrepresented17percentoftheprovince’stotalemissions.Emissionsfromfossilenergyconsumptionalongthecoalindustrychainreached575milliontonnes,accountingfor93percentofShanxi’stotalCO₂emissions.Nearlyalltheseemissions(97.8percent)occurredduringthecoalconversionandfinalcon-sumptionstages(Figure0-4).Thethreelargestemit-tingsectorswerepowerandheatgeneration(about60.1percentoftotalcoal-chainemissions),ironandsteelproduction(20percent)andcoking(8.3percent).CO₂emissionsfromthepowerandheat,ironandsteel,andcokingsectorsmainlyresultfromcoalcombustion.Incontrast,52.7percentofCO₂emis-sionsinthebuildingmaterialssector2comefromindustrialprocesses.Emissionsinthechemicalsindustryandtheresidentialsectorareprimarilydrivenbyelectricityuse,accountingfor67.1per-centand76.6percentoftheirrespectivesectoralemissions.1Fossilfuelcombustionandprocessemissionsofindustries,includingcement,limeandcrudesteelmanufacturing.2Cement,glass,ceramicsandlimeAgoraEnergyChinaandAgoraEnergiewende–TransitioningcoalregionsinChina:evidencefromcoalindustrychainsinShanxiandShaanxiinShanxiprovince,20220.6%20%97.8%Authors'calculationbasedonShanxiStatisticalYearbookinShaanxiprovince,2023transportationconversion79.8%26.9%40.2%Authors'calculationbasedonShaanxiStatisticalAgoraEnergyChinaandAgoraEnergiewende–TransitioningcoalregionsinChina:evidencefromcoalindustrychainsinShanxiandShaanxiInShaanxi,CO₂emissionsfromfossilfuelcombus-tion(excludingprocessemissions)reached430mil-liontonnesin2023,around10percentofwhichcamefromelectricityexportedtootherprovinces.Coalcombustionaloneaccountedfor78.2percentoftotalCO₂emissions,whileoilandnaturalgascontributed13.6percentand8.2percent,respectively.AlongthecoalindustrychaininShaanxi,thecom-bustionofcoal,oil,andnaturalgasgenerated352milliontonnesofCO₂equivalent,accountingfor91percentoftheprovince’stotalemissions.SimilartoShanxi,around97.5percentofemissionsalongthecoalindustrychainoccurredduringthecoalprocessing,conversionandfinalconsumptionstages(Figure0-5).However,sectoralcompositionsdiffer.Powerandheatgenerationaccountedforasmallershare(46.3percent),whilecokingcontributedalargershare,atnearly27percentoftotalcoalchainemissions.Nota-bly,around6.5percentofemissionscamefromcoal-to-oilandcoal-to-gasprocesses,thelatterofwhichisreferredtoinChinaasbeingpartoftheso-called“moderncoalchemicalindustry”,makingthissectorakeypriorityforcarbonreductioninShaanxi.PolicyrecommendationsThereport’scalculationsshowthatShanxiandShaanxifacecommonstructuralchallengesintheircoalindustrychainswhenitcomestocarbonreduction.AsChina’senergybasesandindustrypillars,bothprovincesareinurgentneedofacoor-dinatedandconsistentnational-leveldirectiontotransitionawayfromcoalindustries.Thisshouldbesupportedbydifferentiated,locallyanchoredsector-specificmeasures.Bothprovincesexhibitsignificantupstream-downstreamimbalances.Whiledownstreamsectors(coke,steel,cement,chemicals)faceshrinkingdemandandstricterenergyaswellasupcomingcarboncontrolconstraints,upstreammin-ingremainsprofitableduetoenergysecuritypoli-cies,temptinglocalgovernmentstorelyonexpandedcoaloutputforGDPgrowthandfiscalrevenue.However,thisapproachcarriesgrowingrisks:continueddownstreamweaknessmayleadtoinventorybuildup,financialstressandcascadingdebtrisksacrosssupplychains.Suchhigh-carbondependencemaydelaycleanenergydeploymentandincreasesystemiceconomicrisks.Overthepastfiveyears,coalproductionandconsumptioninthetwocoal-producingprovinceshaveonceagainreachedrecordhighs.Lookingahead,theenergyandclimatepoliciesofShanxiandShaanxioverthenextfiveyearswillbedecisiveinmitigatingcarbonlock-inrisksandmanagingtransitioncosts.WiththeexpansionofChina’scarbonmarketcov-erageandtheestablishmentofthecarbondualcontrolmechanism,China’sclimategovernanceisincreasinglycharacterisedbymarket-basedmech-anismscombinedwithregulatoryconstraintson2emissions.Thisframeworkallowscleanenergyconsumptiontocontinuegrowingwhilelimitingtheexpansionoffossilfueluse.ShanxiandShaanxiarewellpositionedtoleveragethisevolvingpolicyenvi-ronmenttoacceleratethelow-carbonandstrategictransformationoftheircoalindustries.Withaviewtothenational15thFYPbeginningin2026aswellastheregional15thFYPscheduleforformaladoptioninlate2026orearly2027,severalpolicyrecommenda-tionscanhelpsupportstrongeralignment:→Atthenationallevel:•SetaquantifiednationalcarbonemissionscapbasedonChina’supdatedNationallyDeterminedContribution,andallocateitacrossprovincesandkeysectors.•Setclearpeakinglevelsandtimelinesfornationalcoalproductionandcoalpowercapac-itytoguidelong-termplanningandinvestmentdecisions.•Strictlycapnewconventionalcoalminingandpowerprojectstoreducestrandedassetrisksandminimisepost-2030transitioncosts.→Attheprovinciallevel:•Translatecarbonpeakingandneutralitygoalsintomeasurablecoalconsumptionandcarbonemissionindicatorstoensureaccountabilityandpolicycoherence.AgoraEnergyChinaandAgoraEnergiewende–TransitioningcoalregionsinChina:evidencefromcoalindustrychainsinShanxiandShaanxi•Developindustry-specificroadmapswithphasedtargetsaccompaniedbyquantitativeimpactassessmentsonjusttransitiondimen-sionssuchasemployment,workforceskillsandsocialprotection.•Allocatenationalcarbondualcontrolindicatorsacrosscitiesandsectorsusingascientificanddifferentiatedapproach,settingtailoredreduc-tiontargetstoavoidauniform“one-size-fits-all”implementationmodel.•Establishcarbonbudgetmanagementsystems,conductingannualemissiontrendanalysesandintegratingenergyandcarbonassessmentsintoinvestmentprojectapprovalstoensurealign-mentwithnationalclimateobjectives.Long-termdevelopmentrecommendationsMaintainingstrategicconsistencyisvitalamidglobalgeopoliticalvolatility.Whilerecenteventshavepromptedsomenationstotemporarilyincreaserelianceonfossilfuels,thesedevelopmentshaveonlymarginallyaffectedbroaderstructuraltrendsaroundcoal,whichisplateauinginAsiaandphasing-downforeconomicreasonsinotherregions.Short-termfluctuationsshouldnotbemistakenforareversalofthebroadercleantransitiontrend–neitherinChinanorglobally.Reducingdependenceonsingleexternalenergysources,expandingrenewables,modernis-ingpowersystemsandimprovingenergyefficiencyremainessentialcomponentsofChina’slong-termenergysecuritystrategy.Atthesametime,interna-tionalcooperation–aroundcriticalmineralsvaluechains,cleantechnologiesandgreenfinance–arecriticaltoachievingglobalclimategoals.As