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Morganstanley
RESEARCHFouNDATloN
May17,202609:00PMGMT
InvestorPresentation|AsiaPacific
ChinaEquityStrategy:ForgingNewHorizons
MoRGANSTANLEyAsiALimiTEd+
LauraWang
EquityStrategist
Laura.Wang@
+8522848-6853
ChloeLiu
EquityStrategist
Chloe.Liu1@
VickyWu
EquityStrategist
+8522848-5497
Vicky.Wu@
+8523963-3928
MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswith
companiescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanley
Research.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanley
Researchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.
Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.
+=Analystsemployedbynon-U.S.affiliatesarenotregisteredwithFINRA,maynotbeassociatedpersonsofthememberandmaynotbesubjecttoFINRArestrictionson
communicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.
2
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
FouNDATloN
MSCIChinahasunderperformedEmergingMarketYTDmainlyduetoAImemorysuper-cycle;WestayEqual-weightonChina
OWEWOWEWOWEWOWEWOWEWUWEW
MSCIChinaRelativetoEM
(indextotalreturninUSD)
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
Dec-12
Jun-13
Dec-13
Jun-14
Dec-14
Jun-15
Dec-15
Jun-16
Dec-16
Jun-17
Dec-17
Jun-18
Dec-18
Jun-19
Dec-19
Jun-20
Dec-20
Jun-21
Dec-21
Jun-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Dec-23
Jun-24
Dec-24
Jun-25
Dec-25
Jun-26
Source:MSCI,FactSet,DataStream,MorganStanleyResearch.DataasofMay12,2026.Pastperformanceisnoguaranteeoffutureresults.
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
FouNDATloN
MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH3
IndexperformanceandSharpeRatio(MSCIChina,CSI300,MSCIEM,S&P500)–CSI300demonstratingsuperiorrisk-adjustedreturnsin2025and2026YTD
TotalreturninUSD20252026YTD
Standard
deviation(Annualized)
21%
Standard
Sharperatio(Annualized)
-0.56
Sharperatio(Annualized)
0.95
Annualizedreturn
-7%
24Sep2024-
2025
2026YTD
-3%
Now
39%27%
deviation(Annualized)
MSCIChina
1.001.70
0.66
0.12
2.73
1.42
24%
CSI300
57%
23%
8%
15%
1.44
24%
15%
1.49
44%
54%
29%
28%
31%
16%
2%
22%
8%
7%20%
72%25%
24%14%
23%
15%
18%
HangSeng
MSCIEM
S&P500
Source:Datastream,Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearch.
Note:DataasofMay8,2026.Pastperformanceisnoguaranteeoffutureresults.Resultsdonotincludetransactioncosts/fees.10-yearChinesegovernmentbondyieldisusedinCSI300relatedcalculations,comparedtoUStreasury10-yearyieldforothercases.
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
FouNDATloN
4
Underneaththelacklusterperformance–Amorethematicgrowthfocusedandbetterperformingmarketmaskedbytheindexcomposition
Indexweight
ProformaindexweightYTDreturn%(RHS)
27.5
17.5
7.5
(2.5)
(12.5)
(22.5)
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
-10.0-20.0
-30.0
Semis
RealEstate
Energy
CapitalGoods
Materials
HealthCare
TechHardware
Financials
Utilities
ConsumerStaples
ConsumerDisc
Software&Services
CommServices
Source:FactSet,MorganStanleyResearch.DataasofMay8,2026.
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
FouNDATloN
MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH5
Chinahasimplementedasystemicframeworkonindustrialupgradeandinnovation
Source:Governmentwebsite,MorganStanleyResearch.
6
EvolutionofrecentFive-YearPlans–Aclearfocusonqualitygrowthandtechinnovation
Growth:FromQuantitytoQuality
RealGDP
CAGR:7%
CAGR:>6.5%
SpecificTargetDropped
CoreDriver:TechnologyInnovation
R&D
SpendingCAGR:12%CAGR:10.3%CAGR:>7.0%CAGR:>7.0%
Sustainability:GreenTransition
CO2
Emissions/GDP
CumulativeDecline:
17%
CumulativeDecline:
18%
CumulativeDecline:
18%
CumulativeDecline:
17%
2016-2020
2021-2025
2026-2030
2011-2015
Source:NPC,MorganStanleyResearch.
MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH7
Exportscontinuetoanchorcyclicalgrowth,positioningChina’selectronicsandrenewablesupplychainsasdirectbeneficiaries
China’sdeepelectronicsandrenewablesupply
chainswillbedirectbeneficiary
Twostructuraldriversforexportgrowth
Exports,YoY3MMA
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
ElectronicIntegratedCircuitChina's"NewTrio"
Others
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
Jun-23
Sep-23
Dec-23
Mar-24
Jun-24
Sep-24
Dec-24
Mar-25
Jun-25
Sep-25
Dec-25
Mar-26
Source:CEIC,MorganStanleyResearchestimates.“NewTrio”includesEVs,lithiumbatteries,andsolarcells.
8
Chinahasbeenwideningitsleadinglobalexportsince2022;WeexpectfurtheraccelerationgivenChina’sbestpositioninginglobalAI/EnergyCapexsupercyclesupplychain
…whilecontinuingtoplayacriticalroleinglobalsupplychaindespitediversification
Chinalikelytocontribute16.5%ofglobal
exportmarketshareby2030…
China'stradebalancewithUS
China'stradebalancewiththetop5
economieswhosetradesurpluswiththeUShasrisenthemost
+US$255bn12/2018,25
12/2018,420
-US$255n
0
Mar-18Mar-19Mar-20Mar-21Mar-22Mar-23Mar-24Mar-25Mar-26
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
US$bn,12mtrailingsum
280
165
Source:Haver,MorganStanleyResearchestimates.
MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH9
Asia/EM/China2Q2027indextargets–Widerangeacrossbull/base/bearcases
Index
Current
Price
MSTarget
Price
(2Q-2027)
MSTop-DownEPSYoY%ConsensusEPSForecastYoY%
MSTarget
FwdP/E
2Q-2027
Consensus
12mFwdP/ECurrent
Dec-26
Dec-27
Dec-28
Dec-26
Dec-27
Dec-28
BaseCase
TOPIX
3,829
4,300
12%
216
9%
235
9%
263
12%
224
11%
251
12%
276
10%
17.5x
16.4x
MSCIEM
1,711
1,800
5%
125
40%
136
9%
141
4%
130
51%
154
19%
174
13%
13.0x
12.4x
MSCIAPxJ
879
900
2%
59
40%
64
8%
65
2%
61
51%
73
19%
82
12%
14.0x
13.6x
HangSeng
26,394
28,400
8%
2,254
7%
2,408
7%
2,557
6%
2,270
12%
2,499
10%
2,733
9%
11.4x
11.3x
HSCEI
8,889
9,900
11%
939
5%
993
6%
1050
6%
921
5%
979
6%
1,047
7%
9.7x
9.8x
MSCIChina
81
91
12%
6.6
7%
7.2
10%
7.7
7%
6.5
14%
7.5
15%
8.5
13%
12.2x
11.9x
CSI300
4,872
5,400
11%
315
10%
347
10%
378
9%
350
18%
395
13%
442
12%
14.8x
14.6x
BullCase
TOPIX
3,829
4,890
28%
224
13%
255
14%
290
14%
224
11%
251
12%
276
10%
18.0x
16.4x
MSCIEM
1,711
2,100
23%
135
50%
147
9%
154
5%
130
51%
154
19%
174
13%
14.0x
12.4x
MSCIAPxJ
879
1,080
23%
65
53%
72
10%
73
2%
61
51%
73
19%
82
12%
15.0x
13.6x
HangSeng
26,394
32,400
23%
2,299
8%
2,504
9%
2,675
7%
2,270
12%
2,499
10%
2,733
9%
12.5x
11.3x
HSCEI
8,889
11,000
24%
958
6%
1,013
6%
1,079
7%
921
5%
979
6%
1,047
7%
10.6x
9.8x
MSCIChina
81
103
27%
6.7
8%
7.4
11%
8.0
8%
6.5
14%
7.5
15%
8.5
13%
13.3x
11.9x
CSI300
4,872
6,090
25%
321
11%
361
12%
401
11%
350
18%
395
13%
442
12%
16.0x
14.6x
BearCase
TOPIX
3,829
2,600
-32%
202
2%
209
4%
222
6%
224
11%
251
12%
276
10%
12.0x
16.4x
MSCIEM
1,711
1,100
-36%
103
16%
101
-2%
99
-2%
130
51%
154
19%
174
13%
11.0x
12.4x
MSCIAPxJ
879
590
-33%
50
21%
51
2%
51
0%
61
51%
73
19%
82
12%
11.5x
12.9x
HangSeng
26,394
18,000
-32%
2,141
4%
2,239
5%
2,378
6%
2,270
12%
2,499
10%
2,733
9%
7.8x
11.3x
HSCEI
8,889
6,200
-30%
892
3%
923
4%
945
2%
921
5%
979
6%
1047
7%
6.7x
9.8x
MSCIChina
81
60
-26%
6.1
3%
6.4
5%
6.7
5%
6.5
14%
7.5
15%
8.5
13%
9.1x
11.9x
CSI300
4,872
3,550
-27%
304
7%
319
5%
333
4%
350
18%
395
13%
442
12%
10.9x
14.6x
Source:MSCI,IBES,Bloomberg,FactSet,RIMES,MorganStanleyResearchestimates.Note:DataasofMay8,2026.
10
MorganStanleybull/base/bearcaseindextargethistoryforMSCIChinaandtheHangSengIndex
MStargetpricehistoryforHangSeng
MStargetpricehistoryforMSCIChina
43,000
40,000
37,000
34,000
31,000
28,000
25,000
22,000
19,000
16,000
13,000
10,000
BearCaseBullCaseBaseCaseHangSengIndex
Dec-13
Jun-14
Dec-14
Jun-15
Dec-15
Jun-16
Dec-16
Jun-17
Dec-17
Jun-18
Dec-18
Jun-19
Dec-19
Jun-20
Dec-20
Jun-21
Dec-21
Jun-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Dec-23
Jun-24
Dec-24
Jun-25
Dec-25
Jun-26
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
BearBullBaseMSCIChinaIndex
Dec-13
Jun-14
Dec-14
Jun-15
Dec-15
Jun-16
Dec-16
Jun-17
Dec-17
Jun-18
Dec-18
Jun-19
Dec-19
Jun-20
Dec-20
Jun-21
Dec-21
Jun-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Dec-23
Jun-24
Dec-24
Jun-25
Dec-25
Jun-26
Source:RIMES,FactSet,MorganStanleyResearchforecasts.Note:WeeklypriceindexdataasofMay12,2026.
MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH11
AssessingMorganStanley’sChinaframework–Weseebrighterspotsinearningsandcurrency
2025
YearEnd
2026
MidYear
2018
2H2021
2020PostCovid-19
Dec-22
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
x
Aug-23
xx
Neutral
x
Feb-25
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
xx
Neutral
Neutral
Economic/EarningsEstimates
x
x
x
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Valuation
Neutral
Liquidity
PolicyCycle
Neutral/Slightlynegative
Neutral/Slightlynegative
x
Interimtruce
x
Neutral/
Slightly
negative
xx
xx
x
Neutral
USDCNYtrend
Neutral/Slightlynegative
x
Interim
truce
Neutral
US/China&geopoliticaltensionRegulatory/Policypriority
Downgrade
Upgrade
Downgrade
Upgrade
Downgrade
Upgrade
PTincrease
PTincrease
Source:MorganStanleyResearch.Note:Tickindicatesourviewonthefactorisimproving,whilexindicatesthefactorisdeteriorating,andxxindicatesagreaterlevelofdeterioration.
12
ConsensusearningsestimatesforMSCIChinaandCSI300–Weexpectfurtherdownwardrevisionsfor2026EPSbutatdeceleratingspeed
MSEPSbase-caseforecastsforCSI300
atDec-26andDec-27
MSEPSbase-caseforecastsforMSCIChina
atDec-26andDec-27
450
400
350
300
250
200
MSEPSForecasts
150
2015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027
201820192020202120222023202420252026202712mfwd
MS
BullDec27:
361
MS
BaseDec27:
347
MS
BearDec27:
319
CNY500
MS
BullDec27:
7.4
MS
BaseDec27:
7.2
MS
BearDec27:
6.4
MSEPSForecasts
202520262027
2026202712mfwd
HKD
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
2014
2020202120222023
202220232024
201620172018
20192020
2024
2025
2019
2021
2015
2018
Source:IBES,Datastream,MorganStanleyResearch.Note:WeeklydataasofMay7,Source:IBES,Datastream,MorganStanleyResearch.Note:WeeklydataasofMay7,
2026.2026.
MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH13
Downwardearningsestimatesrevisionpressuretopeakoutin2Qandthenimprove
HistoryofChineseequitymarketquarterlyearnings
surprisesbynumberofcompanies
-14%-13%
-20%
-23%
-16%-19%-21%-18%-17%
-20%-22%-22%-24%-20%
-24%-25%-26%-24%-27-4%-24%
-29%-30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%-20%-30%-40%
-50%
MSCIChinaMSCIChinaAOnshore
-7%
-9%-10%-12%
-15%
-19%
-7%
-23%
17%
12%
9%
-3%
-14%
12%
9%
8%8%
10%
3%
-33%
-38%
-20%
-25%
-6%
-13%
-9%-11%-12%
-2%-4%-3%
-34%-33%
5%
3%
-36%
-14%
-14%
-30%
-5%
0%
2Q2018
3Q2018
4Q2018
1Q2019
2Q2019
3Q2019
4Q2019
1Q2020
2Q2020
3Q2020
4Q2020
1Q2021
2Q2021
3Q2021
4Q2021
1Q2022
2Q2022
3Q2022
4Q2022
1Q2023
2Q2023
3Q2023
4Q2023
1Q2024
2Q2024
3Q2024
4Q2024
1Q2025
2Q2025
3Q2025
4Q2025
1Q2026*
Source:MSCI,Bloomberg,RIMES,Factset,MorganStanleyResearch.DataasofMay7,
2026.1Q2026*representsmid-cutforMSCIChina,andfinal-cutforMSCIChinaAonshore.
12-monthforwardconsensusearningsestimate
revisionbreadth(ERB,3mma)
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
S&P500MSCIEuropeMSCIEMMSCIJapanChina
Source:Factset,MorganStanleyResearch.Note:MonthlydataasofApril2026.
14
MSCIChinaconsensusEPScompositionbyindustrygroup
100%
2%
49%
NM
11%
5%
30%
18%
13%
19%
1%
5%
-10%
100%
3%
31%
13%
31%
NM
NM
32%
24%
0%
-6%
43%
4%
13%
15%
11%
88%
9%
1%
19%
15%
10%
7%
8%
10%
12%
23%
13%
30%
80%
146%
31%
7%
3%
6%
25%
1%
-14%NM22%-52%3%-14%17%-20%-22%19%28%25%14%86%13%-32%55%-28%20%9%
-27%3%
0.3%
0.4%
-0.4%0.0%0.3%-2.6%0.1%-0.6%0.0%-0.4%-0.1%0.0%2.6%0.7%2.3%0.7%0.2%-5.4%0.2%0.0%0.5%0.0%
-0.6%0.1%
1.4%
0.4%
1.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.6%
0.6%
0.0%
0.3%
0.0%
0.0%
-1.0%2.9%0.5%0.4%0.2%3.2%0.5%0.0%0.8%0.1%0.0%
-0.1%
1.0%
0.9%
0.4%
0.0%
0.2%
1.7%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.7%
0.5%
1.7%
0.3%
0.2%
3.5%
0.2%
0.1%
1.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
ConsensusEPSContributionEPSGrowthEPSGrowthContribution
MSCIChina2025E2026E2027E2025E2026E2027E2025E2026E2027E
Automobiles&ComponentsBanks
CapitalGoods
Commercial&ProfessionalServicesConsumerDurables&Apparel
ConsumerServicesDiversifiedFinancialsEnergy
ConsumerStaplesDistribution&RetailFoodBeverage&Tobacco
HealthCareEquipment&ServicesHousehold&PersonalProducts
Insurance
Materials
Media&Entertainment
Pharmaceuticals,Biotechnology&LifeSciencesRealEstate
ConsumerDiscretionaryDistribution&RetailSemiconductors&SemiconductorEquipmentSoftware&Services
TechnologyHardware&EquipmentTelecommunicationServices
TransportationUtilities
0.091.600.160.000.100.140.130.210.010.100.030.010.690.191.060.090.080.67-0.01-0.010.180.020.09
0.15
0.181.630.240.010.120.150.160.250.010.120.030.010.620.381.090.110.090.880.02-0.010.230.020.09
0.14
0.261.700.270.020.130.280.180.250.020.140.030.010.670.411.220.140.111.150.040.000.300.020.10
0.15
MSCIChina5.86.67.6-2%14%15%-2%14%15%
Source:IBES,MSCI,FactSet,Datastream,MorganStanleyResearch.Note:DataasMay8,2026.
MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH15
MSCIChinaindexlevelearningsgrowthforecastsbyindustrybasedonMSbottom-upestimates
MSCIChinaSectors
EPSGrowthDecomposition
Index
weight*
2025E
2026E
2027E
ConsumerDiscretionary
24%
(33%)
17%
42%
ConsumerStaples
3%
(0%)
26%
10%
InformationTechnology
7%
21%
2%
30%
HealthCare
4%
40%
4%
17%
CommunicationServices
18%
9%
8%
14%
Utilities
1%
2%
(3%)
5%
RealEstate
1%
(39%)
26%
14%
Financials
18%
7%
(3%)
7%
Energy
3%
(12%)
28%
9%
Materials
4%
29%
78%
5%
Industrials
4%
(1%)
7%
13%
MSbottomupforecastsofEPSgrowthforMSCIChina
(3%)
7%
15%
MStopdownforecastsofEPSgrowthforMSCIChina
5%
7%
10%
ConsensusEPSgrowthforMSCIChina
(2%)
14%
15%
Source:FactSet,Datastream,ModelWare,MorganStanleyResearch.Note:DataasofMay8,2026.*OnlyindexweightofMorganStanleyResearch-coveredstocksthatareMSCIChinaconstituentsarecounted.Henceitmaynotsumto100%duetocoverage.
16
WeseestrongerexportsgrowthbenefitingfromglobalAI/EnergyCapexsupercycle;Moreclarityneedstobeseentocallasustainablereflation
ExportsdrivinggrowthamidAIandenergycapex
super-cycle
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
ChinaRealGDPGrowthbyExpenditure,%
5.05.04.84.7
1.5
0.7
0.2
1.3
1.3
1.8
0.8
0.8
1.6
1.6
0.7
1.0
1.5
1.0
1.5
2.1
2019202020212022202320242025E2026E2027E
NetExportsGFCFGovernmentConsumption
HouseholdConsumptionChangesinInventories——RealGDP
Source:CEIC,MorganStanleyResearchestimates.
Inflationisrisingbutreflationisnarrow
YoY%
MSe
CPIPPIGDPDeflator
9
7
5
3
1
-1
-3
Jun-11
Dec-11
Jun-12
Dec-12
Jun-13
Dec-13
Jun-14
Dec-14
Jun-15
Dec-15
Jun-16
Dec-16
Jun-17
Dec-17
Jun-18
Dec-18
Jun-19
Dec-19
Jun-20
Dec-20
Jun-21
Dec-21
Jun-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Dec-23
Jun-24
Dec-24
Jun-25
Dec-25
Jun-26
Dec-26
Jun-27
Dec-27
-5
MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH17
Policytostayoncruisecontrolgivenresilientorganicgrowthandexportstrength
Augmentedfiscaldeficitwilllikelystayflatatthisyear,withnosupplementarybudgetin2H
Exportresiliencereducesurgencyforadditional
countercyclicaleasing
AugmentedFiscalBalance,%ofGDP
2%
-3%
-8%
-11.1%-11.7%-11.7%
-12.2%-15.4%
-13%
-18%
20222023202420252026E
BudgetBalanceTransferfromGovt.FundtoBudgetBalance
STBorPBoCProfitTransferLocalGovt.SpecialBondsforNewProjects
SocialSecurityFundLGFVFunding
PolicyBankFinanialBondsPSLforShartytownRenovation
NetLandSalesLocalDebtSwap
SpecialTreasuryBondsforReplenishingBankCapitalAugmentedFiscalBalance
YoY%
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
ExportsInfrastructureFAI
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Source:CEIC,MorganStanleyResearchestimates.
18
Tier-1citypropertysalesshowingsignsofimprovement,butsustainabilityremainskeytowatch
Monthlyprimaryhousingsales
(thunit)
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
-
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%-40%-60%
-80%
Salesunit-Total
Salesunity-y-Total
2013-01
2013-09
2014-05
2015-01
2015-09
2016-05
2017-01
2017-09
2018-05
2019-01
2019-09
2020-05
2021-01
2021-09
2022-05
2023-01
2023-09
2024-05
2025-01
2025-09
Source:CREIS,MorganStanleyResearch.Note:Monthlydataasofend-March2026.
Housinginventoryamong70cities
(mnsqm)
600
500
400
300
200
100
-
InventoryGFA-Total
Inventorymonths-Total(RHS)
Averageinventorymonths-Total(RHS)
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2013-01
2013-09
2014-05
2015-01
2015-09
2016-05
2017-01
2017-09
2018-05
2019-01
2019-09
2020-05
2021-01
2021-09
2022-05
2023-01
2023-09
2024-05
2025-01
2025-09
Source:CREIS,MorganStanleyResearch.Note:Monthlydataasofend-March2026.
MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH19
Recoveryemerginginsecondarypropertypricesacrossselecttier1cities,whilethenationalmarketcontinuestolag
Beijing,ShanghaiandShenzhensecondarypropertypricesshowingsignsofrecoverysinceFeb-26
(2004=100)
1,400
1,300
1,200
1,100
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
-
Shanghai
GuangzhouChengdu
Beijing
ShenzhenTianjin
2011-01
2011-07
2012-01
2012-07
2013-01
2013-07
2014-01
2014-07
2015-01
2015-07
2016-01
2016-07
2017-01
2017-07
2018-01
2018-07
2019-01
2019-07
2020-01
2020-07
2021-01
2021-07
2022-01
2022-07
2023-01
2023-07
2024-01
2024-07
2025-01
2025-07
2026-01
Source:CREIS,MorganStanleyResearch.Note:Monthlydataasofend-March2026.
Top10citiessecondarypricesapproachingflatm-m;Top100stilldecliningbutataslowerpace
1.50%
1.00%
0.50%
0.00%
-0.50%
-1.00%
-1.50%
10citiessecondarypricesm-m
100citiessecondarypricesm-m
2019-07
2020-01
2020-07
2021-01
2021-07
2022-01
2022-07
2023-01
2023-07
2024-01
2024-07
2025-01
2025-07
2026-01
Source:CREIS,MorganStanleyResearch.Note:Monthlydataasofend-March2026.
20
MSCIChinatradesat11.9x12-monthforwardP/E,~4%discountvs.MSCIEM
MSCIChinastilltradesatdiscountstoothermajor
globalequitymarkets
MSCIChinaFwdP/Evs.MSCIEMFwdP/E
1996199820002002200420062008201020122014201620182020202220242026
MSCIChinaTOPIXMSCIEMS&P500MSCIEurope
28x
26x
24x
22x
20x
18x
16x
14x
12x
10x
8x
6x
20.8x
16.4x
14.6x
12.4x
11.9x
MSCIEMFwdP/E
MSCIChinaFwdP/E
5yraverageofMSCIChinaFwdP/E
MSCIChinaP/Epremium/(discount)%toMSCIEM(RHS)
+1SD
-1SD
20.0x
18.0x
16.0x
14.0x
12.0x
10.0x
8.0x
6.0x
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Jan-20
Jul-20
Jan-21
Jul-21
Jan-22
Jul-22
Jan-23
Jul-23
Jan-24
Jul-24
Jan-25
Jul-25
Jan-26
Source:Datastream,MSCI,MorganStanleyResearch.Note:DataasofMay8,2026.
MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH21
MSCIChinavs.USDCNY–Weseemildappreciationtocontinue;positiveforequities
MSCIChina
CNYperUSD(RHS)
MSCNYForecast(RHS)
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
7.6
7.4
7.2
7.0
6.8
6.6
6.4
6.2
6.0
6.786.72
6.75
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20
Dec-21
Dec-22
Dec-23
Dec-24
Dec-25
Dec-26
Source:CEIC,MorganStanleyResearch.DataasofMay8,2026.MSChinaEconomicsteamexpectsUSDCNYtoreach6.78,6.72and6.75byend-2Q26,3Q26and2026.
22
US-Chinarelationship–Weexpectthetrucetocontinuewithselectedrelaxationretradeandtechrestrictions;Overallapositivecatalystforequitymarketbutnotagamechanger
oneitherside
Outcome:
•ChinacouldagreetoincrementalpurchasesofUScommodities(e.g.soybeans,aircraftandenergy),signalgreateropennesstonon-
advancedUSchips,easeregulatorypressureoncertainUS
companiesoperatinglocallyandoffermoreclarityonfutureexportsofcriticalmaterials.
•USmightoffermodesttariffadjustments,exemptionsordelaysinadditionaltraderestrictions.
Overall,incrementalcommitmentsratherthanstructuralchange
Summitcancelledorpuntedaheadofproposedmeeting
Triggers:
•EscalationinUS-Iranconflict(andChina’spossiblemoreexplicitroleintheconflict).
•DeteriorationinUS-Chinarelations.
Outcome:
•Existingtradetensionsandtechrestrictionspersistorintensify.
•Potentialplannedconcessions(e.g.expandedChinesepurchaseofUSagriculturalproductsorlimitedtariffrelief)wouldlikelybe
deferred.
•Additional(andlikelytargeted)exportcontrolsorinvestmentrestrictionscouldemerge
Moredurablestabilizationofthebilateralagreement
Outcome:
•Large-scaleChinesecommitmentstopurchasingUSagriculturalandenergyproducts.
•Formaltariffrollbacks.
•Reciprocalmarketaccesscommitments,andclearerframeworksaddressinginvestmentscreeningandsupply-chainsecurity.
•Possiblyextendedtofentanylcooperationorfinancialmarketaccess.
•Advancedchiprestrictionsremain,butbothsidesestablishclearerlicensingforlower-endchipsandcommercialsemiequipmen
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