全球碳定价现状和趋势报告

2026

pricing

iStateandTrendsofCarbonPricing2026

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ThecutoffdateforthedatausedinthereportwasApril1,2026unlessotherwisestated.

iiStateandTrendsofCarbonPricing2026

Acknowledgements

ThedevelopmentofthisreportwasledbyAnthonyMansellwithsupportfrom

AshiaBioSawe,ShreyaRangarajan,MustafaOzgurBozcaga,JiaJunLeeandJuanMata,andundertheguidanceofJosephPryor.Contributions,includingondata

andinformationonemissionstradingsystems,wereprovidedbytheInternational

CarbonActionPartnership.S&PGlobalEnergyandAlliedOffsetsalsosupportedthedevelopmentofthisreport.

ThisreportbenefitedgreatlyfromtheinsightsandcontributionsfromAaronTam,AlanaClement,AlexandraAndreaMaiteCampmas,AlienorCameron,Anasuya

Raj,AnnaBoneta,AnushreeArunShetty,AricGliesche,ArnarHilmarsson,Basak

Odemis,BeateDansone,BenRattenbury,BotaAkhmetova,BritishColumbiaMinistryofEnergyandClimateSolutions,CaliforniaAirResourcesBoard(CARB),Carolina

Giovanelli,CarolynFischer,CleanEnergyRegulator(Australia),DaniyarDzhamalov,DavidHynes,DepartmentofClimateChange,Energy,theEnvironmentandWater(Australia),Directorate-GeneralforClimateActionattheEuropeanCommission,DirkHeine,DraganDemirovic,EnvironmentandClimateChangeCanada,Euijin

Jung,GabrielSaive,GjermundLienMoland,HarshaniAbeyrathna,HughSalway,IanParry,IlzeKamarute,IrynaSikora,JamieFergusson,JichongWu,JoeGlyn,

JoelGould,JolanteKrastina,JonathanBeaulieu,JuanMata,JulieCôté,Jung-ae

Park,JurisLukss,JussiKiviluoto,KatieKeegan,KellyKonrad,KimRicard,Kirwan

Caitriona,KlasWetterberg,KonstantinosTheodoropoulos,KristinnBjarnason,Krittaya

Chunhaviriyakul,KuhleMxakaza,LaurenChan,LucaLoRe,LuisTineo,MadhubhashiniGunathilaka,ManadaThejani,MaralSotoudehnia,MarcSadler,MariaTsiranidou,

MarkKenber,MarlenGoerner,MartinaBosi,MarylaMaliszewska,MichaelPat

O’Donoghue,MinistryforNationalEconomy(Hungary),MinistryofEconomy,TradeandIndustry(Japan),MinistryofEnvironmentandProtectedAreas,GovernmentofAlberta.,MinistryofFinance(Albania),MinistryoftheEnvironment(Japan),MitémoChevalier,MouradZiani,NatashaStaffeldt-Jost,NateVernon,NationalCenterfor

ClimateChangeStrategyandInternationalCooperation,MinistryofEcologyand

Environment(China),NationalClimateChangeSecretariat(Singapore),National

EnvironmentAgency(Singapore),NdiafhiTuwani,NenadVlaketic,NicolasGarceau,NikolaJovanović,NilanthiKumuduniVidyalankara,NinaFoster,OficinaEspañoladeCambioClimático(Spain),OgnjenPopovic,PaulBonmartin,PaulineFournel,PhilippIscher,PhoebeGolden,RobertShih,ScottCutler,SebastienCross,SeoyiKim,SharlinHemraj,SimonBlack,SimonFellermeyer,SusanaEscária,SusanneRiedener,Sven

Doruiter,SwedishEnergyAgency,TheDanishMinistryofTaxation,TiagoCardoso,TokyoMetropolitanGovernment,ValjusIlari,VeliAuvinen,WilliamHynes,WilliamL’Heudé,WilliamSpace,YashodhaLekamge,YeshikaMalik,andYongchulPark.

ThisreporthasbeendevelopedaspartoftheGlobalKnowledgeProgramunderthePartnershipforMarketImplementation.

PARTNERSHlpFOR

MARKETMPEMNTATIO

P.M!

iiiStateandTrendsofCarbonPricing2026

TableofContents

iiACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

1ACRONYMSANDABBREVIATIONS

3FOREWORD

4EXECUTIVESUMMARY

7CHAPTER1

:

INTRODUCTION

12CHAPTER2:CARBONPRICING

29CHAPTER3

:

CARBONCREDITINGMECHANISMS

52ANNEXES

ENDNOTES

65

ExecutiveSummary

Chapter1

Chapter2

Chapter3

Annexes

Endnotes

Foreword

1StateandTrendsofCarbonPricing2026

AcronymsandAbbreviations

BCA

BorderCarbonAdjustment

IMO

InternationalMaritimeOrganization

CBAM

CarbonBorderAdjustmentMechanism(EU)

ITMO

InternationallyTransferredMitigationOutcome

CCC

CarbonCreditCertificate

MoU

MemorandumofUnderstanding

CCP

CoreCarbonPrinciple

MRV

Monitoring,ReportingandVerification

CCTS

CarbonCreditTradingSystem(India)

NDC

NationallyDeterminedContribution

CDR

CarbonDioxideRemovals

OIMP

OtherInternationalMitigationPurposes

CDM

CleanDevelopmentMechanism(KyotoProtocolera)

OECD

OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment

CORSIA

CarbonOffsettingandReductionSchemeforInternationalAviation

PACM

ParisAgreementCreditingMechanism

ETS

EmissionsTradingSystem

REDD+

ReducingEmissionsfromDeforestationandforestDegradationplus

GEI

GreenhousegasEmissionsIntensity

conservation

GHG

GreenhouseGas

TCP

TotalCarbonPrice

GX

GreenTransformation

tCO2e

metrictonsofcarbondioxideequivalent

ICAO

InternationalCivilAviationOrganization

TFFF

TropicalForestsForeverFacility

ICVCM

IntegrityCouncilfortheVoluntaryCarbonMarket

UNFCCC

UnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange

Chapter1

Chapter2

Chapter3

Endnotes

ExecutiveSummary

Annexes

Foreword

StateandTrendsofCarbonPricing2026

Carbonpricing

Averagecarbonpriceshave

nearlydoubledfrom

2016to2026

2026US$t/CO2e

21

10

20162026

71

34

ETSandcarbontax

revenuescontinuetoexceed

US$100billion

2025US$

105107

80

27

20242025

Ifpoliciesunderdevelopmentarefullyimplementedby2030,nearly

ofglobalGHG

emissionscouldbecoveredbyanETSorcarbontax

1/3

Carboncreditmarkets

230

42

190

188

Voluntaryuse

Creditretirementsaround10%lowerthan2024levels

MilliontCO2e

257

67

212

22

Complianceuse

190

202320242025

From2024to2025carboncreditissuancesincreased

8%

Thefirstprojectreceivedprovisionalissuancefrom

PACM

CORSIA-approvedprojectsreceiveda

US$1.50-6/tCO2e

pricepremiumoversimilarcreditsthatarenotyetCORSIA-approved

3StateandTrendsofCarbonPricing2026

Foreword

Ascountriesnavigateaperiodofheighteneduncertainty–fromfiscalpressuresandenergymarketvolatilitytogrowingdevelopmentneeds–policymakersare

increasinglyfocusedonhowtodelivergrowththatisbothsustainableandresilient.

Inthatcontext,carbonpricingandcarbonmarketscanplayasupportingrole.

Whendesignedwell,carbonpricingcanhelpcreateincentivesforefficiency,

innovation,andinvestment,whilesupportinggovernmentsinmobilizingrevenuesforbroaderdevelopmentpriorities.Carbonmarketscanhelpchannelinvestmentsintechnologicalandnaturalsolutionsthatadvancesmartdevelopmentgoals,fromimprovingindustrialefficiencytoprotectingnature.

Whatisincreasinglyclearisthattheseinstrumentscontinuetoevolveandexpand

globally.NewEmissionsTradingSystemsandcarbontaxeshavebeenimplementedinIndia,Japan,Mauritania,Serbia,andVietNam.Whilethesecountrieshavereachedimplementationatasimilarmoment,theirapproachesreflectdifferentinstitutionalcapacitiesanddevelopmentpriorities.Thereisnosinglemodelforcarbonpricing,

andsuccessfulpoliciesmustbegroundedinlocalrealitiesandneeds.

Atthesametime,wecanseesomeglobaltrendsemerging.Today,nearly30

percentofglobalgreenhousegasemissionsarecoveredbyadirectcarbonprice

across87implementedpolicies.TheentryintoforceoftheEU’sCarbonBorder

AdjustmentMechanismmarksafurtherevolution,extendingcarbonpricingtowards

internationaltrade.Lookingahead,additionalcountries—includingBrazilandTürkiye—arepreparingpolicies.

Carboncreditmarketsarealsoexpandingintonewareas.Asthisreporthighlights,creditscanfindnewmarketsiftheymeettherightcriteria,includingsupportinginternationalaviationtoachievetheirgoalsthroughCORSIA.AttheWorldBankGroup,ourobjectiveistosupportbothscaleandintegrityforcarbonpricingandcarbonmarkets.Thisincludeshelpingcountriesinmakingstrategicchoices,frombuildingtheinfrastructurethatunderpinsinternationaltransferstoworkingwith

policymakerstoinformcarbonpricingdesign.

Thisyear’seditionoftheStateandTrendsofCarbonPricingreportalsoprovidesanopportunitytoreflectonthepastdecade.Viewedoverthislongerhorizon,severaltrendsstandoutclearly:carbonpricinghasexpandedsignificantly,withmorediverseapproachestoitsdesign,andsteadilyincreasingcarbonprices.Carbonmarkets

haveexpandedbothinsizeandthepotentialusestheyserveandnowexistinamoreelaborateecosystemtogenerate,trade,andevaluatecredits.Ihopethatthisyear’sreportcontinuestosupportinformeddebateandpracticaldecisionmakingina

rapidlychanginggloballandscape.

PaschalDonohoe

ManagingDirectorandChiefKnowledgeOfficer,WorldBankGroup

Chapter1

Chapter2

Chapter3

Endnotes

ExecutiveSummary

Annexes

Foreword

ExecutiveSummary

5StateandTrendsofCarbonPricing2026

CARBONPRICING

29%

1.Directcarbonpricingcovers29percentofglobalgreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsthrough87implementedpolicies.

•GlobalGHGemissionscoveredbyEmissions

TradingSystems(ETSs)havetripledsince2016,risingfromeightpercenttoover24percent;bycontrast,thesharecoveredbycarbontaxeshasremainedrelativelystableataroundfourtofivepercent,withincreasesin2026drivenbynationalETSsinIndia,JapanandVietNam.

•IfETSsandcarbontaxescurrentlyunder

developmentarefullyimplemented,by2030nearlyone-thirdofglobalGHGemissionswillbecoveredbycarbonpricing.

•AlthoughtheEU’sCarbonBorderAdjustment

Mechanism(CBAM)coverslessthan0.5percentofglobalGHGemissions,itsformaladoption

hasservedtoincreaseinterestinimplementingbothcarbonpricingandotherbordercarbonadjustments.

2.DirectcarbonpricesacrosscarbontaxesandETSshaveincreasedbysevenpercentsinceApril2025.

•Theaveragecarbonpriceacrossimplemented

instrumentshasdoubledbetween2016and2026fromUS$10/tCO2etonearlyUS$21/tCO2e,drivenbyETSpriceincreases.

•Whileaveragecarbontaxrateshaveremainedrelativelyconstant,scheduledincreasesin

2026havetakeneffectinjurisdictionsincludingSingapore,whichincreaseditscarbontaxrateby80percent.

•PricesinETSshaveexperiencedsignificant

volatilityin2026,particularlysincerecent

disruptionstoglobalcommoditymarketsbegan.

3.AnnualgovernmentrevenuesfromETSsandcarbontaxesin2025rosebytwo

percenttooverUS$107billion.

•CarbonpricingrevenuecollectedbygovernmentshasrisenfromunderUS$30billionin2016tooverUS$100billioneachyear,inrealterms,since2021.

•Thevastmajorityofrevenuesoccurindevelopedeconomies,notingthatcarbonpricesin

developingeconomiesaregenerallylower,and

theuseofallowanceauctionsiscurrentlylimitedinETSsinmajormiddle-incomecountries.

•Carbonpricingrevenuescontinuetobedirectedtowardclimatemitigationinvestments,includingJapan’snewGX-ETS,whichwillchannelfuturerevenuestowardanationalfundforenergy

transitionprojects.

Chapter1

Chapter2

Chapter3

Foreword

Endnotes

Annexes

ExecutiveSummary

6StateandTrendsofCarbonPricing2026

CARBONCREDITMARKETS

1.Overallcarboncreditissuancesroseeight

percentfrom2024to2025,still20percentbelow2022levels,butmorethan80percentabovethelevelofissuancesadecadeago.

•Governmentalcreditingmechanismshave

increasedinnumberfrom24to34overthepast

10years,withcreditissuancesrisingbynearly

40percentin2025comparedto2024.

•Issuancesfromindependentcreditingmechanismsdecreasedbyaroundfourpercentbetween2024and2025butremainaround70percentoftotal

creditissuances.

•ThefirstcreditsunderthenewlyoperationalParisAgreementCreditingMechanism(PACM)were

provisionallyissuedtoacleancookstovesprojectinMyanmar.

2.Retirementsofcarboncreditsdeclinedbymorethan10percentfrom2024to2025,attributedtocreditsusedforcomplianceinCaliforniareturningto2023levelsafteraten-foldspikein2024.

•Creditsusedforvoluntarypurposesdominateretirements,representingover80percentofthetotalcreditsretiredin2025.

•Beyondcurrentretirements,futuredemand

signalscanbeseenintheUS$12billionofofftakeagreementsforfuturecarboncreditssignedin

2025,markingathree-foldrisefrom2024levels.

•Projectsthatreceiveeitherhighratingsfrom

third-partyprovidersorhighintegritylabelsareincreasinglysoughtbybuyersinbothcomplianceandvoluntarycarboncreditmarkets.

3.Carboncreditpricesacrossprojecttypes

declinedslightlyacross2025,butcreditsthatareeligibleforinternationalcomplianceor

obtainedhighratingscontinuetogenerateapricepremium.

•Thelargestpricemovementoccurredinforest

conservationprojectsinSoutheastAsia,where

constrainedsupplycreatedashort-termspikeinpricesforthesecreditsinthesecondhalfof2025.

•CarbonOffsettingandReductionSchemefor

InternationalAviation(CORSIA)eligiblecreditshavetradedsinceSeptember2025atpricesbetween

US$15/tCO2eandUS$22/tCO2e,whichexceedsthepricerangeformostothercredittypes(US$1–14/tCO2e).

•Thereisgrowingevidenceofacorrelationbetweenhowaprojectisevaluatedbyratingagencies

anditsmarketprice,reflected,forexample,inan

87percentpriceincreaseforeachratingbandforreforestationprojects.

Chapter1

Chapter2

Chapter3

Foreword

Endnotes

Annexes

ExecutiveSummary

Chapter1

Introduction

8StateandTrendsofCarbonPricing2026

CHAPTER1:

Introduction

1.1Carbonpricingisanimportantpartofgovernments’policytoolbox

Governmentsarecurrentlyfacingunprecedenteddisruptionstoglobal

commoditysupplies.ThereductionofglobaloilsupplyinMarch2026,estimated

ataround10millionbarrelsperdayrepresentsthelargestoilshockonrecord.1In

addition,disruptionofshippingthroughtheStraitofHormuzisimpactinginternationaltradeinothercommoditiessuchasnaturalgas,fertilizerandaluminum.Although

developmentsareshiftingrapidly,atthetimeofwritingtheshortfallinoilsupplyanddisruptiontoothercommoditieshavenotyetbeenalleviated.

Thisyear’sreportisbeingpublishedasgovernmentsbegintograpplewith

thesedevelopments.Policymakersarenavigatingtheimpactsofcommoditypriceincreasesandsupplydisruptionsontheirpopulations.ThisincludesthepotentialtoadjustcarbonpricingpoliciessuchasEmissionsTradingSystems(ETSs)orcarbon

taxes.Discussionsareongoinginsomejurisdictions,suchasintheEUwherechangeshavebeenproposedtotheEuropeanUnionEmissionsTradingSystem(EUETS)andacomprehensivereviewofthepolicyisscheduledforJuly2026.

2

Inotherinstances,governmentshavealreadytakenactions,suchasthegovernmentofIreland’s

announcementonApril12todelayanincreaseinitsnationalcarbontaxfromMaytoOctober2026duetorisingfuelcosts.

3

Thisreportlargelyreflectsdevelopmentsandtrendspriortodisruptionsinglobalcommoditymarkets,butitcouldbehighlysignificantoverthecoming12months.

Whenviewedoveralongertimeframe,manygovernmentsarechoosingto

implementcarbonpricingasatooltowardachievingdevelopmentandeconomicobjectives.Directcarbonpricingthroughacarbontaxoremissionstradingsystem

cancontributetowardachievingcountries’ownemissionreductiontargets,includingNationallyDeterminedContributions(NDCs)submittedtotheUnitedNations

FrameworkConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCC)bynationalgovernments

andlegislatedtargetssetbysubnationalgovernments.Forexample,anETSwitha

decliningabsoluteemissionscaporintensitybaselinecanincentivizecoveredfacilitiestoreducetheiremissionsovertime.However,carbonpricingcanofferimportant

long-termbenefitsbeyondclimatemitigation,includingfacilitatinginvestmentflows,promotingaffordable,domestically-sourcedenergy,increasingenergysecurityandprovidinganewsourceofgovernmentrevenue.Further,carbonpricingcanforma

componentofbroaderpolicyreformpackages,suchasrestructuringenergytaxationorasaresponsetointernationaltrademeasuressuchasbordercarbonadjustments.

Between2016andthestartof2026,carbonpricinghasexpandedanddiversified.Thepillarsofcarbonpricingremain:directcarbonpricingthroughcarbontaxesand

ETSs,alongsideindirectcarbonpricingmeasuressuchasreducedfossilfuelsubsidiesandenergytaxes.TheStateandTrendsreportserieshastrackedthegrowthofdirectcarbonpricingoverthepastdecade,andbeyond.Thesecarbonpricingmechanismsarecomplementedbyotherpoliciesandregulations,suchasportfoliostandardsforelectricitygeneration,andreformsoflegacypoliciesthatpredatetheprioritizationofdecarbonizationasaprojectdevelopment.

Chapter2

Chapter3

Foreword

Endnotes

ExecutiveSummary

Annexes

Chapter1

9StateandTrendsofCarbonPricing2026

Adecadeago,thecarbonpricinglandscapewasmorelimitedthanitistoday.

In2016,39carbontaxesandETSswereimplementedglobally,coveringaround

12percentofglobalGHGemissions.TheParisAgreement,whichwasadoptedin

December2015,didnotfeatureitsownoperationalmarketmechanisms.Instead,

internationalcarbonmarketsfocusedonunitscreatedbytheflexibilitymechanismsundertheKyotoProtocol,includingthosecertifiedundertheCleanDevelopment

MechanismandJointImplementationmechanisms,thoughdemandforthesecreditshadalreadypeakedseveralyearsearlier.Bycontrast,creditsfromindependent

creditingmechanismsrepresentedasmallershareoftotalissuance,andweremostlyusedbycompaniesaspartofvoluntaryclimatecommitments(priortothelater

expansionindemandforsuchcredits).

Overtheinterveningyears,carbonpricingapproacheshavebecomemore

numerousandmoreheterogeneous.Between2016and2026,thenumberof

implementedcarbontaxesandETSsmorethandoubled,alongwiththeshare

ofglobalGHGemissionstheycover.UndertheParisAgreement,Article6

(furthercodifiedatCOP29afterthemajorityofruleswereadoptedatCOP26)providestheframeworkthatenablescrosscountryengagementoncooperativeapproaches,includingcarbonmarkets.Thisincludes,forexample,cooperationtohelpcountriesachievetheirNationallyDeterminedContributions(NDCs).New

categoriesofemissionspricingarealsobeingoperationalized.TheInternationalCivilAviationOrganization(ICAO)agreedtoestablishtheCarbonOffsettingandReductionSchemeforInternationalAviation(CORSIA)in2016,andthesystemtransitionedtoitsfirstphasein2024.Airlineswillberequiredtosurrendereligibleunitstomeetcomplianceobligationsin2028.TheEuropeanUnion’sCarbon

BorderAdjustmentMechanism(EUCBAM)isthefirstcarbonpriceappliedto

importedgoods.Its“definitivephase”commencedin2026.Developmentsin

eachoftheseapproachesforprovidingpriceincentivesareaddressedindetailinsubsequentchapters.

Carboncreditmarketsareamechanismtomobilizebothpublicandprivate

finance,particularlyindevelopingcountries.Carboncreditsdirectprivatecapital

towardprojectsthatreduceorremoveemissionsandcanhelpachievebroader

developmentobjectivessuchasimprovinghealthoutcomesorenvironmental

protection.Thesizeofthecarboncreditmarkethasincreasedsignificantlysince2016,drivenbyvoluntarydemandforcarboncredits.ThetradedvalueofcarboncreditswasestimatedtobeoverUS$500millionin2024,belowthehighestobservedlevelof

US$2.1billionin2021butmorethandoublethe2016value.

4

Recentbuyers’interestincreditshasbeenforprojectsfocusedonnature-basedactivitiessuchasconservationandreforestation.Forexample,between2021and2024,70percentofallcapital

committedordirectlyraisedforcarboncreditsw