瑞银-全球经济与策略：我们处理过的10（+1）个最难客户问题汇编-The Compendium-The 10(+1)toughest client questions we've fielded-20260526

a§ WilliamDengPoweredPoweredbyUBSEvidenceLab婚§2 婚§3 a§4 ArendKapteyn deterioratedabout1.3-1.4stappearsnarrowerthanin'21/'22.toberunning16%belownormal,a§5CompositesupplychainstressCompositesupplychainstressindicatorJan16Oct17Jul19Apr21Jan23Oct24Jul26Apr14GlobalshippingGlobalshippingmomentumAllothershipping/cargoJan-24May-24Sep-24Jan-25May-25Sep-25Jan-26May-26z-scoreApr-2676543210changeMarchangeApr76543210changeMarchangeAprO/IO/IO/IshippingshippingshippingHarperDrewyairChinaGlobalEMUAsiaex-ChinaO/IO/IO/IshippingshippingshippingHarperDrewyairChinaGlobalEMUAsiaex-ChinaAirfreightBalticglobalUSregionalISMglobalDMEMcostcostCH/USCH/EUcostglobalPetersenshippingfrreightshippingcostglobalAsia-USAsia-EUfreightvolumeshippingcostcostIATA-2-2543210WorldBankSupplyChainStressIndex(rhs)NYFedandWorldBankSupplyChainTrackersMlnsTEU21300300-30May-00May-05May-10May-15May-20May-2590-daysumofindexofnewsSupplyDistruptionsonly(left)AllSupplyDrivers:Commodityprices,Supplydistruptions,Govnerment,&Other(right)450375300225150750-75-15060 a§6AndrewGarthwaitedeepintherighttail.a§76087140283044222201582010%to15%15%to20%>=20%3%to4%4%to5%>5%42<0%0%to5%5%to10%<1%1%to2%2%to3%12mfwdEPSgrowth1000900800700600500400300200100042270007000650060005500500045004000May-25Jul-25Sep-25Nov-25Jan-26450040003500300025002000AIAIwinnersInflationhedgesLosersfromhighenergycostsGermany Australia Indonesia0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2%2%-1%-1%-3%-4%-4%-4%-4%-4%-4%-5%-5%-6%-6%-8%-9%-10%-11%-12%-12%-14%-16%-17% -20%-10%0% a§8AlanDetmeisterAbigailWattWeexpecthimtoarguethatdata.a§94.64.344.64.33.4Measuresoflabormarket8.88.48.09%8%7%6%5%4%3%2%1%0%FOMCparticipants20262027ChairofFRBoard&FOMCKevinWarshKevinWarshViceChairofFRBPhilipJeffersonPhilipJeffersonViceChairforSupervisionMichelleBowmanMichelleBowmanFRBGovernorLisaCookLisaCookFRBGovernorMichaelBarrMichaelBarrFRBGovernorChristopherWallerChristopherWallerFRBGovernorJeromePowell*JeromePowell*FOMCViceChairNewYork:JohnWilliamsNewYork:JohnWilliamsFOMCMemberFOMCMemberFOMCMemberFOMCMemberCleveland:BethHammackPhiladelphia:AnnaPaulsonDallas:LorieLoganMinneapolis:NeelKashkariChicago:AustanGoolsbeeRichmond:ThomasBarkinAtlanta:?SanF:MaryDalyAlternateMemberAlternateMemberAlternateMemberAlternateMemberChicago:AustanGoolsbeeRichmond:ThomasBarkinAtlanta:?SanF:MaryDalyBoston:SusanCollinsSt.Louis:AlbertoMusalemKansasCity:JeffreySchmidCleveland:BethHammackParticipantParticipantParticipantBoston:SusanCollinsSt.Louis:AlbertoMusalemKansasCity:JeffreySchmidPhiladelphia:AnnaPaulsonDallas:LorieLoganMinneapolis:NeelKashkari*TermasChairendedMay2026,termasGovernorendsJan20280.60.3003/19/3601/28/5801/11/6605/18/7608/21/9010/31/0711/7/20240.96.04.03.02.00.06.04.03.02.00.0ActualFedfunds a§4.WhataretherighBhanuBawejaofstagflation.tilttowardqualityandmomentumalternatives-2.5%,endinginthebottomtercilrGDPrGDPYoYPMIStartLengthStartStartStartAug-56Apr-58607-2.9-4.351.539.8-11.73.65460.2-4.856.147.2-7307.1-1.9-9.072.130.9-639-0.1-5.360.529.4-4263.9-2.646.043.2-2.05164.6-3.256.741.3-519-0.6-2.554.038.2-Oct-223962.3-2.960.551.1-50-5-10a§underperformedduringstagflationaryperiods56-5868-7073-7578-8056-5868-7073-7578-8089-9000-0107-0821-2256-5868-7073-7589-9000-0107-0821-2256-5868-7073-7578-8089-9000-0107-0821-22duringpost12mth4030200-10-20-30-403020012mthprior12mthpriorduringpost12mth012mthpriorduringpost12mth012mthpriorduringpost12mth012mth12mthpriorduringBrentGold56-5868-7073-7578-8089-9000-0107-0821-2256-5868-7073-7578-8089-9000-0107-0821-2256-5868-7073-7578-8089-9000-0107-0821-2225022525020017515012510075250-25-50NegativeXU10014%33%-17%-17%34%33%56%50%37%29%12%15%-20%-26%-14%-30%-6%-7%49%46%88%85%32%25%55%54%Wheat11%8%58%45%60%49%-7%-4%85%77%90%88%-8%-9% a§ WilliamDengArendKapteynAbigailWattViewedinisolation,theglobalwithmorethan50%ofglobalGDP.whereAIgainsfaroutweightheMemorypricevsOilpricea§Tradeas%ofglobalGDPTradeas%ofglobalGDPbyproductgroup4.5Total3.8%Automaticdataprocessingmachines3.5Automaticdataprocessingmachines3.53.02.52.00.50.0Servers&DataCenterRacksProcessors(CPUs/GPUs)NetworkingRoutingEquipmenteqp.Total2.1%OtherOtherRemainingRefinedPetroleumProductsPetroleumGases(incl.LNG)MemoryCrudeOilElectronicintegratedcircuitsAIequipmentOil,Gas&PetroleumProductsbenefitingfromAItradeorbeingneteAI*AI*Trade(%oftotaltrade)0400-20-4050-10ContributiontoYTDindexreturnACWIgrowth33mmaYoY%Globalimportsbycategory30TechAutoOtherFuel50-5-10-1512131415161718EstimatedAIcontributiontorecontributcontributiontorealGDPgrowth(pp)-last4QAInetexportsAIcapex/investmentPotentialAIspilloverResidualnon-AIcontribution0USTaiwanKorea8642 a§ AlviseMarinogainedattentionWhatisde-dollarizatidevelopmentconstrainttowideradopta§1.000.500.0080%75%70%65%60%55%88847874Shareasaglobalcurrencyinthetradefinancemarket(%)98765432107.306.906.80Jan-24Jun-24Nov-24Apr-25Sep-25Feb-26 a§AlanDetmeisterinflationAIwilllikelyleadtohdowninflation,butitwillprobablya§Figure37:AIinvestmentandwetimehighs12%12%12-monthchangeinp6%0%-6%-12%-18%12-monthchangeinquantity80%40%0%-40%-80%-120%Apr-86Apr-96Apr-06Apr-16Apr-26Jan-26Cost-cuttingJan-25Announcedjobcutsbyreason(%)AIMerger/AcquisitionDemanddownturn09PercentPercentoffirmssayingAIisin'productionatscale'Predicted12mearlierinpriorsurveys0%Nov-23May-24Oct-24Mar-25Oct-25Mar-26AIisinproductionatscaleacrossmultiplebu45%&units43%40%withfallingtrendinflation,butitwasnotfromtheGFCtothepandemic10%9%8%7%6%5%4%3%2%1%0%notably,buttheunemploymentcontinuetofal4321 a§...withlimitedimpactoninflationandgrowthbemitigatedbythefactthatthexpenditurereprior a§0.450.400.350.350.330.300.290.20.270.090.080.060.060.050.050.030.0120220278797665AprNumberofcountries80515321Mar3002502000279256872.5%2.5%2.0%1.5%1.0%0.5%0.0%0.350.0婚§20 Country/regionEnergypricesupportmeasuresIncomesupport(transferstohouseholdsGermanysupportforlow-incomehouseholdsuntilend-August.Companiesallowedtopaya€600tax-exempt"fuelallowance"toemployees.ItalyTransferstolower-incomehouseholds,supportfortransportandlogistLowerVATonelectricityfrom21%to10%;cutinfuelpricesby30¢/litre;discountof20¢/lforagricultureandtransportNinecountrieshaveimplementedhouseholdSweden5pfueldutycutextendeduntilend2cutininfueldutyonrTemporaryVATreductionforattractions,childandtheatretickets,andfreebustravelforchildrenagedfivetSupportforlow-incomehouseholdsusingheatingoilonmotorfueluntilJune3.IndianainGeorgia-one-timeinc(4cent/l)effectiveApril20-Septemberprovidesomereliefinpublictransportationcost,includingsubsivehiclesondieselfuelcost,LPGsubsidiesffeestocommercialvehiclesforusinggoverTurkeythatthecutinfuelexcisetaxesoffest75%oftheincrSouthAfricapetrolinApril-Mayandt23%to8%onpetrolanddieThegovtplanstointroduceawindfalltaxonenergycompHungaryIntroducingmaximumretailpricethemarginsofwholesaleandretaildistributorsanIntroductionofacaponfuelretailers'marginandareductionintheAustraliaFreepublictransport,fuelsuppSupporttohelpsecurefuelandfsupportetc($7.5bn).Interestfreeloansformanufacturing&logisticsfirNewZealandTemporarytaxcreditof$50pwforlow-incomehouseholds.Measurewillremaininplaceforupto1yr,oruntilpriceofpetrolfallsbelow$3/lforfourconsecutiveweeksApproximately0.2%ofGDPtoprovidepetroleumpricesupport,fuelsubsidiestofisheriesandagriculturalindustry,andtosupportnaphthasupply.Othermeasures,ThailandBt6bnwelfarecardtopupsfor1month;Bt2bntransportfuelsubsidies/costoflivingsupport;fertilisersubsidies.AbiggertaxemergencyborrowingpackageofuptoBt400bnwasapprovedon9May-splitevenlybetweenshort-termsupportforhouseholdsincludingconsuinvestmentcomponentaimedatacceleratingthetransitiontorenewableenergy.Whiletheoppositionhasfiledanobjectiontotheemergencyborrowingbilltotheconstitutionalcourt,thegovernmenthassaidthattheimplementationofshort-termstimuluswouldgoaheadmeanwhile.MalaysiaRetailpricesfixedforRON95,whichtoadditionalRp200-300tnifoilpriceconfirmedyet.婚§21 Country/regionEnergypricesupportmeasures(fueltaxcuts,pricebrakes,etc.)Incomesupport(transferstohouseholds,sectoralsubsidies,etc.)PhilippinesTransferstofarmers(P2,300perperson)amountingtoP10bn;transporttransferstoPUVdriversamouSingaporeIncome-basedandbusinesssupport,includingrebatesandtargetedsupportfortransportworkersVietnamCuttingenvironmenttax,specialconsumptiontax,andVATto0%,theestimatedcostoftheinitialphraseisabout0.whichisequivalentto0.06%ofGDP.IndiaOilmarketingcompanieslargelyabsorbingalargeburdenoftheenChina'sretailpetroleumpriceisnotadjustedproportionallywhenglobaloilpricehikestoabove$80andcappedwhenglobalpriceregulated.OnMarch24andApril7,Chinafurtherhalvedfuelpriceadjustments,withthetotalcostestimatedatRMB13billion(around0.01%ofGDP).Thesecosteffectivelyabsorbedbythebroaderpublicsectortosomeextent,theyarenotreflectedinthegovernment’sfiscalaccounts.adjustmentsreturnedtonormalafterApril7,butthegovernmentmayreinstatethemifpricesMexicoThegovernmentisattemptingtoputalidongasolineprices(particularlythelowoctanemix)anddieselthroughagreementswithfueldistributors(cappingtheirmarginsatsomeMXN2perliter)butmostlythroughthereductionfuels.Thegovernmentallowedforafullpass-throughofhigherglobaloilpricesinMarch(fuelpriceup~3-%m-o-m)Subsidiestotransportationworkers(taxidrivers);atevouchersforpurchaseofcookinggasColombiaNone,besidesannouncingreducedfiscalspacefpricesthisyear(however,subsidiesWith80%offueldistributorsoutofthefuelstabilizationfund,thegovernmenthasnotbeenabletoimplementastrategytooffsetvulnerablehouseholdsistheArgentinaflattopreventpassthroughfromsharpriseininternationaloiluntilendofJune.Thegovernmentincreashouseholdsfrom50%to75%ofthetotalpriceThefederalgovernmentimplementedtemporarytaxexemptionsandsubsidiesongasoline,diesel,jetpass-throughofhigherinternationalpricesintodomesticfuelcosts.ownedoilcompany.FundingisexpectedtrevenuesfromoilroyaltiesandincreasedtaxationoftheoilThemeasureswereinitiallyapprovedforatwo-monthperiodbutretaintheoptionforextension,conditionalonmarketDespitetheseinterventions,thenetfirst-orderimpactoninflationisstillexpectedtobepositive(+30whichremainsthemostsignificantcomponentoftheCPIbasket(c.5%weight).Noadditionalbroad-basedincominitiativeremainsthlow-incomehouseholds.Theprogramcurrentlycoversapproximately15millionhouseholds(c.20%ofthepopulation)andisfacingupwardpressureoTaiwanThegovernmenthasextendedtheirdomesticpricemechanisenergyprices.Thegovernmenthascutimporttariffsforagriculturalproducts,removingbusinesstaxesonimportedagriculturalcommodities.proposedaeconomicreliefpackageat0.4%ofGDP,butnotyetapproved.a§ WilliamDengWeexpectinflationtdeflation.April'sweakgrowthmomentumintodeflation.profitsandgraduallylifta§21020192020202120222023202420252026400-10-30GrowthGrowthrate(%y/y)Growthrate(%y/y)80400-40-8050-520052008201120142017202020232026throughamarginsqueezChangeinindustrialprofitmargin(MarchvsQ425,ppt) MachineryandequipmentUtilitiesMining-6-4-202468 0840656045402014201620182020202220242026Outputpricewillworsenfurtherinthenearterm201420162018202020222024202650 a§MatthewMisharebetweenprivatecreditailscenariowithelevatedsoftwarethesizeoftheprivat~1.5tnandgrowingrapidlyNea