高盛-住房与抵押贷款监测：打造解决住房短缺的工业化方案-HOUSING AND MORTGAGE MONITOR Manufacturing a solution to the housing shortage-20260604

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4June2026|11:56AMEDT

HOUSINGANDMORTGAGEMONITOR

Manufacturingasolutiontothehousingshortage

Shipmentsofmanufacturedhomesremainwellbelowpre-2000levels

A仟ordabilitycontinuestobeamajorconcerninthehousingmarket.Oureconomicsteamestimatesthereiscurrentlyashortageofapproximately3-4millionhomesnationwide.

Oneapproachforincreasingthesupplyofhomesatmore

a仟ordablepricepointsistopromoteaccessto

manufacturedhousing.Manufacturedhomes(MH),

colloquiallyalsoreferredtoasmobilehomes,areresidencesthatareprefabricatedinafactorysettingandthen

transportedtotheirfinallocationforinstallation.This

methodnotonlystreamlinestheconstructionprocessbutalsoo仟erssignificantcostsavingscomparedtotraditionalsite-builthomes,makingmanufacturedhousingapromisingsolutionforthoseseekinga仟ordablehousingoptions.Therearecurrentlyabout8.4millionmanufacturedhousingunitsacrossthecountry.

Priorto2000,shipmentsofmanufacturedhomesaveragedabout265kayear(Exhibit1).Manufacturedhousing

experiencedaconstructionboominthe1990sdrivenby

overproductionandlaxlendingstandards.However,this

endedinasharpincreaseindelinquencies,whichwasthenfollowedbytighterlendingstandardsandincreasedzoning

restrictions.Theserestrictionsreducedtheattractivenessofmanufacturedhousing.Duringthehousingboomoftheearly2000s,manufacturedhousingwasincreasinglyviewedasachoiceoflastresort.ThenegativesentimenttowardsthissectorhaslargelypersistedwithMHshipments

averagingjust80,000unitsayearsince2010.Accordingtothe2024AmericanCommunitySurvey,manufactured

housingunitsaccountforabout6%ofallowner-occupiedhousingintheUS,althoughthesharehasdriftedmarginallylowerfromaround7%in2010.

ThetopmarketsformanufacturedhomesareintheSouthandSoutheast(Exhibit2).Interestingly,severalstatesthatrankhighinmanufacturedhomesalesranklowinsingle

familyhomeconstruction,suggestingtheimportanceoflocalzoningandland-useregulationsasakeyconstrainingfactorforthegrowthofMH.Over54%ofmanufacturedhousingunitsareinruralareas(definedasterritorieswithfewerthan2,500people),whilesingle-familyhomesareprimarilyinlargeurbanareas(Exhibit3).Manufactured

homesaregenerallysmallerthansite-builthomesandarehistoricallyviewedasstarterhomesforlower-income

households(Exhibit4).

ArunManohar

+1(212)902-8763|

arun.manohar@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

BenShumway

+1(801)578-2553|

ben.shumway@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

NethKarunamuni+1(212)934-0799|

neth.karunamuni@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,

orgoto/research/hedge.html

.

GoldmanSachsHousingan

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TableofContents

HousingForecastsandKeyCharts8

Economicgrowthremainspositiveyearoveryear

9

UShousinga仟ordabilityisstillpoor

10

Homesalesvolumehasfallen

11

Supplyofcompletedhomesremainsconstrained

12

33%ofnewGSEpurchasemortgageshaveDTIabove43%

13

HomeownershiprateshavetickeddowninQ12026

14

Sequentialhomepricegrowthhasslowed

15

MostUSmetrosareseeinghomepricegrowthstabilize

16

Householdbalancesheetmetricsremainresilient

17

SubprimeautoABSlosseshavegrown

18

2.2%ofmortgagedpropertieshavenegativeequity

19

30-yearFNMAprepaymentratesweredown16%inAprilvs.March

20

ConventionalMBSprepaymentratesdecreasedforhighercouponsinAprilvs.March

21

HighcouponGinnieMaeprepaymentsdecreasedmonth-on-month

22

About20%ofmortgageborrowersarein-the-moneyforrefinancing

23

TheFederalReserve’sagencyMBSassetsremainbelow$2.1trillion

24

AgencyMBSvaluationshaveimprovedrecently25

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CMBSdelinquencyratesremaincontaineddespitechallengingCREfundamentals26

HighCMBSnoterateswillbeanobstacletodebtrefinancing

27

Apartmentpropertypriceshavedeclined

28

CMBSspreadshavetightened

29

DisclosureAppendix

30

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Exhibit1:Shipmentsofmanufacturedhomesexperiencedasignificantdeclineafter2000andcontinuetostayatlowlevelstoday

Shipmentsofnewmanufacturedhomes

Thous.

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

Shipmentsofmanufacturedhomes(SAAR)Pre-2000average

Post-2010average

0

7577798183858789919395979901030507091113151719212325

Source:USCensus,HaverAnalytics,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit3:Manufacturedhomesaccountforagreatershareofhomesinruralareas

70%

60%

50,000people)

Distributionbygeographicalareas

SinglefamilyManufacturedHousing

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

UrbanCluster(2,500to

Rural(<2,500people)

UrbanizedArea(territorieswith>=50,000people)

Source:USCensus,2023NationalAmericanHousingSurvey,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit2:Severalstatesthatrankhighinmanufacturedhomesalesranklowinsinglefamilyhomeconstruction

18%

16%

14%

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

ManufacturedHousingshipments

Single-family(1-4units)housingauthorized

Source:USCensus,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit4:Typically,manufacturedhomeshavelesssquarefootagethansite-builtsingle-familyhomes

1500

2000

2500

3000

50%Distributionofsquarefootage

SinglefamilyManufacturedHousing

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

1000-

1500-

2000-

2500-

3000->=40004000

<500500-750750-1000

Source:USCensus,2023NationalAmericanHousingSurvey,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

4June2026<#>

Themainattractionofmanufacturedhousingisitsaffordability

Manufacturedhousingprovidesacost-e仟ectivealternativetotraditionalsite-builtstarterhomes.Amongvariousactionstoenhancehousinga仟ordability,expandingaccesstomanufacturedhousinghasreceivedbipartisansupportinrecentmonths.Manufacturedhomescanbeproducedatalowercostandaretypicallysmaller,therebycontributingtoincreased

a仟ordabilitydespitehighermortgagerates.Asaresult,easieraccesstoMHcanenablehomeownershipratestorise.Onaverage,manufacturedhousingisapproximatelyhalfasexpensiveassite-builthomes,excludinglandcosts(Exhibit5).

Exhibit5:Manufacturedhousingismoreaffordablevs.site-builthousing

0

20142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

$/sq.ft.180

16014012010080604020

AverageCostperSq.Ft.

Manufacturedhomes

Site-builthomes

Comparisonofaveragesaleprice(leftpanel)andaveragecostofstructurepersquarefoot(rightpanel)acrossmanufacturedhomesandsite-builthomes

0

20142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

$Thous.

600

500

400

300

200

100

AverageSalesPrice

Manufacturedhomes

Site-builthomes

Source:USCensus,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Zoning,financing,andnegativeperceptionarekeyimpedimentstomanufacturedhousingdemand

Manufacturedhousingdemandfacesmajorobstaclesfromlocalzoningregulations,financingdifficulties,andnegativepublicperception.Broadly,thereisalackofsufficientawareness.Ina2022ManufacturedHousingsurveyconductedbyFreddie

Mac,53%oftherespondentsreportedhavingneverheardoforbeingunfamiliarwithMH,whileonly17%reportedbeing

veryfamiliarwiththesector.Limitedaccesstoa仟ordablefinancinghasbeenamajorchallengeforthesectorinrecentyears.

Manufacturedhomesaretitledaseitherrealpropertyorpersonalpropertybasedonwhethertheownerownsthe

underlyingland.Basedonindustryestimates,about40%ofmanufacturedhousingunitsaresituatedwithinmanufactured

GoldmanSachsHousingan

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housingcommunities,wherethehomeownertypicallydoesnotownthelandbutratherpaysrenttothecommunityoperator.Whenthehomebuyerdoesnotownthelandonwhichthehomeisplaced,theyusechattelloanstofinancethepurchase.

Theseloanscomewithshorterterms,higherinterestratesandfewerborrowerprotections.Thecombinationofshortertermsandhigherinterestratesmakesthemlessa仟ordablethaniftheborrowerweretoobtainatraditionalmortgage.Also,inthecaseofpaymentdefaults,lenderscanmoreeasilyrepossesspropertiesbackedbychattelloans(astheyaretreatedas

personalpropertylikeautos)withouthavingtoinitiateaforeclosureprocess.

InresponsetoMHqualityissuesinthepast,HUDpublishedacomprehensivebuildingcodein1976thatsetminimum

materialqualityandenergyefficiencystandardsformanufacturedhousing.Aspartofthiscode,HUDrequiredmanufacturedhousingunitstobebuiltonapermanentsteelchassis.Whilethepresenceofthissteelstructuremayhavehelpedimprovethestructuralintegrityoftheunit,lenderslikelyviewedthehomeasmoreakintoamovablepropertythananimmovable

property.Thepresenceofapermanentchassisalsoincreasedthecostofthehome.

Finally,eveniftheborrowerownsthelandandobtainsatraditionalMHmortgage,thefixedcostsoforiginationmaybeprohibitivelyhighcomparedtosizeofthemortgage.

Proposedchangesareastepintherightdirection;however,modificationstolocalzoningregulationswillremainnecessary

Supportformanufacturedhousingisakeycomponentofthe21stCenturyRoadtoHousingAct,whichhasrecentlygarneredbipartisanbacking.Amongotherproposals,thebillaimstoeliminatethepermanentchassisrequirement,establishesHUDastheprimaryauthorityonconstructionandsafetystandardsformanufacturedhomes,andincreasestheloanlimitsof

FHA-insuredmanufacturedhousingloans.Removalofthepermanentchassisrequirementcanreducethecostof

manufacturedhomesby$5-10k,enablemorefioorplanfiexibility,andcouldmakeiteasiertoobtainlocalmunicipality

approval.Withoutapermanentchassis,lendersmaybemorelikelytotreatthesehomeslikesite-builtpropertiessincetheyarelesslikelytobemoved.Hence,financingtermsforMHborrowerscouldbecomemorefavorable.Theindustryisoptimisticabouttheseproposals(Exhibit6).

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Exhibit6:Theindustryisoptimisticabouttheeffectsoftheproposedmanufacturedhousingchangesinthe21stCenturyRoadtoHousingAct

Dateof

comments

Company

Comments

Profile

Ticker

SUI

SunCommunities

REIToperating

MHcommunities

4/28/2026

Hugelysupportiveofanythingthatsupportsattainablehousing.

Fromafederalperspective,wegettheintent,butmuchofthisislocal.

Theremovalofthechassisrequirementcreatessomereallyinterestingopportunitiespotentially,bothintheformofcostsavingsandmakingtheproductevenmoreaffordable,butatthesametime,beingabletobuildhousesthathaveadifferentspeclevelandaremoreappealingtonotjusttheconsumers,buttothepowersthatbeatthelocallevelthatultimatelyprovidetheapprovalsfordevelopmentthatwemaydosomeday.Sowethinkallthisispositive.Weremainoptimisticandencouragedbytheprogresswithit.

SKY

ChampionHomes

Manufactured

housingbuilder

5/26/2026

It'sclearthebipartisanfocusonsolvingtheaffordablehousingcrisisremainsstrong,includingsupportformanufacturedhousing.Morebroadly,wecontinuetomonitorHUDcodeevolution,chassisrulemaking,andzoningreformactivityatthestateandlocallevels.

CVCO

CavcoIndustries

Manufactured

housingbuilder

5/22/2026

Variouspartsofthebillenableproductinnovation,reduceregulatoryconfusion,improveconsumerandcommercialfundingavailability,andencouragezoningimprovement.

Source:Companyearningstranscripts,Bloomberg,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Recently,HUDreleasedafinalrule(e仟ectiveMarch2025)updatingthenationalbuildingcodeforfactory-builtmanufacturedhomesintroducingthefiexibilitytohaveuptofourunitsperstructure,whichcouldmaketheunitsmorecompetitive,

especiallyinurbanareas(inadditiontootherdesignupgrades).

However,thesechangesalonemaynotresolvealltheissuesfacingtheindustry.Inadditiontofederalinitiatives,changesto

localzoninglawsarealsorequired.Thesectorwillbenefittremendouslyifstatesallowmanufacturedhomestobetitledas

realproperty–MontanaandKentuckyrecentlypassedlegislationtotreatMHonparwithsite-builthomes,whilearecentlawchangeinTexaswillseemoreareaswithinthestatebeavailableforMHe仟ectiveSeptember2026.

Finally,iftheGSEsweretolaunchaprogramtofinancechattelloans,itcouldserveasanimportantbenchmarkforlendingstandardsfortheentireindustryandincreaseaccesstofinancing.

ThankyoutoPatriciaPachecoforhercontributiontothispublication.

4June2026<#>

HousingForecastsandKeyCharts

Exhibit7:Weforecasttotalmortgageoriginationvolumetobearound$2.2trillionin2026

Variable

GShousingandmortgageforecasts

2026

AnnualData

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2025

2026

2027

InterestRates

10-YearTreasury(%)

4.32

4.30

4.20

4.10

4.17

4.10

4.15

PMMS30-YearFixed-RateMortgage(%)

6.38

6.40

6.30

6.15

6.18

6.15

6.20

MortgageOriginations

Total1-4Family($Billions)

551

513

557

558

2,050

2,179

2,127

PurchaseOriginations

332

373

388

352

1,356

1,445

1,460

RefinanceOriginations

219

140

169

206

694

734

667

RefinanceShare(%)

40

27

30

37

34

34

31

Note1:Annualdataformortgageoriginationsarethesumofquarterlyoriginations.

Note2:Interestratesrefertoperiodendvalues.

Note3:SourcesforhistoricaldataareCensusBureau,NAR,Moody'sAnalytics,FederalReserve,FreddieMac,andMBA.

Note4:Shadedcolumnsreferenceactualreportedvalues.

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

4June2026<#>

Economicgrowthremainspositiveyearoveryear

Exhibit8:Economicgrowthremainspositiveyearoveryear

Year-over-yearchangeinGDP

%

15

4-QuarterpercentchangeinGDP

%

15

10

10

5

5

0

0

-5

-5

-10

-10

0708091011121314151617181920212223242526

Source:USBureauofEconomicAnalysis(BEA),GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit10:Nominalpersonalincomecontinuestogrow

Disposablepersonalincomepercapita

SAAR,$KSAAR,$K

70

70

65

60

55

50

45

40

DisposablePersonallncomeperCapita

65

60

55

50

45

40

151617181920212223242526

Source:BEA,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit9:Unemploymentrate

Measuresoflaborunder-utilization

%%

2424

2222

2020

1818

1616

1414

1212

1010

88

66

44

22

030405060708091011121314151617181920212223242526

UnemploymentRateU-4U-5U-6

Source:BLS,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit11:Financialconditionshaveloosenedinthelastmonth

GoldmanSachsFinancialConditionsIndex

lndex

102

101

lndexFinancialConditionslndex

102

101

100

100

99

99

Tightening98

98

97

97

96

1314151617181920212223242526

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

4June202610

UShousingaffordabilityisstillpoor

Exhibit12:Rentalaffordabilityissuperiortomortgageaffordability

Housingvs.RentalAffordabilityIndices

Rent/IncomeRatio

MortgagePayment/IncomeRatio

LessAffordable

000102030405060708091011121314151617181920212223242526

%

40

35

30

25

20

15

%

40

35

30

25

20

15

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit13:OurUShousingaffordabilityindexremainslow

GSHousingAffordabilityIndex

GSHousingaffordabilityindex

160

150

140

130AIfiinliy

120

110

100

90

80

70

60

Index

160

150

140

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

60

000102030405060708091011121314151617181920212223242526

Index

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit14:Currentcouponmortgagebasishastightenedto119bpthismonth

Mortgagebasis(currentcouponmortgagerate—5/10-YearTreasuryrate)

1011121314151617181920212223242526

bp

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

bp

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

Mortgagebasisvs.Treasuries

IGOAS

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

4June2026<<

Homesalesvolumehasfallen

Exhibit15:ExistinghomesalesincreasedinApril

Pendingandexistinghomesales

IndexPendingHomeSalesIndexMill.,SAAR

135ExistingHomeSales(RHS)7.5

1257.0

6.5

115

6.0

1055.5

955.0

4.5

85

4.0

753.5

653.00102030405060708091011121314151617181920212223242526

Source:NAR,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit16:Housingstarts

NAHBhousingmarketindexandhousingstarts

Index

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

000102030405060708091011121314151617181920212223242526

Mill.

2.4

2.2

2.0

1.8

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

NAHBHousingMarketIndexHousingStarts(RHS)

Source:NAHB,CensusBureau,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit17:Homebuyersentimenthassomewhatstabilized

FannieMaeHomePurchaseSentimentIndex

Index

95

90

85

80

75

70

65

60

55

Index

95

90

85

80

75

70

65

60

55

111213141516171819202122232425

HomePurchaseSentimentIndex

Source:FannieMae,HaverAnalytics,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

4June2026<2

Supplyofcompletedhomesremainsconstrained

Exhibit18:MonthssupplyincreasedinAprilfornewsingle-familyhomes

Months’supplyofsingle-familyhomes

Months

Months

MonthsSupplyofExistingSingle-FamilyHomesMonthsSupplyofNewSingle-FamilyHomes

11

11

9

9

7

7

5

5

3

3

11

121314151617181920212223242526

Source:NationalAssociationofRealtors(NAR),CensusBureau,HaverAnalytics,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit20:Thepipelineofhomesnotyetcompletedremainssubstantial

For-salesingle-familyhomesavailablebystage

Thous.

700

Newsingle-familyhomesforsale

NotStartedUnderConstructionCompletedUnits

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

0001

02030405060708091011121314151617181920212223242526

Source:CensusBureau,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit19:SupplyofhomeslistedforsaledecreasedinApril

Totalhomesavailableforsale(seasonallyadjusted)

Mill.

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

Mill.

Totalhomesavailableforsale

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0002040608101214161820222426

Source:NationalAssociationofRealtors(NAR),GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit21:Theshareofloansinforeclosureremainsverylowat0.53%

Mortgageforeclosurerate

%

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

%

MortgageForeclosureRate

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

8689929598010407101316192225

Source:MBA,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

4June2026<3

33%ofnewGSEpurchasemortgageshaveDTIabove43%

Exhibit22:FRBSeniorLoanOfficerOpinionSurveyonmortgagelending

%

100

80

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

%

NetPercentofBa