摩根大通-特斯拉欧洲汽车会议- Tesla Inc Takeaways from J.P. Morgan European Automotive Conference 2026

TeslaInc

TakeawaysfromJ.P.MorganEuropeanAutomotiveConference

WeandourEUJPMcolleaguesrecentlyhostedTSLAInvestorRelations(IR)representative,AbhinavDavuluri,foravirtualinvestorgroupmeetingduringtheJ.P.MorganAnnualEuropeanAutoConference.Keytakeawaysfromourdiscussionswere:

•Near.termupdate.TSLA’ssalesmomentumisacceleratingintoMayacrosstheboard,withregistrationdatapointingtorobusttrendsinEurope(France+655%y/y,Norway+29%y/y,Denmark+136%y/y,Spain+113%y/y,Portugal+349%y/y,andSweden+71%y/y)andChina(+39%y/y),withinitialchannelchecksintheUSalsoindicatingacceleratinggrowth.TSLAviewsongoinggrowthmomentumsupportedbyamixofastrongorderbookexiting1Q26,coupledwithrelativelyeasierprior-yearcompswhenElonMusk’spoliticalinvolvementhurtthroughput.Notably,TSLAisstartingtoseestrongdemandtrendsemergingfromthecoincidenceof:1)ashrinkingEVcompetitivesetaslegacyOEMsdialdownEVlineupsatthesametimeasTSLAisrollingoutrelativelylessexpensivevariantsinitslineup;2)FSDawarenessandgrowingconsumerappetiteforL2/L3+solutions;and3)asurgeingasolinepricesglobally,bolsteringBEVcostadvantagesoverICEVs.

•FSDisemergingasavisibledemandlever,thoughadoptionremainsgatedbycountry.levelapprovals.ManagementnotedthatrisingFSDawarenessisdrivingTSLAconsideration,withrecentEuropeanapprovals(Netherlands,Lithuania,Estonia)citedaspartialdemandcatalysts.InEurope,FSDisonlyavailableinapprovedcountries,andthesystemdisablesitselfatbordercrossings.SeveralEUmarketsarelookingtotheNetherlandsasaprecedent,whichcouldacceleratebroaderapproval.InChina,managementclarifiedthatonlypreliminaryapprovalwasreceivedin2025,withfullapprovalstillpending,refutingrecentpressreports.

•Cybercabisprogressingthroughearlyproductionandvalidation.

ManagementemphasizedthatCybercabproductionisstillramping,withafocusonsmoothingoutputandvalidatingdatacollectionfromthenewformfactorandcamerapositionlayout.Aclearerviewonproductionandvalidationisexpectedby2Q26earnings,but2026-endrun-ratetargetsremaindependentonsupplierramp,withtheslowestsuppliersettingthepace.RecappingrationaleofCybercabdesignandspecifications,TSLAnotedthatthetwo-seatdesignisoptimizedforthe~80–90%ofconsumermilestraveledwith1–2passengers,enablingasmallerbattery,lowerBOM,andamorecostefficientrobotaxifleet.CybercabispositionedasthefoundationalelementforTSLA’srobotaxifleet,withadditionalvariantslikelytoberolledoutovertime.TSLA

NorthAmericaEquityResearch

02June2026

Underweight

TSLA,TSLAUS

Price(01Jun26):$415.88

Autos&AutoParts

RajatGuptaAC

(1-212)622-6382

rajat.gupta@

JashPatwa

(1-212)622-5472

jash.patwa@

YashBeswala

(1-212)622-0028

yash.beswala@

J.P.MorganSecuritiesLLC

Seepage3foranalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures.

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reiteratedthatmanufacturinginnovations,includingeliminationofthepaintshop,steer-by-wire,andareducedoverallfootprint,arekeycostdifferentiatorsvs.peersthatarereliantonthird-partyhardware.RegardingCybercabdeployment,TSLAhighlightedthatdeploymentwillbeUS-first,withinternationalrolloutsdependentonFSDandrobotaxiapprovals.Oncertification,TSLAisusingengineeringvehicleswithsteeringwheelsandpedalstoself-certifytoFMVSSstandards,andmanagementhighlightedatrackrecordofexceedingsafetyrequirements.Lastly,regardingcost,managementbenchmarksrideshareat$2-3/mile,consumervehicleownershipat$0.75–0.80/mile,ModelYrobotaxiat~$0.50/mileatscale,andtargetsCybercabat$0.30/mile,supportedbyhigherutilization,longerusefullife,andsuperiorenergyefficiency.

•Optimusisstillintheearlyinningsandisviewedasaplatformdevelopmentexerciseratherthananear.termcostunlock.TSLA’sfocusisonscalingmanufacturing,refiningusecases,andimprovingtrainingquality.Gen2/2.5didnotmeetthebarforscaledproductionortrainingfeedbackloops,promptingaredesignforGen3,whichmanagementbelieveshastherightarchitectureandhuman-likedegreesoffreedomtoleveragehumandatafortraining.Earlyunitswillbeexpensive,andproductionratewillbethebestproxyforTSLA’ssuccessinidentifyingusecases,capturedata,anddrivetrainingimprovementsastheprogramscales.

•Distributedinferenceopportunityisbeingactivelyexplored.ManagementnotedthatevenwithCybercabutilizationat50–60hoursperweek,asignificantamountofvehicledowntimeremains,positioningthein-carAI4chipandsupportinginfrastructureasapotentiallypowerfuldistributedcomputeresourceovertime,withOptimusandothervehiclefleetsonlylikelytocompoundcomputeavailability.WhileTSLA’schipispurpose-builtforFSDworkloads,thecompanyhasinitiatedexploringhowAI4andfuturesilicongenerationscouldbeleveragedforbroaderAIapplicationsbeyonddriving,withDigitalOptimusalreadyinearlydevelopmentasapreliminaryusecasewithinthebroaderdistributedinferenceroadmap.Managementemphasized,however,thatthisopportunityisstillgatedbyTSLA’sabilitytoenablethird-partydeveloperstoaccessandutilizeTSLA’shardwareandcomputestack.

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AnalystCertification:TheResearchAnalyst(s)denotedbyan“AC”onthecoverofthisreportcertifies(or,wheremultipleResearchAnalystsareprimarilyresponsibleforthisreport,theResearchAnalystdenotedbyan“AC”onthecoverorwithinthedocumentindividuallycertifies,

withrespecttoeachsecurityorissuerthattheResearchAnalystcoversinthisresearch)that:(1)alloftheviewsexpressedinthisreport

accuratelyreflecttheResearchAnalyst’spersonalviewsaboutanyandallofthesubjectsecuritiesorissuers;and(2)nopartofanyofthe

ResearchAnalyst'scompensationwas,is,orwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedbythe

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AllauthorsnamedwithinthisreportareResearchAnalystswhoproduceindependentresearchunlessotherwisespecified.InEurope,SectorSpecialists(SalesandTrading)maybeshownonthisreportascontactsbutarenotauthorsofthereportorpartoftheResearchDepartment.

ImportantDisclosures

·MarketMaker/LiquidityProvider:J.P.Morganisamarketmakerand/orliquidityproviderinthefinancialinstrumentsof/relatedtoTeslaIncorrelatedentities.

·AnalystPosition:AnanalystontheEquityorCreditcoverageteam,non-fundamentalanalystwhomayproducetraderecommendations,oramemberoftheirrespectivehousehold(s)hasafinancialinterestinthedebtorequitysecuritiesofTeslaIncorrelatedentities.

·BeneficialOwnership(1%ormore):J.P.Morganbeneficiallyowns1%ormoreofaclassofcommonequitysecuritiesofTeslaIncorrelatedentities.

Client:J.P.Morgancurrentlyhas,orhadwithinthepast12months,thefollowingentity(ies)asclients:TeslaIncorrelatedentities.

·Client/Non.InvestmentBanking,Securities.Related:J.P.Morgancurrentlyhas,orhadwithinthepast12months,thefollowingentity(ies)asclients,andtheservicesprovidedwerenon-investment-banking,securities-related:TeslaIncorrelatedentities.

·Client/Non.Securities.Related:J.P.Morgancurrentlyhas,orhadwithinthepast12months,thefollowingentity(ies)asclients,andtheservicesprovidedwerenon-securities-related:TeslaIncorrelatedentities.

PotentialInvestmentBankingCompensation:J.P.Morganexpectstoreceive,orintendstoseek,compensationforinvestmentbankingservicesinthenextthreemonthsfromTeslaIncorrelatedentities.

·Non.InvestmentBankingCompensationReceived:J.P.Morganhasreceivedcompensationinthepast12monthsforproductsorservicesotherthaninvestmentbankingfromTeslaIncorrelatedentities.

DebtPosition:J.P.MorganmayholdapositioninthedebtsecuritiesofTeslaIncorrelatedentities,ifany.

Company.SpecificDisclosures:J.P.Morgandoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.Importantdisclosures,includingpricechartsandcreditopinionhistorytables(if

applicable),areavailableforcompendiumreportsandallJ.P.Morgan–coveredcompanies,andcertainnon-coveredcompanies,byvisiting

/research/disclosures

,calling1-800-477-0406,ore-mailingresearch.disclosure.inquiries@withyourrequest.

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DateRatingPrice($)PriceTarget

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03-Oct-2326-Jan-24

03-Apr-24

03-Oct-2424-Oct-2412-Mar-2523-Apr-2503-Oct-2529-Jan-26

($)

UW

UW

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261.77251.60182.63166.63249.02213.65230.58237.97436.00

431.46

Thechart(s)showJ.P.Morgan'scontinuingcoverageofthestocks;thecurrentanalystsmayormaynothavecovereditovertheentireperiod.

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C

(CARS),Carvana(CVNA),DanaInc(DAN),DauchCorp(DCH),FordMotor(F),GarrettMotion(GTX),GeneralMotors(GM),GentexCorporation(GNTX),

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Overweight

(buy)

Neutral

(hold)

Underweight

(sell)

J.P.MorganGlobalEquityResearchCoverage*

51%

37%

12%

IBclients**

83%

79%

74%

JPMSEquityResearchCoverage*

49%

39%

13%

IBclients**

94%

93%

85%

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