房地产 -经济适用房作为一种有弹性的资产类别 通过可负担性获得回报 Affordable Housing as a Resilient Asset Class Returns through Affordability

CBRE

RETURNSTHROUGHAFFORDABILITY

AffordableHousing

asaResilientAssetclass

VIEWPOINT

Affordablehousing

inGermanyisnotonly

shapedbyregulationbutalsooffers

opportunitiesforvisionaryinvestorsinthecurrent

marketenvironment·

CBRERESEARCHJUNE2026

creatingResilienceReturnthroughaffordability

2CBRERESEARCH⃞2026CBREGMBH

MarketEntryastheNewscarcity

AccesstoaffordablehousinginGermanyisincreasinglyturning

intoastructuralbarriertomarketentry·unlikeinearlierphases,

affordabilitytodayisdeterminedlessbytheabsolutelevelofrentsandmorebytheconditionsunderwhichhouseholdscannewly

enterthehousingmarket·

Risingaskingrents,highconstructionandfinancingcostsandadeclininglevelofnewconstruction,reinforcedbyfallingbuildingpermitswhichalsopointto

limitednewsupplygoingforward,meetamarketstructureinwhichalargeshareofhouseholdsremainspermanentlydependenton

therentalmarket·whilerent-lawregulationstabilisesexistingrents,thesharplyrising

new-contractrentsdirectlyreflectthecurrentscarcity.Theresultingdivergencebetweeninplaceandmarketrentshassignificantlyraisedtheentryhurdlesfornew

users

Fortheseusersitisnolongerjustthelevelofrentsthatmatters,butaboveallthequestionofthe

market,costandregulatoryconditionsunderwhichaccessto

housingispossibleatall,andhowitremainsaffordablealongsideotherexpenses·

Forinstitutionalinvestorsanddevelopers,affordablehousingis

takingonnewinvestment-economicrelevance.whatmattersisnolongerjustrentgrowth,butthestructuralabilitytodeliverhousingeconomicallyunderchangedcostandfinancingconditions·Atthesametime,theperspectivesofsomeinvestorsareshiftingtowardsalongterminvestmenthorizon,drivenbyvolatilecapitaland

moneymarketsandtheexistinghousingstock·

Againstthisbackground,thisviewpointanalysesthemarketentrybarriersandregulatoryframeworkaswellastheirimpactonthe

demandsideoftheGermanhousingmarket·Thisgivesriseto

investmentopportunitiesfordifferentinvestortypes,particularlyinthesegmentofpricedampenedandpartiallyregulatedhousing

models·

shareoftenanthouseholdsinGermany(Eurostat,2024)

53%

changeinbuildingpermitsinGermany2020-2025(Destatis,2025)

40%

Rentgrowthinthetop7

markets,2020-2025(CBREResearchbasedonvalueAG

data)

27%

Averagerent-to-incomeratio(nationwideaverage,Destatis,2022)

28%

creatingResilienceReturnthroughaffordability

3CBRERESEARCH⃞2026CBREGMBH

Definition,ReferenceFrameworkandQuantifiedEntryHurdlesforAffordableHousing

Thequestionofaffordablehousing(housingaffordability)isnotonlyapricingtopicbutaconcreteaccess

question.Inthiscontext,housingaffordabilityisunderstoodnotasastaticmarketindicatorbutasamobilitymetric·Internationally,itismainlyclassifiedviathehousingcostburdenratio,i.e.,theshareofcurrenthousingcosts(rentandallancillarycosts)indisposablehouseholdnetincomeincl.socialtransfers).However,

commonthresholdsofaround30%(burden)andabove40%(overburden)areprimarilysuitedtocross

sectionalcomparisonsandonlypartiallycapturerealmarketentryconditions·Thedistinctionfromsocial

housingisessential·whilethelatterislegallydefinedandincomerestrictedinGermany,affordabilitydescribestherelationshipbetweenhousingcostsandincomeundergivenmarketconditions·

Thepotentialhousingcostburdenwhensigninganewrentalcontractcanbecontrastedwiththeburden

underexistingtenancies·Theresultingnewcontractpremium(calculationmethodologyintheappendix,p.11)illustrateshowstronglytherealburdensituationchangeswhenhouseholdsmove·Thisproducesacentral

asymmetry:whileburdenratios

forsittingtenantsremainmoderatethankstotenantprotection,newtenantsdirectlyfacecurrentmarketrentswithasignificantlyhigherburden.Intightmarkets,thisdampensrelocationmobilityandraisesentrybarriers·

LookingatGermancitiesandregions,theasymmetrybecomesspatiallyvisible·whilenewcontractsinnewlybuiltapartments(Berlin,Hamburg)canrequiremorethan40%ofhouseholdnetincome,

theburdeninotherregions(eg,Leipzig,Dresden,Dortmund)forsittingtenants

issometimeslessthan25%,

FIGURE1:Rentburden*(in%)inthetop20markets.Differencesbetweenin-placeandnew-contractrents

45

35

25

In-placecontract(existingstock)Newcontract(existingstock)Newcontract(newbuild)

source:CBREResearchbasedonvalueAGandtheFederalstatisticaloffice

"Note:Thechartshowsthepotentialrentburdenthathouseholdswouldfaceiftheysignedanewrentalcontracttodayinanexistingapartmentor

inanewlybuiltapartmentForthis,inplacerentswerederivedfromletforsalecondominiumsperlocationandthensetinrelationtoaverage

householdnetincome

creatingResilienceReturnthroughaffordability

4CBRERESEARCH⃞2026CBREGMBH

FIGURE2:sizeofthenew-contractpremiuminrentalhousinginGermanyatthedistrictlevel

source:CBREResearchbasedonvalueAGandtheFederalstatisticaloffice

Thecoloursexpressthedifferencebetweennew-contractrentsinexistingapartmentscomparedwithinplacerents.Thedarkertheshading,thelargertheaffordabilitydeltaornew-contractpremiumbetweeninplaceandnew-contractrents.Thesmallscaleanalysisofthenew-

contractpremiumrevealsclearspatialpolarisationFourspatialtypescanbedistinguished·

creatingResilienceReturnthroughaffordability

5CBRERESEARCH⃞2026CBREGMBH

citiesinstructurallyweakregions,highdelta

particularlyinEastGermancities(e.g,Halle,Leipzig,chemnitz,Rostock,Jena,Erfurt,Eisenach,

cottbus),butalsoinsomewestGermancities(e.g,kaiserslautern,Hof,Bayreuth),anabove-averagenew-contractpremiumemerges·Here,dynamicallyrisingnew-contractrents

meetahistoricallylowlevelofinmmplacerents,sothatentryhurdlesfornewtenantsareparticularlypronounced·Thesecitiesshowaboveaveragepopulationdynamics

andabsorbsignificantnumbersofpeoplefromtheirsurroundingregions·

suburbanareasofmetropolitanregions,elevateddelta

InthecloserandwidersurroundingsofBerlin,cologne,MunichandintheHannoverregiontoo,thedeltais

clearlyelevated·Demandspilloverfromthecorecitiesispushingnew-contractrentsinthesurroundingareas,whilein-placerentsremainatalowerlevel,Inthecorecitiesoftheseregions,buildinglandandshovel-readylandisonlyavailabletoalimitedextent,whichfurtherreducespotentialfuturenewsupplythereandpusheshouseholdsintothesurroundingareas·Thisdynamicisamplifiedbypopulationgrowthinthecorecities,

which,inadditiontolocalmigration,isincreasinglydrivenbyinterregionalandinternationalinflows·

High-pricedin-placemarkets,smallerdelta

IncitieswithalreadyhighinplacerentlevelssuchasMunich,Nurembergandstuttgart,thenewcontract

premiumtendstobesmall·sinceexistingcontractsalreadyreflecthighrents,

thedifferencetothenew-contractrentlevelissmaller·Housingaffordabilityhashistoricallybeenlowinthesecities,andthegaptonewcontractrentlevelsisthereforesomewhatsmallerthanintheregionsmentioned

above·

Ruralareas,smalldifferences

AcrosslargepartsoftheEastGermanperiphery,Lowersaxony,schleswigHolstein,northernHesseandnorthernBavaria,thedifferencesbetweeninplaceandnewcontractrentsaresmall·Lowerdemandanddecliningpopulationtrendskeeptheoverallrentlevellow,includingfornewcontracts·

ThisspatialdifferentiationcorrespondstothecBRE-Empiricavacancyindex,Ineconomicallystrongcentres,thevacancyrateisparticularlylow,whichfurtherincreasesthepressureonnewlyenteringhouseholds.In

rural-peripheralareaswithalownewcontractpremium,vacancyishigher,anindicatoroftheweakermarkettightnessthere·

Againstthebackgroundoffuturepopulationtrendsandthetightnessofthehousingmarket,particularlyinthesecondandthirdclusters,buildingauthoritieswillincreasinglyneedtotakemeasurestoreconcile

affordabilitywithhousingavailability·Here,thehistoricallystrongsocialhousingsector(sozialerwohnungsbau)inGermanycanbeonewaytoalsoleverageprivate

capital·

creatingResilienceReturnthroughaffordability

CBRERESEARCH⃞2026CBREGMBH

socialHousing:structuralGapandInvestmentRelevance

TheGermanhousingmarketshowsthecharacteristicsofaclassicmarketfailure·constructioncostsexceedthewillingnesstopayofbroaddemandgroups,newsupplyisfallinganddemandremainsunbrokenlyhigh·socialhousing(sozialerwohnungsbau)isanestablishedinstrumentaddressingthisdilemma·Itregulates

accessviaincomethresholds,cappedrentsandtime-limitedoccupancyrestrictions·

sincethemid1990s,thestockofsocialrentalunitsinGermanyhashalved.BY2030,afurtherdeclineof

around20%isexpected·Atthesametime,theactualregulatorydemandhasgrownsignificantlyduetothe

raisingofincomethresholdsforthewohnberechtigungsschein(housingentitlementcertificate)inmany

federalstates·Thestructuralundersupplyiswidespread·EveninfederalstateswithhighabsolutestockssuchasNorthRhinewestphalia,withacoverageofaround26%,orBerlin,witharound24%,onlyafractionofthe

potentiallyeligiblehouseholdsisserved.Hamburg,withmorethan40%,isanexception.InBaden

W⃞rttemberg,despitehigheconomicstrength,onlyaround54,000socialhousingunitsareavailableforaround800,000potentiallyeligiblehouseholds,acoverage

ofonlysevenpercent·Theaverageacrossmostfederalstatesliesbelow15%,

Thisconstellationispreciselywhatmakessocialhousingattractiveagainasaninvestmentsegment·publicsubsidiescushiontherecentlyincreasedconstructioncosts,securedoccupancystabiliseslongtermrentalincome,andinvestorsareofferedaregulatorilyanchoredriskreturnprofile.particularlyattractivearethosefederalstateswherelowcoveragemeetsdenselypopulatedareaswithlowaffordability·Atthesametime,ageneroussubsidylandscapeopensupnewopportunitiesforinvestorsinthissegment·

FIGURE3:stockofsocialrentalunitsinGermany(inmunits)

andconstructionpriceindexforresidentialbuildings(2021=100)

source:GermanBundestag(2024),Federalstatisticaloffice,CBREResearch

CBRERESEARCH⃞2026CBREGMBH

AffordableHousingasaFunctionalExtensionofsubsidisedHousing

Againstthebackgroundofthestructuralundersupply,theconceptofaffordablehousingisgaining

importance·unlikesubsidised(social)housing,affordablehousinginGermanyis

notalegallydefinedcategory,butdescribesaspectrumofprice-dampenedorpartiallyregulatedhousing

modelstargetinghouseholdsaboveclassicsubsidythresholds.Fromamarketandinvestorperspective,a

functionalinterfacebetweenregulationandthefreemarketemergeshere·Affordablehousingmodels

complementsocialhousingbutdonotreplaceit·Basedoninternationalempiricalevidence,affordablehousing

canbedefineduptoarentmmtommincomeratioofbelow40%.

Investorshaveawiderangeofsubsidisedoptionsavailableinthecurrentmarketenvironment·Inadditiontopuresocialhousing,numeroussubsidyinstitutionsofferhybridforms

thatgiveinvestorsaccesstopubliccapitalwhileatthesametimeallowingfreemarketmechanisms·Thiscreatesabroadspectrumofprice-dampenedorpartiallyregulatedhousingmodels,orientedtoincome

thresholdswithoutbeingfullyanchoredinsocialhousing·

Inpractice,thiscanresultinamixedapproachtohousingprovision,inwhichsubsidisedandfreelyfinancedunitsarecombinedwithinasingleproject·Thisstructureenablesatargeteddistributionofriskandreturn·publicloansandgrantsreducecapitalandconstructioncostsandstabilisethelongtermbasereturn·Freelyfinancedunitscreateadditionalearningsflexibilityandincreasetheflexibilitywithintheprojectstructure·

InindividualmarketssuchasBerlin,subsidyprogrammesshowthatthislogicisoperationallyviable·Longtermpublicloanswithmaturitiesofupto30yearscancarryaninterestrateof0%thereorincuronlyminoradministrativecosts·Thiscancoverasignificantshareofprojectfinancing·

Thesefinancingstructuresarecomplementedbytaxeffectsintheinitialphase·Therecentlypassed

decliningbalancesonderabschreibung(acceleratedspecialdepreciation)enablesadditionaldepreciationofupto5%peryearoverfouryears,beforethelinearmodelwith3%AfA(straightlinedepreciation)takeseffect·Thecombinationofdepreciationformsspecificallysupportsboththeprojectstartunderelevatedinterest

ratesandcappedrentlevels,andsecuresthelongtermreturnlevel·

crucially,thesemodelsdonotdependonmaximumrentlevels,butonstabledemand·Thiscreatesa

structurallongtermcompetitiveadvantageonthedemandsidecomparedwithpurelymarketbasedhousingproducts,especiallyinanenvironmentofconstrainedaffordability·

Inparallel,thelogicofvaluecreationisshifting·ongoingcashflowsaresystematicallyusedfordeleveragingandleadtowealthaccumulationovertheholdingperiod·Theshort-tomediumterm

exitislosingimportanceastheprimaryvaluelever,whileforwardfundingmodelsbecomemoreattractiveparticularlyforequitystronginvestors·valueiscreatedthroughthefinancingstructure,

thequalityofdemandandthestabilityofearnings·Thisresultsinaconsistentinvestmentmodelwithpredictablecashflows,reduceddownsideriskandstructurallyrobustreturnsinprosperingregions·

creatingResilienceReturnthroughaffordability

CBRERESEARCH⃞2026CBREGMBH

TransformationintheTransactionMarket

whileduringthelowinterestphasebuild-to-salemodelswithinforwarddealswerepreferredbydevelopers,afundamentaltransformationiscurrentlytakingplaceintheresidentialinvestmentmarket·Duetocost

increasescombinedwithhigherfinancinghurdles,particularlyequityweakdeveloperscannolongerbearthedevelopmentcoststhemselves·Atthesametime,asoutlinedabove,rentaffordabilityisincreasinglynolongerachievableduetothesecostincreases·Investmentpressureontheinvestorsidenonethelesspersistsandis

risingasequity,bondandmoneymarketsbecomemorevolatile·Equitystronginvestorsinparticulararemostlylong-termorientedandshowheightenedinterestinlong-terminvestments(e.g,pensionfunds,

insurancecompanies,sovereignwealthfunds).Forthese,investment

innewresidentialportfoliosrepresentsabondmmlikeinvestmentwithoutsignificantadditionalcosts·

Thistransformationisincreasinglyvisibleinthetransactionmarketaswell·Forwardfundingsareincreasinglyemergingasacomplementtoforwarddeals,financedbylongtermequity·whilethepublicsectorhasbeen

activeintheforwardfundingmarketinthepasttwoyears,itisnowincreasinglylimitedbyfiscalconstraints·

BasedoncBREtransactiondata,between2023and2025around25%ofthetotaltransactionvolumeinthe

residentialinvestmentmarketwasaccountedforbypubliclysubsidisedorsociallyboundhousingproducts.Atthesametime,impact-andESG-orientedresidentialstrategies,includingpublichousingcompanies,Article

8/9fundsandaffordabilityfocusedplatforms,reachedashare

ofcloseto30%oftheoverallmarket·Thetwocategoriesarenotmutuallyexclusive,sinceasubstantialshareofsubsidisedprojectsisatthesametimepartofhigher-levelESGorimpactstrategies·

whatstandsoutisnotsomuchtheabsolutedevelopmentofvolumesastheconstancyofrelativemarket

shares·Despitesharplyfluctuatingoverallmarketsize,thesharesofregulatedandimpact-drivenresidentialinvestmentsshownosignificantchangeovertime.Thesegmentthusactslessasadynamicgrowthdriverandmoreasastructurallystabilisingcomponentoftheresidentialinvestmentmarket,securingmarketliquidity

especiallyinperiodsofheighteneduncertainty·

Giventhecontinuedlowconstructionactivityandrisingsocietalandpoliticalpressure,itcanbeassumedthatthefederalandstategovernmentswilllaunchfurthersubsidyandsupportprogrammes·Today,individual

statesubsidyinstitutesarealreadyrespondingwithexpandedprogrammesandhigherbudgetallocations·

Thistrendislikelytopersistandfurtherincreasetheshareofsubsidisedandpartiallyregulatedhousing

productsintheoverallmarketoverthemediumterm,therebystructurallyexpandingtheinvestablevolumeinthissegment·

TaxEfficiencyintheportfolio

Returnlevers:AfA

depreciation

interestdeductionandcoststructure

creatingResilienceReturnthroughaffordability

CBRERESEARCH⃞2026CBREGMBH

capitalAllocationforAffordableHousing

Thegrowingimportanceofaffordablehousingisalsoreflectedinmediacoverage.Ananalysisofmorethan10,000specialistarticlesshowsastructuralupwardtrend(Figure4).whereasinthe1ggosanaverageof

around1ooarticlesperyearwerepublished,thenumberrosetoover850peryearbythepandemicphase,anincreaseofmorethaneightfoldwithinthreedecades·

Thisgrowingattentioncorrespondstosignificantcapitalflowsintothesector.ouranalysisoftheinvestmentvolumesmentionedinthearticlesshowsacleardominanceofpublicfunds·Around29percentofthecapitalmentionedcoesfrompublicsources,particularlykfw(statedevelopmentbank)subsidies,federalandstateprogrammesandmunicipalhousingcompanies.privateinvestorscontributearound14percent.Theremaining57percentareaccountedforbymixedfinancingstructures,anindicationofthegrowingrelevanceofpublicprivatepartnershipsinaffordablehousing·

ThefederalEH-55(EfficiencyHouse55)subsidyprogrammealonehas,sinceDecember2025,withavolumeofoverforaround23,400housingunits,contributedsignificantlytothecurrentmomentum.Atthe

sametime,institutionalinvestors,developersandimpactfundsarebecomingincreasinglyactiveinthesegment,oftenincombinationwithpublicsubsidies,asdescribedearlier·

Affordablehousingisthusdevelopingintoastandaloneassetclasswithgrowingcapitaldepth.ForinvestorswhoprioritiseESGcriteriaandlong-termcashflowstability,thissegmentoffersattractiveopportunities,

providedthattheregulatoryframeworkremainsreliable.

FIGURE4:Affordablehousing:mediaattention(2016-2026)

source:Immobilienzeitung(IZ)

Note:Analysisofmorethan10,000articlesonthetopicofaffordablehousingDataJanuarytoMay2026.

creatingResilienceReturnthroughaffordability

conclusion

ThetightsituationonGermanhousingmarketsreflectsastructuralimbalanceratherthanshorttermmarketcycles·Risingconstructioncosts,decliningnewconstructionandpersistentlyhighdemandmeetamarket

withlimitedmobilityandgrowingentrybarriers·Affordabilityisincreasinglybecomingaquestionofmarketentry·whilesittingtenantsbenefitfromstablecontractrents,householdsmovingtoanewapartmentfacesignificantlyhigherburdens·Theresultinglockineffectsreinforcesegmentationandshiftdemandtowardsregulatedandpricedampenedhousingsegments·

socialhousingcanonlypartiallyabsorbthisdevelopment·Thestructuraldeclineofregulatedstockandthewidespreadundersupplyshowthatitfunctionsprimarilyasastabilisingreferencesystem,notasamarketclearingsupplyinstrument·Atthesametime,publicbudgetsareincreasinglyconstrained,sothatapurelysubsidybasedsolutionisreachingitslimits.Thequestionofwhetheraffordabilitycanbeachievedthroughadditionalsubsidiesorthroughmarketablerentalmodelsisthusbecomingthecentralstrategicchoice·

Affordabilityisnotsolelyausermmsidetopic,butequallyaninvestormmsideone·Anyoneseekingtoeconomicallydevelopandholdaffordablehousinginthecurrentmarketenvironmentneedsviablefinancingstructures,

rangingfrompublicsubsidyloansandtaxleverstomixedmodelscombiningregulatedandfree-markethousing·Forwardfundingstructures,long-termequityandthecombinationofdeleveragingandstablecashflowsarereplacingshorttermdevelopmentandexitmodels·

Forinvestorsanddevelopers,thisrepresentsaclearparadigmshift·valuecreationisshiftingfromshortmmtermtransactionstolongtermportfolioholding,structuredwealthaccumulationanddemandstableearnings·

undertheseconditions,affordabilitydoesnotbecomeadragonreturns,butanintegralcomponentofalowriskinvestmentapproachwithpredictablecashflowsandstructurallyrobustreturns·

Inastructurallyundersuppliedmarket,itisnottimingthatisdecisive,buttheabilitytoeconomicallystructureandholdhousingforthelongtermunderrealisticmarketmmentryconditions·

contacts

Dr.JanLinsin

HeadofResearchGermanyTel.+4969170077404

jan.linsin@cbre.com

Jirkastachen

HeadofResearchconsultingcontinentalEurope

Tel.+4930726145034jirka.stachen@cbre.com

Michaelschlatterer

ManagingDirector,ResidentialvaluationAdvisoryservices

Tel.+4930726145260

michael.schlatterer@cbre.com

stefanwilke

ManagingDirector,

HeadofResidentialInvestmentTel.+4930726145055

stefan.wilke@cbre.com

Dr.steffenHeinig

seniorAnalyst

Tel.+4930726145111

steffen.heinig@cbre.com

©Copyright2026.Allrightsreserved.Thisreporthasbeenpreparedingoodfaith,basedonCBRE’scurrentanecdotalandevidencebasedviewsofthecommercialrealestatemarket.AlthoughCBREbelievesitsviewsreflectmarketconditionsonthedateofthispresentation,theyaresubjecttosignificantuncertaintiesandcontingencies,manyofwhicharebeyondCBRE’scontrol.Inaddition,manyofCBRE’sviewsareopinionand/orprojectionsbasedonCBRE’ssubjectiveanalysesofcurrentmarketcircumstances.Otherfirmsmayhavedifferentopinions,projectionsandanalyses,andactualmarketconditionsinthefuturemaycauseCBRE’scurrentviewstolaterbeincorrect.CBREhasnoobligationtoupdateitsviewshereinifitsopinions,projections,analysesormarketcircumstanceslaterchange.

.

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