2027年AI超大规模企业资本开支的预期过于保守（英）

PortfolioStrategyResearch10June2026|5:16PMEDT

USEQUITYVIEWS

MoreAIcapex,morevolatility

nConsensus2027hyperscalercapexestimatesaretooconservative.Analyst

RyanHammond

+1(212)902-5625|

estimatesimplyhyperscalercapexwillequal$920billionin2027,representinga

ryan.hammond@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

sharpdecelerationingrowthfrom84%in2026to22%in2027.Weestimatethat

BenSnider

ifincrementalinvestmentreaches2-3%ofGDP,similartothebuild-outof

+1(212)357-1744|

ben.snider@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

railroadsandautos,hyperscalercapexwouldreachroughly$1.1trillionin2027

JennyMa

(45%growth).Inamoreextremeupsidescenario,hyperscalercashfiow

+1(212)357-5775|

jenny.ma@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

generationandinvestmentgradecreditmarketcapacitywouldimplypotentially$1.4trillionincapex(89%growth).

DanielChavez

+1(212)357-7657|

daniel.chavez@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

nUpsidetoAIcapeximpliesupsidetoearningsandsharepricesofAI

infrastructurebeneficiariesinthenearterm.MostofthepricegainsintheAI

KartikJayachandran

+1(212)855-7744|

kartik.jayachandran@

infrastructurecomplexhavebeendrivenbyearnings.However,recentvaluationexpansionandpositioningdynamicssuggestadditionalvolatilityahead.TheP/EofthemedianAIinfrastructurestockhasexpandedto26x,thehighestmultiple

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

ChristopheSung

+1(212)902-3841|

christophe.sung@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

sincethelaunchofChatGPT.ThemedianP/EhasincreasedYTDwithin

Semiconductorsandpowerex-Utilitiesbutnotamongthehyperscalersnormemorystocks.

nInthemediumterm,investorsmustbalancestronger-than-expectedcapexspendingwiththerisksfromapotentialdecelerationinthatspendinganduncertaintysurroundingthepersistenceofrecentearningspower.Investorexpectationsthatearningswillpersistappearlessdemandingamongthe

hyperscalersrelativetoSemiconductorsex-Memory.However,recent

hyperscalerequityissuanceunderscorestheimportanceofpositiverevenuerevisions.

nCorporatecommentaryduringQ1earningsseasonpaintedasimilarpictureto

economy-widesurveysthatsuggestenterpriseadoptionisnascent.Roughly54%ofcompaniesdiscussedAIinthecontextofproductivityontheirearningscall.

However,just11%ofcompaniesquantifiedtheAIproductivitygainsona

specificusecaseandonly2%ofcompaniesquantifiedtheimpactofAI

productivityonearnings(vs.10%and1%,respectively,lastquarter).Therewaslittledi仟erentiationincompanymarginsandsharepricereactionsbetween

companiesthatdiscussedusingAIandthosethatdidnot.

nTheAIenabledversusAIdisrupteddebatewillpersistanddrivereturn

dispersion.Investorsaredebatingthe“terminalvalue”ofequitiesaslower-costcompetitionpotentiallyplacesdownwardpressureonincumbentrevenue

Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto

/research/hedge.html

.

GoldmanSachsUSEquityViews

10June20262

growthandprofitmargins.SoftwareP/Evaluationspeakedat39xlastyear,

troughedat21xinMarch,andcurrentlystandat25x,withwidedispersionbetweendatainfrastructureandservices-orientedstocks.Inanillustrativediscountedcashfiowmodel,weestimatethat85%ofthepresentvalueofSoftwarewasinthe

terminalvalueatthestartoftheyear.TheYTDdeclineinSoftwarevaluationscanbeexplainedbyonlymodestchangestolong-termgrowthandmarginassumptions.

10June20263

AI-exposedequities,andtheinfrastructurecomplexinparticular,havepoweredtheUSequitymarkettonewhighs.“Phase2”AIinfrastructurestockshaveralliedby40%sincethestartofQ2,drivenprimarilybystrongcapexspending.Notably,the

mega-caphyperscalershaverecentlyparticipatedintherallyasevidenceofreturnoninvestmenthasstrengthened.“Phase3”stockswithpotentiallyAI-enabledrevenues,suchasSoftware,havereboundedfromtheirlowswhile“Phase4”stockswiththe

largestpotentialproductivitygainsfromAIhavecontinuedtotradesideways.

Exhibit1:PerformanceofAI-relatedstocks

26

60

Dec-23Jun-24Dec-24Jun-25Dec-25Jun-26Dec-

Mega-caphyperscalers

AI

productivity

Software

Indexedreturnsof

AI-relatedportfolios

vs.equal-weightS&P500

280

260

240

220

200

180

160

140

120

100

80

AIinfra-structure

AIinfrastructure=GSCBAIP2,Software=IGV,AIproductivity=GSXUPROD

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Atthesametime,thereturndispersionwithinAI-exposedequitieshasreachedanewhighinQ2.LastweekinjectedvolatilitytotheAItrade,driveninpartby

disappointingAVGOearnings

andheadlinesabouthyperscalerequityissuanceand

amplifiedbyinvestorpositioning.

Thestandarddeviationofreturnsofabasketof

AI-exposedequitieshassurgedto53ppinQ2,markingthewidestdispersionofreturnssincethelaunchofChatGPT.Thatreturndispersionhasgenerallybeencreatedby

varyingdegreesofpositivereturnswithintheinfrastructurephaseincontrastwithpositiveandnegativereturnswithintheapplicationcomplex.

10June20264

Exhibit2:ReturndispersionofAI-exposedequities

standarddeviationofreturnsofGSTMTAIPbasketconstituents

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

pp

pp

pp

pp

pp

pp

pp

pp

Returndispersionof

AIbasketconstituents53

46

40

34

23

1919

14

26

39

37

16

19

22

1Q2Q3Q4Q

2023

1Q2Q3Q4Q

2024

1Q2Q3Q4Q

2025

1Q2Q

2026

Source:FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit3:DistributionofAI-exposedequities’YTDreturns

90th%ile

17%Average

-6%

10th%ile

Software(IGV)AIproductivity

(GSXUPROD)

59%

AIinfrastructure(GSCBAIP2)

150%

120%

90%

60%

30%

0%

-30%

-60%

DistributionofAI-exposedequitiesYTDreturns

Source:FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Thelatestlegoftheinfrastructurecomplexhasprimarilybeendrivenbyanother

waveofhyperscalercapexupgrades.Consensus2026estimatesforhyperscalercapexhaveincreasedby$200billionsincethestartoftheyear.Analystsnowexpectthegrouptospend$757billiononcapexin2026,representingyear/yeargrowthof84%.

Exhibit4:Consensusexpectsthehyperscalerswillspend$757billionin2026and$920billionin2027

$920

(+22%)

$757

(+84%)

$412

(+73%)

$1,200

$1,000

$800

$600

$400

$200

$0

2022202320242025Consensus2026

ORCL

MSFT

GOOGL

META

AMZN

Hyperscalercapex

(billions)

Consensus2027

$237(+54%)

$158(+21%)

$154

(-2%)

Source:FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Thehyperscalersareontracktoallocatealloftheircashfiowsfromoperationstocapexthisyear.Alongsidestrongcapexspending,thegrouphas

sharplyreduced

sharerepurchases.

10June20265

Exhibit5:Hyperscalersexpectedtoallocate100%ofcashfiowsfromoperationstocapex

S&P500Hyperscalers

Telecom

S&P500

TMT

120%

110%

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

199019952000200520102015202020252030

Capexas%ofcashflowfromoperations

Cons

2026

98%

Source:Compustat,FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Webelieveconsensus2027capexestimatesareonceagaintooconservative.

Consensusestimatesimplyhyperscalercapexwillequal$920billionin2027,

representingasharpdecelerationingrowthfrom84%to22%.Analystestimateshavebeentooconservativeduringeachofthepastthreeyearsbyanaverageof45pp.

Exhibit6:Consensushyperscalercapexestimatesversusrealizedcapex

84%73%

36%22%

Startofyear

54%

19%

120%

110%

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Consensuscapexgrowthestimates

forAIhyperscalers

2024202520262027

Realized/Current

22%

Source:FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit7:Recentconsensushyperscalercapexestimaterevisions

$0

StartofQ1earningsseasonCurrent

$1,200

$1,000

$800

$600

$400

$200

estimates

$920(+22%)

$757(+84%)

Consensushyperscalercapex

202520262027

$790(+17%)

$673(+64%)

$412

(+73%)

$412

(+73%)

Source:FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Thelatestearningsseasonandrecentcorporateissuancepointtoupsideriskto

consensuscapexestimatesin2027.Thelarger-than-expectedrevenuebacklogforthegrouphighlightsthepersistentimbalancebetweenAIsupplyanddemand.GoogleCloudandAmazon’sAWScombinedbacklogequaled$832billionasofQ1comparedwith

$358billionsixmonthsago.Ourequityanalysts

donotexpect

asupply/demandbalancewillbereacheduntil2H2027attheearliest.GOOGLstateditexpectsto“significantly

10June20266

increase”2027capexcomparedto2026andrecentlyraised$86billioninequity,inparttofundAIspending.Thereare

pressreports

thatMETAisalsoconsideringraisingequity.

Exhibit8:AIhyperscaler2027capexscenarios

2027AIhyperscalercapexscenarios

($billion)

$1250

65%

$2,000

$1,800

$1,600

$1,400

$1,200

$1,000$800

$600

$400

$200

$0

20262027investmentequals2%of

GDP

ConsensusConsensusIncrementalGSequityIncrementalCFOandIG

analystsinvestmentequals3%of

GDP

marketcapacity

$1433

89%

$920

22%

$950

26%

$757

84%

$994

31%

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Ourequityanalysts

believethattokenconsumption

willincreaseby24xthrough2030,ledbyenterpriseagents.Thehyperscalershavemessagedthattheircapex

spendingplansaredrivenbystrongdemandsignals.Hyperscalercapexwilldependontokendemand,energyintensity,andinputcosts.Higherinputcostsalsoputsupwardpressureonthenominaldollarsofcapexrequiredtosupportagivenamountoftokenconsumption.

Historicaltechnologycyclesprovideprecedentformorethan$1trillionincapexin2027.IncrementalAIspendingequatedto0.9%ofGDPin2025andisestimatedto

reach1.5%ofGDPin2026.Thisimpulseis

similarto

thepeakimpulseduringthe1990s,butbelowthepeakof2-3%duringtherailroadsandelectricmotorbuild-outs.We

estimatethat2027hyperscalercapexwouldequal$950billioniftheincrementalinvestmentimpulsereaches2%ofGDPand$1,250billionifitreaches3%ofGDP.

10June20267

Exhibit9:GSequityanalystsforecasta24xincreaseintokenconsumptionby2030

EnterpriseAgents

ConsumerAgents

20292030

120,000,000

100,000,000

80,000,000

60,000,000

40,000,000

20,000,000

Tokensprocessedpermonth

(GSestimate,billions)

0

2025202620272028

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit10:IncrementalinvestmentinemergingtechnologiesasashareofGDP

“USGenerativeAI”includes2026forecast

PeakHistorical

InvestmentImpulse:

ShareofGDPvs.

Pre-Productivity

BoomLevel

2.1%

2.2%

3.4%

4.5%

USGenerativeAl(2020s)

USTelecom(1990s)

USlCTHardware

(1990s)

USAuto

lnfrastructure(1910s)

USElectricMotor

(1920s)

USRailroads(1880s)

UKRailroads(1860s)

0%1%2%3%4%5%

1.5%

1.4%

1.6%

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Availabilityofcapitalisunlikelytopreventanotheryearofstrongcapexgrowthin2027.Sincethestartof2025,hyperscalernetdebthasincreasedby$170billion,but

theircollectivenetdebttoEBITDAremainsextremelylowat0.4x.Thehyperscalers

couldincreasetheirnetdebtbyupto$950billionandstillcarryanetleverageratio

below1x,consistentwiththeupperendoftherangeofcompanieswithAAratingsor

better.However,ourcreditstrategistsestimatethenear-termUSDinvestmentgrade(IG)marketcapacityislikelysmallerthanthat,basedonthecurrentcompositionof

single-issuerweightingsandpotentialmarketsaturationconstraints,thoughtheextentofhow“binding”thesewillbeisstillasubjectofinvestordebate.UsingtheUSDIG

index-eligibledebtweightingsofmoneycenterbanksasaguide,

theyestimate

an

incremental$450billionofissuanceforthefourlargesthyperscalersbeforereaching

thesizingoftheindex’scurrentlargestissuers.Asaresult,ourcreditstrategyteam

expectsothersyndicateddebtfinancingmarkets,suchasex-USDcorporatebond

issuanceandnew

JV“projectfinancestyle”structures

toplayalargerroleintheyearsahead.Theyalsoseesignificantscopeforthe

privateinfrastructuremarket

tofillsomeofthefinancingneed.Thehyperscalerscouldalsotapintoexistingcashbalancesorusealternativefinancingsources,suchasequityissuance.

Physicalcapacitycouldlimithyperscalercapexsurprises.Therearenumerous

delayeddatacenterprojectsinthepipelineandmemory,power,andlaborhavebeenfiaggedasconstraintstothecapexbuild-out.WebelievetherecentriseininterestratescouldmakedebtfinancingmoreexpensivebutisunlikelytomeaningfullyderaillargeAIhyperscalercapexspending.TheAIhyperscalersappeartobetakingalong-term

approachtotheircapexspendingplansandthestrongbalancesheetsoflargeAI

hyperscalersmeansthattheircostoffinancingremainshistoricallylowevenafterthebackupinyields.TheincreaseininterestratescouldposemoreofaheadwindtothesmallerAIhyperscalersthatcarrymoreleverage.

10June20268

Exhibit11:HyperscalernetdebttoEBITDAhasrisenbutisclosetozero

AIhyperscalernetleverage

Netdebt

($billions,leftaxis)

Netdebt

toLTMEBITDA

(rightaxis)

$300

$200

$100

$0

-$100

-$200

-$300

2014

2.5x

2.0x

1.5x

1.0x

0.5x

0.0x

-0.5x

-1.0x

-1.5x

-2.0x

-2.5x

2016201820202022202420262028

Source:Compustat,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit12:SizingpotentialIGmarketissuancecapacity

JPM

MS

BAC

ORCL

AMZN

META

GOOGL

MSFT

Marketvalueofindex-eligibledebt($billion)

Indexweight(RHS)

2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.0%

$150

$100

$50

$0

Top3largestissuersHyperscalers

$200

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

UpsidetoAIcapexshoulddrivefurtherupsidetoearningsandsharepricesofAIinfrastructurestocksinthenearterm.MostoftherallyinthebeneficiariesofAI

infrastructurespendingduringthepastfewyearshasbeendrivenbyearnings.

However,rapidpriceappreciation,elevatedvaluations,and

crowdedpositioning

insomeslicesoftheinfrastructurecomplexincreasetheriskofvolatility.TherallyinsomeAIinfrastructurestockshasacceleratedinrecentweeks,outpacingconsensus

earningsestimatesanddeliveringrisk-adjustedreturnsunlikelytobesustained.Oneofthe

mostconsistentsignals

fromsimilarnarrowbreadthmarketsinthepastis

Momentumfactorvolatility.OurTMTTradingDesk

highlighted

theuseofleverageandoptionsinrecentweeks,whichcouldamplifythesereversals,ashasbeenapparentinrecentdays.

10June20269

Exhibit13:RapidpriceappreciationwithlowvolatilityinmanypocketsofAIinfrastructure

300%

250%

200%

150%

100%

50%

0%

MemoryOptical

networking

YTDreturnswithintheAI

infrastructurecomplex

(equal-weightedaverage)

YTDreturnscaled

tovolatility

(rightaxis)

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

Utilities

SemisElectricalgrid

Powerex-Utilities

Liquidcooling

Hyper-scalers

Memory=Micron,Sandisk,SKhynix,Samsung,Opticalnetworking=GSXUOPTI,Semis=GSCBSMHX,Electricalgrid=

GSXUGRID,Powerex-Utilities=GSENEPOWexcludingGICSUtilities,Liquidcooling=GSXUCOOL,Hyperscalers=AMZN,GOOGL,META,MSFT,ORCL,Utilities=GICSUtilitiesinGSENEPOW.

Source:FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

ThevaluationsofmanypocketsoftheAIinfrastructurecomplexhaverecently

expanded.Onadollar-weightedbasis,AIinfrastructurestockvaluationshavenot

expanded.However,theforwardP/EofthemedianstockintheGSTMTDataCenter

baskethasbrokenoutofitsrangeduringthepasttwoyears(

Exhibit14)

.Forthemedianstockyeartodate,returnswithineverysegmentofAIinfrastructurehaveoutpaced

positiveearningsrevisionsexceptthehyperscalersandmemorystocks.

10June202610

Exhibit14:P/EofthemedianAIinfrastructurestockhadbeenrange-bounduntilrecently

35x

ForwardP/Eofmedianstock

inGSAI

30xDataCenterbasket

(GSTMTDAT)

25x

20x

15x

10x

Dec-23Jun-24Dec-24Jun-25Dec-25Jun-26

GSTMTDATdevelopedbyGBM.

Source:FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

200%

150%

100%

50%

0%

(50)%

Exhibit16:SemiconductorsreturnsoutpacedearningsstartinginlateApril

Semiconductors

cumulativechange

Consensus

forward12mEPS

sincethestartof

Price

2025

Dec-24Mar-25Jun-25Sep-25Dec-25Mar-26Jun-26RepresentsconstituentsandweightsoftheSMHETF.

Source:FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit15:YTDchangeinearningsvs.priceamongAIinfrastructurecomplex

YTDreturn

125%

Medianstock

Optical

networking

100%

YTDchangein2-yearaheadEPSvs.price

75%

SemiconductorsElectricalgrid

50%

Memory

Powerex-Utilities

318%/204%

25%

Liquidcooling

Utilities

0%

Hyperscalers

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%

YTDchangein2-yearaheadEPS

Memory=Micron,Sandisk,SKhynix,Samsung,Opticalnetworking=

GSXUOPTI,Semis=GSCBSMHX,Electricalgrid=GSXUGRID,Powerex-Utilities=GSENEPOWexcludingGICSUtilities,Liquidcooling=GSXUCOOL,

Hyperscalers=AMZN,GOOGL,META,MSFT,ORCL,Utilities=GICSUtilitiesinGSENEPOW.

Source:FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit17:Hyperscalerearningshaverecentlyoutpacedsharepricereturns

220

Earnings

IndexedaveragesharepriceandconsensusforwardearningsforAMZN,GOOGL,META,&MSFT

200

Price

180

160

140

120

100

2024202520262027

Source:FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Investorexpectationsthatrecentearningsstrengthwillpersistappearmost

conservativewithinMemoryandthehyperscalers.WecomparethechangeinmarketcapandforwardearningsofvariousAIinfrastructurebasketssince2023asaproxyforhowlongthemarketexpectsthoseearningstopersist.Thatratioismostextreme

amongopticalnetworkingstocks.TheincrementalmarketcapamongSemiconductors,wheremostofthevalueinthechainhasaccruedthusfar,is14xthechangeinforwardearnings.Incontrast,expectationsaremoreconservativeamongthehyperscalers,

whichshouldbelesssensitivetoaneventualtaperingincapexspending.Incremental

10June202611

marketcapvs.earningsislowestwithinMemory,butthereis

ongoingdebate

aboutwhethertheindustrywillreverttoitshistoricallycyclicalproperties.

Exhibit18:Changeinmarketcapvs.earningsacrossAIinfrastructurecomplex

Memory

5

4

12

74

0.8

2,813

647

4

Utilities

11

10

(2)

1710

1.8

246

44

6

Hyperscalers

11

12

(19)

1918

1.0

7,879

699

11

Semiconductors

23

16

27

2720

1.3

11,725

812

14

Liquidcooling

13

12

13

2114

1.5

537

23

23

Powerex-Utilities

17

12

44

2820

1.2

585

24

24

Electricalgrid

17

10

62

2820

1.4

682

25

27

Opticalnetworking

22

10

105

2823

1.1

1,309

32

41

Infrastructurebucket

Changesince2023(bn)Incremental

Market2yfwdmarketcap/

capEBITDAEBITDA

2yfwdEV/EBITDAP/EtoEPSgrowth

5y%premto2yfwd3yfwdEPSPEGCurrentmedian5ymedianP/Egrowthratio

Memory=Micron,Sandisk,SKhynix,Samsung,Opticalnetworking=GSXUOPTI,Semis=GSCBSMHX,Electricalgrid=GSXUGRID,Powerex-Utilities=GSENEPOWexcludingGICSUtilities,Liquidcooling=GSXUCOOL,Hyperscalers=AMZN,GOOGL,META,MSFT,ORCL,Utilities=GICSUtilitiesinGSENEPOW.

Source:FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

WhilewebelievethetrajectoryofAIinfrastructurestocksishigher,boththemicroandthemacroposeriskstothatview.Fromamacroperspective,aresolutionoftheUS-Iranwaristheclearestnear-termcatalyst.Weexpectthiswouldleadtoatactical

broadeningintheequitymarket,especiallyamongoil-sensitiveindustriessuchas

ConsumerDiscretionary.However,ourbaselinemacroforecastsassumethatgrowthwillbeclosetotrendandtheFedwillbeonholdthroughyear-end,ultimatelypavingthe

wayforAItoregainleadership.Weexpectamoresevereeconomicdownturnwouldweighonequitiesbroadly,includingAI-exposedstocks.

Fromamicroperspective,enterpriseadoptionandthepersistenceofbottlenecksrepresenttheclearestrisks.Thewillingnessofthehyperscalerstospendandinvestorstorewardincreasedcapexhasbeenlargelypredicatedonstrongdemandsignals.Thisdynamicwouldchangeifthatdemandweakens,

forinstance

becausetheestimated

productivitygainsdonotjustifythecostoftokens.WeakeningdemandwouldthreatentheentireAIcomplex,butespeciallycompaniesintheinfrastructurelayer,wheremostofthevaluehasaccruedthusfar.AIinfrastructurestockswithstrongpricingpowerduetobottlenecks,suchasmemoryorpower,arealsoatriskofeasingbottlenecksor

improvingefficiency.

StrengtheningevidenceofAImonetizationshouldsupporttheAIhyperscalers,butequityissuanceposesarisk.Earlierthisyear,welaidthreeoutcatalyststhatwould

helphyperscalersregainmarketleadership:(1)AnaccelerationinAI-relatedrevenues;

(2)Deceleratingcapexgrowth;(3)Ashiftinthemacroeconomicbackdropfrom

acceleratinggrowthtodeceleratinggrowth.Whilecapexgrowthhasnotslowedyet,Q1earningsseason

showed

furtherreaccelerationincloudrevenuesandsizablebacklogs.Inaddition,theprofitabilityofthosecloudworkloadsfarexceededconsensus

expectations.However,growinginterestinequityissuanceamongthegroupsuggestsinvestorswillremainfocusedonreturnoninvestment,giventhedilutiveimpactand

limitedsignsofadecelerationincapexgrowth.Fromamacroperspective,bothour

economistsandinvestorshaveloweredtheirgrowthexpectationsfollowingtheUS-Iran

10June202612

war,whichhasweakenedthecaseforabroadeningwithintheequitymarket.

Exhibit19:Cloudbusinessrevenuesandmargins

Cloudbusiness

Q12026

RevenuesOperating

LTMGrowth(year/year)profit

$billionQ12025Q12026margin

MicrosoftAzure9733%40%NA

AmazonWebServices

137

17

28

38%

GoogleCloud

66

28

63

33

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit20:Cloudcompanies’revenueexpectationshavebeenimproving

12%

Rolling3-monthchangein

10%consensusforwardrevenueestimates

forAMZN,GOOGL,andMSFT

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

Jun-23Jun-24Jun-25Jun-26

Source:FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

ProgressonAIapplicationroll-outhasbenefitedahandfulofsoftwarecompaniesbutalsoincreasedperceiveddisruptionriskfromAI.Formuchofthepastfew

months,investorsappearedtobelievethatprivateAIcompanieswouldbemore

e仟ectivethanpubliccompaniesincapturingAI-relatedrevenues.Agroupofpublic

softwarecompaniessawvaluationscontractfrom36xinlate2025to21xinMarch.Incontrast,thelargestprivatefrontierAIlabshaveannouncedsharpincreasesin

annualizedrevenuerunratesand,inturn,privatemarketvaluations.However,softwarestockshavereboundedinrecentweeksandtheirP/Ecurrentlystandsat25x.

WecontinuetoexpectAIdisruptionuncertaintywillpersistanddrivewidereturndispersion.ThethreatofdisruptionwilllikelyrepresentapersistentoverhanguntilthelaterstagesofAIadoption,whichcouldtakeyears.Aswe

previouslydiscussed

,this

phaseoftheAItechnologycycleislikelytoleadto“winners”and“losers”,incontrastwiththeinfrastructurephase.

10June202613

Exhibit21:Publicsoftwarecompaniesremainwellbelowtheirvaluationsfromlate2025

Software=IGV

SoftwareforwardP/E

Absolute

Pre