银行业深度研究报告：从资负结构看银行经营思路变化

o银行业经营景气度边际修复。42家上市银行2025年报及1Q26业绩显示，银行业经营景气度已出现边际修复：营收与利润增速回升，净息差单季环比改善，财富管理业务发展向好，资产质量总体稳定，行业正逐步走出此前“息差单边下行+盈利持续承压”的阶段。o相比短期业绩修复，更值得关注的是银行经营范式正在发生深层变化。过去十余年，中国银行业主要依赖信用扩张驱动增长，“规模优先”是行业核心经营逻辑。但当前银行经营环境已明显改变：净息差降至历史低位、有效融资需求不足、地产信用周期切换、资本监管趋严，同时资本补充难度边际提升，意味着单纯依赖高增速扩表已难以有效提升股东回报，反而会加速资本消耗。在此背景下，银行业经营思路正从“以量补价”逐步转向“稳量保价”。o从资负结构看银行经营思路变化。从近三年上市银行的资产负债结构变迁中，可以清晰看到：银行正从过去追求“规模”与“效益”的二元优先，全面转向“质量、效益与规模”的动态均衡。1）资产端，银行整体信贷增速趋缓，为稳息差更倾向于配置相对高收益资产，在零售信贷需求较弱且风险上升的情况下，对公贷款成为主要投放方向；2）负债端，存款增长放缓，高息长期存款占比下降，同业负债占比提升，本质上反映的是居民财富配置从“存款化”向“资管化”迁移后的银行体系内部循环。资负结构调整带来的结果，是行业单季净息差企稳回升、利润增速修复以及资产质量保持平稳，但仍面临资本消耗压力。银行经营目标也因此逐步从“规模增长”转向“资本回报”，ROE稳定性的重要性显o展望未来，行业分化预计将进一步加剧。在宏观经济呈现积极信号的背景下，中国银行业通过资产负债重塑与业务模式转型，已初步跨越周期底部，业绩呈现筑底企稳态势。净息差逐步探明底部与以财富管理为核心的中间业务收入崛起，共同构成了盈利修复的“双支柱”。但复苏是结构性的，未来业绩能否实现持续、健康的回升将更加依赖各银行在客户深度经营、资产差异化定价、风险有效管控以及轻资本业务突破等方面的真实能力，行业内部的分化将愈发显o投资建议：中长期资金入市和公募基金改革的核心逻辑未变，重视银行板块配置机会，银行欠配幅度仍然较大。预计2026年仍是银行板块估值系统性回升的一年：从防御到攻守兼备，基本面回暖和资金驱动共同发力。1）高股息、低估值的特性依然是银行股的底色，特别是在无风险利率下行的背景下，银行股的类债属性将持续吸引稳健资金。2）随着息差企稳、区域信贷需求回升和非息收入增长，部分优质银行将展现出较强的业绩弹性，估值有望从PB逻辑向PE逻辑切换。我们建议2026年重点关注以下三条投资主线：主线一：国家信用与红利基石，以国有大行+招行为代表。主线二：息差率先回暖、财富管理业务弹性较大、信用成本走低带动ROE企稳的优质股份行和城商行，这背后映射的是成本优势和风控优势。建议关注：招商银行、中信银行、平安银行、宁波银行、江苏银行、南京银行。主线三：持续受益区域政策、业绩弹性较大的城农商行。建议关注：成都银行、重庆银行、杭州银行、青岛银行、渝农商行o风险提示：经济下行压力加大、零售风险暴露超预期、信贷投放不及预期。考虑到假设差异，测算结果或与实际有一定偏差，仅供参考。行业基本数据相对指数表现2025-05-13~2026-05-1328%17%7%-4%25/0525/0725/10银行26/0525/1226/0325/0525/0725/10银行26/05我们认为，一季度银行业经营景气度边际修复，不过相比短期业绩修复，更值得关注的是银行经营范式正在发生深层变化，从“规模优先”逐渐转向“效益优先”，从“以量补价”逐步转向“稳量保价”。在对业绩进行总结归因后，我们尝试从银行资负结构变化的角度对其经营思路进行细拆，以发现其经营范式变化的内外部原因。业绩呈现筑底企稳态势，银行稳定分红、低估低持仓为投资银行股提供了充足的安全垫。从1Q26银行的经营情况来看，行业经营景气度明显回升，净息差企稳与中间业务崛起，共同构成了盈利修复的“双支柱”，预计后续银行利润增长仍会保持稳健。从银行历史分红情况看，国股行历史分红水平长期维持在30%以上，且部分银行在2025年继续提升分红率。考虑当前整体行业资产质量整体保持稳定，处在历史较为优质的水平，给未来银行业绩增长提供了充足安全垫。从估值的角度，当前银行板块整体PB为0.51X，处过去十年以来22.35%的分位数水平，仍然低估；从基金持仓的角度，1Q26银行股基金持仓占比不到2%，仓位仍然较低；从股息率的角度，银行板块股息率仍有5.1%，在31个板块中排名第二，个股股息率多数在5%以上，具备长期配投资建议：中长期资金入市和公募基金改革的核心逻辑未变，重视银行板块配置机会，银行欠配幅度仍然较大。预计2026年仍是银行板块估值系统性回升的一年：从防御到攻守兼备，基本面回暖和资金驱动共同发力。1）高股息、低估值的特性依然是银行股的底色，特别是在无风险利率下行的背景下，银行股的类债属性将持续吸引稳健资金。2）随着息差企稳、区域信贷需求回升和非息收入增长，部分优质银行将展现出较强的业绩弹性，估值有望从PB逻辑向PE逻辑切换。我们建议2026年重点关注以下三条投资主线：主线一：国家信用与红利基石，以国有大行+招行为代表。主线二：息差率先回暖、财富管理业务弹性较大、信用成本走低带动ROE企稳的优质股份行和城商行，这背后映射的是成本优势和风控优势。建议关注：招商银行、中信银行、平安银行、宁波银行、江苏银行、南京银行。主线三：持续受益区域政策、业绩弹性较大的城农商行。建议关注：成都银行、重庆银行、杭州银行、青岛银行、渝农商行。3 5（一）营收、业绩增速均有所回升 5（二）业绩归因：量缓增、价企稳，拨备对业绩负贡献 6 8 9（一）资产端：规模增速放缓，“以量补价”转向“稳量保价” 9（二）负债端：存款占比下行，同业负债占比上升 （一）净息差：企稳回升 （二）资产质量：对公加大投放稀释零售风险，不良指标保持平稳 21 4 5 6 7 7 8 9 20 21 22 5报，我们认为，一季度银行业经营景气度边际修复，不过相比短期业绩修复，更值得关角度对其经营思路进行细拆，以发现其经营范式变化的内外部原因。1.4%/7.6%，1Q26营收增速超预期，主要02446920244692营业收入净利息收入中收其他非息收入归母净利润YoYYoYYoYYoYYoY1-3Q2520251Q26边际变化1-3Q2520251Q26边际变化1-3Q2520251Q26边际变化1-3Q2520251Q26边际变化1-3Q2520251Q26边际变化工商银行建设银行农业银行中国银行交通银行邮储银行2.2%2.0%8.3% 0.8%1.5%11.1%2.0%2.1%10.5%2.7%4.5%8.4%1.8%2.0%4.9%1.8%2.0%7.6%6.3%8.4%4.0%2.9%5.6%7.911.7.911.9.59.6-0.7%-0.4%-3.0%-2.9%-2.4%-1.9%-3.0%-1.8%7.5%8.1%7.6%7.8%%%%%0.6%5.3%13.3%8.1%0.6%5.3%13.3%8.1%0.2%11.5%1.6%5.1%16.6%7.4%3.4%16.1%5.2%6.7%7.9%5.6%-3.0%16.8%3.6%1.6%-8.7%-1.8%-6.5%0.7% 27.6%22.6%22.3%-0.4%3.3%3.5%2.2%3.3%3.5%2.2%0.7%1.0%0.3%0.6%3.0%4.5%4.2%3.0%4.5%4.2%1.1%1.1%3.1%1.9%1.9%3.1%1.9%1.0%1.1%1.0%1.1%2.6%2.5%1.3%2.0%0.9%0.8% 31.0%40.9%66.7%25.8% 31.7%24.6%37.4%12.8%22.2%29.5%12.9%-16.6%4.1%1.4%4.3%2.9% 27.5%19.7%0.2%-19.5%5.38.91.5%1.9%7.2%5.38.9 -2.1%-1.6%7.3%招商银行中信银行浦发银行民生银行兴业银行光大银行华夏银行平安银行浙商银行-0.5%0.0%3.8%-3.5%-0.5%5.6%3.8%6.1%-0.5%-2.1%-1.3%2.9%3.3.7.-2.8.12.3.3.7.-2.8.12. -2.1%-1.5%1.7%3.9%5.0%12.4%2.4%1.5%2.8% -0.6%0.4%-2.1% -5.1%-4.7%4.1% -1.6%1.4%13.7% %%%% %%%% %2% %0.9%5.7%-1.4%0.7%3.8%2.2%8.3%-0.1%4.4%0.9%5.7%-1.4%0.7%3.8%2.2%8.3%-0.1%4.4%5.4%-0.4%0.4%7.4%6.2%2.4%-0.9%4.9%7.0%-5.5%5.9%7.4%-9.2%2.5%11.7%8.0% -22.4%-16.4%-15.4%1.6%-5.1%5.5%0.0%0.0%12.6%24.4%10.0%23.9%-11.4%-13.7%-3.8%10.0%23.9%-17.0%-1.8%22.1% 0.5%1.2%1.5%3.0%3.0%3.0%0.3%0.0%-9.0%-4.3%-0.2%-1.2%0.2% 7.2%15.6%1.9%1.9%1.4%6.7%4.8%6.7%4.8%2.7%-1.8%0.2%-1.1%-7.9%-6.7%-3.9%-8.8%-5.4%35.3%-9.8%-10.4%4.7%-6.8%-7.6%0.5%1.5%-9.6%0.2%-8.1%-1.5%10.2%1.5%-9.6%0.2%-8.1%-1.5%-6.4%-5.4%0.1%0.3%-3.6%-6.9%-2.9%-1.7%0.2%-2.6%-34.5%433.2%34.8%0.2%-2.6%-34.5%433.2%34.8%3.6%-26.0%2.2%-5.4%454.3%67.8%24.1%-9.3%-4.8%-32.5%-29.1%-29.6%-21.1%-24.1%-33.0%-11.8%-20.6%40.7%40.7% .0%1%-8.2%-5.8%-3.1%-8.2%-5.8%-3.1%-3.2%-1.5%-1.3%2.70.22.70.2% -3.5%-4.2%3.0%8.-9.6%-14.8%0.7%北京银行南京银行宁波银行江苏银行贵阳银行杭州银行上海银行成都银行长沙银行青岛银行郑州银行西安银行苏州银行厦门银行齐鲁银行重庆银行兰州银行-0.3%8.8%8.3%-0.3%8.8%8.3%7.8%-13.7%10.5%13.5%8.0%10.2%8.8%8.4%-12.9%14.6%1%1.8%1.9%9.6%7.7 28.5%31.1%39.4%8.4 11.8%10.8%14.4%3.7 19.6%20.7%7.3%-13. -12.3%-8.3%12.6%20. 10.0%12.8%20.7%7.9 0.5%2.6%5.1%2.4 8.2%8.4%17.3%8.9 -2.9%-6.1%2.2%8.3 12.0%12.1%14.0%1.9 5.8%4.8%0.0%-4.9% 61.6%59.7% 8.9%9.5%21.7%12.% %% %%4%-8.6%-23.0%-1.0%-8.6%-23.0%-1.0%22.0%12.6%13.1%-11.2%-24.3%-6.9%-6.4%-17.0%-10.6% -35.2%-29.6%-12.0%17.6%8.5%65.2%-14.6%-79.8%29.3%30.7%81.7%51.0%20.0%28.0%23.8%-4.2%9.3%-1.2%-1.6%-0.3%-3.5%-3.8%49.1%52.9%-7.1%-13.9%18.3%32.3%0.6%0.3%13.1%12.7%0.5%0.6%-19.0%-19.6%16.0%7.1%4.5%-2.6%-1.4%-5.2%0.0%5.2%62.2%3.5%-17.4%34.5%62.2%3.5%-17.4%34.5%53.2%-16.2%-22.3%-18.8%-9.0%-9.0%-26.4%-24.1%-27.7%6.7%-20.7%-26.9%26.3%2.2%-22.2%5.6%27.8%27.8%3.1%2.2%3.1%2.2%-0.4%8.1%8.4%8.1%8.1%8.1%8.4%8.1%8.1%10.3%0.0%2.2%-0.1%0.7%-2.0%-2.0%1.5%2.2%-0.5% 4.3%2.6%2.7% 5.9%-0.6%-0.1%-3.6% -1.4%1.7%2.4%27.5%9%9%1.4%4.0%1.4%4.0%1.1%4.3%3.4%4.3%3.0%2.7%6.5%1.3%-1.8%5.6% 5.0%8.0%7.3%3.9%0.3%1.3%3.2%0.9%3.8%7.4%-0.7%1.0%%% % %% % %%9% %14.7%7.1%8.4%1.4% -13.0%-18.7%-48.4%-29.7%2.8%2.7%0.7% 5.0%3.3%4.8% 6.0%3.6%5.8% 15.5%21.7%21.2% 1.6%1.0%5.4%16.8%20.4%26.2%5.8% -15.5%-3.0%-30.3%-27.3% -4.0%-19.1%4.0%23.1% 19.9% . 19.9% .23.3%23.3%-18.1%-65.7%103.7%169.4%-14.6%-19.3%-1.2%18.1%-3.2%-8.5%43.7%52.2%3.6%5.5%3.6%5.5%1.5%14.6%10.5%-1.2%6.2%8.2%7.4%14.0%10.4%-4.8%5.5%7.1%0.3%15.1%10.2%0.6%2.0%3.0%2.0%3.0%1.1%1.1%10.9%1.7%25.1%3.6%4.7%23.6%18.4.6%5.1%13.0%10.4%10.5%11.6%-2.1%-0.7%-0.2%7.9%1.1%0.5%0.4-9.6%17.3%16.5%0.4-9.6%17.3%16.5%16.9%15.2%22.4%12.8% % %37.6%58.0%-6.1%-38.1%-35.6%37.6%58.0%-6.1%5.8%-21.4%36.6%-15.9%-18.9%-25.0%-27.6%-32.7%-31.4%1.2%2.2%4.3%6.4%-11.1%-4.2%-17.1%-12.9%江阴银行无锡银行常熟银行苏农银行张家港行青农商行紫金银行瑞丰银行渝农银行沪农银行6.2%4.1%8.2%6.2%3.9%2.0%2.6%3.9% 8.2%6.5%6.7%4.1%0.6%0.2%0.3%-5.2%0.4%-4.2%7.0%4.1%1.2%1.5%2.4%3.17.63.31.2%1.5%2.4%3.17.63.3 0.2%7.8%2.5%5.8%% % %%3.6%7.0% -19.2%-17.7%3.6%7.0%-4.6%-4.0% 364.7%332.1%41.0%21.4%11.0%-291.1%-291.1%21.9%11.4%13.8%2.4%11.5%8.0%-9.6%-17.6%20.0%12.2%6.3%-5.9%7.1%6.4%-11.4%-17.8%20.1%23.7%-14.7%-38.4% -23.0%-38.9%-41.7%-2.7% 13.4%0.6%2.5%3.8%2.5%2.7%10.6%10.6%5.1%5.3%12.8%5.0%5.8%11.1%5.1%2.5%3.6%9.5%5.6%1.9%0.2%0.5%0.0%-2.8%-3.9% 0.1%0.9%1.2%1.2%0.8%-4.4% -4.9%-9.1%-8.7%10.11.6.3 -3.8%-2.8%10.11.6.3 -8.4%-10.2%0.8%2.1%2.0%8.3%8% 8% 0%%21.3%66.0%11.8% 76.6%235.3%23.3%-2.5%4.1%-7.2%212.0%-11.4%-1.5%· -5.4%-7.7%2.2%10.4.210.4.27.2-5.4%12.6%15.1%-17.3%-15.4%8.3%7.9%6.1%6.9% 57.5%19.4%17.0%-2.4%25.0%%% %%% % 162.7%207.4%29.4% -16.7%-19.7%4.3%-1.2%-2.0%16.9% 5.8%2.3%-0.5%-2.8%-0.3%0.5%1.0%0.5%-3.7%24.0%19.0%-23.2%-6.6%-16.4%-22.9%-46.2%-23.2%-6.6% 0.7%1.4%8.4% -3.2%-2.9%1.2% -5.1%-3.9%2.3%6.23.9%1.3%-10.9%-12.3%0.8%0.2%0.7%上市银行国有行股份行城商行农商行 0.9%1.4%7.6%1.9%2.3%9.0% -2.6%-1.7%3.7% 4.8%4.2%9.7% 0.0%-0.6%2.6%6.2%6.7%5.4%5.5%3.2%7.29.17.29.10.0%-1.5%-0.6%-2.0%7.2%7.7%4.6%5.9%1.3%8.8%4.6%5.9%1.3%8.8%3.9%6.1%7.2%3.1%13.4%4.2%5.8%6.3%3.8%8.8%10.2%-0.3%-0.9%0.7%-4.5%6.0%5.4%4.4%11.8%7.4%23.9%24.2%22.4%-1.8% -12.1%-11.7%4.4%16.1% -11.7%-17.6%-3.3%14.3% -1.6%-7.7%-16.6%-8.8%3.0%3.6%3.0%3.6%1.4%1.7%1.5%1.2%1.6%2.0%-0.2%0.8%%3.526 3.526 % %-0.1%-0.1%3.4%-0.2%6.9%-0.3%7.4%3.6%3.0%3.8% 0.1%0.9%7.7%6.86比收敛0.4pct至9.1%；拨备成为主要拖累，或主要是由于城农商行长期限定期存款占比较高，负债端压降高息存款成本对净息差的债市调整中，为弥补公允价值变动损益浮亏的问题，城农商行普遍加大力度兑现存量债------------------------------1Q26工商银行净息差变动贡献净息差变动贡献生息资产增速收入增速中收贡献其他非息贡献中收贡献其他非息贡献PPOP增速管理费PPOP增速归母净利润增速归母净利润增速所得税贡献值损失贡献7.8%-0.3%7.5%-0.4%1.2%8.3%1.1%9.3%-7.-7.0%1.0%3.3%建设银行农业银行中国银行交通银行邮储银行9%-1.7%.2%.7%.2%.6%.5%.9%7.6%7.8%7.2%7.3%-0.30.0-0.4-2.21.2%%%%%3.3%2.9%1.1%0.1%0.9%11.1%10.5%8.4%4.9%7.6%2.4%.6%.4%.6%13.1%-7.5-7.5-11.8%-5.1-1.2-18.0%%-2.5%2%2%3.5%4.5%4.2%13.8%-6-623.%%%%0.. 94%-16. 94%-110.2%-2-1.4%7.1%5.0%9.9%19.4%5%5%3.1%1.9%11.8%招商银行中信银行浦发银行民生银行兴业银行光大银行华夏银行平安银行浙商银行 77% 77%-27.0%-2-25-0.1%2.8%.4%.8%.4%1.7%-3.40.0%1.0%%%0.0%1.0%%%2-%-0.5%1.4%0.5%1.4%-2.7-1.13.3%0.9%1.2%2.9%7.6%0.6%0.4%5.3%3.8%5.6%1.4%2.7%-1.1%-3.9%35.3%4.7%0.5%4.3%6.4%4.3%6.4%0.8%-4.00.-0. 0.-0. -6.%%-3.3-3.3-3.3-3.33.7%-15.4%0.0%-0.0.0.0.-1.%%2%5%2%1%3%6%4%3%0%1%1.5%3.0%1.5%-9.6%0.2%-8.1%-1.5%3.0%0.7%.5%12.4%.9%2.8%.0%-2.1%.4%4.1%2.7%4.1%3.6%6.4%0.8%-0.3%20%-112.9%48.2%4.4%1.5%4.4%1.5%1.0%5.8%-0.2%4.-8-780%5.-8-74.9%6.6%.7.7%.0%.9%-3.1%-1.3%2.8%-50.04.4%0.9%-1.30.3北京银行南京银行宁波银行江苏银行贵阳银行杭州银行上海银行成都银行长沙银行青岛银行郑州银行西安银行苏州银行厦门银行齐鲁银行重庆银行兰州银行江阴银行无锡银行常熟银行苏农银行张家港行青农商行紫金银行瑞丰银行渝农商行沪农商行 11.4%-1 16.3%2 14.1%0.8%9.6%39.4% 3.2%.8%9.6%39.4% 3.2%.4%7.3%.4%7.3%0.0%0.9%.5%7.3%12.6%20.7%5.1%-0.8%%-16-%-10%-%%-10% %-10% %-11%%%%%%%%% % %%%-145.7%.0%.9%0.4%2.3%.7%1.8%.1%3.9%.7%0.7%5.6%3.0%3.2%1.5%1.6%5.5%3.0%14.4%13.5%10.2%8.4%14.6%4.3%4.3%6.5%5.6%7.3%1.3%41.5%10.9%25.1%13.0%11.6%-0.2%8.2%23.5%9.1%23.5%9.1%4.9%4.9%5.1%0.3%4.7%2.1%0.3%0.3%0.5%15.3%8.7%19.3%6.4%4.6%6.8%6.1%-16.3%-16.3%-9.4-3.86.6%-13.7%5.7%0.2%2.5%-46.5%-8.7-27.0%2.0%-7.2-15.0%-4.4-1.11.0%5.6%0.9%-2.528.825.8%%%%%6.9%6.9%-1.-1.-1.6%0%2%1%3%1%1%5%3%2%9%9%2%9%9%5.6%8.0%10.3%8.2%2.4%10.1%0.7%4.8%5.8%21.2%5.4%6.2%8.2%7.4%14.0%6.71.5-0.324.6%ll-1-7.2.6%1-39.8%1.6%1-5.73-2.710.4%6.9%.9%17.3%-0.7-0.45.00.7-0.8-7.8-1.7-1.70. 86%-631-1. 86%-631-1-3 17.6%-3 10.7%5.8%.4%.6%0.8%.4%.6%0.8% .0%14.0%0.0%36.8%.5%.5%-72.3%9.6%4.5%5.8%12.0%53.5%5.8%16.7%%-17.-2-0.%0.%1.%%%%%8.0.0.18.3%10310 13.2% .4% .4%.6%.6%.8%.4%.4%.7%.1%.7%16.9%12.8%6.4%5.2%7.8%5.8%8.0%0.8%7.5%0.9%7.5%0.9%1.1%2.1%0.8%1.1%2.9%13.9%12.7%1.9%9.0%3.7%9.6% 17.5%-2.4-2.9-1.1-0.10.01.00.11.1-2.43.10.4-0.91.618.4%-5-2-5-2-2-1-1-0-689%8% 9%8% 3%1%1%5%3%6%8%8%4%9%10.4%-4.8%2.5%2.7%11.1%5.1%2.5%5.6%1.6%-0.5%5.1%0.7% 9.2%7.6% 9.3%7.5%8.0%7.5%-0.7%5.2%0.1%6.9%6.4%.5%4.5%6.6%5.8%2.7%2.6%6.7%1.2%-4.4%-8.7%2.2%-3.7%8.4%1.2%1.5%5.51.5%5.5%-3.7%1.0%-12.4%-30.%8.3%%5..1%21%.1%2.5%5.3%-30.5%.5%0.5%.5%12.6%3.5%5.7%6.7%4.8%-0.86.7%4.8%-0.8-3.1%%-10. 10%-1-%--%l-.8%-1.8%-3966%.1%2.3%4.4%12.8%3.3%4.6%-6.5-0.上市银行国有行股份行城商行农商行9.1%-1.9%.3%.9%.3%.4%.4%.9%7.7%3.5%13.8%7.7%-0.3-0.30.1-0.50.2%%%%%0.7%1.6%0.1%3.5%5.3%7.6%9.0%3.7%9.7%2.6%2.2%9.8%2.3%11.4%1.7%5.4%-6.5-8.1-4.8-2.82.3%%%%%%0.-0.-24%3%8%8%5%3.0%3.6%-0.3%7.4%3.8%9.9%-2%-1%0%0413.43.3%13.0%6.82.5%5.0%%-3.731700132245636317001322456362025工商银行生息资产净息差变净利息收增速动贡献入增速营业收入增速中收贡献其他非息营业收入增速中收贡献管理费贡PPOP增献速资产减值所得税贡损失贡献献-1.4%8.6%归母净利润增速9 -9.9%-0.4%0.3%2.0%0.0%2.0%0.7%建设银行农业银行中国银行交通银行邮储银行 4.6%- .4%.6%.4%.6%.2%2.7%.8%-1.9%-1.8%1.9%-1.6%2.10.3%-0.2%%%%%%%%%2.1%4.5%2.0%2.0%-1-1.9%%1.7%%0.1%%%%%1.6%6.6%-2-1-2-2-1-2.0%.8%1.0%3.2%2.2%2.2%1.1%4.6-0中信银行6.2%-7-0浦发银行5.8%浦发银行0.0%民生银行0.0%兴业银行5.7%-5光大银行3.3%-8华夏银行8.5%-7平安银行2.9%-8浙商银行2.8%-4.5%.7%.5%.7%.7%.4%.3%.0%.0%.7%.4%-1.5%5.0%1.5%0.4%-4.7%1.4%-5.8%-1.5%0.6-0.9-0.20.1% %%%-2.6% %%%-0.2-2.23.5%-1.2%%-0.5%%4.8%%-6.7%%-5.4%%-10.4%%-7.6%0.7%3.9%0.0%0.7%3.9%0.0%0.3%-0.5-25%%%%%%%% 0.2% %1.2%%8.7%0.2%-6.4%-7.9%-11.9%-11.5%-1-1.5%.8%.0%.4%.3%-1-1-2-3-2-3 .0%1.2% .0%3.0%.2%10.5%.0%-5.4%.9%0.3%.4%-6.9% .0%-1.7% .3%-4.2%.6%-14.8%%%%-3.8%%%-6.9-5.6-4.7 北京银行南京银行宁波银行江苏银行贵阳银行杭州银行上海银行成都银行长沙银行青岛银行郑州银行西安银行苏州银行厦门银行齐鲁银行重庆银行兰州银行江阴银行无锡银行常熟银行苏农银行张家港行青农商行紫金银行瑞丰银行渝农商行沪农商行上市银行国有行股份行城商行农商行17.5%17.5% 5.7%4.3%5.7%4.3%31.1%0.30.50.33.00.5-0.40.0-1.0 -2.1-0.8-51%.-51%.236-4.5 %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% %%%%%10.5%8.0%8.8%-12.9%1.1%3.4%2.7%-1.8%8.0%0.3%21.7%1.1%1.7%5.1%10.5%-0.7%4.1%2.0%6.5%0.9%0.8%-9.1%-7.7%0.5%1.4%1.4%-2.6-2.6% -5.3% 13.5%13.0%%%%%%-17.5%0.1%%%%% 3.3% %-0.8%%14.6%%2.4%%27.4% 3.8% %2.5%%%4.0%%%10.7%%%-1.0%%%%%%2.2%-2 .9%-22.2% .4%8.1%1--5.4%3.3%3.4%5.4%3.3%3.4%.9%.2%3.4%6.8%6.4%5.6% 6.6%20.7%-8.3%12.8%2.6%8.4%-6.1%12.1%4.8%59.7%3.9%6.5%3.9%6.5%.0%.3%4.3%7.6%9.0%7.1%0.7%3.8%.5%2.9%0.8%1.8%1.8%4.7%16.5%22.4%4.3%2.1%0.2%2.5%-2.8%-10.2%2.0%-15.4%8.3%7.9%7.9%-1.3%.3%8.1%8.3%23.9%%4.0%-12.4%4.0%-4.2%-11.8%-4.3%-2.0%-3.7%-34.5%-3.2.94.8%.51%. . . % %2.72.1 .9%.9%.0%.0%.2%.3%.3%.6%.3% .6%12.1%2.7%3.3%3.6%21.7%1.0%3.6%5.5%1.5%14.6% - 10.6% --10.6% --% -3.5-20.23838 8.6%-%%%%%-%%%%%-4.72.7.0%.1%.8%.1%-1-1-4.4 .9%.0%.2% .9%.0%.2% .3%.0%.3%.5%.6%.1%.6%.6%-1.2%0.6%2.5%10.6%5.1%5.3%9.5%-23.3%2.3%5.3%5.3%-0.3-0.23.02.10.23.42.5 9.7% -8-8 21-421-4-4.0%.3%.2% 9.6%3.7%-1 %2.58.8-11.34.3-10.3% %2.58.8-11.34.3-10.3% %%-4.%%-4.6%%%%%%%%%%1.0%1.7%-17.1%-10.0%-1.9%%1.9%%%1.9%% 9.6% 9.6%-17-17----1-1 -1-1 99.5%1.9%9.5%1.9%5.0%3.5%6.5%-1.5%0.0%11.1%0.9%0.90.60.20.2%0.52.6%%% %%0.52.6%%% %-2.3-7.1-1.7%2.3%%-1.7%%4.2%%-0.6%-0.-0.-0.-0.%%%%%1.7%-2.0%%4.6%%%-1.2%%2.7%.8%.7%.8%.2% .7%.3%1.7%-0.1%3.4%3.0%10104%5.0%14.689.5%8.9%8.4%8.7%9.4%6.8%4.9%9.2%7.0%8.3%9.2%9.5%8.9%8.4%8.7%9.4%6.8%4.9%9.2%7.0%8.3%9.2%6.8%6.1%8.0%9.7%3.2%7.7%9.1%9.5%5.4%7.9%6.2%9.2%9.7%9.6%9.3%8.3%9.9%9.9%9.5%9.1%9.8%9.8%6.3%5.2%9.9%7.9%8.8%8.5%8.7%8.4%3.2%8.0%9.4%9.3%5.7%7.6%8.4%9.3%9.9%9.0%8.8%9.9%8.5%9.1%9.7%9.3%8.1%8.0%6.3%9.1%9.4%8.5%9.2%7.0%7.4%9.6%8.4%8.5%9.4%工商银行建设银行农业银行中国银行交通银行邮储银行招商银行中信银行浦发银行民生银行兴业银行光大银行华夏银行平安银行浙商银行北京银行南京银行宁波银行江苏银行贵阳银行杭州银行上海银行成都银行长沙银行青岛银行郑州银行西安银行苏州银行厦门银行齐鲁银行重庆银行兰州银行江阴银行无锡银行常熟银行苏农银行张家港行青农商行紫金银行瑞丰银行渝农商行沪农商行上市银行国有行股份行城商行农商行0.78%0.85%0.68%0.75%0.65%0.53%0.75%0.50%0.42%0.75%0.61%0.65%0.78%0.49%0.65%0.83%0.93%0.91%0.76%0.86%0.75%0.73%0.68%0.29%0.56%0.81%0.68%0.76%0.68%0.41%0.92%0.93%0.88%0.59%0.63%0.93%0.80%0.88%0.75%0.71%0.69%0.75%0.88%0.64%0.75%0.61%0.63%0.66%0.54%0.80%0.71%0.59%0.85%0.64%0.43%0.97%0.69%0.66%0.85%0.88%0.83%0.79%0.76%0.88%0.72%0.76%0.57%0.56%0.85%0.63%0.76%0.71%0.41%0.65%0.89%0.79%0.99%0.99%0.59%0.69%0.94%0.91%0.76%0.64%0.76%0.77%0.86%-0.2%-0.6%-0.2%-0.6%-1.3%-1.6%-0.7%-0.3%-0.9%-1.1%-0.7%-1.1%-0.4%0.1%-0.3%0.3%-0.9%0.2%-0.1%-0.2%-1.8%-0.5%-0.8%-0.2%1.4%0.3%0.0%-0.1%0.3%-0.9%0.8%0.4%-0.2%-0.4%0.1%0.1%-0.3%0.1%-0.1%-0.5%-0.1%-0.4%-0.3%-0.8%-0.6%-0.1%-0.1%-0.03%-0.05%-0.05%-0.03%-0.02%-0.04%-0.07%-0.01%-0.04%-0.07%-0.05%-0.06%-0.04%0.00%-0.04%-0.05%-0.06%-0.03%-0.13%-0.02%-0.01%-0.02%-0.05%-0.02%0.02%-0.02%-0.01%-0.06%-0.01%-0.01%-0.05%-0.06%-0.04%-0.06%0.02%-0.02%-0.04%0.05%-0.03%-0.07%-0.04%-0.05%-0.04%-0.04%-0.04%-0.03%-0.03%0.68%0.80%0.66%0.66%0.68%0.58%0.82%0.75%0.66%0.91%0.71%0.47%0.98%0.72%0.71%0.92%0.91%0.96%0.81%0.77%0.93%0.74%0.74%0.59%0.57%0.91%0.65%0.78%0.76%0.47%0.69%0.95%0.81%0.94%0.61%0.76%0.98%0.96%0.79%0.68%0.80%0.80%0.89%9.1%9.1%9.2%9.1%6.7%9.3%20.6%9.1%8.5%8.9%6.6%7.6%9.6%8.4%9.0%-0.4%-0.7%-0.3%-0.6%-0.7%-1.2%-1.1%-0.4%0.5%-0.3%-0.7%-0.9%-0.5%-0.9%-1.7%-2.5%-0.9%-0.5%-0.4%-0.4%-1.4%-0.3%-2.4%-0.6%1.2%0.0%-0.2%-1.0%-0.3%-0.4%0.2%-0.3%-0.8%-0.6%-0.1%-0.8%-0.7%0.3%-2.3%-0.6%-0.1%-0.6%-0.6%-0.6%-0.7%-0.6%-0.6%0.72%0.79%0.63%0.70%0.63%0.49%0.73%0.52%0.39%0.72%0.55%0.61%0.73%0.40%0.44%0.79%0.87%0.82%0.74%0.85%0.74%0.68%0.71%0.27%0.52%0.75%0.64%0.76%0.65%0.38%0.96%0.86%0.92%0.89%0.63%0.44%0.86%0.78%0.82%0.71%0.66%0.65%0.70%0.83%-0.06%-0.06%-0.05%-0.05%-0.02%-0.04%-0.09%-0.02%0.02%-0.03%-0.03%-0.06%-0.04%-0.05%-0.09%-0.21%-0.05%-0.06%-0.09%-0.03%-0.01%-0.01%-0.09%-0.05%0.03%-0.02%-0.04%-0.06%-0.04%0.00%-0.04%-0.04%-0.08%-0.06%0.00%-0.02%0.01%0.04%-0.18%-0.07%-0.02%-0.05%-0.04%-0.05%-0.04%-0.05%-0.04%9增速小幅回落，反映了在宏观经济与监管导向下，银行业整体从追求规模扩张向注重资于配置收益更高的资产，主要加大了对贷款和投资的配置力度，减小存放央行及同业资产的配置力度。拉长时间线来看，我们发现近几年投资占比逐渐上升，而存放央行及同占比来优化整体收益。1Q26上市银行贷款/存放央行/同业/投资占比分别为56.8%/5.4%/5.3%/32.4%，环比分别+0.2pct/-0.3pct/-0.3pct/+0.3pct，同比分别-1.1pct/-不同类型银行资产结构变化趋势分化。近几年主要是国有大行债券原因是配合财政政策实施，例如增持地方政府特殊再融资债券、超长期特别国债等。这部分股份行、城农商行由于有效信贷需求不足、债券投资受限，同业资产占比反而有所提升。其中股份行主要受利率风险指标及国有行市场挤压效应的限制，城、农商行则主要受资本充足率和直接监管指导约束。000000上市银行1Q231H231-3Q2320231Q241H241-3Q2420241Q251H251-3Q2520251Q26环比同比贷款存放央行同业投资57.36%57.33%57.89%57.27%57.68%58.25%57.79%57.66%57.92%57.36%56.96%56.60%56.81%7.30%7.12%6.87%7.22%6.62%6.50%6.47%5.63%5.79%5.66%5.59%5.67%5.41%6.27%6.57%5.85%5.99%6.45%5.47%5.56%5.59%5.27%5.82%5.50%5.62%5.34%29.08%28.98%29.39%29.52%29.24%29.77%30.18%31.11%31.02%31.16%31.94%32.11%32.44% - - --0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%.1%.4%.1%1.4%1.4%国有行1Q231H2313Q2320231Q241H241-3Q2420241Q251H2513Q2520251Q26环比同比贷款存放央行同业投资58.24%58.21%58.86%58.30%58.54%59.44%58.87%58.98%59.23%58.56%58.08%57.71%57.94%8.47%8.20%7.92%8.28%7.62%7.49%7.51%6.32%6.57%6.45%6.45%6.41%6.03%6.61%6.99%6.22%6.11%6.56%5.08%5.23%5.20%4.77%5.49%5.10%4.86%4.54%26.68%26.60%27.00%27.31%27.28%27.99%28.39%29.50%29.43%29.50%30.37%31.02%31.49%0.3%0.3%0.4%-1.3%0.5%0.2% - ----0.5%0.5%2 .1%2股份行1Q231H231-3Q2320231Q241H241-3Q2420241Q251H251-3Q2520251Q26环比同比贷款存放央行同业投资58.15%57.98%58.44%57.47%58.38%58.33%58.02%57.45%57.90%57.58%57.45%56.96%57.20%5.05%5.02%4.80%5.24%4.70%4.47%4.32%4.16%4.10%4.01%3.70%4.12%4.07%5.76%5.93%5.06%5.88%6.40%6.42%6.34%6.60%6.38%6.50%6.26%7.28%6.94%31.04%31.07%31.70%31.41%30.52%30.78%31.32%31.80%31.62%31.90%32.58%31.64%31.79% - -0.1%0.3%0.2%.7%.0%00.2%城商行1Q231H231-3Q2320231Q241H241-3Q2420241Q251H251-3Q2520251Q26环比同比贷款存放央行同业投资49.27%49.72%49.82%49.67%50.21%50.22%50.02%49.33%49.50%49.04%48.64%48.54%48.75%5.10%5.08%4.95%5.09%4.57%4.80%4.58%4.55%4.55%4.20%4.14%4.24%4.40%5.24%5.24%5.26%5.39%5.73%5.72%5.78%5.80%5.90%6.36%6.24%6.80%6.96%40.39%39.97%39.96%39.86%39.49%39.26%39.62%40.31%40.06%40.40%40.99%40.42%39.89% 0.5% 0.5%0.2%0.2%-0-0.8%0.1%0.2%-- - 农商行1Q231H231-3Q2320231Q241H241-3Q2420241Q251H251-3Q2520251Q26环比同比贷款存放央行同业投资52.86%52.81%53.66%53.57%53.39%53.56%53.74%53.74%53.28%53.47%53.11%53.44%52.95%4.83%4.82%4.42%4.60%4.41%4.45%4.31%4.46%4.36%4.30%4.33%4.38%4.32%5.86%5.80%5.54%5.67%6.53%6.37%6.72%6.14%6.60%6.64%7.61%7.53%7.04%36.45%36.57%36.38%36.16%35.67%35.62%35.23%35.66%35.77%35.59%34.95%34.64%35.69%-0.5%0.1%0.5%-0-0-0-0.3%0.0%0.4%.1%--1.0%增速有所放缓。从近几年一季度信贷增量来看，近三年除了1Q24投放节奏”的监管指导影响外，一季度总体仍然是靠前投放的仍为负增长，增长主要依靠国有大行带动，国有行零售贷款整体同比增长1.亿元，其中农行与邮储银行的个人信贷增量主要来源于个人经营性贷款，这与其深耕县域、服务小微的市场定位密切相关。一般对公贷款/票据贴现/零售贷款占总贷款比重分别环比+2.9pct/-1.5pct/-0.5pct至地方经济转型、基础设施建设或产业升级带来的对公融资需求。工商银行建设银行农业银行中国银行交通银行邮储银行招商银行中信银行-0.9%-0.3%-0.2%工商银行建设银行农业银行中国银行交通银行邮储银行招商银行中信银行-0.9%-0.3%-0.2%-0.5%-0.7%0.0%-0.6%-0.2%-1.3%0.6%2.1%5.74%-1.47%-0.10%-0.69%-0.94%-0.08%2.58%4.81%2.51%4.72%1.83%民生银行兴业银行4.74%贷款YoY1Q266.6%7.1%8.8%8.2%5.9%8.3%4.8%2.3%4.5%0.1%5.8% 贷款YoY1Q266.6%7.1%8.8%8.2%5.9%8.3%4.8%2.3%4.5%0.1%5.8%环比环比-0.52%-0.93%环比1.41%-0.79%0.29%6.19%1.57%2.30%环比环比-0.52%-0.93%环比1.41%-0.79%0.29%6.19%1.57%2.30%1.78%2.27%20257.5%7.5%9.0%8.7%6.6%8.2%5.4%2.5%5.8%-0.4%3.7%1Q2628.62%31.61%34.03%28.04%29.60%48.61%49.34%39.05%36.02%30.58%1Q2663.17%58.62%58.84%71.76%67.81%46.58%46.09%58.45%63.98%64.68%202529.51%33.04%34.24%29.16%31.07%50.21%51.26%40.37%33.81%37.89%32.33%1Q268.20%6.62%202561.76%59.41%58.55%65.56%66.24%44.29%44.31%56.18%62.91%59.26%62.85%20258.73%7.55%7.21%5.28%2.68%5.50%4.44%3.45%3.28%2.85%4.82%-0.89%-1.43%-0.22%-1.11%-1.47%-1.60%-1.91%-1.33%浦发银行-1.87%-1.75%光大银行华夏银行平安银行浙商银行1.2%1.2%8.5%0.5%0.5%3.5%-2.5%3.3%-2.5%3.3%1.1%3.0%-1.3%11.8%1.5%6.5%61.03%68.94%45.77%69.58%47.24%47.24%1.47%36.84%27.22%50.94%24.27%50.04%-0.90%50.04%-0.90%2.13%3.83%3.29%6.11%2.72%-0.56-0.56%北京银行南京银行8.6%-5.2%-5.2%0.6%3.4%14.0%61.74%72.10%77.70%5.60%29.96%23.52%22.30%-1.23%8.30%4.38%13.4%西安银行25.6%10.4%-15.2%71.48%75.57%4.10%24.89%20.23%-4.66%3.63%4.19%0.57%宁波银行17.4%15.7%-1.8%61.22%65.95%4.72%西安银行25.6%10.4%-15.2%71.48%75.57%4.10%24.89%20.23%-4.66%3.63%4.19%0.57%宁波银行17.4%15.7%-1.8%61.22%65.95%4.72%30.84%28.23%-2.61%7.94%5.83%-2.11%贵阳银行3.9%3.7%-0.2%83.24%83.27%0.03%15.61%15.67%0.06%1.14%1.06%-0.09%杭州银行14.3%15.9%1.5%69.61%74.60%4.98%28.18%25.40%-2.77%2.21%上海银行2.5%4.3%1.8%59.62%28.11%12.27%成都银行15.8%10.8%-5.0%79.96%83.17%3.21%17.52%16.83%-0.69%2.52%长沙银行12.2%10.0%-2.2%66.59%30.60%2.81%青岛银行16.5%16.8%0.3%74.72%82.48%7.76%18.64%17.52%-1.12%■6.64%郑州银行5.8%3.3%-2.5%68.37%69.20%0.83%23.65%23.18%-0.47%