展后报告-摩根大通-北京车展复盘-2026-05-市场解读

ThismaterialisneitherintendedtobedistributedtoM Showtime-whosurprisedus?Wehostedaninvestortourvisitingtheannualglobally,clickhere)andconductedOEMsandautonomouhighlightedinthisnote:1)Surgingpopularityofultrtechnology"ask"byyoungbuyers,overseasmarkets,5)foreignbrandsstrivingtocomeincreasinglyastandardfeature,7)mitigatingcostinflatlive-streamingandnoshortageofcompetition.show(excludingthosesoft-launchespriortotheautoshow),wethinkGrand-TangSUVamongChinesebrandsrelativeattractivenesstopeeAutostockstendtobeweakposttheAutoShowhistorically….Aftera17%monthtodate,inpartduetoprofittaking.Ouranalysisofthesecsectoronaveragehasyieldeda~2%positivereturnonemonthbeforetheautomoresignificantfroOurAI-driven“Chinaautobuyersentimentindex”suggeststtenthconsecutiveweekofareboundfrlateFebruary.Bybrands,weseeapauseindemcollectivelywhiledemanattheendofthenote).buyers’behaviorduetobetterownershisuperior2Qor2H26QoQorHoHvolumegrowth,and3earningsrevisionsexpectationsbyinvestors:BYD,Leapmotor,NioandXpeng.WeremainrelativelycautiousonLiAutoandSOEWesummarizeour10observationsattheautomainmodelsattheendofthenote.yearwasthesheernumberofandfocusbyOEMsonpremiumlarge6-seaterwithluxuriouscontentand,inseveralcases,atattractivemasstarting~Rmb220k.Variouspjiajie.shen@cathy.xiao.liu@jpmorshirley.x.feng@jpmorgjose.m.asumendi@Seepage21foranalystcertifi2 J.PMorganyoungandfamilybuyers.Webelievethisparticularsegmentmayselargestincreaseincompetitioncomparedtolas“consumptionupgrade”asbuyerscannowbuysuchlargemodelsatattractivepricesthatwereonlypossibleatoverRmb300-350kinthepast.Wethinkthegrowthofthisparticularlarge6-seaterNEVSUVsegmentcanwethinkBYD’sGrandTang,Nio’sESorders,henceleadingtostrongstockperformance.show,wenotefourcriticalfeaturesthatshoulddrivethepotentialsuccessofunderlyingmodelsandappealtosavvyandwillingtoembracenewcontent.Thesefeatures1.Ultra-fastchargingan(clickhere)recentintroductionoftheirupgradedbatterytechnologyand2.Intelligentpowertrainsystemthatlwheeldrive,steer-by-wire,activerear-wheelsteering,forin3.Applicationofphysical3 4.AdvancementtoL3functiodrivingconditionsandwithextremelylimiteddriverinter•Thirdobservation–Ultra-fastthetechnologyarmsraceamongOEMreshapingbothproductstrategyandbusinessmodeBYD'ssecond-generationFlash-Chargebattery(ournotepublishedMarchmaintainingstronglow-temperaturesimultaneouslyscalingitsproprtargetof20,000stationsbyend-2026.AccordingtoRebeccaWen(J.P.MorganAsiaAutosandEVBatteryaccountsforover20%ofitDay(JPMnotepublishedon21-April)pushesthpeakchargerateandover90%cycles,whileitsnewlyunveiledNaxtraSodium-ionBatterytargetsmasstargets4,000charge-swapstationsbyCritically,bothplayersarenowracingecosystems,underscoringthatthefast-chargechemistryintoafullecosystemcompetitionofbattery,network,andsoftwFromanOEMperspective,webelieveultra-fastchargingisshapinagenuinegamechangerforBYD'sgldomesticproductfeature.Notably,thetechnomodelsaswellbasedonourdiscussionwithmanagementbroadeningtheaddressablemarketandremovichargingobjectionsforPHEVbuits1.5mnunitoverseassalestargetthinetworkcitedasareferencecasewherecapexishighertinstallationsbutthepaybackperiodislessthantwoyears,amodelweexpecttobereplicatedacrossothermarkets.Aug-23,2024Apr-25,2025Apr-26,20264 J.PMorgan AvgC-rate:2.4C•Fourthobservation–Lasthe2026BeijingAutoShowprovidedanothervisibleconfirmationmeaningfulandgrowingpresenceofoverseamanagementteamsacrossbooths,judgingbythelanguagesweheard,largelyfromEurope,LatinAmerica,SoutheastAsiaandrepresentativestodealersandimportersasthedominantforeignpresensignalsthatChinesebrands'gmaturing.Thecommercialrationaleisclear:overseasprofitabilityperuni(PV+CV)in2025,indicatingroughlyoneinfourvehiclesproduceddomesticallywasexported.Weexpectcontinuedgrowthin2026,witfromtheacceleratinglocalcapacitybuildoutacrossThailand,Indonesia,Brazil,Hungaryandbeyonmanagementguidingpotentialupsideiftherearenobatteryc~750kunits;Changanistargeting750kunFY26.Intermsofoverseas~30%,andXPengat~20%.Webelievecapacitiesshouldbenefitthemost-BYDTable3:ChineseOEMs'overseas%volume/revXPengSource:CompanyreportsandJ Table4:SummaryofkeyOEMs'LocationModeIndonesiaFullThailand/IndiaFull-ProcessPakistan/EgyptCKDAssembly Europe(TBD)Aug2025(Operational)SpainKDXPengAustria(Magna)Source:CompanyrepoTheirreversibleelectrificationandsmartificationofreconfiguration.Atthe2particularlytheGermantrilocalization-drivenrestructuringprogramsaimingtoregainshareandrestoresustainableprofitabilityintheworld’slargestNEVmarket.•VolkswagenGroup(coveredbyJoseAsumendi):Full-chainlocalizationsignaledthetransitionofitsChinastrategyfocusingondeliverythroulocalizationandenhancedtechnologyoff6 Thecompany’sHefeiChinaTechnologyCenterhasbecolargestR&Dhubglobally,capableoffull-cycledevelopmentofelectronicarchitecturesandADASsystems,shorteningmodeldevelopoflocalsourcingrisiversusthepriorMEBplatform,accordingtomfurther10%cost-downtargetfBEV,PHEV,andrange-extenderarchitectureL2++assisteddrivingasstandard,withL3autonomytargeteddeploymentby2028.Attheshow,thefirstbatchoffulmodelsdebuted,includingtheAudipremiere),LFP-batteryversibatterycostversusNMlocalplatforms.•GermanLuxury(BBA+Porsche,coveredbyJoseAsumendi):Software-definedvehiclesanddeeptechBMW,Mercedes-Benz,andAudi(orso-called“BBA”byChielectric”adaptationstowardpurpose-builtEVarchitectuembeddedtechnologystacks.Outofalldesign,panoramicvisiondisplayandcompetitiveBMWpresented16premieres,highwheelbaseNeueKlasseiX3LWBSUV(longwheelbased)tailoredspecifically900kmCLTCrangeand400kmofrangereplenishmentin10minutes.BMWpartnershipwithMomentaforfull-scenarionavigation-assisteddrivingandwithAlibabaforAIlarge-modelcockpitintegrationillustratesatowardecosystemcollaboration.Withmorethan3,000engineoneofBMW’slargestglobalR&Dcenters—thecompChinaasacoretechnolomanagement.itsdedicatedMB.EAplatform,abandoningpriorICE-derivedEVcompromises.ADASandcockpitsystemslargelydesignedbylocaltediscussionwithBAICmanChinamarketin2026/27.AdditioMercedes’proprietaryoperatinginfotainment,andvehicledynamicsintoaunifieddomain-controlarchitecture—anexplicitendorsementofthesoftware-definedvehicleparadigm. Audi,beyonditsVolkswagenGroupsynergies,announcedajointintelligentEVtechnologycenterinShanghaiwithSAinvolvedincockpitandHMintegratesHuaweiQiankun’sadvanceddriver-assistancedemonstratingthateventraditionalcombustionplatformsarebeinginfusedwithdomesticsmart-drivingcapabilitytoremaiSUV)withtheAUDIletterlogoisscheduledtodebutin2H26.platformwitha0–100km/hreinforcesthatperformancedifferentiationremainsviableinpremiumEVarebecomingcentraltosustainingmargins.•JapaneseOEMs:Multi-pathwayhedgingwiJapaneseautomakershaveadoptedacomparativelydiversifiedtechnologicalhedge.Toyotareaffirmedits“multi-pathway”strategy,showcasingbZ-andthenewRAV4.UnlikeEudownonhybridupgradeswhileacceleratingtherolloutoBEVs—fivelocalizedmodelsareplannedwportfoliomitigatestransitionriskbutmaycapupsideincreasinglyrewardingpure-playEVinnovatdriving.8 J.PMorgan4,949×1,970×1,710/3,4,763×1,836×1,471/2,4,885×1,895×1,480/3,motorAWD405kW;107kWhwheeldrive4,920×1,865×1,625/2,BEVSUV:Single-motorYuzhong074,853×1,852×1,566/2,4,870×1,920×1,680/2,4,850×1,910×1,676/2,systempower237/280kW4,900×1,890×1,470/2,BEV/EREVSedan:Puredualpowertrains;8Source:InformationcollectedbyJ.P.MorganattheBeiji•Sixthobservation-AdvancingtoL3adoptionHorizonRobotics(coveredbyCherryLiu)andBlackSesamWesummarizeourmeetingsuggestthestrategicdevelopmentoftheindustry.AmongOEMs,weclearlyseemoreareadvancingfromoa)offeringL3functionaexpandingthesameunderlyingAI-modeltohumanoidrobot1.PlatformizationandEcosystetransitioningfromproject-basedsalestoscalableplatformmodels.HorizonRoboticsisbundlingchichargingpervehicle,andaimingforrepeatable,volume-drivBlackSesameispositionalgorithmpartners.ThisplatformizaticollaborativeenvironmeacrossChina’sautomarket. howecosystembuildingwilldrivebroadera2.Advancedchipdevelopmentandintegration:Botheavilyinnext-generatiointegrationcapabilities.Horizonautonomousdrivingfeaturesdrivingastandardinnewvehicles.TheintegrationofcockpADASfunctions,aswellasttechnologies,willdrivebroaderadsetnewindustrybenchmarksforperformanceandsafe3.ExpansionbeyondautomotiveintBlackSesameisaggressivelyexpandingitsAIchipapplicautos,launchingroboticsproductsliketheSaaSMeXbrainmodules(Carlos,Auro,LioTheiralgorithmproductsarealsoexploringbroaderintegration,withitsopen-architecturevehicleOSexpansionwilldrivecross-industryinnovation,makingautontechnologiesrelevantnotjustforvehiclesbutforrobotics,factories,andrelianceonforeignchipsuppliedominantshareinL2+models.TheirpartnershipswithleadingdomesticOEMs(BYD,Geely,Chery,SAIC,FAW,Doacceleratelocalinnovationandreducelocally-drivenautonomousdrivingindustbasedpricingandsubscriptionmodels,broadeningitscustomerbaseandaimingtobreakinto23automakersin2026.Theseinnovativepricingstrategieswillmakedrivingbroaderadoptionacrossmarketsegments.Byextendingtakeoverintervalsandfocusingonrecurringrevenuestreamstandardfeature,notapremiumadd-on,accel•Seventhobservation-MthemeinourOEMandsuppliermeetingsa tomitigatethepressurefrominputmaterinear-termearningsheadwindsforChineseOEMsinsuggeststhatifcurrentspotpriceseventuallytranslateintofullyearcontractprices,thetotalBOM(billoRmb5,000–6,000pervehicle,ofwhichstoragechipsalonecouldaccountforchipsareparticularlydifficulttomitigate:withSamsungandHynixrunningtightcapacity,OEMsareeffeBYD'sverticalintegrationandscaleprovidearoverseasmiximprovement,productmixuplocalizationasthekeymitigationleversheadinginto2H26.developingrapidly:HumanoidrobotsremainedavisiblethemeattheBeijingAutoShow,thoughouroverallassessmentisthatmeaningfulbroabasedcommercializationisstillsXPengshowcasedaneartargetingmassproductiontowardend-2026withamoapplyingcar-gradestandardsfManagementemphasizedthathumanoidrobotsrethanvehicles,giventhecomplexityof70–80jointsandthesafety-critinatureoftheiroperation.Thecommercializationstrategyprioritizcommercialscenariosfirstthenindustrial,andfinallyhoinitiatives,includingIRON,robotaxcontributionmaynotmaterializeuntil2H/4Q26orbeyonXiaomi(coveredbyGokulHariharan,J.P.MorgahumanoidrobotbeginningfactorydeploymentatitsEVplantthisyearandtheourmeetingwithmanagemeAsiaInfrastructure,Industrial&TransportResearch,pointedthatChineseplayerssuchasUBTecharetargeting2-3kunitsofhumanoidrobotshipmentsin2026,whileUnitree'sprospectusrevealsgrossmarginsalreadyat~59%andNPMat~35%in2025,defstage(note).Wemaintainourvieconfinedtostructured,controlledenvironmentsoverthenHumanoidrobotsrequiremoresophistprecedewide-scaleL4vehicleadoptio criticalmassisreached,potentiallyafter2027/28in•Ninthobservation-Producthomogeneityratherthandifferentiation:show,onenoticeabletakeawaywasthatproducts,especiallyamongChinesebrands,arenottrulydifferehomogenousintermsofexteriordesign(e.g.headlight,frontlook)andfridges,massageseats).Whilealltheseareattractivefeatures,manlookalikeandarehardtodistinguishwithoutloo1.Exteriordesignlanguagehomogeneity:AttheBerevealedanoticeablelevelofsimilarity.Mostvehiclidenticalorverysimilarheadlightshapes—oftehoweveritmakesitdifficulttodistinguishonebrandfro2.Thereardesignsalsofollowedacommondesignelementsmeansthat,withoutavisiblelogo,itishardtoidenthemanufacturer.Suchhomogeneitycreateanemotionalconnectionwithconsumers.Inamarketrisksturningvehiclesintocommodities,inourvi3.Interiorcontenthomogeneilargedigitalpanelortechbutuniformcabinenvironment.Featureslikeonboardfridges,offeringcomfortandconveniencebutlittleinthewayofcharacter.Allvehiclesboastedfeelwasmodernandpremium,butlackeddifferentiation—eachinteriorseemedtofollowsimilarblassociatespecificfeatuniformity,drivenbysharedplatfoopportunitiesforOEMstoexprinteriordesign.•Tenthobservation-livescontinuetowitnessanoverwhelmingnumberoflive-streamersattheBeijingAutoShowthisyear,reinforcingatrendwehaveconsistentlybooths,thenumberoflive-streamerswas2–4timesthatofthesalesstaff—Thesignificanceoflive-streamingintheautoindustrygoesbeyomarketing-itreflectsastructuralshiftin collectinformationbeforepurchannelssuchasmagazinesornewspaperstowardsocbuilding,directcustomerengagemediawillhaveameaningfuladvantageconventionalapproaches.Inamarketwithrisingproducthomogeneityandbecominginseparablefromtheabilitytowinmarketshare. J.PMorganSource:Companywebsite,J.P.Morgan,asoSource:Companywebsite,J.P.Morgan,asoSource:J.P.MorganphotoattheBeijinSource:J.P.MorganphotoattheBeijinSource:J.P.Morgan,asoSource:J.P.MorganphotoattheBeijin J.PMorganSource:J.P.MorganphotoattheBeijinSource:J.P.MorganphotoattheBeijinSource:J.P.MorganphotoattheBeijinSource:J.P.MorganphotoattheBeijinSource:J.P.MorganphotoattheBeijinSource:J.P.MorganphotoattheBeijin J.PMorganSource:J.P.MorganphotoattheBeijinSource:J.P.MorganphotoattheBeijinSource:J.P.MorganphotoattheBeijinSource:J.P.MorganphotoattheBeijinSource:J.P.MorganphotoattheBeijin J.PMorganSource:CompanyWebsite,J.P.Morgan,asoSource:J.P.MorganphotoattheBeijinSource:J.P.MorganphotoattheBeijinSource:J.P.MorganphotoattheBeijin J.PMorgan62%560%879%79%79%66%--19474%65%248AsiaOthers--1-116931-252235465%65%--111174%68%411122-Africa1138--113Figure22:OverallAutoIndustSource:J.P.MorganChinaAutosSentimentIndex(companydata,Autohome,Gasgoo J.PMorganFigure23:ChinaAutoBrandsWSource:J.P.MorganChinaAutosSentimentIndex(companydata,Autohome,GasgooSource:J.P.MorganChinaAutosSentimentIndex(companydata,Autohome,Gasgoo J.PMorganTable8:AutoSectorperformanceduringCompanyTickerRatin1.本资料来源于网络公开渠道，版权归属版权方；1.本资料来源于网络公开渠道，版权归属版权方；2.本资料仅限会员学习使用，如他用请联系版权方；3.会员费用作为信息收集整理及运营之必须费用；4.如侵犯您的合法权益，请联系下方客服微信将及时删除。1.进群福利：进群即领2000+份汽车干货，直接打包下载2.每日分享：5+份精选汽车行业干货3.报告查找：群里直接咨询，免费协助查找4.不定期行业一线专家免费业务经验直播分享5.严禁广告：仅限行业报告交流，禁止一切无关信息6.严禁未经群里私加群友电脑端访问体验更佳：https://we1.读报告——2.查数据——3.学课程——4.找专家—— J.PMorganApr-26NNNNNNXpeng-Adr 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