有色金属行业物质流月报：国内表需逐步复苏出口仍为核心驱动

内容目录一、：内5月求续修，国4月需落、品口弱 3中国求 3美国求 4二、：需际暖铝材铝品口眼 5中国求 5三、铁 7黑色业物流几亚铁和煤著量冲能通胀 7钢材求质：备求有性海短程胀激出替代 8四、酸：需增续，能出链动际需求 10风险示 11图表目录图表1：中国5表比+6，际求比+9 3图表2：外结分汽车变器撑电电缆拖累 3图表3：美国4表比-23，品口续弱 4图表4：美制进前4月比-27，电电、汽和压仍主拖累 5图表5：中国5表比基持，际求比-5 6图表6：终间出汽车条现眼 6图表7：1-5铁矿质流万） 7图表8：1-5焦物流（吨） 8图表9：1-5钢真内需万） 9图表10：1-5月材口（吨） 9图表11：中锂观际需月跟踪 10图表12：中锂际求拆月跟踪 11一、铜：国内5月需求延续修复，美国4月表需回落、制品进口走弱中国需求26年5中铜观求149.4万同比+6比中实铜求110.1万比+9环较4157092+2（+1.750.2-195中国视角，全球铜需求前5月，内需-1.9万吨，外需+21.6万吨，合计新增19.7万吨，全球铜需求同比新增近1。5月33.4+61-512.6-18（-289527.0-61-5124.9-6（-7.354图表1：中国5月表需同比+6，实际需求同比+9单位：万吨中国铜表观需求铜材净进口新废铜（25）中国铜制品出口中国实际铜需求2025-01126.332.6-39.728.890.42025-02116.433.3-37.417.794.52025-03150.032.5-45.626.3110.62025-04158.528.6-46.830.8109.62025-05141.331.6-43.228.7101.02025-06143.130.6-43.427.0103.32025-07142.428.9-42.828.0100.52025-08146.231.7-44.527.9105.62025-09150.739.4-47.527.4115.22025-10135.930.6-41.625.299.62025-11130.021.0-37.727.186.12025-12135.027.0-40.528.093.42025年1675.9367.7-510.9322.81209.92026-01127.819.3-36.825.285.12026-02108.116.4-31.121.272.12026-03158.127.6-46.424.6114.72026-04165.933.0-49.726.9122.32026-05149.433.4-45.727.0110.12026年前5月709.2129.6-209.7124.9504.2前5月同比2-18-1-605月同比666-69前5月增量16.7-28.93.1-7.3-1.9、SMM、27.0-64124.9万吨，同比-6，较去年同期减少7.3万吨。分结构看，汽车和变压器仍是主要支撑，1-5月汽车含铜净出口21.6+203.610.0+252.078.6-97.45+10+25-9、空调同比-35仍拖累整体。电线电缆、空调等传统出口链条走弱，或受到美国制品关税影响；汽车和变压器仍有韧性，但外需整体尚未明显转强。图表2：外需结构分化，汽车和变压器支撑、电线电缆仍拖累单位：万吨冰箱空调汽车变压器洗衣机手机电脑电线电缆合计2025-010.81.73.81.80.21.00.818.728.8单位：万吨冰箱空调汽车变压器洗衣机手机电脑电线电缆合计2025-020.61.52.41.30.10.80.610.417.72025-030.81.83.31.50.10.80.717.226.32025-040.81.84.21.70.20.70.720.730.82025-050.71.64.31.60.10.60.619.028.72025-060.71.13.71.90.10.60.718.027.02025-070.81.04.12.00.10.70.718.728.02025-080.80.74.72.10.20.60.718.127.92025-090.70.54.62.30.21.30.717.127.42025-100.60.54.91.80.11.20.615.525.22025-110.70.64.71.80.11.20.517.627.12025-120.60.75.62.00.10.90.517.528.02025年8.713.650.321.81.710.37.8208.5322.82026-010.61.04.02.20.10.60.516.125.22026-020.51.13.72.00.10.50.412.921.22026-030.61.34.32.00.10.60.615.124.62026-040.61.34.91.70.10.60.517.126.92026-050.61.14.72.00.10.60.517.427.02026年前5月3.05.821.610.00.62.92.578.6124.9前5月同比-19-322025-22-24-27-9-65月同比-13-351025-202-24-9-6前5月增量-0.7-2.83.62.0-0.2-0.9-0.9-7.4-7.3、SMM、国金证券研究所美国需求26年4美铜观求22.9万，比-23环比-9；美实铜求40.5万，比-25环比-7累计4105.21-2167.5比-1121.2图表3：美国4月表需同比-23，制品进口继续走弱单位：万吨铜表观需求铜材净进口新废铜（25）铜制品进口实际铜需求2025-0120.91.1-5.530.647.12025-0217.60.8-4.627.341.12025-0319.61.2-5.231.146.72025-0429.70.7-7.631.053.82025-0530.91.4-8.131.856.02025-0625.21.0-6.530.850.42025-0733.51.4-8.733.159.32025-0818.60.9-4.931.345.82025-0919.00.6-4.928.543.22025-1015.80.2-4.028.240.12025-119.80.5-2.624.932.62025-1223.50.0-5.923.541.02025年263.89.8-68.4352.1557.22026-0128.30.5-7.221.443.02026-0228.60.0-7.218.840.22026-0325.30.1-6.424.743.8单位：万吨铜表观需求铜材净进口新废铜（25）铜制品进口实际铜需求2026-0422.90.4-5.823.140.52026年前4月105.21.0-26.587.9167.5前4月同比20-7516-27-114月同比-23-52-23-26-25前4月增量17.5-2.9-3.7-32.1-21.2国金证券研究所23.126487.9去年同期减少32.1万吨。结构上，拖累主要来自电线电缆、汽车和变压器，前4月电线电缆进口含铜40.8万吨，同比-2312.713.1408.517.224图表4：美国制品进口前4月同比-27，电线电缆、汽车和变压器仍是主要拖累单位：万金属吨冰箱空调汽车变压器洗衣机手机电脑电线电缆合计2025-010.91.56.35.90.10.71.014.230.62025-021.02.04.94.90.10.60.813.127.32025-030.92.46.45.80.10.81.013.831.12025-040.92.44.45.90.10.61.115.731.02025-050.82.15.15.60.10.61.416.231.82025-060.81.74.85.80.10.61.515.530.82025-070.91.94.56.10.10.61.717.433.12025-080.91.84.26.70.10.51.515.831.32025-090.81.43.66.50.10.81.314.128.52025-100.81.23.96.00.10.91.613.628.22025-110.71.03.85.10.00.81.811.724.92025-120.60.84.34.30.00.71.611.023.52025年10.020.156.168.70.78.216.2172.0352.12026-010.61.03.04.20.00.71.310.621.42026-020.61.12.53.30.00.51.59.318.82026-030.71.64.14.80.00.71.711.124.72026-040.71.63.54.90.00.71.89.823.12026年前4月2.65.213.117.20.12.66.340.887.9前4月同比-31-36-40-23-49-459-28-274月同比-23-34-20-16-513260-38-26前4月增量-1.1-3.0-8.9-5.3-0.1-0.12.3-16.0-32.1二、铝：表需边际回暖，铝材&铝制品出口亮眼中国需求265421.54309.7-5。1915.841432.15储能6出口方面，沪铝和伦铝之间价差较大，继续利好出口端修复。铝材5月出口52.0万吨，同比+15、环比+1.1万吨，1-52294（19.0543.2比+143.9195.8图表5：中国5月表需同比基本持平，实际需求同比-5单位：万吨中国铝表观需求再生铝铝材出口铝制品出口其他终端间接出口中国实际铝需求2025-01333.760.543.543.492.0215.32025-02314.357.331.623.351.8264.82025-03446.276.444.734.878.8364.32025-04433.672.345.336.287.3337.22025-05423.371.945.337.884.4327.62025-06386.872.940.736.882.9299.42025-07393.374.143.537.379.9306.82025-08398.472.944.340.586.1300.42025-09398.978.443.538.187.0308.72025-10400.476.541.535.277.1323.02025-11385.080.946.040.583.5295.82025-12398.475.944.440.488.6300.82025年4712.2870.0514.3444.3979.53644.12026-01372.179.346.745.886.7272.22026-02253.948.638.237.272.1155.02026-03435.181.041.630.376.8367.52026-04429.169.350.939.384.9323.32026-05421.568.852.043.285.4309.72026年前5月1915.8347.0229.4195.8405.31432.1前5月同比-239123-55月同比0-415142-5前5月增量-34.48.619.020.312.8-77.9、SMM、海关总署、其他终端间接出口面月中国间接出口铝元测算为85.4万吨同比+2环比维持修态势月405.312.8125.1万比+29加28.2吨月月车汽同维高增变器电电分别比+12、3C图表6：终端间接出口中汽车链条表现亮眼单位：万吨汽车+汽零其他交运光伏变压器电线电缆机械3C家电合计2025-0121.429.09.41.78.215.46.992.02025-0213.212.06.31.24.89.05.351.82025-0319.619.49.71.58.113.56.978.82025-0420.725.48.81.79.314.27.187.32025-0521.822.89.31.68.913.36.784.42025-0620.224.98.62.08.413.25.582.92025-0721.121.98.31.98.712.95.179.92025-0823.024.210.72.18.213.14.886.12025-0922.626.710.22.37.912.74.487.02025-1022.621.97.72.07.511.24.177.12025-1123.823.58.21.98.513.24.483.5单位：万吨汽车+汽零其他交运光伏变压器电线电缆机械3C家电合计2025-1228.722.18.02.28.913.84.888.62025年259.0274.0105.122.097.5155.766.2979.52026-0124.626.56.51.98.213.65.486.72026-0222.617.76.61.76.711.85.072.12026-0322.217.913.01.77.210.14.776.82026-0427.321.18.71.58.312.75.284.92026-0528.422.46.21.89.112.94.785.42026年前5月125.1105.641.08.539.562.722.9405.3前5月同比29-3-6101-5-2435月同比30-2-33122-5-242前5月增量28.2-3.0-2.50.80.3-3.5-7.412.8、SMM、海关总署、三、钢铁黑色产业链物质流：几内亚铁矿和蒙煤显著放量对冲能源通胀，1-54.5、5.21837.6进口比幅长5248.2、加268.1万，主流仍减。4.7529.8本矿收5月产比降3.4长程水流同长0.8金基通预交多持仓进步3-570/1-5268.1BHP图表7：1-5月铁精矿物质流（万吨）日期铁精矿流入流出长流程累/去库澳大利亚巴西进口几内亚其他国产1-5月同比4.55.25248.210.4-4.70.1-167.65月同比-1.7-5.41348.26.2-3.40.898.71-5月增量1335.2502.4268.1967.4-529.872.42471.02026/5/316139.11654.874.01903.22227.012408.7(410.6)2026/4/306135.02106.670.12073.62227.012951.2(338.9)2026/3/316597.91712.976.62087.02140.813799.8(1184.6)2026/2/285577.92167.429.31989.22132.910456.81439.92026/1/316428.32555.223.22231.82132.911881.01490.42025/12/316962.02808.60.02192.22132.913778.1317.72025/11/306416.12733.90.01898.52231.912624.8655.62025/10/316562.42578.50.01979.62259.012951.5428.02025/9/307032.62733.111.21842.72265.213576.9308.02025/8/316206.72614.43.81681.12194.412630.769.72025/7/316358.02339.00.01745.92320.612746.417.12025/6/306810.02231.510.21526.82391.613370.7(400.6)2025/5/316246.31748.45.11792.92306.112305.6(206.7)2025/4/306232.42022.50.02039.42276.812795.7(224.7)2025/3/315504.21822.20.02050.62245.412653.4(1031.1)2025/2/285277.02333.00.01790.62281.112543.7(862.1)2025/1/316283.21768.30.01643.92281.111126.6849.8，Mysteel 焦煤给宽更来进口量国端1-5同比降2.2少442.0万月比降5.4蒙进，1-53339.166.61334.35221-514.33477.0图表8：1-5月焦煤物质流（万吨）日期焦煤流入流出焦炭累/去库国产蒙古俄罗斯进口澳大利亚其他1-5月同比-2.266.617.112.2-52.9-14.3-99.75月同比-5.460.348.735.036.4-78.1-142.91-5月增量-442.01334.347.3153.9-444.6-3477.0276.32026/5/313849.5696.970.4253.893.41073.441.12026/4/303849.5771.145.2268.345.44929.949.72026/3/314252.4764.437.0337.8103.25718.9(224.1)2026/2/283507.6458.583.9230.733.84285.828.82026/1/313822.8648.288.1319.5120.04894.7103.82025/12/314036.6671.7178.2359.7167.35422.4(8.8)2025/11/304335.7624.485.1274.089.55359.149.72025/10/314066.1536.5104.7277.4140.75040.485.02025/9/304231.5600.157.5288.9145.95376.4(52.6)2025/8/313975.9601.536.7256.7120.84950.241.42025/7/313721.9497.943.1336.683.14552.2130.42025/6/304064.4470.4102.5231.3104.25077.1(104.3)2025/5/314070.3434.947.3188.168.44904.8(95.8)2025/4/303926.2483.737.8252.5115.34684.3131.22025/3/314161.5442.016.3283.0122.05143.7(118.8)2025/2/283622.6316.554.2261.8255.24841.0(330.8)2025/1/313943.4327.8121.6270.9279.44805.9137.2，Mysteel 钢材需求物质流：装备需求有韧性，海外短流程通胀激发出口替代1-5月内需仍处承压通道，主要拖累来自地产、基建、汽车和家电。1-5月钢材真实内需合计同比下降13.9、减少2294.1吨其地比降49.4、少1063.1吨基同下降2.4、少711.0吨；5单月实需合同降产基电别同降27.97.233.3现性通202410.411.0；529.4机同幅降4.9背主来自色期气全球运行升货程以机图表9：1-5月钢材真实内需（万吨）真实内需日期地产基建机械船舶汽车家电能源化工其他合计5月同比-27.9-7.2-4.929.4-33.3-14.67.2-0.1-21.4-10.81-5月同比-49.4-2.410.47.3-31.8-35.611.0-1.6-31.6-13.91-5月增量(1063.1)(711.0)(105.1)143.3(307.3)(103.1)129.4(0.2)(277.1)(2294.1)2026/5/31878.42752.2238.9126.9306.5178.5665.989.7425.75662.62026/4/30593.62435.5668.7177.1201.3155.3535.473.0280.35120.12026/3/31714.12548.1795.5175.887.3195.6507.469.4242.05335.22026/2/28705.81953.3232.0174.0126.8126.1463.762.7241.44085.72026/1/31733.82184.4322.0104.3200.4126.5431.465.0253.74421.62025/12/31704.12096.0326.5108.4197.2123.5295.544.5217.94113.72025/11/30618.62108.4348.5200.8206.0109.6385.156.5262.34295.82025/10/31562.22254.4335.2212.2216.2106.5403.758.1240.94389.32025/9/30702.62258.2301.8218.8152.1112.5355.351.0216.24368.52025/8/31752.12377.2326.4165.8180.8120.8435.263.4281.44703.02025/7/31822.82474.8324.3215.6224.3128.1462.668.6312.55033.62025/6/30900.52756.8350.9177.6176.2162.4441.364.2337.45367.32025/5/31958.92829.7451.5110.5215.4185.1496.172.6361.45681.22025/4/30872.72654.0612.088.0254.9182.2460.468.9349.45542.62025/3/311023.12777.9834.2157.0179.3204.2457.167.6332.66033.02025/2/28941.51940.6428.8149.0183.9166.9472.070.2314.74667.72025/1/31973.22459.7248.293.9304.9153.2418.963.5297.85013.4，Mysteel 35.5238.2-8.1392.01-531.140.9524.936.1动出口计比长隐出合同增长11.0加590.8吨续图表10：1-5月钢材总出口（万吨）日期机械船舶隐性出口汽车家电合计东南亚中东南美洲直接出口非洲欧盟其他合计5月同比24.933.136.1-4.127.313.2-39.7-13.0-5.6-2.41.5-2.31-5月同比16.67.834.4-10.311.0-4.2-35.5-13.6-2.831.1-3.7-8.11-5月增量194.3222.1240.4-66.0590.8-56.6-238.2-57.7-9.840.9-70.5-392.02026/5/31331.4783.3234.3130.01479.0329.977.580.685.232.0428.91034.02026/4/30591.31177.891.2125.51985.9304.738.075.368.142.6421.3950.02026/3/31587.6972.477.5103.21740.7270.579.772.761.323.1405.7913.02026/2/28423.4640.879.694.01237.7218.793.866.762.644.6297.7784.02026/1/31454.7740.9102.5105.11403.3175.2144.271.962.830.3290.5775.02025/12/31492.4662.978.677.81311.7324.8154.787.494.421.0447.71130.02025/11/30427.8869.784.473.41455.3289.4123.588.781.923.9390.7998.02025/10/31422.2898.282.274.11476.6297.5135.883.772.544.9343.5978.02025/9/30397.6927.171.266.91462.8282.0165.482.080.232.8404.51047.02025/8/31422.41030.180.689.71622.8247.2133.576.270.137.7386.4951.02025/7/31468.5968.776.698.41612.1245.9132.4103.271.139.3392.0984.02025/6/30484.81021.075.790.11671.5257.7117.994.667.026.5404.2968.02025/5/31542.5940.287.4132.81702.9291.4128.692.690.332.8422.41058.02025/4/30524.21048.278.3136.81787.5312.8134.781.668.135.7413.21046.02025/3/31559.61087.955.1137.51840.1264.0152.194.078.917.2439.81046.02025/2/28368.5661.363.996.81190.5232.0122.678.846.725.7298.2804.02025/1/31382.7771.170.1124.11348.0255.4133.577.865.920.3341.1894.0，Mysteel 四、碳酸锂：表需高增延续，储能与出口链拉动实际需求2026514.2565.953.4国际锂求10.9万+75计前5计间口18.0吨比国内实际需求47.9万吨，同比增长63，较去年同期增加18.6万吨。57.03.15.4+48、+29、+114，电池和整车出口仍是外需主线；正极材料出口前5月2.5万吨，同比+45。533.3205.513.578加5.9万是需增力1.1比基持（0.1万消费.6比-1物流推算，前5月产业链库存增加14.6万吨，产业链补库对需求形成阶段性拉动。图表11：中国锂表观&实际需求月度跟踪国内实际锂需单位：万吨 表观需求 正极出口 动力电池出口 储能电池出口 新能源车出口 合计间接出口求2025-01-318.60.20.80.40.41.96.72025-02-286.40.30.90.50.42.24.22025-03-318.10.41.00.60.52.45.72025-04-309.00.31.00.50.62.56.52025-05-318.60.41.00.40.62.46.22025-06-309.00.51.10.60.62.76.22025-07-3110.10.51.10.50.72.97.22025-08-3111.30.51.10.50.72.78.52025-09-301