高级综合商务英语2（第二版） 课件Unit 9 Decision Making

UnitNine

DecisionMakingLead-in

Lead-in

DiscussionEverydaywearefacedwithalotofdecisions.Decisionmakingisalsooneofthecentralactivitiesinbusiness.Arrangethefollowingdecision-makingstepsintocorrectorder.Createalternatives.Implementadecision.Identifytheproblem.Evaluatethealternatives.Decideonthebestsolution.Learnfromandreflectonthedecision.Lead-in

Discussion2.Haveyouboughtanythingonlinerecently?Howlongdoyouusuallyspendinmakingyouronlinepurchasedecisions?Manyfactorscaninfluencepeople’spurchasedecisions:productofferings,price,distributionchannel,promotionactivities,andone’spersonality,purchasingpower,buyingsituation,etc.Themorecomplextheabovefactorsare,thelongertimeittakestomakeadecision.TextAWhatAI-DrivenDecisionMakingLooksLikeStructuralAnalysisPara.MainTopics1-3Introduction:Data-drivenandAI-drivendecisionmakingaredifferent,andAIhelpsmaximizethevalueofdata.4-7Traditionalbusinessdecisionsdependonhumanintuition,whichhascognitivebiasesfromevolution.8-12Data-drivendecisionmakingstillhaslimitsbecausedatasummariesloseinformationandhumanskeepbiasedthinking.13-17AIshouldbethemaindataprocessor,andhumansandAIshouldworktogetherforbetterdecisions.18-19Conclusion:AI-drivendecisionmakingisthenextdevelopmentstage,andnewcompanieswillleadthischange.PartI

QuestionsaboutPartIQ1.Whatisthemaindifferencebetweendata-drivenandAI-drivenapproaches?Data-drivenfocusesondataassetsandreliesonhumansasthemainprocessor;AI-drivenfocusesonprocessingabilityandusesAItoextractinsightsfromdata.PartI

QuestionsaboutPartIQ2.WhydoestheauthorthinkweneedtomovetoAI-drivenworkflows?Tofullyleveragethevaluehiddenindataandreducelimitationsfromhumanprocessing.Datacanimprovedecisions,butitrequirestherightprocessortogetthemostfromit.(Line2,Para.1)Dataitselfsupportsbetterdecisions,butyouneedaneffectiveprocessor(humanorAI)tofullyrealizeitsvalue.PartI

SentenceInterpretation

leverage(Para.2)

v.

tousesomethingtoachievemaximumadvantageorprofit

synonyms:utilize;exploit;capitalizeon

example:EnterprisesmustleverageAItechnologytoimproveoperationalefficiency.PartI

WordsandExpressionsPartI

NotesArtificialIntelligence(AI)ArtificialIntelligence(AI)isabranchofcomputersciencethatbuildssmartsystemstosimulatehumanintelligence.Itcoversmachinelearning,computervision,andnaturallanguageprocessingascoresectors.NowAIhaspenetratedallindustries,boostingproductionefficiency,assistingmedicaldiagnosis,andenablingautonomousdriving.Itbringshugeconveniencewhiletriggeringdiscussionsonethicsandemployment,andremainsthecoredriveroffuturetechprogress.Q1.Whatwasthemainbasisofbusinessdecisionmaking50–75yearsago?Humanjudgment,intuition,andexperiencefromlongyearsofpractice,withverylittledatasupport.PartII

QuestionsaboutPartIIQ2.Whydidhumansevolvecognitivebiases?Earlyhunter-gatherersneededquick,low-costdecisionsforsurvival;evolutionfavoredimpulsiveshortcutsoveraccuracy.PartII

QuestionsaboutPartIIQ3.Whatnegativeeffectsdocognitivebiasesbringtobusinessdecisions?Theymakedecisionsirrational,inefficient,capricious,andfallible,limitingorganizationalperformance.PartII

QuestionsaboutPartII1.Ourbrainsareinflictedwithmanycognitivebiasesthatimpairourjudgmentinpredictableways.(Line2,Para.5)Cognitivebiasesarebuiltintoourthinkingandtheyregularlycauseustomakeflawed,non‑objectivejudgments.PartII

SentenceInterpretation2.Withsuchasymmetryinoutcomes,evolutionfavorsthetraitthatleadstolesscostlyconsequences,evenatthesacrificeofaccuracy.(Line10,Para.6)Becausetherisksandresultsofdifferentchoicesarehighlyunbalanced(thecostofbeingwrongisfarhigherthanthecostofbeingcautious),naturalselectiontendstoretainthedecision-makingtraitthatminimizesseverelosses,evenifthismeansreducingjudgmentaccuracy.PartII

SentenceInterpretationcognitivebias(Para.5)np.asystematicpatternofdeviationfromrationaljudgmentindecisionmakingsynonyms:perceptualbias;judgmentalerrorexample:

Cognitivebiasoftenleadsmanagerstomakewronginvestmentdecisions.PartII

WordsandExpressionsheuristics(Para.5)n.awayofsolvingproblemsbyfindingsolutionsbasedonyourownexperiencesexample:

Themarketingteamhasusedsimpleheuristicstoquicklytestcampaignstrategies.PartII

WordsandExpressionsplague(Para.7)v.totrouble,torment,orbothersomeoneorsomethingpersistentlysynonyms:torment;trouble;pesterexample:

Severesupplychaindisruptionsofoilcontinuetoplaguetheglobalmanufacturingsector.PartII

WordsandExpressionsPartIII

QuestionsaboutPartIIIQ1.Whatisa“data-driven”workflowinpractice?Machinesstorebigdata→ITsummarizesdataintosmallreadableformats→humansanalyzeviadashboards/spreadsheets→humansmakedecisions.PartIII

QuestionsaboutPartIIIQ2.Nametwomajorlimitationsofhuman-leddata-drivendecisions.1)Datasummarizationlosesdetailedinsightsandmaymisleadpeople;2)Humansstillapplycognitivebiaseswhendirectingdataanalysis.PartIII

QuestionsaboutPartIIIQ3.Whycan’tdataeliminatehumanbias?Humansdesignhowdataisaggregated,classified,andinterpreted,followingintuitivebutbiasedrules.1.Summarizeddatacanobscuremanyoftheinsights,relationships,andpatternscontainedintheoriginal(big)dataset.(Line1,Para.10)Whenbigdataissimplifiedintosummaries,manyimportantinsights,variableconnections,andhiddenpatternsgethiddenorlost.PartIII

SentenceInterpretation2.Datasummariesaredirectedbyhumansinawaythatispronetoallthosecognitivebiases.(Line1,Para.11)Humansdecidehowtosummarizedata,sothesesummariesstillcarryandreflecthumancognitivebiases.PartIII

SentenceInterpretationaggregate(Para.10)adj.collectedintoatotalorsummarysynonyms:

total;consolidatedexample:Weneedtheaggregatemonthlysalesdatatoanalyzeourannualperformance.PartIII

WordsandExpressionsconfoundingfactor(Para.10)np.avariablethatdistortsthetruerelationshipbetweentwomeasuredfactorssynonyms:

interferingfactor;distortingvariableexample:Confoundingfactorsincludingseasonalitymustbeexcludedinsalesdataanalysis.PartIII

WordsandExpressionsSimpson’sparadox(Para.10)Simpson’sparadoxisastatisticalphenomenonwhereatrendobservedinseparatedatagroupsreverseswhengroupsarecombined.Itoftenarisesfromhiddenconfoundingvariablesskewingdatadistribution.Itwarnsanalystsagainstdrawingconclusionsfromaggregateddataalone,highlightingtheneedtoexaminesegmenteddatacarefullyinstatisticalresearch.PartIII

NotesPartIV

QuestionsaboutPartIVQ1.WhatadvantagesdoesAIhaveoverhumansindataprocessing?AIavoidscognitivebias,handlesfine-grainedsegmentsandmassivedata,andunderstandsnon-linearrelationships.PartIV

QuestionsaboutPartIVQ2.DoesAI-drivendecisionmakingmeanhumansareunnecessary?No.Humanscontributestrategy,values,culture,andnon-structuredinformationthatAIcannotprocess.PartIV

QuestionsaboutPartIVQ3.HowshouldhumansandAIcollaborate?Humansdonotinterfacedirectlywithrawdata;theychoosefromoptionsgeneratedbyAI,combiningAIobjectivitywithhumanstrategy.1.AIcanbetrainedtofindsegmentsinthepopulationthatbestexplainvarianceatfine-grainlevelseveniftheyareunintuitivetoourhumanperceptions.(Line7,Para.13)AIcanidentifydetailedusergroupsthatexplaindatadifferenceswell,evenifthesegroupsseemillogicalorunnoticeabletohumans.PartIV

SentenceInterpretation2.ThekeyisthathumansarenotinterfacingdirectlywithdatabutratherwiththepossibilitiesproducedbyAI’sprocessingofthedata.(Line1,Para.17)Humansnolongerdealwithrawdatadirectly;theyonlyevaluateandchoosefromdecisionoptionsgeneratedbyAI.PartIV

SentenceInterpretationincremental(Para.14)adj.relatingtoordenotingaprocessofincreaseordevelopmentthathappensgraduallyinaseriesofregularsmallstepssynonyms:

gradual;step-by-step;progressiveexample:Theproductteamplanstorolloutincrementalfeatureupdatestopromoteuserexperienceovertime.PartIV

WordsandExpressionsobsolete

(Para.15)adj.nolongerusefulorneeded;outofdatesynonyms:

outdated;redundant;disposableexample:IntheAIera,humanswillnotbecomeobsoleteinbusinessdecisionsbutwillshifttheirroles.PartIV

WordsandExpressionsreconcile(Para.17)v.tomaketwoideasorgoalsconsistentorcompatiblesynonyms:

balance;alignexample:Whensettingstrategicdirections,leadersmustreconcileAI’sobjectivesuggestionswithcorporatevalues.PartIV

WordsandExpressionsPartV

QuestionsaboutPartVQ1.Whatisthenextphaseofdecision-makingevolution?Shiftingfromdata-driventoAI-drivendecisionmaking.PartV

QuestionsaboutPartVQ2.Whowillbemorelikelytoleadthisevolution?NewlyfoundedcompaniesthatnativelybuildAI–humancollaborationintoworkflows.EmbracingAIinourworkflowsaffordsbetterprocessingofstructureddataandallowsforhumanstocontributeinwaysthatarecomplementary.(Line2,Para.18)UsingAIinworkprocessesimprovesstructureddataprocessingandletshumansprovideunique,supplementaryvalue.PartV

SentenceInterpretationThemoreefficientorganizationswillsurviveathigherrate.(Line4,Para.19)CompaniesthatadoptAI‑drivendecisionmakingandbecomemoreefficienthaveahigherchancetosucceedandpersistinthemarket.PartV

SentenceInterpretationPartV

NotesevolutionbynaturalselectionEvolutionbynaturalselection,proposedbyDarwin,isthecoremechanismofbiologicalevolution.Accordingtothetheory,organismsproducemoreoffspringthancansurvive,andthosewithheritabletraitsbetteradaptedtoenvironmentssurvivelonger,reproducemore,andpassfavorabletraitstofuturegenerations.Overtime,thisprocessdrivesadaptationandspeciation,shapingEarth’sbiodiversity.

TextBStrategicDecisions:WhenCanYouTrustYourGut?StructuralAnalysisPara.MainTopics1-2DanielKahnemanandGaryKleinareataninterviewbytheMcKinseyQuarterlyonthepowerandrisksofusingintuitionindecisionmaking.3-40Thewholeinterviewfocusesonthediscussiononthefollowingtopics:Whenandhowcanintuitionhelpdecisionmaking?(Para.3-19)Theuseof“premortem”techniqueandchecklistindecisionmaking.(Para.20-33)Listeningtointuitionsorstiflingintuitions?(Para.34-40)Q:Whenfacedwithanemergentcase,whichonewillyoutrustmoretohelpyoumakedecisions,reasonorintuition?Theanswermayvaryaswemayneedtomakedecisionsbasedonrationonsomeoccasionswhilemakingintuitiveonesonotheroccasions.PartI

QuestionsaboutPartIgutn.thepatternorbehaviorbasedoninstinctoremotionratherthanreasonsynonyms:

intuition;instinctexample:Let’shaveyourgutreactiontothefactsasweknowthem.PartI

WordsandExpressionsperil(Para.2)n.astateofdangerinvolvingrisksynonyms:

danger;riskexample:Duetothefinancialcrisis,thecountry’seconomyisnowingraveperil.PartI

WordsandExpressionsDanielKahneman(Para.1)DanielKahneman(bornonMarch5,1934)isanIsraeli-Americanpsychologist.Hesharedthe2002NobelMemorialPrizeinEconomicScienceswithVernonL.Smith.Kahnemanisnotableforhisworkonthepsychologyofjudgmentanddecision-making,behavioraleconomicsandhedonicpsychology.PartI

NotesGaryKlein(Para.1)GaryKlein(bornonFebruary5,1944)isaresearchpsychologistfamousforpioneeringinthefieldofnaturalisticdecisionmaking.Bystudyingexpertssuchasfirefightersintheirnaturalenvironment,hediscoveredthatlaboratorymodelsofdecisionmakingcouldnotdescribeitunderuncertainty.HisRecognition-PrimedDecision(RPD)modelhasinfluencedchangesinthewaystheMarinesandArmytraintheirofficerstomakedecisions.PartI

NotesMcKinsey(Para.2)McKinsey&Company,Inc.isanAmericanglobalmanagementconsultingfirmheadquarteredintheU.S.Thefirmservesasanadvisertobusinesses,governments,andinstitutions.Foundedin1926,McKinseyisconsideredoneofthemostprestigiousandmostexpensivemanagementconsultingfirms.Itsinfluenceandpowerinshapingbusinessthroughthe20thcenturyandintomoderndayisunparalleled.McKinseywascitedasthe“mostprestigiousconsultingfirmofall”ina2011NewYorkTimesarticle.PartI

NotesQ1:WhatdoesGarymeanbysaying“youshouldn’ttrustthejudgmentsofstockbrokerspickingindividualstocks”?(Para.7)Undercertainconditions,intuitionsaren’tgoingtobetrustworthyasrecommendationsfromstockbrokerswhosejudgmentsmightbelackofpredictabilityandbeoflowvalidity.PartII

QuestionsaboutPartIIQ2:Whatisthe“premortem”technique?Whataretheadvantagesofit?(Para.21)The“premortem”technique,inessence,isakindofrisk-managementmaneuverthathelpsidentifythepotentialrisksandproblemsthatanorganizationmayencounterinacertainproject.Itcanhelpdecision-makerscomeupwithsolutionstothoseproblems.Itisalow-cost,high-payoffstrategy.PartII

QuestionsaboutPartIIwary(Para.9)adj.markedbykeencautionandwatchfulprudencesynonyms:

suspicious;cautiousexample:Investorsarekeepingawaryeyeonthe3rdquarterfiscalreportofthecompany.PartII

WordsandExpressionsgosour(Para.11)vp.todeteriorateorbecomeunsatisfiedsynonym:

gosouthexample:Insomeways,itisastrangetimeformultinationalstogosouronChina.PartII

WordsandExpressionshindsight(Para.15)n.

theabilitytounderstandthenatureofaneventafterithashappenedantonym:

foresightexample:It’seasytosaynowwhatweshouldhavedonethen—withthewisdomofhindsight!PartII

WordsandExpressionsdither(Para.15)v.tokeepbeingunabletomakeaquickdecisionaboutsomethingsynonyms:

falter;hesitateexample:Ifyouhavebeenditheringaboutbuyingshares,nowcouldbethetimetodoit