摩根士丹利-交易所 现代市场背后低调运转的基础设施 Exchanges the quiet infrastructure behind modern markets

GlobalEquityObserver

Exchanges:thequietinfrastructurebehindmodernmarkets

INVESTMENTINSIGHT|INTERNATIONALEQUITYTEAM|June2026

Therewasatimewhenexchangeswereloud.Brokersshoutedbidsandoffersacrosscrowdedtradingfloors,usinghandsignalstocutthroughthenoise.Today,manyoftheworld’smajorexchangesarealmostsilent,withphysicaltradinglargelyreplacedbymoreefficientelectronicexecution.Yetbeneaththatcalm,modernexchanges

processtrillionsofdollarsofactivityeachday.Theyarenolongersimplymarketplacesbutcriticalfinancialinfrastructureand,inourview,anattractivenicheofhighquality,resilientglobalfranchises.

Astoryofevolution

Overmorethan500years,exchangeshaverepeatedlyadaptedasfinancial

marketshavegrownlargerandmorecomplex.Theyhaveevolvedfromphysicaltoelectronictrading,fromregionalvenuestoglobalnetworks,andfromtransaction-basedbusinessesintodiversified,interconnectedinfrastructureecosystems.

OurholdingIntercontinentalExchange(ICE)illustratesthisevolutionwell.

FoundedinthewakeofEnron’scollapse,itinitiallyfocusedonenergytrading,acceleratedbyitsacquisitionoftheInternationalPetroleumExchange(IPE).WhentheGlobalFinancialCrisisexposedtheopacityofcreditdefaultswaps,ICEexpandedintoclearinghousestohelpcentraliseandmanagerisk.Today,itoperatessixclearinghousesgloballyandanetworkof11exchanges,includingtheNewYorkStockExchange—apowerfulbrandinitsownright.

Morebroadly,exchangeshavesteadilyexpandedbeyondtradingvenuesintodata,clearing,settlement,custodyandworkflowinfrastructure.Alongsidethisshift,revenuestreamshavebecomemorebalancedandincreasingly

recurring,andbarrierstoentrymulti-faceted.

Ahighqualityniche

Selectmodernexchangesexhibitmanyofthecharacteristicsweseek:

sustainablyhighreturnsonoperatingcapital(inthecaseofleadingfuturesexchangeCMEGroup,morethan380%1),strongcashflowgenerationand

1Source:Factset,2026ROOCE.

AUTHOR

RICHARDPERROTTManagingDirector

“Exchangeshaveevolvedinto

criticalmarketinfrastructure,quietly

processing

trillionsindailyactivitywhile

generating

resilient,high-qualityrevenuesfromdeeply

embeddedecosystems.”

2Source:companyreports,InternationalEquityTeamanalysis.Atthetimeofwriting,ICEandCMEGroupareheldinourglobalportfoliosandDeutscheBörseandLSEGinourinternationalportfolios.

2MORGANSTANLEYINVESTMENTMANAGEMENT|INTERNATIONALEQUITY

recurringrevenuessupportedbytheirdeeplyembedded

infrastructurerole.Theyalsobenefitfromtransparent

revenuedrivers—suchascontractstradedinCME’scase—whileremainingrelativelycapitallightbusinesses.Barrierstoentryaresubstantial.Theyincludepowerfulnetwork

effects(inparticularasthenettingofpositionsbyclearinghousesreducesmarginrequirements),entrenchedbrandsinlistingsandindices,contractexclusivity,andsignificantregulatory,technologicalandcybersecurityrequirements.

Scalealsomatters;liquiditytendstoattractliquidity.CME

Grouphandlesbillionsoffuturesandoptionscontracts

annually;ICEtransactshalfoftheworld’scrudeandrefinedoilfuturestrading;DeutscheBörse’sClearstreamsafeguardsover20trillionofeurosinassets;andLondonStock

ExchangeGroup’s(LSEG)infrastructureanddatasystems

sitinsidethedailyworkflowsoffinancialinstitutions.2

Importantly,noexchangebusinessisidentical.Thesefour

playersoperatenichenear-monopoliesindistinctareas,

socompetitionbetweenthemisrelativelylimited(outside

equitiesatleast).Theirdifferentexposures,endmarketsandstrengthsallowustoholddifferentiatedbusinessesalongsideeachotherinourglobalandinternationalportfolios.

Nottoohot,nottoocold

Exchangespossessanattractiveelementofasymmetry.

Theybenefitfromactivityand,byextension,areasonable

degreeofmarketvolatility.ThecurrentU.S./IsraeliconflictwithIran,forexample,hascontributedtoincreasedenergyandfixedincometradingvolumes.Thatsaid,exchanges

generallyfavourGoldilocksenvironments,neithertoohotortoocold—ineffectneithertoostressednortoocalm.Somevolatilitysupportstradingactivity,butexchangesultimatelydependonmarketsfunctioningeffectively.Importantly,

exchangeshavebecomemoreresilientovertimethrough

broaderincomestreams,greaterassetdiversificationandlessdependenceonanysinglemarketdynamicthanhistorically.

AIdisruptionoracceleration?

Overthepastyear,manyexchangeshavebeendrawn

intobroaderinvestorconcernsthatartificialintelligence

(AI)coulddisruptdataandsoftwareecosystems.Inour

assessment,disruptionriskappearsrelativelylimitedforcoreinfrastructurebusinessessuchaslistings,trading,clearing

andsettlement.Exchangesofferanessentialliquidity

networkandarecentraltopricediscoveryandrisktransfer.

Foroperatorswithlargeranalyticsorworkflowbusinessesoutsidethecoreexchanges,disruptionriskmaybe

somewhathigher.However,muchoftheunderlyingdataisproprietary—particularlypricingdatageneratedfrom

theirowntradingvenues—andcannoteasilybereplicatedbyagentsinrealtime.Exchangesmayultimatelybenefitbymonetisingthatdatamoreeffectively.

Therearealsopotentialopportunitiestoharness.Asignificantproportionoftradingactivityisalreadyquantitativelydriven,andwiderAIadoptionacrossfinancialmarketscouldincreasedemandfordata,analyticsandtradingactivity.NewAItoolsmayalsosupportthedevelopmentofnewtrading,arbitrageandriskmanagementstrategies.

Partnershipmodelsarealsobeginningtoemerge.LSEGhashadalong-standingpartnershipwithMicrosoft,whileCMEandDeutscheBörsehavepartneredwithAlphabet.Such

collaborationsmayhelpdisplacefearsthatlargelanguagemodels(LLMs)areseekingtoreplaceincumbents;instead,theymayprovidetheexchangeswithanotherdistributionavenue—andopportunitytomonetisetheirdata.Itremainsearly,butmarketsappearalittlemorewillingtotaketheseconsiderationsintoaccountanddifferentiatebetween

businesses.Inourview,understandingthesenuancesmatters,asdoesbackingmanagementteamsthatareproactivelyadaptingandmonetisingAI.

Thenextphaseofmarketinfrastructure

Leadingexchangeshaverepeatedlyadaptedwithoutlosing

relevance.Newtechnologiescontinuetocreateopportunities:

tradingmaybecomeincreasinglydigitisedinlessliquid

assetclasses;funddistributioncontinuestomodernise;andblockchainandtokenisationcouldenablefastertransactions,moderniseprocessessuchasclearingandsettlementaswellasexpandparticipationandaccess.RecentU.S.regulatory

approvalofperpetualfutures,popularindigitalcurrenciesandanattractivemethodoftradingforretailinvestors

particularly,sawanimmediatederatingofsomeexchanges.Thisisadevelopmentwewillmonitor,thoughourcurrentanalysispointstoalikelygreaterusecaseinretailmarketsandwewouldquestionitssuitabilityininstitutionalmarkets,wherewebelievethemoatremainsdurable.

Asregulationsandtechnologiesevolve,webelieve

exchanges’strongnetworkeffects,combinedwith

participants’regulatory,securityandlegalrequirements,

shouldprotecttheirmoats.Theexchangeshavealreadybeentakingstepstoinvestininnovation:forinstance,exploring

blockchaintechnologytohelpclientsmanagecollateralmoreefficiently,whileNYSEhasannouncedatokenisedsecuritiesplatform.Thissitsalongsidedeeperliquidityandongoing

growthinexistingproductsandmarkets—forexample,futuresvolumescontinuetoexpandglobally.

Throughouttheirhistory,successfulexchangeshaveabsorbedtechnologicalchangeratherthanbeendisplacedbyit.Aswelookahead,webelievenewtechnologiesaremorelikelyto

expandtheecosystemsofleadingexchangesthanundermine

them.Exchangesremaintheessentialplumbingofglobal

financialmarkets,operatingvenuesformarketparticipantstotransact,accessliquidityandmanagerisk.Assetclasstrendsmaychange,marketparticipantsmaywinorlose,andvolatilitymayriseorfall,butthecriticalinfrastructureenablingthosetransactionsshouldcontinuetocollectthetolls.

RiskConsiderations

Thereisnoassurancethataportfoliowillachieveitsinvestmentobjective.Portfoliosaresubjecttomarketrisk,whichisthepossibility

thatthemarketvalueofsecuritiesownedbytheportfoliowilldecline.Marketvaluescanchangedailyduetoeconomicandotherevents(e.g.naturaldisasters,healthcrises,terrorism,conflictsandsocialunrest)thataffectmarkets,countries,companiesorgovernments.Itis

difficulttopredictthetiming,duration,andpotentialadverseeffects(e.g.portfolioliquidity)ofevents.Accordingly,youcanlosemoney

investinginthisstrategy.Pleasebeawarethatthisstrategymaybesubjecttocertainadditionalrisks.Changesintheworldwideeconomy,consumerspending,competition,demographicsandconsumerpreferences,governmentregulationandeconomicconditionsmayadverselyaffectglobalfranchisecompaniesandmaynegativelyimpactthestrategytoagreaterextentthanifthestrategy’sassetswereinvestedinawidervarietyofcompanies.Ingeneral,equitysecurities’valuesalsofluctuateinresponsetoactivitiesspecifictoacompany.Investmentsinforeignmarketsentailspecialriskssuchascurrency,political,economic,andmarketrisks.Stocksofsmall-andmid-capitalisation

companiescarryspecialrisks,suchaslimitedproductlines,marketsandfinancialresources,andgreatermarketvolatilitythansecuritiesoflarger,moreestablishedcompanies.Therisksofinvestinginemergingmarketcountriesaregreaterthanrisksassociatedwithinvestmentsinforeigndevelopedmarkets.Derivativeinstrumentsmaydisproportionatelyincreaselossesandhaveasignificantimpactonperformance.Theyalsomaybesubjecttocounterparty,liquidity,valuation,correlationandmarketrisks.Illiquidsecuritiesmaybemoredifficulttosellandvaluethanpubliclytradedsecurities(liquidityrisk).Non-diversifiedportfoliosofteninvestinamorelimitednumberofissuers.Assuch,changesinthefinancialconditionormarketvalueofasingleissuermaycausegreatervolatility.ESGstrategiesthatincorporateimpact

investingand/orEnvironmental,SocialandGovernance(ESG)factorscouldresultinrelativeinvestmentperformancedeviatingfromotherstrategiesorbroadmarketbenchmarks,dependingonwhethersuchsectorsorinvestmentsareinoroutoffavorinthemarket.Asaresult,thereisnoassuranceESGstrategiescouldresultinmorefavorableinvestmentperformance.

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