银行业资金面跟踪：2Q26主动基金持仓环比下降被动资金流出压力边际趋缓

主动基金重仓银行股市值（亿元）占主动基金重仓比重9.364.633.7542 1.100图2：主动基金重仓银行股市值（亿元）占主动基金重仓比重9.364.633.7542 1.1001,200 6%1,000 5%800 4%600 3%400 2%200 1%1Q202Q201Q202Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q2420241Q252Q253Q254Q251Q262Q26图4：2026年2季度末各板块主动基金重仓持股占比（%）2026年2季度各板块机构持仓占比5040302010电子电子基础化工有色金属交通运输石油石化农林牧渔电力及公用…建筑商贸零售图5：2026年2季度各板块主动基金重仓持股占比季度环比变化（%）2026年2季度各板块机构持仓占比季度环比变化（）2520151050电子建材电子建材机械房地产石油石化交通运输电力设备及新能源2Q2642.763.2132.317.20.18%、0.27%0.57%、0.07%1Q260.14pct、0.32pct0.33pct、0.09pct。2Q260.25%、0.19%、0.10%、0.07%、0.06%60%1.3pct24图6：2026年2季度各类银行重仓持股比例均环比下降 图7：2026年2季度主动基金持仓集中度环比小幅上升国有行 股份行 城商行 农商行4

机构持仓市值前五的银行合计占板块比重（）3 80602401 203Q102Q111Q123Q102Q111Q124Q123Q132Q141Q154Q153Q162Q171Q184Q183Q192Q201Q214Q213Q222Q231Q244Q243Q252Q261Q202Q203Q201Q202Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q2420241Q252Q253Q254Q251Q262Q26表1：A股上市银行2026年2季度末主动基金重仓持股市值、占比主动基金持仓市值（亿）主动基金持仓占比主动基金持仓市值（亿）主动基金持仓占比上市银行 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26 季度环比 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26 季度环比上市银行3Q254Q251Q262Q26季度环比3Q254Q251Q262Q26季度环比国有行股份行城商行农商行银行

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15.269.617.084.863.152.7843.586.496.244.640.940.750.210.200.1657.1424.0813.189.598.765.845.334.682.060.690.350.330.230.00-13.003.940.150.040.030.03--97.28125.4930.26255.40

-5.71-0.152.01-3.76-2.560.66-19.73-2.60-5.06-5.570.21-0.790.120.190.09-4.570.73-4.812.493.61-2.17-0.94-1.050.54-2.61-0.58-3.430.04-0.14-0.03-5.28-1.40-1.63-0.160.02-0.09-0.31-9.400.79-64.14

0.10%0.04%0.02%0.03%0.02%0.01%0.43%0.01%0.02%0.07%0.00%0.05%0.00%0.01%0.00%0.23%0.13%0.15%0.02%0.03%0.18%0.04%0.02%0.01%0.01%0.00%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.11%0.06%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.63%0.93%1.25%0.20%1.82%

0.11%0.08%0.06%0.03%0.03%0.01%0.43%0.01%0.07%0.04%0.00%0.05%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.32%0.11%0.11%0.04%0.03%0.05%0.04%0.02%0.02%0.02%0.00%0.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.11%0.06%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.59%1.25%1.81%0.24%1.89%

0.13%0.06%0.03%0.05%0.04%0.01%0.39%0.06%0.07%0.06%0.00%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.38%0.14%0.11%0.04%0.03%0.05%0.04%0.04%0.01%0.02%0.01%0.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.11%0.03%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.23%0.60%0.83%0.18%1.98%

0.07%0.04%0.03%0.02%0.01%0.01%0.19%0.03%0.03%0.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.25%0.10%0.06%0.04%0.04%0.03%0.02%0.02%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.06%0.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.22%0.42%0.54%0.13%1.10%

-0.06%-0.02%0.00%-0.03%-0.02%0.00%-0.20%-0.03%-0.04%-0.04%0.00%-0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%-0.14%-0.04%-0.05%0.00%0.01%-0.02%-0.02%-0.02%0.00%-0.02%0.00%-0.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%-0.06%-0.02%-0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-0.02%-0.18%-0.30%-0.05%-0.88%被动基金：进一步减持空间有限，资金面压力接近尾声上半年宽基ETFETF12ETFETF300、505001000A5009236158212221508亿、-78%-86%-63%-83%37%30050ETF14523506.8%，成为压制银行板块表现的重要资金因素。6300ETF、50ETF20002000.8%7300ETFETF图8：2026年上半年主要宽基ETF资金阶段性流出（单位：亿元）7654247654244029(28)(438)(258)(490)(129)(99)(446) (445)(580)(782)(480)(403)(178)(1,072)(1,595)(3,806)(3,810)0-4,0002026-01-092026-01-162026-01-232026-01-302026-02-062026-02-132026-02-272026-03-062026-03-132026-03-202026-03-272026-04-032026-04-102026-04-172026-04-242026-04-302026-05-082026-05-152026-05-222026-05-292026-06-052026-06-122026-06-182026-06-262026-06-30-5,0002026-01-092026-01-162026-01-232026-01-302026-02-062026-02-132026-02-272026-03-062026-03-132026-03-202026-03-272026-04-032026-04-102026-04-172026-04-242026-04-302026-05-082026-05-152026-05-222026-05-292026-06-052026-06-122026-06-182026-06-262026-06-30注：样本宽基ETF为跟踪沪深300、中证A500、上证50、中证500、中证1000的ETF图9：7月中旬以来，沪深300ETF资金已由前期持续净流出转向净流入（单位：亿元）沪深300ETF净流出情况（日度）400.00沪深300ETF净流出情况（日度）200.00-(200.00)(400.00)2026-01-052026-01-082026-01-052026-01-082026-01-132026-01-162026-01-212026-01-262026-01-292026-02-032026-02-062026-02-112026-02-242026-02-272026-03-042026-03-092026-03-122026-03-172026-03-202026-03-252026-03-302026-04-022026-04-082026-04-132026-04-162026-04-212026-04-242026-04-292026-05-072026-05-122026-05-152026-05-202026-05-252026-05-282026-06-022026-06-052026-06-102026-06-152026-06-182026-06-242026-06-292026-07-022026-07-072026-07-102026-07-152026-07-20北向资金：连续四个季度减持银行股2Q26末，北向资金持有A141.28.10pc173%103694920903表2：A股上市银行北向资金持股数、占自由流通市值比重上市银行 北向资金持股数（亿股） 北向资金持股占自由流通股数比重（%）3Q25 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26 季度环比 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26 季度环比国有行股份行城商行农商行

15.6514.438.8810.215.775.2011.187.0710.8412.856.585.954.503.403.887.762.816.635.372.402.572.401.051.280.740.721.030.470.680.660.490.482.681.380.950.941.050.690.980.430.840.1560.1466.2537.5510.09

-0.12-0.581.09-1.26-0.58-0.62-1.011.66-0.36-0.54-0.410.30-1.710.40-0.35-0.980.81-1.35-0.98-0.320.30-0.11-0.06-0.210.09-0.24-0.180.04-0.08-0.14-0.09-0.200.85-0.420.07-0.07-0.04-0.08-0.15-0.17-0.11-2.07-2.02-3.70-0.36-8.14

5.02%5.04%7.27%4.44%8.69%5.04%9.54%8.67%6.76%5.28%4.35%5.31%8.83%8.72%2.71%5.86%8.53%4.53%5.84%4.30%11.67%4.89%4.50%3.41%6.29%1.94%3.75%6.82%5.72%1.40%2.66%1.27%5.10%2.48%3.41%5.39%2.54%4.12%3.45%1.59%4.32%0.99%5.37%6.03%4.75%3.40%5.27%

5.59%4.73%7.29%3.87%9.38%5.13%11.54%7.70%5.40%3.89%4.07%4.15%8.12%5.59%2.21%5.22%9.72%3.05%5.14%4.78%7.12%4.01%4.23%2.72%5.90%2.53%3.93%7.48%4.87%1.00%1.58%1.23%6.03%2.69%2.59%4.85%2.16%4.49%3.44%1.18%2.68%1.21%5.39%5.23%4.12%3.26%4.84%

4.85%4.23%6.29%3.89%10.34%4.22%11.31%6.99%4.18%2.73%3.53%3.82%11.62%4.68%2.05%4.52%9.40%3.30%4.74%4.79%7.83%3.89%4.72%3.20%4.93%2.45%2.82%7.54%4.52%1.02%2.07%1.17%6.88%2.89%2.39%4.47%1.78%4.09%2.28%1.63%2.11%1.45%4.92%4.72%4.00%3.35%4.49%

4.81%4.02%7.19%3.34%9.47%2.38%10.36%9.03%3.96%2.51%3.26%4.07%8.25%5.49%1.81%3.86%11.73%2.37%3.67%4.19%9.20%3.67%4.47%2.64%5.66%1.81%2.20%8.12%3.84%0.73%1.55%0.62%8.50%2.14%2.37%3.68%1.68%3.52%1.06%1.23%0.73%4.52%4.53%3.54%3.15%4.17%

-0.04%-0.20%0.89%-0.55%-0.87%-1.83%-0.95%2.04%-0.23%-0.22%-0.27%0.25%-3.36%0.82%-0.24%-0.66%2.33%-0.93%-1.07%-0.60%1.37%-0.22%-0.25%-0.56%0.73%-0.64%-0.62%0.58%-0.67%-0.29%-0.52%-0.54%1.61%-0.76%-0.02%-0.79%-0.10%-0.56%-1.16%-0.57%-0.87%-0.72%-0.40%-0.18%-0.46%-0.20%-0.32%保险资金：继续增持银行股，城商行板块关注度提升20261-53.192.395%39.449.73%，0.02pct。图1：2026年-5月原保险保费收入4增长 图1：126末保险资金运用余额944万亿700006000050000400003000020000100000

原保险保费收入:累计（亿） 同比增速502022-022022-042022-062022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-062023-082023-102023-122024-022024-042024-062024-082024-102024-122025-022025-042025-062025-082025-102025-122026-022026-04

保险业:资金运用余额万亿） 股票占比45 4035 83025 620 41510 252022-062022-092022-122022-062022-092022-122023-032023-062023-092023-122024-032024-062024-092024-122025-032025-062025-092025-122026-03、国家金融监管总在市场偏成长的风格下，2026年险资继续增持银行股，城商行板块关注度提升。1Q267.48%；A2025二季度险资继续增持HH-H4.32pct26.39%商银行-H0.48pct25.72%。10年期国债收益率溢价表3：1Q26险企增持A股银行情况（前十大股东口径） 图12：1Q26银行前十大股东险资持股数及占比继续上升上市银行险企1Q26持股比例上市银行险企1Q26持股比例环比变化工商银行中国人寿0.410.08中国银行中国人寿0.200.15新华人寿0.05新进太平人寿0.05新进邮储银行新华人寿0.09新进中信银行中国人寿2.170.54兴业银行瑞众人寿2.69新进南京银行中国人寿2.860.03上海银行中国人寿2.82新进江苏银行中国人寿2.14新进杭州银行中国人寿2.89新进常熟银行东吴人寿3.330.39瑞丰银行长城人寿4.10新进300250200150100-

占自由流通股份比重 422024-032024-062024-092024-122025-032025-062025-092025-122026-0302024-032024-062024-092024-122025-032025-062025-092025-122026-03 图13：上市银行2026E股息率及PB估值（截至2026-7-21）1.00.90.80.70.60.50.40.30.20.10交邮工农建中华兴光平民招中浦浙上北成江南长苏杭齐重宁兰厦青西沪江张渝苏无瑞青常紫通储商业设国夏业大安生商信发商海京都苏京沙州州鲁庆波州门岛安农阴家农农锡丰农熟金银银银银银银银银银银银银银银银银银银银银银银银银银银银银银银商银港商银银银商银银行行行行行行行行行行行行行行行行行行行行行行行行行行行行行行行行行行行行行行行行国有行 股份行 城商行 农商行图14：重点上市银行股息率处于近一年较高位置重点上市银行 国有行 股份行 城商行6.50%6.00%5.50%5.00%4.50%4.00%3.50%2024-012024-022024-032024-012024-022024-032024-042024-052024-062024-072024-082024-092024-102024-112024-122025-012025-022025-032025-042025-052025-062025-072025-082025-092025-102025-112025-122026-012026-022026-032026-042026-052026-062026-07ind 股息率=wind一致预期每股股利(FY1)/收盘价）投资建议AAH7月中旬以来成长板块波动调整，部分资金切换至红利低波板块，稳市大型资金入场托底，沪深300ETF+PB0.6510图15：银行PB估值处于历史底部区间

PB 均值 标准差（+1） 标准差（-1） 收盘价（右轴）0图16：上市银行PB（LF）-ROE上海中行农行上海中行农行工行交行建行贵阳重庆长沙西安成都杭州江阴兰州宁波紫金厦门无锡北京瑞丰邮储张家港 青农齐鲁渝农光大苏州郑州沪农民生平安 常熟兴业华夏中信南京浙商青岛0.80PB(LF)0.60PB(LF)0.400.203% 6% 9%