2026万亿美元级难题人工智能数据中心如何获取社会许可洞察报告-英文版

The$1TNproblem

WinningsociallicenseforAIdatacenters

May2026

Contents

01Foreword03

02

ExecutiveSummary

04

03

ImpactofPublicOppositiononDataCenterDevelopment

05

04

DriversofCommunityOpposition

09

05

RoleofStakeholderEngagementinProjectOutcomes

13

06

BuildingSocialLicensetoDeliverProjects

17

07

WhyTeneo

21

Section01

Foreword

ZacharyKaplan

ManagingDirector

zachary.kaplan@

JosephFaddoul

SeniorDirector

Joseph.faddoul@

DanielMartinko

AssociateDirector

daniel.martinko@

DanGabaldon

ViceChair,Management

ConsultingandHeadofEnergy

dan.gabaldon@

Morethan$1trillionisexpectedtoflowintoAlinfrastructureoverthenextfiveyears,muchofitintodatacenters,yetthisbuild-outisincreasinglyconstrainedbysocial

license.publicoppositionhasalreadycontributedto$64billionofblockedordelayed

U.s.data

centerprojectsinthelasttwoyears,turningcommunityacceptanceintoacriticalpathissuethatcandelayorderailprojectsandputbillionsofdollarsatrisk.

Forasingle$10billiondatacenterproject,evenasix-monthdelaycancostapproximately$900

millionto$1.3billion,whilecancellationcanlockin$1.5billionto$2billioninlosses.Theseriskstendtoariseatpredictablestagesofthedevelopmentprocess,particularlyduringpermittingandapprovals,whereweakstakeholderengagementcantranslateintodelays,cancellationsandsignificantcost

overruns.However,theycanbemitigatedthroughtheearlyanddeliberateintegrationofcommunityengagement,socio-economicstrategy,publicandgovernmentaffairsandenergyplanningintoprojectdesignandexecution.

Thispapersetsoutapracticalapproachtomitigatingtheserisksthroughtheearlyanddeliberateintegrationofcommunityengagement,socio-economicstrategy,publicandgovernmentaffairsandenergyplanningintoprojectdesignandexecution.

TheperspectivesandrecommendationsoutlinedinthispaperaregroundedinTeneo’sexperiencesupportingcompaniesastheynavigatethecomplexitiesofenteringnewmarkets,developing

infrastructureandintroducingnoveltechnologiesincommunitiesacrosstheUnitedStatesandglobally.

Teneσ3

Teneσ4

Section03:ExecutiveSummary

Billionsofdollarsareatriskindatacenterdevelopment–byengagingstakeholdersproactivelyandearly,developerscande-riskdelivery.

02

03

01

Problem

Solution

Halfofallplannedprojectsare

delayedorcancelled,with77%ofimpactsoccurringduringthe

permittingandapprovalsprocESS.

Delaysareconcentratedearlyinthe

developmentprocess,whereweak

engagementallowsconcernstohardenintoorganizedopposition.

Communitiesandpolicymakersare

increasinglyfocusedonenergyprices,wateruseandenvironmentalimpacts,directlyleadingtodeniedpermitsandre-zoningchallenges.

Moreinformedaudiencesaremore

negative,suggestingthatdevelopersmaynotyetbeeffectivelycommunicating

projectbenefitstostakeholders.

over$1trillioninAlinfrastructurespendingiscollidingwithrisingpublicopposition,putting

timelines,deploymentandcosts(+10%)atrisk.

Morethan$1trillionwillbeinvestedinAIinfrastructureoverthenextfiveyears,withmuchofitspentondatacenters.

However,publicoppositionisrising,

translatingintorealprojectriskasdelaysandcancellationsbecomemorefrequent.

Evenasix-monthdelayona$10Bprojectcancost~$900millionto$1.3billion,

whileacancelledprojectcanresultinlossesof~$1.5to$2billion.

Theimplicationsextendbeyondpurecost.

U.S.leadershipinAIisalsoatrisk.

Context

Datacenterdeveloperscanavoiddelaysandsave

billionsbybuildingsociallicenseearly.Developersmust:

1.Engagecommunitiesearlyandcontinuously.Developersshouldproactivelyengagecommunitiesacrossthefullprojectlifecycleandshouldnottreatengagementasa‘check-the-box’exercise.

2.Designandimplementclearsocio-economicbenefitprograms

andmitigationsaspartofthevalueproposition.Theseshouldbedesignedinpartnershipwithcommunities,withbenefitsand

mitigationsintegratedasacoreelementofprojectdesign.

3.Proactivelyaddressthedatacenterenergychallenge.Deploy

innovativesolutionstodirectlyaddressenergyusageconcernsandtoinsulatecommunitiesfromcostimpacts.

Investingbetween0.03%–0.05%oftotalprojectcostintargeted

communityengagementandinvestmentactivitiescanmitigateriskofbillionsinlossesbydeliveringvisiblecommunitybenefits

Teneointegratessocio-economicexpertise,strategiccommunications

andenergy&infrastructurecapabilitiestosecureapprovals,deliverviableprojectsandprotectbillionsinvalue.

Section03

5

ImpactofPublicOppositiononDataCenterDevelopment

Therapidbuild-outofAIdatacentersisincreasinglycollidingwithrising

communityandpoliticalopposition,

resultingintensofbillionsofdollarsindelaysorcancellations.

Teneσ6

Context

Eveninlowcasescenarios,morethan$1trillionisexpectedtobespentondatacenterconstructionthroughto2030,drivenbygrowingAIdemand.

DatacenterGWcapacityis

expectedtonearlydoubleby2030,drivenbydemandforAItrainingandinferenceservices.

Keylocationsfornew

constructionandinvestmentin

theU.S.includeVirginia,

Texas,Ohio,Georgiaand

Arizona.

U.S.infrastructureinvestmenttosupportexpecteddatacentercapacityincreases¹

CountofGWsandinfrastructureinvestment

Key

Infrastructure

investment(basecase)

Infrastructure

investment(bearcase)

Infrastructure

investment(bullcase)

$380B

$300B

$250B

$430B

$330B

$260B

$470B

$355B

$275B

$500B

$375B

$285B

$520B

$390B

$290B

Cumulativecapexdeployed(2026-)

Datacenterpowerdemand

2026

$300B

76GW

2027

$630B

92GW

2028

$985B

108GW

2029

$1,360B

121GW

2030

$1,750B

134GW

Source(s):JLL;S&PGlobal;Teneoresearch&analysis|Notes(s):1.Infrastructureinvestmentfiguresaredirectionalestimates,basedonestimateddatacentercapacitydemandfrom2026-2030andcostperMWordatacenterdevelopment;perMWcostestimatesthecostofphysicalinfrastructureinvestmentandexcludescostsrelatedtoGPUandnetworkinginfrastructure

Teneσ7

ImpactofDelaysandCancellations

Teneoestimatesthatprojectdelaysresultingfromsociallicenseissuescanaddmorethan10%(>$1billion)tototalcostsforalarge-scaledatacenter,whilecancellationcanlockinadditionallosses.

CostsincurredwhenCostsincurredwhen

projectcanceledprojectdelayed

Totalcost

Internaland

externallabor

costsfor

managingand

advancingthe

project

Higherlabor,

materialsand

equipment

costsafter

inflationduring

delays

Lostrevenue

andmarket

sharefrom

delayed

capacity

deployment

Feesand

expensesfor

permits,

applications,

andapprovals

Upfrontdesign,

planningand

engineering

costsbefore

cancellation

Expensesforsitestudies,environmental reviewsandassessments

Riskoflosing

interconnection

slotorfacing

poweraccess

delays

Foregone

profitsas

capacity

remainsoffline

duringdelays

Prepayments

forequipment

ordersthatmay

benon-

refundable

Capitalspent

onlandnotfully

recoveredafter

cancellation

Opportunity

costofcapital

tiedupinstead

ofdeployed

$9m$75m

$136m

$18m

$35m

$400m$55m

$30m

$150m

$75m

$9m$136m

Financialimpactofprojectdelaysandcancellations1

LostCompute

Contribution

Margin

Construction

Escalation

Impact

Capital

Allocation

Cost

Expected

Strategic

RevenueRisk

Expected

PowerQueue

Risk

Front-end

engineering

anddesign

costs

Duediligence

costs

Land

acquisition

costs

Longleaditem

costs

Permitting

submission

costs

Project

development

teamlabor

$438m

$400m

$1,058m

whileno

atriska

timmediatelndmayultim

yrealizeddatelybeinc

uringdelays

urredifproj

,thesecostectsareaba

sremainndoned

$438m

$400m

$1,745m

Source(s):Teneoresearchandanalysis|Note(s):1.Midpointfigureshavebeenused;cancellationfiguresareaftera6-monthdelay,assumingpowerhasbeensecured.Coreassumptionsbasedonmodeleddelaysandcancellationofa$10Bcapexdatacenterproject.

PublicOppositionImpact

$18B

worthofdatacenterprojectswereblockedbetweenMay2024andMarch2025.

$46B

worthofprojectsweredelayed.

$64billionofdatacenterprojectsintheU.S.havebeenblockedor

delayedinthelasttwoyears

alonebecauseofpublic

opposition,negativelyimplicating

economicgrowthandU.S.AIleadership.

142

activistgroupspushingbackondatacenterdevelopmentacross24statesintheU.S.

31,000

signaturesonpetitions

againstdatacenter

developmentsince2022.

Source(s):DataCenterWatch

Teneσ8

9

Section04

DriversofCommunityOpposition

Environmental,energyandquality-of-life

concernsarefrontofmindfor

communities,whilebenefitsareless

understood,fuelingopposition,shaping

permittingoutcomesandultimatelydrivingbillionsofdollarsindelays.

Teneσ10

PublicPerception

Delaysandcancellationsareincreasinglydrivenbycommunityperceptionsthatthecostsoutweighthepotentialbenefits.

$

1

2

Potentialbenefits

Economic

Jobcreation

Localfiscalimpactfromtax

revenues

Majorcommunityconcernswithdatacenterdevelopment

Perceivedcosts

so0·。

V

Environmental

1

Airquality

Wateruse

2

3

Landuse

Qualityoflife

Dustduringconstruction

2

Noiseduringconstructionandoperations

3

Changedvisualenvironmentandcommunitycharacter

Energy

1

Perceptionofincreasedhouseholdenergyprices

Source(s):PewResearchCenter,DataCenterWatch,DataCenterDynamics,WallStreetJournal,WYEDC

PublicPerception

Teneσ11

Publicawarenessisdominatedbyperceivedcosts,andmoreinformedaudiencesaremorenegative,signalingaclearfailurebydeveloperstocommunicatebenefitseffectively.

Publicsentimentskewsnegative,withmanyremaininguninformed

Viewsofdatacenters’impactinvariousareas,%ofU.S.adults1

Asawarenessincreases,perceptionsbecomemorenegativeacrosskeyimpactareas

Theenvironment

Homeenergycosts

People’squalityoflifenearby

Localjobs

Localtax

revenue

Key

Mostlybad

NeithergoodnorbadMostlygood

39%

38%

30%

15%

12%

14%

10%

17%

17%

12%

4%

6%

6%

25%

23%

Notsure

17%

21%

22%

17%

27%

Highuncertaintymeansopinionsarenotyetfixedandcanbeinfluenced

Theenvironment

Homeenergycosts

People’squalityoflifenearby

Localjobs

Localtax

revenue

39%63%

38%67%

30%51%

15%26%

12%23%

Surveyfindingsindicatethat

respondentsreportinghigher

awarenesslevelsalsoexpressed

morenegativeperceptionsacross

severalcategories,withdetractors

currentlyabletospreadtheir

messagemoreeffectively.

020406080

%ofAmericanssurveyed

Key

%whohaveheard‘alot’aboutdatacentersandhave‘mostlybad’views%ofallrespondentswith‘mostlybad’viewsofdatacenters

Source(s):PewResearchCenter;Teneoresearch&analysis|Note(s):1.Figuresexcludethosewhodidnotanswerandthosewhohavenotheardaboutdatacenters

Teneσ12

ElectricityPriceIncreases

Forinstance,risingelectricitypricesareoftenattributedtodatacenters,butevidencesuggeststhatbroaderfactorsaredrivingpriceincreases.

Thereispublicperceptionthatdatacentersaredrivinguphouseholdenergycosts…

…andhouseholdenergypricesareindeedrising

Residentialenergyprices2019-2025,nominalcents/kWh(notinflationadjusted)

33%

increase

17.3

13.0

20192025

Source(s):LawrenceBerkeleyNationalLaboratory,Teneoresearchandanalysis

However,loadgrowthcanservetodecreaseprices

Loadgrowthvs.averageenergypricechangesbystate,2019-2025

Pricechange(cents/kWh)

CA7

6

ME5Stateswiththehighestload

growthhavegenerallyseen

4flatordecliningretailelectricityprices(inreal

3terms)2

1OR

0TX

-10010AZ20VA

-1

-2IA

NE

Key

Datacentergrowthrelative

tostateloadin2019LowGrowth

MediumGrowthHighGrowth

VeryHighGrowth

Stateload(TWh/year)

10

100

200

Loadgrowth(%)

304050

NM

ND

-3

-4

.Thereisnoclearpositiverelationshipbetweenloadgrowthandelectricitypriceincreases

.Instead,otherfactorshavecontributedtoelectricitypriceincreases,includinginfrastructureinvestmentandbroaderfuelpricevolatility

.Researchshowsloadgrowthonlydrivesenergypricesifoperatorsdonotadditionallyinvestinsupplyanddistributioninparallel

13

Section05

RoleofStakeholderEngagementin

ProjectOutcomes

Earlystakeholderengagementisacriticaldriverofdatacenteroutcomes,withearly-stageengagementdeterminingwhether

projectssecureapprovalsorfacedelaysandcancellation,resultinginbillionsofdollarsinadditionalcosts.

Teneσ14

DevelopmentProcess

Datacenterdevelopmenttypicallyfollowsfivestages,fromsiteselectionthroughtocommissioningandoperationallaunch.

Datacenterdevelopmentprocess

12345

Permitting®ulatoryapproval

Siteidentification&landacquisition

Commissioning&startup

Feasibility&duediligence

Design&

construction

Identifyandsecuresuitablelandbasedonproximitytopower,fiberanddemandcenters.

Assesstechnical,economicandregulatoryviability,

includingpoweravailability,wateraccess,

environmentalconstraints

andpublicreceptivenesstodatacenterdevelopment,andconductearly

engineeringanddesign,long-leaditem

procurement,secure

financingandnegotiateofftakearrangements.

Obtainzoning,

environmentaland

constructionapprovalsfromlocal,stateandfederal

authoritiesasappropriateandadvanceengineeringanddesign.

Finalizedesign,secure

equipment(e.g.,

transformers,servers)andexecuteconstructionofthefacility.

Testsystems,connecttopowerinfrastructureandbringcapacityonlineforoperationaluse.

DevelopmentProcess

TO15

Delaysandcancellationsresultingfrompublicoppositionmostlyariseinthefirstthreephases,mostnotablywhendevelopersseekpermittingandregulatoryapproval

Percentageofprojectswhicharedelayedorcanceledateachphaseofthedevelopmentprocess

%ofprojectfailure

3%20%

77%

Stages1-2:Projectsoftenfailduetolimitedunderstandingof

stakeholderconcernsandweakcommunityengagement,driving

localopposition.

Stage3:Mostdelaysandcancellationsoccurhere,particularlyduring

there-zoningorspecialusepermit(SUP)process.

Post-Stage3:OncepermitsaresecuredinStage3,projectsare

unlikelytobedelayedorcanceled.

0%0%

1

2345

Siteidentification&landacquisition

Keystakeholders

Stakeholdersneededforearlylegitimacyandlandusealignment:

.Localgovernmentofficials

.Landowners

Feasibility&duediligence

Stakeholdersneededfor

credibilityonpower,

resourceuseandimpacts:

.Utilities&infrastructureproviders

.Communitymembersandorganizations

Permitting®ulatoryapproval

Stakeholdersneededforapprovalandpublic

acceptance:

.Regulators

.Communitymembersandorganizations

.Stateandlocalgovernmentofficials

Design&

construction

Stakeholdersneededfordeliverycredibilityduringconstruction:

.Localworkforce

.Businesses

.Residents/nearneighbors

Commissioning&startup

Stakeholdersneededforfinalvalidationbeforeoperations:

.Utilities

.Regulators

.Residents/nearneighbors

Source(s):DataCenterWatch,Teneoresearchandanalysison~30datacenterprojectsthatweredelayedorcanceled.

Teneσ16

CommunityEngagement

Forthatreason,earlyandproactivestakeholder

engagementisacriticaldriverofdevelopersuccess.

Datacenterdevelopmentprocess

12Siteidentification&

SomeLimited

Material

stakeholder

engagement

stakeholder

engagement

stakeholder

engagement

landacquisition

Marketdemandscan

Power&fiberscreening

Zoning&landusecheck

Political&

communityscan

Utilitypre-engagement

Siteshortlist&scoring

Environmental

scan

Landnegotiation&control

Materialstakeholder

engagementiscriticalfor

projectsuccessinStages1-3

Feasibility&duediligence

Earlyfront-endengineering

Projectphasingplan

Powerstudy

Water&coolingfeasibility

Conceptdesign&layout

Cost&ROI

modeling

Geotechnical

surveys

Environmental

assessments

Incentives&tax

strategy

Community

awareness

Community

benefitsdesign

345

Commissioning&startup

Permitting®ulatoryDesign&

approvalconstruction

Cont.front-endengineering

DuringStages4-5,stakeholderengagementdecreasesinfrequencybutisimportanttoensure follow-throughonpriorcommunitycommitments

Equipmentprocurement

Site&civilworks

Contractormobilization

Workforcemobilization

Publichearings&approvals

Construction&safetypermits

Agency

coordination

Compliancereviews

Finalapprovals&conditions

Detailedengineering

Core

construction

Social

investments

Systems

commissioning

Integrated

testing

Phasedgo-live

Load&failovertesting

Community

benefitsdelivery

Re-zoning&landusepermits

Environmentalpermitting

Interconnectionagreements

17

Section06

BuildingSocialLicensetoDeliverProjects

Developersmustembedsociallicenseintoprojectdesign,engagingcommunitiesearly,delivering

tangiblebenefitsandmitigatinglocalimpacts.

Amodestinvestmentof0.03%–0.05%ofprojectcostcanmitigatebillionsinpotentiallosses,withreal-worldoutcomesdemonstratingthevalueofproactivesocio-economicmanagement.

Teneσ18

SocialLicensePrinciples

Developersmusttreatsociallicenseandsocio-economicmanagementasintegralelementsoftheprojectdesignprocessbyengagingcommunitiesearly,deliveringtangiblebenefits

andshieldingthemfromnegativeimpacts.

SpecificGuiding

actionsprinciples

Engagecommunitiesearly,continuouslyandauthentically

•Identifykeystakeholdersandtheirpriorities.

•Engagestakeholderscontinuouslyviain-

personandmulti-channelcommunication.

•Continuouslyengagegovernmentdecision-

makerstransparently.

•Resolvecommunityissuesandgrievances

quickly.

FindfurtherinformationintheTeneoreportonthisissue:

HowDataCentersareRemakingtheU.S.ElectricitySector–PartTwo:EmergingInnovations.

Insulatecommunitiesfromcostimpacts

•Implementbeneficiary-payscostrecovery.

•Setminimumbillsandlong-termservicecommitments.

•Deployflexibleload,behind-the-meteroptionsandatransparentpower/waterstrategy.

!

Developersmust:

Design,quantifyand

delivercommunitybenefits

•Integratesocio-economicmanagementintoprojectdesign.

•Assesseconomic,environmentaland

communityimpactswithlocalstakeholders.

•Implementco-designedmitigationswithstakeholderstoreduceimpacts.

•Delivervisiblebenefits,includingjobs,training,localbusinessopportunitiesandfiscalimpact.

•Fundsocialinvestment(e.g.ineducation,healthorentrepreneurship).

TO19

SocialLicenseActions

Investingbetween0.03–0.05%oftotalprojectcostintargetedcommunityengagementandinvestmentactivitiescanmitigatetheriskofbillionsinlossesbydeliveringvisible

communitybenefits.

12345

Siteidentification&landacquisition

Feasibility&duediligence

Permitting&

regulatoryapproval

Design&

construction

Commissioning&startup

Stakeholdermappingand

AdditionalactionsKeyactions

sentimentdiagnostics:Identifystakeholdersandassessattitudes

Earlycommunityengagementstrategyandactionplanning:

Proactivelyplan/manageengagementefforts

.Issueanticipation(

e.g.energy

,water,tax)

Socio-economicimpact

assessment:Evaluateimpactof

projectonlocalcommunities

Communitybenefitdesign:

Developinitiativesdelivering

tangiblebenefitstolocal

stakeholders

.Localworkforceandsupplychainstrategy

.Energystrategytoprotectratepayers

.Incentivesnegotiationsupport

.Coalition-buildingwithlocalstakeholders

.Narrativeshapingusinglocallyresonantmessaging

.EconomicImpactAssessment

Governmentrelations:Build

relationshipswithpolicymakersand

regulatoryauthorities

PMOtosupportcommunitybenefitplanimplementationand

grie