第七章国家风险评估及管理课件

第七章国家风险评估及管理ChapterObjectivesToidentifythecommonfactorsusedbyMNCstomeasureacountry’spoliticalriskandfinancialrisk;Toexplainthetechniquesusedtomeasurecountryrisk;andToexplainhowMNCsusetheassessmentofcountryriskwhenmakingfinancialdecisions.1WhyCountryRiskAnalysisIsImportant１.DefinitionofPoliticalrisk istheriskthatthebusinessenvironmentinahostcountrywillchangeunexpectedlyoristhepotentiallyadverseimpactofacountry’senvironmentonanMNC’scashflows(国家风险指东道国的商业环境发生非预期的变化，从而对跨国公司的价值产生影响。）2.SomeAdverseImpacts:a.Aterroristattackb.Amajorlaborstrikeinanindustryc.Apoliticalcrisisduetoascandalwithinacountryd.Concernaboutacountry’sbankingsystemthatmaycauseamajoroutflowoffundse.Theimpositionoftraderestrictionsonimports2３.Countryriskanalysiscanbeused:tomonitorcountrieswheretheMNCiscurrentlydoingbusiness;asascreeningdevicetoavoidconductingbusinessincountrieswithexcessiverisk;andtoreviseitsinvestmentorfinancingdecisionsinlightofrecentevents.WhyCountryRiskAnalysisIsImportant3thecompaniesthatassesscountryrisk.Politicalrisk

（政治风险）istheriskthatasovereignhostgovernmentwillunexpectedlychangetherulesofthegameunderwhichbusinessesoperatePoliticalrisksarisebecauseofunexpectedchangesinthepoliticalenvironmentwithinahostcountryorintherelationshipofahostcountrytoanothercountry.Financialrisk

（财务风险）refersmoregenerallytounexpectedeventsinacountry’sfinancial,economic,orbusinesslifeFinancialriskisdeterminedbyahostoffinancialandeconomicfactors,someofwhicharerelatedtolocalpoliticalrisk.4PoliticalRiskFactors5PoliticalRiskFactorsC.BlockageofFundTransfersFundsthatareblockedmaynotbeoptimallyused.Iffundtransfersareblocked,subsidiarieswillhavetoundertakeprojectsthatmaynotbeoptimalfortheMNC.D.CurrencyInconvertibilityTheMNCparentmayneedtoexchangeearningsforgoodsiftheforeigncurrencycannotbechangedintoothercurrencies6E.WarInternalandexternalbattles,oreventhethreatofwar,canhavedevastatingeffects.The2003WarinIraqF.Bureaucracy(官僚）Bureaucracycancomplicatebusinesses.G.Corruption（腐败）Corruptioncanincreasethecostofconductingbusinessorreducerevenue.PoliticalRiskFactors7CorruptionPerceptionsIndexTheindex,whichispublishedbyTransparencyInternational,reflectsthedegreetowhichcorruptionisperceivedtoexistamongpublicofficialsandpoliticians.In2001,91countriesarerankedonacleanscoreof10.RankCountryScore 1 Finland 9.9 3 NewZealand 9.4 4 Singapore 9.2 7 Canada 8.9 13 U.K. 8.3 14 HongKong 7.9 16 Israel 7.6 16 U.S.A. 7.6 18 Chile 7.5 20 Germany 7.4 21 Japan 7.1RankCountryScore 23 France 6.7 26 Botswana 6.0 27 Taiwan 5.9 38 SouthAfrica 4.8 42 SouthKorea 4.2 46 Brazil 4.0 51 Mexico 3.7 57 Argentina 3.5 57 China 3.5 79 Russia 2.3 88 Indonesia 1.98CorruptionIndexRatingsforSelectedCountriesMaximumrating=10.Highratingsindicatelowcorruption.9FindoutmoreaboutTransparencyInternationalandtheCorruptionPerceptionsIndexbyvisiting/documents/cpi/2001/cpi2001.html.OnlineApplication10FinancialRiskFactorsA.CurrentandPotentialStateoftheCountry’sEconomyArecessioncanseverelyreducedemand.FinancialdistresscanalsocausethegovernmenttorestrictMNCoperations.B.IndicatorsofEconomicGrowthAcountry’seconomicgrowthisdependentonseveralfinancialfactors-interestrates,exchangerates,inflation,etc.11ExamplesofpoliticalrisksExpropriationrisk（征用风险）

–AssetshavebeenexpropriatedafterrevolutionsinIranandChile.Disruptionsinoperations（经营中断风险）-changesinlawsorregulations..muchmorecommonthanexpropriationandcanhappeneveninpeacetime.Protectionism（贸易保护主义风险）

-e.g.,“buyAmerican.”Protectionismcanaffectlocalconsumption.Blockedfunds（资金转移风险）

-fundsthatcannotbeimmediatelyremittedtotheparentcompany.Lossofintellectualpropertyrights（知识产权风险）

-particularlyproblematicindevelopingandtransitionaleconomiessuchasChinaandtheformerstatesoftheSovietUnion.12ExamplesoffinancialrisksCurrencyriskInterestrateriskInflationriskUnexpectedchangesinthecurrentaccountbalanceUnexpectedchangesinthebalanceoftradePoliticalRiskServices’

InternationalCountryRiskGuide

（国际国家风险指南）includesthefollowingassessmentsintheirfinancialriskindex.LoandefaultsorloanrestructuringsPaymentdelaysCancellationsofcontractsbyahostgovernmentLossesfromexchangecontrolsExpropriationofprivateinvestments13Whatarethepoliticalandfinancialoutlookforvariouscountries?OnlineApplicationConsulttheCountryCommercialGuidespreparedbyembassystaffat/website/ccg.nsf/ccghomepage?openform/website/ccg.nsf/ccghomepage?openform.RefertotheCIA’sWorldFactbookat//.Visit/ifc/ifc/14TypesofCountryRiskAssessment１.MacroassessmentofCountryRiskMacrorisks——affectallfirmsinahostcountry(指在东道国整个国家范围内发生的影响到所有企业的风险，如东道国的财政和货币政策、银行系统、税率、资本管制、汇率等的突然变化。）

a.CharacteristicsoftheCountry: 1.)Politicalfactors 2.)Financialfactors b.UncertaintySurroundingaMacroassessment2.MicroassessmentofCountryRiskMicrorisks——specifictoanindustry,firmorprojectinacountry（指仅对某一特定行业或企业产生影响的风险，如移民政策的突然改变对大量使用外来劳动力的企业造成的影响。）Theoverallassessmentthusconsistsofmacropoliticalrisk,macrofinancialrisk,micropoliticalrisk,andmicrofinancialrisk.15Assessmentsofcountryrisks16Countryrisks

Africa

Asia

Europe

MidEast

AmericasA1 Australia Switzerland Canada UKA2 Botswana HKJapan Germany Kuwait USA S.Korea Italy UAEA3 Mauritius China Cyprus Israel Chile Namibia Thailand CzechRep TrinidadA4 Egypt India Latvia Saudi Mexico S.Africa Philippines Poland Arabia PanamaB Algeria Bangladesh Slovakia Egypt BrazilPeru Uganda SriLanka Russia Jordan VenezuelaC Congo Indonesia Azerbaijan IranSyria Haiti Kenya Vietnam Romania Turkey JamaicaD Nigeria Afghanistan Albania Iraq Argentina Sudan N.Korea Ukraine Cuba Zimbabwe Pakistan Yugoslavia Ecuador17Techniquesof

AssessingCountryRiskAchecklistapproach（清单法）

involvesratingandweightingalltheidentifiedfactors,andthenconsolidatingtheratesandweightstoproduceanoverallassessment.TheDelphitechnique

（德尔菲法）involvescollectingvariousindependentopinionsandthenaveragingandmeasuringthedispersionofthoseopinions.18Techniquesof

AssessingCountryRiskQuantitativeanalysis（定量分析法）

techniqueslikeregressionanalysiscanbeappliedtohistoricaldatatoassessthesensitivityofabusinesstovariousriskfactors.Inspectionvisits

（参观视察法）involvetravelingtoacountryandmeetingwithgovernmentofficials,firmexecutives,and/orconsumerstoclarifyuncertainties.192026/8/1520Often,firmsuseavarietyoftechniquesformakingcountryriskassessments.Forexample,theymayusethechecklistapproachtodevelopanoverallcountryriskrating,andsomeoftheothertechniquestoassignratingstothefactors.例如，国际国家风险指南（ICRG），设置了一个加权平均指数来反映国家风险，该指数由50%的政治风险指标、25%的金融风险指标和25%的经济风险指标构成。Techniquesof

AssessingCountryRisk21

MeasuringCountryRiskThechecklistapproachinvolves:Assigningvaluesandweightstopoliticalandfinancialriskfactors,Multiplyingthefactorvalueswiththeirweights,andsumminguptogivethepoliticalandfinancialriskratings,Assigningweightstotheriskratings,andMultiplyingtheratingswiththeirweights,andsumminguptogivethecountryriskrating.22CougarCo.:

DeterminingtheOverallCountryRiskRating23CougarCo.:

DerivationoftheOverallCountryRiskRating24注意：Theproceduresforquantifyingcountryriskwillvarywiththeassessor,thecountrybeingassessed,aswellasthetypeofoperationsbeingplanned.Firmsusecountryriskratingswhenscreeningpotentialprojects,andwhenmonitoringexistingprojects.MeasuringCountryRisk25AdjustmentoftheDiscountRateThehighertheperceivedrisk,thehigherthediscountratethatshouldbeappliedtotheproject’scashflows.AdjustmentoftheEstimatedCashFlowsByestimatinghowthecashflowscouldbeaffectedbyeachformofrisk,theMNCcandeterminetheprobabilitydistributionofthenetpresentvalueoftheproject.IncorporatingCountryRiskinCapitalBudgeting26ImpactofCountryRiskonanMNC’sValue E(CFj,t) = expectedcashflowsincurrencyjtobereceivedbytheU.S.parentattheendofperiodt E(ERj,t) = expectedexchangerateatwhichcurrencyjcanbeconvertedtodollarsattheendofperiodt k = weightedaveragecostofcapitaloftheparentExposureofForeignProjectstoCountryRisks27Strategiesformanagingcountryrisk1. Negotiate

theenvironmentwiththehostcountrypriortoinvestmentTheinvestmentenvironmentThefinancialenvironment2. Structureforeignoperationstominimizecountryriskwhilemaximizingreturn3. Obtainpoliticalriskissurance28StrategiesformanagingcountryriskNegotiate

theenvironmentwiththehostcountrypriortoinvestment（与环境协调配合）TheInvestmentEnvironmentcanbeagreedtoinanInvestmentagreementthatspecifiestherightsandobligationsoftheparties:Taxes(e.g.,duties,tariffs,taxholidays)Laborissues(e.g.,useofexpatriatemanagers)Concessions

(e.g.,privilegedaccesstorestrictedmarkets)Obligations

(e.g.,tie-inprojects)Restrictions(e.g.,onimportsorexportstoothermarkets)ProvisionsforplannedinvestmentdivestiturePerformanceassurancesonthepartofthehostgovernmentRemediesagainstdelayorexpropriationProvisionsandvenuesforinternationalarbitrationofdisputes29StrategiesformanagingcountryriskNegotiate

theenvironmentwiththehostcountrypriortoinvestmentTheFinancialEnvironment:Cashflowremittance

(managementfees,royalties,loanrepayments,dividends,transferpricing)Accesstocapitalmarketsinthehostcountry,includinganyownershiprestrictionsPossibilityofsubsidizedfinancingfromthehostgovernmentCorporate

governanceenvironmentRemediesincaseofcorporatenonperformanceorgovernmentdefault,includingprovisionsandvenuesfortheinternationalarbitrationofdisputes30Strategiesformanagingcountryrisk31ReducingExposure

toHostGovernmentTakeoversThebenefitsofDFIcanbeoffsetbycountryrisk,themostsevereofwhichisahostgovernmenttakeover.Toreducethechanceofatakeoverbythehostgovernment,firmsoftenusethefollowingstrategies:UseaShort-TermHorizonThistechniqueconcentratesonrecoveringcashflowquickly.32ReducingExposure

toHostGovernmentTakeoversRelyonUniqueSuppliesorTechnologyInthisway,thehostgovernmentwillnotbeabletotakeoverandoperatethesubsidiarysuccessfully.HireLocalLabor聘请本地劳工Thelocalemployeescanapplypressureontheirgovernment.33BorrowLocalFundsThelocalbankscanapplypressureontheirgovernment.PurchaseInsuranceInvestmentguaranteeprogramsofferedbythehomecountry母国,hostcountry,oraninternationalagencyinsuretosomeextentvariousformsofcountryrisk.ReducingExposure

toHostGovernmentTakeovers34PoliticalriskinsuranceInsurablepoliticalrisksincludeExpropriation（征用）duetowarrevolutioninsurrection暴动civildisturbance内乱terrorismRepatriationrestrictions遣返限制35PoliticalriskinsurersGovernmentexportcreditagenciesU.S.OverseasPrivateInvestmentCorporationU.K.ExportCreditsGuaranteeDepartmentInternationalWorldBank

MultilateralInvestmentGuaranteeAgencyPrivateLloyd’sofLondon

AmericanInternationalGroup(AIG)36Politicalriskinsurer