高盛 -2026年下半年全球并购展望：拥抱波动性悖论 Embracing the Volatility Paradox

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GLOBAL

M&AOUTLOOK

EmbracingtheVolatilityParadox

Atthecloseof2025,leaderswerestartingtothinkbigandbuildbigger.Thefirsthalfof2026deliveredonthatethos—andthensome.

GlobalM&Avolumesrose48%YoY1againstanunusuallysupportivebackdrop:strongequitymarkets,astabilizedregulatoryenvironment,

andconducivefinancingmarketsthatsupporttoday’ssuperchargedinnovationeconomy.Notably,thisuptickisdrivenprimarilybythesurgeindealsize,withmegaM&Avolumes+125%YoY.2M&Ahasalwaysbeenanchoredbytwofundamentals:cyclicalityandgrowth.WeexpectweareonlyinyearfourofthecurrentM&Acyclewithsubstantialroomtorun,despitelong-standinggeopoliticalandinflationarypressures.Avolatilityparadoxhasemerged,whereinstrategicurgencyisoverridingmacroeconomicuncertainty.

OurJune2026surveyofmorethan500corporateandfinancialsponsorclientspunctuatesthissentiment:Nearlyhalfsaycurrent

conditionsmakethemmorewillingtotransact.3Thatcompetitiveanxietyispalpable:AI-relateddealsarereshapingindustries,portfoliomovesaresharpeningfocus,andsponsorsarenavigatinganever-tighteningmarket.Theriskofstandingstillhasbecomegreaterthantheriskofexecution.

GOLDMANSACHSSURVEY

BytheNumbers

ResultsfromaJuneGoldmanSachssurveyof~500

corporateandfinancialsponsorclientssupporta

bullishoutlookforglobalM&Adealvolumesin2026.

believeafocusonscaleand

strategicgrowthwillbetheprimaryfactordrivingM&Adecisions.

44%

arebullishontheiroutlookforM&Agiventhecurrentmacroeconomicandmarketfactors.

61%

anticipateAIwillhavea

moderatetohighimpactontheirM&Astrategy.

TheAISupercycleandtheNextWaveofTransformativeM&A

Today’smarketisdefinedbythe“tyrannyofterminalvalue”—anasset’sfutureworthinformsitspricetoday—underpinningashiftingvaluationparadigm

focusedonlong-term,durableinvestments.AIamplifiesthis,pushinginvestorstovaluelong-termpotentialovernear-termcashflowsandmakingM&Aas

defensiveasitisoffensive.LeadersleverageM&Atobothgaincapabilities

andsignaltheycanwithstandAIdisruption.Andwhiletheworldhasbecomemoregeopoliticallyfragmented,cross-borderdealmakingactivityhasonlystrengthened,ascompaniesworktosecurecriticaltechnologies,diversify

supplychains,anddeepentheirpresenceinprioritymarketsacrossregions.

Thisambitionisdrivingtheriseof“DNAdeals,”acquisitionsthatembedAI

intoanorganization’scoreratherthanlayeringitontoexistingproductsor

processes.It’safamiliarrefrain:Duringthemovefromenterprisesoftware

tocloudcomputing,incumbentsturnedtoM&Atoacceleratecapabilities

theycouldnotbuildquicklyenoughontheirown.Thissamelogicnowdrivescompaniestoacquirethemodels,systems,andprotocolsthatareincreasinglycriticaltocompeteinanAI-nativeeconomy.

WhatComesNext:AI’sImpactontheRealEconomy

Asimilarurgencyisreshapingtherealeconomy.AsthedemandforAIpushesinfrastructure,power,andutilitiestobuildfaster,M&Abecomesastrategic

levertoscale.Hyperscalers’newfocusonnuclearpower,datacenterdeveloperinvestmentingridinfrastructure,andindustrialcompanydeploymentofAI-

drivenenergyoptimizationarecreatinganewcategoryofdealmakingatthe

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intersectionoftechnologyM&Aandenergyinfrastructureinvestment.TherecentlyproposedcombinationofNextEraEnergyandDominionatanenterprisevalueof$118.8bn4reflectsthisconvergence.

EnterprisesoftwarewasAI’sfirstproofpoint,butthenextfrontierisphysicalAI,representedbytheroughly$100tnofglobalactivityAIhasbarelytouched.5ArestructuringisunderwayinindustrialAIsoftware,theoperationallayerofthestackwhereincumbentsareembeddingAIintothetoolsthatdesign,simulate,andrunphysicaloperations.Whilelessvisiblethanthesoftwaresell-off,thescaleisgreater—spanningmanufacturing,lifesciences,energy,aerospace,andmore.TheleadersofthiserawillstrategicallyleverageM&Atoassembleandintegratethesecapabilitiesatscale.

Global1H2026M&AVolumesSurpass2021All-TimeHighs6

$3.1tn

$2.9tn

$2.2tn

$2.1tn

$1.6tn

$1.3tn

1H20211H20221H20231H20241H20251H2026

PortfolioFocus:ConcentratingThroughScale

Nearly60%ofsurveyrespondentscitescaleandstrategicgrowthastheirprimaryM&Adrivers.7AndwhileAIisdominantinboardroom

dialogue,it’snotdirectlyfuelingthemajorityofactivity(yet).Ithas,however,createdamaterialhaloeffect,pushingcorporateleadersto

scale,adapt,andconsolidatewhilereassessingfundamentaltruthstheytookforgrantedjustmonthsago.Industriesaredoublingdownonkeymarketstogainacompetitiveedgeinanincreasinglywinner-takes-allmarket—particularlyamidrisingactivistpressuretoaccelerate

portfoliooptimization.Transactionslikethe$44.8bnUnileverFoods–McCormickmerger8andMerckKGaA’s$11.3bnpurchaseofBio-Techne9indicatethesharpfocusacrosssectorsonoptimizingcorebusinesses,withscaleastheultimateadvantage.

Thatneedtosharpenfocusisalsotriggeringaparallelwaveofglobalseparationactivity(+145%YTDrelativetothe2021–2025average)as

corporatesshednoncoreoperations.10InQ2,Honeywellcompletedthe~$88bnseparationofitsaerospacebusiness,11thelaststepinsplittingintothreefocusedleaders,andComcastannouncedaspin-offofNBCUniversalandSky.12Asboardsrealignbroaderportfoliostocreatepure-playentities,weexpectthisactivitytocontinue.

NavigatingtheFlighttoQualityandExitBottlenecks

Privatemarketsareundergoingtheirownstructuralshift.Distributionssitnearlowsunseensincethefinancialcrisis—leavingGPswithabacklogofroughly16,000companiesheldoverfouryears,morethanhalfofallbuyout-backedinventory.Sponsorsarenowincreasinglyselectiveaboutwhereandhowtheydeploycapital—withanotablefocusontake-privates,assetconsolidations,andfounder-ledLBOs.

“We’reseeingafundamentalshiftwhereboardroomsviewinactionastheultimaterisk—proactivelypursuingtransformativetransactionsdespitepersistentmacroeconomicheadwinds.”

StephanFeldgoise|HeadofGlobalM&A

AsLPs’callsforliquidityintensify,theassumptionthatcompaniescanstayprivateindefinitelyisbeingcalledintoquestion.Despitelongerholdingperiods,strongequitymarketssignalapathtoliquidity—evidencedinQ2bySpaceX’slandmark$85.7bnIPO,13underscoringafocusonfundingfuturegrowth;INNIO’s$2.8bnIPO,14signalingsponsors’abilitytomonetizestakesinthepublicmarkets;orthe€29.4bnmergerofKONEandTKE,15highlightingsponsors’focusoncontributingportfoliocompaniesintopublicentitiesforcashandstock.Weexpect

distributionratestoreturntohistoricalaveragesasconditionssteadyandM&Aaccelerates.

Themenuofexitoptionsisalsoexpanding.Continuationvehiclesandotherstructuredliquiditysolutionscontinuetobecomemore

mainstream,allowingsponsorstoreturncapitalwhileretainingownershipoftheirhighest-priorityassets.Successwillcometothose

whoadaptdifferentiated,enhancedcapabilitieswhileprioritizingaflighttoquality,withprivatemarketsnotablyholdingroughly30%ofallsoftwareexposure.16Goingforward,durable,cash-generative,hard-assetbusinesseswillbeprioritized,whileassetsmostexposedtodisruptioncouldfacegreatervaluationpressures.

WhatCouldShiftfromHere?

WhileheightenedCEOconfidenceandincreaseddemandforgrowthwillcontinuetofuelstrategicM&A,prolongedmacroeconomic

uncertaintycouldshiftthetoneinboardroomsifleadershipteamslackvisibilityontheforwardandaproactiveplantonavigateinevitableexogenousshocks.

HEADWINDSTOWATCHTAILWINDSTOSEIZE

WideningValuationGap

ValuationscouldshiftiftheCapExrequiredforphysicalinfrastructurefailstogeneratenear-termmonetization.

ConsolidationforScale

Well-capitalizedbuyerscontinuetodrivethemarket,leveragingrobustbalancesheetstosecuremarketshareandbuildglobalindustryleaders.

StubbornInflationandRateVolatility

Anyresurgenceininflationcouldraiseinterestrates—potentiallyincreasingthecostofcapitalandsubduingbuyoutactivity.

ThePhysicalAIandInfrastructureBoom

Ashyperscalersandenergycompaniessecurepowerandsupplychains,infrastructureM&Awillcontinuetoseeincreasedcapitaldeployment.

ProlongedSponsorExitBottlenecks

Ifthebacklogofmatureprivateassetsisnotsufficientlyabsorbed,LPdemandsforliquiditycouldrestrictfundcommitments.

RegulatoryScrutiny

Increasedregulatoryscrutinyandprolongedapprovaltimelinescouldincreaseexecutionriskandtimelines.

UnlockingDryPowder

Anynarrowingofvaluationgapscouldtriggerasurgeinsponsor-ledtransactions.

PortfolioOptimization

Ascorporateboardsreevaluatetheircorebusinessmodels,manywilllooktoshednoncoreoperations,creatinganactivepipelineofspin-offs.

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Thesecondhalfof2026willlikelyseemomentumpersist,butdealswillonlygrowmorecomplexasvolatilitybecomesthestandardoperatingenvironment.

OurglobalInvestmentBankingbusinessisbuiltonacultureofenduringpartnershipsandacommitmenttodeliveringexceptionalexecutioninthemostconsequential

moments.Welookforwardtopartneringwithourclientstodojustthat.

#1

GlobalM&AAdvisor18

#1

GlobalInvestmentBank17

GlobalM&ALeadership

STEPHANFELDGOISE

HeadofGlobalM&A

DAVIDDUBNER

GlobalCOOofM&AandGlobalHeadofM&A

Structuring

Co-Chairs,GlobalM&A

GENESYKES

TIMINGRASSIADUSTYPHILIP

GILBERTOPOZZIDANBLANK

AVINASHMEHROTRA

Co-HeadofAmericasM&Aand

GlobalHeadofActivism,ShareholderAdvisory&TakeoverDefensePractices

BENWALLACE

Co-HeadofAmericasM&AandGlobalHeadofHealthcareM&A

NIMESHKHIROYA

Co-HeadofEMEAM&A

CARSTENWOEHRN

Co-HeadofEMEAM&A

RAGHAVMALIAH

GlobalChairmanofInvestment

Banking,Co-HeadofAPACM&A,and

HeadofAPEJTechnology,Media&Telecom

YOSHIHIKOYANO

Co-HeadofAPACM&Aand

Co-HeadofJapanInvestmentBanking

EDWITTIG

Co-HeadofAPACM&A

CHRISTINAMINNIS

GlobalHeadofCredit&AssetFinanceandHeadofGlobalAcquisitionFinance

HAIDEELEE

GlobalCo-HeadofSponsorM&A

COLINCONVEY

GlobalCo-HeadofSponsorM&A

PAMELACODO-LOTTI

GlobalCOOofActivism&ShareholderAdvisory

GlobalCo-Heads,

InvestmentBankingMATTMCCLURE

ANTHONYGUTMANKIMPOSNETT

GlobalCo-Heads,EMEAInvestmentBanking

ANDREKELLENERSANNASKOGLUND

GlobalCo-Heads,

CapitalSolutionsGroupPETELYON

MAHESHSAIREDDY

GlobalHead,APACInvestmentBanking

IAINDRAYTON

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Endnotes

1DealogicasofJuly8,2026

2DealogicasofJuly8,2026

3Resultsbasedonasurveyof500GoldmanSachsInvestmentBankingclients—includingcorporates,financialsponsors,sovereignentities,andnonprofits—conductedbetweenJune15,2026,andJuly6,2026.

4Pressrelease,May18,2026

5HarnessingAIfortheRealEconomy,June27,2026

6DealogicasofJuly8,2026

7Resultsbasedonasurveyof500GoldmanSachsInvestmentBankingclients—includingcorporates,financialsponsors,sovereignentities,andnonprofits—conductedbetweenJune15,2026,andJuly6,2026.

8Pressrelease,March31,2026

9Pressrelease,June25,2026

10DealogicasofJune30,2026,publiccompanyfilingsandpressreleases.Note:Deal

valuerepresentsEVasofdayoneofregularwaytrading,calculatedusingopenprice.

11Pressrelease,June29,2026

12Pressrelease,June29,2026

13Pressrelease,June15,2026

14Pressrelease,June3,2026

15Pressrelease,April29,2026

16Octus,February26,2026

17BasedonDealogicreportingofcumulativeannouncedM&Adealvolume,thenumberofdealsover$500millioninvalue,andassociatedmarketsharefromJanuary1,2000,throughJune30,2026.

18Dealogic—January1,2025,throughDecember31,2025.M&AreferstobothannouncedandcompletedM&A.

Disclaimer

ThispaperhasbeenpreparedbyGoldmanSachsInvestmentBankingforinformationalpurposesandisnotaproductofGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch.Thispaper,inwholeorinpart,shouldnotbecopied,published,reproducedorotherwiseduplicated,orbedistributedorotherwisedisseminatedtoanyotherperson.ThispaperdoesnotpurporttocontainacomprehensiveoverviewofGoldmanSachs’productsandofferingsandmaydifferfromtheviewsandopinionsofotherdepartmentsorsegmentsofGoldmanSachs

anditsaffiliates.

Thispapershouldnotbeusedasabasisfortradinginthesecuritiesorloansofanycompany,includingthosenamedherein,orforanyotherinvestmentde