【EPC模式的工程项目风险管理研究开题报告文献综述7700字】

EPC模式的工程项目风险管理研究开题报告文献综述目录TOC\o"1-3"\h\u8773EPC模式的工程项目风险管理研究开题报告文献综述 148321.1研究背景及意义 1199271.1.1研究背景 137851.1.2研究意义 2281251.2国内外研究现状 3175541.2.1风险识别方面研究现状 460371.2.2风险因素方面研究现状 5164751.2.3风险评价方面研究现状 6110161.3主要研究内容 673451.4研究方法 71.1研究背景及意义1.1.1研究背景随着我国国民经济的快速发展，我国城市化进程加剧，人民生活水平有了显著提高。随之而来的全国工业、城市电力需求和供电质量的要求业越来越高。据国家能源局公布数据显示，2020年，全社会用电量75110亿千瓦时，同比增长3.1%。其中第一产业用电量859亿千瓦时，同比增长10.2%；第二产业用电量51215亿千瓦时，同比增长2.5%；第三产业用电量12087亿千瓦时，同比增长1.9%；城乡居民生活用电量10949亿千瓦时，同比增长6.9%。全社会用电量持续稳定增长，电网负荷增加，电缆线路工程建设需求也逐步增加。现行的电网工程项目承包模式多种多样，根据项目的特点选择合适的承包模式。随着我国输电网络系统的建成和不断优化过程中，电力工程总承包模式，即EPC模式的应用已经变成了电力行业的主要发展形式，逐步推动了我国电力行业总承包模式和建筑企业的扩大。具备项目总承包资质的工程单位在具体的建设实践中掌握了很多不同方面的技能，有效的推进了电网系统的发展和升级。北京通州—运河220kV电缆线路工程建设项目是北京行政副中心电网重要组成部分，该项目的建成可以有效缓解通州地区用电紧张情况，对当地电网结构的稳定型和安全性具有重要的意义。在实际建设过程中，传统管理模式下电缆线路工程的招投标、施工建设、物资供应等方面难以做到紧密衔接，建设管理在科学性和合理性上有所欠缺，使得在实际建设中工程各个参建单位之间遇到问题相互推诿，造成电缆线路工程将建设项目进度缓慢、质量低下、成本增加以及项目效益降低等。在这种背景下，为有效解决电缆线路工程建设项目传统建设管理模式存在的普遍问题，探索将EPC管理模式引入到北京通州—运河220kV电缆线路工程项目管理中，以期达到成本降低、质量提高、周期缩短、效率提升以及风险降低的目的。在该背景下，电网建设企业在投产电缆线路工程项目时有必要开展合理有效的项目风险识别、风险评价和风险管控等工作。本文以北京通州—运河220kV电缆线路工程建设项目为例，对其采用EPC模式进行项目管理实施风险评价研究。在明确项目建设必要性的基础上，全面识别北京通州—运河220kV电缆线路工程建设项目的风险因素和等级，进行科学的评价并针对结果提出具体的应对方案，保证项目的顺利进行。1.1.2研究意义随着北京行政副中心的确立，通州区建设速度的加快，该地区城市人口的增加，居民和产业用电量也逐步增加。根据北京电网“十三五”规划，2018年投运的运河220kV变电站投运后，一期电源引自商务园220kV变电站，单一电源供电不满足北京行政副中心供电可靠性要求，规划建设通州至运河电缆线路，形成顺义500kV站—商务园—运河—通州—通州500kV站的环网结构，提高供电可靠性。通常来讲，电缆线路工程项目需要较大的投资，同时施工时间较长，而电网技术水平和标准不断提高，在电网建设过程中采用EPC模式面临的未知风险因素越来越多，大大增加了施工难度和建设的风险。为了对项目风险进行有效的把控，通过搜集相关数据，项目主要承包方可以通过统计学的分析和研究识别主要的风险因素。但是在现实生活中，通常不存在完全一致的建设项目，在EPC实际应用到电缆线路工程时可能会遇到各种问题。且当前我国电力市场以及整个环境要求不断变化，增加了电缆线路施工的环境风险，同时电缆线路工程项目持续时间长，人员、物料等的不确定性也大大增加了整个项目风险管理的难度。因此通过识别、评价采用EPC模式的北京通州—运河220kV电缆线路工程项目风险因素、风险发生的概率以及整个项目风险等级，在此基础上提出风险的管控措施具有重要的实际价值。（1）理论意义：与其他的工程承包模式相比，EPC模式下的工程风险将大部分转嫁到工程承建方身上，因此，从工程项目承包商方面看，为获取较大利润选择EPC模式，那另一方面必须选择合适的方式管理和降低工程建设过程中的风险。本文针对北京通州—运河220kV电缆线路EPC项目建设实例进行分析研究，对项目建设过程中的风险进行识别、评估、分级和管理，并给出相应的EPC模式电缆线路工程项目风险评价模型，并在基础上提出风险应对措施，降低工程项目风险，为相关企业的电缆线路工程项目的建设实施提供一定的理论支持。（2）EPC逐渐成为电力工程建设领域的主要采用的模式之一。在该模式下，电缆线路工程项目的实施可以缩短施工工期、优化建设投资并提高整个项目质量。但是当前我国电缆线路项目的建设并不是完全开放的领域，具有较强的专业性和特殊性。在此背景下，如果项目的总承包方缺乏风险识别能力和应对能力，对风险的发生没有清醒的认识，一旦风险发生，总承办方将陷入十分被动的局面，给项目带来不可挽回的损失。且随着当前社会经济发展，电缆线路的EPC模式渐被运用到实际中，工程复杂程度逐渐提高，项目建设质量要求更为严格，电缆线路项目的EPC项目总承包方面临更为严峻的风险形势。从目前总承包模式下的电力工程管理现状来看，风险管理体系对电缆线路工程项目建设起着至关重要的作用。由于投资额大，持续时间长，参与主体较多，组织关系复杂，电缆线路EPC项目在执行过程中存在很多不确定因素，且工程承包商在整个生产经营活动中都处在一个不断变化的自然环境和社会环境下。对电缆线路EPC项目工程建设风险管理进行研究，能够提高电缆线路工程项目建设的投资收益，保障工程进度计划实施，。因此，如何建立一套完整的电力工程风险管理体系是一项重要的项目管理工作，对推进电缆线路工程EPC总承包项目的风险管理工作具有较强的现实意义。1.2国内外研究现状风险管理的研究由来已久，并在各行业中的得到广泛的应用。国际标准化组织(ISO31000(2009))指出，风险是“不确定性对目标的影响”ADDINZOTERO_ITEMCSL_CITATION{"citationID":"KKSoIi6y","properties":{"formattedCitation":"\\super[1]\\nosupersub{}","plainCitation":"[1]","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":113,"uris":["/users/local/SKYr5Sg2/items/S7WJ2CQQ"],"uri":["/users/local/SKYr5Sg2/items/S7WJ2CQQ"],"itemData":{"id":113,"type":"article-journal","abstract":"Inspiteofalleffortstodesignsafersystems,westillwitnesssevere,large-scaleaccidents.Abasicquestionis:Doweactuallyhaveadequatemodelsofaccidentcausationinthepresentdynamicsociety?Thesocio-technicalsysteminvolvedinriskmanagementincludesseverallevelsrangingfromlegislators,overmanagersandworkplanners,tosystemoperators.Thissystemispresentlystressedbyafastpaceoftechnologicalchange,byanincreasinglyaggressive,competitiveenvironment,andbychangingregulatorypracticesandpublicpressure.Traditionally,eachlevelofthisisstudiedseparatelybyaparticularacademicdiscipline,andmodellingisdonebygeneralisingacrosssystemsandtheirparticularhazardsources.Itisarguedthatriskmanagementmustbemodelledbycross-disciplinarystudies,consideringriskmanagementtobeacontrolproblemandservingtorepresentthecontrolstructureinvolvingalllevelsofsocietyforeachparticularhazardcategory.Furthermore,itisarguedthatthisrequiresasystem-orientedapproachbasedonfunctionalabstractionratherthanstructuraldecomposition.Therefore,taskanalysisfocusedonactionsequencesandoccasionaldeviationintermsofhumanerrorsshouldbereplacedbyamodelofbehaviourshapingmechanismsintermsofworksystemconstraints,boundariesofacceptableperformance,andsubjectivecriteriaguidingadaptationtochange.Itisfoundthatatpresentaconvergenceofresearchparadigmsofhumansciencesguidedbycognitivescienceconceptssupportsthisapproach.Areviewofthisconvergencewithindecisiontheoryandmanagementresearchispresentedincomparisonwiththeevolutionofparadigmswithinsafetyresearch.","container-title":"SafetyScience","DOI":"10.1016/S0925-7535(97)00052-0","ISSN":"0925-7535","issue":"2","journalAbbreviation":"SafetyScience","language":"en","page":"183-213","source":"ScienceDirect","title":"Riskmanagementinadynamicsociety:amodellingproblem","title-short":"Riskmanagementinadynamicsociety","volume":"27","author":[{"family":"Rasmussen","given":"Jens"}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["1997",11,1]]}}}],"schema":"/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[1]。项目管理协会(PMI)指出，风险是“一种不确定的事件或条件，如果它发生，对一个或多个项目目标有积极或消极的影响”。随后，学术界开始对风险管理理论进行丰富，并提出各种方法模型评估项目的风险，如层次分析法ADDINZOTERO_ITEMCSL_CITATION{"citationID":"zusCVeUY","properties":{"formattedCitation":"\\super[2\\uc0\\u8211{}4]\\nosupersub{}","plainCitation":"[2–4]","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":87,"uris":["/users/local/SKYr5Sg2/items/ZP7CFQXN"],"uri":["/users/local/SKYr5Sg2/items/ZP7CFQXN"],"itemData":{"id":87,"type":"article-journal","container-title":"IEEEIndustryApplicationsMagazine","DOI":"10.1109/MIAS.2020.3024452","ISSN":"1077-2618,1558-0598","issue":"3","journalAbbreviation":"IEEEInd.Appl.Mag.","page":"31-41","source":"DOI.org(Crossref)","title":"ElectricalSafetyinIndustrialConstruction:AnAnalysisof10YearsofIncidentsintheGlobalEngineering,Procurement,andConstructionIndustry","title-short":"ElectricalSafetyinIndustrialConstruction","volume":"27","author":[{"family":"Anderson","given":"Richard"},{"family":"McGaw","given":"Shawn"},{"family":"Parra","given":"Giovanni"}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2021",5]]}},"label":"page"},{"id":115,"uris":["/users/local/SKYr5Sg2/items/GFFVM9ML"],"uri":["/users/local/SKYr5Sg2/items/GFFVM9ML"],"itemData":{"id":115,"type":"article-journal","container-title":"CanadianJournalofCivilEngineering","DOI":"10.1139/cjce-2013-0013","ISSN":"0315-1468","issue":"12","journalAbbreviation":"Can.J.Civ.Eng.","note":"publisher:NRCResearchPress","page":"1184-1195","source":"(Atypon)","title":"Riskidentificationandassessmentofmodularconstructionutilizingfuzzyanalytichierarchyprocess(AHP)andsimulation","volume":"40","author":[{"family":"Li","given":"HongXian"},{"family":"Al-Hussein","given":"Mohamed"},{"family":"Lei","given":"Zhen"},{"family":"Ajweh","given":"Ziad"}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2013",12,1]]}},"label":"page"},{"id":118,"uris":["/users/local/SKYr5Sg2/items/38YGV2X6"],"uri":["/users/local/SKYr5Sg2/items/38YGV2X6"],"itemData":{"id":118,"type":"article-journal","abstract":"Introduction\nTheinherentanduniquerisksonconstructionprojectsquiteoftenpresentkeychallengestocontractors.Healthandsafetyrisksareamongthemostsignificantrisksinconstructionprojectssincetheconstructionindustryischaracterizedbyarelativelyhighinjuryanddeathratecomparedtootherindustries.Inconstructionprojectmanagement,safetyriskassessmentisanimportantsteptowardidentifyingpotentialhazardsandevaluatingtherisksassociatedwiththehazards.Adequateprioritizationofsafetyrisksduringriskassessmentiscrucialforplanning,budgeting,andmanagementofsafetyrelatedrisks.\nMethod\nInthispaper,asafetyriskassessmentframeworkispresentedbasedonthetheoryofcostofsafety(COS)modelandtheanalytichierarchyprocess(AHP).Themaincontributionoftheproposedframeworkisthatitpresentsarobustmethodforprioritizationofsafetyrisksinconstructionprojectstocreatearationalbudgetandtosetrealisticgoalswithoutcompromisingsafety.\nTheimpacttotheindustry\nTheframeworkprovidesadecisiontoolforthedecisionmakerstodeterminetheadequateaccident/injurypreventioninvestmentswhileconsideringthefundinglimits.Theproposedsafetyriskframeworkisillustratedusingareal-lifeconstructionprojectandtheadvantagesandlimitationsoftheframeworkarediscussed.","container-title":"JournalofSafetyResearch","DOI":"10.1016/j.jsr.2013.05.003","ISSN":"0022-4375","journalAbbreviation":"JournalofSafetyResearch","language":"en","page":"99-105","source":"ScienceDirect","title":"Safetyriskassessmentusinganalytichierarchyprocess(AHP)duringplanningandbudgetingofconstructionprojects","volume":"46","author":[{"family":"Aminbakhsh","given":"Saman"},{"family":"Gunduz","given":"Murat"},{"family":"Sonmez","given":"Rifat"}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2013",9,1]]}},"label":"page"}],"schema":"/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[2–4]、蒙特卡洛模型ADDINZOTERO_ITEMCSL_CITATION{"citationID":"OeL6nnjA","properties":{"formattedCitation":"\\super[5,6]\\nosupersub{}","plainCitation":"[5,6]","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":120,"uris":["/users/local/SKYr5Sg2/items/4QQFJDIY"],"uri":["/users/local/SKYr5Sg2/items/4QQFJDIY"],"itemData":{"id":120,"type":"article-journal","abstract":"Thispaperconsiderstherelationshipofthemajoruncertaintiesofaprojectbyusingproposedapproach.ThisapproachbyusingrotaryalgorithmintellectualizedtheclassicMonteCarlosimulation.Thiswillhelputilityfunctiontocomeclosertorealitysothatdecisionmakingandriskanalysiswouldbedonebasedontherealandpossiblemodes,providingbetterconditionsfordecisionmaking.Analyzingandinvestigatinguncertaintiesaredoneintheriskmanagementframework.Becauseopportunitiesandthreatsarenotseparated,MonteCarlosimulationanalysisisimplementedasanintegratedtooltoreachtheprojectgoals,analyzingandinvestigatingavarietyofuncertaintypermutationssimultaneously.Thismethodisapowerfultoolforinvestigatingtheeffectsofalluncertainties’occurrence,soithasnoticeablebenefitssuchassimultaneousconsiderationofuncertaintiesandthecapabilityofrepresentingseveraldimensionsofutilityfunction.Inspiteofthesebenefits,notconsideringthetypeandlevelofrelationships,somepermutationsofuncertaintieswilloccurthatarenotpossibleinrealworld.Thiswoulddiverttheutilityfunctionfromreality.Asimpleexampleisusedtoillustratetheapplicationofthemodelinpractice.","container-title":"AppliedMathematicsandComputation","DOI":"10.1016/j.amc.2007.02.038","ISSN":"0096-3003","issue":"2","journalAbbreviation":"AppliedMathematicsandComputation","language":"en","page":"1492-1501","source":"ScienceDirect","title":"UsingextendedMonteCarlosimulationmethodfortheimprovementofriskmanagement:Considerationofrelationshipsbetweenuncertainties","title-short":"UsingextendedMonteCarlosimulationmethodfortheimprovementofriskmanagement","volume":"190","author":[{"family":"Rezaie","given":"K."},{"family":"Amalnik","given":"M.S."},{"family":"Gereie","given":"A."},{"family":"Ostadi","given":"B."},{"family":"Shakhseniaee","given":"M."}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2007",7,15]]}},"label":"page"},{"id":121,"uris":["/users/local/SKYr5Sg2/items/9QXBFDYT"],"uri":["/users/local/SKYr5Sg2/items/9QXBFDYT"],"itemData":{"id":121,"type":"article-journal","abstract":"Astheconstructionofinfrastructuresbecomesincreasinglycomplex,ithasoftenbeenchallengedbyconstructiondelaywithenormouslosses.Thedeliveryofcomplexinfrastructuresprovidesarichsourceofdatafornewopportunitiestounderstandandaddressscheduleissues.Basedonthesedata,manyeffortshavebeenmadetoidentifykeyconstructionschedulerisksandpredicttheprobabilityofriskoccurrence.Bayesiannetworkisoneofthemostusefultoolsforriskinference.However,therearestilltwoobstaclespreventingtheBayesiannetworkfrombeingadoptedpopularlyinconstructionscheduleriskmanagement:(1)

thedevelopmentofdirectedacyclicgraph(DAG)andassociatedconditionalprobabilitytables(CPTs);and(2)

thelackofobservationdatatotriggerriskinferenceasevidenceattheplanningstage.ThisresearchaimstodevelopanovelBayesianMonteCarlosimulation–drivenapproachforconstructionscheduleriskinferenceofinfrastructures,wheretheBayesiannetworkmodelcanbedevelopedinamoreconvenientwayandbeusedwithoutobservationdatarequired.Itfirstconstructsthekeyrisknetworkwithkeyrisksandlinksthroughnetworktheory–basedanalysis.ThentheDAGstructureofaBayesiannetworkisdevelopedbasedonthetopologicalstructureofkeyrisknetworkusingdeep-firstsearch(DFS)andadaptedmaximum-weightspanningtree(A-MWST)algorithms.TheCPTsarefurtherdevelopedusingtheleaky-MAXmodel.Finally,theBayesianMonteCarlosimulation–drivenriskinferencemethodisdevelopedforpredictingandquantifyingtheprobabilityofconstructionscheduleriskoccurrence.Arealinfrastructureprojectwasselectedasacasestudytoverifythisdevelopedapproach.Theresultsshowthatthedevelopedapproachismoreappropriatetodealwithriskinferenceofinfrastructuresconsideringitsreliability,convenience,andflexibility.Thisresearchcontributesanewwaytoconstructionscheduleriskmanagementandprovidesanovelapproachforquantifyingandpredictingriskoccurrenceprobability.","container-title":"JournalofManagementinEngineering","DOI":"10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0000884","ISSN":"1943-5479","issue":"2","language":"EN","note":"publisher:AmericanSocietyofCivilEngineers","page":"04020115","source":"ASCE","title":"BayesianMonteCarloSimulation–DrivenApproachforConstructionScheduleRiskInference","volume":"37","author":[{"family":"Chen","given":"Long"},{"family":"Lu","given":"Qiuchen"},{"family":"Li","given":"Shuai"},{"family":"He","given":"Wenjing"},{"family":"Yang","given":"Jian"}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2021",3,1]]}},"label":"page"}],"schema":"/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[5,6]、风险矩阵ADDINZOTERO_ITEMCSL_CITATION{"citationID":"1MwdFdm8","properties":{"formattedCitation":"\\super[7,8]\\nosupersub{}","plainCitation":"[7,8]","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":124,"uris":["/users/local/SKYr5Sg2/items/G2J7XYEZ"],"uri":["/users/local/SKYr5Sg2/items/G2J7XYEZ"],"itemData":{"id":124,"type":"article-journal","abstract":"Thepresentstudycomparesandanalyzesthreeriskanalysismodelsthatareapplicabletoshieldtunnelboringmachine(TBM)tunneling,andthusproposesanimprovedriskmatrixmodelbasedonthecausalnetworksapplicabletosustainabletunnelprojects.Theadvantagesanddisadvantagesofthreeriskanalysismodelsarecompared,andcausalnetworksarestructuredbyanalyzingthecausalrelationshipbetweenriskfactorsandriskevents.Basedonthecomparisonandanalysisresults,thecausalnetwork-basedriskmatrixmodel(CN-Matrixmodel),whichcomplementsthedisadvantagesandexploitstheadvantagesofthethreeexistingmodels,isproposedinthispaper.Furthermore,thisstudysuggestsameansofmodifyingtheweightingscoresintheestimationoftheriskscore,whichpermitstheCN-Matrixmodeltodeterminetherisklevelmorereasonably.Thus,theimprovedCN-Matrixmodelismorereliableandrobustcomparedtothethreeexistingmodels.","container-title":"Sustainability","DOI":"10.3390/su13094846","issue":"9","language":"en","note":"number:9\npublisher:MultidisciplinaryDigitalPublishingInstitute","page":"4846","source":"","title":"ACausalNetwork-BasedRiskMatrixModelApplicabletoShieldTBMTunnelingProjects","volume":"13","author":[{"family":"Chung","given":"Heeyoung"},{"family":"Park","given":"Jeongjun"},{"family":"Kim","given":"Byung-Kyu"},{"family":"Kwon","given":"Kibeom"},{"family":"Lee","given":"In-Mo"},{"family":"Choi","given":"Hangseok"}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2021",1]]}},"label":"page"},{"id":126,"uris":["/users/local/SKYr5Sg2/items/BL7A3LJ4"],"uri":["/users/local/SKYr5Sg2/items/BL7A3LJ4"],"itemData":{"id":126,"type":"article-journal","abstract":"Scenarioplanningandprobabilitiesareoftenveryhelpfulinuncertaindecisionproblems.Inthepaper,weexaminethecorrectnessofcombiningprobabilitieswithscenarioplanninginriskmanagement.Wemakealiteraturereviewandanalysediversedecisionproblemsdifferingfromeachotherwithregardtotheirnature,thedecisionmaker'sobjectivesandpreferences.Weexplorecompetition,quality,innovation,resourceallocation,inventoryandbankingissues.Theillustrativeexamplesconcernbothone-criterionandmulti-criteriadecisionproblems.Wegettothepointthatscenarioplanningisanunquestionablesupportforriskmanagement.Nevertheless,theuseofprobabilitiesasanaccompanyingtoolmaybenecessaryandjustifiedmerelyinsomespecificcases.","container-title":"InternationalJournalofEconomicsandBusinessResearch","DOI":"10.1504/IJEBR.2021.112015","ISSN":"1756-9850","issue":"1","note":"publisher:IndersciencePublishers","page":"22-40","source":"(Atypon)","title":"Scenarioplanningcombinedwithprobabilitiesasariskmanagementtool-analysisofprosandcons","volume":"21","author":[{"family":"Gaspars-Wieloch","given":"Helena"}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2021",1,1]]}},"label":"page"}],"schema":"/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[7,8]、模糊集理论ADDINZOTERO_ITEMCSL_CITATION{"citationID":"qvVbh9fd","properties":{"formattedCitation":"\\super[9,10]\\nosupersub{}","plainCitation":"[9,10]","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":128,"uris":["/users/local/SKYr5Sg2/items/URGCGG83"],"uri":["/users/local/SKYr5Sg2/items/URGCGG83"],"itemData":{"id":128,"type":"article-journal","abstract":"Thispaperpresentsabriefreviewonmajoraccidentsandconductsbibliometricanalysisofriskassessmentmethodsforexcavationsysteminrecentyear.Thesummarizationofpotentialrisksduringexcavationprovidesanimportantindexforestablishinganearlywarningsystem.Theapplicationsoffuzzysettheoryandmachinelearningmethodsinriskassessmentduringexcavationarepresented.AcasestudyofexcavationinGuangzhoumetrostationisusedtodemonstratetheapplicationofamachinelearningmethodforriskevaluation.Thelargeamountofdatacollectedby3Stechniques(RS,GISandGPS)andsensorsincreasesaccuracyofriskassessmentlevelsinexcavation.Theseprocedures,integratedintobuildinginformationmodelling(BIM)managementplatform,canmanipulatedynamicsafetyriskmonitoring,control,andmanagement.Finally,theprocessingandanalysisofbigdataobtainedfrom3Stechniquesandsensorsprovidepromisingperspectivesforestablishingintegratedtechnologysystemforexcavation.","container-title":"AutomationinConstruction","DOI":"10.1016/j.autcon.2020.103490","ISSN":"0926-5805","journalAbbreviation":"AutomationinConstruction","language":"en","page":"103490","source":"ScienceDirect","title":"Riskassessmentandmanagementofexcavationsystembasedonfuzzysettheoryandmachinelearningmethods","volume":"122","author":[{"family":"Lin","given":"Song-Shun"},{"family":"Shen","given":"Shui-Long"},{"family":"Zhou","given":"Annan"},{"family":"Xu","given":"Ye-Shuang"}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2021",2,1]]}},"label":"page"},{"id":133,"uris":["/users/local/SKYr5Sg2/items/K8DPSYMC"],"uri":["/users/local/SKYr5Sg2/items/K8DPSYMC"],"itemData":{"id":133,"type":"article-journal","abstract":"Undertheguidanceandpracticeofleanproduction,justintimeproductionandotheradvancedtheories,therelationshipbetweenenterprisesisbecomingmoreandmoreclosely.Inordertocopewithmorefiercemarketcompetition,manufacturingenterprisesbegantostrengthencooperationwithpartnersinthesupplychain,gatherresources,improvecompetitivenessandjointlyfightagainstcompetitors.Inthesedecades,thecompetitionamongenterprisesisgraduallyreplacedbythecompetitionamongsupplychains.Inthispaper,theauthormakesquantitativeanalysisofenterprisechainriskbasedonSVMalgorithmandmathematicalfuzzyset.Supportvectormachine(SVM)isamachinelearningmethod,hasstronggeneralizationabilityandaccuracy.Byanalyzingdexterityaffectsthenormaloperationofthesupplychainriskfactors,weusesimulatedannealing–mathematicalfuzzyoftheriskevaluation,itindicatesthatthemodelinriskassessmentisapplicablethroughempiricalresearch.Accordingtothedataobtained,thesimulatedannealing–supportvectormachineevaluationmodelweretrainedandtested;theexplanationonthechoiceofkernelfunctionoftheprocessofconstructionoftheevaluationmodel,theparametersofthemodeltodeterminesomekeyproblems.","container-title":"JournalofIntelligent&FuzzySystems","DOI":"10.3233/JIFS-189054","ISSN":"10641246,18758967","issue":"4","journalAbbreviation":"IFS","page":"5773-5783","source":"DOI.org(Crossref)","title":"QuantitativeanalysisofenterprisechainriskbasedonSVMalgorithmandmathematicalfuzzyset","volume":"39","author":[{"family":"Sun","given":"Gebing"}],"editor":[{"family":"Kolivand","given":"Hoshang"},{"family":"Balas","given":"ValentinaE."},{"family":"Paul","given":"Anand"},{"family":"Ramachandran","given":"Varatharajan"}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2020",10,21]]}},"label":"page"}],"schema":"/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[9,10]和故障树ADDINZOTERO_ITEMCSL_CITATION{"citationID":"zRRdUQsk","properties":{"formattedCitation":"\\super[11,12]\\nosupersub{}","plainCitation":"[11,12]","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":130,"uris":["/users/local/SKYr5Sg2/items/5NA7TPU9"],"uri":["/users/local/SKYr5Sg2/items/5NA7TPU9"],"itemData":{"id":130,"type":"article-journal","abstract":"Theuseofcontainersintheworldisincreasingeveryyearinlinewithinternationaltradeflows.Inverycomplexcontainerterminaloperations,theriskofworkaccidentsisinevitableandcanhappenatanytime.Therefore,thispaperaimedtoidentifyaccidentsandpotentialrisksoccurringinthecontainerterminals.Forthecasestudy,theanalysiswasusedthedataofaccidentsduringfiveyearsinoneofthemajorcontainerterminalsinIndonesia.Riskassessmentiscarriedoutusingtheriskmatrixmethodtogetthelevelofrisk.TheriskthathasthehighestlevelisanalyzedbyusingtheFaultTreeAnalysismethod.Fromtheresultsoftheriskassessmentshowsthecontainerfelltotheberthwhenloadingandunloadinghavethehighestriskvalue.WhiletheresultsoftheFaultTreeAnalysisshowthattrafficaccidentsarethebiggestpotentialrisk,whichis41.8%comparedtootheraccidents.Moreover,humanfactorsespeciallyduetothenegligenceinoperatingvehiclesorequipmentaswellasthedamageofequipmentwerethehighestcommoncausesofaccidentsinthecontainerterminal.Basedontheseresultsthecontributionofferedistheriskcontroloptionsforterminaloperatorstoreducethepossibilityofsafetyfailureinthecontainerterminal.","container-title":"JournalofMarineScienceandEngineering","DOI":"10.3390/jmse8060466","issue":"6","language":"en","note":"number:6\npublisher:MultidisciplinaryDigitalPublishingInstitute","page":"466","source":"","title":"RiskAssessmentofWorkAccidentinContainerTerminalsUsingtheFaultTreeAnalysisMethod","volume":"8","author":[{"family":"Budiyanto","given":"MuhammadArif"},{"family":"Fernanda","given":"Haris"}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2020",6]]}},"label":"page"},{"id":129,"uris":["/users/local/SKYr5Sg2/items/QEW4U94V"],"uri":["/users/local/SKYr5Sg2/items/QEW4U94V"],"itemData":{"id":129,"type":"article-journal","container-title":"MathematicalBiosciencesandEngineering","DOI":"10.3934/mbe.2020130","ISSN":"1551-0018","issue":"3","language":"en","page":"2402-2417","source":"DOI.org(Crossref)","title":"Anovelgroupdecisionmakingmethodforairportoperationalriskmanagement","volume":"17","author":[{"family":"Sun","given":"Bo"},{"family":"Wei","given":"Ming"},{"family":"Wu","given":"Wei"},{"family":"Jing","given":"Binbin"},{"literal":"1.SchoolofAirtrafficManagement,CivilAviationUniversityofChina,Tianjin300300,China"},{"literal":"2.SchoolofTransportation,NantongUniversity,Nantong226019,China"},{"literal":"3.CAACKeylaboratoryofGeneralAviationOperation(CivilAviationManagementInstituteofChina),Beijing102202,China"}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2020"]]}},"label":"page"}],"schema":"/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[11,12]等。在工程项目建设中，EPC模式逐渐被采用ADDINZOTERO_ITEMCSL_CITATION{"citationID":"kIFKy6E8","properties":{"formattedCitation":"\\super[13,14]\\nosupersub{}","plainCitation":"[13,14]","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":136,"uris":["/users/local/SKYr5Sg2/items/WRC7ELFG"],"uri":["/users/local/SKYr5Sg2/items/WRC7ELFG"],"itemData":{"id":136,"type":"article-journal","abstract":"近年来，以“设计-采购-施工（EPC）”为代表的项目总承包模式发展迅速，总承包商作为项目建设各环节的责任主体，关系到整个项目的质量和成本，做好总承包商的选择至关重要。立足于EPC项目业主的角度构建指标体系，通过COWA算子对指标进行赋权，并将累积前景理论和灰靶理论相结合构建EPC项目总承包商选择模型，考虑到决策环境中决策信息的不完全性和认知的不充分性，以区间灰数为描述语言构造决策矩阵，将评价者期望靶心作为参考点，进而确定正负前景评价矩阵，根据综合前景值对EPC总承包企业排序。通过算例进行演算，验证了该模型的适用性及可行性。","container-title":"数学的实践与认识","ISSN":"1000-0984","language":"中文","page":"1-12","source":"CNKI","title":"基于灰靶理论的EPC项目总承包商优选","author":[{"family":"王","given":"志强"},{"family":"王","given":"陶陶"},{"family":"刘","given":"硕"}]},"label":"page"},{"id":108,"uris":["/users/local/SKYr5Sg2/items/ZHDJ7F5Y"],"uri":["/users/local/SKYr5Sg2/items/ZHDJ7F5Y"],"itemData":{"id":108,"type":"article-journal","abstract":"EPC工程风险因素复杂,总承包商要成功完成项目,必须具备强大的综合实力,正确评估和防范风险。文章从承包商投标决策到项目收尾进行了全过程风险识别,然后,克服主客观单一因素影响,采取博弈论纳什均衡理论进行综合赋权,最后,通过考虑风险概率和风险损失来计算风险值。在此基础上,以中国在非洲某EPC工程为例,对该评价方法的可行性合理性进行验证。","container-title":"企业技术开发","ISSN":"1006-8937","issue":"02","language":"中文;","page":"15-19+31","source":"CNKI","title":"基于承包商视角的EPC工程全过程风险评估","volume":"38","author":[{"family":"侯","given":"思婷"},{"family":"李","given":"明顺"}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2019"]]}},"label":"page"}],"schema":"/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}[13,14]。作为一种快速项目交付模式，EPC方法可以促使承包商能够同时承担完成设计、采购和施工任务，达到实现早期建设者参与、节约成本和缩短工期的目的ADDINZOTERO_ITEMCSL_CITATION{"citationID":"XMlnWxpg","properties":{"formattedCitation":"\\super[15]\\nosupersub{}","plainCitation":"[15]","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":137,"uris":["/users/local/SKYr5Sg2/items/VT2DEMTB"],"uri":["/users/local/SKYr5Sg2/items/VT2DEMTB"],"itemData":{"id":137,"type":"article-jou