摩根士丹利-原子草原 The Atomic Steppe

TheAtomicSteppe

TALESFROMTHEEMERGINGWORLD|EMERGINGMARKETSEQUITYTEAM|September2026

NuclearpowerwasagrowingsourceofenergyintheUnitedStatesandgloballythroughthe1960sand1970s.However,givenrisingupfrontcostsandsafetyconcerns,includingthe1979ThreeMileIslandaccidentand1986Chernobyldisaster,nuclearfelloutoffavor.Fromthemid-1980sto2025,theshareofglobalelectricityproductionfromnucleardroppedfrom16%to9%(Display1).

DISPLAY1

ElectricityHasBeenLessReliantonNuclearPower

Nuclearshareoftotalelectricityglobally

18%

16%

14%

12%

10%

8%

6%

198519901995200020052010201520202025

Source:OurWorldinData.AsofJune30,2026.

Nuclearpowerisexperiencingarenaissancedrivenbytwokeyfactors:

1.Anincreaseddemandforelectricitytopowerartificialintelligence(AI).

2.Arenewedfocusonenergysecurityandgovernmentalsupport.

Approximately100newnuclearplantsarecurrentlyplannedworldwide,nearlymatchingthetotalnumberbuiltoverthelast20years.

WebelieveKazakhstanwillbeoneofthelargestbeneficiariesoftheapparentrevivalofnuclearenergy.Thecountryistheworld’slargesturaniumproducer,supportedbyabundantreserves,low-cost,efficientminingtechniquesandgeopoliticalneutrality.Risingdemandfornuclearshouldsupportthepriceofuraniumandproduction

volumes.Infact,Kazakhstancurrentlycontrolsroughly40%oftheworld’suraniumproduction,greaterthanOPEC’sshareoftheglobaloilsupply.

AUTHORS

PAULPSAILACo-Headof

EmergingMarketEquities

SEBASTIANSCHAFER

SeniorAssociate,

EmergingMarketEquities

TheAtomBehindtheAlgorithm

AIhasdramaticallychangedthepowerdebate.InSeptember2024,ConstellationEnergy,alargeU.S.producerofclean

energy,signeda20-yearpowerpurchaseagreementwith

MicrosofttorestarttheThreeMileIslandUnit1.The

symbolismwashardtomiss.Theoldreactor,shutdownin2019duetounprofitability,wasrevivedtomeetdatacenterdemand.AIhasshiftedthedebate,becausetrainingand

runninginferenceonmassivemodelsrequiresanincredibleamountofreliableenergy.

Lastyear,asingleChatGPTqueryconsumedapproximately0.3watt-hourspermessage.

1

Abillionofthesequeries

everydayannuallymeans109gigawatt-hours,orenoughpowerfor10,400

U.S.homes.2Models

areincreasingly

incorporatingimagesandvideoswhichrequireeven

moreenergyperquery.Additionally,heavierreasoning

capabilitiesandtheadventofAIagentswillbeafurthermultiplieronmemory,computingandpowerdemands.

Estimatesvary,butheavierreasoningtaskscouldconsumearound43timesmoreenergythansimpletasks.

3

Allof

thesedevelopmentspointtomorecompute(i.e.,resourcesfortraininganddeployingAI)andtherefore,morepower.

DatacentersalreadyaccountforhalfoftheelectricitydemandgrowthintheU.S.

4

Forhyperscalers,theissueisnotonlythequantityofelectricity,butalsoitsquality.DatacentersrequirestablebaseloadenergytokeephighperformanceequipmentrunningwithoutinterruptionasAIworkloadsexpand.Nuclearplantsoperateata93%

utilizationrate,easilyaheadofnaturalgas(57%),coal

(40%),wind(35%)andsolar(25%).Thatmakesnuclearthemostreliablelow-carbonenergyoptiontopowertheAIrevolution.

Oldobjectionsstillmatter.Nuclearpowerrequires

significantupfrontcapital,butitseconomicsbecome

strongeronceenergydensity,storageandtransmissioncostsareconsidered.Efficiencymeasuresthatcompareenergysuppliedwithenergyused,ranknuclearaheadofcoal,naturalgas,windandsolar.

5

EnergyNationalism

Formuchofthepastdecade,thecaseforenergytransitionrestedonthedesiretominimizeemissions.Now,thereisashiftinpriorities:thefocusismovingfromdecarbonizationtowardanemphasisonresilience,securityandsovereignty.Countrieswantcleanpower,buttheyalsowanttobe

lessexposedtovolatilehydrocarbonmarkets.ConflictsinUkraineandtheMiddleEasthavehighlightedtheneedforenergysystemswithoutdependencyonstrategicrivalsandgeopoliticallyvolatileregions.

Unlikewindandsolar,nuclearistheonlysourceofcleanpowerthatdoesnotdependonweatherconditions;italsohasalongrefuelingcycle,typicallyaround18months,andisinlinewithnearshoringindustrialpolicies.Inessence,

nucleargivesgovernmentssomethingmoreimportantthancosts:control.Anuclear-poweredcountryisnotbeholdentoweather,suddenmarketfluctuationsorenergyboycottsinitiatedbyrivals.

Asofmid-2026,Chinahasalmost40reactorsunder

construction.

6

Theprogramisasmuchaboutenergysecurityasitisaboutemissionsandreducingitsrelianceonfossil

fuels.

7

IntheU.S.,nuclearisnowseenasakeypillarof

nationalsecurity.TheTrumpadministrationhasoffered$17.5billioninlowinterestloanstospeedupconstructionof10reactors.AccordingtoU.S.EnergySecretaryChrisWright,

”

theloansareintendedto“unleashthenextAmericannuclearrenaissance.

1WedidthemathonAI’senergyfootprint.Here’sthestoryyouhaven’theard.MITTechnologyReview,May20,2025

2WedidthemathonAI’senergyfootprint.Here’sthestoryyouhaven’theard.MITTechnologyReview,May20,2025

3WedidthemathonAI’senergyfootprint.Here’sthestoryyouhaven’theard.MITTechnologyReview,May20,2025

4GlobalEnergyReview,InternationalEnergyAgency,2026

5I’veGotthePower!NuclearEnergyPrimer.Tranetal,BofAThematicResearch,2026

6PlansforNewReactorsWorldwide.WorldNuclearAssociation,August5,2026

7China’sNuclearEnergyPrioritiesUnderIts15thFive-YearPlan.CenterforStrategicandInternationalStudies,May11,2026

2MORGANSTANLEYINVESTMENTMANAGEMENT|EMERGINGMARKETSEQUITYTEAM

DISPLAY2

KazakhstanIstheLeaderinGlobalUraniumProduction

In2024,Kazakhstanaccountedfor39%ofuraniumproductionglobally

2%-1%

4%7%

8%

39%

24%

12%

3%

KazakhstanCanadaNamibiaAustraliaUzbekistan(est.)RussiaChina(est.)

Nigerlndia(est.)SouthAfrica(est.)Ukraine(est.)USAOthers

Source:W.As

ofMarch31,2026.Forecasts/estimatesarebasedoncurrentmarketconditions,subjecttochangeandmaynotnecessarilycometopass.

AnEmergingNuclearPower

Whostandstobenefitfromthisreturntonuclearpower?Itmaysurpriseinvestorsthatthemostcompellingopportunityliesnotindevelopedorevenemergingmarkets.Instead,weseeKazakhstan,anoverlookedfrontiermarket,asamajor

beneficiaryofrisingnucleardemand.

Today,thecentralAsianrepublicproducesapproximately39%ofglobaluraniumsupply(Display2)fromjust15%ofglobalreserves.8

Kazakhstan’sdominancerestsonitsaccessiblereservesandlow-costminingmethods.Thecountry’suraniumdepositsareidealforin-siturecovery,aprocesswhereliquidsolutionsareinjectedintotheorebodyforextraction.ThatcostadvantagehasturnedKazakhstanintoakeysupplierforglobaluraniumambitions.ItsstrongpositionhasledtoanaccumulationofinvestmentandtradefromChina,theU.S.,Russia,IndiaandrecentlyJapan.9Chinaisespeciallydependent,whereroughlytwo-thirdsofitsimportednaturaluraniumcomesfrom

Kazakhstan.10EventheU.S.imports35%ofitsuraniumfromKazakhstan.11Astana,thecountry’scapital,hasclearly

benefitedfromthesecurityinterestsoflargerpowers,

positioningitselfasaneutralsuppliertomultiplecountriesratherthanasatelliteofanyonebloc.

Kazakhstanisnotwithoutrisk.Uraniumlogisticshave

historicallydependedonroutesthroughRussia.Investorsneedtoaccountforproductionguidance,joint-venturestructures,taxpolicyandthecountry’sgeopoliticalbalancingact.

Webelievethoserisksdonotfullywarrantthedegree

ofdiscounttoday.Kazakhstan’sscale,costadvantage

andstrategicneutralitymakeitdifficulttoignore.The

marketshaveaggressivelypricedinafavorableoutlook

innuclear-relatednamesinCanadaandtheU.S.,while

Kazakhstanremainsanoverlookedbeneficiaryofthenuclearinvestmentcase.

Theworldneedsmoreelectricityatatimewhenenergy

generationandsupplyarebecomingnationalsecurity

issues.Climategoalsrequirelow-carbonenergywhiledatacentersrequireastablebaseloadpower.Nuclearsitsattheintersectionofalltheseneeds,andKazakhstanisreadytoreapthebenefits.

8W.As

ofMarch31,2026.

9Kazakh-Japanesenuclearcooperationhighlightedduringpresidentialvisit.WorldNuclearNews,December23,2025

10ToSecureKazakhstan’sUranium,ChinesePlayersWereCompelledtoAccommodateLocalPartners.CarnegieEndowmentforInternationalPeace,March26,2024.

11I’veGotthePower!NuclearEnergyPrimer.Tranetal,BofAThematicResearch,2026

EMERGINGMARKETSEQUITYTEAM|MORGANSTANLEYINVESTMENTMANAGEMENT3

4MORGANSTANLEYINVESTMENTMANAGEMENT|EMERGINGMARKETSEQUITYTEAM

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