银行行业2026年中报总结:趋势向好分化加剧_第1页
银行行业2026年中报总结:趋势向好分化加剧_第2页
银行行业2026年中报总结:趋势向好分化加剧_第3页
银行行业2026年中报总结:趋势向好分化加剧_第4页
银行行业2026年中报总结:趋势向好分化加剧_第5页
已阅读5页,还剩54页未读 继续免费阅读

下载本文档

版权说明:本文档由用户提供并上传,收益归属内容提供方,若内容存在侵权,请进行举报或认领

文档简介

目录索引TOC\o"1-1"\h\z\u一、整体:营收高,利润稳,息差拖累逐季消退 6二、规模:降速提,结构调,存款非银化延续 17三、息差:环比升1BP,资收益率下行趋缓 24四、非息:中收增边际回落金市贡献分化 31五、资产质量:表平稳,前分化 44六、投资建议:景度延续,绩分化加剧 55七、风险提示 60图表索引图1:42家上银行合计2026H1业绩拆分 12图2:6家国有大行2026H1绩拆分 12图3:9家股份行2026H1业拆分 12图4:17家城行2026H1业拆分 12图5:10家农行2026H1业驱动拆分 13图6:42家上银行合计2026Q2单季度绩拆分 13图7:6家国有大行2026Q2季度业绩拆分 13图8:9家股份行2026Q2单度业绩拆分 13图9:17家城行2026Q2季度业绩拆分 14图10:10家农行2026Q2季度业绩驱动拆分 14图11:42家上市银生息资同比增速 19图12:42家上市银单季度他非息/归母净润 38图13:42家上市银单季度他非息/归母净润环比变化 38图14:42家上市银单季度他综合收益/归净利润 39图15:42家上市银单季度他综合收益/归净利润环比化 39图16:不类型A股市银单季度其他非息对母净利润速贡献与十年国开率 40图17:不类型A股市银单季度其他非息同增速与十国开利率 40图18:逾率(%) 50图19:期90+贷/不良 50图20:核转出率(测值) 50图21:不生成率(测值,%) 50图22:上银行合计及板信用成本(测算值) 54图23:上银行合计及板拨备覆盖率(%) 54表1:上市银行营、PPOP和归母净利润同比增及变化(位:pct) 9表2:分板块累计绩同比增(单位:pct) 10表3:子板块单季业绩同比速(单位:pct) 11表4:累计业绩同拆分 15表5:单季度业绩比拆分 16表6:子板块生息产分项余增速、结构、增量增量结构变化(单位:亿元,pct) 19表7:子板块贷款项余额增、结构、增量、增结构及变(26H1,单位亿元,pct) 20表8:子板块计息债分项余增速、结构、增量增量结构变化(单位:亿元,pct) 22表9:子板块存款项余额增、结构、增量、增结构及变(26H1,单位亿元,pct) 23表10:子块累计净息、利差、生息资产收率、计息债成本率测算值(位:bp) 25表11:子块单季度净差净利差、生息资产益率、计负债成本率测算值单位:bp) 26表12:上银行生息资收率、计息负债成本驱动因素解(单位:bp,2026H1VS2025A) 27表13:上银行息差排及化 28表14:上银行各类生资收益率及变化(26H1,单位:bp) 29表15:上银行各类计负成本率及变化(26H1,单位:bp) 30表16:子块累计业绩比速(单位:pct) 32表17:子块单季度业同增速(单位:pct) 33表18:上银行手续费佣收入同比增速 34表19:上银行手续费佣收入增速及结构(26H1,亿) 35表20:上银行金融投结及收益(2026H1) 36表21:42家上市银单季度融投资收益增量结构 37表22:AC投资益/利润(累计) 41表23:OCI投资收益/利润总(累计) 42表24:上银行金市浮情(26H1) 43表25:不贷款余额、良款率及其变化(单:百万元,bp) 45表26:关类贷款余额关类贷款占比及其变(单位:万元,bp) 46表27:逾贷款余额、期款占比及其变化(位:百万,bp) 47表28:重+逾类贷款余额重组+逾期贷款/不贷款及变化(单位:百万,bp) 48表29:不新生成率、用本率及其变化 49表30:上银行及子板对贷款分行业类型不率(26H1) 51表31:上银行及子板对贷款分行业类型不率变化(26H1-25A,单位:pct) 52表32:上银行及子板对贷款分行业类型不率变化(26H1-25A,单位:pct) 53表33:A股行26H1业绩一览 56表34:A股行26H1息差模增速一览 57表35:A股行26H1资产指标一览 58表36:A股行26H1资本红及估值一览 59一、整体:营收高增,利润稳定,息差拖累逐季消退2026830家A2026WindiFinD。2026年上半年,42家A股上市银行合计营收、PPOP、归母净利润增速分别为+7.40%、+9.83%、+2.96%,26Q1分别变动-0.19pct+0.00pctPPOP7.22%9.83%、2.92%26Q1-0.37pct+0.01pct-0.08pct从422626H18.pt28ct45ct、2.08pct、1.21pct;421.39%,同比回落-0.4BP1.0BP,对归母净利润增长拖累从26Q1的2.30pct收窄至26H1的0.34pct;其他非息方面,上半年债市利率震荡,受去年同期高基数影响股份行、城农商行板块其他非息负增长,而大行得益于债券投资基本盘稳固且浮盈充足,其他非息延续高增,带动行业整体其他非息正增长,驱动归母净利润增长0.30pct。边际来看,26H1相比26Q1,业绩增长的正向驱动有:(1)净息差负贡献由2.30pct收敛至0.34pct,环比+1.95pct,26Q2单季已转为1.01pct的正贡献,环比+3.30pct,一方面,政策端持续推进贷款价格“反内卷”、善;(2)6.46pct收窄至4.35pct+2.11pct,26Q22.17pct,单季环比+4.30pct,预计与信贷投放季节性放缓,以及金融投资/其他资产减值准备计提情况有关。负向驱动有:(1)0.20pct2.08pct,环比+1.88pct,26Q24.02pct+3.82pct;(2)9.50pct收窄至8.70pct,环比-Q20.25pct1.21pct+0.95pct,主要是去年同期+9.38%+2.80%+8.10%+2.03%,26Q1+0.33pct-0.87pct、-1.62pct-0.53pct,均有所回落;归母净利润同比增长+4.41%、-2.56%、+7.26%、+3.84%,增速环比26Q1分别变动+0.77pct、-2.30pct、-0.09pct、+0.05pct,国有行业绩增长继续回暖,股份行业绩明显回落,而城农商行基本稳定。,(1)下坚持审慎计提减值损失,以丰补歉主动增厚拨备安全垫。(3)股份行业绩延续负增长,且拖累因素较多,规模扩张温和提速但仍处行业下游,零售需求不足和资产质量历史包袱消化拖累息差企稳并侵蚀利润表现,此(4)动较大。(1)421926Q126Q126H126Q1(2)增速绝对值方面,/山东/4226H18%9(12.1%)(10.3%)、杭州银行(9.9%)(8.5%)、南京银行(8.2%)、江苏银(8.1%);10%10(13.1%)(12.7%)(10.7%)(10.6%)6整体来看,26H1上市银行经营景气度延续,受益于息差拖累逐季消退,营收延续高增,利润增速环比稳定。盈兑现空间及偏好影响表现分化,除国有行延续高增外,其他子板块主动/个股层面,优质区域性银行表现继续领先:(1)增幅变化方面,42家上市银行中有25家26H1年归母净利253826H1253526H125年增速10%6(10.4%)(10.3%)10%12(41.5%)(35.3%)、厦门(10.9%)(10.2%);营收和利润增速实现双正增的有25家。整体来看,26H1上市银行经营景气度显著回升,主要是息差收窄压力大幅缓解带动主营业务收入大幅反弹,以及非息业务表现相对韧性,行业营收显著回暖、净利润增长边际改善。26年为“十五五”表1:上市银行营收、PPOP和归母净利润同比增速及变化(单位:pct)营业收入同比增速拨备前利润同比增速归母净利润同比增速25Q1-325A26Q126H1环比25Q1-325A26Q126H1环比25Q1-325A26Q126H1环比建设银行0.82%1.88%11.15%10.72%-0.431.03%1.70%13.51%13.07%-0.440.62%0.99%3.53%4.62%1.09中国银行2.69%4.48%8.44%8.48%0.04-0.22%1.68%7.06%9.73%2.671.08%2.18%4.17%5.10%0.93邮储银行1.82%1.99%7.61%7.26%-0.348.16%6.59%19.43%17.31%-2.120.98%1.07%1.90%4.62%2.72交通银行1.80%2.02%4.89%6.73%1.840.81%1.60%9.86%10.93%1.071.90%2.18%3.11%4.04%0.92招商银行-0.51%0.01%3.81%4.83%1.02-1.16%-0.32%4.29%5.63%1.340.52%1.21%1.52%2.02%0.50兴业银行-1.82%0.24%-1.06%-0.25%0.81-2.56%0.19%-0.25%0.25%0.510.12%0.34%0.15%-4.66%-4.81浦发银行1.88%1.88%1.42%3.55%2.140.66%1.21%4.11%7.53%3.4310.21%10.52%1.49%4.08%2.59民生银行6.74%4.82%2.74%3.84%1.1010.91%8.68%6.38%6.42%0.05-6.38%-5.37%-9.64%-8.62%1.02光大银行-7.94%-6.72%-3.85%-4.32%-0.47-9.43%-6.43%-1.82%-3.21%-1.38-3.63%-6.88%-8.06%-24.01%-15.94平安银行-9.78%-10.40%4.65%1.78%-2.88-9.84%-11.94%4.38%2.73%-1.65-3.50%-4.21%3.03%3.32%0.29华夏银行-8.79%-5.39%35.33%12.71%-22.62-10.05%-7.86%48.21%18.93%-29.28-2.86%-1.72%-1.50%-18.35%-16.85浙商银行-6.78%-7.59%0.50%0.02%-0.47-6.31%-11.50%1.53%0.63%-0.90-9.59%-14.85%0.72%2.05%1.32北京银行-1.08%-3.39%14.43%5.60%-8.83-0.83%-5.32%23.53%8.85%-14.670.26%-23.73%5.55%5.63%0.07江苏银行7.83%8.82%8.41%9.11%0.705.91%5.91%8.70%11.85%3.158.32%8.35%8.20%8.09%-0.11上海银行4.04%3.35%4.25%5.48%1.235.21%4.48%4.60%6.36%1.762.77%2.69%0.66%0.51%-0.15宁波银行8.32%8.01%10.21%11.54%1.3312.88%13.05%15.35%16.91%1.568.39%8.13%10.30%12.12%1.82南京银行8.79%10.48%13.54%10.94%-2.6011.71%13.45%18.39%14.49%-3.908.06%8.08%8.05%8.17%0.12杭州银行1.35%1.09%4.29%4.75%0.461.59%0.11%6.43%6.35%-0.0814.53%12.05%10.09%9.87%-0.22成都银行3.01%2.70%6.54%4.13%-2.422.39%3.28%6.80%4.71%-2.095.03%3.31%4.81%4.35%-0.46长沙银行1.29%-1.79%5.64%4.01%-1.630.71%-0.83%6.10%5.85%-0.256.00%3.59%5.77%5.06%-0.72重庆银行10.40%10.48%11.57%10.80%-0.7810.50%10.70%12.72%10.16%-2.5510.19%10.49%10.40%10.28%-0.12贵阳银行-13.73%-12.94%14.60%10.87%-3.73-18.61%-19.02%19.10%12.62%-6.48-1.39%1.66%2.37%-4.61%-6.98苏州银行2.02%1.08%10.94%13.08%2.147.74%3.75%16.70%19.12%2.427.12%5.53%8.23%8.51%0.28青岛银行5.03%7.97%7.30%9.15%1.857.63%14.64%9.62%10.49%0.8715.54%21.66%21.16%18.08%-3.08齐鲁银行4.63%5.12%13.02%10.55%-2.464.01%3.89%13.89%10.47%-3.4215.14%14.58%14.01%16.06%2.06郑州银行3.91%0.34%1.31%1.04%-0.275.97%2.36%5.80%2.75%-3.041.56%1.03%5.37%3.03%-2.34兰州银行-2.14%-0.75%-0.20%6.60%6.80-3.05%-1.01%1.90%10.96%9.060.65%-1.22%-4.79%-8.95%-4.16西安银行39.11%21.68%41.54%8.77%-32.7751.45%27.36%53.51%11.80%-41.715.51%3.57%6.16%2.14%-4.02厦门银行3.02%1.75%25.05%19.60%-5.456.44%2.50%32.58%24.16%-8.410.25%1.55%7.42%7.31%-0.11渝农商行0.67%1.37%8.39%7.81%-0.590.85%1.90%12.87%11.59%-1.293.74%5.35%5.07%6.09%1.02沪农商行-3.18%-2.89%1.23%1.82%0.58-1.36%-2.49%4.57%3.65%-0.920.78%0.20%0.73%0.87%0.14青农商行-4.92%-9.12%-8.69%-7.57%1.12-7.80%-17.11%-12.35%-13.92%-1.573.57%9.51%5.60%2.84%-2.77常熟银行8.15%6.51%6.74%6.05%-0.7010.09%8.69%9.64%9.98%0.3412.82%10.65%11.10%10.64%-0.46紫金银行-5.42%-7.72%2.22%-7.94%-10.15-5.68%-10.02%5.73%-8.00%-13.73-10.90%-23.35%1.62%3.33%1.71无锡银行3.87%1.98%2.60%3.01%0.413.91%2.21%3.60%2.61%-0.993.78%2.53%2.73%2.84%0.10苏农银行0.08%0.92%1.22%1.00%-0.235.38%0.92%2.72%-1.68%-4.405.01%5.05%5.05%3.02%-2.04张家港行1.18%0.75%-4.43%-5.21%-0.780.34%1.64%1.03%-4.01%-5.055.79%5.35%2.50%2.71%0.20瑞丰银行1.03%0.53%-3.68%-1.96%1.71-2.76%-1.93%-1.74%-3.14%-1.405.85%2.30%-0.50%0.94%1.45江阴银行6.17%4.11%8.18%1.98%-6.2110.89%5.67%8.99%1.73%-7.2613.38%0.62%2.50%2.34%-0.16国有大行1.87%2.44%9.04%9.38%0.331.44%1.71%11.39%12.19%0.801.22%1.65%3.63%4.41%0.77股份行-2.56%-1.68%3.66%2.80%-0.87-2.87%-2.02%5.39%4.60%-0.80-0.17%-0.07%-0.26%-2.56%-2.30城商行4.67%4.10%9.72%8.10%-1.625.61%4.53%12.99%10.68%-2.316.68%3.15%7.35%7.26%-0.09农商行-0.03%-0.65%2.55%2.03%-0.530.45%-1.21%5.03%3.04%-2.003.60%2.97%3.78%3.84%0.05上市银行合计0.90%1.42%7.59%7.40%-0.190.63%0.89%9.83%9.83%0.001.46%1.41%3.00%2.96%-0.04数据来源:iFinD,广发证券发展研究中心;“环比”指26H1较26Q1变动幅度表2:分板块累计业绩同比增速(单位:pct)同比业绩增速2024Q1-32024A2025Q12025H12025Q1-32025A2026Q12026H1环比变化国有大行-1.19%-0.36%-1.51%1.87%1.87%2.44%9.04%9.38%0.33股份行-2.49%-1.31%-3.86%-2.22%-2.56%-1.68%3.66%2.80%-0.87营业收入城商行4.04%6.47%2.96%5.22%4.67%4.10%9.72%8.10%-1.62农商行2.15%3.50%0.21%0.93%-0.03%-0.65%2.55%2.03%-0.53上市银行-1.04%0.03%-1.71%1.05%0.90%1.42%7.59%7.40%-0.19国有大行-2.84%-1.58%-3.38%-2.42%-1.96%-1.47%7.66%9.00%1.34股份行-5.17%-4.89%-0.53%-1.76%-0.86%0.02%3.52%4.21%0.70净利息收入城商行0.37%2.57%8.45%8.75%10.30%11.15%13.76%14.95%1.19农商行-4.13%-2.80%-0.91%-0.56%0.12%0.86%7.69%7.67%-0.02上市银行-3.19%-2.10%-1.65%-1.29%-0.62%0.00%7.20%8.35%1.15国有大行4.46%4.00%3.76%14.94%14.10%15.61%12.67%10.33%-2.33股份行3.37%6.86%-10.04%-3.08%-5.99%-5.14%3.97%0.08%-3.89非息收入城商行12.89%16.38%-8.04%-1.90%-7.42%-11.67%0.17%-7.22%-7.40农商行25.91%29.52%3.18%4.85%-0.45%-5.34%-10.49%-12.03%-1.54上市银行5.24%6.52%-1.84%7.02%4.98%5.39%8.53%5.16%-3.37国有大行-8.91%-7.87%-1.45%4.69%5.93%7.15%6.30%-0.26%-6.56股份行-14.37%-12.32%-0.94%-0.65%1.30%3.18%3.89%3.25%-0.64净手续费收入城商行-10.70%-12.29%10.32%4.13%8.85%13.36%8.83%5.73%-3.10农商行-4.62%-1.24%4.66%0.95%3.90%4.24%10.22%6.74%-3.48上市银行-10.75%-9.52%-0.73%3.04%4.60%6.13%5.80%1.10%-4.70国有大行26.82%21.90%12.85%28.83%23.92%25.24%22.36%22.00%-0.36股份行25.01%29.30%-17.57%-5.00%-12.07%-11.73%4.04%-2.53%-6.57其他非息收入城商行22.05%26.71%-13.84%-3.70%-12.05%-17.91%-3.33%-11.40%-8.08农商行37.28%40.51%2.76%5.85%-1.57%-7.75%-16.56%-16.63%-0.06上市银行25.69%25.57%-3.08%10.80%5.33%4.76%11.68%8.74%-2.94国有大行-2.82%-1.70%-2.48%1.98%1.44%1.71%11.39%12.19%0.80股份行-3.09%-1.29%-3.88%-2.55%-2.87%-2.02%5.39%4.60%-0.80拨备前利润城商行4.50%7.02%4.42%6.56%5.61%4.53%12.99%10.68%-2.31农商行3.42%3.32%0.90%1.30%0.45%-1.21%5.03%3.04%-2.00上市银行-2.12%-0.70%-2.15%1.14%0.63%0.89%9.83%9.83%0.00国有大行0.79%1.78%-2.09%-0.13%1.22%1.65%3.63%4.41%0.77股份行0.85%1.80%-2.05%0.27%-0.17%-0.07%-0.26%-2.56%-2.30归母净利润城商行6.93%7.54%5.49%6.74%6.68%3.15%7.35%7.26%-0.09农商行4.88%5.70%4.77%4.36%3.60%2.97%3.78%3.84%0.05上市银行1.45%2.37%-1.20%0.77%1.46%1.41%3.00%2.96%-0.04数据来源:iFinD,广发证券发展研究中心;“环比”指26H1较26Q1变动幅度表3:子板块单季度业绩同比增速(单位:pct)单季度业绩增速2024Q32024A2025Q12025Q22025Q32025A2026Q12026Q2环比变化国有大行1.77%2.37%-1.51%5.43%1.89%4.21%9.04%9.70%0.66股份行-1.57%2.57%-3.86%-0.57%-3.30%1.06%3.66%1.95%-1.71营业收入城商行2.61%14.69%2.96%7.49%3.54%2.35%9.72%6.53%-3.19农商行-0.46%8.16%0.21%1.65%-2.11%-2.68%2.55%1.51%-1.04上市银行0.89%3.55%-1.71%3.90%0.59%3.06%7.59%7.22%-0.37国有大行-2.57%2.39%-3.38%-1.46%-1.03%-0.02%7.66%10.34%2.68股份行-4.35%-4.01%-0.53%-2.99%0.95%2.71%3.52%4.92%1.40净利息收入城商行1.49%9.54%8.45%9.05%13.34%13.61%13.76%16.14%2.38农商行-3.64%1.44%-0.91%-0.20%1.46%3.13%7.69%7.65%-0.04上市银行-2.70%1.32%-1.65%-0.93%0.73%1.88%7.20%9.51%2.31国有大行20.67%2.31%3.76%28.36%12.16%21.35%12.67%8.07%-4.59股份行5.44%19.86%-10.04%4.12%-12.99%-2.41%3.97%-3.41%-7.37非息收入城商行5.49%30.20%-8.04%4.33%-20.71%-26.25%0.17%-13.84%-14.02农商行12.96%47.36%3.18%6.49%-14.95%-26.02%-10.49%-13.50%-3.01上市银行13.55%11.33%-1.84%16.92%0.19%6.84%8.53%2.00%-6.53国有大行-6.04%-3.14%-1.45%13.99%9.37%12.44%6.30%-8.85%-15.15股份行-7.75%-3.94%-0.94%-0.33%5.50%10.03%3.89%2.55%-1.34净手续费收入城商行-18.69%-20.85%10.32%-2.73%21.82%40.71%8.83%1.83%-7.00农商行-5.49%19.02%4.66%-3.45%11.81%5.89%10.22%2.27%-7.95上市银行-7.31%-4.02%-0.73%8.13%8.59%12.48%5.80%-4.72%-10.53国有大行63.10%7.95%12.85%42.90%14.70%29.63%22.36%21.74%-0.62股份行22.40%43.68%-17.57%7.43%-30.91%-10.75%4.04%-7.52%-11.56其他非息收入城商行14.01%43.42%-13.84%6.32%-31.40%-35.82%-3.33%-17.87%-14.55农商行19.09%55.51%2.76%8.75%-22.01%-33.04%-16.56%-16.68%-0.12上市银行39.13%25.19%-3.08%23.79%-6.67%2.93%11.68%6.59%-5.09国有大行0.66%3.00%-2.48%6.96%0.25%2.80%11.39%13.01%1.62股份行-1.72%5.87%-3.88%-1.18%-3.57%1.04%5.39%3.80%-1.60拨备前利润城商行5.31%16.94%4.42%8.76%3.61%0.74%12.99%8.40%-4.58农商行-1.59%2.87%0.90%1.69%-1.49%-8.40%5.03%1.04%-3.99上市银行0.39%5.16%-2.15%4.71%-0.50%1.88%9.83%9.83%0.01国有大行4.13%4.99%-2.09%1.95%3.66%2.99%3.63%5.19%1.56股份行0.43%5.95%-2.05%3.15%-1.08%0.33%-0.26%-5.28%-5.03归母净利润城商行8.00%10.06%5.49%8.00%6.55%-11.05%7.35%7.16%-0.19农商行2.37%10.55%4.77%3.97%2.04%-0.54%3.78%3.89%0.11上市银行3.55%5.65%-1.20%2.92%2.80%1.26%3.00%2.92%-0.08数据来源:iFinD,广发证券发展研究中心;“环比”指26Q2较26Q1变动幅度图1:42家上银行计2026H1业绩分 图2:6家国大行2026H1业拆分12% 14%10%

12%10%8%8%6%6%4%4%2% 2%0%生净净其税息息手他金资差续收及产费支附规收加模入

8.7%3.4%3.0%9.1%8.7%3.4%3.0%9.1%5.1%4.4%本 备 收 计 入 提 比

净 少 利 数 润 股 东 净 利润

0%生 净 息 息 资 差 产 规 模

其 税 成 拨 有 净 少 他 金 本 备 效 利 数 收 及 收 计 税 润 股 支 附 入 提 率 东 加 比 净 润利润数据来源:iFinD、广发证券发展研究中心 数据来源:iFinD、广发证券发展研究中心图3:9家股行2026H1绩分 图4:17家城行2026H1业拆分6%5%4%3%2%1%0%-1%-2%-3%

5.2%

(2.6%) (2.6%)

16%14.2%14.2%7.5%7.3%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%生净净其税成息息手他金本资差续收及收产费支附入规收加比模入

拨 有 净 少 备 效 利 数 计 税 润 股 提 率 东 净 润利润

生净净其息息手他资差续收产费支规收模入

税 成 金 本 及 收 附 入 加 比

有 净 少 效 利 数 税 润 股 率 东 净 润利润数据来源:iFinD、广发证券发展研究中心 数据来源:iFinD、广发证券发展研究中心图5:10家农行2026H1业驱动拆分 图6:42家上银行计2026Q2单季业绩分7.6%3.7%7.6%3.7%3.8%8%7%6%5%4%3%2%1%0%模入

拨 有 净 少 备 效 利 数 计 税 润 股 提 率 东 净 润利润

11%8.5%3.6%8.5%3.6%2.9%7%5%3%1%-1%生息资产规模

净 净 息 手 差 续 费 收入

税 成 金 本 及 收 附 入 加 比

有 净 少 效 利 数 税 润 股 率 东 净 润利润数据来源:iFinD、广发证券发展研究中心 数据来源:iFinD、广发证券发展研究中心图7:6家国大行2026Q2单度业绩分 图8:9家股行2026Q2单季业绩拆分14%8.9%6.3%5.2%8.9%6.3%5.2%6%5.3%4%2%0%-2%-4%-6%(5.4%) (5.3%)10%8%6%4%2%0%生净净其税息息手他金资差续收及产费支附规收加模入

成 拨 本 备 收 计 入 提 比

净 少 利 数 润 股 东 净 利润

生净净其息息手他资差续收产费支规收模入

加比 净润利润数据来源:iFinD、广发证券发展研究中心 数据来源:iFinD、广发证券发展研究中心图9:17家城行2026Q2度业绩分 图10:10家农行2026Q2度业绩动拆分11.4%7.4%11.4%7.4%7.2%16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%生 息 资 产规模

净 其 手 他 续 收 费 支 收 入

成 拨 本 备 收 计 入 提 比

净 少 利 数 润 股 东 净 利润

9%7.0%3.7%7.0%3.7%3.9%7%6%5%4%3%2%1%0%生净净其税息息手他金资差续收及产费支附规收加模入

比 净润利润数据来源:iFinD、广发证券发展研究中心 数据来源:iFinD、广发证券发展研究中心表4:累计业绩同比拆分累计同比业绩拆分上市银行国有大行股份行城商行农商行上市银行国有大行股份行城商行农商行26H126H126H126H126H126Q126Q126Q126Q126Q1生息资产规模8.70%9.14%5.21%14.15%7.64%9.50%10.25%4.62%16.48%7.20%净息差-0.34%-0.13%-1.00%0.80%0.03%-2.30%-2.59%-1.10%-2.72%0.49%净手续费收入-1.21%-1.56%-0.18%-0.91%-0.07%-0.25%-0.26%0.07%-0.54%0.21%其他收支0.30%2.03%-1.01%-6.05%-5.94%0.36%1.28%-0.02%-3.47%-5.61%增值税及附加0.01%0.00%0.02%0.05%-0.06%-0.04%-0.08%0.03%0.06%-0.03%成本收入比2.38%2.73%1.56%2.63%1.43%2.56%2.78%1.80%3.17%2.77%拨备计提-4.35%-4.21%-6.78%-1.60%3.08%-6.46%-8.09%-4.82%-2.81%2.29%有效税率-2.08%-2.92%-0.39%-1.62%-2.37%-0.20%0.53%-0.77%-2.60%-3.50%净利润3.40%5.07%-2.58%7.46%3.74%3.16%3.83%-0.20%7.57%3.82%少数股东净利润-0.43%-0.66%0.02%-0.21%0.10%-0.17%-0.20%-0.06%-0.22%-0.04%归母净利润2.96%4.41%-2.56%7.26%3.84%3.00%3.63%-0.26%7.35%3.78%上市银行国有大行股份行城商行农商行上市银行国有大行股份行城商行农商行25A25A25A25A25A25H125H125H125H125H1生息资产规模8.47%9.06%4.46%14.74%7.50%8.45%9.06%4.38%14.90%7.13%净息差-8.47%-10.53%-4.44%-3.60%-6.64%-9.75%-11.49%-6.14%-6.15%-7.69%净手续费收入0.87%1.18%0.57%0.18%0.21%0.69%1.13%0.21%-0.47%0.11%其他收支-0.36%1.47%-2.75%-7.08%-1.86%1.11%2.52%-1.18%-2.88%1.36%增值税及附加-0.02%-0.02%0.00%-0.02%-0.11%0.03%0.04%0.01%-0.01%0.08%成本收入比0.39%0.55%0.15%0.31%-0.31%0.61%0.72%0.17%1.17%0.30%拨备计提-0.15%-0.87%2.20%-3.86%5.48%-0.13%-1.74%3.62%-2.22%5.53%有效税率0.76%0.93%-0.34%2.70%-1.30%-0.23%-0.34%-0.79%2.44%-2.83%净利润1.49%1.77%-0.17%3.38%2.97%0.79%-0.10%0.28%6.78%3.99%少数股东净利润-0.08%-0.12%0.10%-0.23%0.00%-0.02%-0.03%-0.02%-0.04%0.37%归母净利润1.41%1.65%-0.07%3.15%2.97%0.77%-0.13%0.27%6.74%4.36%数据来源:iFinD,广发证券发展研究中心表5:单季度业绩同比拆分单季度同比业绩拆分上市银行国有大行股份行城商行农商行上市银行国有大行股份行城商行农商行26Q226Q226Q226Q226Q226Q126Q126Q126Q126Q1生息资产规模8.50%8.92%5.29%11.35%7.05%9.50%10.14%4.97%13.94%7.07%净息差1.01%1.42%-0.37%4.79%0.60%-2.30%-2.48%-1.45%-0.18%0.63%净手续费收入-2.15%-2.86%-0.44%-1.26%-0.35%-0.25%-0.26%0.07%-0.54%0.21%其他收支0.23%2.78%-1.98%-8.59%-6.25%0.36%1.28%-0.02%-3.47%-5.61%增值税及附加0.05%0.08%0.01%0.05%-0.09%-0.04%-0.08%0.03%0.06%-0.03%成本收入比2.20%2.67%1.29%2.07%0.08%2.56%2.78%1.80%3.17%2.77%拨备计提-2.17%-0.36%-9.19%-0.39%3.90%-6.46%-8.09%-4.82%-2.81%2.29%有效税率-4.02%-6.32%-0.01%-0.66%-1.29%-0.20%0.53%-0.77%-2.60%-3.50%净利润3.64%6.33%-5.40%7.36%3.66%3.16%3.83%-0.20%7.57%3.82%少数股东净利润-0.72%-1.13%0.12%-0.19%0.23%-0.17%-0.20%-0.06%-0.22%-0.04%归母净利润2.92%5.19%-5.28%7.16%3.89%3.00%3.63%-0.26%7.35%3.78%上市银行国有大行股份行城商行农商行上市银行国有大行股份行城商行农商行25Q425Q425Q425Q425Q425Q225Q225Q225Q225Q2生息资产规模9.52%10.20%4.81%15.32%7.34%8.61%8.99%5.13%15.16%6.93%净息差-7.65%-10.23%-2.11%-1.71%-4.21%-9.55%-10.45%-8.11%-6.10%-7.13%净手续费收入1.21%1.32%1.17%1.27%0.12%1.27%2.03%0.48%-1.15%-0.22%其他收支-2.44%-1.03%-3.17%-12.10%-6.70%2.71%3.75%1.36%-0.03%2.05%增值税及附加-0.10%-0.11%-0.03%-0.05%-0.63%0.03%0.05%0.01%-0.01%0.18%成本收入比1.33%2.64%0.37%-1.99%-4.32%1.63%2.59%-0.03%0.90%-0.12%拨备计提-5.06%-4.71%-4.47%-14.14%3.55%-0.35%-3.02%5.81%-2.97%4.94%有效税率4.38%5.07%2.97%2.35%5.31%-1.53%-2.12%-1.54%2.44%-2.85%净利润1.21%3.16%-0.45%-11.05%0.47%2.84%1.81%3.09%8.22%3.78%少数股东净利润0.05%-0.17%0.78%0.00%-1.01%0.08%0.14%0.06%-0.22%0.19%归母净利润1.26%2.99%0.33%-11.05%-0.54%2.92%1.95%3.15%8.00%3.97%数据来源:iFinD,广发证券发展研究中心二、规模:降速提质,结构调优,存款非银化延续26Q2末,427.58%26Q11.48pct。26Q2末42A6.5%14.1%-12.0%3.2%,26Q1-0.5pct+0.1pct-22.8pct"+"2615.08万4.209.547,0007.401.321.953.72921亿元,1.094263.3%10.1pct17.5pct-22.1%、-5.5%。7.96%5.66%9.44%7.30%,26Q1末分别变动-1.96pct+0.73pct、-3.91pct+0.50pct。26Q20.6pct0.5pct7.02万7,4168,325亿元信贷增长边际放缓1,470亿元)(2,379亿元);6.17万56.7%1.941.805,144减3.15万亿元、1.69万亿元。26Q20.2pct3.9%0.1pct5.7%;26H11.242,345(4,706亿元对(886(3,2474,5351,2386521,174产同比+21.5%,上半年新增5,188亿元,增量占比24.2%,同比多增5,371亿元。城商行规模增速明显回落,贷款/金融投资/同业资产均同比少增。26Q2末贷款同比增速环比小幅回落15ct至00%42t至89%1.437%,2,178406920852亿元;6,25635.1%-5,640663减3,959亿元;其他资产新增895亿元,同比多增635亿元。/26Q20.4pct至7.0%,2.4pct7.6%;26H11,44052.5%177亿204210237新增金融1,52755.6%642-204-631-24亿元。4.2pct8.9%,预计与年初以来地方债供给节奏偏慢有关,同时贷款增速10.0%高于金融投资增速8.9%,随着地方专项债发18.3%6.9%“头雁”股份行生息26市银行合计978626.3%24.1%17.8%68.2%;对公房地产同比-3.6%1,023亿元。264221.8%7.6%6,4448,3582,3791,5576,2634,706261,7576,28826年上半年信用卡余额-9.8%,余额下降4,774亿元;此外,大力提振消费导向下消费贷、经营贷同比+7.6%、+6.4%,余额分别增加2,796亿元、6,318亿元,国有行为投放主力,分别高增18.7%、12.3%。图11:42家上市银行生息资产同比增速

生息资产同比增速国有大行 股份行 城商行 农商行 上市银行合计2022A 2023H1 2023A 2024H1 2024A 2025Q1 2025H1 2025Q1-3 2025A 2026Q1 2026H1数据来源:iFinD、广发证券发展研究中心表6:子板块生息资产分项余额增速、结构、增量、增量结构及变化(单位:亿元,pct)余额增速 余额结构 增量 增量占比26Q126H1环比26Q126H1环比26Q126H1同比26Q126H1同比贷款7.5%6.9%-0.658.6%58.6%0.154,65070,183-7,41664.6%64.5%11.0国有大行 17.7%18.3%0.530.9%31.7%0.836,15361,68319,42642.7%56.7%27.6同业资产4.8%-24.7%-29.54.5%3.8%-0.7-2,997-17,993-31,468-3.5%-16.5%-25.8其他0.8%-1.4%-2.36.1%5.9%-0.1-3,229-5,144-16,852-3.8%-4.7%-12.8贷款3.6%3.9%0.257.9%57.3%-0.612,22512,4062,34590.0%57.8%-4.4股份行 5.6%5.7%0.131.5%31.6%0.11,3014,535-1,2389.6%21.1%-14.6同业资产15.0%11.6%-3.46.6%6.5%-0.1-448-652-1,174-3.3%-3.0%-6.3其他3.6%21.5%18.04.1%4.7%0.65095,1885,3713.7%24.2%25.3贷款11.5%10.0%-1.549.4%49.9%0.68,64011,360-2,17853.2%63.7%17.0城商行 13.1%8.9%-4.239.4%39.6%0.24,8086,256-5,64029.6%35.1%-6.0同业资产34.1%7.3%-26.96.9%6.1%-0.71,605-663-3,9599.9%-3.7%-15.1其他9.6%11.6%2.04.4%4.3%-0.11,1938956357.3%5.0%4.1贷款7.4%7.0%-0.454.3%54.1%-0.31,2461,44017758.9%52.5%3.5金融投资农商行5.2%7.6%2.434.5%35.0%0.51,0291,52764248.6%55.6%21.3同业资产12.5%10.4%-2.16.8%6.7%-0.1-179-204-631-8.5%-7.4%-24.0其他3.9%4.1%0.24.3%4.2%-0.119-18-240.9%-0.7%-0.9贷款7.0%6.5%-0.557.5%57.4%-0.076,76195,389-7,07165.9%63.3%10.1上市银行合计金融投资14.1%14.1%-0.131.9%32.5%0.643,29174,00113,19037.2%49.1%17.5同业资产10.7%-12.0%-22.85.2%4.6%-0.6-2,019-19,511-37,232-1.7%-12.9%-22.1其他1.9%3.2%1.25.4%5.5%0.0-1,509921-10,870-1.3%0.6%-5.5数据来源:iFinD,广发证券发展研究中心;“环比”指26H1较26Q1变动幅度表7:子板块贷款分项余额增速、结构、增量、增量结构及变化(26H1,单位:亿元,pct)余额速 贷款 票据 对公 零售 基建 制造业 租赁服 房地产 按揭 消费 信用卡 经营贷国有行 6.9% 30.7% 8.5% 0.0% 5.6% 13.0% 14.1% -3.5% -4.3% 18.7% -13.9% 12.3%股份行 3.9% -12.9% 9.7% -2.9% 7.8% 11.3% 17.3% -6.1%-2.1% -2.1%-4.2% -2.3%城商行 10.0% 15.7% 15.0% -3.6% 11.8% 11.5% 19.4% 0.8% -2.3% -1.1% -25.4% -7.3%农商行 7.0% 5.6% 12.3% -2.4% 14.3% 5.8% 20.6% 11.4% -1.5% 0.5% -11.2% -3.8%上市行计 6.5% 21.8% 9.4% -1.0% 6.4% 12.3% 15.5% -3.6% -3.8% 7.6% -9.8% 6.4%同比国有大行-2.0-21.20.1-4.7--5.7-2.6-7.6-20.3-7.3股份行-3.6-0.5-0.88.5-4.3-8.4-1.00.70.6城商行-2.94.3-1.9-7.9-6.0-5.5-2.2-5.3-6.4-11.1-25.3-3.3农商行-3.111.8-0.79.0-7.2-0.8-2.9-4.4-4.8上市银行合计-1.5-2.60.0-4.6-2.01.23.5-5.2-3.7-5.5-10.5-3.6余额结构贷款票据对公零售基建制造业租赁商服房地产按揭消费信用卡经营贷国有大行100.0%7.1%61.6%31.3%21.5%11.0% 11.6%3.8%18.2%2.3%2.6%6.7%股份行100.0%3.3%59.9%36.9%12.2%12.7%11.4%5.5%15.2%3.4%7.9%8.6%城商行100.0%5.9%70.3%23.8%14.1%10.7%20.1%5.0%9.1%9.3%0.7%4.5%农商行100.0%10.0%61.2%28.8%8.5%13.4%13.2%6.1%9.2%6.0% 0.7%12.9%上市银行合计100.0%6.2%62.0%31.8%18.7%11.4%12.3%4.3%16.7%3.2%3.5%7.0%同比国有大行0.01.30.9-2.2--0.4-2.10.2-0.60.3股份行0.0-0.63.2-1.3-0.6-0.9-0.2-0.7-0.5城商行0.00.33.1-1.6-0.5-1.1-1.0-0.3-0.8农商行0.0-0.12.9-2.80.5--0.8-0.4-0.1-1.5上市银行合计0.00.81.6-2.40.00.61.0-0.4-1.80.0-0.60.0较年初增量(亿元)贷款票据对公零售基建制造业租赁商服房地产按揭消费信用卡经营贷国有大行70,1838,35858,7553,07011,93916,95515,643-476-5,0692,994-3,1667,278股份行12,406-1,55717,763-3,7992,9464,1685,016-633-973-348-1,472-539城商行11,36043511,745-8201,9611,6693,831-44-209233-117-353农商行1,440531,595-209156238578130-37-83-20-68上市银行合计95,3897,28989,858-1,75717,00123,03025,0691,023-6,2882,796-4,7746,318同比国有大行-7,4162,379-1,470-8,325-2,2722,7861,367-1,651-4,101362-2,752-1,812股份行2,3454,706886-3,247-2145411,868-521-2,527-25090-162城商行-2,178-852-406-920-545-146-686-340-487-112-4594农商行177210204-2371486319-93-24-132-6-75上市银行合计-7,0716,444-786-12,729-3,0173,2672,869-2,605-7,138-132-2,713-1,955增量结构贷款票据对公零售基建制造业租赁商服房地产按揭消费信用卡经营贷国有大行100.0%11.9%83.7%4.4%17.0%24.2%22.3%-0.7%-7.2%4.3%-4.5%10.4%股份行100.0%-12.6%143.2%-30.6%23.7%33.6%40.4%-5.1%-7.8%-2.8%-11.9%-4.3%城商行100.0%3.8%103.4%-7.2%17.3%14.7%33.7%-0.4%-1.8%2.1%-1.0%-3.1%农商行100.0%3.7%110.8%-14.5%10.8%16.5%40.1%9.0%-2.6%-5.8%-1.4%-4.7%上市银行合计100.0%7.6%94.2%-1.8%17.8%24.1%26.3%-1.1%-6.6%2.9%-5.0%6.6%同比国有大行0.04.26.1-10.3--2.2-6.00.9-4.0-1.3股份行0.049.7-24.6-25.1-7.7-2.59.1-4.0-23.3-1.83.7-0.6城商行0.0-5.713.6-8.0--2.6-3.9-0.5-0.50.2农商行0.016.10.6-16.8-0.44.519.7-8.7-1.5-9.7-0.3-5.3上市银行合计0.06.85.7-12.6--2.6-7.40.1-3.0-1.5数据来源:iFinD,广发证券发展研究中心(含NCD)2279%261.pt,144.12(行债券(NCD)6.0%、14.5%、0.7%、20.4%26Q1末分别回落05ct40c.pt1.pt62(含发行债券(NCD)73.4%20.7%、3.2%、2.8%-1.27pct、+1.21pct、-0.22pct、+0.29pct,26H19.882.16/1.381.13个2.53,907766亿元,对公存款合计同比多增4,61926H1(NCD)14.5%20.4%26Q14.0pct、10.7pct,上半年分别增长3.3万亿元、7,906亿元,占计息负债增量23.8%、5.7%。发行债券(不含NCD)余额小幅下降256亿元,主要受上半年商业银行债监管批文下发晚于往年影响。6.0%4.3%10.0%6.8%,26Q1分别变动-0.7pct、+0.0pct、-0.2pct、+0.3pct。26H16.391.6511,1639,7942,6475,238亿元,/(NCD)3.331.40发行债券新增4,266亿元,同比多增1,336亿元。26H11.754,4743,3742,9471,311(231亿元、1,640亿元。26H11.555201,193存款/汇兑/财政性存款同比增加;同业负债(含NCD)、发行债券余额分别下降62亿元、2,848亿元,同比分别大幅少增6,813亿元、6,110亿元。26H11,985102负债(含NCD)新增311亿元,同比少增75亿元;发行债券金额下降35亿元。存款结构上,2626426.0%2.3pct9.882.163.6%8.5%2.5%-4.9pct、-5.1pct-1.6pct5.4%46.5%20.9%1.13万亿元、1.3890776642家上市银行活期存款占比36.2%,同比下降1.1pct,存款定期化趋势延续。表8:子板块计息负债分项余额增速、结构、增量、增量结构及变化(单位:亿元,pct)余额增速 余额结构 增量 增量占比26Q126H1环比26Q126H1环比26Q126H1同比26Q126H1同比存款6.8%6.0%-0.777.3%76.3%-1.068,41263,932-16,53179.9%59.9%1.6国有大行 同业负债(含NCD)23.4%16.4%-7.117.6%18.3%0.715,62033,279-13,96818.2%31.2%-3.0发行债券(不含NCD)9.4%16.0%6.72.7%3.0%0.3-1,7124,2661,336-2.0%4.0%1.9其他48.7%21.6%-27.12.3%2.4%0.13,2995,274-2,2153.9%4.9%-0.5存款4.3%4.3%0.067.6%68.0%0.411,23617,457-4,474108.4%111.6%-48.6同业负债(含NCD)股份行6.6%11.5%4.926.4%25.9%-0.41,311-2319,59012.6%-1.5%70.3发行债券(不含NCD)-1.6%-12.1%-10.53.5%3.3%-0.2-359-1,640-2,475-3.5%-10.5%-16.6其他-1.0%4.3%5.22.5%2.8%0.3-1,82359-687-17.6%0.4%-5.1存款10.2%10.0%-0.263.5%64.2%0.713,89515,447-52088.6%104.5%44.6城商行 同业负债(含NCD)27.7%13.4%-14.326.7%26.7%0.052-62-6,8130.3%-0.4%-25.8发行债券(不含NCD)-13.6%-28.4%-14.84.3%4.2%-0.1-2,502-2,848-6,110-16.0%-19.3%-31.5其他31.8%43.1%11.25.5%4.9%-0.64,2302,2381,58227.0%15.1%12.7存款6.5%6.8%0.378.4%78.1%-0.31,7331,985-10284.2%76.4%-5.7农商行 同业负债(含NCD)7.7%9.2%1.514.7%14.8%0.1158311-757.7%12.0%-3.2发行债券(不含NCD)7.9%-1.8%-9.61.7%1.6%-0.114-35-870.7%-1.3%-3.4其他13.3%21.3%7.95.2%5.5%0.31533363217.4%12.9%12.3存款6.5%6.0%-0.573.9%73.4%-0.595,27698,821-21,62883.8%70.7%4.2上市银合计同业负债(含NCD) 18.5%14.5% -4.0 20.3% 20.7% 0.3 17,14133,297-11,26615.1% 23.8% -0.8发行债券(不含NCD) 2.8% 0.7% -2.1 3.0% 3.2% 0.1 -4,559 -256 -7,337 -4.0% -0.2% -4.1其他 31.1%20.4% -10.7 2.7% 2.8% 0.0 5,859 7,906 -999 5.2% 5.7% 0.7数据来源:iFinD,广发证券发展研究中心;“环比”指26H1较26Q1变动幅度表9:子板块存款分项余额增速、结构、增量、增量结构及变化(26H1,单位:亿元,pct)余额增速存款个人对公其他活期定期个人活期个人定期对公活期对公定期国有大行6.0%6.6%5.7%-1.7%2.4%8.2%2.4%8.6%2.5%8.8%股份行4.3%6.7%2.4%19.5%2.9%5.2%9.5%5.3%0.3%4.1%城商行10.0%12.6%7.1%27.4%9.0%10.4%7.7%13.5%9.4%5.6%农商行6.8%6.5%6.4%18.4%0.5%9.1%3.7%7.0%-1.5%18.5%上市银行合计6.0%6.9%4.9%6.2%3.0%7.8%3.6%8.5%2.5%7.1%同比国有大行-1.7--3.5-0.7-6.0-4.8-1.05.7股份行-4.2-4.8-4.914.5-2.0-5.81.0-7.7-3.3-6.3城商行-3.2-4.1-3.913.9-0.5-4.5-2.3-4.5-0.1-6.6农商行-0.2-3.00.341.8-4.31.2-1.6-3.3-6.09.2上市银行合计-2.3-5.0-0.39.7-3.0-2.0-4.9-5.1-1.60.8余额结构存款个人对公其他活期定期个人活期个人定期对公活期对公定期国有大行100.0%59.1%38.3%2.5%36.6%63.4%18.6%40.6%18.0%20.3%股份行100.0%34.0%62.7%3.3%38.3%61.7%11.7%22.3%26.6%36.1%城商行100.0%39.5%56.1%4.4%29.8%70.2%6.2%33.4%23.7%32.4%农商行100.0%68.4%28.0%3.6%24.4%75.6%9.8%58.6%14.6%13.2%上市银行合计100.0%52.6%44.5%2.9%36.2%63.8%16.0%36.6%20.2%24.3%同比国有大行0.00.3-0.1-0.2-1.31.3-0.60.9-0.60.5股份行0.00.8-1.20.4-0.2-1.1-0.1城商行0.00.9-1.50.6-0.30.3-0.11.0-0.1-1.4农商行0.0-0.2-0.10.4-1.51.5-0.30.1-1.21.3上市银行合计0.00.5-0.50.0-1.11.1-0.40.8-0.70.2较年初增量(亿元)存款个人对公其他活期定期个人活期个人定期对公活期对公定期国有大行63,93237,59531,036-4,69912,35351,5791,82335,77210,53020,505股份行17,4576,05210,1411,2648,1569,3013,0872,9655,0695,072城商行15,4476,2897,9751,1835,6069,8415525,7375,0542,922农商行1,9851,349393243-1072,092-1241,47317414上市银行合计98,82151,285,545-2,00926,00872,8135,33845,94720,67028,913同比国有大行-16,531-20,9577,885-3,460-8,516-8,016-11,163-9,7942,6475,238股份行-4,474-3,281-1,6364431,404-5,87893-3,3741,311-2,947城商行-520-339-1,3751,193182-703-80-259262-1,637农商行-102-431-255584-419317-105-326-314112上市银行合计-21,628-25,0084,619-1,240-7,349-14,280-11,256-13,7523,907766增量结构存款个人对公其他活期定期个人活期个人定期对公活期对公定期国有大行100.0%58.8%48.5%-7.3%19.3%80.7%2.9%56.0%16.5%32.1%股份行100.0%34.7%58.1%7.2%46.7%53.3%17.7%17.0%29.0%29.1%城商行100.0%40.7%51.6%7.7%36.3%63.7%3.6%37.1%32.7%18.9%农商行100.0%68.0%19.8%12.2%-5.4%105.4%-6.2%74.2%0.9%20.8%上市银行合计100.0%51.9%50.1%-2.0%26.3%73.7%5.4%46.5%20.9%29.3%同比国有大行0.0-14.019.8-5.8-6.66.6-13.3-0.76.713.1股份行0.0-15.9-15.94.0-11.911.9-7.5城商行0.0-0.8--2.3-0.4-0.42.7-9.6农商行0.0-17.3-11.328.6-20.320.3-5.4-12.0-15.06.4上市银行合计0.0-11.412.8-1.4-1.41.4-8.4-3.17.05.9数据来源:iFinD,广发证券发展研究中心三、息差:环比回升1BP,资产收益率下行趋缓26H1息差环比回升,主要是资产端收益率下行大幅缓解叠加负债端成本率延续改善驱动息差企稳回升。26年422.68%,环比-1.3bp-28.0bp20.3bp1.36%,环比-2.3bp,同比-29.3bp7.4bp1.31%,环比+1.0bp,同比+1.4bp。板块内部来看,城农商行净息差率先实现同比企稳回升,国有行同比降幅收敛至-0.2bp,但环比回升+1.5bp,仅股份行净息差同比/预计主要受益于25“”26H11.31%、+1.5bp-0.6bp+1.3bp-0.2bp-1.5bp+1.0bp+0.0bp,15.3bp8.3bp9.4bp11.9bp2.54%2.93%3.05%2.87%0.7bp3.5bp0.2bp0.8bp34.5bp32.0bp32.1bp22.7bp14.1bp18.1bp9.6bp26H1测1.33%1.39%1.56%2.4bp、2.8bp0.8bp27.7bp33.8bp30.1bp-7.9bp-5.9bp-8.7bp、+3.5bp。“”0.5%DR密集落地,贷款定价从单独锚定LPRLPRDR并存的“多锚”央行从“”转向“性平衡器”,货币政策进入实质中性,总量上淡化数量型目标、不再大水漫灌,淡化数量型目标和对贷款单一二是三是5四是6“”AI)表10:子板块累计净息差、净利差、生息资产收益率、计息负债成本率测算值(单位:bp)累计 2024Q1-3 2024A 2025Q1 2025H12025Q1-3 2025A 2026Q1 2026H1 环比变化同比变化国有大行股份行1.45% 1.45%1.33%1.32% 1.31% 1.31% 1.30% 1.31%1 -0-1 -11.66%1.64%1.58% 1.57% 1.58%1.57% 1.56%1.56%净息差(测算值)城商行1.55%1.54%1.51%1.48%1.49%1.49%1.47%1.49%11农商行1.65%1.63%1.53%1.54%1.54%1.53%1.54%1.54%-00上市银行1.51%1.50%1.40%1.39%1.39%1.39%1.37%1.38%1-0国有大行1.30%1.30%1.21%1.19%1.19%1.19%1.20%1.22%22股份行1.63%1.61%1.55%1.54%1.55%1.54%1.54%1.53%-1-1净利差(测算值)城商行1.61%1.60%1.55%1.51%1.52%1.52%1.48%1.49%1-2农商行1.56%1.54%1.46%1.46%1.46%1.46%1.48%1.48%-02上市银行1.40%1.39%1.31%1.30%1.30%1.30%1.30%1.31%11国有大行3.22%3.20%2.84%2.80%2.76%2.74%2.55%2.54%-1-25股份行3.71%3.64%3.31%3.27%3.24%3.17%2.96%2.93%-3-35生息资产收益率(测算值)城商行3.83%3.77%3.43%3.37%3.35%3.32%3.05%3.05%-0-32农商行3.57%3.52%3.19%3.19%3.15%3.10%2.87%2.87%-1-32上市银行3.39%3.35%3.00%2.96%2.92%2.89%2.69%2.68%-1-28国有大行1.92%1.89%1.63%1.60%1.57%1.55%1.35%1.33%-2-28股份行2.08%2.04%1.76%1.73%1.68%1.63%1.42%1.39%-3-34计息负债成本率(测算值)城商行2.22%2.18%1.88%1.86%1.83%1.80%1.56%1.56%-1-30农商行2.01%1.98%1.74%1.72%1.69%1.65%1.39%1.39%-1-34上市银行1.99%1.95%1.69%1.66%1.62%1.59%1.39%1.36%-2-29数据来源:iFinD,广发证券发展研究中心;“环比”指26H1较26Q1变动幅度表11:子板块单季度净息差、净利差、生息资产收益率、计息负债成本率测算值(单位:bp)单季度2024Q32024Q42025Q

温馨提示

  • 1. 本站所有资源如无特殊说明,都需要本地电脑安装OFFICE2007和PDF阅读器。图纸软件为CAD,CAXA,PROE,UG,SolidWorks等.压缩文件请下载最新的WinRAR软件解压。
  • 2. 本站的文档不包含任何第三方提供的附件图纸等,如果需要附件,请联系上传者。文件的所有权益归上传用户所有。
  • 3. 本站RAR压缩包中若带图纸,网页内容里面会有图纸预览,若没有图纸预览就没有图纸。
  • 4. 未经权益所有人同意不得将文件中的内容挪作商业或盈利用途。
  • 5. 人人文库网仅提供信息存储空间,仅对用户上传内容的表现方式做保护处理,对用户上传分享的文档内容本身不做任何修改或编辑,并不能对任何下载内容负责。
  • 6. 下载文件中如有侵权或不适当内容,请与我们联系,我们立即纠正。
  • 7. 本站不保证下载资源的准确性、安全性和完整性, 同时也不承担用户因使用这些下载资源对自己和他人造成任何形式的伤害或损失。

评论

0/150

提交评论