德勤 -南非的经济复苏或将推迟但不会脱轨 South Africas economic recovery might be delayed,but not derailed

Deloitte.Insights

SOUTHAFRICAECONOMICOUTLOOK,JUNE2026

SouthAfrica'seconomicrecoverymightbedelayed,butnotderailed

Despiteitsgrowthdriversremainingintact,theSouthAfricaneconomywilllikelyseeslowgrowthin2026,primarilyduetotheoilpriceshockfromtheMiddleEastconflictByHannahMarais

Article·10-minread·26June2026

SOUTHAFRICASECONOMICRECOVERYMIGHTBEDELAYED,BUTNOTDERAILED·PG1

SouthAfricaentered2026onafirmermacroeconomicfootingthanlastyear:Economicgrowthexpandedmodestlythrough2025;

inflationmovedclosertothenewtargetof3%setbytheSouth

AfricanReserveBank(SARB);andreformmomentum,particularlyinelectricityandlogistics,begantostabilizebusinessconditionsandimproveconfidenceintheeconomy’smedium-termproductive

capacity.

TheNationalTreasuryframedthisbackdropinits2026budgetasa“fiscalturningpointinaresilienteconomy,”drivenbyimproving

confidence,lowerborrowingcosts,andastrongerreformnarrative.1

TheSouthAfricaneconomygrewby1.1%in2025,comparedwiththe0.5%and0.8%recordedin2024and2023,respectively.The

firstquarterof2026wasthesixthconsecutiveonewithpositive

growth;realgrossdomesticproductexpandedby0.5%fromthelastquarter.2

Businesssentimentalsoimprovedmaterially:Thebusiness

confidenceindexpublishedbyRandMerchantBankandtheBureauforEconomicResearchroseto47inthefirstquarterof2026—its

strongestnon-reboundreadingsince2015—supportedbyastablepolicybackdrop,astablerulingcoalition,andlowerinterestrates

thanayearearlier.3

Thisfavorableoutlookwas,however,disruptedbytheescalationoftheMiddleEastconflictandtheclosureoftheStraitofHormuz.Theresultantoilpriceshockhasexposedthecountry’sstructural

vulnerabilitiesasafuel-importing,transport-intensiveeconomy,

mainlythroughhigheroilandrefined-fuelprices,increasedfreightandinsurancecosts,renewedinflationarypressures,andmore

restrictivemonetarypolicy.

InitsstatementdatedMay28,2026,theSARBnotedthat

expectationsofaswiftresolutiontotheconflicthadlargelyfaded,

withtheBrentcrudeoilpricefluctuatingaroundUS$100perbarrel.Italsowarnedof“apainfulcombinationofhigherglobal

uncertaintyandreduceddisposableincome,”promptingthe

MonetaryPolicyCommittee(MPC)toraisethereporateby25basispointsto7%.4

Therefore,themainquestionfortherestof2026andinto2027isnotwhetherthecountry’seconomicrecoveryhasbeenstalled,buthowmuchshort-termadjustmentisrequiredbeforethereform-

drivenrecoverypath,whichwasvisiblebeforetheMiddleEastconflict,reassertsitself(figure1).

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SOUTHAFRICASECONOMICRECOVERYMIGHTBEDELAYED,BUTNOTDERAILED·PG4

Figure1

WhilethedurationoftheMiddleEastconflictwilldictateSouthAfrica'snear-termgrowth,itsgrowthdriversarestillexpectedtoboostgrowthinthemediumterm

Percentagegrowth(yearoveryear)

2.00%

Forecast

NationalTreasury(beforeconflict,February2026)SARB(beforeconflict,January2026)

SARB(May2026)

Reuterspoll(May2026)

OxfordEconomics(June2026)

1.50%

1.00%

StatsSA(historical)

0.50%

202320242025

Sources:StatsSA,NationalTreasury(February2026);SouthAfricanReserveBank(SARB)(JanuaryandMay2026);LondonStockExchangeGroup/RefinitivReuterspoll(May2026);OxfordEconomics(June2026).

Thedistinctionmatters:RecentSARBstatementscontinueto

highlightthattheunderlyingdriversofrecoveryremainintact,citingfavorabletradingterms,macroeconomicresilience,andprogressinongoingdomesticreforms.WhileSouthAfrica'snear-termoutlookhasdeteriorated,itsmedium-termtrajectoryhasnotfundamentally

changed.5

Economicgrowth:Asofter2026outlook

RecentGDPdatastillreflectsaneconomythatwasgaining

momentumbeforetheexternalshockfromtheblockadeoftheStraitofHormuz.Inthefirstquarterof2026,StatisticsSouthAfrica

(StatsSA)reportedthatrealGDPincreasedby0.5%quarteronquarter—upfrom0.4%inthelastquarterof2025.6

SevenofSouthAfrica's10majorindustriesexpandedover2025,ledbyaparticularlystrongrecoveryinagriculture.Butmanufacturingandutilitiesremainedweak.Althoughglobaltradetensionsand

evolvingUStariffmeasureshaveaddeduncertaintytosectorslikeagriculture,SouthAfrica'sexportbasehasdemonstratedrelative

resilience,supportedbyfavorabletradingtermsandstrongpricesforkeycommodityexportssuchasgoldandplatinum,whichhave

helpedsustainexportearningsdespiteamorevolatileglobal

environment.?Themostrecentdataforthefirstquarterof2026

showsthat9outof10industriesrecordedpositivegrowth,ledbyfinance,agriculture,trade,andtransport.Manufacturing,however,continuedtocontract(figure2).8

Figure2

9outof10ofSouthAfricasindustriesrecordedpositivegrowthinthefirstquarterof2026,while2025overallshowedmixedperformance

Growthacrosssectors(percentage)

2025sectoralperformanceQ12026

(percentage,yearoveryear)(percentage,quarteronquarter,seasonallyadjusted)

Agriculture,forestry,andfishing

17.4%

3.9%

Finance,realestate,andbusinessservices

1.9%

0.9%

Mining

0.2%

0.7%

Trade,catering,andaccommodation

2.3%

0.7%

Transport,storage,andcommunication

0.8%

0.7%

Electricity,gas,andwater

0.4%

Governmentservices

0.4%

0.3%

Personalservices

0.4%

0.3%

Construction

0.2%

Manufacturing

-1.2%

-0.8%

Source:StatsSA.

Deloitte.

Ontheexpenditureside,householdspendingandinvestmentplayedamoresupportiverolethaninpreviousyears.9High-frequencydataforthefirstquarterof2026presentedamoremixedpicture—but

onethatwasbroadlyconsistentwithaneconomythatwas

demonstratingmomentumbeforetheshockfromtheMiddleEast

conflictcamethrough.AsalsoshowninStatsSA'seconomicwrap-upforMay2026,thefirstquarterwas"mainlypositive,"withstrongerperformanceinmining,wholesaletradesales,motortradesales,

tourist-relatedactivity,andtransport,offsetbycontinuedweaknessinmanufacturing,electricitygeneration,andconstruction.This

divergencehighlightsaneconomystillreliantonservices,whiletradableandinfrastructure-intensivesectorslag.10

ThissectoralperformanceunderscorestheunevennatureofSouthAfrica'seconomicrecovery:Financeandbroaderserviceshave

remainedrelativelyresilient,supportedbyfewerloadsheddingor

powersupplydisruptions,modestgainsinconfidence,anda

cautiousconsumerserviceseconomy.Tourism-relatedcategories

havealsoshownimprovement.Bycontrast,manufacturingremainssubdued,electricityoutputhassoftened,andconstructionactivityhasyettoestablishasustainedrecovery.1

Commoditypriceshaveprovidedanimportantexternalbuffer,

particularlyfromminingandexport-linkedactivity.However,ithasnotbeenbroad-basedenoughtooffsetweaknessinmanufacturing,

SOUTHAFRICASECONOMICRECOVERYMIGHTBEDELAYED,BUTNOTDERAILED·PG5

electricity,andconstruction,reinforcingtheunevenandrelativelynarrownatureofeconomicrecovery.

Overall,SouthAfrica’sgrowthprofileremainsnarrowandsensitivetoexternalshocks—lackingarobustinvestmentorproductioncycle.Inthiscontext,fuel-priceshocksaretransmittedrapidlyacrossthe

economy,erodingrealincomes,raisinginputcosts,andweakeningforward-lookingconfidence.Limitedcapitalformation(StatsSA

reportsadeclineforthefirstquarterof2026)andindustrialdepthamplifytheeffectsofsuchshocks,therebydisproportionately

slowingrecovery.

Giventhesefactors,theSARBreviseditsgrowthforecasts

downwardintheMayMPCstatement,citingweakerinvestmentandhouseholdconsumptionamidheighteneduncertaintyand

reducedrealincomes.12ThisisanotableshiftfromtheFebruary2026budgetreview,wheretheNationalTreasuryhadprojected1.6%growthfor2026(SARBnowexpects1.2%),whichwasexpectedtoriseto2%by2028(SARBnowexpects1.9%),

supportedbystructuralreforms,improvingconfidence,lowerinterestrates,andhigherinvestment.

Arguably,thecurrentconflict-drivenshockhasnotreversedthe

directionofeconomicrecovery,butithasclearlypushedthetimingoutward.13

Disinflationinterrupted

InflationdynamicswerebroadlyfavorableinSouthAfricaatthe

startof2026.Thefirst-quarterinflationexpectationssurveybytheBureauforEconomicResearchshowedthatfive-yearinflation

expectationsofanalysts,businesses,andtradeunionshadfallentoarecordlowof3.6%,whileexpectationsforinflationnextyearalso

easedto3.6%.14ThissuggestedthattheSARB’sefforttoshiftinflationexpectationscloserto3%wasstartingtogaintractionamongprice-setters.

However,April’sinflationdatadisruptedthistrend.Headline

consumer-priceinflationacceleratedto4%year-on-year(from3.1%inMarch)(figure3),withasharpmonthlyincreaseof1.1%,drivenprimarilybyfuelcosts.Fuelinflationsurgedby11.4%after

decliningby8.7%thepreviousmonth.15

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Figure3

Inflationislikelytoremainabovetargetin2026,trendingbacktowardthe3%targetby2028Headlineconsumer-priceinflation(percentage,yearoveryear)

6.0%

Forecast

5.5%

5.0%

StatsSA(historical)

4.5%

4.0%

3.5%

OxfordEconomics(June2026)

3.0%

Reuterspoll(May2026)

NationalTreasury(February2026)SARB(May2026)

SARB(January2026)

2.5%

2023202620272028

Sources:StatsSA,NationalTreasury(February2026);SouthAfricanReserveBank(SARB)(JanuaryandMay2026);LondonStockExchangeGroup/RefinitivReuterspoll(May2026);OxfordEconomics(June2026).

Delgite.|

AndthishappeneddespitetheNationalTreasury'stemporary

reductionofthegeneralfuellevy—fromAprilandextendedthroughJune—whichloweredthediesellevytoeffectivelyzeroby

May.6Whilethisinterventionmitigatedtheimmediatepassthroughofcosts,itcouldnotfullyoffsetglobalpriceincreases.Thethree-

monthrelief,estimatedat17.2billionrandinforegonerevenue,wasframedas“revenue-neutral”withinthefiscalframework.7

duringtheinitialescalationoftheconflict,beforeretractingtothe

middleofthe16-per-dollarrangemorerecentlyascommoditypricesstrengthenedandrisksentimentstabilized.8Thispartialrecovery,

supportedpartlybyhighergoldpricesandassociatedexport

earnings,hashelpedtomoderatethedomesticimpactofelevatedoilpricesbylimitingthepassthroughofexchange-rateeffectstofuel

costs.Butthebufferhasnotbeenenough.

Theexchangeratehasalsoprovidedapartialmitigatingeffect.Thevalueoftherandhasbeenvolatilein2026,depreciatingfrom

around15.7perUSdollarinearlyJanuarytoabove16.8perdollar

Concernsnowextendbeyondfirst-roundeffectsthrough

transportationcosts.IntheMayMPCstatement,theSARB

highlightedservicesinflationof4.6%—aboveits3%target—and

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emergingnonfuelpressuresincategoriessuchasinsuranceandfinancialservices.19Theshockisnolongerconfinedtothepetrolpump,thus,andcostpressuresseemtobebroadening.

Producer-pricedatareinforcesthis:Headlineproducer-priceinflationroseto4.8%inAprilfrom2.3%inMarch,withamonthlyincreaseof3%.Thiswasthelargestmonthlyjumpinthecurrentproducer-priceinflationseries.Keydriverswerefuel-andpetrochemical-

relatedcategories:Dieselpricesrose39.4%,andpetrolpricesrose18.3%atthefactorygate.Fertilizerpricesalsosurgedsharply

(ammonianitratefertilizerpricesjumped37.6%,whileotherfertilizersjumped20.1%).Petrochemicalsandfeedstockprices

increasedby19.5%.20Asaleadingindicatorforconsumer-price

inflation,theproducer-pricedatasuggestsfurtherupwardpressureonconsumerprices.Consumer-priceinflationstoodat4.6%yearonyear,inMay2026,drivenbyfuelpriceincreases.21

Theinflationoutlooknowdependsontheextenttowhichtheinitialfuelshocktranslatesintobroaderpricepressures.Giventheroleoffuelasasystemwideinput,second-roundeffects—particularly

throughfoodandservices—remainakeyrisk.

Althoughfoodinflationhasnotyetfullyreflectedthatstress,the

underlyingdatastillsuggeststhatearliersupplyconditionsandgoodharvestoutcomesbufferedpricepressures.Butfoodinflationis

usuallyslowertoreactinsuchsituations,especiallywherecost

increasesfirstpassthroughproducers,transporters,andwholesalersbeforereachingretailshelves.22

Inmid-June,thesigningofthememorandumofunderstanding

betweentheUnitedStatesandIran—whichhasresultedinthe

temporaryopeningoftheStraitofHormuz—hasalreadyseenBrentcrudepricesmoderatetoaroundUS$80perbarrel.Hopefully,this

providessomestabilityandmoderationtoinflationnumbersinthe

comingmonths,althoughnegotiationsarestillunderwayonthefinaltermsofthedeal.23

Interestrateeasingpostponed

Theriskofabroadercost-of-livingshockmaybelikelyforthesecondhalfoftheyear,particularlyifnofinalUS-Irandealisreachedinthenexttwomonths.

TheMPChikedthereporateby25basispointsinMayto7%,withasplitdecision,reflectingboththeseriousnessoftheinflation

outlookandongoinguncertainty.Revisedforecastsindicateaverageinflationof4.4%in2026,likelyturningtowardtheSARBtargetof3%onlyby2028.24Asaresult,theanticipatedpolicy-easingcyclehasbeenpostponed,withriskstiltedtowardfurthertighteningif

elevatedinflationpersists.

Thatshiftmattersgreatlyforbothhouseholdsandfirms.Theyearthatwaswidelyexpectedtodeliverlowerborrowingcostsnow

looksmorelikeayearofrestrictivepolicywitharealriskoffurthertightening.Ifoilmarketsremainconstrainedandcostpassthroughsbecomebroader,theprobabilityoffurtherreporatehikes—onceinJulyandpotentiallyagaininSeptember—cannotberuledout.25

Eveninamorebenignglobalscenario,weather-relatedrisks—particularlyapotentialElNiñoevent—couldplaceadditionalupwardpressureonfoodpricesinto2027.26

Fiscaltrajectoryshowsprogressbutremainsunderpressure

SouthAfrica’sfiscaloutlookhadalsobeenimprovingatthestartoftheyear.IntheFebruarybudgetreview,theNationalTreasury

framed2026asaturningpointforpublicfinances,withthedebt-to-GDPratioexpectedtostabilizeinfiscalyear2025to2026and

graduallydeclinethereafter.

Theconsolidatedbudgetdeficitwasprojectedtonarrowfrom4.5%ofGDPinfiscal2025to2026to3.1%byfiscal2028to2029,withgrossloandebtexpectedtostabilizeat78.9%ofGDPoverthe

currentfiscalyearandeaseto76.5%overthemediumterm.Thegovernmentalsoprojectedamainbudgetprimarysurplusof0.9%ofGDP,supportedbystrongerrevenuecollectionandsomewhat

lowerdebt-servicepressures.27

However,weakergrowthandhigherinterestratesnowcomplicatethistrajectory.Lowerrevenuebuoyancy,elevateddebt-servicecosts,andtheneedforpolicyinterventionslikethefuel-levyrelief,

highlightfiscalfragility.Whilefiscalcredibilityisunlikelytobeundermined,thepaceoffiscalconsolidationwilllikelybeslow.

Still,SouthAfrica’sfiscal“repair”storyhasbeenanimportantpartoftherecoveryineconomicconfidence.Ifgrowthdisappoints

materiallyorratesremainelevatedforlonger,thecountry’sfiscaltrajectoryislikelytobecomeincrementallymorechallengingin2027.

Investment:Akeymedium-termgrowthdriver

Investmentremainsthemostimportantdeterminantofsustained

economicrecovery.Whiletherewereearlysignsofimprovement—particularlyinthedataforthelastquarterof2025—overallcapitalformationremainsweakatjust13.7%ofGDP,downfrom14.2%

SOUTHAFRICA’SECONOMICRECOVERYMIGHTBEDELAYED,BUTNOTDERAILED•PG9

in2024—wellbelowtheNationalDevelopmentPlan’s30%

target.28Goinginto2026,grossfixedcapitalformationdeclinedinthefirstquarterof2026,aftertwoquartersofmarginalexpansion.29

Weakgrowth,limitedstatecapacity,inefficientpublicinvestmentmanagement,supply-sidebottlenecks,andpolicyuncertaintyhaveallconstrainedcapitalformationinSouthAfrica.30

Butthereissomemedium-termsupport:About1.07trillionrandinpublicsectorinfrastructurespendingoverthethree-yearMedium-TermExpenditureFrameworkperiodwaspenciledinbythe

NationalTreasuryinFebruary,withstate-ownedcompaniesbeingthelargestcontributor(about445.5billionrand).Capitalpaymentsarealsothefastest-growingitemofexpenditureinthebudget

framework.31Amoredeliberateattempttoraisepublicinvestment,crowdinprivatecapital,andrebuilddeliverycapabilitiesinkey

sectorslikeenergy,transport,andlogisticswillremainanimportantfoundationforfastergrowthingrossfixedcapitalformation.

However,itisexecutionthatremainsthemostcrucialchallengeforSouthAfrica.

Encouragingly,investmentcommitmenthasimprovedinheadlineterms.Since2018,SouthAfrica’spresidentialinvestmentdrivehassecuredover2.4trillionrandinpledgesacrosssixinvestment

conferences,witharound634billionrandalreadyflowingintotheeconomy.Atthemostrecent2026SouthAfricaInvestment

Conference,thegovernmentreportedroughly890billionrandincommitmentsacross81investments—thestrongestoutcomeforasingleconferencetodate.Asecondmobilizationdrivehasbeen

launched,targetingafurther3trillionrandininvestmentsoverthe

fiveyearsto2030.32

SouthAfrica’screditratingsconfirminvestmentcase

SouthAfrica’sinvestmentcasehasbeenreinforcedbyrecent

sovereignratingactions.InMay2026,Moody’srevisedSouth

Africa’soutlookfromstabletopositive,citingimprovingfiscal

performance,risingprimarysurpluses,andsustainedcommitmenttostructuralreforms,whileexplicitlynotingthatstrongerinvestmentssupportedbyreformsshouldbuoygrowthoverthemediumterm.

S&Pfollowedsuit,onJune1,2026,byaffirmingSouthAfrica’s

“BB/BB+”ratingsafteranupgradeinNovember2025and

maintainingapositiveoutlook,highlightingstrongerrevenue

collection,athirdconsecutiveannualprimarysurplus,andreformprogressinelectricityandlogistics.

FitchthenupgradedSouthAfrica’slong-termforeign-andlocal-

currencyissuerdefaultratingsto“BB”from“BB–”onJune5,2026,withastableoutlook,citingprudentfiscalmanagement,progressonfiscalconsolidation,andanimproveddebttrajectoryrelativeto

expectationsatthetimeofits2020downgrade.33

Together,thesedecisionsprovideexternalvalidationthatbothSouthAfrica’sfiscaltrajectoryandreformagendaareimprovinginways

thatsupportinvestorconfidence,lowerperceivedsovereignrisk,andstrengthenthecaseforcrowdinginprivatecapitalalongsidethe

publicinfrastructurepushandwiderinvestmentmobilizationdrive.

Labormarketweakness,low

confidence,andatrickypoliticalbackdrop

ThelabormarketremainsakeystructuralconstraintforSouth

Africa.StatsSA’squarterlylaborforcesurveyshowedtheofficial

unemploymentraterisingto32.7%—upfrom31.4%inthe

previousquarter.Employmentfellby345,000,whilethenumberofunemployedpersonsincreasedby301,000.34Thatdeteriorationisespeciallyconcerningasitweakenshouseholddemandamidrisinginflationandmonetarypolicytightening.

Businessconfidencehasalsomoderatedrecently:TheRMB/BER

businessconfidenceindexdroppedby8pointsfromtheprevious

quarterto39,belowitslong-termaverage,inthesecondquarterof

2026.Thesurveyfieldedinmid-MaypointedtofirmsexperiencingadeterioratingoperatingenvironmentduetotheMiddleEastconflictandahigherlending-rateenvironment.Acrosssectors,adeclinein

confidencewasmostlyseeninthoseexposedtohouseholdspendingchanges,financingconditions,andtheeffectsofelevatedfuel

prices.35

TheElectoralCommissionofSouthAfricaconfirmedadate—Nov.

4,2026—forthenextlocalgovernmentelections.36Economic

conditionsarelikelytofeaturemoreprominentlyinpolitical

discourseoverthecomingmonths,asSouthAfricansheadtothepollsamidrisinglivingcosts,servicedeliveryconstraints,and

persistentsocioeconomicchallenges.

Afurtherlayerofuncertaintycomesfromthereemergenceofanti-

immigrantmobilizationinpartsofthecountry.Recentprotests,

alongsidewarningsfrompolicyandrightsorganizations,pointto

immigrationbecomingincreasinglypoliticizedaheadoftheelections,particularlyinthecontextofhighunemployment,socioeconomic

pressures,andgeneralpublicfrustration.Newwavesofanti-

foreignerincidents—inApril,May,andJune—sawmigrants(andpeoplewronglymistakenasmigrants)beingattacked.

SOUTHAFRICA’SECONOMICRECOVERYMIGHTBEDELAYED,BUTNOTDERAILED•PG10

Therehavealsobeenlarge-scalerepatriationeffortssupportedbydifferentAfricangovernmentsamidsafetyconcerns,togetherwithanincreasednumberofdeportations.Meanwhile,thegovernmenthaspledgedgreatereffortstocrackdownonillegalimmigration.37

Morerecently,politicalnoisearoundpotentialimpeachment

proceedingsagainstthepresidenthasaddedtouncertainty,althoughfornow,itremainsatailrisk.38Takentogether,thesedynamics

compoundanalreadyfragileexternalenvironment.

Lookingahead

The2026outlookforSouthAfricahasbecomemoreconstrained

anduncertaincomparedtoexpectationsatthestartof2026.WhileSouthAfricaretainsacrediblepathwaytorecovery—onethat

remainsfundamentallycontingentoncontinuedreformprogress—thenear-termenvironmenthasbecomemuchmorechallenging.Asevidentfromsurveysandmarketcommentary,thecountryisheadedforweakgrowthin2026,firmerinflation,andinterestratesthat

mightremainhigherforlonger.39

Inthiscontext,2026seemsmoretobeayearofrenewedresilience

testingthanoneofacceleratingeconomicrecovery—echoingsomeofthesamedynamicsseenin2025.Ifexternalpressuresease,the

recoverytrajectorycouldregainmomentumfrom2027onward.Fornow,however,themarginforerror—andforadditionalexternal

shocks—seemstohavenarrowedsignificantly.

BY

HannahMarais

DeloitteSouthAfrica

ENDNOTES

1.NationalTreasury,“

Budgetreview2026

,”Feb.25,2026.

2.StatisticsSouthAfrica,

“Grossdomesticproduct,quarterendedDecember2025

,”March10,2026;StatsSA,“

Grossdomesticproduct,

quarterendedMarch2026

,”June9,2026.

3.RandMerchantBank,“

RMB/BERbusinessconfidenceonthemend

,”March.4,2026.

4.SouthAfricanReserveBank,“

StatementoftheMonetaryPolicyCommitteeMay2026

,”May28,2026.

5.Ibid.

6.StatsSA,“

Grossdomesticproduct:QuarterendedMarch2026

.”

7.SARB,“

StatementoftheMonetaryPolicyCommitteeMay2026

.”

8.StatsSA,“

Grossdomesticproduct:QuarterendedMarch2026

.”

9.StatsSA,“

Grossdomesticproduct:QuarterendedDecember2025

.”

10.StatsSA,“

Economicwrap-upforMay2026

,”May29,2026.

11.StatsSA,“

Grossdomesticproduct:QuarterendedDecember2025

”;StatsSA,“

EconomicwrapupforMay2026

.”

12.SARB,“

StatementoftheMonetaryPolicyCommittee

.”

13.NationalTreasury,“

Budgetreview2026

”;SARB,“

MonetaryPolicyCommitteeforecastreport:May2026MPCmeeting,

”May28,2026.

14.NicolaasvanderWath,“

Surveyofinflationexpectations:Firstquarter2026

,”BureauforEconomicResearch,2026.

SOUTHAFRICA’SECONOMICRECOVERYMIGHTBEDELAYED,BUTNOTDERAILED•PG11

15.SARB,“

StatementoftheMonetaryPolicyCommittee

.”

16.NationalTreasuryandDepartmentofMineralandPetroleumResources,“

Extensionoftheshort-termreliefmeasurestoaddressfuel

priceincreases

,”April28,2026.

17.MalcolmLibera,“

R17.2billion‘gift’toSouthAfricaisending

,”BusinessTech,May25,2026.

18.E,“

USdollar(USD)toSouthAfricanrand(ZAR)exchangeratehistoryfor2026

,”accessedJune22,2026.

19.SARB,“

StatementoftheMonetaryPolicyCommittee

.”

20.StatsSA,“

Factory-gatepricesrisesharplyinApril

,”May28,2026.

21.StatsSA,“

Inflationrisesto4.5%inMay2026

,”June17,2026.

22.StatsSA,“

Factory-gatepricesrisesharplyinApril

,”May28,2026.

23.AlaynaTreene,KevinLiptak,andMostafaSalem,“

USreleasesofficialagreementwithIran.Readthe14-pointtext

,”CNN,June17,2026;LondonStockExchangeGroup/RefinitivReuterspolls.

24.SARB,“

MonetaryPolicyCommitteeforecastreport,May2026MPCmeeting

.”

25.SARB,“

StatementoftheMonetaryPolicyCommittee

.”

26.WandileSihlobo,“

ApossibleElNiñointhe2026-27seasonpresentsrisksforSouthAfrica’sagriculture

,”Agbiz,April13,2026.

27.NationalTreasury,“

Budgetreview2026

.”

28.StatsSA,“

Grossdomesticproduct:QuarterendedDecember2025

.”

29.StatsSA,“

Grossdomesticproduct:QuarterendedMarch2026

.”

30.NationalTreasury,“

Budgetreview2026

.”

31.Ibid.

32.InvestSA,“

ThePresidentialInvestmentDriveupdates

,”accessedJune17,2026.

33.Moody’sRatings,“

Ratingaction:Moody’sRatingschangesSouthAfrica’soutlooktopositivefromstable,affirmsBa2ratings

,”May22,2026;NanaOyeAnkrah,“

S&PreaffirmsSouthAfricaratings,citingfiscalgainsandreformprogress

,”AfricaBusinessInsight,June1,2026;FitchRatings,“

FitchupgradesSouthAfricato‘BB’;outlookstable

,”June5,2026.

34.StatsSA,“

Quarterlylabourforcesurvey(QLFS)—Q1:2026

,”May12,2026.

35.RandMerchantBankandBureauforEconomicResearch,“

MiddleEasttensionsinterruptbusinessconfidencerecovery

,”pressrelease,June2,2026.

36.ElectoralCommissionofSouthAfrica,“

Ele