伯恩斯坦-全球储能：中国下一批赢家：为中国人工智能革命供能-Global Energy Storage China Next Winners：Powering China's AI Revolution-20260916

areoftenpricedatafractiointelligencescores,reinfrastructurecostsandcWeexpecthyperscalerelectricityconsgrowingsourcesofpowerdemandovercontinuedexpansionofdatacenterinfrascomputegapwiththeUS,weestimpowercapacityin2025alone.Atthfromsomeoftheworld'slowestdatacenterporeliabilityforAlworkload"Computing-PowerCoordination"framewww.bernsteinresearch.cNeilBeveridge,Ph.D.+85221232648neil.beveridge@00UMMUM0000O-Outperform,M-Market-Perform,U-Underperform,NR-NotRated,CS-CoverageSuSource:Bloomberg,Bernsteinestimatesandanalandpolicysupport.LeadingChinessupportedbyefficientarchicontinuetodominatethefrontierofperformance,agrowicompellingvaluepropositionforenterprisesanddevelopersa5.0Source:Companydata,Bernsteinanascoresagainstoutputtokencosts,severalleadincomparabletofrontierUSmodelswhilechargingsubstantiallyloweareincreasinglyoptimizingforintelligenceperdollar.AsAladoplarge-scaleinferencstructurallylowercostofdeliveringAlseBenchLMinteligencescoreisarelative,weightedmeasureofamodel'sbroadcapabilityreasoning(17%),knowledge(12%),multimodalandgroundedtasks(12%),multilingualcapability(7%),instructionfollowing(5%)andmathematics(5%Source:Companydata,BenchLM.ai,BermsteiBasedonanoutlookthatassumeschipefffromroughly2ZFLOPsto35ZFLOPs,an86%CAGR.Bmodel20020一一US一ChinaSource:Companydata,BNEF,BernsteinanalysisandestTheamountofpowertoreachthislevelodomesticsemiconductorindustry.OurassumptionisthattforChinaandthatChinawilusingtotalAIDC,notjusttherack),whichisaboabletomaintaina~6yeartechgapcomparedtoTSMC.Webethegapwon'tbecomebiggerin Source:Companydata,BNEF,BemstcomparabletothatofpowerdemandwhichwillcoChina'stotalelectricitydemand,compcentersislikelytocNeilBeveridge,Ph.D.+85221232648neil.beveridge@0%Source:Companydata,BNEF,BemsteinanalysisandestimatesSource:Companydata,BNEF,Bernsteinan8002000Source:BNEF,BernsteinanalysisandestimatesSource:BNEF,SNERUndertheseassumptions,Chindemandgrowthoverthenextdecade.However,theconintheU.S.,whereAl-drivenloadg12469001235Fleetefficiency,TFLOPSW,newaSource:Companydata,BNEF,BChina'sNationalEnergyAdministratNeilBeveridge,Ph.D.+85221232648neil.beveridge@Source:BNEF,NEA,Rystad,IEA,WoodMackenzie,BemsteinestimatesandChinaistheworld'slargestproducedoubletheconsumptionoftheUnitedStateswhichprodcountryintheworldconsumptionofJapan.Todayele0Noothercountryaddsasmuchpowercapacistaggering500GWofpowtheUS,IndiaortheEU.ChthatChinawith1200GWofmaUS0 Source:Governmentdata,BernsteinanalTrumpadministrationhasbeennegativeons500GWofpower,314GWofsol5045025020050Source:EIA,BernsteinanalysisSource:BNEF,BeyondChina'sabilitytowardbecomingtheworld'sNeilBeveridge,Ph.D.+85221232648neil.beveridge@deployment.China'spoworkloadsbecomeincr082Source:EA,BernsteinTheadvantagebecomesandlarge-scalepoweravailability,creatingafavorableenvironmentforAldata-centerexp0.15Cluster ProjectProjectSource:Companydata,Woodmac,CostsofrenewablesinChitermnet-zerogoals.Chinais0.90.2Solar:Priceofmonocrystalinesiliconmodule(c-Si);WinElectrolysissystemcapexcostsofroughlyUS$2,000-withascalablesourceostabilitywhilehelpingsuppHighercostandslowerbuildLowercostandfasterbuildSource:Bloomberg,Companydata,ecosystemthatcombinesthatAlanddigitalinfrastructureshouldbedevelopedalongsi246250502021153Source:ChinaNationalDataAdministration,OxfChinahasintroducedaseriesofpoliciesdhubswhileencouraginglatency-insensitiveworkloadssuchthatChinaisnotsimplyexpEasternDataWesternComp-Non-real-timeloadmigrGreenLow-CarbonDCAction-NationalhubDCsPUE<1.GreenPowerDirectConne-Supportssource-griComputing-PowerGridCoordination2025/26-Newnationalcomputinghubsmustreach>=8penetration;mandatedintoSource:Governmentdata,BernsteinanalAkeypillarofChina'sAlanddata-centerstlocatedinregionswithabundantrprimarilyintendedforAltraining,large-scaledatpopulationcentersandenterprisecustomerelocatingpower-intensSource:Wikicommon,BernsChina'sleadingcloudanddatacenteropByteDance,GDS,VNET,AtHubandChindatahaveannouncedsimilareportingrenewable-energenergyconsumptiondoubledfromtheprioryearaAlibabaGroup2025:self-builtDCclea2025:groupgreenelec48.5%(f82.9%;leasedDCRE21.4%;purchased4.13TW2025:REusage60%;directgreenpowerCommitmentlistedCleanCloud2024;detailedproEarlyREleaderinGPrankings(historical);post-privati2023);commitmentoncarbonnSource:Companydata,BernsteinanalyThesecommitmentsarincreasinglyavailablethrouimportantcompetitive80%60%20%Source:Companydata,BernsteinanalyTomeetChina'srapidlyrisingelectricintheUS.China'sdemonstratedabilitytoscalecapacityadditionssthecountryaddedmorethwindprojectsalongsidecontinuedinofnewcapacityperyeargoingfobutalsotoenableChina'renewableenergy,andeventualdec200Source:ChinaNBS,BernsteinanalysisandestChina'sabilitytoconhigh-voltage(UHV)transmissionneteffectivelyallowsChinatooperateasasinglenationalprenewablepowerischeapestrathertha2.8TWofwindandsolarcapacityby2030.Withouwouldincreaseandrenewabledeploymentwouldudemand.Energystorageisneededforstoringpowerwhentintegrationoflarge-scalesolarpower.BatterystoragAswiththedevelopmentinanyotherattheendof2025,morethan4xtheRo Source:Companydata,BeLastyearwasabreakoutyearforbatacceleratingfasterthanasfueledbydatacenters,elWeexpectChinatoinstallaround300GW(+40%y-o-y).Theseinstallati504030Source:EIA,BernsteinaSource:S&EConsulting,Bernsteininfrastructure,poweroverthenextfiveyears,asChinaexpandstransmissioncapaccomputinghubs.RenewablepowestorageisbecominganincreasinglycriticalcInovanceNariMegmeetHongfaTBEASieyuanNMOONSFortiorTechJiangsuLeiliRoshowKeliMotorSungrowLongiTongwKehuaDataKstarHyperstrongNaradaCamelCATLEVEEnergyGotionPSource:Bloomberg,BermsteinanalysAmongourcoverage,CATLisakeybeneficiarygivenitsleadewhileSungrowiswellstoragesystemsandgridSource:Bloomberg,Bernsteinotherwise,forpurposesoftheseReferencesto"Bernste(April1,2024onwards),SanfordC.Bernste2024onwards),SanfordC.Bernstein(HongKong)Limited盛博香港有限公司，SanfordC.Bernstein(Canada)Limited,SanfordC.Bernstein(India)PrivateLimited(SEBIregistrationno.INHO00006378),SPleasevisit:/sellside/Disclosures.actio(ex-Japan)exchanges-u·Market-Perform:Stockwillperfoaresuspendedtemporarilpredicted,atthepresentoneventsanddevelmarket).TheAutonomousbrandhasthreecategoriepredicted,atthepresenttiAutonomousbrand-preferredTheAutonomousbrandhasthreecategorioperatinginsimilarsectorWherethisreportcontainsinvestmentsecuritiesoftheissuer(s)refeauthor(s)ofthisreportmaydifferfromthepublishedTheAutonomousbrandhasthreecategorimaintainsandreliesowithintheFirm,andintooMarket-Perform(BernsteinNeutral(AutonomousB*ThesefiguresrepresenttheprovidedinvestmentbankingservicAsofJune30,2026.AllfiguThisresearchpublicationcoverssixor/sellside/Disclosures.actionoryoucanwritetotheDirectorofInstitutionalServicesLLC,245ParkAvenue,NewYoprevioustwelvemonthsfromthefollowingclients:ContemporBernsteinand/orafiliateshavereceivedctheprevioustwelvemonthsfromthefollowingcliBernsteinhasreceivedcompensatioThelegalentity(ies)employing+852SanfordC.Bernste+65SanfordC.Bernstein(Singapore)PrivbesubjecttoFINRA'srestrictionsregardingmarketingactivitiesreWherethisreporthasbthatalloftheviewsexpressedinthispublicsecuritiesorissuersandthatnrecommendationsorviewSeparatebrandingismaintainedfor"Bernstein"and“Autonomous”·Bernsteinproducesanumberofdiffquantitativeanalysisunderboththe“Auresearchproductmaydifferfromrecommenddifferingtimehorizons,methodologiesorotherwBernsteinAutonomousLLP,SanfordC.Bernstein(HongKong)Limited盛博香港有限公司andSanfordC.Bernstein(India).ForinformRegulation("MAR"andstandardsapplicabletodofanyspecificindiv("BTG")isresponsibleforthedisAutonomousLLP,authoriswithinArticle19(5)oftheFinancialSePromotionOrder”,(i)arepersonsfallingwithtoengageininvestmentactivitymayotherwiselawfullybeandregulatedbytheAutoritédeContheSFCPublicRegister(https:/www.sfc.hk/publicregWeb/corp/AXC846investors,asdefinedintheSecu("SFA').RecipientsinSingaporeshouldcontacorinconnectionwith,thiNeilBeveridge,Ph.D.+85221232648neil.beveridge@securitiesandcollectiveinvestmentschemesandanexemptfinanNo.20213710Wandlocatedat8MarinaBoulevard,#12-01,MaanyresponsibilityforfaorsoldwithinthePRCbymeansofthisdC·ー>ス夕イン株式会社),whichisregisteredinJapanasaFinancialInstrumentsBusin("Daiwa",youraccesstothisdocumentshouldnotbeconstruhasneitheranycontractualrelationshipwithToourreadersinAustralia:SanfordC.Bernstein(HongKong)Limited盛博香港有限公司isresponsiblefordistributingresearchU.K.laws,whichdiffersfromAustralianlaws.SanfordC.Bernstein(HongKong)Limited盛博香港有限公司isexemptfollowingfinancialservicestowholesaleclients:(ResearchAnalyst)Regulations,2014,havingregiCentre,PlotNosC-54andC-55,GBlock,Maharashtra,India(PhoneNo:+91-22-68421401).·FordetailsofAssociatesofdistributionofthi·OurComplianceoffiC.Bernstein(India)PrivateLimited(https://bernsteinresearch.inintermediaryorprovideanyassuranceofreturnstrulebook).PersonsotherthrecipientsofourcommunicationsorserviAllresearchpublicationsaredissand.Certain,butnotall,researcthird-partyvendorsorredistributedt