摩根士丹利-北美机器人：执行器：机器人肌肉需要美国奋力追赶-Actuators：Robot Muscle Needs American Hustle-20260913

RESEARCH

MorganStanley

September13,202610:32PMGMT

Robotics|NorthAmerica

Actuators:RobotMuscleNeedsAmericanHustle

Weprojectroboticstodrivesupernormalgrowthinactuator

demand,withkeycomponentvolumerisingupto200-400x

globallybetween2025and2050,oftenaccountingfor50%ormoreoftheroboticsBoM.Theproblem?TheUScanbarely

makethemwithoutChina.MajorchangeisneededtostayintheracePrivateCompany

TheFCCmayhavejustopenedthedoortoreshoringrobotics,buttheUSbarelyhasitsgeartogether...WithitsJulydecision,theFCChasbarrednewforeign-madehumanoids,quadrupeds,anddrones(inc.prevdecisionfromDec)fromreceiving

authorizationunlesstheyaremanufacturedintheUSandreach65%domestic

contentrequirements(risingto75%in2029).Theselocalcontenttargetsarenotremotelyplausible,inourview.TheabilityforOEMstohitthathurdlehinges

heavilyonthesupplychainforactuators(motors,bearings,reducers,andsensors)thatcanaccountforupto50%+ofarobot'sbillofmaterials.

Inourview,thecurrentrateofchangeofChina'srobotsupplychaincapabilitymaywidenvs.theUSatanacceleratingrateoverthenext5years.Inouropinion,

decisiveactionisneededtokeeptheUScompetitive(relevant?)vs.theChineseonAl-enabledroboticsby2030.Whilemuchworkislefttodo,thisreporthelpsidentifyUS-exposednameswithunderappreciatedoptionalitytotheemergingphysicalAI/roboticsecosystem.

Exhibit1:China'sActuatorChopsWereRecentlyonFullDisplayatthe2026

WorldRobotConferenceinBeijing.CantheUScompete?

SourceXinhua(OfficialStateNewspaperofChina)

Whatnow?Wesee4reshoringavenuesand3possiblescenariosplayingout,eachwithdifferentimpliedUSroboticspenetration:

·4KeyAvenues:

FOUNDATION

MORGANSTANLEY&CO.LLCAdamJonas,CFA

EquityAnalyst

AdamJonas@morganstanley.cm+1212761-1726

WilliamTackett,CFAResearchAssociate

+1212761-6028

Wlam.Tackett@morganstaneycom

MORGANSTANLEYASIALIMITED+ShengZhong

EquityAnalyst

+8522239-7821

ShengZhong@morganstanleycom

MORGANSTANLEY&CO.LLCAngelCastillo

EquityAnalyst

+1212761-1931

AngelCastilo@ArianaSalvatore

EquityStrategist

ArianaSalvatore@morganstanleycomKristineTLiwag

EquityAnalyst

+1212761-2980

+1212296-4322

KristineLiwag@AndrewSPercoco

EquityAnalyst

Andrew.Percooo@morganstanley.oom

MORGANSTANLEYASIALIMITED+LisaJiang

EquityAnalyst

+8522239-1282

LisaJiang1@morganstanley.oom

MORGANSTANLEY&CO.LLCCarlosDeALba

EquityAnalyst

+1212761-4927

Carlos.DeAba@

MORGANSTANLEYASIALIMITED+CarlosChai

ResearchAssociate

+8523963-3180

Carlos.Chai@morganstanley.oom

MORGANSTANLEY&CO.LLCJustinMLang

EquityAnalyst

+1212761-6251

JustinLang@JahvonteGBain

ResearchAssocate

+1212761-9231

+1212296-4539

JahvonteBain@DevinRoser

ResearchAssocate

Devin.Roser@morganstanleycom

MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswith

companiescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanley

Research.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanley

Researchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.

Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.

+=Analystsemployedbynon-U.SaffiliatesarenotregisteredwithFINRA,maynotbeassociatedpersonsofthememberandmaynotbesubjecttoFINRArestrictionson

communicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.

2

FOUNDATION

MorganStanley|RESEARCH

1.Companiesverticallyintegrateactuatorproduction:expectto

happen,butscalingupstreammanufacturingisverychallengingforthoseunexperiencedandmayonlybefeasibleforafew

2.ForeigncompaniesbuildcapacityinUS:alreadyhappeningatsmallscale,butpolicyoverhangcomplicates

3.Legacycompaniesexpandadjacentcapacity:potentialmajorlong-termgrowthtailwindforUSsuppliers,butroboticsis(atleastforthenear-term)Lowermarginandlowervolume-maycreatesomeanxiety.

4.Startupsfindmoreefficientwaystoproduceactuators:potentiallymostimpactful,butlongerterm

·3FutureScenarios:

。RapidTorque(BullCase):FCCdecisiontriggersasupply-chainflywheelwherelegacyindustrials,foreignentrants,andstartupsallscale

together,collapsingpricesanddrivingUSrobotsinservicefrom13mn(2025)to55mn(2030)and1.07bn(2050),withactuatordemandup9xand284xrespectively.

。UnevenGearUp(BaseCase):Progresshappensacrossallfouravenuesbutunevenly,astopOEMsverticallyintegrate,foreigncapitalenters

selectivelyviaJVs,incumbentspursuetargetedcapacityandM&A,andstartupsfillnichegaps,pushingUSrobotsinservicefrom13mn(2025)to34mn(2030)and674mn(2050),withUSactuatordemandup5xand

197xrespectively.

。FrictionLosses(BearCase):Politicaluncertainty,capitalcaution,andweakinnovationstallallfouravenues,leavingUSroboticspenetrationlaggingglobalpeersasrobotsinservicegrowonlyfrom13mn(2025)to21mn(2030)and364mn(2050),withUSactuatordemandup4xand119xrespectively.

Exhibit2:4Avenues;3ScenariosforRobotActuatorReshoring

FrictionLosses(Bear)

·Politicaluncertaintydetersforeignsupply

·Industrialsbalkatcapexandmarginrisk

·USpenetrationLagstherestofworid

Robotsinservice

13mn(2025)to21mn(2030)to364mn(2050)

Actuatordemand

4xby2030;119xby2050

UnevenGearUp(Base)

·LeadingOEMsintegate;othersasemble

·Foreigncapitaarivesselectively

·Legacyplayersexpandandbuycapability

》》RapidTorque(Bull)

·Industrialsandtoreignsuppierscommit

·Startupstakenascentniches

·Operatinglevoragecollapsesprices

Robotsinservice

13mn(2025)to34mn(2030)to674mn(2050)

13mn(2025)to55mn(2030)to1.07bn(2050)

9xby2030;284xby2050

5xby2030;191xby2050

FourAvenuestoUSActuatorCapacity

Companles

VerticayIntegrate

LegacyUSPlayers

Expand

ForelgnCompanlesBulldinUs

SourceMorganStanleyResearchestimates

MorganStanley|RESEARCHFOUNDATION

Exhibit3:KeyActuatorComponentsperRobot(2026e)

#ofcomponentsperrobot

■Reducers■Bearings■Motors

Note:Formoredetails,pleaserequestacopyofourglobalrobotmodel.Meanttobeabroadgeneralization.Pricingpercomponentwilldiffermateniallybetweenformfactors.

SourceMorganStanleyResearchestimates

Exhibit4:Bull/Base/BearEstimatesforUSRoboticsPenetration(Mns

RobotsinOperation):2025-2030

Exhibit5:Bull/Base/BearEstimatesforUSRoboticsPenetration(Mns

RobotsinOperation):2025-2050

ullas-ar

十器4图放

SourceMorganStanleyResearchestimates

SourceMorganStanleyResearchestimates

Multipolarityinmotion:wethinktheoveralldirectionoftravelistowardmorerestrictions,notfewer.WethinktheFCC'srestrictionexhibitsthegovernment'sinterestinpursuingAlsovereignty,vis-à-visagradualde-risking(notdecoupling)asnationalsecurityconcernsincreasinglyextendintothephysicalAlstack.The

upcomingUS-Chinasummitisacatalystworthwatching,butweseethisasadatapointonalonger-termtrendtowardmultipolarityandthe'twoworlds'dynamicofAlpolicyandadoption(seehereformore).Weseeindustrialpolicycrossingpartylines,whichmeansmidtermelectionsareunlikelytochangethecurrenttrajectory.

Historysuggestsinvestorssystematicallyunder-pricethe"boring"component

whenatechnologywaveturnsitintoabottleneck.Opticalfiberspentmuchofthepost-dot-comperiodasalow-margincommoditybeforeAldatacentersmadeitscarceagain;DRAMwasanarchetypalboom-bustcommoditytheindustrywas

sellingbelowcostin2022-23beforejoininginaspartofthe"Albottleneck"tradesdrivingpricesanddemandmateriallyhigher;Largepowertransformers,historicallyalow-margin,capital-intensivebusiness,nowcarry2-3+yearlead-times;andgasturbines,oftenwrittenoffasstructurallydecliningafterthe2018-20power

writedowns,areeffectivelysoldout.Ineachcase,significantstockre-ratings

followedsupplythatcouldnotrespondduetoalackofcapacityorlostprocessknowledge.Webelievethemarketcouldbemateriallymis-framingactuator

componentsaslow-valuecontentwhensupplymaydirectlygovernthepaceof

MORGANSTANLEYRESEARCH3

RESEARCH

FOUNDATION

MorganStanley

roboticspenetration.

WeIdentify4keyareasofpotentialbottleneck:

·RareEarthMagnets:Chinacontrols60%ofminedmagneticrareearths,91%ofrefiningand94%ofsinteredmagnetproduction(IEA).

·Reducers:USfirmsremainlargelydependentonJapaneseharmonic,

cycloidal,andplanetarygearingsupplierswithChinesechallengersscalingfast.

·Screws:PlanetaryrollerscrewsintheUShavehistoricallybeenbuiltinsmall,custombatchesforaerospace,defenseandmedicalcustomers.

·6-AxisForce-TorqueSensors:MajorUSincumbentwithhighshare,butaveryexpensivecomponent(upto$8kormore).China-basedcompetitorsscalingwithcheaperalternatives-nowpotentiallyblockedfromUS.

RelevantStocks?WeIntroducethe"MotorDozen":PublicCompaniesRelevanttoBuildingtheUSActuatorSupplyChain:Timken(TKR-CoveredbyAngelCastillo),MPMaterials(MP-CoveredbyCarlosDeALba),RegalRexnord(RRX-NotCovered),ALlient(ALNT-NotCovered),Novanta(NOVT-NotCovered),HarmonicDrive

Systems(6324.T-CoveredbyLisaJiang),RBCBearings(RBC-CoveredbyKristineLiwag),Moog(MOG.A-CoveredbyKristineLiwag),Nabtesco(6268.T-CoveredbyLisaJiang),LeaderDrive(688017.SS-CoveredbyShengZhong),MinebeaMitsumi(6479.T-CoveredbyShojiSato),Tesla(TSLA-CoveredbyAndrewPercoco).

ThisintentionallynarrowlistismeanttobetailoredtocompanieswebelievemostrelevanttosupplyingtheUSroboticsmarket.Foramorecomprehensivelistofglobalsuppliers,pleaseseeourHumanoid100.

Exhibit6:WeIntroducethe"MorganStanleyMotorDozen":PublicCompaniesRelevanttoBuildingtheUSActuatorSupplyChain

TIMKEN

TESL需

MorganStanley

MotorDozen

Nabtesco

RBC

RegalfG

Rexnord

leadeacltwe)

MOOG

SourceMorganStanleyResearch

MorganStanley|RESEARCHFOUNDATION

MORGANSTANLEYRESEARCH5

Roboticsactuators(allformfactors)couldtheoreticallytransformcomponentsupplierrevenue,exceedingcurrentsalesbyanorderofmagnitudeinsome

cases.Togiveinvestorsasenseofscalefortheopportunity(globallyhere,notjusttheUS),weproxytheactuatoropportunityasmotors+bearings+reducers,sizingthe2030globalTAMat$94bninourbasecase($140bnbull,$71bnbear),andflexahypotheticalsupplier'smarketshareagainstit,expressingtheresultingrevenueasapercentageofthemedianMotorDozenpeer's2025sales($2.1bn).Evenmodest

sharecapturemovestheneedle.Forexample,0.5%ofthebase-case2030TAMequalsroughly23%ofthemedianpeer'scurrentsales,risingtoabout46%at1%share.Longer-datednumbersdwarfthis.Ourbase-caseTAMreaches$1.3tnby

2040and$3.8tnby2050,resultinginthesame1%sharebeingworthroughly6xthemedianpeer'scurrentannualrevenuein2040and18xin2050.

Exhibit7:EventhebearcasegrowsactuatorcomponentTAM64xby2050,theoreticallymakinga1%shareworth18xamediansupplier'sentire2025

revenue(referstoglobalfiguresvs.USonlyinthiscase).

TotalActuatorTAM

2025

2030e

2040e

2050e

Bull

$140bn

$2.3tn

$6.5tn

Base

$21.8bn

$94bn

$1.3tn

$3.8tn

Bear

$71bn

$0.8tn

$1.4tn

BasecaseCAGRoff2025

34%

31%

23%

SupplierRevenueat1%Share+ImpliedIncreasevs.MedianPeer2025TotalRevs

MultiplesbeloweachfigurearexthemedianMotorDozenpeer's2025sales($2.1bn),whichassumesnopeergrowth;ascaledevice,notaforwardcomparison

2025

2030e

2040e

2050e

RBull

$1.4bn0.7x

$23bn

11.0x

$65bn

31.4x

Base

$0.2bn

$0.9bn0.5x

$13bn

6.2x

$38bn

18.3x

Bear

$0.7bn

0.3x

$7.5bn

3.6x

$14bn

6.7x

Note:BasedonMotorDozenlistMotorpeers=Timken,RegalRexnord,Allient,Moog.MinebeaMitsumiBeaingspeers=Timken,RegalRexnord,RBCBearings,MinebeaMitsumi.Reduoerpeers=Timken,RegalRexnod,HarmonicDriveSystems,Nabtesoo,

Leaderdrive.

SourceMorganStanleyResearch

FOUNDATION

MorganStanley|RESEARCH

Exhibit8:ExplodedActuatorw/KeyComponents,Prices,andSuppliers(BasedonGeneralizedDesignofHumanoidRobotsToday)

Integratedjointmodule

USPlayers

GlobalPlayers

Component

2025UnitCost(US$)

Global

RegalRexnord(RRX)Allient(ALNT)

MPMaterials(MP)

Motor

Framelessstatorplusrotor

magnets

■■Inovance(300124CH)

China:$110to$170

Non-China:$340to$480

Maxon(private)

●Shin-Etsu(4063JP)

■LMng(300748CH)

●Nidee(6594JP)

Global

Encoder

Measuresjointangle,

speedanddirection

Broadcom(AVGO)Sensata(ST)

Heidenhain(private)

墨Renishaw(RSWLN)

Non-China:$300to$600

China:$100to$200

●Omron(6645JP)

■MEMSensing(688286CH)

Timken(TKR)

RegalRexnord(RRX)

Reducer

Convertsspeedinto

torque

Global

China:$200

Non-China:$300

●HarmonieDrive(6324JP)Nabtesco(6268JP)

■Leaderdrive(688017CH)

■Shuanghuan(002472CH)

■Laifual(3952HK)

Linearactuator

Moog(MOG/A)

RegalRexnord(RRX)

Screw

Convertsrotationinto

linearmotion

Schaeffler(SHA₀.F)

SKF(SKFBSS)

THK(6481JP)

■Hengli(601100CH)

China:$100to$600

Non-China:$280to$1,600

Global

Bearing

Carriesradiatandaxial

jointloads

Timken(TKR)

RBCBearings(RBC)

SKF(SKFBSS)

Schaeffler(SHA₀.F)

●NSK(6471JP)

■Shuanglin(300100CH)

China:$5to$15

Non-China:$10to$50

Separatefromjointmodule

Us

Globat

6-AxisTorqueSensor

atkeyjoints(notinevery

DoF)

Novanta(NOVT)

Interface(private)

Spactris(SXSLN)

SRIrivnte)

■■Kumwei(private)

China:$2,000

Non-China:$8,000

■Keli(603662CH)

Note:barsshow2025unitcost,logscale;grey=China,colour=non-China.Reduoerandscrewgraphics/costsareharmonicandplanetaryrollerrespectively,picierthanplanetaryreducerandballscrew,supplierscoverboth.

SourceChannelcheckwithOEMsandsupplychain(perMSChinaIndustrial/RoboticsTeam),MorganStanleyResearch.

Fundingin2026formanufacturing-relatedstartupsareatanall-timehigh,alreadysurpassing2025levels,andonpacefor+80%y/y."Manufacturing"isdefinedasanycompanythatplaysaroleintheproductionofphysicalproducts:

energy,defensetech,robotics,aerospace,space,materials,etc.AfteranumberoflargeIPOexitsthisyear,wecouldpotentiallyexpect(all-thingequal)evengreatercompanyformationasfundsreceiveliquidityonlong-heldinvestments,LP'spushfornewbets,andemployees/foundersreceivecapitaltostarttheirnextventure.Whyshouldpublicmarketinvestorscare?Thiscohortofcompaniescould

potentiallyrepresentstheIPOpipelineforthenextdecade+asizable%ofthe

dollarsinvestedinamanufacturingstartuprepresentsfundingtocompetewiththeincumbents.Wehighlightahandfulofprivatestartupsexposedtotheactuatorsupplychain:WestMag,AtlasControlSystems,VulcanElements,Hadrian.

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MorganStanley|RESEARCH

Exhibit9:VCFundingforManufacturing-RelatedStartups

MedlanPostValuatlonoNewDeals

$36.0B

532.0B528.0B

90M

3200B

$70M

$16.0B

$50M

-30%

$8.0B

$4.0B

-$10M

2016

20172018

20212022

2023

2026YTD

2020

2019

2024

71%

$110M

$150M

79%

12%

60%

44%

-28%

SourcePitchBook,MorganStanleyResearch

LessonsfromChina.Chinafacedthesameactuatorbottlenecklessthanadecadeagoandhassincelargelysolvedtheissue,enabledbyLocalizationfirstof

downstreamOEMscreatingalargeenoughmarketforupstreamdomestic

componentsuppliers.Domesticsuppliersheldroughly41%ofChina'sharmonic

reducermarketin2017butaround88%by2025.FourfeaturesofChina'sindustrialecosystemsupportedthistransition,namely:governmenttechroadmaps,state-

directedcapitalinvestment,alarge-scaletechnicallaborforce,andampleinfrastructureinvestment.

Exhibit10:ChinawasinasimilarpositionastheUSlessthanadecadeago,andgraduallylocalizeditscomponentsupplychain,allowingittobecomethe

dominantroboticsplayerintheworld.

ChinaIndustrialRobotInstallationsbySupplierOrigin

350

300

37%

32%

47%

30%

22%

31%

28%

53%

50

71%

2022

2023

2021

2015

2016

2019

2017

2020

27%

58%

2014

2024

2018

78%

73%

29%

SourceIntemationaFederationofRobotics,MorganStanleyResearch

TableofContents:

1.NoForeignRobots-WhatNow?

2.4AreasWhereActuatorBottleneckIsPronounced

3.DemandScenarios&SizingtheOpportunity

4.TheMotorDozen:CompaniesSupportingtheUSActuatorSupplyChain

5.Startups&PrivateCompaniestoFollow

6.LessonsfromChina:FromBottlenecktoLocalization

7.USPublicPolicy:SeekingAISovereignty

8

Foundation

8.

AutoSuppliers:RoboticsReshoringBroadenstheDomesticContent

Opportunity

9.

PotentialForeignCapacityExpansionintotheUS

ForFurtherReading:

•Robotics:HumanoidHorizons:DoRobotsHaveaPRProblem?(28Jul2026)

•PhysicalAI:TheMorganStanleyRobotAlmanac(7Dec2025)

•SpaceExplorationTechnologiesCorp.:SpaceXandRobotics(15Jul2026)

•ChinaIndustrials:Robotics:USProtectionism-CompetitionRising(3Aug2026)

•Robotics:ThoughtsonUSRobotProtectionism(30Jul2026)

•EmbodiedAI:Who'sGonnaMaketheBots?AddingContractManufacturerstotheHumanoid100(26Mar2026)

•Humanoids:TheHumanoid100:MappingtheHumanoidRobotValueChain(6Feb2025)

Foundation

NoForeignRobots-WhatNow?

TherecentFCCdecisionblockingforeign-producedrobotsanddronesisintendedtore-shorethelargely-Chinadominatedsupplychain.Webelieveitwillbealong,

involvedprocess.OnJuly28,theTrumpadministrationthroughtheFCCunveiled

measuresbarringimportsofnewforeign-madehumanoidandquadrupedrobots,

alongsideconnectedpowerinverters,framedasprotectingtheUSAIbuildoutfrom

nationalsecuritythreatsandincentivizingthereshoringofkeyindustrieswhileadoptionisstillintheearlystages.Thedecisionplaced"advancedroboticdevices"FCC'sCoveredList,whichmirroredFCC’sDecember2025decisionblockingimportsofnewforeign-made

dronesandcriticalcomponents.Thisspecificdecisionencompassesawiderangeof

productsrangingfromservicerobots,AMRs,humanoid,quadrupeds,andsomeconsumerrobotics;itwouldexcludemosttraditionalindustrialrobots.

•WhatistheFCCCoveredList?Equipmentplacedonthelistisprohibitedfrom

receivingFCCequipmentauthorizationforittobeimported,marketed,orsoldintheUS.RobotsqualifybecausetheycarryembeddedWiFi/Bluetooth/cellular

radios.It'simportanttonotethattherestrictionappliestonewmodelsseeking

authorization.Existingauthorizedmodelsalreadyinthefieldarenotretroactivelybanned.TheFCCmadeasimilardecisioninDecember2025ondrones,which

blockednewforeign-madedronesandcriticalcomponentsfromreceiving

authorization,effectivelyrestrictingnewproductsfromChineseleaderssuchasDJIwhileleavingpreviouslyapprovedmodelsunaffected.

•PotentialreadacrossforfurtherAIprotectionism:TheFCCCoveredListhasnowbeenextendedinsequencefromtelecom(Huawei/ZTE)in2021todronesinDecember2025,consumerroutersinMarch2026,andnowrobotsandinverters,signalingthattheadministrationincreasinglytreatsthefullAIhardwarestack

(compute,power,andnowembodied/physicalAI)aswithinthesamenational-

securityperimeter.

TobeclassifiedasUS-produced,arobotmusthaveatleast65%domesticcontentbyvalue.Weestimateactuatorcontentalonecanputarobotoverthathurdle.Aroboticdevicemustqualifyasa"domesticendproduct"undertheBuyAmericanrulestoavoidbeingdeemed"foreign-produced"bytheFCC.Inpracticethatmeansarobotordrone

mustbeUS-assembledwithroughly65%domesticcontentbyvaluetoescapethelabel.BasedonanalysisfromourChinaRoboticsteam(ledbyShengZhong),actuatorcontentalonecanaccountfornearly50%ormoreofthetotalbill-of-materialsofahumanoid

robotwithanupto3x+gapinpricebetweenChina-producedandnon-China-produced

components.Combinedwithsemiconductorandbatterycontent,webelieveitmaybe

challengingformostUS-assembledrobotstodaytoqualify.Whileourteams'prior

analysisisspecifictohumanoids,fromourconversationsacrosstheindustry,thisdynamicappliestonearlyallrobotformfactors-especiallydroneswherearguably>90%ofthesupplychainiscenteredinChina.

•Toclarify,an"actuator"isgeneraltermforamechanicalpartthatconverts

energyintomotion.Asageneralruleofthumb,mostrobotjoints=anactuator,butactuatorsareusedinautomotive,aerospace,industrials-anymachinethatmoves.Thereare2maintypes:linearactuatorswhichpushandpull,androtary

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RESEARCH

FOUNDATION

actuatorswhichturn.Theycanbeexplodedintomultiplesubcomponents

dependingonthedesign:motors(incrareearthmagnets),bearings,reducers,

screws,encoders,sensors-thevastmajorityofwhichissourcedfromoutsidetheUS,generallyAsia.

WiththeFCCdecision,webelieveourUSroboticspenetrationprojectionscouldbeatriskwithoutkeyplayersinthesupplychainsteppingup.TheUSalreadytrailsChina

roboticspenetrationbyawidemargin.AccordingtotheInternationalFederationof

Robotics(IFR),Chinarepresented>50%ofallglobalindustrialrobotinstallationsin2024,puttingitat470robotsper10,000workersvs.295fortheUS.Forhumanoids

specifically,dataanalyticsfirmSmartAnalyticsGlobalestimatesthatChina-basedOEMsaccountedfor>97%ofglobalhumanoidshipmentsin1H26.Inourmodel,theUS

representsjust8%of2025globalshipments(inclusiveofallformfactors)vs.33%forChina,withthegapnarrowingonlymodestlythrough2030.Restrictingforeign-madesupplyhinderacompany'sneartermabilitytosourcelower-costcomponents,puttingpressureonmanufacturingabilityandadoption.

Exhibit11:EstimatedHumanoidRobotBill-of-Materials(FromChinaIndustrials/RoboticsTeam-ledbyShengZhong)

ChinaSupplyChain

2025

2034

(~1mnsales)

2025

TotalBoM/robot(USSk)

46

16

131

Actuator

22

7

58

Dexteroushand

15

6

47

Feet

4

1

16

Vision

0.4

0.2

0.5

Chp+Software

3

1

7

Battery

0.1

0.1

0.3

Others

1

1

3

Note:BoMassumptionisbasedonthelatestspecforTeslasOptimus,ie.Gen2bodyparts(30DegreeofFreedom(DoF)by14rotary

actuatorsand14linearactuators)andGen3dexteroushand(22DoFeachhandwithtendon+microplanetaryrolerscrewforactuationandtactilesensor).

Source:MorganStanleyResearch.

Exhibit12:2024IndustrialRobotInstallations(Top10Countries)perIFR.NotetheFCCdecisiondoesnottargetindustrialrobotsspecifically,butweestimatethatpenetrationfortheformfactorsimpactedlooksimilarifnotmoreextremethantrendsshownhere.

ThousandsUnisInstalled

China

ueder

USA

Gemany

Mexico

Spain

350

295

MorethanAIlOtherCountriesCombined

200

150

100

44.5

30.627

8.8

(54%ofGlobalInstalls)

5.1

34.2

Korea

Source:InternationalFederationofRobotics(WorldRobotics2025Report),MorganStanleyResearch

Tawan

Wesee4potentialavenueswherebytheUScouldbuildlarge-scaleactuator

manufacturing:Thesearenotmutuallyexclusive,andwe'dexpecteachtohappenata

MorganStanleyResearch11

Foundation

differentpaceandscale.

•CompaniesVerticalIntegrate:Manycompaniesalreadyarguethattheypractice"verticalintegration",butfromourexperience,thisgenerallyappliesonlytothe

assemblylevelandtheeasiest-to-producecomponents(batteryenclosures,plasticmoldings,etc.).EvenTesla,arguablyoneofthemostverticallyintegratedAI

roboticscompaniestoday,isknowntosourceactuatorcomponentsfromtheChinasupplychaindespiteitsstatedgoalstodeeplyverticallyintegrateovertime.Wedoexpectmoreverticalintegration,butthecapitalintensivenatureofscaling

manufacturing+logisticscomplexitiescombinedwithalargelystartupdominatednatureofroboticsintheUS(wheregreater$continuetoberequiredforcompute)wouldlimitabilityinthenearterm.

•ForeignCompaniesBuildCapacityintheUS:Likelytooearlyforadvanced

roboticOEMsgivennascentnatureofUSmarket(mostlyforR&Dpurposes),butsomecomponentsuppliersalreadyplanningUSandnearbycapacity(ex:

Leaderdrive'sJVwithMinth),andmayseeotherstakeamoreactiveapproachtoreshoring.Overall,weexpectsomeonthemargin,butoutsideofadrasticchangeinpolicystanceoradirectinvitation,foreign-based(China-basedespecially)

companiesmaybehesitanttocommitcapitalinarelativelynascentmarketwithbroadpoliticaluncertainty.

•LegacyUSCompaniesExpandAdjacentCapacity:Ourchannelcheckswith

roboticscompaniessuggestthat,whilemultipleUS-basedsuppliersexistformanycriticalactuatorcomponents,thereisasignificantgapinavailablevolumesatpricepointscomparabletothoseofferedbyChinesesuppliers.WethinktheFCC

decisioncouldacceleratethedecisionmakingprocessformanylegacyindustrialcompaniestoexpandcapacitydeeperintocriticalactuationtechnologies.

•StartupsFillinGap:Anumberofstartups(Westmag,AtlasMotionSystems,etc.)aredirectlytargetingtheactuatorproblem.Wethinkcompanyformationmaystillbeintheearlyinnings.Itstillwon'tbeeasy,butamulti-yearmanufacturingbuildoutiswellsui