摩根大通-中国茶饮与咖啡-加盟商温度检测

J.P.Morgan

AsiaPacificEquityResearch

09September2026

ChinaBubble&Brew

FranchiseeTemperatureCheck:MixueSSSpressurepersists;Coffeehelps(selectively);Gumingimproving

Wehostedanexpertcallon8Sepwithamulti-brandfranchiseeoperating12Mixue,5Guming,2LuckyCup,and2FuluFreshBeerstoresinHenanprovince.Thekeymessagewasconsistent:MixueSSSremainsunderpressure,largelyduetostorecannibalization,althoughtheYoYdeclineshouldmoderatefromNovemberoneasiercompsandslowernetworkexpansion.Mixue'scoffeeroll-outisworkingintherightlocations,butadoptionremainsselective-andithasaddedincrementalpressureonnearbyLuckyCupstores.GumingcontinuestooutperformMixueonSSSand,pertheexpert,couldreturntopositivegrowthin4Q26.Overall,thecallfurtherreinforcesourviewthatMixue(UW)isinastrategyshift/transitionphasewithstructurallyslowergrowth.Guming(OW)remainsanalphageneratorinourview,thoughthe2H26cadencelookstougherfollowingaverystrong2025-1H26.Lookinginto4Q26,wethinkself-helpandturnaroundstories-Chagee(OW)andLuckin(OW)-couldofferbetterrisk/rewardandoutperform,supportedbyareboundinearningsandshareholderreturnoptionality

ConsumerJessieXuAC

(852)2800-8590

jessie.j.xu@

J.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)Limited/J.P.MorganBroking(HongKong)Limited

SylviaHu

(86-21)6106-6284

sylvia.hu@

SACRegistrationNumber:S1730526010001

J.P.MorganSecurities(China)CompanyLimited

DSKim

(852)2800-8597

ds.kim@

J.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)Limited/J.P.

MorganBroking(HongKong)Limited

Mixuebrand:SSSpressurepersists;turningpointhingesonsloweropenings

●SSSremainedunderpressuredespiteahigheraverageticket,withstorecannibalizationthekeydrag.Theexpert'sMixuestoressaw~10%YoYsalesdeclinein1H26,narrowingto~7%inJulyand~7-8%inAugust.Averageticketsizerose~5%YoY,supportedbyRmb1-2priceincreasesonselectednewproductsanda1-2ppthighermixfrommerchandise/snacks,butcupvolumefell~13%YoY.Regionally,theexpertseescentralandnorthernChinaholdingupbetter,whileeasternandsouthernChinafacetoughercompetition.

●Higher-pricedproductupgradeshaveyettoseebroadconsumeradoption.Mixue'scorecustomersremainhighlyprice-sensitive,andthecompanyisrollingoutproductandsupply-chainupgradesgradually.Higher-pricedSKUscurrentlycontribute～10%ofsales;inthefirst10dayspost-launch,theytypicallyaccountforonly15-16%ofsales,versus20-25%forconventionalnewlaunches.

●SSScouldimprovefromNovemberasthecompseaseandexpansionslows.SinceJuly,Mixuehastightenedfranchiseescreeningandapprovals,andshiftedregionaloperatingmanagers'KPIsfromnew-storeopeningstowardsingle-storeperformance.Only~800storesopenedinJuly-August,withnetaddsof<300.TheexpertexpectsFY26domesticnetaddsof~3,500(vstheoriginal5,000target)andbelievesSSScouldturnpositiveafterDouble11withcontributionfromfreshly-madecoffeeoneasiercomps.

●Coffeeisbecomingameaningfulincrementalsalescontributor,buttherolloutremainsselective.Sevenoftheexpert's~12storeshaveinstalledcoffeemachines;freshly-madecoffeenowcontributes~8%ofcupvolume(vs1-2%previously)andgenerates~50cups/store/day,with~70%ofcustomersappearingincremental.Theprocurementcostofthemachineis~Rmb60k,withfranchiseespayingRmb33kupfrontandthebalancewaivedifdailysalesreach40cupswithinsixmonths;storeshitting60cupscouldreceivea10%discountonrawmaterialprocurement.Theexpertestimates~70%ofinstalledstorescanreachthe40-cupthreshold,implying~one-yearpaybackforqualifyingstores.However,onlyslightlymorethan7,000storeshaveinstalled

27Jul2026-FranchiseeTemperatureCheck:ExpertCallTakeaways(link)

11Mar2026-ExpertCallTakeaways-ChallengesAheadforMixueandLuckyCup(link)

11Jan2026-What'shappening?Our

views,andtakeawaysfromtheexpertcall(link)

Seepage4foranalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures,includingnon-USanalystdisclosures.

2

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AsiaPacificEquityResearch

09September2026

J.PMorgan

machines(vs～15,000ontheinitiallistandanearlierambitionof20,000+),reflectingcautiousadoptioninlower-tiermarketswithweakercoffeepenetration.

●Storeupgradescanliftsales,whilefranchiseeeconomicsremainattractiveinwell-runlocations.Mixueisupgradingstoreimage,equipment,anddigitalcapabilities,andincreasingtypicalnew-storesizefrom~30sqmto~50sqm.Recentlyupgradedstoressawaninitial10-15%salesuplift,thoughhigherrentslimitednet-marginimprovement.A~50sqmstorerequiresRmb450-500kinvestmentanddelivers~11%netmarginafterdelivery-relatedcosts,with~14-16monthspayback.Futureexpansionmaytilttowardtownships,transporthubsandunderpenetratedtop-tiercities,althoughfranchiseesremaincautiousonhigher-costurbansites.

●ASEANremainsinnet-closuremode,butstorerationalizationishelpingSSSrecover.IndonesiaandVietnamareseeingheavieradjustmentsvialow-qualitystoreclosuresandsiteoptimization,whileMalaysiaandThailandareperformingrelativelybetter.TheexpertestimatesASEANSSSat~+7%YoYpost-reformdespite~200-300netclosures.Expansionshouldremaindisciplinedin2H26;whetherthenetworkcanreturntoroughlylastyear'slevelbyyear-endwilldependontheavailabilityofhigh-qualitylocations.

LuckyCup:Mixuecoffeeshock,repositioningstillunproven,closurescontinue

●Mixue'scoffeelaunchhasmateriallydisruptedLuckyCupstores.AfterMixuerolledoutcoffeeinMarch,LuckyCupstoreslocatednearMixuereportedlysawsalesdeclinebyroughlyone-thirdtoone-halfinMarch-April.Theimpactwasmostpronouncedforstoresthatopenedaggressivelylastyearandformaturestoreswithheavylocationoverlap.WhileMixuehasrecentlyshifteditsmarketingemphasisbacktowardsteadrinks-offeringsomenear-termrelief-theexpertbelievesanyrenewedcoffeelaunchesandpromotionsfromMixuewouldagainputmeaningfulpressureonnearbyLuckyCupstores.

●Mature-storeperformancehasstabilized,buttherepositioningstrategyremainsunproven.Theexpertestimatesmature-storeSSSisup~1-2%YoY,yetonly~60%ofthestoresareconsistentlyprofitable;theremaining~40%areloss-makingoraroundbreakeven,largelyduetoinsufficientcupvolume.Since2025,LuckyCuphasbeenupgradingproductquality,pricing,andstorelocations,withspecialtydrinkspricedatRmb10-16andincrementalnew-storefocusshiftingtowardeasternandsouthernChina.ThegoalistoreduceoverlapwithMixueandrepositionLuckyCupclosertoLuckinandCotti,buttheexpertremainscautiousonwhetherbetterlocationscandeliverenoughincrementalsalestooffsethigheroperatingcosts.

●Netclosuresarelikelytocontinuethroughyear-end.LuckyCuphasrecorded~1,000netclosuresYTD,accordingtothespeaker.ItsFY26grossopeningplanhasbeencutfrom~3,000to~2,000stores,withnomorethan~1,000grossopeningspermittedin2H26.Theexpertexpectsthenetworktoremaininnet-closuremodethroughyear-end.asunderperformingstoreexitscontinuetooutpaceopenings.

FuluFreshBeer:lowcapex,fastpayback-butseasonalityandslowerexpansionahead

●Lowinvestmentthresholdandshortpayback.Upfrontcapexis~Rmb150kperstore(rent,equipment,andinitialinventory).Peak-seasondailysalesreached~Rmb4kinJune,supportedbycelebrityendorsementandWorldCup-relateddemand.Store-levelgrossmarginis~58-60%andoperatingmargin~16-17%,implyinga~7-9monthpaybackundernormalconditions.

●Strongseasonalitylimitsfull-yearutilization.Street-frontstoresnearbarbecueandlate-nightdininghubsperformwellinwarmermonths,butbusinesscandropsharply-andsomestoresmaytemporarilyclose-fromSeptember-Novemberonward.

J.PMorgan

AsiaPacificEquityResearch

09September2026

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●·ExpansionislikelytoslowafterrapidYTDgrowth.Thenetworkhasgrownfrom~1,800storeslastyearto~3,400currently.Followingthegroup-widedecisiontoslowopeningsfromAugust,theexpertexpectsnomorethan~400additionalopeningsbyyear-end,takingthenetworkto~3,800stores.

Guming:outperformingMixueonSSS;4Qrecoveryappearsachievable

●SSSpressureappearsmilderthanatMixue.Theexpert'sfiveGumingstoressawsalesdecline~6-7%YoYin1H26,improvingto~5-6%inAugust.Withastrongernewproductpipelineandahigheraverageticket,theexpertbelievesSSScouldreturntopositivegrowthfromOctober.

●BrandmomentuminHenanremainsrelativelylimited.Despitecontinuedproductinnovation,theexpertnotedthatGuming'slisting,storeopeningsinNanjing,andrecentcollaborationshavehadlimitedspilloverintobrandawarenessinHenanprovince.Localexpansionhasstayedsubduedandappearsweakerthanin2019,partlyduetoMixue'sstronghome-marketposition.

·Coffeecontributionisnowinthedoubledigits,butbreakfast-relatedinvestmentslooklesscompelling.Fouroftheexpert'sfivestoreshaveinstalledcoffeemachines,withcoffeecontributing~10-11%ofsales-belowthe~20%reportedinsomeotherregions.Nonehasinstalledbakeryequipment.Intheexpert'slocations(Henanprovince),renovationneeds,incrementallabor,andwastagefromshort-shelf-lifeproductsoutweightheincrementalbreakfastdemand,likelyreflectingregionaldifferencesinconsumerhabitsandtastes.

J.PMorgan

AsiaPacificEquityResearch

09September2026

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(852)2800-8590

jessie.j.xu@

4

CompaniesDiscussedinThisReport(allpricesinthisreportasofmarketcloseon09September2026,unlessotherwiseindicated)

Chagee(CHA/S12.59[08September2026]/OW),Guming-H(1364.HK/HK$24.00/OW),LuckinCoffee(LKNCY/S33.55[08September2026]/OW),MixueGroup-H(2097.HK/HK$200.00/UW)

AnalystCertification:TheResearchAnalyst(s)denotedbyan“AC”onthecoverofthisreportcertifies(or,wheremultipleResearchAnalystsareprimarilyresponsibleforthisreport,theResearchAnalystdenotedbyan“AC”onthecoverorwithinthedocumentindividuallycertifies,withrespecttoeachsecurityorisuerthattheResearchAnalystcoversinthisresearch)that:(1)alloftheviewsexpressedinthisreport

accuratelyreflecttheResearchAnalyst'spersonalviewsaboutanyandallofthesubjectsecuritiesorissuers;and(2)nopartofanyofthe

ResearchAnalyst'scompensationwas,is,orwilledirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedbythe

ResearchAnalyst(s)inthisreport.ForallKorea-basedResearchAnalystslistedonthefrontcover,ifapplicable,theyalsocertify,asperKOFIArequirements,thattheResearchAnalyst'sanalysiswasmadeingoodfaithandthattheviewsreflecttheResearchAnalyst'sownopinion,

withoutundueinfluenceorintervention.

AllauthorsnamedwithinthisreportareResearchAnalystswhoproduceindependentresearchunlessotherwisespecified.InEurope,SectorSpecialists(SalesandTrading)maybeshownonthisreportascontactsbutarenotauthorsofthereportorpartoftheResearchDepartment.

ImportantDisclosures

.MarketMaker/LiquidityProvider:J.P.Morganisamarketmakerand/orliquidityproviderinthefinancialinstrumentsof/relatedtoChagee,LuckinCoffeeorrelatedentities.

.MarketMaker/LiquidityProvider(HongKong):J.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)Limitedand/orJ.P.MorganBroking(HongKong)Limitedand/oranaffiliateisamarketmakerand/orliquidityproviderinthesecuritiesofGuming-H,MixueGroup-Horrelatedentitiesandorwarrantsoroptionsthereon,whicharelistedortradedonTheStockExchangeofHongKongLimited.

.Client:J.P.Morgancurrentlyhas,orhadwithinthepast12months,thefollowingentity(ies)asclients:Chagee,Guming-H,LuckinCoffeeorrelatedentities.

.Client/Non-InvestmentBanking,Securities-Related:J.P.Morgancurrentlyhas,orhadwithinthepast12months,thefollowingentity(ies)asclients,andtheservicesprovidedwerenon-investment-banking,securities-related:LuckinCoffeeorrelatedentities.

.Client/Non-Securities-Related:J.P.Morgancurentlyhas,orhadwithinthepast12months,thefollowingentity(ies)asclients,andtheservicesprovidedwerenon-securities-related:Chageeorrelatedentities.

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request.

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AsiaPacificEquityResearch

09September2026

J.PMorgan

PriceTarget($)

Price($)

Rating

Date

50

45

40

35

Chagee(CHA,CHAUS)PriceChart

14-Nov-2501-Dec-25

13-Feb-2602-Apr-26

29-May-2621-Jul-26

31-Aug-26

15.3214.9910.209.1610.1611.58

10.80

14.212.411.516

15

16.516.6

UW

UW

N

OWowow

OW

N51.5

oWS15owss⁵

uwS12.4

ow$16

ow$16.6

UWS142

Price($)

25

20

15

10

MayJulSepNovJanMarMayJulSep

252525252626262626

Source:BloombergFinanceL.P.andJ.P.Morgan;pricedataadjustedforstocksplitsanddividends.InitiatedcoverageNov13,2025.Allsharepricesareasofmarketcloseonthepreviousbusinessday.Guming-H(1364.HK,1364HK)PriceChart

45

OwHK$38

40

oWHK536

35

oWHK55

30

Price(HK$)25

20

15

10

5

Apr26

Oct

25

Jan

26

Jul

25

Apr25

oWHK$28

Jul26

Date

Rating

Price(HK$)

PriceTarget(HKS)

14-Nov-25

OW

22.40

35

21-Jan-26

oW

28.38

36

27-Mar-26

OW

25.42

38

21-Jul-26

OW

21.38

26

31-Aug-26

ow

26.60

28

Source:BloombergFinanceLP.andJ.P.Morgan;pricedataadjustedforstockInitiatedcoverageNov13,2025.AllsharepricesareasofmarketcloseontheLuckinCoffee(LKNCY,LKNCYUS)PriceChart

60

55

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40

Price($)

35

30

25

20

Sep24

Jan24

Jan25

May24

May

25

splitsanddividends.previousbusinessday.

owS44ow546

ow$46

ows⁴3

ows55owS45

SepJanMaySep

2526

Date

Rating

Price($)

PriceTarget(5)

14-Nov-25

OW

38.08

55

04-Feb-26

OW

34.89

46

28-Feb-26

Ow

34.98

44

30-Apr-26

OW

36.00

45

21-Jul-26

OW

32.05

43

04-Aug-26

Ow

35.00

46

Source:BloombergFinanceL.P.andJ.P.Morgan;pricedataadjustedforstocksplitsanddividends.InitiatedcoverageNov13,2025.Allsharepricesareasofmarketcloseonthepreviousbusinessday.

6

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J.PMorgan

MixueGroup-H(2097.HK,2097HK)PriceChart900

800

700

oWHK521

600

Price(HK$)500

400

300

200

Apr25

100

Jul

2526

uWHKS270

Apr26

Date

Rating

Price(HK$)

PriceTarget(HKS)

UWHKS20014-Nov-25

OW

417.80

521

26-Mar-26

UW

322.00

270

21-Jul-26

UW

222.60

200

UWHK$19031-Aug-26

UW

211.60

190

Jul

26

Source:BloombergFinanceL.P.andJ.P.Morgan;pricedataadjustedforstocksplitsanddividends.

InitiatedcoverageNov13,2025.Allsharepricesareasofmarketcloseonthepreviousbusinessday.

Thechart(s)showJ.P.Morgan'scontinuingcoverageofthestocks;thecurrentanalystsmayormaynothavecovereditovertheentireperiod.J.P.Morganratingsordesignations:OW=Overweight,N=Neutral,UW=Underweight,NR=NotRated

ExplanationofEquityResearchRatings,DesignationsandAnalyst(s)CoverageUniverse:

J.P.Morganusesthefollowingratingsystem:Overweight(overthedurationofthepricetargetindicatedinthisreport,weexpectthisstockwilloutperformtheaveragetotalreturnofthestocksintheResearchAnalyst's,ortheResearchAnalyst'steam's,coverageuniverse);Neutral(overthedurationofthepricetargetindicatedinthisreport,weexpectthisstockwillperforminlinewiththeaveragetotalreturnofthestocksintheResearchAnalyst's,ortheResearchAnalyst'steam's,coverageuniverse);andUnderweight(overthedurationofthepricetargetindicatedin

thisreport,weexpectthisstockwillunderperformtheaveragetotalreturnofthestocksintheResearchAnalyst's,ortheResearchAnalyst's

team's,coverageuniverse.NRisNotRated.Inthiscase,J.P.Morganhasremovedtheratingand,ifapplicable,thepricetarget,forthisstock

becauseofeitheralackofasufficientfundamentalbasisorforlegal,regulatoryorpolicyreasons.Thepreviousratingand,ifapplicable,the

pricetarget,nolongershouldbereliedupon.AnNRdesignationisnotarecommendationorarating.Somestocksundercoveragehavearatingbutnopricetarget;inthesecases,weexpectthestockwilloutperform/performinline/underperformtheaveragetotalreturnofthestocksintheResearchAnalyst's,ortheResearchAnalyst'steam's,coverageuniverseoftherelevantdurationoftheregion.InourAsia(ex-Australiaandex-India)andU.K.small-andmid-capEquityResearch,eachstock'sexpectedtotalreturniscomparedtotheexpectedtotalreturnofabenchmarkcountrymarketindex,nottothoseResearchAnalysts'coverageuniverse.IfitdoesnotappearintheImportantDisclosuressectionofthisreport,thecertifyingResearchAnalyst'scoverageuniversecanbefoundonJ.P.Morgan'sResearchwebsite,

.

CoverageUniverse:Xu

,

Jessie:BudweiserAsiaPacific

(

1876.HK

),CRBeverage-H(2460.HK),Chagee(CHA),ChinaFeiheLimited

(6186.HK),ChinaMengniuDairy(2319.HK),ChinaResourcesBeer(0291)(0291.HK),EastrocBeverage-A(605499.SS),EastrocBeverage-H(9980.HK),Guming-H(1364.HK),HaitianFlavoring&Food-A(603288.SS),InnerMongoliaYili-A(600887.SS),KweichowMoutaiCo

-A(600519.SS),LuckinCoffe(LKNCY),LuzhouLaojiao-A(000568.SZ),Miniso-ADR(MNSO),Miniso-H(9896.HK),MixueGroup-H(2097.HK),NongfuSpring-H(9633.HK),PopMart-H(9992.HK),TsingtaoBrewery-A(600600.SS),TsingtaoBrewery-H(0168.HK),WHGroup(0288)(0288.HK),Wuliangye-A(000858.SZ),Yanghe-A(002304.SZ),YumChinaHoldingsInc(YUMC)

J.P.MorganEquityResearchRatingsDistribution,asofJuly04,2026

Overweight

(buy)

Neutral

(hold)

Underweight

(sell)

J.P.MorganGlobalEquityResearchCoverage*

53%

36%

12%

IBclients**

83%

80%

73%

JPMSEquityResearchCoverage*

51%

37%

12%

IBclients**

95%

92%

87%

*Pleasenotethatthepercentagesmaynotaddto100%becauseofrounding.

**Percentageofsubjectcompanieswithineachofthe"buy,""hold"and"sell"categoriesforwhichJ.P.Morganhasprovidedinvestmentbankingserviceswithintheprevious12months

ForpurposesofFINRAratingsdistributionrulesonly,ourOverweightratingfallsintoabuyratingcategory;ourNeutralratingfallsintoaholdratingcategory;andourUnderweightratingfallsintoasellratingcategory.PleasenotethatstockswithanNRdesignationarenotincludedinthetableabove.Thisinformationiscurrentasoftheendofthemostrecentcalendarquarter.

EquityValuationandRisks:Forvaluationmethodologyandrisksassociatedwithcoveredcompaniesorpricetargetsforcoveredcompanies,pleaseseethemostrecentcompany-specificresearchreportat

,contacttheprimaryanalystoryourJ.P.

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