生成式AI与未来工作报告

JohnZysman,MarkNitzberg

GenerativeAl

andtheFutureofWork

AugmentationorAutomation?

JULY2024#38

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#38GenerativeAIandtheFutureofWork

ABOUTTHEAUTHORS

JohnZysman\\TheBerkeleyRoundtableontheInternationalEconomy(BRIE)\\MarkNitzberg\\UCBerkeleyCenterforHuman-CompatibleAI

ABOUTTHEWEIZENBAUMINSTITUTE

TheWeizenbaumInstituteisajointprojectfundedbytheFederalMinistryofEducation

andResearch(BMBF)andtheStateofBerlin.Itconductsinterdisciplinaryandbasic

researchonthedigitaltransformationofsocietyandprovidesevidence-andvalue-

basedoptionsforactioninordertoshapedigitizationinasustainable,self-determined

andresponsiblemanner.

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#38GenerativeAIandtheFutureofWork

WeizenbaumDiscussionPaper

GenerativeAIandtheFutureofWorkAugmentationorAutomation?

JohnZysman,MarkNitzberg

\\Abstract1

ThisreportexaminesthepotentialimpactofGenerativeartificialintelligence(AI)systems,suchasChatGPT,onthefutureofworkand,byimplication,onproductivity.ItarguesthatalthoughGenerativeAIispowerful,ithassignificantlimitationsandrisksthatrequirehumanstoremain“intheloop”notonlytopreventsystemsfromgoingofftherails,buttocapturevalue.Ratherthantakingadeterministicviewthatartificialintelligence(AI)willinevitablydestroyjobs,thearticlesuggeststhatananalysisshouldstartwithhowfirmscanstrategicallydeploythesetoolstogainanadvantage.Itaskswhether“augmentation”or“simplisticautomation”liesahead.Ourobjectiveistomovebeyondhypeanddespair.2

TheexistingdigitalinfrastructurehasenabledAItobeadoptedquickly.However,projectionsbasedsolelyonautomatingexistingtasksfailtocapturethecomplexreorganizationsthatarelikelytohappen.Firmsinsectorssuchasprofessionalservices,materials,andpharmaceuticalsseemtohaveparticularexposuretotheuseofGenerativeAItools.Adaptationswillvaryacrosscontextsanddependgreatlyonwhocontrolsthedecisionsaboutdeployment.Maintainingthecentralityofhumansislikelytoprovecrucial—intrainingsystems,curatingdata,andassessingoutputs.Onequestioniswhichbusinessstrategiesandpublicpoliciesencouragethatengage-mentandmakeitpossible.

AlthoughAIregulationdebatesmatter,promotingsocialprosperitydependsheavilyondirect-lyshapingthetrajectoryofthedevelopmentanduseofAI.Thisrequiresinfluencingthecon-straintsandtheincentivesthatfirmsface,aswellasthestrategicmindsetsofdecisionmakers.Whichgroupsareengagedinthediscussionsanddebatesisofvitalimportance.Thearticlerec-ommendsthat,beyondthetraditionalpolicyproposals,anindependentpublic-interestcon-sultancyneedstobeestablishedinordertodesigncreativebusinessstrategiesthataugmentworkersinamannerthatwillsupport,ratherthanhinder,socialprosperity.Ultimately,avoid-ingadystopianscenariomighthingeonfosteringnewnormsinwhichhumancapabilitiesre-mainessential.

1Consistentwiththethemeofthisarticle,theinitialdraft,revisedandrewrittenbyNitzbergandZysman,wasgeneratedby“Claude,”thetoolcreatedbyAnthropic.

2JohnZysman,MartinKenney,&LauraTyson,BeyondHopeandDespair:DevelopingHealthyCommunitiesinanEraofIntelligentTools,InnovationPolicyLabWorkingPaperSeries2019-01,

https://munkschool.utoronto.ca/media/2642/download?inline=/download/.

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\\TableofContents

1Introduction:AutomationorAugmentation?5

2ABaselineandBeyond8

3FromAIWinterthroughMachineLearning13

toLargeLangaugeModels

4AssessingtheImpactofEmergingGenerativeAIonWork22

5IsanAIEconomyforSocialProsperityPossible?31

Imprint36

#38GenerativeAIandtheFutureofWork\5

1Introduction:AutomationorAugmentation?

ThisessayconsiderstheimpactofGenerativeartificialintelligence(hereafter,GenAI)onwork,theorganizationofwork,and,byimplication,onproductivity.3Itsgoalistoframethedebate,soastogobeyondthehypeanddespair.4Hypeanddespairhaveaccompaniedeverydigitalera,fromthetransistorandmicroprocessors,tocloudcomputingandplatforms,andnowmodernAIandGenAI.Inwritingit,weseektopresentabalancedunderstandingofhowtheevolutionofthislatesttechnologyrevolutioncouldbesteered.

GenAIis“atypeofartificialintelligencetechnologythatutilizesdeeplearningmodelstocreatevariousformsofcontent,suchastext,images,andcode,basedonthedatatheyweretrainedon.”5Thisrepresentsasignificantleapincomputingcapability.Theseemingspeedofdeploy-mentandadoptioninitselfgeneratesasenseofurgencythatsocietyandtheeconomyhavereachedadramaticturningpoint.

GenAIemergedabruptlyinboththepubliceyeandcommercialenvironmentsnotonlybe-causeofsignificantinnovation,butbecausetheessentialinfrastructureandtechnologyforitsdeploymentwerealreadyinplace.Data,computingpower,andnetworkswereallathandwhenmachinelearningandtransformer-basedsystemsweredevelopedanddeployed.Theex-traordinarypaceofexperimentationwiththesenewtools,ifnotyetfullordiverseadoption,waspossiblebecausethecomplementarydigitaltoolsandinfrastructureneededforthede-ploymentofGenAIwereattheready.Theseveralpriordecades,perhapsbestcharacterizedastheemergenceofthe“PlatformEconomy”,sawextraordinaryexpansioninallofthedigitalca-pacitiesrequiredforGenerativeAItoemerge:storage,computation,andinformationcommu-nicationtechnologies.6Then,ofcourse,demandfornewchipdesignsandgraphicschips,fromtheexpandingvideogamessectorandthencryptomining,drovesemiconductorinnovationthatcouldthenbedirectlyappliedtomachinelearningandGenerativeAI.ThiswasparticularlytrueofNvidia,whosevaluationhassurgedtoanextraordinarylevel.Thegianttechcompanies–Google,Amazon,Microsoft–hadthefinancialresourcestopursuethenext“thing,”andtherocketengineswereignited.

3Setasidethedifferingdefinitionsandanalyticsofthenotionofproductivityandsimplynotethatithighlightsthelinkbetweentheinputsintotheproductiveeconomyanditsoutputsasmeasured,albeitveryimperfectly,inthemarketeconomy.See,e.g.,DianeCoyle,TheMea-sureofProgress(PrincetonUniversityPress:forthcomingin2025).

4Zysman,J.,Kenney,M.,&Tyson,L.BeyondHypeandDespair:DevelopingHealthyCommunitiesintheEraofIntelligentTools(January,2019),availableatSSRN:

/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3414691

5DefinedbyPerplexity,itselfaGenAItool,onMarch21,2024.

6M.Kenney&J.Zysman,TheRiseofthePlatformEconomy,IssuesinScienceandTechnology,32(3)(2016),retrievedfrom

/

rise-platform-economy-big-data-work

;J.Zysman&M.Kenney,TheNextPhaseintheDigitalRevolution:IntelligenceTools,Platforms,Growth,Employment,CommunicationsoftheACM,61(2)(2018),54–63,retrievedfrom

/magazines/2018/2/224635-t

he-next-phase-in-the-digitalrevolution/abstract/

;A.GarciaCalvo,M.Kenney,&J.Zysman,UnderstandingWorkintheOnlinePlatformEconomy:TheNarrow,theBroad,andtheSystemicPerspectives,BerkeleyRoundTableontheInternationalEconomy(2022,July15),avail-ableatSSRN:

/abstract=4164068

or

/10.2139/ssrn.4164068/

.

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GenAI’sremarkablecapacitieswillfacilitate,encourage,andperhapsdrivesignificantchangesintheorganizationofworkaswellasinmarketcompetitionacrossdiverseaspectsoftheecon-

omy,andperhapsgeneraterealproductivityincreases.Todate,digitalautomationhasmeantroutine-biasedtechnicalchange(RBTC),whichsubstituteselectroniccapitalforhumanlaborinroutinetasks.Now,withAI,weseeRBTConsteroids,anddeploymentofthetechnologyhasbeenextendedtotasksthatarelessroutineandmorecognitivelyheavy.7WillGenAIcontinuethistrajectoryofdigitalautomationandrepresentarenewedthreatintheformofdisplacementofjobsandworkers?Orwillthenewcapabilitiesenabletheaugmentationofworkers’capaci-tiesandgenerateamoreintelligenteconomy?Willworkandlabormarketsexperiencegenuineaugmentation,orsimpleautomation?

WespeculatethatthelimitsonthecapabilitiesofGenAI,andrisksinherentinitsuse,willcon-straintheutilityofthesetoolsandtheirdeployment.Atitscore,despitethenewsophisticationofferedbyGenAI,thetoolsthatleverageitare,andfornowwillremain,principallyrootedinstatisticalpredictionwithoutanymodelofhowtheworldworks.Consequently,GenAItoolscanspinuppredictionsandpresentationsthat,despitebeingdevelopedineasy-to-usedialoguesandpresentedwithseemingcertainty,maybearlittlerelationtoanyrealityorbeaninventedrealityaltogether.Second,thenatureoflargelanguagemodels(LLM)meansthatitisimpossi-bletoworkbackwardfromanoutcometounderstandhowtheresultswereobtained.Forexam-ple,explicitlyimplementingorapplyingresultsembedsthepossibility,perhapstheprobability,ofbiasorpersuasivebutincorrectstatementsandprocesses.OnenotedAIscholarremarked:“Ifitisalargelanguagemodel,itisabeastconjuredratherthandesigned.”

Therefore,wepostulatethatitmightbeaninherentconsequenceofthestatisticalfoundationofAIandGenAIthat,ifGenAIistobeusefullyandsafelyexploited,humansmustremainintheloopthroughoutitsdevelopment,training,curation,anddeployment.AlthoughGenAIisex-ceptionallypowerful,itslimitsandriskswillrequiredoingso.Thegoalofthisessayistoframedebate,togobeyondthehypeanddespairthathasaccompaniedeveryeraofnewdigitaltech-nology,beginningwiththetransistorandmicroprocessors,throughcloudcomputingandplat-forms,andnowmodernAIandGenAI.8Ittriestogobeyondthehypeofpromotersandthede-spairengenderedbythehypeinordertoobtainabalancedunderstandingofhowtheevolutionofthistechnologycouldbesteered.

Obviously,wedonotknowhowGenAItechnologywillevolve,howitscapacitieswillexpand,orwhetheritsrisksandlimitswillremainentrenchedorberesolved.Consequently,wecanonlyspeculateaboutthepathofdeployment.HowGenAItoolsareactuallydeployedwilldepend,amongotherthings,oneconomiccalculations,firmcapacities,andregulatoryconsiderations.Thatsaid,wehaveseveralexpectations:

7LauraD.Tyson&JohnZysman,Automation,AI,andWork,JournaloftheAmericanAcademyofArts&Sciences,151(2)(2022),retrievedfrom

/sites/default/files/daedalus/downloads/Daedalus_Sp22_AI-%26-Society_0.pdf

.

8Zysman,J.,Kenney,M.,&Tyson,L.BeyondHypeandDespair:DevelopingHealthyCommunitiesintheEraofIntelligentTools(January,2019),availableatSSRN:

/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3414691

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1.Firmswillexperimentinordertofindwaystocreatemarketadvantage.

2.Someexperimentswillsupportworkereffortstoaugmentworkerproductivity.

3.Someexperimentswillleadtonewapproachestoworkandtheorganizationofwork,andotherswillfadeawayorbeabandonedaltogether.

Nosinglestrategyforimplementingthesetoolswillbeemployed,butearlysuccessesmaywelldefinebroadertrajectoriesforaportionoftheeconomy.

9

InthefaceoftheuncertaintyabouttheevolutionofGenAItechnologyaswellasitspathfordeployment,how,then,shouldwecon-sideritsconsequencesforworkand,morewidely,forproductivity?Responsestothisquestionshouldtakethefollowingsteps:

1)ClarifywhichsectorsorcompetitiveenvironmentsarethemostexposedtoGenAIorlikelytobeinfluencedbyitintheshortormediumterm.

2)Considerwhichbusinessstrategiesandtacticsusedbyfirmsthatemploythesetoolsmightcreateamarketadvantage.

\\Thisassumesthatfirms,notpublicadministrations,willlikelybethedriversofde-velopment,andthisassumptionshouldbestated.

3)Inanydiscussionofstrategiesandtactics,considertheimpactonwork.

\\Jobs,andthetasksthatcomprisethem,areanoutcomeofbusinessandadministra-tivechoices,butshouldnotbetheinitialfocusofanalysis;theconventionalfocuson“tasks”ismisplaced.

Ourdiscussionproceedsasfollows:

\\Section2,intendedtocreateabaselineforourdiscussionofGenAI,summarizeswhatweun-derstoodin2022abouttheimpactofmachinelearningAIonworkandtheeconomy,beforeChatGPTanditsilktookcenterstage.Aspartofthisdiscussion,wespeculatethattheendur-ingconcernsaboutjoblossesmightgivewaytoconcernsaboutlaborshortages,asjobsareadaptedtocreateadvantagefromthenewtechnologies.

\\Section3considerswhatthenewtechnologyisandwhatitcanandcannotdobasedonworkwithcollaboratorsattheBerkeleyCenterforHumanCompatibleArtificialIntelligence(CHAI).Someofthisisbasic,butisworthrestatingforthesakeofclarity.

\\Section4considershowwemighttranslatethedevelopmentsnotedinSection3intoatleastsensiblespeculationabouttheconsequencesofGenAIforthefutureofwork.

\\Section5extendstheanalysisinSection4toconsidertheimplicationsforpolicyandfirmstrategy.Weask:Ifthethemebecomeslaborshortages,ratherthanjobdisplacement,howshouldthatinfluencebothpolicyandstrategy?

9P.A.David,NarrowWindows,BlindGiantsandAngryOrphans,WorkingPaperno.10,CenterforEconomicPolicyResearch,StanfordUniversity(1986);apointhammeredintheliteratureontheexampleoftheQwertykeyboardfortyping;itisnotonlytheanswerthatbecomesembeddedbutasolution.SeealsoD.Noble,SocialChoiceinMachineDesign:TheCaseofAutomaticallyControlledMachineTools,andaChallengeforLabor,Politics&Society,8(3–4)(1978),313–347.Noblearguesthattechnology“bearsthesocialimprintofitsauthors,”inthesensethatthereisalwaysarangeofpossibilitiesoralternativesforitsdevelopmentdelimitedovertimebythesocialchoicesofthosewiththepowertochoose.

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2ABaselineandBeyond

GenAIrepresentsanewphaseinthedevelopmentanddeploymentofAI.Beforeconsideringthisdigitalnewcomer’simpactonworknowandinthefuture,weshouldestablishabaselineabouttheeffectstodateofearlierdevelopmentsinmachinelearningAIandotheraspectsofthedigitallydrivenshiftingstructureofwork.Wealsonotethat,overthenextfewyears,concernsintheadvancedcountriesaboutthedisplacementoflabormightgivewaytoconcernsaboutshortagesinskilledlabor.That,ofcourse,wouldturnthepolicydebateonitshead.

SomeclearlessonscanbelearnedfromthefirstroundofAIinnovationthatcameafterthelongAIwinter:machinelearningwithneuralnetworks.10

\\ThiseraofRBTConsteroids,asmanyhaveargued,hasnegativelyaffectedactivitieswithaskilllevelbetweenthosethatarelowskillandhighskill.11

\\Althoughthetechnologyaffectsalleconomies,itsnationalimpacthassignificantdifferenc-es,basedontraining,welfare,andlabormarketissues.

\\Automationhasmovedfrommanufacturingtoservices,andfromcognitiveroutineactivi-tiestothosethatarelessroutine.Routineserviceshavecertainlybeenautomated,andeverbroaderswathsofservicesareaffected.Twodistinctiveelementstogethershifthowvalueiscreated:

1)Manyproductshavebecomeserviceofferings.

2)Digitalplatformfirmshavebecomeacrucialpartofthemarketeconomy.

Thecorequestioninthenextsections,then,isasfollows:whatisnewinGenAI,andhowmightitsfeaturesdrivethenextroundofworkadjustments?But,first,wesuggestabaseline.

2.1AIMachineLearningIsRoutine-BiasedTechnologicalDevelopmentonSteroids

AsTysonandZysmanhaveargued,AI’simpactonworkthusfarisbestcharacterizedas“rou-tine-biasedtechnologicaldeploymentonsteroids,”inthatweare“addingintelligencetoautoma-tiontoolsthatsubstituteforhumansinphysicaltasksandsubstitutingforhumansinroutine,butincreasinglynonroutinecognitivetasksaswell.”12Thislastcategory–nonroutinecognitivetasks–islikelytobemostaffectedbyGenAI.

10

/wiki/AI_winter

AIwinteris,asreportedbyWikipedia,aperiodofreducedfundingandinterestinAIresearch.

Therehavebeenseveraldoubttimesbetweenthehypetimes.–Wikipediahasanarticleonthem.Whenresearchfailedtodeliveronapromise,therewouldbereducedinterestandfunding.

11LauraTysonandIhavepresentedourviewsonthis.Thearticlenotesthoseonwhoseworkwedrew.Tyson&Zysman,Automation,AI&Work.Muchofthediscussionhere,includingthelanguageinsomecases,isdrawnfromthatarticle.

12LauraD.Tyson,JohnZysman;Automation,AI&Work.Daedalus2022;151(2):256–271.doi:

/10.1162/daed_a_01914

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Thestudiesontheimpactofthismachinelearning(ML)–basedAIroundofinnovationonworkconcludethat,asinpriorerasofautomation,jobsremaininspiteoftheseshifts.13RatherthanexpectingworktaskstobesweptawaybyAI,amoreaccurateviewisthattheproductionsys-temsthemselvesarebeingreconfiguredinresponsetoAI.14Thequestionhasbeen:whatkindsofworktaskswillbecollaterallyimpactedbythisbroaderreconfiguration?Employmenthasbeenpolarized,and,althoughautomationhasnotentirelysweptawayjobs,goodjobsformid-dle-andsemi-skilledworkersareinshortsupply,andtheyhaveexperiencedstagnantwagegrowth,bothofwhichcontributetoinequality.

Theerosionofthemiddle-andsemiskilledroutinejobshasbifurcatedthelabormarket,suchthatlow-skilledjobsareavailableatthebottom,andhigh-skill,high-wagejobsareavailableatthetop.15Thetechnologyinitselfdoesnotdrivetheinequality;rather,theinequalityisdrivenbyhowitisdeployed.Althoughthetendencytowardbifurcationisfeltacrosstheadvancedcountries,theimpactdiffersacrosslabormarkets,withspecificrulesandarrangementsdampeningtheextentofthebifurcationofwork,andsocialwelfareprogramscushioningtheconsequences.16

Thediscussiononautomationhaslongfocusedonmanufacturing.Overtheyears,robotsinautomobileproduction,withassemblylinesandpaintshopsfilledwiththesemechanicalwork-ers,wereemblematicoftheimpactofautomation.Strictlyspeaking,muchofthatautomationhasnotbeenaboutworktasksbut,instead,aboutthetechnicaladvantageaffordedbyrobotsand,consequently,thereorganizationofworkactivities.Semiconductorfabricationishighlyautomatedbecausethecharacteristicsoftheproductionprocessesmeanthatthechipscannotbemanufacturedinanyotherway.Similarly,advancesinbatteryproduction,whichisalreadyautomated,willbeneededinordertorealizethehopethatsolid-statebatterieswillfacilitateashifttoanelectricity-drivengreeneconomy.

OfrelevancetowhatwemayanticipatefromthedeploymentofGenAI,thenationaldiffer-encesinhowpriordigitalautomationtoolsareusedaredramatic.TheJapanesenumericallycontrolled(NC)machinetool“cells,”fromearlieryears,withmultiplesimpletoolsthatprovideflexibilityfortheentirelinewhiledependingonworkerknow-how,canbecontrastedwithGer-many’shigh-end,multipurposecomplextoolsandAmerica’sstandardtools,whichwereoften

13S.Albanesietal.,ReportsofAIEndingHumanLabourMayBeGreatlyExaggerated,EuropeanCentralBank(2023,November28),retrievedfrom

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economicresearch/resbull/2023/html/ecb.rb231128~0a16e73d87.en.html

14F.Butollo,TheReboundEffectsofAutomation,WeizenbaumSeries#27,Berlin(2024);Butolloarguedthateverfinerandmoresophisti-cateddivisionsoflaborbalancethelabormarketsanddrivedemandforworkers,shiftingtherequiredskills.

https://www.weizenbaum-li-

brary.de/items/9d438f0a-f0e4-41d2-b933-1bcdf8a0d2bf

Also,asarguedbyHalVarian,demographicshiftsarecrucialtotheconditionoflabormarketsandinfluencetheadoptionofdigitaltechnologies;Automationversusprocreation(akabotsversustots),VOXeu,CEPR,March30,2020,

/voxeu/columns/automation-versus-procreation-aka-bots-versus-tots/

.

15Tyson&Zysman,Automation,AI&Work;H.J.Holzer,UnderstandingtheImpactofAutomationonWorkers,Jobs,andWages,BrookingsInstitution(2022,January19),retrievedfrom

/articles/understanding-the-impact-of-automation-on-work-

ers-jobs-and-wages/

;D.Acemoglu&P.Restrepo,Tasks,Automation,andtheRiseinU.S.WageInequality,Econometrica,90(5)(2022),1973–2016,retrievedfrom

/sites/default/files/2022-10/Tasks%20Automation%20and%20the%20Rise%20

in%20US%20Wage%20Inequality.pdf

;D.Acemoglu&P.Restrepo,UnpackingSkillBias:AutomationandNewTasks,AEAPapersandPro-ceedings,110(2020),356-361,DOI:

/10.1257/pandp.20201063

;A.DiBattista,S.Grayling,E.Hasselaar,T.Leopold,R.Li,M.Ray-ner,&S.Zahidi,FutureofJobsReport2023,WorldEconomicForum(2023,May),retrievedfrom

/docs/WEF_Fu-

ture_of_Jobs_2023.pdf

.

16WhileRBTChaddrivenmarketforcesofinequality,theextremeinequalitythatsetsapartthe.1%fromthe1%andindeedthe.01%fromthe1%isaproductoftaxpolicyandfinancialmarketregulations.

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aimedatreplacingworkersonaone-to-onebasis.StudiesonthedeploymentofautomationbyHelperetal.andlaterbyAcemogluetal.showthatconsultingfirmsandthosewithMBAshavequitedifferentvisionsofhowtousethesetoolscomparedtothecompaniesthatconductthede-ploymentcoordinationofthesetoolsin-house.17Similarly,theGermandebateoverthepoten-tialof“Industry4.0”predominantlyhingesondifferentviewsaboutwhocontrolstheproduc-tionprocessand,inevitably,howthetoolsareused.18Thelessonfromthesepriorexperiencesisthatthepartieswhodeploythesetools,forwhatpurpose,andinwhatcontext,arecrucialfortheultimateconsequences.

Alsoevidentbutstillworthnotingisthat,astheeconomyhasmovedfrommanufacturingtodi-verseservices,routineserviceactivitiesarebeingautomated.Nevertheless,anincreasingpor-tionofjobsinvolvecognitivetasks–thatis,nonroutinecognitivetasks.Considertheprocessofcheckingoutatagrocerystore:workformerlyperformedbyaclerkhasbeentransferredtothecustomer,whonowactsascashierandbagpacker.Eventhis“customerascashier”couldbeeliminatedbysensorandcamera-basedsystems,asseeninthecaseofGrabango,19acompanythatsimplytracksactivityandpresentsareceipttothecustomeruponexiting.

Oneassertionthatweneedtoconsider,aspartofthemovetoservices,istheextenttowhichGenAIwillbeabletodisplaceevenmoresophisticatedcognitivetasksandtheextenttowhichtheuseofGenAIforcognitivetasksresultsinworkreorganizationwithnewtasks.Verysophis-ticatedtasks,suchasactuarialestimationofinsurancerisks,havebeenaugmentedbycomput-ers,anddecadesagobegantofacilitatetheconstructionofcustomizedpoliciesbyinsuranceagentsastheyworkwiththeirclients.Thatledtomorediversifiedinsuranceofferings,enablingthemtowritepoliciesonthefly.Ratherthansellingrigidlyfixedpolicies,insuranceagentshadtolearnhowtoworkwithclientstocustomizetheofferingstofittheirneeds.

Becausetraditionallymanufacturedproductsareincreasinglybeingsoldasservicesorportalstoservices,howvalueiscreatedandwherecrucialworkactivitiesarelocatedintheproduction/distributionsystemhasalsoshifted.20Thetransitiontoproductssoldasservicesiscertainlyfa-cilitatedbytheabilitytocollect,store,andanalyzelargedatasets.21Consider,forexample,tiresandaircraftengines:autoandtruckfleetscanobtaintiresasaservice,purchasingasetnumber

17D.Acemoglu,A.He,&D.leMaire,EclipseofRent-Sharing:TheEffectsofManagers’BusinessEducationonWagesandtheLaborShareintheUSandDenmark,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,WorkingPaper29874(2022),retrievedfrom

/papers/

w29874/

.

18T.Pardi,M.Krzywdzinski,&B.Luethje,DigitalManufacturingRevolutionsasPoliticalProjectsandHypes:EvidencesfromtheAutoSec-tor,InternationalLabourOrganization,WorkingPaper3(2020,April),retrievedfrom

/wcmsp5/groups/public/dgre-

ports/inst/documents/publication/wcms_742905.pdf

.;S.Helper&J.Kiehl,Developingsuppliercapabilities:Marketandnon-marketapproaches,IndustryandInnovation11(1-2)(2004):89–107

19Grabango,Checkout-FreeTechnology.(n.d.),

.NotethatGrabango’sapproachisquitedistinctfromAmazon’snowabandonedtechnology.

20Howfarthiswillextendisspeculation.Thetendencyismostevidentin,forexample,fleetsaleswherethebuyercanfixpredictablecosts,sincethepurchaseisbylandmilesbytrucksorairmilesforairplaneengines.Whilethepurveyorcanlearnandinternalizethelearning,keepingtheircostsofprovisionbelowthesalesprice.

21J.Zysman,TheAlgorithmicRevolution?TheFourthServiceTransformation,CommunicationsoftheACM,49(7)(2006,July),retrievedfrom

/magazines/2006/7/5869-the-algorithmic-revolutionthe-fourthservice-transformation/abstract/

;J.Zysmanetal.,ServiceswithEverything:TheICT-EnabledDigitalTransformationofServices,inTheThirdGlobalization:CanWealthyNationsStayRichintheTwenty-FirstCentury?,ed.D.Breznitz,&J.Zysman,99-129,OxfordUniversityPress(2013,March).

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ofmilesfromthepurveyor.Michelin,forinstance,ensures