中国AI基础设施热潮：SemiAnalysis中国数据中心模型解读

2026/10/811:50TheChineseAIInfrastructureBoom:IntroducingtheSemiAnalysisChinaDatacenterModel

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TheChineseAIInfrastructureBoom:IntroducingtheSemiAnalysisChinaDatacenterModel

1,000+facilitiesacross60+operatorsmapped,builtretail-firstandflippedbyAI,

largesthyperscalerleases1/5nationalcapacity,100MWin12months,EasternDataWesternCompute

EVERLYN

,

DYLANPATEL

,AND

PATRICKSCHAABI

、和ANDSEP25,2026·PAIDPAID

Chinasitsatthefrontieroftheglobalmodelrace.GLM5.3andKimiK3arethelatestinarunofstrikingopen-weightsreleases.ByteDance'sDoubao

serves345MmonthlyusersasChina'sChatGPT,andSeedanceistheState-Of-The-Artvideogenerationmodel.

Everyoneofthosemodelsrunsonadatacenter,andChinahasbeenbuildingthematapacethathasgonelargelyunmeasuredoutsidethecountry.The

biggesttenantfilesno10-K.Severalofthelargestlandlordshaveneverlisted.MostoftheprimarysourcesareinChinese.Sothemarketsettledontwolazyassumptions:Chinaisbig,andChinaisempty.Publishedestimatesof

China’sdatacentercapacitydifferby15x,andreportskeepcitinghighvacancyrates.

Aswithourfiagship

SemiAnalysisDatacenterModel

,weusebuilding-level

datatoshowwhichofthemostwidelycitednarrativeshold,startingwithhowlargethemarketis.

Theglobalmodeltracksover5,000facilitiesacrossfourregions.TheUSleadstheworldwith56GWofcapacityasof2026YE,followedby~15GWforAPACex-China,~14GWforEMEA,and~2GWforLatinAmerica.Untilnow,itstoppedattheborderofChina.Todaywecrossit.

©2026DylanPatel

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thehomeforgreatculture

hathe

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restofAsia.Thisexcludes~20GWofdatedpipelineandanother~30GWofannouncedprojects.

Source:

SemiAnalysisDatacenterModel

,

SemiAnalysisChinaDatacenter

Model

Growthisataninfiectionpoint.In2Q26,thecombinedcapexofAlibaba,

Tencent,andBaidu(“BAT”)reached$20B,morethandoublingYoY,andforthefirsttimeonrecord,allthreepostednegativefreecashfiow.Thisisthelargestcapexstep-upinthesector’shistory.

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Thattotalleavesoutthelargestspenderofall,ByteDance,whichremains

private.AccordingtoourChinaDatacenterModel,ByteDancealoneoccupies

roughlyafifthofdelivereddatacentercapacityinChina,anditrentsnearlyall

ofit,makingitthesinglemostimportantcustomerforallwholesale

colocationplayersinthecountry.

Source:

SemiAnalysisChinaDatacenterModel

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Thelistedplayersgettheattention,buttheyareonlythevisibletipofthe

iceberg.Thisisalsotruefordatacenterlandlords.GDSandVNET,theonlytwoChinesedatacenterlandlordslistedintheUS,signed1.3GWofwholesale

ordersin1H26.ButaccordingtoourChinaDatacenterModel,theycapturedbarelyathirdofByteDanceandAlibabaordersin2024_2026YTD.

Thebuildoutisanationwideeffort,andthestate-ownedcarriersarealsopartofit.China’sdatacentermarketwashistoricallytelecom-dominated.The

statecarriersheldthemajorityofthemarketshareinthe2010s,andstillownathirdofnationalcapacitytoday.Thenationalpowergridcompaniesinvest

aggressivelytoo.Theircombinedcapexacceleratedfrom2024,endingthe14thFive-YearPlan24%overtheoriginalblueprint.The15thplan(2026_2030)

layersanother40%ontop,toover$746B(¥5T).

Largelyfreeofpowerconstraints,laborshortages,andpublicprotests,Chinaroutinelydelivers100MWdatacenterfacilitiesinunder12months.Modular

DCsarethestandardplaybook,whichTencentdeployeditsthird-genmodulardesignin2014.WhatisoldnewsinChinaisonlynowbeingadoptedatscaleinAmerica,aswedetailedin

TheWildWildWestofLEGODatacenters

.

ThegrowthdoesnotstopatChina’sborder.OverseasleasingbyChinese

hyperscalersissettodoublefrom2026to2029andapproach~4GWofleasedcapacityinour

SemiAnalysisDatacenterModel

.Thatnumberstillunderstatestheiroffshorecompute,becauseitexcludesthehundredsofthousandsof

GPUstheyrentfromWesternclouds,whichwecoveredatlengthin

How

OracleIsWinningtheAIComputeMarket

.

However,themarketalsofacessomedarkclouds.Vacancyratesarehigh,anddatacenterdeveloperscompeteheavilyonprice.Chipsupplyisalso

constrained,duetoexportrestrictions.Butasexplainedbelow,neitherhasstoppedAIdatacentersfrombeingbuiltandfilledataremarkablespeed.

Inthisreportwecover,inorder:

IntroductiontoChina’sdatacenterindustry:theworld’ssecond-largestmarket,builtretail-first,andwhythathistoryproducedoverbuildand

highvacancyalongsideanAIcapacityshortage.

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Thewestwardbuildout:howthe“EasternData,WesternCompute”policyandhyperscaleAIdemandaremovingtheindustryinland,atconstructionspeedsandunitcoststheWestcannotmatch.

Behindthepaywall:wegotenantbytenantthroughByteDance,Alibaba,Tencent,Baidu,andHuawei,fromtheirAIanddatacenterstrategyto

leasingandself-buildfootprints.

IntroducingtheSemiAnalysisChinaDatacenterModel

Thisreportisapreviewofthe

SemiAnalysisChinaDatacenterModel

.ItistheChinacounterparttoourglobal

SemiAnalysisDatacenterModel

,builttothesamestandard,bottom-upandbuildingbybuilding.

Contactoursalesteamatsales@formoreinformation.Whatyou’llfindinside:

Trackingover1,000facilitiesacross60+operators

Quarterlydeliverycurvesthrough2032foreveryfacility,withconstructionstatusandtimelines

Tenantidentificationperbuilding,supplementedbytenantallocationspercustomer-mixforleadingoperators

Hyperscalerself-buildvsleasedsplitsandper-tenantcapacitypaths

Aleasesigningtrackerandaleasedeliverytracker,ononereconciledbasis

EasternData,WesternCompute(“EDWC”)hubandclusteranalytics,load-growthandpower-drawforecasts

Aninteractivefullmapviewshowingwherethecapacityisconcentrated

Considerittheopeningchapter.Aswithourglobal

DatacenterModel

,wewillkeepaddinglayers(AIcapacity,power,suppliers,supply/demandanalysis)

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witheveryupdate.

Let’sdivein.

China’sdatacenterindustry:builtretail-first,flippedbyAI

OneofAmerica’skeyadvantagesintheAIinfrastructureraceisthatits

datacenterindustrygrewuphyperscale.Multi-hundred-MWcampuseshaveexistedforyears,purpose-builtforahandfulofenormoustenants.China’sindustrywasshapedbytelecomcarriersandthousandsofsmallretail

deployments.Understandingthathistoryexplainswhat’sstrangeaboutthemarkettoday,fromoverallhighvacancycoexistingwithanAIcapacity

shortage,towhythecarriersstillownathirdofeverything.

Thefollowingchartpreviewsthewholestory.Between2010and2022,a

leadingcolocationplayerinChinawatcheditsutilizationrateshrinkfromthemid-70%rangetothemid-50%range.Then,from2023onwards,itssegmentdisclosurerevealsatwo-speedmarket.WholesalebuildingsarefilledfastonAIdemand,backabove70%utilization,whilethelegacyretailrackssitnear60%.

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Source:VNETdisclosure,SemiAnalysis

Era1—Carrierhosting(pre-2015):datacentersas

telecomrealestate

Unliketherestoftheworld,wherehyperscalersandcolosdominate,China’s

datacentermarketwashistoricallytelecom-dominated.Thethreestate

carriers(ChinaMobile,ChinaTelecom,ChinaUnicom)heldacombined60_

70%marketshare,withGDSandVNET,thelargestthirdparties,below5%

each.Thecarriersenjoyedstructuraladvantagesinlicensingandnetworking

andbenefitedfromcaptivedemand.AlargeshareofChinesedatacenter

demandcomesfromgovernment,SOEsandregulatedindustries,which

defaulttostate-ownedsuppliers.

Foritsfirsttwodecades,aChinesedatacenterwasessentiallytelecomreal

estate,featuringlow-densityretailracks(~90%offacilitiesranbelow2kW)

rentedtowebsites,onlinegamingandCDNcustomers.Thiswasoftenofferedasabundledproductwithbandwidth,servedbysmallurbanswitching

centersaroundBeijing,ShanghaiandthePearlRiverDelta.Third-party

operatorsexistedlargelyasresellersofcarrierspaceandbandwidth.The

hyperscalerswerebarelyafactor,asAlibabaCloudwaslaunchedin2009andTencentCloudonlyopenedtothepublicin2013.

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Thiseramatterstodaybecauseitsstockispreciselythecapacitynowsittingvacant.ThelegacyretailracksnolongermatchwhatanH20orAscendserverdemands,andit’simpracticaltoretrofitgivenpartialoccupancyandhigh

cost.Theheadlineutilizationnumberof~50%islargelyamonumenttoEra1(andEra3,aswe’llsee).

Era2—Thecloudlandgrab(2015–2021):growthatanyprice

Theclouderabeganaround2015.Thetwoleadingplayers,Alibabaand

Tencent,concludedthatitwasawinner-take-allmarketandopenedacapexrace.AlibabaCloudrevenuecompoundedata~110%CAGRacross2015_2019,atthecostofabrutalpricewarandEBITAlosses.Itscoreproductswere

markeddownmorethan50%after17consecutivepricecutsduringa12-monthwindow.Tencentrespondedinkind,drivingcombinedhyperscalercapextoa2021peak.

Third-partycolocationplatforms(GDS,VNET,Chindata)scaledalongsidethem.Retaildevelopers,meanwhile,keptbuildingsmallurbansitesontheassumptionthatclouddemandwouldspilloverindefinitely.

Era3—Digestion(2022–2023):themusicstops

Thewildexpansionstoppedabruptlyin2022.Policyheadwinds,macro

slowdown,andsharegainsbystate-ownedcloudspushedAlibabaCloud

growthfrom+50%in2021to+23%in2022,thentoeffectivelyzero.Tencentmanagementframeditasarepositioning“frompursuingrevenuegrowthtohealthygrowth”andsawasimilarslowdown.Tencentcutcapexbudgetsbynearlyhalfinthemiddleof2022.Alibabadidsoin2023.

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Source:Companyfilings,SemiAnalysis

Almostsimultaneously,inFebruary2022,theNationalDevelopmentand

ReformCommission(“NDRC”)launchedEasternData,WesternCompute

guidelinesandnamedtencomputingclusterswithineightnationalhubs.

Theseregions,especiallythewesternones,enjoyfasttrackpermittingand

cheapgreenpower.

Theresultwasanoversupplydespiteaslowdownindelivery.Pricingwashitmost.Power-exclusivemarketrateswerecutinhalffrom~$80/kW/month.OntheAugust2026earningscall,GDSmanagementestimatedanother18monthstofullydigestthepricereset,eventhoughithasbeengoingonforafewyears.

Era4—TheAIsupercycle(2024–):fullsteamahead

DeepSeekandthehyperscalers’ownGenAIambitionswokethemarketupoverthecourseof2024-2025.CombinedBATB

(ByteDance/Alibaba/Tencent/Baidu)capexwentfromroughly$35Bin2024toover$50Bin2025andisonatrajectoryto$100Bfor2026.

Wholesaleordersreturnedatascaleneverseenbefore,andthewesternhubsfinallyfoundtheirtenant.GDSandVNETtogethersignedroughly1.3GWof

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wholesalecapacityin1H26,withlessthan10MWofretailorders.TheAIeraiswholesale.Thelegacyretailstockisnotparticipating.

Butwatchingonlythesetwolistednamesbadlyunderstatestotaldemand,astheyonlycapture~1/3ofByteDanceandAlibabaordersin2024_2026YTDperourChinaDatacenterModel.

Source:

SemiAnalysisChinaDatacenterModel

Torecap,thefour-stagehistoryexplainsChina’sdatacentermarkettoday:(1)aretail-focusedlegacystockaroundTier-1cities,running30-50%utilization,oftenphysicallyunsuitableforAIdensities;(2)awholesaleAI-drivenbuildouthappeningsomewhereelseentirely;and(3)acarriershareinstructural

decline,ashyperscalerself-buildandthird-partywholesaletakeoverthegrowth.

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2026/10/811:50TheChineseAIInfrastructureBoom:IntroducingtheSemiAnalysisChinaDatacenterModel

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EasternData,WesternCompute:thepipelineisheadingwest

TheEDWCpolicydesignateseightnationalcomputinghubs,implementedastenclusters,spanningboththedemandcenters(Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,

YangtzeRiverDelta,GreaterBayArea,Chengdu-Chongqing)andtheresource-richwest(InnerMongolia,Ningxia,Gansu,Guizhou).

Source:NDRC,SemiAnalysis

Thisistheindustry’stop-leveldesignblueprint,andunlikemost

“guidance”documents,itactuallychangedhowtheindustrydevelops.

Thepolicyitselfhasbeencoveredextensively.Whatismissing,andwhatmatters,isthetransmissionmechanism.

InChina,thefirstpermitadatacenterdeveloperappliesforaftersecuring

landisanenergy-consumptionreviewfiledwiththelocalDevelopmentand

ReformCommission.Thatquotaisthebindingcaponhowlargeafacilitycan

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be.Anyprojectconsumingover10,000tonsofcoalequivalent(>10MW)cannotlegallybeginconstructionwithoutpassingthisreview.

Thereviewregimedatesto2010andbecamearationingtoolovertime.WhenEDWCarrivedin2022,thequotasystembecamethemosteffectivemechanismbecausethesameo岱cesthatissuequotasaretheonesimplementingthe

EDWCpolicy,soquotaseffectivelystoppedconstructionfiowingtonon-hublocations.

Guangdongisthecleanestexample.Theprovincestoppedissuingdatacenterenergyquotasin2021-2022andreopenedapplicationsonlyfortheEDWChubregioninShaoguan.Similarquotacontrolgovernstheothereasternmetros.Meanwhile,EDWCregionshandoutenergyquotas,landapprovalsandtax

incentivesgenerously.

Despitethemechanism,forthefirsttwoyears,migrationwasslowbecausethedemandoftheday(cloud,gaming,e-commerce)requiredlowlatencytopopulation,sohyperscalerskeptfightingforscarcequotanearTier-1cities.

Alittle-noticedepisodeillustrateshowthequotasystemplayedoutin

practice.Inmid-2023,Guangdong’sEnergyBureauinspectedTencent’stwoself-builtcampusesinQingyuanandfoundeachrunningatroughly13_14xitsapprovedscale.Theprojectswerelabeled“approvedsmall,builtbig”,andorderedrectificationwithinsixmonths.Thelocalgridcompanywas

instructedtoholdpowersupplytotheapprovedquota.EvenforTencent,incrementalbuildsnowbelongtotheprovince’sdesignatedhubnode.

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Source:GuangdongEnergyBureau

Today,thecampuseskeepoperating,butasourChinaDatacenterModel

shows,Tencent’ssubsequentcapacitywenttoShaoguan.Thereasonisnot

simplyregulatorypressure.

Twootherthingschangedthepicture.

First,telecom-ledfiberinvestmentshavesignificantlyreducedlatency.

Shaoguanagainisthemodelcase.Since2022,thelocalgovernmenthas

invested~$600M(~¥4B)innetworkinfrastructure,building13ultra-high-

speed400Gall-opticalroutescoveringtheGreaterBayArea,achieving1.3msone-waylatencytoGuangzhou,1.66mstoShenzhen,andunder3mstoHongKong.AdirectShenzhen-Guangzhou-Shaoguanhollow-corefibercorridorhasbeenplannedtocutlatencyafurther~30%from2027onwards.Atthose

numbers,aShaoguanrackisfunctionallyaShenzhenrackforallbutthemostlatency-criticalworkloads.

Second,AIdemanddidtherest.Trainingworkloadsdon’tcareaboutlatency,buttheycareaboutpowerprices.

InnerMongoliaisthebestexamplehere.TheregionhasChina’slargest

renewablefieetand,critically,westernInnerMongoliaisservedbythe

Mengxigrid,China’sonlyprovincialgridoutsideStateGridandSouthernGrid,withitsownmultilateraltradingmechanismandindependentpricing.

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Asaresult,InnerMongoliahasemergedasChina’sJohor,thedefault

destinationforhyperscaleAIcapacity,withgenerousquotaallocations,landmeasuredinsquarekilometers,and,mostimportantly,powerpricesat

roughlyhalftheTier-1citylevel.

TheJohorparallelrunsdeeperthanlandandpower.Oneconomics,Chineserentsarefarlower,butsoisthecapex,whileJohorrentsarehigher,butsoisthecosttobuild.Ourdatashowsthatthetwomarkets'yield-on-costranges

overlap,withthebestInnerMongoliacampusesunderwritingtothereturnofJohor'sinternationaldevelopers.However,thetrendsdiverge.InnerMongoliaconstructioncostskeepfallingastheprefabapproachanddomestic

substitutioncompound,whileJohordevelopersfacecapexinfiationand

overrunriskinasupplychainrunninghot.ChineseoperatorsbuildinginJohorenjoygeographicalarbitrageleveragingtheChinesesupplychainandearnhigheryields.

ZoomoutfromInnerMongolia,though,andthetenclusterstellverydifferentstories.Itiseasiesttoseewhenthemapisweightedbywhatisactuallylive

andwhatiscommitted,ratherthanbywhatthepolicydesignated,asthemapbelowshows.

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Source:

SemiAnalysisChinaDatacenterModel

ArecurringmediatakeholdsthatEDWCisaboondoggleofemptywestern

shells.Thesimplestrebuttalistolookatwherethehyperscalersputtheirownmoney.Asourtrackingshows,ByteDancecurrentlyoperatesthreeself-buildclusters:DatonginShanxi(itsearliest),WuhuinAnhui(anEDWCcluster,

servingeast-Chinainference)andatwin-siteInnerMongoliaprogram

(HoringerandUlanqab),withtwoNingxiaentitiesregisteredinZhongwei(anotherEDWCregion)inJuly2026pointingtoafourth.

OutsideofInnerMongolia,developmentacrosstheclustersissharply

divergent,butmuchofthatdivergenceisbydesign.Gui’anwaspositioned

fromthestartasastoragehub,ascolddatadoesn’tmindthemountains.ThemostfamousanchortenantisApple’siCloudChinadatacenter,operated

withGuizhou-Cloud.LessreportedisthatHuaweiandTencentbothhaveself-buildclustersinthisregion.

ChengduandChongqingaredifferentstories.TheyarepitchedasnationalcomputehubsbutlosttheAI-demandcontesttoInnerMongoliaonpowerpriceandgridfiexibility.EDWCsucceededinconcentratingthebuildoutinsidethemap,andthemarketthenpickedthewinnerswithinit.

Shanxiistheopposite.ItisthelargestdatacenterregionoutsidetheEDWC

hubsystementirely(thereddiamondonthemapabove),butattractedcloseto2GWcommitmentfromByteDance,Baidu,andJDacrossself-buildsitesand

colocationleases.Thereasonsareabundantcheappower(ShanxiisChina’scoalprovince),proximitytoBeijing,andfirstmoveradvantage.HyperscalerswenttherebeforeEDWCexistedandkeptbuildingout,proofthatthequotaregimechannelsthebuildout,butelectronsandgeographystillmakethesiteselection.

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2026/10/811:50TheChineseAIInfrastructureBoom:IntroducingtheSemiAnalysisChinaDatacenterModel

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Speedandcost:adifferentsport

TheUSbuildoutispower-gatedwithinterconnectionqueues,transformer

leadtimes,behind-the-meterworkarounds,whichwehavecoveredatlength

here

.China’sischip-gated:generationisabundant,state-ownedutilities

treatdatacenterloadasadevelopmentwin,permittingisapolicyfunnel

ratherthanabottleneck,andconstructionlaborisplentiful.Withnophysicalfrictiononthefacilityside,thebuildcycleisdrivenpurelybyinternet

platformdemand.

Onspeed,thestandarddeliverytimefora100MWfacilityhascompressedfrom~18monthsintheclouderato~12monthsintheAIera,withstate-of-the-artprojectsfinishingfasterstill.

Forreference,ourUSmodulardeepdive

TheWildWildWestofLEGO

Datacenters

foundthebest-casefull-modularbuildoutintheUSstilltakes12_18monthsofconstruction,sittingbehind12_13monthsofpermittingthat

cannotoverlap.ForChina,thepermittingperiodbeforeconstructionistypically3_6months,andfasterinEDWCregions.

Severalstructuralfactorscontributetotheoverallfasterspeed.

First,speculativeshellsaheadoforders.BecausehyperscalersnowrunT+6-

monthdeliveryrequirementsintheirtenders,colocationdeveloperspre-buildcivilworksattheirownrisk,makingthetenantcompetitioneffectivelyaraceamonghalf-finishedshells.WhenGDSsigneda152MWAImega-orderinearly2025,thecustomerrequireddeliverywithinsixmonthsandgotit.

Second,buildinggreenfieldsitesinwesternEDWChubschangedthe

constructionmethod.AwayfromTier-1landconstraints,developersare

movingfromconventionalmulti-storyconcretetolow-rise,long-spansteel

halls.Thesteelismadeinafactorywhilefoundationsaredugonsite,then

truckedinandliftedintoplacebycrane.Concreteisusedonlyintheground,sothereisnowaitingforittohardenbeforethenextfioorgoesup.VNET’sUlanqabfootageshowsahallgofrombarefoundationstoafinishedbuildingwithinonesummer-to-winterseason.

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Source:VNETvideos,SemiAnalysis

Tencent’sT-Blocktakesthesamelogictoitsextreme.Theentiredatacenterarrivesasfactory-builtmodules,withthe“building”shrinkingtoaleveledsiteandasimplesteelshell,sometimesnobuildingatall.

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Source:TencentVideo,SemiAnalysis

Third,prefabricationturnsaserialscheduleintoaparallelone.Thebulkof

MEPworkmovesoff-siteintofactories,soelectricalandmechanicalfit-outno

longerwaitsforthebuilding.TheheadlineexampleisAlibaba’sCUBE5.0

《100-daydatacenter”,comprising30daysoffactoryproductionandsite

prep,50daysofon-siteinstallation,and20daysofcommissioning,measuredfromafinishedshelltothedayserversarrive.ThisroughlyhalvesM&Eandcommissioningstagecomparedwithmarketstandard6-month,andbrings

ground-breaktocommissioningdowntoroughly7_9months.

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Everyfactorabovepointsinthesamedirection,whichismorefactory,less

site.Followthatlogictoitsendpoint,andyouwouldexpectTencent-stylefull-modularcontainercampusestobethenationalstandardbynow.They

aren’t,fortwoveryChinesereasons.

First,thelabormathisdifferent.Modularization’sbiggestpayoffintheWestisdodgingscarce,expensiveskilledtrades.Chinesesitelaborisaffordableandabundant,soatraditionalsteel-and-prefabbuildalreadyhitsaggressive

schedules.Themarginalspeedgainfromgoingfull-containerissmall.

Second,thefinancingdynamicsplayarole.Chinesecolocationdevelopers

pledgetheirdatacenterstobanksasloancollateral.Aproperbuildingwitha20-yeardesignlifeappraiseswell,butayardofcontainersappraisespoorlyandcarrieslowerresidualvalue.Whenyourbusinessmodelis“borrow

again