2026年全球电商手册

Goldman

SachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

2026GlobaleCommerceHandbook

AssessingtheIndustryinanIncreasinglyAgenticWorld

n

an2026GlobaleCommerceHandbook

FindingOpportunitiesinaMoreMatureEnvironment

WeintroducethefourtheditionoftheGoldmanSachsGlobaleCommerceHandbookwhereweanalyzekeytrendsanddebatesimpactingeCommercearoundtheworldtohelpinvestorsnavigatethesector.

KeyTakeaways

$4.5tnGlobaleCommerceOpportunity:+6%CAGR,ModestOnlinePenetrationGains

·ExpectglobaleCommercesalestogrowto$6.4tnin2031,from$4.9tnin2026

·China/UStogrowat+4%/+5%CAGRandaccountfor+50%ofglobalgrowth

·LesspenetratedregionssuchasIndiaandLatAmtogrowat18%/13%CAGR

MatureeCommplayershaveevolvedintoconsumerecosystems

·Revenueisincreasinglydrivenbyhigh-marginancillaryrevenuestreams

·Thesebusinessesdeepenengagementacrosstheconsumerandmerchantjourney

Weremainintheearlyinningsofagenticcommerce

·Expecttoseeagenticshoppingevolveon3PLLMsandon-platformagentictools

·Consumeradoptionandtrafficremainlowbuthighintent

·Overtimewebelieveimprovementswillaccelerateadoptiononbothinternalandexternalshoppingsurfaces

GlobalInvestmentResearch3

anGlobaleCommerceStockPicks

FindingOpportunitiesinaMoreMatureEnvironment

View:Maintainpreferenceforscale,expectfurthersharemarketshareconsolidation

GlobaleCommerceStockPicks

Region

Company

Ticker

Rating

12mPT

US

amazon

AMZN

Buy

$375

China

JD.COM

JD

Buy

$43

Europe

zalando

ZAL

Buy

E44

LatAm

mdo

MELI

Buy

$2,300

Korea

coupang

CPNG

Buy

$29

India

eternal

ETEA

Buy

Rs345

Source:Companydata,FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

GlobalInvestmentResearch

GlobalInvestmentResearch5

GoldmanSachs

eCommerceisa$4.5tn+GlobalOpportunity

ExpectGlobaleCommerceSalestoreach$4.9tnin2026

eCommerceSalesandPenetrationofAddressableRetailSalesbyRegion(2026)

Canada

S61bn15%

US

$1.3tn24%

LatAm$226bn

16%

Global

$4.9tn

24%

Europe$948bn

19%

Globalex-China

$2.9tn

20%

India

$91bn

10%

Legend

eCommerceSales

OnlinePenetrationRate

(%AddressableRetailSales)

China$1.9tn

36%

Korea$91bn

37%

Japan$127bn

15%

Australasia

$62bn

20%

ChinaUSEuropeLatAmJapanKoreaIndia

AddressableRetailSales(eCommerceSales

Source:Companydata,Euromonitor,USCensusBureau,ChinaNationalBureauofStatistics,Euromonitor,IBGE,MCC-ENET,KOSIS,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

anGlobaleCommerceSalestoGrow+6%CAGR

ExpectGlobaleCommercetoReach$6.4tnin2031

GlobaleCommerceSalestoReach$6.4tnin2031

$tn

$7.0tn

$6.0tn

$5.0tn

$3.7tn$3.2tn

$4.0tn

$3.0tn

$2.5tn

21%

15%

22tn

$2.0tn

$1.0tn

2018

2019

2020

2021

$0.0tn

$5.2tn$4.9tn

$4.5tn

$4.2tn

$3.9tn$3.7tn

24%

23%

22%

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026E

2027E

GlobaleCommerce一□一Penetration(%)一□-%YoY

$6.4tn

$6.1tn$5.8tn

$5.5tn

25%

26%27%

2028E

2029E

2030E

2031E

□

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%

Source:Companydata,Euromonitor,USCensusBureau,ChinaNationalBureauofStatistics,Euromonitor,IBGE,MCC-ENET,KOSIS,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Note:AddressableRetailsalesdefinedasTotalretailsalesexcludingAuto,andGasGlobalInvestmentResearch6

anExpectIndia/LatAmtoGrowtheFastest

HighestCAGRFromLeastPenetratedRegions

eCommercePenetrationVariesWidelybyRegion

%AddressableRetailSales,2026

36%37%

24%

19%

16%

10%

ChinaKoreaUS

Global

EuropeLatAmIndia

ExpecttheLeastPenetratedRegionstoGrowtheFastest

2026-2031CAGR

18%

13%

6%

IndiaLatAmEuropeUSChinaKorea

Source:Companydata,Euromonitor,USCensusBureau,ChinaNationalBureauofStatistics,Euromonitor,IBGE,MCC-ENET,KOSIS,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Note:AddressableRetailsalesdefinedasTotalretailsalesexcludingAuto,andGasGlobalInvestmentResearch

Source:Companydata,Euromonitor,USCensusBureau,ChinaNationalBureauofStatistics,Euromonitor,IBGE,MCC-ENET,KOSIS,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

GlobalInvestmentResearch8

aoanExpectChina/UStoDrive+50%ofGlobalGrowth

TwoCountriesContinuetoAccountforMajorityofDollarsShiftingOnline

by

eCommerceGrowth

CAGR%2026-2031

$1,800,000

$1,600,000

$1,400,000

$1,200,000

$1,000,000

$800,000

$600,000

$400,000

$200,000

$0

Region

Global

28%

China

eCommerce$Growth

25%

US

(2026-2031)

21%

Europe

12%

LatAm

8%

India

%ofGlobal

5%

OtherGrowth

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

1%

0%Korea

Source:Companydata,Euromonitor,USCensusBureau,ChinaNationalBureauofStatistics,Euromonitor,IBGE,MCC-ENET,KOSIS,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

GlobalInvestmentResearch9

aoanConcentratedIndustry,ExpectMoreConsolidation

ScaledPlatformsContinuetoGainMarketShare

View:MarketsharegainsfromA(AMZN),Shopify(SHOP),MercadoLibre(MELI),Coupang(CPNG)andPDDHoldings(PDD),JD.com(JD),Kuaishou(1024.HK)andDouyininChina

■Globalex-China:Expecttop5pure-playeCommerceplatformstoreach54%combinedsharein2028,upfrom47%in2025,andlessthan40%in2018

■China:Expect5largestChineseeCommerceplatformstomaintain>90%combinedsharethrough2028

Globalex-ChinaMarketShare

%

2019

2028E

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

2020202120222023202420252026E2027E

■AMZN■SHOPEBAY

ChinaMarketShare

%

100%

90%

80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10% 0%

2016201720182019202020212022202320242025E2026E2027E

aoanCommerce1.0toCommerce3.0

EvolutionoftheeCommerceBusinessModel

■FromCommerce1.0toCommerce3.0:Theindustryisincreasinglydrivenbyhigh-marginancillaryrevenuestreamsincludingadvertising,subscriptions,logistics,etc.

■Thesebusinessesdeepenengagementacrosstheconsumerandmerchantjourney,diversifyrevenue,andexpandmargins

PhasesofeCommerceEvolution

Commerce3.0:

EcosystemMonetization

·~2023-Present

●RMN

·Logistics

·SellerServices

·Subscriptions

Commerce2.0:

MarketplaceTransition

●~2015-2023

·3PInventory

·InventoryEfficiency

·Mobileapp

●~1995-2015

·1PInventory

·Lowermargin

Commerce1.0:

PureRetail

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

GlobalInvestmentResearch10

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

GlobalInvestmentResearch11

anAgenticShopping

OpportunityforFutureGrowth

■Alagentsresearch,compareandtransactontheconsumer'sbehalf-viaexternalLLMsandon-platformassistants

■Adoption:Early(&small)buthighintent

AdoptioncurveofAgenticShopping

Autoship

·Convenientprogrammedshopping

●Example:Subscribe&Save

ResearchAssistant

●Scanswebsitestocreaterecommendations

●Example:"bestwintercoatsunder$200"

Multi-ProductBasket

●Resolvestrade-offsand

presentsacoheretsolution

·Example:"createagrocery

basketfora30persondinner"

Execution

●Authorizetheagenttopurchaseonyourbehalf

●Example:"ifanyofthe

suggestedwintercoatsgoonsalefor+80%off,buyone"

Multi-StepOngoingMotitoring

·Handlingmulti-stepsolutionsandoperationalexecution

●Example:"keepmyhome

stockedwithschoolsuppliesatthebestavailableprice"

GoldmanSachs

RetailMedia

AHighMargin,GrowingRevenueStream

GlobalRetailMedia

$bn,YoY

40%

35%

$180

37%

35%

$160

34%

$140

30%

$120

25%

$100

20%

$80

15%

$60

11%

10%

$40

5%

0%

$20

$o

20232024

2020

2025

2019

2018

20212022

GlobalRetailMediaAdSpend

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

GlobalInvestmentResearch12

GlobalInvestmentResearch13

GoldmanSachs

HowtoValueeCommerceCompanies

MultiplesareBelowHistoricalAverages->WarrantedonSlowerGrowth

Multiples:BelowHistoricalLevelsGrowth-AdjustedMultiples:InlinetoAboveHistoricalLevels

0.18x0.16x0.14x0.12x0.10x0.08x0.06x0.04x0.02x0.00x

GlobaleCommerce(incl.NewListings)PublicPre-2016(LikeforLike)

EV/GMV-GlobaleCommerceEV/GMV/Growth-GlobaleCommerce

EVIGMV

12/1/2015

8/1/216

12/1/2016

4/1/2017

8/1/2017

12/1/2017

4/1/2018

8/1/2018

12/1/2018

4/1/2019

8/1/2019

12/1/2019

4/1/2020

1

4/1/2021

8/1/2021

12/1/2021

4/1/2022

8/1/2022

12/1/222

4/1/223

8/1/2023

12/1/2023

4/1/2024

8/1/2024

12/1/2024

4/1/2025

4/1/2026

12/1/2015

4/1/2016

8/1/2016

12/1/2016

4/1/2017

8/1/2017

12/1/2017

4/1/2018

8/1/2018

12/1/2018

4/1/2019

8/1/2019

12/1/2019

41/2020

81/2020

12/1/2020

4/1/2021

8/1/2021

12/1/2021

4/1/2022

8/1/2022

12/1/2022

41/2023

8/1/2023

12/1/2023

4/1/2024

8/1/2024

12/1/2024

4/1/2025

8/1/2025

12/1/2025

4/1/2026

2.0x1.8x1.6x1.4x

1.2x

0.8x0.6x

0.4x0.2x

0.0x

GlobaleCommerce(incl.NewListings)PublicPre-2016(LikeforLike)

EVIAdj.EBITDA-GlobaleCommerceEVIAdj.EBITDA/Growth-GlobaleCommerce

EVIAdj.EBITDA

12/1/2015

4/1/2016

8/1/2016

12/L/2016

4/1/2017

8/1/2017

12/1/2017

4/1/2018

8/1/2018

12/1/2018

4/1/2019

12/1/2019

4/1/2020

8/1/2020

12/1/2020

4/1/2021

8/1/2021

12/1/2021

4/1/2022

8/1/2022

12/1/2022

4/1/2023

8/1/2023

12/1/2023

4/1/2024

8/1/2024

12/L/2024

4/1/2025

8/1/2025

4/1/2026

35.0x30.0x25.0x20.0x15.0x10.0x5.0x0.0x

PublicPre-2016(LikeforLike)一GlobaleCommerce(incl.NewListings)

12/1/2015

4/1/2016

8/1/2016

12/1/2016

4/1/2017

8/1/2017

12/1/2017

4/1/2018

12/1/2018

4/1/2019

4L/2020

12/1/2020

/1/2021

8/1/2021

12/1/2021

4/1/2022

8/1/2022

12/1/2022

4/1/2023

8/1/2023

12/1/2023

41/2024

8/1/2024

12/1/2024

4/1/2025

8/1/2025

12/1/2025

4/1/2026

1.40x1.20×1.00x0.80x0.60x0.40x0.20x0.00x

PublicPre-2016(LikeforLike)GlobaleCommerce(incl.NewListings)

Source:FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

14

KeyTakeawaysbyRegion

US-China-Europe-LatAm-Korea

GoldmanSachs

US

ExpecteCommerceGrowthof+5%CAGR2026-2031;OnlinePenetrationto26%in2031;PreferScale;StockPickAMZN

ExpectUSeCommerceSales+5%CAGRto$1.7tnin2031;($tn)

203

25%

21%

16%

15%

$3

$1.4—

$0.9$0.6

0%

201920202021

30%

25%

20%

10%

5%

$7

$6

$5

$4

$2

$1

$0

2027E

25%

2025

22%

24%

26%

$1.6

$1.2

$1.1

eCommerceAdressableSales一□-OnlinePenetration

ExpectUSeCommercetoContinuetoConsolidate;(%share)

100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%

2019202120222023

■AMZN(GSe)■SHOP(GSe)■Temu(PDD;GSe)■EBAY■ETSY■W■CHWY

Source:Companydata,USCensus,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

USeCommercesalesreached$1.2tnin2025fora24%penetration

rateofaddressableretailsales(excl.auto,gas,restaurant)of$5.2tn.WeforecastUSeCommercesalesgrowing+5%CAGR(2026-2031)tonear$1.7tnin2031,fora26%penetrationrate.

Marketshareisconsolidatingaroundscaledleaders;AMZNleadsat41%sharein2025->forecastnearly44%in2028.

Restofsectorremainspressuredwithpoorconsumersentiment,

macro/tariffuncertainty,theongoingshiftfromgoodstoservices.andincreasedfocusonessentials(vs.discretionary).

USStockPick:A(AMZN)

ExpectEssentialCategoriestoRemaintheFastestGrowing;(2026-2031CAGR%)

Appareland

Footwear

8%

7%

6%

3%

2%

MoreEssential

MoreDiscretionary5%

5%

Foodand

Beverage

HomeandAppliances

Other

Categories

eCommerce

PetCareProducts

Consumer

Electronics

HealthandBeauty

Source:Euromonitor.USCensus.GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

GlobalInvestmentResearch15

GlobalInvestmentResearch16

Goldman

Sachs

China

GloballylargesteCommercemarket,facilitatedbyhighdigitalpaymentpenetrationandaffordablelogisticsservice;StockPickJD

OurestimatesforChinaonlineGMV

NBSonlinegoodsretailsales(yoy)25%

21%

20%19%

15%

10%

8%

6%

6%

2024

5%

2%

2022

0%

2023

andparcelvolumegrowth

Parcelvolume(yoy)

14%

5%

5%

4%

2027E

4%

2025

2026E

In2026,weexpectChinaeCommercetogrowby+4%yoyonthefadingimpactofnationalsubsidies/strictertaxcompliancerequirements.

Normalizationoffooddeliverysubsidies.Whilefooddelivery

competitionisnowstabilizing,competitioninnon-foodcategories(e.g.grocery,supermarket,freshfood)remainsintense.

Agenticcommerce.WenoteDoubaoandQwencontinuetoexploreproductdiscoveryandseamlesscheck-outcapabilities.TencenthasthepotentialtocapturemoresharewithitsWeixinAlagent.

ChinaStockPick:JD.com(JD)

-Recoveringtop-lineandprofitinto2Hwithmultiplere-ratingpotential

-ExpandingglobalretailerfootprintwithJoybuy'sEuroperollout

ChinamarketshareofselecteCommerceplatformsAgenticcommerceinChina'sleadingconsumerAlassistantswithdifferentiatedmoats

■Taobao■Tmall■JD=PDD■VPSDouyin=KuaishouWeChatVideoAcoount

2%

13%

25%

17%

60%

18%

16%

20%

16%

0%

2022

19%

23%

16%

17%

24%

21%

19%

18%

100%

22%

21%

2027E

13%

19%

22%

2026E

20%

14%

0%

3%

15%

17%

ByteDanceDoubao

AlibabaQwen

Productsupply

DouyinMallTaobao+Tmall,~4bnlistings

Agenticexecution

Almakesrecommendation,usercompletescartadding/ordering/payment

Alcompletestheorder,useronlyconfirms+

pays

Paymentinfrastructure

DouyinPay,allowingpaymentswithinappAlipay,allowingpaymentswithinapp

Potentialmonitization

Commission+channelservicefee+adsrevenue

RecommendationsbasedoninterestFull-stackecosystemsupportfromshelf-

Moats/differentiation

signalsandUGCSFVreviews,atpotentiallycommerceproductbase+Alipaypayment,

higherdiscovery-to-purchaseconversionstrongeratexecuting/closed-looptransaction

Source:NBS,Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

GoldmanSachs

Europe

Europeanonlinechannelcontinuestooutperformin2026;StockPickZAL

EuropeAddressableeCommerceSales&Penetration;(Smn,%

penetration)

AddessableRetailSales(exAuto,Gas,Restaurants)

——OnlinePenetration

S7,000,000

S6,000,000

20%

$5,000,000

$4,000,000

$3,000,000

10%

$2,000,000

$1,000,000

15%

25%

5%

2930E

Source:Euromonitor,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

EuropeeCommercePenetrationbyCategory;(%penetration)

—AddressableeCommercepenetration

—Food+eCommercepenetration40%

36%36%

31%

28%

30%

26%

25%

20%

16%16%

15%

10%

6%6%

2027E2028E2029E2030E2031

35%

19%

16%

Source:Euromonitor,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Europeaccountsforc.19%ofglobaleCommerceretailsalesasof2025(excl.auto,gas,restaurant)atC.$0.89tn,representing18%penetrationofEuropeanaddressableretailsalesof~$4.9tn.

WeexpectEuropeaneCommercesalesgrowthofc.+6%CAGRby2031Eaccountingfor22%penetrationrateofaddressableretailsales.

TheEuropeanonlinechannelcontinuestomarkedlyoutperformin-storein2026underpinnedbyrisingonlinepenetrationandincreasedmarketing

investmentinonlinepostamulti-yearperiodofnormalisationaftercovid.Leadingfashionandlifestyle,scaleplayerZalando(ZAL)remainsthekeybeneficiaryoftheongoingdivergencebetweenin-storeandonlineretail

salesinEurope,withstrongonlinegrowthunderpinningtoplinemomentumandincreasedmarketingspendbybrands,alongsidefastergrowthin3PandB2B,providingmargintailwinds.

Onlinecontinuestooutperformin-storeacrossmanyEuropeancountries

10.0%

一-OnlineretailsalesgrowthyoyaverageacrosscoreEuropeanmarkets

8.0%

6.0%

4.0%

2.0%

0.0%

Source:Bundesbank,Istat,INE,SCB,StatisticsPoland,CBS,Eurostat,Statbel,StatisticsFinland,Eurostat

GlobalInvestmentResearch17

GlobalInvestmentResearch18

aoanLatAm

For2026-28E,weexpectLatAmeCommercetogrowat+18%paonavg,drivinganannualavgonlineshiftofc.+150bppa;StockPickMELI

LatAmeCommercepenetrationandyoychange(bps)

20.0%

18.0%

16.0%

14.0%

12.0%

10.0%

8.0%

6.0%

4.0%

+50bp

2.0%

0.0%

201820192020202120222023202420252026E2027E2028E

+400bp+350bp+300bp+250bp+200bp+150bp+100bp+50bp+0bp

11.0%210.6%

+119bp

17.6%16.1%

4.5%+.p

13.0%11.8%

+79bp

14.5%

9.4%

Ecommerceas%oftotalretail

Source:Companydata,Euromonitor,MCC-ENET,IBGE,Neotrust,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Brazil,ArgentinaandMexicoaretheleadingcountriesintermsof

eCommercepenetrationwithinLatAm(%,2026E)

25.0%

19.0%

20.0%

17.3%

Latam

16.

16.1%

15.0%

10.0%

5.0%

0.0%

ArgentinaMexico

Brazil

ChilePeru

countries

■In2026,weexpectLatAmeCommercetogrowby+28%yoyinUSD(vs.

+17%in2025),drivingtheonlinesharetoc.16%oftotalretailupfrom

C.15%in2025(andc.5%in2019).

CompetitionremainsinthespotlightinBrazil.WeestimatethatMELIwillreachamarketshareof47%in2026E.Shopeeestablisheditselfasthesecondlargestplayerinthemarket,withanestimated19%ofshare

in2026E.

TikTokShopgraduallybuildingscale.LaunchedinMexicoinFeb

2025andBrazilinMay,weestimatethatTikTokShopcurrentlyaccountsforalow-single-digitmarketshareintheLatinAmericanmarket.

LatamStockPick:MercadoLibreInc.(MELI)

WeexpectMELItocontinuetoleadbyaconsiderablemargin;(%)

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026E

—MagazineLuizaGrupoCasasBahiaAmazon

*Totalecommercemarketbasedontota/GMVreportedbyEbit,MCC-ENET&MELI

Source:Companydata,Euromonitor,MCC-ENET,IBGE,Neotrust,GoldmanSachsGlobalSource:Companydata,E-bit,IBGE,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

InvestmentResearch

anKorea

RecoveryinconsumptionbutECcapturingdisproportionateshareofincrementaldemand;StockPickCPNG

eCommerceproductTAMoutpacingoverallretailproductTAMgrowth

(%YoY)

18%

16%

14%

12%

10%

8%

4%

2%

209E

2028E

2031E

0%

2025

2027E

2029E

2030E

RetailProductTAM

Source:KOS/S,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

CompositeBusinessSentimentIndexhasrisensteadilyfromitsearly-2025troughtonearthetopofits2024-2026range

Korea'seCommerceretailsalesaccountedforc.2%ofglobaleCommerceretailsalesasof2025andrepresentedc.35%ofdomesticretailproductsales,

WeexpecteCommerceproductTAMgrowthof+5%CAGRover26E-31E,continuingtooutpacetheoverallretailproductTAMgrowthof+2%CAGR.

Therecoveryindiscretionaryconsumptionshouldsupportthe

absolutelevelofretailspending,whileconvenience,deliveryspeedandbroaderselectionshouldalloweCommerceplatformsto

captureadisproportionateshareofincrementaldemand.

KoreaStockPick:Coupang(CPNG)

Coupang'sDomesticProductCommerceGMVgrowthwillremain

substantiallyhigherthanoverallretailgrowth

100

95

90

85

80

Jan-24

Mar-26

Source:ECOS,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

(GMVYoYgrowth)45%

40%35%30%25%20%15%10%

5%

20212022

Source:KOSIS,Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

GlobalInvestmentResearch19

GlobalInvestmentResearch

anIndia

WeexpectIndia'seCommerceGMVtogrow18%CY26-28ECAGRwithQC

growingat2xofeCommgrowth;StockpickZomato(ETEA.BO)

WeestimateUS$215bninquickcommerceTAMinCY25

IndiaquickcommerceTAMbridge(inUS$bn;CY25)

c.$900bn

Othernon-grocery

$174bn

$108bn

c.$415bn

$615bn

$277bn

$180bn

IndiaretailOfwhichurbanretailQuickcommerceTAMCurrentquick

intop150citiesincommerceindustry

Indiasize

■QCaddressablenon-grocery

■Grocery

c.$18-20bn

c.$215bn

S53bn

India'seCommerceGMVisestimated,atc.US$100bnasofCY26E,

havinggrownataboutac.20%CAGRoverthelastcoupleofyears,withcurrentonlinepenetrationofc.10%.

CertainsegmentswithineCommercearegrowingmateriallyfasterthantheunderlyingmarket;Quickcommerce(afunctionoffasterfulfillmenttimes),valuecommerce(improvingassortmentatbetterpricepoints)andverticalcategoriessuchasbeauty&personalcare(solvingforeducationandtrust)OurtoppickisZomato(ETEA.BO);India'slargestquickcommerce

platform(c.40%share)andlargestfooddeliveryplatform(c.58%share).

WeforecastanelevatedgrowthprofileforBlinkitata45%FY26-29ENOVCAGR,afunctionofgrowthintheunderlyingmarketandBlinkit'smateriallysuperioreconomicsvspeers,whichallowittoreinvestforgrowth

Source:Euromonitor,NSSO,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Quickcomm,valuecommandverticalecommisgrowing1.5-2xvshorizontalecommerce;andweexpectQCs'sharetoincreasetoc.34%ofIndiaeCommbyFY30Evs.15-20%today

IndiaeCommercemarketsplitbyquickcommerceand

eCommerceformats

GMVmarketshareofkeyecommerceplatformsinIndia

other

YoYgrowthofoverallIndia'soveralle-commercevsafew

sub-categories

■Blinkit(qComm)

117%■Meesho*(valuecomm)

■Nykaa(BPC)

IndiaEcomm70%

39%

31/80%

25%23%

18%

FY25FY26FY27EFY28E

39%

29%

19%

113%

28%

19%

21%

GMVmarketsharemovinginfavourofQCandvaluecommerce(Meesho)

66%

69%

73%

77%

85%

91%

95%

34%

31%

27%

15%

FY26

9%

5%

FY27E

FY28E

■Quickcommerce■Otherecommerce

100%

90%

80%

}3%

70%

60%

31%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

CY19CY20

}11%QCapps

Others

■RelianceRetail

■Swiggy

■Zepto

■Zomato

■Nykaa

■Meesho

■Amazon

■FlipkartCY25

14%

%

23%23%

15%15%

31%30%

16%

CY21

CY23

19%

CY22

Source:Euromonitor,DataGoldmanSachsGlobalResearchSource:Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalResearch,VisibleAlphaConsensusData,Euromonitor

compiledbyInvestmentInvestment

21

DisclosureAppendix

September16,2026

aoanDisclosureAppendix

RegAC

We,EricSheridan,RonaldKeung,CFA,IrmaSgarz,EricCha,RichardEdwards,ManishAdukia,CFA,RomanReshetnev,herebycertifythatalloftheviewsexpressedinthisreportaccuratelyreflectourpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectcompanyorcompaniesanditsortheirsecurities.Wealsocertifythatnopartofourcompensationwas,isorwillbe,directlyorindirectly,relatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisreport.

Unlessotherwisestated,theindividualslistedonthecoverpageofthisreportareanalystsinGoldmanSachs'GlobalnvestmentResearchdivision.

GSFactorProfile

TheGoldmanSachsFactorProfileprovidesinvestmentcontextforastockbycomparingkeyattributestothemarket(i.e.ouruniverseofratedstocks)anditssectorpeers.Thefourkeyattributesdepictedare:Growth,FinancialReturns,Multiple(e.g.valuation)andIntegrated(acompositeofGrowth,FinancialReturnsandMultiple).Growth,FinancialReturnsandMultiplearecalculatedbyusingnormalizedranksforspecificmetricsforeachstock.The

normalizedranksforthemetricsarethenaveragedandconvertedintopercentilesfortherelevantattribute.Theprecisecalculationofeachmetricmayvarydependingonthefiscalyear,industryandregion,butthestandardapproachisasfollows:

Growthisbasedonastock'sforward-lookingsalesgrowth,EBITDAgrowthandEPSgrowth(forfinancialstocks,onlyEPSandsalesgrowth),withahigherpercentileindicatingahighergrowthcompany.FinancialReturnsisbasedonastock'sforward-lookingROE,ROCEandCROCI(forfinancialstocks,onlyROE),withahigherpercentileindicatingacompanywithhigherfinancialreturns.Multipleisbasedonastock'sforward-lookingP/E,P/B,

price/dividend(P/D),EV/EBITDA,EV/FCFandEV/DebtAdjustedCashFlow(DACF)(forfinancialstocs,onlyP/E,P/BandP/D),withahigherpercentileindicatingstocktradingatahighermuliple.TheIntegratedpercentileiscalculatedastheaverageoftheGrowthpercentile,FinancialReturnspercentileand(100%-Multiplepercentile).

FinancialReturnsandMultipleusetheGoldmanSachsanalystforecastsatthefiscalyear-endatleastthreequartersinthefuture.Growthusesinputsforthefiscalyearatleastsevenquartersinthefuturecomparedwiththe

yearatleastthreequartersinthefuture(onaper-sharebasisforallmetrics).

ForamoredetaileddescriptionofhowwecalculatetheGSFactorProfile,pleasecontactyourGSrepresentative.

M&ARank

Acrossourglobalcoverage,weexaminestocksusinganM&Aframework,consideringbothqualitativefactorsandquantitativefactors(whichmayvaryacrosssectorsandregions)toincorporatethepotentialthatcertaincompaniescouldbeacquired.WethenassignaM&Arankasameansofscoringcompaniesunderourratedcoveragefrom1to3,with1representinghigh(30%-50%)probabilityofthecompanybecominganacquisitiontarget,2representingmedium(15%-30%)probabilityand3representinglow(0%-15%)pro