麦肯锡 -美国家庭服务领域的价值投资：机遇与稳健性交汇之处 Value plays in US home services Where opportunity meets reliability

January2026

Mcsey

&company

PrivateCapitalPractice

ValueplaysinUShome

services:Whereopportunitymeetsreliability

SolidmarketfundamentalsandsignificantvaluecreationopportunitiesmaketheUShomeservicesmarkethighlyattractivetoinvestors.

byBrendanFitzgerald,BrianO’Neill,andMherPanossian

withFelipeMeirelles

Thehomeservicesmarket—whichincludesa

widevarietyofservices,suchasroofing,safety

andsecurity,andpetservices—hasemergedasafocussectorforinvestorsandentrepreneursalike.Growthisexpectedtoriseinthecomingyears,

drivenbylong-term,embeddedtrends,suchastherisingnumberofexistinghomesandtheincreasedoutsourcingofhomeservices.Certainsubsectorswithinthehomeservicesmarkethavealsoshownadegreeofrecessionresistance,makingthemmoreattractiveforlong-terminvestments.

Weareoftenaskedwhetherachievingoutsizevaluecreationinthehomeservicesmarketispossible—

andperourresearch,theanswerisyes.However,inamoderate-growthmarketwithrisinginvestment

intensity,companiesmustpullmultiplevaluecreationleversandmovequicklytocapturethefullopportunity.

Companiesinthespacepresentsubstantialvalue

creationopportunitiesinboththeshortandmediumterm.Wehavefoundthattheaveragehomeservicesoperatorcanachievemorethan500basispointsin

marginimprovement,ortheequivalentthroughgrowth,bytransformingitsoperationsthroughtargeted

interventionsaimedatbothincreasingrevenuesand

decreasingcosts.Inaddition,manysubsectorsdisplayconsiderablefragmentation,offeringsubstantial

opportunitiesforconsolidationandeconomiesofscale.Abroadsuiteoffavorablemarkettrends—including

digitalization,theriseofe-commerceandomnichannel,andthecreationofmultibrandplatforms—isalso

openingupnewgrowthopportunities.

Whilewould-beinvestorswillneedtonavigatepotentialissuesconcerninglabor,pricing,andregulation,valuecreationcanbesignificant.

Thosethatactquicklywillbeabletoseizetheopportunitiesthatofferthegreatestpotential.

UnderstandingtheUShomeservicesmarket

USspendingonhomeservicesisapproximately

$700billionandhasdemonstratedrelativelystablegrowthoverthepastdecade(Exhibit1).Thehome

Exhibit1

Acceleratingsince2022,growthintheUShomeservicesmarketcouldtrackorslightlyexceedGDPgrowth.

UShomeservicesmarketsizeandgrowth,$billion

800

600

400

200

0

0%p.a.

+13%p.a.

+5%p.a.1

201520202024

1Perannum.

Source:Financialdisclosuredocuments;Moody’s;PitchBook;McKinseyanalysis

McKinsey&Company

Thehomeservicesmarket:Acompellingvaluecreationopportunity2

Thehomeservicesmarket:Acompellingvaluecreationopportunity3

servicesspaceexperiencedsolidgrowthinthe

prepandemicyears,withaCAGRofaround5percent.Thefirstyearsofthepandemicsawanuptickto

13percentCAGR,butthemarketexperienceda

slowdownbetween2022and2024andremained

mostlyflatthroughouttheperiod.Growthisexpectedtopickbackuptoaround2percentannuallyover

thenextfewyears,meaninggrowthcouldtrackorslightlyexceedGDPgrowth.1

Strongmarketfundamentals,despitepotentialchallenges

TheUShomeservicesmarkethasexhibited

consistentgrowthinbothmarketsizeanddeal

activity,aswellasatrackrecordofrecessionresilienceinsomesubsectors.

Marketgrowth

Thehomeservicesindustrycomprisesanumberof

subsectorsofvaryingsize,whichareoftencategorizedintofourgroupsbasedonthecriticalityandfrequencyofthoseservices.Whilethesizeandgrowthrate

ofmarketsubsectorsvarysignificantly,growthis

relativelystrongacrossthemarket(Exhibit2).Factorsdrivingthisgrowthincludeincreasingdemandfor

homeimprovementandmaintenanceservices,ariseinthenumberofexistinghomes,andthegrowingtrend

ofoutsourcinghomeservices.2

Exhibit2

Homeservicessubsectorscanbecategorizedbycriticalityandfrequencyofservice;optionalandfrequentservicesaregrowingfastest.

Homeservicecriticalityvsfrequency,relativeUSmarketsizeandgrowthrate

LOW

OptionalandrareOptionalandfrequent

Frequencyofhomeservice

LOW(shareofrecurringservices)HIGH

HIGH

Criticalityofhomeservice

CriticalandrareCriticalandfrequentRelativegrowthrate

LowMediumHigh

Bubblesize=

relativemarketsize

Pestcontrol

SolarSwimmingHomecleaning

poolsandspas

Petservices

Landscapingand

lawncare

HVAC

Plumbing

andbathroomrenovations

Electrical

Renovations

Roofing

Garagedoors

Moving

Safetyandsecurity

Junkremoval

Painting

Source:Expertinterviews;financialdisclosuredocuments;McKinseyanalysis

McKinsey&Company

1McKinseyanalysisusingfranchisedisclosuredocuments,PitchBook,andMoody’s.

2McKinseyanalysisoffranchisedisclosuredocuments,theUSBureauofLaborStatistics,andtheUSCensusBureau.

Thehomeservicesmarket:Acompellingvaluecreationopportunity4

Growthhasgenerallybeenfastestintheoptionalandfrequentcategory,includingforservicessuchaslandscapingandlawncare,homecleaning,andpetservices.

Inaddition,dealactivityhasgrownsignificantly

fasterinhomeservicesthaninotherconsumer

spaces.Thesector’sshareofdealsincreasedfrom

2percentin2017to6percentin2022—aCAGRof

27percent.3

Recessionresilience

Certainsubsectorswithinthehomeservices

markethaveshownadegreeofrecession

resilience(Exhibit3),makingthemmoreattractiveforlong-terminvestments.Servicesthatare

nondiscretionaryoremergency-related,such

Exhibit3

Severalhomeservicessubsectorshaveshownremarkableresilienceandevenresistancetotheimpactsofeconomicdownturns.

Recessionimpact,averageacross5recessions,1nominalspend

AveragechangeinGDP,%

Averagedurationofdecline,years

GDP2

_3

2

Junkremoval

10

HVACservices

6

Safetyandsecurity

5

N/A(noaverage

decline)

Pestcontrol

5

Electrical

0

Petservices

_0

2

Roofing

_1

4

Homecleaning

_2

1

Landscapingandlawncare

_3

5

Houserepairandrenovations

_5

2

Painting

_7

3

Plumbingandbathroomrenovations

_9

3

Moving_13

3

1Measuredusingsales,consumerexpenditure,andgrossproductoriginating;considersthefollowingrecessionaryperiods:1981–82,1991–92,2001,2007–09,and2019–20(COVID-19pandemic).

2GDPismeasuredinrealtermsforaccuraterecessionimpact.

Source:JointCenterforHousingStudies;USBureauofEconomicAnalysis;McKinseyGlobalInstituteanalysis

McKinsey&Company

3McKinseyanalysisusingfinancialdisclosuredocuments,PitchBook,September2024.

Thehomeservicesmarket:Acompellingvaluecreationopportunity5

asHVACrepairsandelectrical,tendtomaintain

steadydemandevenduringeconomicdownturns.

4

Thisresilienceaddstothesector’sappeal,

providingastablerevenuestreamforinvestors.

Potentialchallenges

Whiletherearesubstantialopportunitiesinthe

homeservicesmarket,would-beinvestorsshouldbeawareofafewpotentialchallengesandidentifystrategiestonavigatethemsuccessfully.

Skilled-laborshortages.Individualswithspecializedskills(suchasHVACandplumbing)areinhigh

demandandshortsupply.

5

However,inlightof

(agentic)AI,theserolesbecomemoreattractive

aspeopleconsiderreskilling.

6

Trainingand

developmentprogramscanhelpbuildaskilled

workforceandensurehigh-qualityservicedelivery.

Pricesensitivity.Becauseconsumerpricesensitivityvariesacrosssubsectors,suchasforoptionalor

infrequentservices,carefullymanagingpricingstrategiesiskeytoremainingcompetitive.

Regulatoryandcomplianceissues.Licensing,

safetystandards,andproperdocumentation

requirementscanvarybyregionandservicetype.

Knowingwhichregulationsapplyiscriticaltoensurecomplianceandavoidpotentiallegalissues.

Strongvaluecreationopportunities

Somegrowthopportunitiesapplyacross

subsectors,whileotherswillhavemoreimpactinspecificsubsectors.

7

Measurestoboostrevenueandreducecosts

Coupledwiththepotentialforrollupstrategiesandplatformcreationinthehomeservicessector,theseopportunitiesmakethespaceparticularlyexciting.

Inourexperience,potentialforoutsizevalue

creationisdrivenbyseveralkeylevers;commercialstrategies,operationalimprovements,andexcellentcustomerservicearekeytoboostingrevenue.

—Commercialstrategiescanmeaningfullyboostrevenuethroughstrongerrevenuegrowth

managementsalespractices.Smarter,more

dynamicpricingupdatesbasedonelasticityandmarketconditionscanpropelsignificantmarginexpansion.Implementingsalesbestpractices—suchasaligningincentives,providingeffectivetraining,andequippingtheworkforcewiththe

righttools—canboostproductivityandrevenuegrowth.Inaddition,buildingamarketingenginethatdrivesperformanceacrossthefunnelandstrengthensbrandpositioningcangenerate

sustainedlong-termvalue.

—Effectivescheduling,togetherwithenhanceddigitalandanalytics,canincreasebookingsby10to20percent.

—Customersatisfactionandanorientationtoward

high-qualityservicecanimprovecustomerretentionandreferralsby10to20percentandincrease

on-siteupsellingopportunitiesby20to40percent.

Oneleadingnationalhomeservicescompany,for

example,implementeda360-degreecustomer

viewpoweredbyamachinelearningmodelthat

leveragesmorethan50featurestoidentifychurn

indicatorsandgenerateactionableinsights.These

insightsenabledcustomercareandretentionteamstodoublecall-centerproductivity,identify65percentofchurnersearlyfortargetedpreventiveactions,anddeliveranEBITDAupliftofaround15percent.

Inanotherexample,acompany’scross-functionalagilepodforrapidA/Btestingindigitalmarketingande-commercedesignedamobile-firstpurchaseflowandappliedacontinuoustest-and-learn

approach,ultimatelyachievinga75percentincreaseinwebsiteconversionrate.

Onthecostside,ourexperiencesuggests

thatoptimizingoperationalandgeneraland

administrative(G&A)leverscanresultin

considerablesavings.Theseleversarealso

importantforbothownedandoperatedbusinesses

4McKinseyanalysisusingdatafromtheUSBureauofEconomicAnalysisandtheJointCenterforHousingStudies,andMcKinseyGlobalInstituteanalysis.

5McKinseyanalysisofexpertinterviewsandcompanyearningscalls.

6AlexisKrivkovichandAnuMadgavkar,“HumanskillswillmattermorethaneverintheageofAI,”McKinseyGlobalInstitute,January6,2026.

7Theimpactofallopportunitiesdiscussedbelowassumesoptimalimplementationandexecution.

Thehomeservicesmarket:Acompellingvaluecreationopportunity6

andfranchisedsystems,giventherolebranch-leveleconomicsplayinacceleratingscaling.

—Operationallevers,suchasstandardized

servicelevelsandprocurementoptimization,

canmeaningfullyreducecosts.Implementingstandardservicetimesandrollingouttrainingprogramscanreducethetimetoserve

customersby10to15percent,forexample,

whileconsolidatingsuppliersandrenegotiatingcontractscansave5to10percentonsupply

purchases.

—G&Aleversalsoplayasignificantroleincost

reduction.Thisincludesmakingstrategicmake-versus-buydecisions,rightsizingthecostbase,andoptimizingfinanceandcontrollingpractices.Outsourcingsoftwaredevelopmentcanreducethosecostsby10to15percent,forexample,

whilerightsizingexecutivecompensationand

reevaluatingprofessionalfeescansave15to20percentofthatspend.Additionally,overhaulingfinancialdisclosuredocumentsandnormalizingP&Lstatementscancreatemoreclarityand

structureforfranchisees,allowingforbetter

coachingandsupportfromthecorporatelevel.

Onecompany,forexample,realized$50millioninin-yearsavingsand$150millioninrun-ratesavingsbyapplyinganaccelerated,two-prongedsourcingapproach.Thefirstprong,aninitialdiagnostic,

identifiedimmediateopportunitiesacrossdemandreduction,vendornegotiations,andpayment

terms.Thesecondprong,implementation,lasted

12weeksandincludeddirectnegotiationswith

thetop10to15vendors,thelaunchofmorethan

tenRFPsinmultiplecategories,improvementsto

spend-managementprocesses,andprocurementcapabilitiesenhancements.Asaresultofthis

approach,anadditional$200millioninincrementalrun-ratesavingswasidentifiedasavailablefor

captureinthenearterm.

Consolidationopportunities

Manysubsectorsofthehomeservicesmarket

arehighlyfragmented,withnumeroussmalland

localserviceproviders(Exhibit4).8Forexample,

independentsandlocalplayershaveacombined

marketshareofmorethan80percentforbothcriticalandrareservicesandoptionalandrareservices.

Thisfragmentationpresentsuntappedopportunitiesforrollupsandsynergiesthroughconsolidation.

Exhibit4

ManysubsectorsintheUShomeservicesmarketarehighlyfragmented.

MarketshareofUShomeservicessectorbycriticality,frequency,andsubsector,%

NationalfranchisorCompany-ownednationalbrandLocalplayersTrueindependents

19

16

15

51

11

7

7

76

10

14

6

69

6

12

21

61

Criticalfrequent

Criticalandrare

Optionalandfrequent

Optionalandrare

Note:Figuresmaynotsumto100%,becauseofrounding.

Source:McKinseyanalysisofexpertinterviewsandsecondaryresearch

McKinsey&Company

8McKinseyanalysisofexpertinterviewsandsecondaryresearch.

Thehomeservicesmarket:Acompellingvaluecreationopportunity7

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Inparticular,investorscanrealizevaluethrough

economiesofscaleinpurchasing,labor,technology,andcentralizedservices.Andinsegmentswhere

theaveragecompanyisasmallbusiness,playerswithstrongfinancialbackingandmanagement

capabilitiescanoutcompetetheirlocalpeersandcaptureabove-marketorganicgrowth.

Forexample,theplumbingrepairsmarketmay

offersignificantopportunitiesforconsolidation—themarkethasnumeroussmallandlocalservice

providers,and70percentofmarketshareisheldbyindependentcompanies.Byconsolidating,

playerscouldrealizesubstantialeconomies

ofscale.9Themarketisalsoexpectedtogrow

significantly,drivenbyincreasingdemandfor

smartplumbingtechnologiesandsustainable

productsandbytheneedforregularmaintenanceandrepairs.10

Newgrowthopportunities

Trendsinthehomeservicesmarket—includingdigitalization,theriseofe-commerce,andthe

growthofmultibrandplatforms—arereducing

customerfrictionsandcreatingnewvaluepools.

Digitalizationisenablingimprovedbusiness

operations.Thehomeservicesmarketis

undergoingadigitaltransformation,with

companiesincreasinglyadoptingdigitaltools

andtechnologiestoenhanceservicedelivery

andcustomerexperience.Digitalsimulations,

AI-enabledtroubleshooting,andscheduling

orinventoryoptimizationarejustsomeofthe

innovationsshowingpotentialtodriveefficiencyandproductivityinthesector.Lookingahead,

thevaluepropositionoflargerdigitally-enabledcompaniescouldbecomeevenstronger,suchasthroughAIvisualizationtoolstoincrease

salesandAItakeofftoolstooptimizepurchasing

efficiency.Incomparison,smallerpeersthat

cannotimplementandtrainonsuchtoolscouldlagbehind.

E-commerceandomnichannelstrategiesboostleadgenerationandconversio