摩根士丹利-人形机器人前景：让机器人投入工作-Humanoid Horizons：Putting the Robots to Work-20261006

MorganstanleyRESEARCHFouNDAtioN

October6,202610:14PMGMT

Robotics|NorthAmericaMoRGANSTANLEy&Co.LLC

AdamJonas,CFA

HumanoidHorizons:Puttingthe

MoRGANSTANLEyAsiALimiTED+

RobotstoWorkShengZhong

Afteryearsofprovingtheycanbuildrobots,humanoidMoRGANSTANLEy&Co.LLC

WilliamTackett,CFA

companiesnowfaceanewquestion:whowillhiretherobots?

Earlyemployerswantsuccessratesandoperatinghours,andwe

thinkthefirmsthatwinthefirstjobswillgatherthedatathatMoRGANSTANLEyAsiALimiTED+

CarlosChai

drivesthenextmodelimprovements.

privatecompany

MoRGANSTANLEy&Co.LLC

DevinRoser

PrivateCompaniesHighlighted:Figure,D-Robotics,FourierIntelligence,

BoosterRobotics,WorldLabs,BostonDynamics,AgilityRobotics,Chestnut

Robotics,DynaRobotics,Apptronik

Weprovideourlatestthoughtsandkeyhighlightsacrosstherobotics

ecosystem:

•WhoWillHiretheRobots?Formuchofthelasttwoyears,thehumanoid

debatehascenteredonsupply,withinvestorsfocusedonwhowillbuildthe

robotsandsupplythe"brain,"andonhowquicklycostscancomedown.This

month,manufacturersandgovernmentsgaveclearerevidenceofwhere

humanoidswillfirstbedeployed.Onthecommercialside,BMWisputting

humanoidsintobatteryandcomponentproductionandHyundaiisbuilding

anAtlastrainingenvironmentaroundlogisticsandpartssequencing.Toyota

iscontemplatingamuchbroaderautomationprogramthatwouldrequireup

to400,000robots,whileSouthKoreaandSingaporearecreatingdedicated

industrialandpublic-safetysettingsforrobotstooperatein.Wethinkthe

earlyadopterstendtooperatelargephysicalfootprintswithrepetitiveor

hazardouswork,andtheytypicallyhaveexistingautomationbudgetsalong

withthepatiencetotoleratealearningperiodwhilethetechnology

improves.Thenextphaseofthehumanoidmarketmaybedefinedbywho

iswillingtoprovidethefirstjobsandwhichenvironmentsallow

humanoidstoiteratefastest,consistentwiththeshifttowardscenario-

specificcommercialdeploymentwehighlightedpreviously.MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswith

companiescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,

•TheBarIsMovingTowardReliability.Agrowingnumberofdemonstrationsinvestorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictof

interestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanley

nowshowhumanoidswalkingthroughfactoriesandcompletingusefultasks,Research.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanley

thoughthemoreinformativedevelopmentsthismonthcamewithnumbersResearchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestment

attached.Xiaomireporteda98%successrateonadefinedfactorytaskafterdecision.

Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,

severalmonthsofdeployment,andFigurereported56%whole-tasksuccessrefertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthis

acrossunseenhomes.Thetwoexperimentsdifferwidelyinsettingandreport.

+=Analystsemployedbynon-U.S.affiliatesarenotregistered

difficulty,yetbothreportthekindofmetricthatdetermineswhetherawithFINRA,maynotbeassociatedpersonsofthemember

robotearnsaplaceonashift.EconomicviabilitywilldependfirstonsuccessandmaynotbesubjecttoFINRArestrictionson

communicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearances

rateandcycletime,andthenonhowoftenarobotneedsinterventionandandtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.

MorganstanleyRESEARCHFouNDAtioN

howconsistentlyitperformsacrossenvironments.Wecontinuetothink

productiveoperatinghoursandrealizedoutputwillbecomethemain

measuresofprogressforthesector.

•PublicMarketsAreStartingtoQuantifyHumanoidEconomics.Agility'sS-

4providesaclearerviewofrevenueandoperatinglosses,alongwithcash

consumptionandthemetricsattachedtoitsreportedorderbook.Unitree's

public-marketvaluationisfocusingthediscussiononASPsandcompetitive

intensity,andonwhethercommercialdemandwillprovedurable.Production

targetsandpartnershipannouncementshavehistoricallybeeneasiertofind

inthissectorthanfinancialresults,sotheaddeddisclosuregivesinvestors

considerablymoretoworkwith.Asmorerobotcompaniesapproachpublic

markets,investorsshouldgetbettervisibilityintohowmuchdemandcomes

fromresearchanddemonstrationsversusrecurringindustrialuse,andfilings

shouldalsoshowwhatgrossmarginslooklikeatscaleandhowmuchcapital

isneededtogetthere.Customersarebeginningtodemandproofofrobot

performance,andpublicmarketsmayholdtheindustry'sn

claimstoasimilarstandard.Forfulldetails,seeMorganStanley'sinitiation

report:YushuTechnologyCo.,Ltd.:BuildingaFull-StackIntelligentRobotics

Platform

•RoboticsPolicyIsBothIndustrialPolicyandNationalSecurityPolicy.

Governmentsareincreasinglyinfluencingthemarketfrombothdirections.

SouthKoreaandSingaporearefundingdeploymentenvironmentsand

assigningrobotstospecificindustrialandpublic-serviceapplications,while

theproposedGUARDActcouldrestrictChinesehumanoidandquadruped

platformsfromtheU.S.market.Chinahasgonefurtheronthedemandside

bydirectingprovincesandstate-ownedenterprisestoidentifyrealoperating

sitesforhumanoidtraininganddeployment.Asaresult,governmentsmay

subsidizeadoptionandcreateearlydemandwhilealsoshapingwhere

trainingdataisgeneratedanddecidingwhichhardwareisallowedto

compete.ForphysicalAI,geographylookstomatterearlierinthe

ncurvethanitdoesforotherformsofAI.

•ForacopyofourGlobalRobotModelwithforecastsacrossthefullrange

ofembodiedAI(notjusthumanoids),pleasereachouttoyourMorgan

Stanleyrepresentative.

Humanoid100update:Theequal-weightedHumanoid100isup45%sinceits

inceptionon2/6/2025(adjustingforadditionsanddeletions),outperformingthe

S&P500,MSCIEurope,andMSCIChina,butunderperformingMSCIKoreaandMSCI

Taiwan.TopperformersYTDincludeIntel,ArmHoldings,LGElectronics,Samsung

Electronics,andTeradyne.

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Exhibit1:2026GlobalVentureFundingforHumanoidRobotsisOnTrackto

MorethanDoublevs.2025

$10.0B$9.4B

$9.0B

$8.0B

$7.0B

$6.0B

$4.9B

$5.0B

$4.0B

$3.0B

$2.0B$1.8B

$885.5M

$1.0B$658.7M$601.2M

$0M

202120222023202420252026YTD

GlobalVCFunding

Note:Asof10/4/2026.Includesfundingforcompaniesclassifiedunder'HumanoidRobotics'inPitchBook.

Source:PitchBook,MorganStanleyResearch

Exhibit2:ChinaHumanoidsFinancingActivities

202420252026

70

61

60

4951

504646

4143

40

32

282829

3025262525

2019

161716

2013

9

76676

1053345

-

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

Note:Includesallnotablefundingdisclosedbasedonourknowledgeandresearch.However,theremaystillbesomenotcaptured.We

updatednumberoftransactioninpreviousmonthswithtransactionannouncedafterourpublishedpreviousHumanoidsHorizon.

Source:Companyannouncement,GGII,MorganStanleyResearch.

Exhibit3:Equal-WeightedHumanoid100Performancesince2/6/2025(Date

ListwasEstablished)

520

470

420

370

320

270

220

170

120

70

Humanoid100S&P500MSCIChinaMSCITaiwanMSCIKoreaMSCIEurope

Note:Dataasof10/5/2026close.Pricereturnsonly,doesnotaccountfordividendreinvestmentortransactioncosts.

Source:FactSet,MorganStanleyResearch

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Exhibit4:Equal-weightedChinaHumanoidValueChainPerf

ChinaHumanoidValueChain-Equal-weightedPerformance

BodyIntegratorBrainMSCIChina

220

200

180

160

140

120

100

80

Source:FactSet,MorganStanleyResearchNote:DataasofSeptember30,2026close.Resultsshownrepresentreturnexcluding

dividends,brokeragecommissionsandtransactioncosts.Thesefiguresarenotaudited.Pastperformanceisnoguaranteeoffuture

results.Forimportantdisclosuresregardingcompaniesthatarethesubjectofthisscreen,pleaseseetheMorganStanleyResearch

DisclosureWebsiteat/res

Exhibit5:TheHumanoid100-MorganStanley'sListofGlobalHumanoid

Enablers

Note:Publiccompaniesonly.Notallinclusive.

Source:MorganStanleyResearch

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Exhibit6:Chinahumanoidvaluechain(includingpubliccompaniesinourstock

list)

Brain

Structure

ActuatorMotorReducerBearing

Part

Semi

Dexteroushands

ScrewSensorVision/LiDAR

Battery

Integrator

unlTReeUBecHTencen宁腾讯

`

Source:MorganStanleyResearch

Inthisnoteyouwillfind:

•RecentRoboticsUpdates&Developments

•GlobalPolicySupportOverview

•Humanoid100Performance

•ChinaHumanoidsValueChainPerformance

•TrackingHumanoidProgress

•GlobalHumanoidTAM/AdoptionEstimates

Thecontentaddressingprivatecompaniesisbeingprovidedforinformational

purposesonlyanddoesnotconstituteasolicitationorimplyfutureresearch

coverageifthecompanygoespublic.Contentisbasedonunauditedinformation.No

investmentrecommendationisprovidedasthereislimitedpublicinformation

availableforprivatecompanies.Investorsshouldconducttheirownduediligenceand

beawarethatadditionalordifferentinformationmaybeprovidedbythecompany.

Thevaluationinformationprovidedhereisincludedforillustrativepurposesonly.The

informationisbasedonpubliclyavailableinformation(fundingrounds,company

disclosure,third-partyvendors,etc.)andwasnotproducedorendorsedbyMorgan

StanleyResearch.

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FurtherReading

SectorBluePaper/Foundation/Insight

•Robotics:Actuators:RobotMuscleNeedsAmericanHustle(13Sep2026)

•China'sEmergingFrontiers:China'sNextIndustrialRevolution(9Sep2026)

•RewiringtheHome:ARoadmapofAppliancesinAIDiffusion(8Jul2026)

•HumanoidsandRobots–TheNextChapterinChina’sDominanceinGlobal

Manufacturing(4May2026)

•WhenFactory=Robot(26Mar2026)

•Who'sGonnaMaketheBots?AddingContractManufacturerstotheHumanoid

100(26Mar2026)

•WorldModels:AI'sJourneyfromDigitaltoPhysical(22Mar2026)

•Humanoids:A$5TrillionGlobalMarket(29Apr2025)

•InvestmentImplicationsofEmbodiedAI(26Jun2024)

SingleStockFoundation/Insight

•YushuTechnologyCo.,Ltd.:BuildingaFull-StackIntelligentRoboticsPlatform(29

Sep2026)

•TeslaInc:BeyondtheWheel–MappingTesla’sJourneyintoPhysicalAI(7Dec

2025)

•Apple,Inc.:AppleRobotics—What'sCookingInCupertino'sKitchen?(6Nov2025)

•HyundaiMotor:Hyundai'sRoboticsAmbition(17Aug2025)

•SamsungElectronics:Humanoids–FromDigitaltoPhysicalAI(14Sep2025)

TheRobotAlmanac

•Robotics:TheRobotAlmanac(Vol.1):AIGetsPhysical;CambrianExplosionofBots

(7Dec2025)

•Robotics:TheRobotAlmanac(Vol.2):HowtoTrainYourRobot;Geopolitics;Rare

Earths;Sagan’sProphecy(14Dec2025)

•Robotics:TheRobotAlmanac(Vol.3):Humanoids&IndustrialRobots(16Dec

2025)

•Robotics:TheRobotAlmanac(Vol.4):Drones&AirMobility(17Dec2025)

•Robotics:TheRobotAlmanac(Vol.5):Space&Defense(18Dec2025)

•Robotics:TheRobotAlmanac(Vol.6):AutonomousVehicles(21Dec2025)

•Robotics:TheRobotAlmanac(Vol.7):BrainComputerInterfaces&OtherForm

Factors(22Dec2025)

•Robotics:TheRobotAlmanac(Vol.8):BigTech'sPhysicalAIJourney(28Dec2025)

Trip/MeetingsTakeaways

•Humanoids:ChinaBESTConference2026Feedback(20Sep2026)

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•WRC2026Takeaways:ProductivityMatters(23Aug2026)

•WAIC2026Takeaways:MorePhysicalAI(20Jul2026)

•ChinaIndustrials:HumanoidSupplyChainTripTakeaways:TheEmergingGap(28

Jan2026)

•TheRowdyRobot:TheRobotsTakeOverLasVegas(8Jan2026)

•Humanoids:WRC2025Takeaways:EmbracingtheFuture(10Aug2025)

HumanoidHorizons

•Humanoids:HumanoidHorizons:Moravec'sParadox(1Sep2026)

•HumanoidHorizons:DoRobotsHaveaPRProblem?(28Jul2026)

•HumanoidHorizons:HumanoidsComingtoYourBloombergScreen(May29)

•HumanoidHorizons:MoneyMeetsMachines(7May2026)

•HumanoidHorizons:CanUSandChinaCollaborateonRobots(26Feb2026)

•Humanoids:HumanoidHorizons:GainingMomentumGlobally(22Jan2026)

•Robotics:HumanoidHorizons:WhattoWatchfor2026(19Dec2025)

•Humanoids:HumanoidHorizons:Overhypedyet(1Dec2025)

TheHumanoidSignal

•2026Outlook–Humanoids:n(21Jan2026)

•Humanoids:TheTideisRising,Lifting2026Forecast(23Jun2026)

•TheHumanoidSignal–BroadVerification(5Feb2026)

•TheHumanoidSignal-HowWilltheRobot"Brain"Evolve?(26Feb2026)

•TheHumanoidSignal-RobotFingersCrossed(6Mar2026)

•TheHumanoidSignal-GoingGlobal,CapturingEarlyGround(14May2026)

•TheHumanoidSignal:ProgressCheck,WRCPreview(17Aug2026)

AlphaWiseSurvey

•Humanoids:ChinaHumanoidsSurvey:HighWillingnesstoAdoptMeetsPremature

Products(2Dec2025)

•Humanoids:ChinaSurvey(2):Whatworkarehumanoidsexpectedtodo?(14Dec

2025)

•Humanoids:HumanoidRobotConsumerandInternSurveys:ChinaEnthusiasm,US

Divided(4Aug2025)

RelevantPrivateCompanyProfiles

•Robotics:AgileRobots:DasBot(17Mar2026)

•EmbodiedAI:AIRoboticsDisruptors:SkildAI(23May2025)

•EmbodiedAI:HumanoidDisruptors:1XTechnologies(7Apr2025)

•EmbodiedAI:HumanoidDisruptors:Apptronik(24Mar2025)

•EmbodiedAI:HumanoidDisruptors:Unitree-HumanoidsStartingat$16K(28Jan

2025)

•EmbodiedAI:AIRoboticsDisruptors:PhysicalIntelligence(19Dec2024)

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RecentRoboticsUpdates&Developments

Financing&M&A:

•D-Roboticsclosesa$400mnSeriesCtoexpanditsroboticscomputeand

softwareplatform.ThecompanysaidthefinancingwillsupportitsSunrisechip

portfolioandanintegratedsoftwareplatformspanningrobotdevelopmentfrom

establishedcategoriesthroughgeneral-purposehumanoids.D-Roboticsreports

cumulativeSunrisechipshipmentsabove8mnunitsandsaysitsS600embodied-

AIprocessorhasbeenadoptedbymorethan20customersincludingUBTECH,

Fourier,andBoosterRobotics,withseveralprogramsalreadyinmassproduction.

The8mnshipmentfigurecoversthebroaderroboticsandedge-AImarket,notjust

humanoidrobots,showinghowcapitalisformingaroundthecomputelayer

underneaththerobotmakers.

•Unitree'spost-IPOvaluationhascomeintofocusfollowingitspubliclisting,

withthecompanyestablishingaprimaryvaluationbenchmarkforChina's

humanoidandembodied-AIsector.OurChinaIndustrialsteaminitiatedcoverage

onYushuTechnologyCo.,Ltd.("Unitree")withanEqual-weightratinganda

Rmb500pricetarget.TheinitiationnotesthatwhileUnitree'shardware

locomotionandlow-costmanufacturingcapabilitiesarewellrecognized,themoat

arounditsengineering,rapiditerationspeed,anddisciplinedcostcontrolremains

.Asthebroaderdebatetransitionstowardrobotproductivity,

intelligence,andcommercialdeployment,theteamviewscurrentvaluationlevels

asfairinitsbasecase,derivedfroma10-yearDCFmodel(implying42x2027EP/

S),balancingsubstantiallong-termhumanoidTAMgrowthagainstdeclining

blendedASPs,risingindustrialcompetition,andthenecessitytobuildproprietary

intelligence.Forfulldetails,seeMorganStanley'sinitiationreport:Yushu

TechnologyCo.,Ltd.:BuildingaFull-StackIntelligentRoboticsPlatform

•AMDagreestoacquireWorldLabs,thespatial-intelligencelabledbyFei-FeiLi,

inanall-stockdealvaluedatabout$8.2bnthatisexpectedtoclosebyend-

2026,subjecttoregulatoryapprovals.WorldLabsbuildsmodelsthatgenerate,

reconstructandsimulateinteract