麦肯锡 -消费品行业：通过业务组合重组重振增长 Consumer packaged goods Reigniting growth via portfolio realignment

February2026

McKinsey

&Company

Consumer

packagedgoods

Reignitinggrowthviaportfolio

realignment

ChangingconsumertastesandsentimentarespurringconsumerpackagedgoodscompaniestouseM&Atorefocusefforts,redirectcapital,andreignitegrowth.

M&Ainconsumerpackagedgoods

Shareofprivateequityactivity,%oftotal

Totaldealvalue,

Totaldealvolume,

byregion,number

■Asia-Pacific

■EMEA¹

■Americas

byregion,$billion160-

20202025202020252020

Shareofactivityin2025,

bysubsector,%of

10

17

total

Other

Durables

Personalcare

Beverages

29

56

21

Averagedealsize,

bysubsector,$billion3.0-

2.5-Other

Durables

1.5-

0.5

valuevolume202020242025

Consumerpackagedgoods

Totaldealvalue,bysize,$billion

160-

120-

80-

40

0

2020

10

2025

Shareofdealvalue,

bysize,%oftotal

44

45

64

41

30

15

36

34

56

55

59

49

36

37

20202025

Cross-regional

Cross-borderwithinregion

Domestic

Shareofcorporatecross-borderdeals,bytype,%oftotal

31

20

50

34

8

58

28

31

15

6

12

82

30

18

14

56

54

54

20202025

Top10globaldeals,bydealvalue,$billion

AcquirerCountryTargetCountry

Kimberly-Clark

US

Kenvue

US

49.7

KeurigDrPepper

US

JDEPeet's

Netherlands

24.0

AdventIntemational

US

ReckittBenckiser

UK

4.8

L'Oreal

France

Kering'sOrangeSquare

UK

4.7

PAlPartnersandADIA

France/UAE

FroneriIntemational

UK

4.2

Coca-ColaHBC

Switzerland

CCBA

SouthAfrica

3.8

Heineken

Netherlands

FIFCObusinesses²

CostaRica

3.2

Ferrero

Luxembourg

WKKellogg

US

3.1

Investindustrial

UK

TreeHouseFoods

US

2.9

GroupeLactalis

France

DairyIngredients

FoodServiceBUof

and

Fonterra

Australia2.5

Note:Fguresmaynotsumtototals,becauseofrounding.Unlessotherwisenoted,dealvaluesreportedareenterprisevalues.Dataincludedealsvalued>$25milion,includingspin-andsplit-oftransactions.Dataalsoincdudeprivate-placementtransactions>$100milion.Cross-borderanalysisincludescorporatedealsonly.Dealsforwhichtheacquirer'sheadquarterscouldn'tbeclassifiedaretreatedasdomestic.

Europe,MiddleEast,andAfrica.

²BeverageandproximityretailoperationsandequityinterestinHeinekenPanama

Source:PitchBook,acessedJanuary2026;S&PCapitalIQ,S&PGlobalMarketIntelligence,accessedJanuary2026;Mckinseyanalysis

McKinsey&Company

Consumerpackagedgoods3

Consumerpackagedgoods4

Theindustryoverview

Afterayearcharacterizedbyweakvolumes,shiftingconsumerpreferences,andcontinued

marginpressure,consumer-packaged-goods(CPG)companiesentered2025facingthe

challengeofreturningtosustainablegrowth.Manybrandshavebeenseeingdemandsofteninlegacycategoriesatthesametimethatconsumershavebeentradingdown,reassessingbrandloyalty,andchanginghowandwheretheyspend.Takentogether,theseconstraintshavemadevolumegrowthhardertosustain,establishingvolumepressureasthedefiningforceshaping

today'sCPGM&Aenvironment.

Theindustry'sM&Aactivityoverthepast12monthshasprimarilybeenaboutrealigning

portfolios.ThetotalnumberofM&Atransactions¹wasdown,fallingto140transactionsin2025,from180in2024.Butdealvaluegrewbyover50percenttoapproximately$152billionin2025comparedwithapproximately$99billionin2024.2Thisoverallincreaseindealvaluewasdrivenbyahandfulofmegadealsinthebeverageandpersonal-caresubsectors.

ThisshifttowardlargerandmoreselectivetransactionswasmostpronouncedinEurope.TheEuropeanCPGsectorsawasmalluptickindealcount,whiledealvaluetherenearlytripledtoapproximately$56billionin2025,from$20billionin2024.Relativelylargetransactionsdrovethechange,withsixdealsabove$2billionoccurringintheregionin2025,comparedwithonlyonesuchdealin2024.Thispatternreflectsbuyers'renewedappetiteforcategoryleadersandassetswithstrongcompetitivemoatsinEurope.

Globally,CPGcompanieshavebeenusingacquisitionsanddivestiturestorefocusoncorecategories,exitbusinesseswithrelativelyweakergrowthprospects,andfreeupcapitaltoreinvestwheredemandisclearer.AndseveralCPGcompaniesaroundtheworldhavebeenpursuingscaletoimproveoperatingefficiencyandprotectmargins.

Theseshiftsareunfoldingamidamixofmodesttailwindsandpersistentheadwinds.Interestratesarebeginningtostabilize,butconsumerconfidenceremainsuneven,tariffscontinuetoaddpressure,andmacroeconomicuncertaintyremains.Asaresult,CPGcompaniesareturningtoM&Abothtodefendperformancetodayandtopositiontheirportfoliosforgrowthoverthenextcycle.

CPGcompaniesareturningtoM&A

bothtodefendperformancetodayandtopositiontheirportfoliosforgrowth.

¹Definedasthepurchaseofamajorityshareofacompanywithadiscloseddealvalueabove$25million(minoritystakeinvestmentswereexcludedfromanalysis).

2Unlessotherwisenoted,thedealvaluesreportedinthisarticleareenterprisevalues.

Subsectoractivity

TherewereahandfulofCPGmegadeals,suchasKimberly-Clark'sapproximately$49billionacquisitionofKenvueandKeurigDrPepper'sapproximately$24billiondealforJDEPeet's,in2025.Theselargedealshavedrawnthemostattention,buttheysitwithinabroadanddiversewaveofacquisitionsanddivestituresasCPGcompaniescontinuetomovebeyondaperiodofcautionandonceagainuseM&Atoactivelyshapetheirportfolios.

Food:Continuedmomentum

Foodsawanoveralldecreaseinbothdealactivityanddealvaluein2025.Therewere79dealswithatotalvalueofapproximately$35billionin2025,comparedwith92dealswithatotalvalueofapproximately$67billionin2024.However,whenexcluding2024'soutlier$36billionMars-Kellanovadeal,totalfooddealvalueincreasedbynearly70percentin2025.Anewwaveof

transactionsof$1billionormore,includingFerrero's$3.1billionacquisitionofWKKellogg,propelledthissurge.Afterayearof"waitandsee,"buyersappearedtoreengagewithM&Ainstrategicallyimportantcategoriesin2025.

Beverages:Reshapedbymegadeals

Sizablemovesin2025indicateahigherdealappetiteinthebeveragesectorthanseeninrecentyears.KeurigDrPepper'sapproximately$23billionacquisitionofJDEPeet'shelpedincrease2025'sbeveragedealvalueto$43billion,morethandoubling2024'sbeveragedealvalueof

$20billion.Strategicbuyersinthesubsectorhavebeenmovingtosecureleadingpositionsinhigh-growthsubsegmentswhilerationalizingexposureelsewhere.

Privateequity:Consistentactivity,butmegadealsshiftedtoretail

Privateequity(PE)activityinCPGwasstablein2025relativeto2024,dealcountdecreasedslightly(46in2025comparedwith52in2024),andtotaldealvaluewasnearlyidentical($25billionin2025comparedwith$24billionin2024).

It'sinterestingtonotethat,unlikeinpreviousyears,themostsubstantialPEtransactionsintheoverallconsumerindustryin2025weren'tinCPGatall.PEfirmsreenteredthemarkettobuy

large-capassetsontheretailsideoftheequation.Dealsofnoteinclude3GCapital's$11.3billionacquisitionofSkechersU.S.A.,SycamorePartners'$23.7billionacquisitionofWalgreensBootsAlliance,andCD&R’s$13.5billionacquisitionofWmMorrisonSupermarkets.Overall,the

averagedealsizeforretailPEtransactionsmorethandoubledbetween2024and2025.PE's

shiftinginterestfromCPGtoretailappearstobedrivenbytwofactors.First,retailassetsenablePEfirmstodeploylargeamountsofcapitaltobusinesseswithmeaningfulvaluecreation

opportunities.Withtherightoperationalexpertise,PEhasdemonstratedthatitcancreatesubstantialvalueinthesector.Thisisparticularlytrueamidtheemergenceofnewrevenuestreamsinretail,includingadjacentservicesandcustomerdatamonetization.

Supplychainvolatility,inputcostrisk,andmargincompressionremainchallengesinCPG.

PEfirmsareremainingrelativelyactiveintheniche,premium,and“betterforyou”CPG

spaces.Butlately,theyappeartobeviewinglargeCPGacquisitionsasriskierthaninthosespaces,particularlywhererecentcost-cuttingeffortslimitthescopeforfurtheroperationalimprovement.PEfirmsmayalsoseemoreriskinlargeacquisitionsbecausetheyusuallydon'thavethesameoperationalsynergiesthatastrategicbuyercanachieve.

Consumerpackagedgoods5

Consumerpackagedgoods6

Opportunitiesfor2026—andbeyond

Withtop-linegrowthchallengedacrossmostCPGcategoriesin2025,companiesare

deployingM&Atoreshapeportfoliosandreallocateresourcestowardcorebusinessandhighergrowthcategories.

Shiftingconsumerandinvestortrendspromptportfoliorealignment

PersistentvolumeheadwindsandshiftingconsumerpreferenceshavecausedCPG

managementteamstoreevaluatebusinessunitfitandcapitalallocation,oftenafterpressure

frominvestorswhospotmisalignments.Asaresult,therehavebeenseparationsandcorporaterestructurings:KraftHeinzannouncedaplantosplitintotwoseparatepubliccompanies(GlobalTasteElevation,whichwillincludeHeinzandKraftMac&Cheese,andNorthAmericanGrocery).AndKeurigDrPepperannouncedaplantosplitintotwoindependententities(Beverageand

GlobalCoffee)inconjunctionwithitsannouncedacquisitionofJDEPeet's.

Acrossthesector,themessageisclear:SomesprawlingCPGportfoliosbuiltforthepastdecadenolongeralignwithhowconsumertastesaretrending,socapitalmustberedirected.

Rotationintohigh-growthadjacenciescontinues

CPGcompaniesarealsousingM&Atoaccessgrowthpocketsthathaveremainedresilient,

particularlyinpremium,better-for-you,andcreator-ledbrandsacrossconsumercategories.AninfluentialfactorinthestrengthofthesebrandsislikelythepurchasinghabitsofGenZ

consumers(thosebornbetween1997and2012).

McKinseyresearchsuggeststhatGenZersareaboutthreetimesmorewillingtosplurgethan

bothbabyboomers(thosebornbetween1946and1964)andsilentgenerationmembers(thosebornbetween1928and1945),particularlyonapparelandbeauty.3Youngerconsumers

contributetoovertwo-fifthsofannualwellnessspendingintheUnitedStatesdespitemakingupjustoverone-thirdoftheUSadultpopulation.

SomesprawlingCPGportfoliosbuiltforthepastdecadenolongeralignwithhowconsumertastesaretrending,socapitalmustberedirected.

3"StateoftheConsumer2025:Whendisruptionbecomespermanent,"McKinsey,June9,2025.

4"The$2trillionglobalwellnessmarketgetsamillennialandGenZglow-up,"McKinsey,May29,2025.

SeveralM&Atransactionsthathaveoccurredoverthepast12monthsexemplifythistrend.

OneexampleisL'Oréal'sannouncedapproximately$4.7billionacquisitionofcosmeticsand

fragrancebrandsfromKeringtostrengthenitspositioninthefast-growingluxury-fragrancemarket.Anotherise.l.f.Beauty's$1billionacquisitionofrhode,enablingittoenterthepremiumskincaresegment.

Operational-performanceimprovementsfuelinvestments

Inadditiontohelpingfocusportfoliosandtapgrowthpockets,acquirersusedM&Ain2025toimprovetheshapeoftheirP&Lstatementsthroughcostsynergies,freeingupcapitalforgrowthinvestments.

CPGM&Ain2025providesseveralexamplesofseizingthisareaofopportunity.Kimberly-

Clarkannounced$1.9billioninrunratecostsynergiesfromitsacquisitionofKenvue,

principallythroughcostofgoodssoldandG&Aoptimization.Thatfigurerepresentsnearly

16percentofKenvue'scostbase.KeurigDrPepperexpectsroughly$400millionintotalcostsynergiesoverthreeyearsasaresultoftheJDEPeet'sacquisition,ofwhich$200millionissupplychainsavings.

Thecontinuingemphasisonscale,efficiencygains,andothercostsynergiesmarksa

rebalancing.Growthdealsareoccurring,anddealsenablingsubstantialsynergiesareregainingmomentum.Meanwhile,somelargeCPGcompaniesthathaven'tyetengagedinmajordealsareundertakingtransformationalcost-cuttingefforts,underscoringthebroadrecognitionofthe

importanceofcostdisciplineinthecurrentenvironment.

M&Amarketbecomesmoreactive

Lookingahead,weexpectCPGM&Aactivitytoremainelevated,propelledbythefollowingfactors:

-Moreseparationsandspin-offs:Companiesarelikelytocontinuesheddingnoncoreassetstofreeupcapitalforreinvestmentintocoreandhigh-growthcategories.Theseexitedassetsandbrandscouldbecomemeaningfuladditionsforotherplayersseekingtodoubledownontheircorebusinessandincreasescale.

-Continuedpushfromactivistinvestors:AsorganicgrowthandshareholderreturnscontinuetowaneinCPG,wemayseemoreoftheseinvestorstakinglargepositionsacrossthesectorandagitatingforchange.Demandsforportfoliostreamlining,differentusesofcapital,morefocusoncorebusiness,andinvestmentingrowthcategoriescouldleadtoincreasedM&A.

-Greaterconsolidationforefficiency:Withongoingmarginpressuresandlimitedvolume

growth,acquirerswilllikelypursueprofitabilitythroughorganicinitiatives(includingrevenuemanagement,costtransformation,innovation,analyticsuse,andAl-enabledefficiencies

wherepossible).TheywilllikelyalsouseM&A(includingdealsthattargetconsolidationtoachieveoperationalscaleandcostsynergies)inthatpursuit.

-Demandreshapedbygreateradoptionofnewmedication:Theimpactoftheblockbuster

glucagon-likepeptide-1(GLP-1)drugsusedforweightlosshasalreadybeenfeltacrossthefoodandbeveragesectors.Inflation-adjustedgrowthforpackagedfoods(0.3percent)fellbelowpopulationgrowth(roughly1percent)between2023and2025.Changingtastesandhabitscouldpotentiallywidenthecurrentmisalignmentbetweenconsumerpreferencesandtheportfoliosoflarge,traditionalfoodandbeverageplayers,requiringfurtherreshaping

throughM&Aanddivestitures.

Consumerpackagedgoods7

Consumerpackagedgoods8

-Continuedvalueseekingfromconsumers:In2026,consumerswilllikelykeepfocusingon

valuebecauseofongoingpricesensitivity,higherlivingcosts,andgrowingtrustinthequalityofprivate-labelbrands.ThiscontinuedtrendcouldfuelCPGM&Aaimedatscaleefficiencies,costsynergies,andcategoryleadership.Dealswilllikelyfavorbuyersthatcanintegrate

assetstoimprovepricingpower,supplychainefficiency,andvaluetierofferings.

-Retailtransformation:Retailersaretappingintonewvaluepoolsbey