自然灾害和气候风险及复原力评估的分类法-基础设施版

Glossary

Foreword

Applicationsanduses

Acknowledgements

Taxonomies

Userpersonas

Whatisrisk

andresilience?

Climatechangeeffects

AUniversalTaxonomyfor

NaturalHazardandClimateRiskandResilienceAssessments

InfrastructureEdition

September2026

Version1.0

Glossary

Foreword

Taxonomies

Applicationsanduses

Acknowledgements

Userpersonas

Whatisrisk

andresilience?

Contents

Foreword2

Preface3

Userpersonas

33

Introduction

34

Multilateraldisaster&climateriskspecialist

35

Multilateralinfrastructurespecialist

36

Governmentresiliencelead

37

Publicorprivateinfrastructureowner

38

Investorresiliencelead

39

Infrastructureinvestmentmanager

40

Financialprotectionandinsurancespecialist

41

Riskandresiliencepractitioner

42

Glossaryofterms

43

Glossaryofterms

44

References

45

Applicationsanduses

4

Introduction

5

SimplifiedRiskClassTaxonomy

6

Purpose

7

Whentousethetaxonomy

8

Application

9

Whatisriskandresilience?

10

Whatisrisk?

11

Whatisresilience?

12

Howdoyouassessaninfrastructuresystem?

13

Consequencetypesandcommunicationofrisk

15

Climatechangeeffects

16

Incorporatingclimatechangeeffects

17

Acknowledgements46

Taxonomies19

Climatechangeeffects

ARUP

Thisframeworkprovidesstakeholdersauniversallanguageforriskandresilienceassessmentssothattheycanbetter

communicateandaligntheirneedsforspecificapplications.Wehopethatit

willbringmuchneededconsistencyand

transparencytothegrowingdemandfor

naturalhazardandclimateriskassessmentsaroundtheworldandleadtomoreresilientoutcomes.Thisversionisfocusedon

infrastructureandtheorganizationsandpeoplewhooperateandusethem.

Copyright©Arup2026

AUniversalTaxonomyforNaturalHazardandClimateRiskandResilienceAssessments

ARUP

Glossary

Taxonomies

Applicationsanduses

Whatisrisk

andresilience?

Userpersonas

Acknowledgements

Foreword

Climatechangeeffects

Foreword

HelenCrowley,MEng,MSc,PhD

SecretaryGeneral,GlobalEarthquakeModel(GEM)Foundation

“

Emergingmulti-hazardworkisdemonstratingtheimportanceofcommontaxonomiesinlinkinghazard,exposure,vulnerability

andresilienceinformationacross

disciplinesandapplications.

riskassessments,GEM’sexposuremodelsandtaxonomieshelp

describetheassetsandvulnerabilitiesthatoftenunderpinsuch

assessments.Emergingmulti-hazardworkisalreadybeginning

todrawtheseapproachestogether1,demonstratingtheimportanceofcommontaxonomiesinlinkinghazard,exposure,vulnerabilityandresilienceinformationacrossdisciplinesandapplications.

Thisisparticularlyimportantasclimateanddisasterrisk

assessmentsareincreasinglybeingusedtoinforminfrastructureinvestment,adaptationplanning,insuranceandpublicpolicy.

TheexpansionofArup’sUniversalTaxonomyforNaturalHazard

andClimateRiskandResilienceAssessmentstoinfrastructureisbothtimelyandnecessary.Thefirsteditionmadeanimportantcontributionbybringinggreaterstructureandclaritytothewaynaturalhazardandclimateriskassessmentsforbuildingsarestructured,describedand

evaluated.Sinceitspublicationjustovertwoyearsago,thetaxonomyhasalreadybeguntobetakenupacrossacademic,public-sector,

financialandmulti-hazardresearchcontexts,reflectingaclearneedforasharedlanguagebetweenbothconsumersandproducersof

riskinformation.

Thedemandforquantitativeriskinformationisgrowingrapidly,but

withoutcommonterminologyandclearexpectationsthereisariskthatassessmentsaremisunderstood,comparedinappropriately,orappliedbeyondtheirintendedpurpose.Thisreporthelpsaddressthatchallengebyusingasetofuserpersonastoillustratehowthetaxonomycan

respondtodifferentneedsalongatypicalresiliencejourney,dependingoneachuser’sroleanddecision-makingcontext.

Ithereforewelcomethisexpansionfrombuildingstoinfrastructure.

Itrepresentsanimportantsteptowardsmoreconsistent,comparableandactionableriskassessmentacrossthesystemsonwhich

societiesdepend.

Thisneedisevengreaterwhenweturntoinfrastructuresystems,whicharefundamentaltoensuringthatsocietiesandeconomiescanfunction.Damageanddisruptioncancascadethroughthesesystems,withboth

directandindirectconsequencesonorganisations,individuals,andcommunitiesthatcanextendlongaftertheinitialhazardeventhaspassed.

FromtheperspectiveoftheGlobalEarthquakeModel(GEM)

Foundation,thisworkalignscloselywithourbroadervisionfor

transparent,consistentandcomparableearthquakehazardandriskassessment.WhiletheAruptaxonomyprovidesaframeworkfor

scoping,evaluatingandcommunicatingnaturalhazardandclimate

1MinorityReportProject,fundedbytheEuropeanUnion.TheharmonisedassettaxonomydevelopedinthisprojectbuildsonArup’sUniversalTaxonomyforNaturalHazardandClimateRiskandResilienceAssessmentsandtheexposuretaxonomymaintainedbyGEM.Moreinformationat:

https://www.minorityreport

–project.eu/en

AUniversalTaxonomyforNaturalHazardandClimateRiskandResilienceAssessments2

ARUP

Glossary

Applicationsanduses

Whatisrisk

andresilience?

Userpersonas

Taxonomies

Acknowledgements

Foreword

Climatechangeeffects

Preface

RashminGunasekera,LeadDisasterRiskManagementSpecialist,PhD,MPhil(Cantab)

GlobalFacilityforDisasterReductionandRecoveryattheWorldBank

“

Byestablishingaclear,structured,anduniversallyapplicable

classificationsystemfornatural

hazardandclimateriskassessments,[thetaxonomy]givesallpartiesa

basisformeaningfuldialogue.

anduniversallyapplicableclassificationsystemfornaturalhazard

andclimateriskassessmentsacrossinfrastructuresystems,itgives

allparties—producersandconsumersofriskinformationalike—

abasisformeaningfuldialogue.Itdefinesnotonlywhatagivenlevelofassessmententails,butwhatdecisionsitcanandcannotsupport.

Thatclarityisinvaluablewhenthestakesarehighandresourcesareconstrained.

Wecommendallwhoareworkingtowardsincreasingtheresilienceofourworld'sinfrastructure.Wehopetheseframeworks—nowexpandedfrombuildingstoincludeinfrastructuresystems—

arehelpfulonthatjourney.

ThepublicationofthisInfrastructureEditionofthisUniversal

TaxonomyforNaturalHazardandClimateRiskandResilience

Assessmentsisasignificantstepforwardinourcollectiveeffortto

strengthentheresilienceoftheinfrastructuresystemsonwhichpeopleandeconomiesdepend.FortheWorldBankGroup,whosemission

istoboostsharedprosperityandendextremepovertyonaliveableplanet,theintegrationofclimateanddisasterriskintoinfrastructureinvestmentdecisionsisnotoptional—itisessential.

Naturalhazardsandclimatechangeareincreasingrisksto

infrastructure.Inlow-andlower-middle-incomecountries,where

infrastructuregapsarealreadysignificant,limitedinformationaboutexistingassetsmakesithardertounderstandwherethoserisksare

greatest.Acommontaxonomyframeworkcreatestheconditionsformoreconsistentriskscreening,bettertargetedinvestmentdecisions,andmoreeffectiveuseoflimitedresources.

Infrastructureowners,investors,developmentpractitioners,insurers,

andgovernmentplannerseachbringtheirownterminology,methods,andexpectationstothetable.Withoutacommonframework,even

well-intentionedriskassessmentscanbemisinterpreted,misapplied,orrenderedincomparable.Theresultisalossoftrust,alossofefficiency,andultimatelyalossofresilience.Thisispreciselywhythetaxonomyintroducedinthisreportmatters.Byestablishingaclear,structured,

AUniversalTaxonomyforNaturalHazardandClimateRiskandResilienceAssessments3

Glossary

Userpersonas

Foreword

Applicationsanduses

Whatisrisk

andresilience?

Acknowledgements

Taxonomies

Climatechangeeffects

Introduction

SimplifiedRiskClassTaxonomy

Purpose

Applicationsanduses

Whentousethetaxonomy

Application

AUniversalTaxonomyforNaturalHazardandClimateRiskandResilienceAssessments4

AUniversalTaxonomyforNaturalHazardandClimateRiskandResilienceAssessments5

Foreword

Applicationsanduses

Whatisrisk

andresilience?

Climatechangeeffects

Taxonomies

Userpersonas

Glossary

Acknowledgements

ARUP

Introduction

SimplifiedRiskClassTaxonomy

Purpose

Whentousethetaxonomy

Application

Introduction

Thereisanincreasingneedtotakeactiononclimateadaptationinthebuilt

environment.Variousstakeholders,frominfrastructureprofessionalsto

financiers,havebeentaskedwithleadingtheway.Yetriskandresiliencecanbehighlytechnicaltopicsandtherearelimitedresourcestohelpnon-technicalstakeholdersnavigatethepathforward.Weoftenfindthatwearenottalking

thesamelanguage,causingmis-alignmentandunmetexpectationsbetweentheconsumersandprovidersofriskandresilienceinformationandstrategies.

Ultimately,thisinhibitsthespeedandqualityofenactingresilienceandadaptationmeasuresatthescaleneeded.

Thereiscurrentlynouniversalregulatoryframeworkthatdifferentiatesbetweenlevelsortypesofriskassessmentfornaturalhazardsandclimatechangefor

infrastructuresystems,andnocriteriagoverningwhatshouldbeconsidered

adequateorappropriatefortherangeofsituationsinwhichariskassessmentmightberequired.TheBuildingsEditionoftheTaxonomy,publishedin2024,establishesastructuredframeworktodifferentiatelevelsandtypesofnaturalhazardandclimateriskassessmentsforbuildings,addressingthepriorlackofconsistentcriteriafordefiningtheirappropriateapplication.

TheUniversalTaxonomyforInfrastructurefurtherbuildsonthisapproach,

providingastructuredframeworkforestablishingwhatlevelsofriskassessmentshouldbeundertaken,ataminimum,tomakeresilience-relateddecisionsor

takeactionswithsufficientconfidencetoincreasetheresilienceofinfrastructuresystems.

TheRiskClassTaxonomyexplicitlyoutlinestheriskassessmentapproaches,dataneeds,dataquality,andtypicaloutputstoachieveagivenRiskClass.Italsoincludesdetailedtaxonomiesforasubsetofselectedhazards(includingclimatechange)andinfrastructuresystemstosupplementthegeneral

requirementsintheRiskClassTaxonomy.TheResilienceClassTaxonomyoutlinesthetypesofresiliencesolutionsandmaturitylevelneededtoachieveagivenResilienceClass.

ThesectiononUserPersonasoutlineshowtoimplementthetaxonomiesforspecificusecasesbystakeholdersinspecificroleswithinanorganization.

TheSimplifiedRiskClassTaxonomyprovidesahigh-levelsummaryforreferenceandcommunicationpurposes.

AUniversalTaxonomyforNaturalHazardandClimateRiskandResilienceAssessments6

Foreword

Applicationsanduses

Whatisrisk

andresilience?

Climatechangeeffects

Taxonomies

Userpersonas

Glossary

Acknowledgements

ARUP

Introduction

SimplifiedRiskClassTaxonomy

SimplifiedRiskClassTaxonomy

Purpose

Whentousethetaxonomy

Application

EnhancedRiskAssessment

Class2

Advancedriskassessmenttoinformhigh-stakesdecisions,resilience-baseddesign,implementableresiliencemeasures,and

costs

System-levelprobabilisticriskmodelingofallsignificantassetswithexplicit

considerationofintra-andinter-dependencies

Accuracyand

confidencelevel

Lowest

Low

Medium

Highest

VeryHigh

•Probabilisticriskresultsforindividualassets,components,and/orkeysystemsegments

•Spatialvisualizationofriskindicatorsacrossindividualassetsandlocations

•Quantitativeriskmetricsofsystemperformanceanddependencies

Levelofeffort

Lowest

LowtoMedium

MediumtoHigh

Typicalriskoutcomes

•Qualitativehazardratings

•Basicexposurestatistics

•Spatialvisualizationofthehazardexposure

•Qualitativeriskresultsforindividualassetsand/orkeysystemsegments

•Spatialvisualizationofriskindicatorsacrossassetcategoriesandlocations

•Qualitativerisknarrativesofsystemperformanceanddependencies

•Quantitativeriskresultsforindividualassetsand/orkeysystemsegments

•Spatialvisualizationofriskindicators

acrossassetsub-categoriesandlocations

•Qualitativeriskmetricsofsystemperformanceanddependencies

Qualitativehazardandexposure

assessment(vulnerabilitynotmeaningfullycaptured)

Quantitativeriskassessmentofassetsub-categorieswithengineervalidationand

simplifiedsystemconsiderations

Preliminaryriskassessmentforscreening,regulatorydisclosures,andlow-stakes

decisions

Qualitativeorsemi-quantitativeriskassessmentofassetcategoriesand(insomecases)sub-categories

Exposureassessmentforpre-screeningandminimumreporting

Riskassessmentformaterialdecisions,

preliminaryresilienceactions,andbudgets

AdvancedRiskModeling

Class3

BasicHazardScreening

Class0

BasicRiskScreening

Class1

Assessmentapproach

Application

AUniversalTaxonomyforNaturalHazardandClimateRiskandResilienceAssessments7

Foreword

Applicationsanduses

Whatisrisk

andresilience?

Climatechangeeffects

Taxonomies

Userpersonas

Glossary

Acknowledgements

ARUP

Introduction

SimplifiedRiskClassTaxonomy

Purpose

Whentousethetaxonomy

Application

Purpose

TheRiskClassTaxonomyaddressesnaturalhazardimpactsoninfrastructureassets,systems,andtheir

usersandoperators,whiletheResilienceClass

Taxonomyfocusesonintegratingresiliencesolutionsattheassetandsystemlevel.Thesetaxonomiescanbeappliedtogetherorseparatelyacrossscales—fromindividualassetstoregionalornationalinfrastructuresystems.

Thetaxonomiesareprimarilydesignedfor

networkedinfrastructure,enablingtheevaluation

ofinterconnectedsystems(suchasutilitiesand

transportationnetworks),whilealsosupporting

assessmentsofdiscreteassets(e.g.,watertreatmentfacilities)whenusedalongsidetheBuildingsEditionoftheTaxonomy.Thishybridapproachaccounts

forimportantdifferencesinassetcharacteristics,

dependencies,andsystem-levelbehavioracrossthediverserangeofinfrastructuresystemsthatcanbeevaluated.

AUniversalTaxonomyforNaturalHazardandClimateRiskandResilienceAssessments8

Foreword

Applicationsanduses

Whatisrisk

andresilience?

Climatechangeeffects

Taxonomies

Userpersonas

Glossary

Acknowledgements

ARUP

Introduction

SimplifiedRiskClassTaxonomy

Purpose

Whentousethetaxonomy

Application

Whentousethetaxonomy

Forconsumersofriskinformation

(e.g.utilityproviders,transitagencies,multi-lateral

developmentbanks,assetmanagers,investmentfunds),thetaxonomiesprovide:

•Aclearframeworkforintegratingriskassessmentsinto

internalprojectdevelopmentprocesses,assetmanagement,enterpriseriskmanagement,and/ordecision-makingcycles

•GuidancefordefiningappropriatetechnicalrequirementsinRequestforProposals(RFPs)orTermsofReference(TORs).Aconsistentbasisforcomparingbidsorproposalsfrom

serviceprovidersandconsultantsofferingdifferentlevelsofriskassessmentorresiliencesolutionsforthesameRFP

Forproducersofriskinformation(e.g.practitioners,

consultants,serviceproviders),thetaxonomiesprovide:

•Aclearframeworktostructure,describe,anddifferentiateserviceofferings

•Aconsistentbasisforpricingservicesalignedwithdefinedlevelsofanalysis

•Atoolfordefiningscopeofworkexpectationswithprojectdevelopers,funders,orotherstakeholders

AUniversalTaxonomyforNaturalHazardandClimateRiskandResilienceAssessments9

Foreword

Applicationsanduses

Whatisrisk

andresilience?

Climatechangeeffects

Taxonomies

Userpersonas

Glossary

Acknowledgements

ARUP

Introduction

SimplifiedRiskClassTaxonomy

Purpose

Whentousethetaxonomy

Application

Application

TheRiskClassTaxonomyidentifiesanumberofcommonapplications,includingdecisionsoractions,thatmaybesupportedbyeachRiskClass.TheseapplicationscanlaythefoundationsforresilienceandadaptationplansorprojectsthatalignwithagivenResilienceClass.

Thisjourneycanbemappedtothespecificorganizationalworkflowsandneedsofdifferentuserstoreflectmultipleusecases(seeUserPersonasforfurtherdetails).

LowerRiskClassesaregenerallyintendedforawareness,reporting,riskscreening,ordevelopmentofpreliminaryresiliencestrategies,while

higherRiskClassesareintendedtosupporthigher-stakesresilienceandadaptationdecisions,especiallythosethatmaybecostly,invasive,or

disruptive.

TheRiskClassTaxonomyoutlinesvariouslevelsofriskassessmenttoincrease

confidenceinmakingprogressivelymore

costlyorcomplexdecisionsasusersembarkoradvanceintheirjourneytoresilience.

Figure1.Typicaluserjourney

Scale

SystemlevelAssetlevel

Resiliencejourney

Developstrategy

Screenrisk

Implement

Quantifyrisk

Re-assess

Monitor&adjust

RiskClass1RiskClass2or3

ResilienceClass0or1ResilienceClass3

Glossary

Userpersonas

Acknowledgements

Whatisrisk

andresilience?

Taxonomies

Applicationsanduses

Foreword

Climatechangeeffects

Definingrisk

Definingresilience

Howdoyouassessaninfrastructuresystem?

Consequencetypesandcommunicationofrisk

Whatisriskandresilience?

AUniversalTaxonomyforNaturalHazardandClimateRiskandResilienceAssessments10

AUniversalTaxonomyforNaturalHazardandClimateRiskandResilienceAssessments11

Foreword

Applicationsanduses

Whatisrisk

andresilience?

Climatechangeeffects

Taxonomies

Userpersonas

Glossary

Acknowledgements

ARUP

Definingrisk

Whatisrisk?

Definingresilience

Riskistheprobabilityofincurringagivenconsequence,wherepotentialconsequencesforinfrastructuresystemsincludedamage,downtime,repaircosts,casualties,andservicedisruption.Thevariousmethodsforassessingriskforinfrastructuresystemsare

outlinedintheRiskClassTaxonomy.

Howdoyouassessaninfrastructuresystem?

Ariskassessmentmustintegratethefollowingelements:

Consequencetypesandcommunicationofrisk

Figure2.Componentsofariskassessment

Howlikelyisahazard

eventtooccur,andwhatistheintensity?Doesthehazardvaryacrossthe

infrastructuresystem?

Vulnerability

Hazard

Risk

Exposure

Howdamageablearetheexposedinfrastructure

assetsandhowsusceptibleareusersand/oroperators?

Whatarethequantities,locations,and

valuesofexposedassets,users,and/or

operators?Whatservicesdoesthesystem

providetosurroundingcommunities,

economies,and/orenvironments?

AUniversalTaxonomyforNaturalHazardandClimateRiskandResilienceAssessments12

Climatechangeeffects

Applicationsanduses

ForewordWhatisriskTaxonomiesUserpersonasGlossaryAcknowledgements

andresilience?

ARUP

Definingrisk

Definingresilience

Howdoyouassessaninfrastructuresystem?

Consequencetypesandcommunicationofrisk

Whatisresilience?

Resilienceistheabilitytoadaptto,withstand,and/orrecoverrapidlyfromtheeffectsofahazard.Infrastructureresiliencereferstotherolethataninfrastructuresystemplaysinsupportingan

organizationindeliveringitscoremission,services,andfunctionality,andensuringsafeandaccessibleconditionsforusers.

TheResilienceClassTaxonomyhasbeendefinedtohelpstakeholdersunderstandtheappropriatelevelofriskawarenessneededtoplananddesignresilienceandadaptationsolutionsfortheir

specificneeds,withprogressivelyhigherResilienceClassesrepresentingmoreconfidenceinthefeasibility,riskreductionpotential,andcosteffectivenessofpotentialsolutions.

TheResilienceClassTaxonomyisalignedwiththeRiskClassTaxonomy,asresilienceand

adaptationsolutionsaretypically(thoughnotalways)informedbyidentificationofthefactorsdrivingrisk.Implementationofthemostcostlyorcomplexresiliencesolutionsrequiresdeepinsightsintothevulnerableinfrastructureassetsdrivingtherisk(i.e.,RiskClass2or3)sothattargetedadaptationmeasurescanbedevelopedandevaluated.

TheResilienceClassTaxonomyfocusesonphysicalinterventionsandoperationalmeasures

aimedatmanagingandreducingrisk,increasingadaptivecapacity,and/orcreatingredundancy

withintheinfrastructuresystem.Broaderresilienceconsiderations(e.g.,environmental

degradation,regionaleconomiclosses,socialcohesiveness)canalsobeevaluated,butthiscanbeasignificantundertaking.Therefore,theResilienceClassTaxonomyoutlinesdifferinglevelsofeffortforincludingthesebroaderresilienceconsiderations.

AUniversalTaxonomyforNaturalHazardandClimateRiskandResilienceAssessments13

Foreword

Applicationsanduses

Whatisrisk

andresilience?

Climatechangeeffects

Taxonomies

Userpersonas

Glossary

Acknowledgements

ARUP

Definingrisk

Howdoyouassessaninfrastructuresystem?

Definingresilience

Howdoyouassessaninfrastructuresystem?

Consequencetypesandcommunicationofrisk

Thevariousmethodsforassessingriskforinfrastructuresystemsareoutline