2025年全球航空可持续发展报告

Global

AviationSustainabilityOutlook2025W

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5Images:Getty

ImagesContentsForeword

3Executivesummary

51

Cautiousoptimism

72

Sustainability

risks

102.1Technologychallenges

112.2

Policyandgeopoliticalchallenges

192.3Sustainabilitychallenges253

Non-sustainability

risksandtrends263.1

Policyandgeopolitical

risks273.2

Economic

risks283.3Social

issues

313.4Technology

risks

32

Conclusion

34Appendix:

Methodology35Contributors36Acknowledgements36Endnotes

37GlobalAviationSustainabilityOutlook2025

2traffic,

policy,

investmentandfeedstockflows.Theseeventsare

impactingthedynamics

between

countriesandtheopportunitiesforcollaborationatatimewhensuchcooperation

is

critical

forthe

low-carbontransition.

Inthis

importantyearforaviationsustainability,theWorld

EconomicForumaimstofosterthe

internationalaction

and

collaboration

needed

betweengovernments,aviationstakeholdersandthewidervaluechain

to

accelerate

industry’stransitionto

net-zeroaviation

andensuresustainability

remains

paramount

inthe

sector’squestfor

growth.Theaviation

industry

hasdemonstrated

itsability

totransformandadapt,by

overcoming

some

of

thechallengesthat

haveaffectedthesector

inrecentyears,fromsafety

issuestosupply

chainconstraintsand

long-COVID

impacts.

Howcanthisspiritofresilience

befunnelled

towards

fuelling

greatersustainabilityand

howcan

momentumfor

sustainableaviation

be

maintainedasthesector

expands?Which

prioritiesandactionscan

betakenforward?Which

risksshould

public-private

collaborationfocusonthisyeartoaccelerateprogresstowardsdecarbonization?Thesearesomeofthe

questionswe

posedtoChief

ExecutiveOfficersfromtheWorld

Economic

Forum’saviationcommunity

in

late2024

and

early

2025.Theirviews

have

informedthis

newflagship

reportthataimstosetthescene

for

discussionsovertheyearahead.Ourassessment,which

weplanto

publish

regularly

inthisformat,

reviews

key

marketdevelopmentsandcomplementsthemwith

stakeholders’perspectivesand

priorities.Ouraim

istocapturetheevolutionof

aviation

executives’viewsovertimeandto

informongoing

opportunities

for

public-privatecollaboration.Thisyear

marksan

important

momentfortheaviationsector’sjourneyto

netzero.

Updatednationalaction

planson

howcountries

intendto

decarbonizeaviation

needto

besubmittedtothe

InternationalCivilAviationOrganization

(ICAO)

by

the

nextgeneralassembly

inSeptember.As

partofthosedecarbonization

plans,the

firstfewsustainableaviationfuel

(SAF)

mandatesin

Europecame

intoforce

inJanuary

–

withincreasinglytoughtargets

upto2030.

Over

thecoming

months,

moreSAF

plantswill

looktomaketheirfinal

investmentdecision

and

potentiallyprogresstoconstruction.

Expectationsforeconomy-widedecisionsat

COP30

in

October

arealso

high,withthe

aviation

and

clean

fuels

agenda

playingan

increasingly

prominent

role

inmultilateralevents,

includingtheG7

and

G20.The

actionsthat

industry

and

governmentsacrosstheworldtake

this

year

will

be

vital

toensurethe

aviation

sector

remains

onthe

rightflight

pathto

meet

internationally

agreedtargets,with

no

countries

or

regions

left

behind

inthequestfor

sustainability.The

globalvision

agreedthrough

ICAO

meansthat,withinfive

years,

thecarbon

intensity

ofjetfuelwill

haveto

reduceby

5%

.

Looking

ahead

25years,

ICAO’s

long-term

“aspirational

goal”

is

net-zero

international

aviation

by

2050.However,thesector

isalso

poisedto

growsignificantly

bythatdate.Aviationexecutivesareincreasinglyfacingtrade-offs

betweensustainability

andgrowth,and

boththeseare

affected

bytheconstantlyevolvinggeopoliticalcontext,with

increasedconflicts,

loomingtrade

barriersand

recentelectionsacrosstheglobe

affecting

airGlobalAviationSustainabilityOutlook2025ForewordGim

Huay

NeoManaging

Directorand

Head,Centre

forNature

and

Climate,World

Economic

ForumGlobalAviationSustainabilityOutlook2025

3March2025In2024,theaviationindustryreachedasignificantmilestone,withglobalpassengertrafficnotonlyrecoveringbutalsosurpassingthepre-pandemiclevelsof2019,markinganeweraofgrowth.Airports

play

a

key

role

in

the

aviation

sector,

directly

employing11.6millionpeopleworldwide.Asenablersofasustainableaviationecosystem,airportsarefocused

onreducingenergydemand,improvingefficiencyand

supportingthedeploymentofSAF.However,challenges

remain.Governments,energy

producersandthefinancesector

mustaccelerateSAFadoptionthroughtargeted

policiesandinvestments.Transparenttraceabilitysystemsare

crucialandgovernments

must

integrateaviation’s

cleanenergy

needs

into

national

policies,ensuring

accesstogreenenergy.

Infrastructuredevelopment

forclimate

resilience,

backed

byfinancialmechanisms,

isalsovital.Wearecommittedtocollaboratingwith

industry

partners

in2025and

beyond

in

buildingasustainableaviationfuture.Justin

ErbacciDirector

General,AirportsCouncil

InternationalWorldGlobalAviationSustainabilityOutlook2025

44Effectivenessofcarbon

pricingandemissionstradingschemesAviation’sjourneytowards

netzerofaces

numerouseconomic,technologicaland

geopolitical

risks,

butthe

mainchallenge

for2025

istheavailability

and

cost

ofsustainableaviationfuel.Thisreport,producedbyAirportsofTomorrow–aWorldEconomicForuminitiative

bringingtogetherleadersfromacrosstheaviationindustry–aimstoprovideanoverviewofthetoprisksandopportunities

affectingaviationdecarbonizationprogressin2025,asperceivedbyindustrymembers.Thegoal

istoaccelerateactionsthattheaviationindustrycantakeforwardonSAF,battery-electricandhydrogenaviationtoachieveanet-zeroaviationindustryby2050.AirportsofTomorrowC-suitestakeholderswere

surveyedandinterviewedtocaptureperspectives,opportunitiesandrisksconcerningthisyear’sprogress

ondecarbonizingaviation.The

aviation

sector

is

at

a

criticaljuncturein

2025,

as

updated

state

action

plansfordecarbonization

are

due

to

be

submitted

to

theInternational

CivilAviation

Organization

(ICAO)

.Industry

stakeholders

are

increasingly

lookingto

advance

aviation

decarbonization

activity

intandem

with

boosting

growth

post

COVID-19,

buta

number

ofchallenges

are

affecting

progress

onsustainability.Thisyear’s

actions

by

industry

andgovernments

arevitalto

meeting

internationallyagreedtargets

and

ensuring

no

regions

are

leftbehind

inthetransitionto

net-zero

aviation.Executivesummary4Competing

priorities(e.g.climate

resilience,growth,

revenue)3

Economic

downturn

and

inflation1

Availability/cost

of

SAFAlignmentofSAF

policy

acrossregionsand

longevityof

subsidies3FIGURE1Top-10risks

affecting

aviation

decarbonization

progressNote:SAF=sustainable

aviation

fuel,CORSIA

=

Carbon

Offsetting

and

Reduction

Scheme

for

International

Aviation.Bankabilityandattractiveness

of

theaviationsectorfor

investorsTraceabilityofsustainability

criteriaforSAFfeedstocksAviation-specific

risks1

GeopoliticsGlobalAviationSustainabilityOutlook2025

5ImplementationofCORSIAWider

risks525●PolicyandgeopoliticsgovernmentsSource:World

Economic

Forum.●

Sustainability●

TechnologyChange

in●

Economic2Aviation-specificrisksAvailability

and

cost

of

SAF

are

the

biggest

challenges

foraviationdecarbonizationin2025.Airlinesneedtocommittolong-termSAFofftakeagreementsbutde-riskingmechanismsarevitalastherisksofadvancedSAFproductiontechnologiesandvaryingregionalpoliciesposesignificanthurdles.

MorecorporateinvolvementandfavourablepoliciesareessentialtoattractcapitalandsupportSAFprojectsglobally.AlignmentofSAFpoliciesacrossregionsandlongevityofsubsidiesarecrucialforencouraginginvestmentandensuringconsistentSAFadoptionacrossregions.In2024,AsiaPacific

emergedasakeymarket:severalcountriesintroducedsupportivepolicies,whileChinaisexpectedtounveildetailedSAFpoliciesthisyear.BrazilandChilehaveestablishednationalSAFprogrammesandpartnerships.OmanandSaudiArabiaareformulatingstrategiesforSAFdevelopment.EuropehasstrongSAFpoliciesbutfacescompetitionfromemergingmarketswithcompetitivefeedstockadvantages.IntheUS,thefutureofSAFincentivesremainsuncertainduetopolitical

changes.Patchypolicyframeworksandvaryingsustainability

standardsposechallenges:consistent,alignedpoliciesareneededtosupportglobaladoptionofSAFandensure

progresstowardsdecarbonization.ImplementationofCORSIA:effectiveimplementationof

ICAO’s

Carbon

Offsetting

and

Reduction

Scheme

forInternationalAviation

(CORSIA)

isessentialforstandardizing

carbon

reductioneffortsandensuringglobal

compliance.Despite

positive

momentum,with

more

countries

joiningand

newcarboncredit

programmesapproved,challengesremain

due

to

non-participation

of

major

countries.TraceabilityofsustainabilitycriteriaforSAFfeedstocks:asaviation’srelianceonSAFincreases,scrutinyonthesustainabilitycredentialsoffeedstockswillintensify.Concernsaroundland-usechange,deforestation,pooragriculturalpractices,foodsecurityandbiodiversityimpactshaveledtoregulatoryrestrictionsandbansoncertainbiofuels.

Improved

transparencyandresearch,alongwithconsistentsustainability

standards,areessentialtoaddresstheserisksandsupportthedevelopmentofalternativeSAFproductionpathways.Effectivenessofcarbonpricingandemissionstradingschemes:airlines

will

need

to

navigate

both

CORSIA

andlocal

emission

trading

schemes,with

varying

regionalpolicies

and

the

inclusion

of

non-CO2

emissions

addingcomplexityandpotentialcompliance

costs.Bankabilityandattractivenessofthe

aviation

sector

for

investors:aviation

is

notseen

as

a

priority

sectorfor

investment

bythefinancial

community,

despite

needing

significant

capitalto

meet

decarbonization

goals.

Multipleaviation

technologies

(e.g.

SAF,

hydrogen,

eVTOLs)

arelookingto

secure

capital,withthefirst

large

investmentsin

SAF

in

2024

and

increasing

momentum

for

eVTOLs.Technology

challenges

and

regulatory

pressures

persist,

influencingwhether

and

how

investments

in

aviationdecarbonizationtechnologies

are

being

made

and

perceived

bythefinancial

community.Economicdownturnand

inflation:despiteeasinginflationarypressuresandencouragingprofitabilityfigures,theglobaleconomicoutlookremainsaconcernforaviationexecutives,particularlyinemergingmarkets.

Rising

costs

inlabour,supplychainbottlenecksandregulatory

uncertaintyareimpactingprofitabilityandaffectingthesector’sfocus

onthenet-zero

agenda.Change

in

governments:following

a

year

of“superelections”,stakeholdersareconcernedaboutchanginggovernment

priorities,

policy

U-turns

and

the

longevityofincentivesthatcould

impactaviation

decarbonization.Some

countries,

like

the

United

Kingdom,

have

acceleratedtowards

sustainable

aviation,

but

this

is

not

the

global

trend.Elections

this

year

in

Australia,Canada,Germany,Singaporeand

Latin

America

could

further

influence

aviation

policies.Geopoliticsisthetopnon-sustainabilitychallenge

affectingprogress

on

decarbonizing

aviation.The

withdrawal

ofthe

US

from

the

Paris

Agreement

in

early2025and

the“America

First”trade

policy

are

being

closely

monitoredby

the

aviation

community,as

increasing

protectionismand

tariffs

pose

significant

risks.Geopolitical

tensions

aredestabilizingfeedstockexportsandfuellingdomesticenergy

security

concerns.

International

scrutiny

on

fairness

andcompetitivenessaddstothecomplexdynamicsat

play.Competing

priorities:asthesectorlookstogrowfurtherintermsofpassengernumbers,connectivityandprofitability,the

decarbonizationagendafaceschallengestoensureaviation’s

expansioncanbesustainableandcanattractthecapitalneededtoscale-upnewtechnologyandmeetdecarbonization

goals,inanincreasinglycompetingenvironment.Profitability,Widerrisksgrowth,climateresilienceandconsumerexperienceimprovementsarecriticalareasoffocusforAirportsofTomorrowstakeholders,affectinghowaviationexecutivesseeandprioritizethedecarbonizationagendaacrossregions.Note:These

risksare

basedon

responsestothesurveyofaviation

executives

conductedfor

this

report.Top-10risksaffectingaviationdecarbonizationprogressGlobalAviationSustainabilityOutlook2025

6TABLE

115334422511

CautiousoptimismExpectationsare

highforayear

of

climateaction

in2025toensurethe

decarbonization

visionfor2030ofthe

International

CivilAviationOrganizationcan

beachieved.FIGURE2OptimismaboutprogressondecarbonizationLookingaheadat2025,howoptimistic

areyouthatthe

aviation

sector

willmakemeaningfulprogresstowards

decarbonization?Industry

leadersflaggedsomedevelopmentsas

particularly

promising:–

Thesecond

halfof

2024

saw

notablebreakthroughs

intechnologydevelopmentandinvestment,withsignificantcapital

raised

bySAFstart-ups.–SAFproductiondoubledfrom

2023to

2024

and

isexpectedtodouble

again

in

2025.1Respondentswerealso

largelyoptimisticaboutthefeasibilityofthe2030vision

agreed

atthethirdConferenceonAviationandAlternative

Fuels

(CAAF/3),convened

bythe

InternationalCivilAviationOrganization

(ICAO)

in

Dubai

in

November

2023

(see

Box

1and

Figure3).

However,a

minority

ofrespondents

remain

pessimisticaboutthesector’sabilityto

reducethecarbonfootprintof

aviationfuels

by5%

bytheend

ofthe

decade.Duringthe

last

quarter

of2024,

the

WorldEconomic

Forum

surveyedtheviews

ofaround30

C-suite

executivesfromthe

aviationcommunity.

Despite

headwinds

lastyear–

including

SAF

plantclosures,scrapped

projectsanddelays

in

policyguidanceand

incentives–executives

Morethantwo-thirdsofrespondentsto

the

Forum’sC-suite

surveywereconfidentthat

themomentumforaviationdecarbonizationwillcontinue

in2025.werecautiouslyoptimistic.

Morethantwo-thirdsof

respondentswereconfidentthatthemomentumfor

aviationdecarbonizationwillcontinue

in2025,with

a

minorityvoicing

neutralor

negativeexpectations

fortheyearahead

(see

Figure

2).–Afterseveralelectioncyclesacrosstheglobe,moreadministrationsareintroducingnew

SAFpoliciesorstrengtheningexistingpolicies–thenewgovernmentintheUnited

Kingdom

boosted

supportforSAFwithinweeksoftakingoffice.0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%GlobalAviationSustainabilityOutlook2025

7●Somewhatpessimistic●

Veryoptimistic●SomewhatoptimisticSource:World

Economic

Forum.

Neutraladopteda

newICAOGlobalFrameworkforSustainable

AviationFuels(SAF),LowerCarbon

AviationFuels(LCAF)andother

AviationCleaner

Energies,whichaimsto

reduceCO2

emissions

in

internationalaviation

by5%

by2030,comparedtozerocleanerenergy

use.CORSIA:TheCarbonOffsettingandReductionSchemefor

InternationalAviationwasadoptedby

ICAO

in2016toachievecarbonneutralgrowthfrom2020.Theglobalmarket-basedschemerequires

airlinestooffsetany

increase

inCO2

emissions

above2019levels.CORSIA’s

pilot

phase

began

on

1January2021anditwill

become

mandatory

forallcountries

in

2027.Source:

ICAO.2Optimism

that

ICAO’s2030vision

will

be

achievedNote:CAAF/3=Third

Conference

on

Aviation

and

Alternative

Fuels,

convened

by

the

International

Civil

Aviation

Organization

(ICAO)

in

Dubai

in

November

2023.Source:World

Economic

Forumindustrysurvey.The

next

ICAOGeneralAssembly

inSeptember

2025will

bean

important

momenttoassessindustryoptimismaroundthe2030vision

andwhetherthe

long-termglobalaspirationalgoal(LTAG)for

net-zerocarbonemissions

by2050

will

remainthe

northstarguidingcountries

ahead.Severalofthestakeholders

interviewedwould

like

tosee

renewedsupportfor

ICAOfromall

countries,

witha

particularfocusonsupportingthe

GlobalSouthtoachieveajustandequitable

transition.ICAO’sGeneralAssemblywill

not

betheonly

internationalevent

underscrutinythisyear.November’sCOP30

in

Brazil

representsa

major

momenttoadvanceclimate

negotiationsonthe

backofdevelopmentsduring

COP29

inBakuandthesubmissionof

updated

nationally

determinedcontributions(NDCs)during

2025.Whileaviation

hastraditionallytaken

up

limitedspaceduring

recentconferencesof

parties,COP29

sawa

multitudeofaviation-relatedevents

andconversationsspurred

by

keydevelopments

in

international

negotiations.In

Baku,

boththeagreementof

a

new

collectivequantifiablegoal–aimingto

scale-up

at

least

$1.3trillionof

public-privatefinancingfor

developingcountries

by2035–and

the

adoption

of

finalArticle

6

rules

have

implicationsonaviation.The

former

ledto

multiplecallsfor

implementing

aglobalsolidarity

levyonaviation

and

shipping

fuels

(seeChapter3.3),3

whilethe

latter

paved

the

way

forasmoother

implementationof

ICAO’s

CORSIA

scheme

byclarifying

ruleson

correspondingadjustmentsforthe

useof

carbon

credits

as

mitigation

measures

inaviation,whileavoidingdoublecountingtowards

an

NDC.Netzero

by2050:Atthe41st

ICAOAssembly

inOctober2022,delegatesfrom

184

memberstatesof

ICAOand

57organizationsadopteda

collective

long-termglobalaspirationalgoal

(LTAG)

of

net-zero

carbonemissions

by2050.Thisgoal

will

beachievedthroughacceleratedadoptionof

new

and

innovativeaircrafttechnologies,streamlined

flightoperationsand

increased

productionand

deploymentofsustainableaviationfuels

(SAF).5%

reduction

incarbonemissionsfrom

aviation

fuel

by

2030:Atthethird

ICAOConferenceonAviation

andAlternative

Fuels

(CAAF/3),

in

Dubai

in

November2023,over

100

memberstates

Thenext

ICAOGeneralAssemblyinSeptember2025will

be

animportantmoment

toassessindustry

optimismaroundthelong-termglobal

aspirationalgoalfornet-zerocarbonemissions

by2050.Howoptimisticareyouthatthe2030visionagreedat

CAAF/3

last

year

will

be

achieved?0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%BOX1Decarbonization

vision

of

the

International

Civil

Aviation

Organization

(ICAO)GlobalAviationSustainabilityOutlook2025

8●Somewhatpessimistic●

Veryoptimistic●●

VerypessimisticSomewhatoptimisticFIGURE3

NeutralTheaviationindustry’s

journeytowardsnetzeroisatestamenttothepowerofinnovationandcollaboration.AtEcoCeres,wearecommittedtoscalingSAFproductionthroughcutting-edgetechnologiesandstrategicpartnerships,ensuring

thatcostandavailabilitynolongerhinderprogress.Asupdatedstateactionplans

aresubmittedtoICAO,itisimperativethatgovernments,industryleadersandinnovatorsworkhand-in-handtoacceleratedecarbonizationefforts.Together,we

canturnthesechallengesintosteppingstones,ensuringasustainablefuturefor

aviationandleavingnoregionbehindinthetransitiontonetzero.Matti

Lievonen,ChiefExecutiveOfficer,

EcoCeresAsaviationand

climate

negotiators

convene

ininternationalforumsduringthis

pivotalyear

forclimateaction,severalsurveyed

CEOs

highlightedthe

needforgovernmentstoagree

on

a

consistentaviationdecarbonizationapproach

acrosscountriesandtoestablish

a

clear

path

to

carbonemissions

reductiontargetsalreadyset,

potentiallythroughthe

introductionof

interim

milestonesonthejourneytothe2030

ICAOvision

and

2050long-termaspirationalgoal,so

as

to

better

guide

industryand

investors.However,notallrespondentsweresupportive

ofadditionalmilestonesortargets,giventheincreasing

fatiguearoundsustainabilitytargetsthatemergedat

theendoflastyear.Someexecutiveswarnedaboutsettingtargetswithoutsupportingactions.Chapter2exploressome

ofthe

more

significantenablers

proposed

by

industry

leaders,suchasglobalstandardizationofSAFsustainability

criteria,

regulatorystandards

buildingonCORSIAand

the

adoptionofglobalde-risking

mechanismsforSAF.GlobalAviationSustainabilityOutlook2025

9SustainabilityrisksSAFavailabilityand

incentivesremaintop

priority,as

momentum

forother

levers

reduces.1

Availability/cost

of

SAF89

Greenwashing

and

consumer

scepticism3

Implementation

of

CORSIA2

AlignmentofSAF

policy

across

regionsand

longevityofsubsidies6

Availabilityandcostofgreenelectricity,

hydrogenand

infrastructure7

their

impact.Three

maingroupsofchallengeswere

identifiedaroundtechnology,

policyandgeopolitics

andsustainability

(see

Figure4).The

Forum’ssurveyofaviationexecutives

askedthemto

rankthe

immediate

risksdirectlyaffecting

progressonaviationdecarbonization,accordingtoAvailabilityofcarbondioxideremovalsand

out-of-sector

carbon

offsetsTop10aviation-specificrisksaffectingdecarbonizationprogressEffectivenessofcarbon

pricingandemissionstradingschemesTraceabilityofsustainabilitycriteriaforSAFfeedstocksAvailabilityofhydrogenand

battery-electricaircraftGeographicalconcentrationofresourcesGlobalAviationSustainabilityOutlook2025

10Source:World

Economic

Forumindustrysurvey.24510●Policyandgeopolitics●Sustainability●

TechnologyFIGURE4ICAO

SAF

tracker

for

offtake

agreementsNumber

(#)ofofftakeagreements;offtakevolumes

(million

litres);and

length

(years)21,715454018,0003516,000302520156,000104,0005

416020202021

2022202320246.3Offtake

length

(years)●Offtakevolumes(million

litres)Number

of

agreementsSource:

ICAO.2.1

Technology

challenges ICAO’s

onlinet