高盛-美洲矿业：铜稀缺溢价：铜项目投资框架-Copper Scarcity Premium：An Investment Framework for Copper Projects-20261019

htEtqpi:t/wse.vaaruhelist

19October2026|6:49AMBRT

AMERICASMINING

CopperScarcityPremium:AnInvestmentFrameworkforCopperProjects

Newcoppersupplyishardertobuild:discoveriesaredeclining,gradesarefalling,capitalintensityisrising,anddevelopmenttimelinesnowextendwellbeyonda

typicalinvestmenthorizon.Inthisreportweintroduceaframeworktovaluecopperprojectsforthecompanieswecoverinastandardizedandrisk-adjustedbase.Wealsoincludedetailedanalysisforacombinedsetofprojectsthatcouldadd$20Binvalueandsupplyanincrementalc.1mtpaofcopperproductionbylate2035.

Copper’ssupplyconstraintisstructural,notcyclical,andwethinkmostofthe

valueshouldbecapturedthroughequities.Majordiscoverieshavebeendeclining,gradesarefalling,capitalintensityisrising,andthemediancopperminenowtakesmorethansixteenyearsfromdiscoverytofirstproduction.Withsupplyfromexistingminessettorolloverfrom2030,ahighercopperpricetodaycannotbring

meaningfulnewsupplywithinatypicalinvestmenthorizon.Wethereforethinktheadjustmenthastocomemainlythroughprice,withthemarketgraduallygivingmorevaluetocoppercompaniesandgrowthassetsthataredifficult,expensive,and

time-consumingtoreplicate.

Notallgrowthprojectsshouldreceivethesamecredit.Wecompareprojects

usingastandardizedrisk-adjustedframeworkbasedonstudystage,capexandopexescalation,timingdelays,andresource-to-reserveconversion.Theframework

assigns0.50xNAVtoPEA-stageprojects,0.75xtoPFS-stageprojects,and1.00xtoFS/FID-stageprojects,withadditionalassumptionstoreflectexecutionrisk.This

allowsustocompareprojectsacrosscompanies,jurisdictions,ownershipstructures,anddevelopmenttimelinesonaconsistentbasis.

Hudbayisourpreferredwaytoownthistheme,followedbyFirstQuantum,

Capstone,andEro.HudbayoffersthebestcombinationofprojectNAVaccretion,coppergrowth,portfoliodiversification,U.S.jurisdictionalexposure,andstaggeredcatalyststhroughCopperWorld,Cactus,andMason.FirstQuantumrankssecond,supportedbyTacaTaca,thestrongestsingleassetonNAVcontribution,togetherwithmorelong-datedoptionalityatLaGranjaandHaquiraandabest-in-class

projectexecutiontrackrecord.Capstoneranksthird,offeringnearer-termgrowththroughSantoDomingo.Eroranksfourth.Furnasisahigh-grade,low-costorebodywithstrongleveragetocopperandgoldprices,butitsearly-stagestatus,60%

ownership,andValefree-carryreducetheattributableNAVcontribution.

MarcioFarid

+55(11)3371-4580|marcio.farid@

GoldmanSachsdoBrasilCTVMS.A.

EmersonVieira

+55(11)3372-0256|

emerson.vieira@

GoldmanSachsdoBrasilCTVMS.A.

HenriqueMarques

+55(11)3371-0778|

henrique.marques@

GoldmanSachsdoBrasilCTVMS.A.

GoldmanSachsdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.

Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegAC

certificationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto

/research/hedge.html.Analystsemployedbynon-USaffiliatesarenotregistered/qualifiedasresearch

analystswithFINRAintheU.S.

GoldmanSachs

httAp:e/r/icwawswMining

TableofContents

ExecutiveSummary-WhattoOwnandWhy

3

Copper-TheValueofScarcityisontheCommodityandEquities

7

GSInvestmentFrameworkforCopperProjects

13

CapstoneCopper-SantoDomingo

16

EroCopper-Furnas

19

FirstQuantumMinerals-TacaTaca&LaGranja

23

GrupoMexico-Ray,SilverBell,AmarilloandHayden

30

HudbayMinerals-CopperWorld,Cactus&Mason

33

SouthernCopper

40

Vale’sVBMoperations

44

EstimateChanges

48

AppendixIValuation&KeyRisks

51

DisclosureAppendix

55

19October20262

GoldmanSachs

httAp:e/r/icwawswM.ining

19October20263

ExecutiveSummary-WhattoOwnandWhy

Copperscarcityisbecominginvestablethroughequities.Newcoppersupplyishardertobuild:discoveriesaredeclining,gradesarefalling,capitalintensityisrising,anddevelopmenttimelinesnowextendwellbeyondatypicalinvestmenthorizon.

Thismakescrediblecoppergrowthportfoliosstrategicallyscarce,andwethinkthemarketwillgraduallyascribeavaluationpremiumforthoseassets.

Hudbayisourpreferredwaytoownthistheme,followedbyFirstquantum.HBMoffersthebestcombinationofprojectNAVaccretion,coppergrowth,portfolio

diversification,USjurisdictionalexposure,andstaggeredcatalyststhroughCopperWorld(withPhaseIIexpansionoptionality),Cactus,andMason.FirstQuantum

rankssecond,withthebestsingleassetinTacaTacaonNAVcontribution,withalsomeaningfulbutmorelong-datedgrowthatLaGranjaandHaquiraoptionalitywhilebeingthebest-inclassbuildoutexecutor.Capstoneranksthird,offering

nearer-termtransformationalgrowththroughSantoDomingo,thoughwithshortercopperduration.Eroranksfourth.Furnasisahigh-grade,low-costorebody.

Early-stagestatus,60%ownership,andVale’sfree-carryreducetheNAV

contribution,buttheprojectishighlyleveragedtobothcopperandgoldprices.WedonotapplyourprojectNAVframeworktoSouthernCopperorVale’sbroaderVBMpipelinebecauseproject-leveldisclosure,timing,anddirectequity-valuerelevancearelesscomparabletothecorecopper-growthassets;wethereforetreatthose

pipelinesmainlyasstrategicoptionalitiesfornow.

Werisk-adjusteachprojectusingastandardizedframeworkbasedonstudystage,capexescalation,opexescalation,timingdelay,andresource-to-reserveconversion.Theframeworkassigns0.50xNAVtoPEA-stageprojects,0.75xtoPFS-stage

projects,and1.00xtoFS/FID-stageprojects.

19October20264

9,300

9,550

9,900

10,850

11,590

12,500

12,500

12,700

13,450

14,350

14,400

14,750

16,500

17,250

Exhibit1:HBMandFirstQuantumhavethelargestcoppergrowthpotential(>200%+growth).FirstQuantumcouldbeproducing>1MtCuafterCobrePanamarestart.

Coppergrowthpotential(pro-formawith10-yravgproduction,kt-100%basis)

273%

96%

44%

429

200

91

95

131

208

95

117

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

207%

287

400

CapstoneEroCopperHudbayFirstQuantum

2026ECopperWorldMasonCactusFurnas

SantoDomingoCobrePanamaTacaTacaLaGranja

Hudbayhas70%ownershiponCopperWorld,Capstonehas75%onSantoDomingo,EroCopperhas60%onFurnasandFirstQuantumhas55%onLaGranja.Otherassetsarefullyowned.

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit3:ImpliedCopperPricewithprojectsat1xNAV($/t)

HBMinc.allprojectsFirstQuantumjectsandinc.CP

HBMinc.CopperWorld+Cactus

FirstQuantumex-projectsbutwithCPHBMincCopperWorldSouthernCopper

FirstQuantumjectsbutex-CPCapstoneinc.projects HBMex-projectsCapstoneex-projectsCopperSpot

EroCopperinc.projectsEroCopperex-projects

FirstQuantumex-projectsandex-CP

04,0008,00012,00016,00020,000

Exhibit2:HBMhasthehighestNAVaccretionpotential,giventhegreaternumberofcoppergrowthprojects.FQMissecondbasedduetolarge-scaleTacaTacaproject(butmorelong-datedvsCapstone’sSantoDomingo).

Selectcoppergrowthproject’sNAV(atstakeand1xNAVMultiple,%ofthemarketcap)

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

20%

26%

46%

27%

17%

9%

HBMFirstQuantumCapstoneEroCopper

CopperWorld(PFS)Cactus(PFS)Mason(PEA)

TacaTaca(PFS)LaGranja(PEA)SantoDomingo(PFS)Furnas(PEA)

EachprojectisevaluatedwithaspecificNAVmultiple,basedonthestageof

development:1xNAVforprojectswithFinalInvestmentDecision/Definite

FeasibilityStudy(FID/DFS)published,0.75xforPre-feasibilitystudy(PFS),0.5xforPreliminaryEconomicAssessment(PEA)

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch,Bloomberg

Exhibit4:Freecashflowyield2026-2035Eex-projects(%)

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E2031E2032E2033E2034E2035E

Capstoneex-projects

EroCopperex-projects

FirstQuantumex-projectsandex-CP

FirstQuantumex-projectsbutwithCP

HBMex-projects

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchSource:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

19October20265

'26E

'27E

'28E

'29E

'30E

'31E

'32E

'33E

'34E

'35E

'36E

'37E

'38E

'39E

'40E

'41E

'42E

'43E

'44E

'45E

kt

Exhibit6:EroCopper’sFurnasandFirstQuantum’sLa

Granjaaretheprojectsmostleveragedtocopperandgoldprices,giventheirhighcash-flowdurationandmore

dilutedownership(60%/55%each).

ChangeinstakeNAVfor10%changeincopperandgoldprices(%)

47%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

16%

17%

44%

23%

23%

23%

23%

0%

2%

0%

0%

2%

2%

CopperWorld

MasonCactusFurnasSanto

Domingo

TacaTacaLaGranja

-10%

StakeNAVchangefor+10%incopperprices

StakeNAVchangefor+10%ingoldprices

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit8:Transformationalcoppergrowthprojectsproduction(100%basis)

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

CopperWorld

Cactus

LaGranja

SantoDomingo

Mason

TacaTaca

Furnas

Exhibit5:Freecashflowyieldincludingprojects2026-2035E(%,atstake)

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E2031E2032E2033E2034E2035E

Capstoneinc.projectsEroCopperinc.projects

FirstQuantumjectsbutex-CPFirstQuantumjectsandinc.CP

HBMinc.projectsSouthernCopper

ItdoesnotincludeMason,LaGranja,whichwemodel

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit7:Weestimatekey,transformationalcopper

growthprojectshavea~$20BNAV(or45%oftheowner’scombinedmarketcapatstake).

RollingNPVforselectcopperprojects(100%)

$mn

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0

'26E

'27E

'28E

'29E

'30E

'31E

'32E

'33E

'34E

'35E

'36E

'37E

'38E

'39E

'40E

'41E

'42E

'43E

'44E

'45E

2046E

TacaTacaLaGranjaCactusMasonSantoDomingoFurnas

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchVBMwouldaddmore~330ktby2035.SCCOcanaddTiaMaria(120kt)andEl

Pilar(+36kt)withmorevisibility.

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

GoldmanSachsAmericasMining

Exhibit9:SelectLatAmcoppergrowthprojects-Avgannualproduction(kt),Cugrade(%)andsizeofM&Iresources(includingreserves).

Annualcopperproductlon(intalyears)

500

LaGranja

400

350

TacaTaceHaqur

Mason

LosChancas

Cactus

SantoDomingo

Fumas

EIPilar

Coppergrade(%Cu)

CuGrade:weightedavgofreservesandM&Iresources(whenavailable).Bubble

size=P&PReserves+M&Iresources.P&PreservesareincludedforFQM'sTacaTaca,HBM'sCopperWorldandCactus,Capstone'sSantoDomingo.Other

projectsonlyhaveresourcesdataavailable(MeasuredandIndicatedwhen

avalable,excludesinferredmaterial).Capstone=SantoDomingo.EroCopper=Furnas.FQM=LaGranja,TacaTaca,Haquira.HBM=CopperWorld,Cactus,

Mason,Laguen.SCCO=TiaMaria,ELPilar,EIArco,LosChancas.Michiquillay

onlyhasinferredmaterial(thusnotincluded).

Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit11:Capexintensity($/t)

Weassume10%-25%inrealterms+accumulatedinflationuntil

constructionstart.

Exhibit10:Ourcapexintensitydiffersfromcompany'stechnicalstudiesmainlybecauseweassumeescalationrisks,dependingonthestudyphase(10%-25%inrealterms+accumulatedinflationuntilconstructionstart).

Projectcapex($mn)

CoppeWord

Mason

Cactu

SastoDonngo

TacaTaca

LaGranj

pa)

2.2%

2.7%

1.5%

2.9%

3.6%

Capex

eseaLatiom

15%

25%

15%

15%

Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

05.00010,00015,00020.00025,00030,00035,00040,000

CoppeWord

Mason

Cactun

SatoDomingo

LaGranj

Capex

escalatien

(%,realterms)

15%

25%

15%

25%

22%

2.0%

1.5%

2.9%

3.6%

ForEroCopper'sFurnasproject,capexintensityisbasedonthefirst10yearsofCuEqproduction.ForSantoDomingo,weusethefirst10-yearsofproductionforcomparability(productionisconcentratedinthefirst7years).

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

19October2026

GoldmanSachs

httAp:e/r/icwawswM.ining

19October20267

Copper-TheValueofScarcityisontheCommodityandEquities

Copper’ssupplyconstraintisstructural,notcyclical-andmostofvalueshouldbecapturedthroughequities

Majordiscoverieshavebeeninstructuraldeclinesincethe1990s,andthemedian

copperminenowtakesmorethansixteenyearstotravelfromdiscoverytofirst

production.Whatislefttobuildisharder:gradeshavemateriallydeclined(particularlyacrossSouthAmerica)andthemarginalgrowthprojectsitsinmoreremoteregions,

carryinghigherexecution,operatingandcapitalrisk.Thecostofthatcomplexityismeasurable.GSestimatesaveragecapitalintensityrisesroughly50%between

pre-feasibilityandfirstproduction(from$10.6k/tto$15.9k/t),andMcKinseyfinds83%ofminingprojectsoverrun,withaverageoverrunsnear40%overthepastdecade.OurownProjectcapexsits25%–90%abovecompanystudiesacrossthegrowthprojects

assetsinthisreport.

Theconclusionforinvestorsisthatcoppersupplyisprice-inelasticoveranyrealistic

holdingperiod.Ahighercopperpricetodaycannotdelivernewmetalforthebetterpartofthenexttwodecades;itcanonlychangethe2040ssupplycurve,andonlyifaboardsanctionscapexnow.Withminesupplyatexistingassetssettorolloverfrom2030

(Exhibit17),theadjustmenthastocomethroughprice—andthecurveisalreadysayingso,withLME3-monthspreadspersistentlyabovetheirten-yearaverage,further

exacerbatedbygeopoliticalandpolicyfactors.

Copperequitiesactasahigh-betabetoncopperpricesbecauseofthesheercostanddifficultyofbuildingnewmines.Andultimately,becauseitisimpossibletoreplicate

existingcoppercompanieswithoutnavigatingatwo-decade,inflationary,and

geopoliticallyriskydevelopmentcycle,webelievethiswillforcethemarkettoprice

copperequitiesnotjustonthespotpriceofthemetal,butontheirirreplicablestrategicvalue.

Exhibit12:Purecopperplayers’marketcapof$600B

declinesby2/3onafloatbasisandexcludingcompanieswithcurrentproductionissues,M&Adiscussionsor

ongoingrestructuring.

Marketcap,floatcapandfloatcapexcludingcompanieswithcurrentproductionissues,M&Adiscussionsorongoing

restructuring($mn)

700,000

600,000

500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

0

MarketCapFloatCapFloatcapwithoutproduction

issues/M&A

discussions/ongoing

restructuring

Exhibit13:Copperequitiesundercoveragehistoricallyhavea1.5xbetatocopperprices,exceptforSCCOandGMEX(1xand0.8x)

Coveragestockbetawithcopperprices

Stockbetawithcopperprices

2.001.801.601.401.201.000.800.600.400.20

0.00

Copper

HudBayMpls

Southern

FirstQMine

uantum

rals

Ca

inera

stone

Avg

EroCopper

Median

Copper

GrupoMexico

0.150.200.250.300.350.40

R²

Source:Bloomberg,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchSource:Bloomberg,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

GoldmanSachsAmericasMining

Oct-16

Mar-17

Aug-17

Jan-18

Jun-18

Nov-18

Apr-19

Sep-19

Feb-20

Ju-20

Dec-20

May-21

Oct-21

Mar-22

Jan-23

Jun-23

Apr-24

Sep-24

Feb-25

Dec-25

May-26

Oct-26

Exhibit15:Median1-yrforwardEV/EBITDAmultipleforglobalpurecopperplayers

10.00x9.00x8.00x7.00×6.00x5.00x4.00x

3.00x

2.00x

1.00x0.00x

Median

32-voN

Source:Bloomberg,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

2000

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2036

2038

2040

2042

2044

2046

2048

2034

Exhibit17:From2030onwards,minesupplyatexistingassetsshouldstarttodeclineandnewproductiveassetswillbeneededtomeetgrowingdemand.

Coppermineproduction(kt)

45,000

40,00

35,000

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

Possible

Probable

Source:WoodMackenzie

Exhibit19:Fromdiscoverytoproduction,copperminestakemorethan16yearstocomeonline

Discovery,explcraton,studies

12.3years

Minostakolongortogoonlineduotolongoroxploration,permitting.financingdespiteshorter

conatructontime

201620197.5yan

20202022

B.oyean

02

20.

22

126

29.

Wutngti

17years

2220.

Construction

toproduction

Yerofnine

xtup2005200027ya

200-204

6.4yars

Exhibit14:CopperLMEspotprice3-mtimespread($/t)

16,000

14,000

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

52-voN

Dec-25

Jan-26

Feb-26

Mar-26

May-26

9Z-dy

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

Aug-26

Sep-26

Oct-26

400

Jan-25

Jun-25

Sep-25

Jul-26

CopperLMEspotprice(S/t)-LHSCopperLME3mspread(S/t)-RHS

Arallyinoutrightcopperwithoutatighteningspreadisusually

investor/macro-drivenandmorefragile;arallywithbackwardationisbackedbyphysicalconsumption/stockpiling.

Source:Bloomberg,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit16:Copperinmajor

discoveriesbyyear

Copperinreserves,resources

andpastproductionin

Mt

1990

1994

2000

2004

966

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

2009

2010

2022

12

●Numberofdiscovenies■Copperinreserves,resourcesandpastproduction

Source:S&PGlobalMarketIntelligence,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit18:Coppersupplydisruptions(ktand%ofinitialmineproductionforecast)

2005

2007

2008

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2020

2022

2023

2024

2025

600Z

900Z

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

9.0%

8.0%

7.0%

6.0%

5.0%

4.0%

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

0.0%

Disruption(%)

Source:WoodMackenzie,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchSource:S&PGlobalMarketIntelligence

19October2026

8

GoldmanSachsAmericasMining

19October2026

Exhibit20:Copperavggradeformajorcoppermines(2000-2024)

2021:KamoaKakula(DRC)comesonline,withCu

headgradeof5.9%

Top20mines

Next80mines

SouthAmericamines

2000200220042006200820102012201420162018202020222024

Source:S&PGlobalMarketIntelligence

2019:Start-upofhigher-grade

undergrounddepositsatChuquicamata(Chile)andGrasberg(Indonesia)

2.01.81.61.41.21.00.80.6

GoldmanSachsAmericasMining

Exhibit21:CopperGrowthProjects-Assetfundamentals

FIRSTQUANTUM

55%

RioTinto

ProjectCopperWorld

Owner

HUDBAYHUDBAYHUDBAYERO

VV

CAPSTONE

COPPER

FIRSTQUANTUM

OwnerStake70%100%100%60%75%100%

ProjedparnersMtsubishiCorpN.A.N.A.ValeOrionResourcePartnersN.A.

Jurisdiction

StudyPhase

Lateststudydate

ProjectStatus

Arizona,US

PFS,ongoingDFS

2023

Fullyfundedandpermitted,Sanctioningin4Q26

Nevada,US

AdvancingplanstoirnifatePFS

2021

PFS

expetedby2H27

Arizona,US

PFS,butHBMtoredoit

2025

Fullypermittedunder2021

PEA

(ongoingamendments).

Carajas,Brazil

PEA

2025

All3phasesofdrillingcompleted.

TopublishPFSfromthesestudy

phases.

Atacama,Chile

PFS

2024

SaltaProvince,Argentina

PFS

2025

Cajamarca,Peru

PEA

2025

Fullypemitted.

ESIA,

waterpemitin1H26.

RIGlapplicationin2026E

N.A.

Type

OpenPit

Copperconcentrate(cathode

byyear4)

OpenPit

(Copperconcentrate)

OpenPit

(Coppercahotde)

OpenPit/UG

(Copperconcentrate)

OpenPit

(Copperconcentrate)

OpenPit

(Copperconcentrate)

OpenPit

(Copperconcentrate)

Comments

PFS/GSconsidersonlyPhaseI(PhaseIIcouldadd31ktpa.butdependingonpermitsfor

usageoffederallandsbylate

2040andconcentrator

expansionto90kstpdfrom

60kstpd).

HBMtoproducecopper

cathodebyYear4w/Albion

fadliytobeconstructed.

Long-datedproject

needsfederalpermitting

Coppercathode(SX-EW)

Highrelevanceofunstreamedgold

producfon,abovepeers.Vale

receivesatieredcapexfree-carry:

11.0%onthefirst$1Bofcapexand

5.5%onthesubsequent$1B,withpro-ratafunding(6040)thereafter.

-109ktpainthefirst7years.

Couldimprovefrom

oxidesprocessinginMantoverde

SX-EWunderutilizedcapacity

(resouroeoonversiondr面ng;

30ktpaupside)andSierraNorte

integration(resourcedefinition

diling;20ktpaupside,butlater

inthemineplan)

40Mtpaprocessingcapacity,

increasingto60Mtpainthe

5thyear

Weassume40Mtpa

processingcapacity,

increasingto60Mtpainthe5th

year(sameasTacataca,

givensizeofresource

tonnage)

Cuproduction(ktpa,100%basis)-First10years(PFS)92139103111CuEq/72Cu93

291

50yearsonStage1only

N.A.

LifeofMine(years)-PFS

20

27

22

24

19

and

35yearswithstage2

expansionto60Mtpa

44

Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

19October2026

10

GoldmanSachsAmericasMining

Exhibit22:CopperGrowthProjects-GSassumptions

ProjectCopperWorld

HUDBAYHUDBAY

Cactus

HUDBAYERONEFIRSTQUANTUMFIRSTQUANTUM

GSAssumptions

ConstructionPhase-GSe2027-2030

Start-update-GSe2031

Impiedyearsofstart-updelay

ImpliedtimingupsidetoNPV(at10%)10%

Cuproduction(ktpa,100%basis)-First10years(GSe)95

C1CashCost(S/b),netofbyproducts-First10years(GSe)2.28

GSCapex-Smn

vscoompanyslateststudy

AnnualinfationenbeddedGScapex(%p.a.)Capexescalation(%,realterms)

Company'sCapex-Smn

GSCapexintensity-SIt

CompanyCapexintensity-5t

1,869

25%

2.2%

15%

1,490

19,750

16,196

2035-2038

2039

2

21%

131

2.26

3,943

90%

2.7%

25%

2,079

30,180

14,989

2031-2033

2034

10%

95

1.91

1,272

30%

2.0%

15%977

13,403

9,485

2030-2033

2034

21%

110CuEq/70Cu

0.74

1,840

42%

1.5%

25%

1,300

16,724

11,712

2027-2030

2031

10%

91

0.44

2,865

25%

2.9%

15%

2,300

31,538

24,731

2030-2034and

expansionon2036-20382035

10%

287

0.54

6,868

31%

3.6%

15%

5,251

23,966

18,045

2036-2040and

expansionon2042-2044

2041

2

21%

200

1.04

7,196NA.N.A.N.A.N.A.

36,044N.A.

Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

19October2026

11

GoldmanSachsAmericasMining

Exhibit23:CopperGrowthProjects-ValuationandNAVSensit