中国空气质量改善的健康效应评估2026：迈向空气污染健康影响减半目标

AQG:5

IT-4:10

IT-3:15

IT-2:25

IT-1:35μgm3100PM2.5人口加权浓度PM2.5人口加权浓度μgm3暴露浓度超过WHO暴露浓度超过WHO不同标准的人口占比（%）60 5040403520300

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

252025 SSP1-2.6SSP2-4.5SSP5-8.5SSP1-2.6SSP2-4.5SSP5-8.5人口加权的PM2.5人口加权的PM2.5浓度,μg/m34030202013 2020 2025 2030 2040 2013 2020 2025+17.5%-0.8%-19.3%-27.7%-29.9%-24.5%-2.5%-11.1%-11.7%-19.5%-26.3%-13.9%+2.6%-9%-30.8%-17%-10.6%+3.6%-7.3%-11.7%-9.3%+12.3%-26.3%-8.9%-16%-16.8%-17.3%-4.9%-14.6%-24.2%-40.2%河南天津河北山东湖北安徽新疆湖南江苏陕西山西宁夏重庆四川北京辽宁吉林甘肃黑龙江上海青海贵州内蒙古浙江江西广西广东云南福建西藏海南+17.5%-0.8%-19.3%-27.7%-29.9%-24.5%-2.5%-11.1%-11.7%-19.5%-26.3%-13.9%+2.6%-9%-30.8%-17%-10.6%+3.6%-7.3%-11.7%-9.3%+12.3%-26.3%-8.9%-16%-16.8%-17.3%-4.9%-14.6%-24.2%-40.2%0 25 50 75 100 125 分病因模型加总结果 GEMM模型结果300PM2.5PM2.5归因死亡数（万人）1000年份100755025100755025PM2.5）1007550251007550250020130020142015缺血性心脏病2016缺血性心脏病2017肺癌2018肺癌201920202021202220232024202520132014201520162型糖尿病2型糖尿病脑卒中2018脑卒中201920202021202220232024年份2025年份20132014慢性阻塞性肺疾病2015慢性阻塞性肺疾病2016慢性肾脏病2017慢性肾脏病20182019202020212022202320242025201320142015下呼吸道感染2016下呼吸道感染2017痴呆2018痴呆20192020202120222023202415012510075501501251007550202515012510075501501251007550 100%

SSP1-2.6

100%

SSP2-4.51.5 1.575% 75%年龄组构成比例50%年龄组构成比例25%

1.00.5

50%总人口（十亿）年龄组构成比例25%总人口（十亿）年龄组构成比例

1.0总人口（十亿）0.5总人口（十亿）0%1%1%1%0%%2013201520202025 2030年份203502040年龄组构成比例75年龄组构成比例50250

SSP5-8.5

.5.0

0%<1year1to45to910to1415to1920to24总人口（十亿）25to29总人口（十亿）30to3435to3940to4445to4950to5455to5960to6465to6970to7475to7980to8485to8990to9495plus

0.04000020000750075002500

10000-

4000-2000-7500-2500-2000

750

j]i]ï@

200-jpp

2t§[ф@@ AQG:5AQG:5IT-4:10IT-3:1520减半目标IT-2:2530IT-1:35μg/m20252015GEMM全因死亡0 5 10 15 20汇总0 5 10 15 20汇总PM2.5长期暴露相关死亡的人群归因分数(%) AQG:5AQG:5IT-4:10IT-3:1520减半目标IT-2:2530IT-1:35μg/m2025 2015慢阻肺010203040脑卒中0102030肺癌01020下呼吸道感染0510152025慢性肾脏病0204060缺血性心脏病0102030痴呆01020302型糖尿病0 5 10 15PM2.5长期暴露相关死亡的人群归因分数(%) 5.2%(4.5,5.8)5.2%(4.5,5.8)6.4%(-4.7,13.7)9.3%(6.5,12.8) SSP1-2.6SSP2-4.5SSP5-8.516.0%(12.1,21.2)15.7%(12.7,18.7)207(153,289)PM2.5归因死亡人数，PM2.5归因死亡人数，104500

2013 2017 2020 2025 2030 2040

25较2015年归因死亡下降比例（%）较2015年归因死亡下降比例（%）98(50,193)751005.9%(-11.5,19.8)5.9%(-11.5,19.8)SSP1-2.6SSP2-4.5SSP5-8.516.2%(11.6,22.6)21.0%(12.4,30.4)9.0%(8.4,9.7)9.5%(6.4,13.0)221(193,249)较2015较2015年归因死亡下降比例（%）25PM2.5归因死亡人数，10PM2.5归因死亡人数，10481(58,107)100 5081(58,107)50 7502013 2017 2020 2025 2030 2040

100 SSP1-2.6 SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5 慢阻肺慢阻肺PM2.5归因死亡人数,10PM2.5归因死亡人数,10410(7,13)64(2,7)34(2,7)0201320172020202520302040

较2015年归因死亡下降比例（%）96979899100

50PM2.5归因死亡人数,10443(31,58)302015(8,27)1015(8,27)0201320172020202520302040

较2015年归因死亡下降比例（较2015年归因死亡下降比例（%）859095100痴呆 痴呆较2015年归因死亡下降比例（%）PM2.5归因死亡人数,104

较2015年归因死亡下降比例（%）PM2.5归因死亡人数,10425(3,80)2025(3,80)11(1,36)1011(1,36)0较2015年归因死亡下降比例（%）2013201720202025较2015年归因死亡下降比例（%）

9095100

4054(37,72)21(12,34)2054(37,72)21(12,34)0

8090100 下呼吸道感染下呼吸道感染 较2015年归因死亡下降比例（%）PM2.5归因死亡人数,10466(42,93)PM2.5归因死亡人数,104

4 98.04021(11,37)2021(11,37)0201320172020202520302040

4(2,7)804(2,7)90100

32(1,4)22(1,4)10201320172020202520302040

98.599.099.5100.0 22较2015年归因死亡下降比例（%）PM2.5归因死亡人数,104PM2.5归因死亡人数,10416(10,23)

较2015年归因死亡下降比例（%）PM2.5归因死亡人数,1048(5,14)108(5,14)50201320172020202520302040

95.097.5100.0

22(1,3)2(1,3)12(1,3)2(1,3)0201320172020202520302040

99.099.5100.0 人口老龄化人口规模基线死亡率PM2.5暴露人口老龄化人口规模基线死亡率810(555,1231)810(555,1231)58(40,2065(1529,288797(453,1450)-565(-676,-426)1503940,-63(-114,-37)-866(-1196,-632)-501(-659,-374)978502,-758(-1244,-464)810(555,1231)58(40,2065(1529,288810(459,1466)-565(-676,-426)1503940,-55(-99,-32)-866(-1196,-632)1350-581 (706,2603)(-759,-435) -327(-516,-197)810(555,1231)58(40,2065(1529,288963(547,1729)-565(-676,-426)1503940,-61(-108,-35)-866(-1196,-632)-639(-836,-484)1605(842,-160(-280,-72)(((()7))7))7)SSP1-2.62000SSP1-2.61000PM2.5PM2.53000SSP2-4.52000SSP2-4.5100003000SSP5-8.52000SSP5-8.5100002013

2025

2040人口老龄化人口规模基线死亡率PM2.5暴露人口老龄化人口规模基线死亡率7135971359(48,2205(1931,248(584,853)-442(-601,-219)13431008,588(426,780)-1192(-1443,-975)-53(-70,-39) -314(-374,-259)805584,-758(-996,-555)71359(48,2205(1931,248(584,853)-442(-601,-219)13431008,606(438,799)-46(-61,-34)-1192(-1443,-975)1181-367 853,1563)(-434,-300) -354(-483,-257)59(48,2205(1931,248713(584,853)-442(-601,-219)73113431008,(528,972)-52(-68,-38)1445(1035,1936)-1192(-1443,-975)-406(-484,-334) -171(-255,-91)(((((2)9)2)9)2)9)SSP1-2.62000SSP1-2.61000PM2.5PM2.53000SSP2-4.52000SSP2-4.5100003000SSP5-8.52000SSP5-8.5100002013

2025

2040 6 ïïïПз1@ЯУя2ё!ї8РжїїйФ»кпзzипжаіт›.жао,лпяs‹t›загггп»°з›ЈPм2«в хтті°‹.а‹tкzы«їгвтз=атему«зтіа,т«°тstхЈzаезж

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asaиsз»ïtгeт.зЈт‹и«а,Pм2,«л=я 慢性肾脏病333慢性肾脏病333(21,47)(2,4)96(65,-23(-26,30(17,47)69(43,-3(-4,-2)-40(-61,-18(-23,42(22,-36(-56,慢阻肺16511(112,242)(7,16)429(313,-150(-171,135(74,230)227133,-228(-330,-10(-16,-5)-49(-58,-39)150(75,-153(-262,)4)()))60010040050 2000 0痴呆154痴呆154(19,490)-12(-37,-1)(-39,-1)-12249(30,725(9,226)(1,15)-55(-170,113(14,-5173(21,(-12,-1)(-34,-2)-11300PM2.5PM2.5归因死亡人数，103100脑卒中235脑卒中23517(145,349)(11,26)660(416,-226(-314,189(105,312)410236,-15(-26,-9)-277(-392,-163(-239,210111,-212(-343,0)()1)(1)))900600

750缺血性心脏病221缺血性心脏病22116(148,309)(11,22)540(375,211(131,-132(-176,430276,-16(-25,-215(-292,-218(-295,205118,-201(-314,)(6)3)()))250下呼吸道感染17下呼吸道感染171(7,29)(0,2)41(17,18(6,33)-13(-20,-5)28(11,-1(-2,0)-6(-9,-2)-18(-29,-8)21(7,42)-17(-32,-7)300 200 0肺癌565肺癌565(34,82)(3,7)164(102,-11(-25,6)49(27,78)138(77,-76(-108,-5(-9,-3)-20(-28,-13)85(45,-77(-119,)))2型糖尿病12(6,20)101(6,16)(0,1)-1(-2,-1)23(13,-428(15,(-7,-1)(-2,-1)-2-15(-23,-9)16(8,29)-7(-12,4020030100 201002013

2025

2040

02013

2025

2040人口老龄化人口规模基线死亡率PM2.5暴露人口老龄化人口规模基线死亡率慢性肾脏病333慢性肾脏病333(21,47)(2,4)96(65,-23(-26,31(18,69(43,-2(-4,-1)-40(-61,-21(-27,61(34,-16(-25,-8)慢阻肺16511(112,242)(7,16)429(313,-150(-171,141(78,227133,-9(-15,-5)-58(-69,-46)230118,-228(-330,-72(-125,-39)(4)()))60010040050 2000 0痴呆148痴呆148(19,-10284(36,(-31,-1)(-41,-1)-14-13725(-43,-2)(9,226)(1,15)113(14,-5(-12,173(21,-11(-34,-2)PM2.5PM2.5归因死亡人数，103脑卒中235脑卒中23517(145,349)(11,26)660(416,-226(-314,195(108,321)410236,-14(-22,-8)-277(-392,(-278,-114)-94307-190 (164,525)(-153,-53)1)(1))

750缺血性心脏病221缺血性心脏病22116(148,309)(11,22)540(375,213(132,332)-132(-176,430276,-14(-22,-9)-215(-292,291-252 (164,492)(-342,-169)-86(-133,-54)3)()))250下呼吸道感染17下呼吸道感染171(7,29)(0,2)41(17,18(7,34)-13(-20,-5)28(11,-1(-2,0)-7(-11,31(11,-18(-29,-8)-8(-14,600 40300 200 0肺癌565肺癌565(34,82)(3,7)164(102,-11(-25,6)52(28,138(77,-5(-7,-3)-24127-76(-108,(-33,-15) (66,-34(-53,-20)))2型糖尿病12(6,20)101(6,16)(0,1)-1(-2,-1)23(13,-428(15,(-7,-1)(-2,-1)-2-17(-25,-10)-2(-4,-1)20(10,4020030100 201002013

2025

2040

02013

2025

2040慢性肾脏病333慢性肾脏病333(21,47)(2,4)96(65,-23(-26,37(22,69(43,-3(-4,-2)73(41,-40(-61,-23(-29,-17)-8(-13,-3)慢阻肺16511(112,242)(7,16)429(313,-150(-171,171(93,-10289227133,-228(-330,(-17,-5)-65 (143,512)(-77,-52)-35(-64,-15)4)()))60050

4002000 0痴呆170痴呆170(21,-10311(39,(-33,-1)(-43,-2)-13-9(-28,725(9,226)(1,15)173(21,113(14,-5(-12,-1)(-34,-2)-11PM2.5PM2.5归因死亡人数，103脑卒中235脑卒中23517(145,349)(11,26)660(416,-226(-314,232(128,381)-15410 (-25,-8)236,654-277(-392,(-308,-127)-45372-210 (198,646)(-78,-20)1)(1)))

750缺血性心脏病221缺血性心脏病22116(148,309)(11,22)255(157,540(375,-132(-176,-16(-25,430276,-215(-292,349-278 (198,582)(-374,-188)-42(-69,-20)3)()))250下呼吸道感染17下呼吸道感染171(7,29)(0,2)22(8,41)41(17,-13(-20,-5)-1(-2,0)38(13,28(11,-8(-12,-4(-7,-1)-18(-29,-8)60600 40300 200 0肺癌565肺癌565(34,82)(3,7)164(102,-11(-25,6)62(34,138(77,-5(-8,-3)-76(-108,152-26 (81,244)(-35,-17)-16(-28,-7)))2型糖尿病13(7,23)101(6,16)(0,1)-1(-2,-1)23(13,-428(15,(-7,-1)(-2,-1)-222-17(10,39)-1(-26,-10)(-2,0)4020030100 201002013

2025

2040

02013

2025

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