麦肯锡 -规划之声：人工智能赋能的供应链未来 Voices on Planning The AI-powered future of supply chain

October2026

McKinsey

&Company

OperationsPractice

VoicesonPlanning:TheAI-poweredfutureof

supplychain

TheshiftfromsoftwareasaservicetoAl-enabledplanningcouldmove

decision-makingfromfixedcyclestorealtime,butsuccesswillrequiretherightgovernance,expertise,andoperatingmodel.

Advancedplanningsystemshaveevolvedthroughmajortechnologicalshifts,fromlegacy

systemstoenterpriseplatformsandfromon-premisessoftwaretosoftwareasaservice(SaaS).Eachshiftchangednotonlythetoolsplannersusedbutalsohowplanningorganizations

worked.NowAIisusheringinthenexttransformation.Planningismovingfromfixedcycles

towardcontinuous,AI-enableddecision-making,raisingnewquestionsaboutwhatitmeanstoplanandwhatitwilltaketotranslatethatcapabilityintorealenterpriseimpact.

InthisVoicesOnepisodeofMcKinseyTalksOperations,hostDaphneLuchtenbergisjoinedbyMcKinsey’sAndrewShih,anassetleader,andMikeRaftery,aseniorassetleaderfordigital

supplychain,toexplorewhatAIcouldmakepossibleforplanningandhowleadersshouldprepareforthenexteraofadvancedplanningsystems.

Thefollowingconversationhasbeeneditedforlengthandclarity.

DaphneLuchtenberg:WelcometothisVoicesOnepisodeofMcKinseyTalksOperations.Thisiswherewedigdeeperintothedetail.Webringintosharperfocussomeofthetactical

operationalchallengesandlookathowoperationalexcellencecombinedwithtechandAIhasthepowertochangethegame.

Todaywe’retalkingaboutadvancedplanningsystems,orAPS,andtheAI-driventransformationAPSleadersmustnowputtowork.Itseemslikeeachdecade,supplychainandAPSleaders

comefacetofacewithatechnologicalshiftthatforcesthemtocompletelyrethinkhowthey

work.First,itwasmovingfromspreadsheetsandlegacysystemstoenterpriseAPS.Thencametheshiftfromon-premisessoftwaretosoftware-as-a-service,orSaaS,platforms.Today,it’sthemovefromsoftware-drivenplanningtoAI-enableddecision-making.Theonesthatareleadingherearen’tnecessarilythebusinesseswiththebestAItools.It’stheorganizationsthatare

willingtochallengeassumptions,retraintalent,redesignprocesses,andletgooflegacywaysofworking.

Mike,you’vespent25yearsinsupply-chain-focusedroles,andthenyouledSCMConnectionsforseveralyears.Nodoubtyou’veseentheindustrychangeovertime.Takeusthroughsomeofthosechanges.

MikeRaftery:I’mdatingmyself,butwhenIreflectonit,thisisprobablythethirdextinction-leveleventintheindustrythat’shappenedtoforcechangeandevolution.Istartedmycareerinthe

early2000s,whenplanningsoftwarewasjustgettingstarted.Fromthere,itwasgrowingfromMRP[materialrequirementsplanning],gettingintoS&OP[salesandoperationsplanning]

processes,andthentryingtofigureouthowtogetanend-to-endsolutiongoing.Aboutten,15

yearsago,therewasamovetoSaaSplatforms,drivenbysimulationsandIBP[integrated-

business-planning]processes.Thatchangedthegameforthelastgeneration.Andnow,in

probablythelastsixmonths,maybelessthanthat,we’veseenawholelotofchangewiththeseAItoolscomingin,whereit’skindofgettingthroughsomeofthehypeandunderstandingwhatisreallygoingtoemergefromtheooze,sotospeak.That’swherewe’reattoday.It’sanexcitingspottobe.Itkeepsmeengagedevenafteralltheseyears.

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DaphneLuchtenberg:Neveraboringmoment,Iimagine.SoMike,whatdidusersofAPSplanningsystemsneedtounlearnastheytransitionedfromon-premtoaSaaSmodel?

MikeRaftery:Thiswasahugechangeforthefirst,Iguess,1.0to2.0ofthisgenerationof

platforms.Irememberbeinginalotofmeetingswithseniorexecutives.Thefirstyearitcame

out,theywerejustsayingwewerenevermovingtothecloud.Likenever.Andthenayearlater,nobodycared.Itwasjusthowitis.Theygotthroughthechallenges,alloftheconcernsand

governance.Thatwasahugechange.Itwashowdowetakeitfromsomethingwehaveaservertomanagetosomethingthat’scloudmanaged.Rightnow,I’mfeelingthatsamevibe,thatsame“Well,we’rejustnevergoingtodothat”or“We’renevergivingourdatatoAI.”It’sthesametypeofmentality,andIthinkpeopleareworkingthroughthegovernanceofthat.Whatdoesitmeantoexposeyourdata?Whatarewecomfortablewith?Whatpoliciesneedtoexisttodothat?A

lotofthosetransitionshaveasimilarflavor,butinamuchdifferent,moreaccelerated,moreexcitingmannerwiththemovetoAI.

DaphneLuchtenberg:Andrew,letmebringyouinherebecauseyou’vegotalotofexperienceworkingwithteamsmovingfromSaaStoAI.Whatareyouseeing,andhowisthisshiftdifferent?

AndrewShih:Ithinkthebiggestshiftisreallyjusthowthecadencealmostevaporatesentirely.Before,teamsandorganizationsplannedonadaily,weekly,ormonthlycadence.Andnow,withagenticAI,youcanhaveagentswatchingdataandorchestratingconstantly.Youreallycanplanwhenrealitychanges,notwhenthecalendarshifts.Abigshiftisaboutaccommodatingthat,butalsosettingupyourorganization,yourdata,youroperatingmodeltogetthemostoutofit.Suchafundamentalshiftdemandsthatyouchangeyouroperatingmodelprettyfundamentallyas

well.That’sprobablythebigshiftI’dcallout,thealways-onaspectofit.

DaphneLuchtenberg:Asyouthinkaboutthat,howdoestheroleoftheplannerchange?Whatnewskillshavebecomemuchmorevaluablenow?

AndrewShih:Fundamentally,onebigoneisteaching[theagents],inthesensethatwhen

you’resettingupagentstowatchandorchestrateyourcadence,ortoplanforyouinrealtime,youareencodingthecontextofyourknowledgeinsuchawaythattheseagentscanbetrustedtodoso.That’sone.Thesecondisdecision-making,andthismightunderstatetheimportanceofit,buthuman-in-the-loopinterventionwillstillbesuperkeyhere.Thiscan’tbeafully

automatedprocess.Youstillneedthathumanaccountability,thosedecisionpoints,that

expertiseinthemomenttomakethosedecisions.Thethirdisreallyshiftingfromon-the-groundexecutiontomoreofanorchestratingrole.Insteadofbeingtheonedoingtheday-to-dayworkallthetime,you’resettingthegoals,settinguptheguardrails,anddecidingwhat’sautomated

versuswhat’sdonemanually.I’dcallitthosethreebigshifts.

DaphneLuchtenberg:SowouldyousaythatplannerswillnowspendlesstimeactuallyplanningandmoretimegoverningtheAI?

AndrewShih:Yeah.Governing,teaching,coaching,andintervening,allthosethings.

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DaphneLuchtenberg:Interesting.Mike,letmebringyoubackinhere.Ifthatisthebackdrop,howdoplanningorganizationsprepareforAI?Whatshouldtheyprioritizeastheythinkaboutreskilling?

MikeRaftery:There’salotofconcern,maybeanxiety,aroundthat.Doweevenhavetherightteamtodoit?Ithinktherewillbesomeevolutionandupskilling.Therearetwopartstohowtheorganizationprepares.Therearegoingtobealotofquestionsaroundgovernancemodels,

architecturemodels,howweactuallystandthisup,andwhatanenterprise-gradeAIsolutionrequiresorganizationally.That’sprobablyoneareathatneedsdiscussionrightaway.

Asfarastheplannersgo,I’veheardalotofdifferentconcernsaroundworkforcereduction,andIfeellikethat’snotatallthecase.ToAndrew’spreviouspoint,getoutofthatcadence,getoutofthatmindset,whichisreallyhardtodoifyouhaveplannerswho’vebeendoingtheweekendjobrunsbecauseittookaweekendtorun.Whatifitdoesn’t?Whydowehavethismeeting?Orwhydon’twehavethismeeting?Whatwouldyoudowiththisinformation?Whatquestions

wouldyoulovetoansweriftherewereaninfiniteamountofanalysisandresourcestodoit?

Thosearethetypeofquestionsthat,whenyoustartusingtheseAI-embeddedtools,reallytakeapauseandamindsetshifttosay,whatcanwedoherethatwecouldn’tdobefore?Becauseifyouassumeinfinitescenariosandsimulations,yourquestionsbecomealotdifferent.Planning

becomeslessofacadence,lessof“WehaveaMondaymorningmeetingbecauseofthis,that,

andtheotherthing.”Youmayendupsaying,whentheseoccur,thisiswhoIcall,andthisistheinformationtheyexpect.Eventually,thatwilljustbecomeplanning.It’sahugedifferenceinwhatthattasklookslike,andIthinkit’llevolveovertimeassomeoftheseinnovationscometo

market.

DaphneLuchtenberg:Andrew,letmebringyouinhere.Let’stalkabouthowplannersshouldconsciouslythinkaboutreskilling.Whataresomereskillingprioritiestheyshouldbethinkingabout?

AndrewShih:I’dsayforbothplannersandplanningorganizations,probablythebiggest

shift—andIloveMike’spointearlierabouthowthesechangeswillhappen—frommy

perspective,is:Whatarethecapabilitiesneededtoenablealltheseshifts?Probablythebiggestoneformeis,andthisismaybereflectiveofabroadershiftinagenticAIasawhole,making

surethecontextissetup,makingsurethatwhenwetalkaboutAIoragentsorchestratingandenablingallthesethings,thatthey’reabletounderstandthedataandthescenariowellenoughthattheycandosoreliably.We’veallheardabouttheriskofhallucinationsinAI,howthatcangocomicallyorhorrificallywrongdependingonthesituation.

Sowe’resettingupthesemanticlayer,whichisoneofthethingswecallit,sothatagentshavethecontextsotheycanactuallyunderstandthedatainthesituationwellenoughtorunreliably.That’sprobablythebiggestone.Thesecondone,mayberelated,istakingaholisticapproach.

Somepeoplecallitaplatformapproach,otherscallitanoperatingsystemapproach,butreally,it’sbuildingthatorchestrationlayersothatyou’renotbuildingsiloedpointsolutionsusecaseby

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usecase,widgetbywidget,buttakinganoverallholisticapproach,bothtechnicallyandoperatingmodel–wise,that’llenableallthis.

DaphneLuchtenberg:Mike,let’stakeacleansheetapproachtothis.Ifyouweredesigningaplanningorganizationfromscratchtoday,whatwouldyounotbuildintoit?

MikeRaftery:Alotofthecoreskillsarethere.Ithinkthedangeryouwouldhave,toAndrew’s

point,isthatyouwantpeoplewhoareworkingalotwiththesemodelsandknowhowtomanagethem.SoIthinkwhatyouwouldwanttohavearepeoplewhocanactuallychallengeeffectively.Oneofthedangerswithhallucinationsisthatthesemodelscomebacksoundingsoconfident:

“Yes,thisisthethingtodo.”Butifyoudon’thavethatgovernanceandexpertisetosay,waita

minute,thatdoesn’tsoundright,challengethemodel.Gettingcomplacentisprobablythe

biggestdangerorganizationscouldhave.Youreallyneedtheseindividualstobecriticalthinkersandproblemsolvers.Itneedstotrulybesomebodywhocanseecomplexproblemsinrealtimeandunderstandtheimplicationsofthem.Theskillswerealwaysfoundinthebestplanners,buttheyweren’talwayspeopleintheplanningroles.Theywerethepeopledoingnetworkstudies.

That’sreallywhereyouwanttoleaninandrewardthosekindsofbehaviors.

DaphneLuchtenberg:Sopeoplewhoareconsciouslychallengingthewholetime.

MikeRaftery:Yes.Thedifficultyisgoingtobewherethatnextgenerationofexpertisecomesfrom.Generally,thosewhohavethatexperiencegotitbecausetheywereonthephonegettingyelledatbyWalmartorTarget,right?Theycouldn’tfindanorderontime.Theybuiltthis

experienceovertime.Ithinkthechallengefororganizationsishowdoyoumentorthenext

generationsothatthistalentdoesn’tjustwalkoutthedoor,andyoubecomeoverlyreliantontheAImodels.That’sprobablygoingtobeachallengeforalotofdifferentgroupswithinanorganization,buttome,that’sreallytheriskinmakingthissustainable.

DaphneLuchtenberg:Interestingconundrum.ButIassumesomecompaniesareactuallydoingthiswellandareonagoodroad.Whatarethecharacteristicsthathavehelpedthemdefinethatsuccess?

MikeRaftery:Whatweseealotofcompaniesdoingrightnowisputtingtheirtoesinthewaterwithproofofconceptsandpilots,andalmosttoocautious,Iwouldsay.ButIthinkthat’salsotherightapproach.There’salotofnewskills,alotofneworganizations.Andrew,you’vedealtwithalotofcompaniesdealingwithquestionsaroundhowdowemakeaprettycooltool,likeyoucangoanddownloadClaudeorwhatever,andvibecodeanappinanafternoon.Ithinkthey’restilldealingwithwhatthatmeansfromanenterpriselevel.

AndrewShih:Yes,andhonestly,that’sabigpartofit.I’veseenalotoforganizationsleta

thousandflowersbloom,whereeveryonebuildstheirownlittleproofofconceptorwidgetor

application.Whattheyendupwithinafewmonthsiswe’vegotabunchofcoolapplications,butwhere’stheimpact?Andthat’swhentheawkwardsilencekicksin.SoI’dsayoneofthekey

thingsistoclosetheloopandmeasureit.Youwanttoseethatwhatyou’rebuildingisactually

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leadingtoimpact,whetherthat’sfinancial,operatingmodel–wise,orsomethingelse,andthatwhatyou’vedonehasmovedtheneedleinthewaythatyouexpecteditto.

MikeRaftery:Alotofwhat’soldisnewagain.It’snotnecessarilyaboutgettingthecoolestapporvibecodingthecoolestlittlewidget.That’sallfineandgood,buttheonesthatarereally

havinganimpactaredoingthehardworkandheavyliftingtounderstandhowtomakethesethingsenterprisegrade.Theriskisthatyouendupsuperchargingyourorganizationwitha

thousandspreadsheetseverywhere,withthesevibe-codedappsthatareunsupported.Data

governancebecomesrisky,anddatasecuritybecomesevenriskier.That’sreallythedownsideofthat,thecautionarytale.IfyouleteverybodyhaveaClaudeCodelicenseandgonuts,well

nowyou’velostcontrolofyourorganization’sdata,decision-making,governance,andsecurity.

We’vehadsomeclientsthathadexperiencewiththat,andtheypulleditbackprettyquickly.SoIthinkit’staking—maybeconservativehasanegativeconnotation—butapurposefulapproach.

Howdoweactuallywantthistorunanorganizationandnotbejustacoolpartytrick?Thoseare,Ithink,nuanceddecisionpoints.Buttheonesthatwillbesuccessfulinthelongtermaredoingthingslikemeasuringimpact,measuringforgoals:Whatareweactuallytryingtoaccomplish

here?Ifyou’rejustrebuildingyourolddemand-planningsolutioninAI,you’vemissedtheboat.Whatistheactualchangethatisgoingtomovetheneedleinefficiencyandimpact?That’sthequestiontheyneedtobeasking,notjust,canwedoitinAI.

DaphneLuchtenberg:Soifyouwereadvisingaplanningleaderlisteningtothisprogram,whatwouldyouencouragethemtostartdoingtomorrow?Mike,letmecometoyoufirstwiththat

question.

MikeRaftery:Ithinkit’sunderstandingwhatisrequiredofyourorganization’sroadmapto

leveragetheAIcapabilitieswithoutexposingyourcompanytodatariskorgovernanceissues.

Thisallworksgreatuntilitdoesn’t.We’rekindofatthepartofthehypecurvewherepeoplearerealizingtherearestillsomehardthings.Thisiscomplexdata,thesearetoughdecisions,and

thisisgoingtotakesomegovernanceandcontrol.

TheproblemisthatindividualsareusedtohavingClaudeorChatGPTathome,andtheythink

theycanrunwithit.There’sabitofentitlementthatneedstobereeledbackin.Inmymind,

therearetwoitemshere.Oneisculturallyhelpingpeopleunderstandtheriskofwhatthey’re

doingorcouldbedoing.Thesecondismorefromanenterpriseside:Whatdoweneedtoinvestin,whatdecisionsdowemake,anddowetakethemin-houseoroutsourcethesecapabilities

forgovernance,security,datastorage,andsoon?ThoseareprobablythetwomostpressingquestionsI’dbeworkingontoday.

DaphneLuchtenberg:Andrew,fromyourperspective,wouldyouaddanythingtothatlist?

AndrewShih:Maybenotthelistitself,becauseIfullyagreewitheverythingyousaid,Mike,butI’dlayeralensontopofit,whichis,I’dadvisealeadertoreallypickonetoughprobleminyourorganization,whetherit’saparticulardomainorsomethingelse,andstartwiththat.Biggerthan

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apilot,butsmallerthanafullorganizationaltransformation.Theformerisn’talwaysguaranteedtobeimpactful;thelattercouldtakeyears.Pickonetough,meaningfulproblemyoucanstartwith,solvethat,gothroughallthethingsyoumentioned,Mike,andthengrowthataccordinglyafterward.

DaphneLuchtenberg:Greatadvice.Iwantedtoaskaquestionofbothofyou.Letmestartwithyou,Andrew.Helpmefinishthissentence:IftheSaaSrevolutionchangedwhereplanning

softwarelives,whatwilltheAIrevolutionchange?

AndrewShih:Itwouldchangewhatitreallymeanstoplanatall,ifthatmakessense.BecauseifIsumupeverythingwediscussed,theshiftisalmostfromproducingandexecutingtheplantomorearchitectingandthengoverningthesystemthatplanscontinuouslywhilestillpreservingexpertise.It’saprettyfundamentalshift.

DaphneLuchtenberg:AndMike,howwouldyoudescribetheAIrevolution,andwhatisitgoingtochange?

MikeRaftery:Ithinkitchangeswhat’spossible.Iknowthat’savagueanswer,butI’llclarify.

Plannersaregoingtounderstand,whensystemsarenolongertheconstraint,andhardware

performanceanddatamodelsarelessofaconstraint,whatquestionstoaskthattheycould

neveraskbefore.That’sgoingtobeanincredibleunlockfororganizations.Oncethat

clicks—anditwillclick—therevolutionwillcomequicklyaspeopleunderstandhowtheseare

usedintheirdailyjobs.Ithinkwe’restilltryingtofigurethatout.It’saveryexcitingtimeforthepossibilityofwhat’shappenedinprobablythelastsixtoninemonthsinthisspace,andit’sgoingtochangeevenmorequickly,probablyinthelastpartoftheyear.

DaphneLuchtenberg:AndIknowwe’reneverallowedtomakepredictions,butMike,howlongdoyouthinkthatwilltake?

MikeRaftery:Soonerthanexpected.Ithinkit’sGartnerthathasthatITsoftwarehypecurve,

whereit’sjustcomingoffthepeakofexpectationsintothevalleyofdisillusionment.Ithinkthat’sgoingtohitprettyquickly.Becauseorganizationslikeoursarestartingtoaddressthis,we’re

askingthequestions;we’vebeenthroughtheserevolutionsbefore,andit’llhappenalotfasterthanusual.We’reseeingclientsunderstandthechallengeinfrontofthemandtackleitvery

purposefully,tousethatwordagain.Iexpectthatbyearly2027,you’llseealotlesspilotingandalotmoreutilization.You’llseesomereallystrongsuccessstoriesbynextsummer.

DaphneLuchtenberg:Andrew,doyouagree?

AndrewShih:Iagree.Ithinkthetokenmaxxingtrendisdyingout.Peoplearegettingalotmoreseriousanddisciplinedaboutit.Sothetimeframesoundsaboutrighttome.

MikeRaftery:IfIhaveonethingtoadd,it’sthatthereisanenvironmentstillchanging

underneathus.I’mgoingtoputanasteriskonallofthisbecausethereareallofthesethird

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partiesoutthere,andasnewmodelscomeoutandnewcapabilitiesevolve,sowillthese

questionsevolve.Youcan’tsetandforget.Thishastobeaconstantchangeandaconstantagileevolutiontotakeadva