Sylvera2025年碳信用市场现状报告

OSylvera

TheStateof

CarbonCredits

2025

◎SylveraLtd2026.Notforredistribution.

REPORT

OSylvera

FOREWORD

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

STRUCTURALSHIFTSWITHINTHEMARKET

1.1TOTALCREDITISSUANCESANDRETIREMENTS

1.2TOTALMARKETVALUE

1.3PROJECTTYPES

1.4QUALITY

1.5CREDITINVENTORY

1.6REGISTRIESANDSTANDARDS

1.7METHODOLOGIES

1.8COMPLIANCEVSVOLUNTARYDEMANDFORCREDITS

1.9CORSIAELIGIBILITYANDCCPACCREDITATION

1.10OFFTAKEVOLUMES

PRICESOF

CARBONCREDITS

2.1GROWTHINTHE

QUALITYPREMIUM

2.2PRICESBYPROJECTTYPE

2.3PRICEVARIATIONS

WITHINPROJECTTYPE

2.4PRICEUPLIFTFROMCO-BENEFITS

BUYERTRENDS

ANDPREFERENCES

3.1COMPANIESBEHINDCARBONCREDIT

RETIREMENTS

3.2DISTRIBUTIONOF

KNOWNBENEFICIARIES

3.3PROJECTTYPESRETIRED

BYBUYERSECTOR

3.4QUALITYOFCREDITS

RETIREDBYBUYERSECTOR

POLICYDRIVERSTHATSHAPE

THEFUTURE

4.1POLICYHIGHLIGHTSIN2025

4.2CONVERGENCEOFCARBONCREDITMARKETS

4.3COMPLIANCEMARKETSTO

OVERTAKEVOLUNTARY

DEMAND

4.4COMPLIANCECREDITUSEANDQUALITY

4.5ARTICLE6CONTINUES

TOEXPAND

4.6THEGROWINGCENTRALITYOFCORRESPONDING

ADJUSTMENTS

LOOKINGAHEAD

SYLVERA'S

MARKET

INTELLIGENCE

CONTENTS

THESTATEOFCARBONCREDITS2025

SylveraLtd2026.

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SylveraMARKETINTELLIGENCE

ThedataandinsightsinthisreportcomefromSylvera'sMarkettIntelligenceplatform-thesamecomprehensivesolutionour

customersusedailytomakeinformedcarbonmarketdecisions.

Getyourfreetrialhere.

FOREWORD

EXEC.SUMMARY

MARKETSHIFTS

PRICES

BUYERS

POLICY

IMPACT

SYLVERA

OSylvera

Foreword

Thecarbonmarketshaveturnedanimportantmaturitycorner-andwhythismatters.

And,ascompliancemarketsintegrateproject-basedcreditsintoregulatoryframeworksglobally,we'reenteringanera

wherevoluntaryandmandatorydemandwillcompeteforthesamehigh-qualitysupply.

Organizationsthatbuildstrategicpositionsnowwillnavigatethecomingyearsfromapositionofstrengthratherthan

scarcity.Andforprojectdevelopers,thewindowtoalign

withemergingqualitystandardsandcompliancecriteriahasneverbeenmorecritical-ormorevaluable.

4

AllisterFureyCEO

Sylvera

WelcometoourStateofCarbonCreditsReport.Sincepublishingourfirsteditionin2022,we'vewatchedcarbonmarketsnavigateunprecedentedscrutiny,evolvingstandards,andfundamentalquestionsaboutits

integrity.

Thisfourtheditionarrivesatwhatisacriticalpoint.Onewherequality,complianceintegration,andmarkettransparencyarenolonger

aspirationalbutessentialasthemarketcontinuestomature.

I'mproudtosaythatSylveranowhasthemostcomprehensivedataset

we'veeverassembled.Thereal-timepricing,quality,demandandsupplydata,andgranularbuyerbehaviorinsightsthatourcustomersrelyupontonavigatethismarket,arethesameinsightswe'veusedtobuildthis

report.

Andthisyear,we'reseeingthatdespitepoliticalheadwindsandcontinuedskepticism,corporatedemandforhigh-qualitycreditsremainsrobust,

withbuyersincreasinglywillingtopaypremiumsthatreflectgenuineclimateintegrity.

Theemergenceofaqualitypremiumacrossthemarketisclear.High-

integrityprojectsnowcommandsignificantlyhigherprices,withthegapwidening.Thisisevidencethatratings,enhancedmethodologies,andimprovedtransparencyonbothsupplyanddemandsidesarereshapingmarketvalue.

THESTATEOFCARBONCREDITS2025

BUYERSPOLICYIMPACTSYLVERA

FOREWORDEXEC.SUMMARYMARKETSHIFTSPRICES

OSylvera

ExecutiveSummaryPt.1

2025markedatransitionpointwheremarketgrowthisbeingdrivenbytwoseparatetrends:pricepremium

2025spend

forqualityandburgeoningcomplianceusecasesdrivingvolume

$1.04billion

2024spend

+$59million

-$86million

Dropincorporateretirementvolumes

+$101million

$966million

Forcarbonmarkets,2025markedaturningpointintoanewphaseforcarbonmarkets.

Compliance

demandgrowth

Riseinaveragepricepaidbycorporates

Totalcreditretirementsmarginallydeclined4.5%to168million,andnewissuancesmarkedlydeclinedby6.9%to270milliontonnes

Despitethat,spendingoncarboncreditshasnotdeclinedandinfactweestimatetheprimarymarketgrewover6%to$1.04billionduring2025.

Corporatevoluntaryuseofcreditscontinueditsshifttowardhigherquality.

AmongstprojectsratedbySylvera,theshareofhigher-quality(Sylvera-ratedBBorabove)creditsretirementsincreasedfrom44%in2024to50%in2025and,moredramaticallyshareofspendrosefrom61%to70%

Separately,increasedcomplianceusecasesforcreditsareclearlyemergingasvolumegrowthdriversinatrendthatwillreshapethemarketthroughto2030.

THESTATEOFCARBONCREDITS2025

SECTION1.

Structuralshifts

withinthemarket

THESTATEOFCARBONCREDITS2025

OSylvera

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POLICYIMPACTSYLVERA

FOREWORDEXEC.SUMMARYMARKETSHIFTSPRICESBUYERS

OSylvera

Structuralshiftsinthemarket

Theheadlinenumberstellastoryofvolumedecline:168millioncreditsretiredin2025,down4.5%from2024.Yetmarketvalueroseto$1.04billionasqualityandpricedroveeconomics-ratherthanvolume.

Carbonmarketsareundergoingfundamentalrestructuring.Thereisclearmarket

fragmentation,betweenhigh-integrityprojectscommandingqualitypremiumsandtighteningsupply,andlegacyprojectslanguishingwithabundantbutunwantedinventory-potentiallystrandedassets.

Compliancedemandnowaccountsfornearlyaquarterofallretirements.Andwhilespot

marketretirementsarethefocusforthehereandnow,aparallelofftakemarketworthover

$12billionistakingshape,largelyduetoseverallargebuyersofremovalscredits.92%of

totalofftakevolumesin2025wenttojust3buyers,withMicrosoftaloneaccountingfor85%.

Thischapterunpackstheforcesreshapingmarketstructure,fromtheriseofcomplianceprogramsandthediversificationofregistries,tothegrowingsupply-demandimbalanceforhighly-ratedcredits.

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THESTATEOFCARBONCREDITS2025

Sylvera

FOREWORDEXEC.SUMMARYMARKETSHIFTSPRICESBUYERSPOLICYIMPACTSYLVERA

1.10Offtakevolumes

Volumesagreedunderofftakesannouncedeachyear

Offtakevolumesannouncedbyyear

78M

80M

70M

60M

50M

43M

40M

30M

26M

20M

10M

10M

0

2022

202320242025

20

THESTATEOFCARBONCREDITS2025

Disclosedofftakers

(70otherbuyers)Citigoup

Engie

Frontier

LEAFCoalition

LNGAliance

Meta

Microsoft

Respira

Tencent

TotalEnergies

Buyersaremovingupstreamtosecurelongtermcontractsforfuturevolumes

Anincreasingnumberofcompaniesaresigninglongtermofftakestosecurefuturesupply.

Thisisdrivenprimarilybythedesiretosecurefuturesupply,againstconcernsthatatightmarketcouldincreasepricesorlimitavailablesupplyoptionstowards2030.

Amongstthe80largestofftakerssystematicallytrackedbySylvera,volumesaresubstantiallyskewedbyseverallargebuyers.

Thetop5since2022being:

58%

11%

5.6%

4.8%

4.7%

Microsoft

LEAF

Coalition

XMeta

CLnG

citi

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SECTION2.

Pricesofcarboncredits

OSylvera

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THESTATEOFCARBONCREDITS2025

FOREWORDEXEC.SUMMARYMARKETSHIFTSPRICES

Pricesofcarboncredits

Whiletheweightedaveragecarboncreditpriceonthespotmarketsitsat$6.10(upfrom$5.36in2024),thisheadlinefiguremasksextraordinaryvariation.ARRprojectstrade

anywherefrom$2toover$50,withhalffallingbetween$5and$25.REDD+projectsshowsimilarlylargevariationsatalowerpricepoint.Andintheforwardmarket,carboncreditscommandpricesaveraging$160duetoalargeshareofdurableCDRcredits

involvedinofftakes.

Weseethreeforcesdrivingthepricedispersion.Firstly,thefundamentalcoststructuresvarydramaticallyacrossprojecttypes.Second-andmorepronouncedin2025than

previously-qualityhasemergedasadecisivepricingfactor,forexamplehigh-qualityARRprojectstradingwellabove$35whilelower-ratedequivalentsarebelow$20.

Andthird,co-benefitstonatureandcommunitiescommandmeasurablepremiums,asbuyersincreasinglyvalueprojectsforimpactsbeyondcarbonalone.

2025markstheyearwhereintegrityratingsaremostclearlyembeddedinpricingdynamics,reflectingyearsofgrowingbuyerawarenessfollowinghigh-profile

overcreditingscandals.

Thischapterexamineswhat'sdrivingtoday'scomplexpricinglandscape.

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THESTATEOFCARBONCREDITS2025

OSylvera

BUYERSPOLICYIMPACTSYLVERA

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SECTION3.

Buyertrendsand

preferences

OSylvera

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THESTATEOFCARBONCREDITS2025

FOREWORDEXEC.SUMMARYMARKETSHIFTSPRICESBUYERS

Buyertrendsandpreferences

Amidheadlinesquestioningcorporatecommitmenttoclimateaction,thedatatellsamorenuancedstory.58%ofcreditretirementsin2025werenon-anonymous,revealingwhichcompaniesareactivelypurchasingcreditsandwhatthey'rebuying.

Overallcorporateappetiteforcarboncreditsremainedrobust,butthecompositionofbuyersandtheirpreferencesshiftednotably.

Energyandutilitiesfirmscontinuetodominate,accountingfor50%ofidentifiedretirementsandshowingnosignsofretreatdespitepoliticalpressures.Butthebuyerlandscapeis

reshapingaroundthem.Transportationandlogisticscompaniesmarkedlyreducedpurchases,whileprofessionalservicesfirmsgrewsteadilytobecomethesecond-largestsourceof

demand.

Intermsofwhatthey'rebuying,energycompaniesfavorforestryprojects,professional

servicesleantowardcookstoves,andtransportationandlogisticscompaniesseeamajorityofrenewableenergyretirements.

Qualityscrutinyalsovariesdramaticallybysector.Whileroughly31%ofratedcreditsretiredscoreBBBorabove,sectorslikeconsumergoods,foodandagriculture,andtransportationrelyonlower-ratedcreditsforover60%oftheirpurchases.

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Thischapteroffersarevealingwindowintocorporatebehavior.

POLICYIMPACTSYLVERA

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THESTATEOFCARBONCREDITS2025

SECTION4.

Policydrivers

shapingthefuture

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THESTATEOFCARBONCREDITS2025

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Sylvera

FOREWORDEXEC.SUMMARYMARKETSHIFTSPRICESBUYERSPOLICYIMPACTSYLVERAO

4.4Article6continuestoexpand

Norway

2025saw20bilateralArticle6dealsandtwonewITMOtrades

20Article6.2dealsweresignedin2025Ofthese,12arefinalbilateralagreements,7arenon-bindingMoUs,andthefinaloneisastatementofintent.

Asof1January2026therewere110Article6.2deals,ofwhich65werefinalagreements.

ThefirstsubstantialArticle6.2transactionwas

announcedinSeptember2025:Singaporeconfirmedapurchaseof2.175millionITMOs(Article6credits)fromatotaloffournature-basedprojects,inPeru,

Ghana,andParaguay.

ThesecondandthirdeverITMOtradestookplace,bothpurchasesbyJapan:

1,009ITMOsfromThailandinNovember

433ITMOsfromtheMaldivesinDecember

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THESTATEOFCARBONCREDITS2025

Kazakhstan

Liechtenstein

Iceland

1SELLER

Azerbaijan

Kyrgyzstan

出田B+18SELLERS

Nepal

Bhutan

Moldova

Kuwait

Uzbekistan

India

Senegal

MexicoDominicanDominicaRepublic

Jordan

Tunisia

Panama

SaudiArabia

Rwanda

Bangladesh

Benin

UAE

Uganda

Myanmar

Ethiopia

SriLanka

Ghana

CostaRicaColombia

KenyaMaldives

Thailand

十O田

Gabon

Malaysia

Paraguay

Tanzania

Singapore

25SELLERS

Malawi

ChileUruguay

Buyers

Liechtenstein十Norway+SwitzerlandlCUAE

Singapore

◎JapanCKuwait

:SouthKoreaSweden

Mongolia

Laos

Vietnam

Cambodia

Indonesia

QF

NUMBER

BUYERS

5

●4

●3

2

1

Philippines

Palau

PapuaNew

Guinea

Vanuatu

Source:IETA

NUMBER0F

SELLERS

25+

15-25

●10-15

1-10

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THESTATEOFCARBONCREDITS2025

OSylvera

Lookingahead-what's

theimpactformarket

participants?

Whatdoesallthismeanforbuyers,investors,projectdevelopersandgovernments?

IMPACTSYLVERAOSylvera

FOREWORDEXEC.SUMMARYMARKETSHIFTS

PRICESBUYERSPOLICY

Buyers

What'sinthedataandhowdoesitaffectbuyers?

Themarketisfundamentallyrestructuringaroundquality.High-integritycreditsnowcommandsubstantialpremiumsandfacetighteningsupply,whilelower-qualityoptionsremainabundantbutincreasinglyunwanted.Thismeansprocurementstrategiesbuiltonpricealoneshouldbeathingofthepast.Quality,supplyavailability,andcomplianceeligibilitynowmatterasmuchas

cost.

Butcompetitionforpremiumcreditsisintensifyingas

complianceprogramsenterthemarketalongsidevoluntary

buyers,allseekingthesamelimitedpoolofhigh-ratedprojects.Thespotmarketremainsfragmentedwithsignificantprice

dispersion,creatingbothopportunitiesandrisksdependingonyourduediligencecapabilities.

Headinginto2026,buyersshould:

·Actearlyonqualitycredits:Thesupply-demandimbalanceforhigh-integritycreditswillintensify.Thosewaitingto

procurefacehigherpricesandlimitedavailability.Considersecuringmulti-yearofftakesnowforpremiumprojects.

·Budgetforqualitypremiums:Planforsignificantlyhighercostsfornature-basedremovalsaswellasdurableCDR.Thedaysofcheap,qualitycreditsareending.

·Diversifystrategically:Balanceyourportfolioacrossprojecttypeswhilemaintainingqualitythresholds.Don'tcompromiseonratingstosavecosts,asreputationalrisksoutweigh

savings.

·Prepareforcomplianceconvergence:CreditseligibleforCORSIAandothercomplianceschemeswilldrivepremiumshigheras2028deadlinesapproach.Factorthisinto

procurementtimingdecisions.

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THESTATEOFCARBONCREDITS2025

IMPACTSYLVERAOSylvera

FOREWORDEXEC.SUMMARYMARKETSHIFTS

PRICESBUYERSPOLICY

Investors

What'sinthedataandhowdoesitaffectinvestors?

Portfoliovaluationsincreasinglydependonqualitypositioningratherthanvolume.Themarketisdividingintodistincttiers:

premiumprojectswithstrongdemandandconstrainedsupplyversuslegacyprojectswithabundantinventorybutlimited

buyers.Thisqualitydividecreatesbothvaluationrisksfor

portfoliosweightedtowardlower-ratedcreditsandsignificantupsideforthosepositionedinhigh-integrityprojects.

Complianceeligibility-mostcriticallyCORSIA-isbecoming

essentialforprojectviability,andtheforwardmarketis

developingseparatelyfromspotdynamics.Meanwhile,durableCDRremainsconcentratedamongasmallbuyerbasedespiteheadline-grabbingdealvalues,creatingtimingrisksforprojectsbankingonnear-termCDRdemand.

Headinginto2026,investorsshould:

·Seehowqualitydrivesvalue:Prioritizehigh-ratedprojects.Thespreadbetweenhighandlow-qualityassetswillwidenasbuyersophisticationincreasesandcomplianceprograms

favorrigorousmethodologies.

·Mapcomplianceeligibilitycarefully:Notall"CORSIA-eligible"methodologieswillsecurecorrespondingadjustments.

AssesshostcountryreadinessandLoAriskcountry-by-countrybeforepositioningforaviationdemand.

·Watchdomesticsystemsclosely:China,Japan,Indonesia,andBrazilpromisesubstantialcompliancedemandbutwithfragmentedstandards.Earlymoverswhounderstand

domesticeligibilitycriteriawillcaptureopportunities.

·CDRremainsnascent:Despiteforwardcommitments,actualdeliveriesandretirementsremainminimal.Don'toverweightportfoliosbasedonfuturepromisesversuscurrentmarket

reality.

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THESTATEOFCARBONCREDITS2025

IMPACTSYLVERAOSylvera

FOREWORDEXEC.SUMMARYMARKETSHIFTS

PRICESBUYERSPOLICY

ProjectDevelopers

What'sinthedataandhowdoesitaffectdevelopers?

Projectqualityandmethodologychoicenowdeterminemarketviability.High-ratedprojectsusingenhancedmethodologies

faceactivebuyerdemandandpremiumpricing,whileprojectsfollowinglegacyapproachesstruggletofindbuyersregardlessofprice.Co-benefitsaddclear,measurablemarketvaluebeyondcarbonalone.

Complianceeligibilityistransitioningfromoptionaltoessentialasagrowingshareofdemandcomesfromregulatedsources.Thebuyerlandscapeisalsoshiftingupstream,withlarger

offtakeagreementsfavoringdeveloperswhocanofferscaleandcertainty.Developersprioritizingqualityandmodern

methodologiesarepositioningthemselvestocapturepremiumdemandandpricing.

Headinginto2026,developersshould:

·Designfor2030standards,nottoday's:Investinenhancedmethodologies(VM47,VM48,newercookstoveprotocols)evenifmoreexpensiveupfront.Projectsregisteredunderlegacymethodologiesriskbecomingstrandedassets.

·Pursueindependentratingsearly:Don'twaituntilcreditsareissued.Engageratingagenciesduringprojectdesignto

understandhowtoachieveBBB+ratings.Thequalitypremiummorethanoffsetsassessmentcosts.

·Buildincomplianceeligibility:MapyourprojectagainstCORSIA,CCP,andmajordomesticsystemrequirements.Projectseligibleformultiplecomplianceschemeshavedownsideprotectionandupsideoptionality

·Investinco-benefitsdocumentation:Biodiversity,

communityimpact,andSDGalignmentdrivepricepremiums.Budgetforrobustmeasurementandverificationofco-

benefits,notjustcarbon.

·Scalemattersforofftakes:Buyerssigningmulti-year

agreementsfavordeveloperswhocandeliver500k+creditsannually.Smallerdevelopersshouldconsideraggregationplatformsorpartnerships.

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THESTATEOFCARBONCREDITS2025

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THESTATEOFCARBONCREDITS2025

FOREWORDEXEC.SUMMARYMARKETSHIFTSPRICESBUYERSPOLICY

Governments&Jurisdictions

What'sinthedataandhowdoesitaffectgovernments?

Compliancemarketsarerapidlybecomingamajorforcein

carboncreditdemand,reshapingdynamicsthatinrecentyearshavebeenvoluntary-led.InternationalframeworkslikeCORSIAandArticle6areoperationalizing,whilemajoreconomiesare

launchingorexpandingdomesticsystemsthatallowcredituse.

Thiscreatesbothopportunitiesandcomplexities:countries

hostingprojectsfacestrategicchoicesaboutcorrespondingadjustments,domesticsystemsriskfragmentingglobal

standards,andearlymoversinbuildingtheinfrastructurefor

Article6gainadvantages.Thetransitionfromvoluntaryto

compliance-drivenmarketsalsoaffectshowinternationalcreditflowsinteractwithnationalclimatecommitmentsandNDC

accounting.

Headinginto2026,governmentsshould:

·Viewcorrespondingadjustmentsasstrategicassets:

Countrieshostingprojectsmustbalancedomesticclimateambitionagainstrevenuefrominternationalcreditsales.DevelopclearframeworksforissuingCAsandLettersofAuthorizationnow—delayscreatebottlenecksaffecting

projectfinancing.

·Aligndomesticstandardswithinternationalframeworks:

Fragmentationincreasestransactioncostsforallparticipants.Wherepossible,harmonizedomesticmethodologieswith

ICVCMCCP,CORSIAeligibility,PACM,andmajorregistriestomaximizemarketaccessfordomesticprojects.

·BuildcapacityforArticle6participation:Whetherbuyingorselling,governmentsneedtechnicalcapacitytonegotiateagreements,verifyreductions,andmanagecorrespondingadjustments.Earlymoversinbuildingthisinfrastructuregainstrategicadvantages.

IMPACTSYLVERAOSylvera

LIVEWEBINAR

TheStateofCarbonCredits:ExpertDataBriefing

February182026

4pmUKTime,11amEST,8amPST

JoinSylvera'sdataexpertsastheyunpackthekeyfindingsfromourStateofCarbonCredits2025report.

We'llexplorepricingtrends,buyerbehaviorshifts,policyconvergence,andwhatcorporatebuyers,investors,andprojectdevelopersshouldprioritizeintheyearahead.

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THESTATEOFCARBONCREDITS2025

Sylvera's

MARKETINTELLIGENCE

Theclearestviewoftoday'scarbonmarket.

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THESTATEOFCARBONCREDITS2025

Sylvera

FOREWORDEXEC.SUMMARYMARKETSHIFTSPRICESBUYERSPOLICYIMPACTSYLVERA

Getthedataweusedtobuildthisreport

OurMarketIntelligencesolutionunifiesthefragmentedcarbonmarketintoasingle,

actionableworkspace.Ratherthanstitchingtogetherregistrydata,brokerquotes,newsfeeds,andconsultantreports,usersaccessintegratedintelligenceacross:

PricingDataprovidesproject-levelspotpriceestimatesacrossthousandsofcarbonprojects,supportedbysevenquality-weightedpriceindicestrackingmarketmovementsbyproject

type.

WhousesSylvera'sMarketIntelligence?Procurementteamsthatavoidoverpaying,

investorswhomarkportfoliosaccurately,and