摩根士丹利-全球资金流动：10月回顾-Global In the Flow October Recap-20261102

MorganStanley

November2,202609:54PMGMT

GlobalIntheFlow

OctoberRecap

MORGANSTANLEYRESEARCH

Global

MorganStanley&Co.LC

SerenaTang

Strategist

serena.tang@+1212761-3380

MorganStanleyIndiaCompanyPrivateLimited+

SohamSen

Strategist

soham.sen1@+91226880-1207

MorganStanley&Co.Intemationalplc+

ErikaSingh-Cundy

Strategist

Erika.Singh-Cundy@+44(0)207425-0960

MorganStanley&Co.Intemationalplc+

YiminHuang

Strategist

Yimin.Huang@+44(0)207677-2870

Signuphere:Ifyoudidntreceivethisdirectlybutwouldliketo,pleaseclickhere.

Performance-Equitiesandcreditsoldoff

TheNASDAQfell5.3%.Ratesbroadlyralliedacrossthecomplex,withUS10Yyieldsfalling36bps.Credit

spreadsalsocameunderpressure,withEURHY

widening65bps.TheDXYgained0.4%.Brentrose13.6%whilegoldfell6.2%.

Technicals-DMIGissuanceremainsstrongwhileDMHYandEMissuanceslag

YTDDMIGcreditgrossissuancecameinat+21%YoY

andcontinuedtobeabovetherunrateofthepast5

years.However,DMHYissuanceisdown7%YoY,andEMdebtissuancecameinat-7%YoY.

Sentiment-MSIsignalrisk-on,sentimentbenign

TheMSlsignalendedthemonthrisk-on.Sentiment

indicatorsarebroadlybenign,withtheUSequityput/callratioat0.9andIlsurveyat0.5.TheVIXremains

containedat19.4.

AldataasofOctober30,2026unlessotherwiseindicated.

1996200120062011201620212026Source:Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearch

USccCcreditspreadscrossed1000bpsandreachedtheirwidestlevelsin4years

UsccCSpreads(bp)

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldafectheobjectivityofMorganStanleyResearch.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanleyResearchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.

Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.

+=Analystsemployedbynon-U.S.affiliatesarenotregistteredwithFINRA,maynotbeassociatedpersonsofthememberandmaynotbesubjecttoFINRArestrictionsoncommunicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.

2

MORGAN

STANLEYR.ESEARCH.

Cross-AssetStrategy–GlobalIntheFlow

November2,2026

HighlightsfromOctober

GLOBALEQUITIES

-5.3%

NASDAQ

-8.1%

MSCIEM

SENTIMENT

+1(Risk-On)

MarketSentimentIndicator‘signal’

19

VIXcurrentlystandsat…

GLOBALFIXEDINCOME

+330bp

UST10Ytotalreturns

+191bp

DBR10Ytotalreturns

FLOWS/ISSUANCE

+21%

YoY∆inYTDDMIGgrossissuance

-7%

YoY∆inYTDDMHYgrossissuance

FX

0.4%

TheDXYgained…

4.9%

BRLdepreciatedagainstUSDby…

MARKET-IMPLIEDPOLICYMOVES

+60bp

CumulativechangeinFedrateoverN12M

+67bp

CumulativechangeinECBrateoverN12M

WewishtoacknowledgeArvindAnnamalaiBalasubramanian’scontributionstothecross-assetteam’swork.

MORGAN

STANLEYR.ESEARCH.

Cross-AssetStrategy–GlobalIntheFlow

November2,2026

3

TableofContents

1.HighlightsfromOctober

2.MarketReview&Trends

Equity•FixedIncome•Credit•FX&Commodities

3.Valuations

Equity•FixedIncome•Credit•FX

4.Technicals

Sentiment•ETF&MutualFundFlows•Issuance

5.WhatWe’reWatching

GlobalMacroData•USCycleIndicator

2

4

21

31

38

InCaseYouMissedIt…

Cross-AssetPlaybook:Engage,WithCaution(2Nov2026)

Ourkeyviewsandtoptradesinoneplace.

Cross-AssetBrief:WhatWouldPromptECBInterventioninthe

EGBMarket?KeyDebatesinUnder5Minutes–October2026(30Oct2026)

Don'thavealotoftime?Herearesomebriefthoughtsonafewkeycross-assetdebateswe'vehadwithinvestorsinSeptemberonourout-of-

consensuscalls.

Cross-AssetDispatches:ExpandingOurMarketCycleFramework(29Oct2026)

OurexpandedUSmarketcycleframeworkissignaling"MatureAdvance",aphasethathashistoricallyfavoredequitiesoverfixedincome,especiallyversusHYandgovernmentbonds.Turnsintheframeworkfrom"MatureAdvance"tothe"Defensive"regimetendtobeassociatedwithhikes,butwethinkriskassetscouldweathersuchashift.StayOWglobalequities

viatheUS.

Cross-AssetDispatches:GlobalFixedIncomeSupplyTracker(27Oct2026)

IGsupplyremainselevated,butwethinkmore"programmatic"issuance

shouldmakeabsorptionmoremanageable.Ashigherratespressure

lower-qualityborrowers,wefavorquality,andourcreditstrategyteamnowprefersIGoverHY.Governmentbonds,meanwhile,remaindrivenmorebymacrofactorsthansupply.

4

MarketReview&Trends

5

MORGANSTANLEYRESEARCH

..

Cross-AssetStrategy–GlobalIntheFlow

November2,2026

MARKETREVIEW

RankedRealReturns

RankedAssetClassReturnbyYear–BlueMeansYou’reBeatingInflation

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

202420252026YTD

Commod.(21%)

MSCICN(51%)

USDCash(0%)

S&P500(29%)

MSCICN(28%)

USREITS(32%)

Commod.(0%)

S&P500(22%)

S&P500(22%)

MSCIEU(33%)

Commod.(20%)

USSmall(19%)

MSCIEM(35%)

US2Y(0%)

USREITS(26%)

USSmall(18%)

S&P500(20%)

USDCash(-5%)

MSCIJP(17%)

MSCICN(16%)

MSCIEM(31%)

MSCIJP(13%)

USHY(15%)

MSCIEU(24%)

US10Y(-1%)

USSmall(23%)

MSCIEM(17%)

Commod.(18%)

US2Y(-10%)

MSCIEU(17%)

USSmall(8%)

MSCICN(28%)

USSmall(10%)

GlobalHY(12%)

MSCIJP(22%)

USAgg(-2%)

MSCIEU(22%)

S&P500(17%)

MSCIEU(9%)

EMLocal(-14%)

USSmall(13%)

GlobalHY(6%)

MSCIJP(22%)

MSCIEM(9%)

S&P500(10%)

S&P500(19%)

TIPS(-3%)

MSCICN(21%)

MSCIJP(13%)

USSmall(7%)

USHY(-17%)

GlobalHY(10%)

MSCIJP(6%)

S&P500(15%)

USREITS(9%)

MSCIEM(9%)

USSmall(12%)

USHY(-4%)

MSCIJP(17%)

Commod.(10%)

TIPS(-1%)

TIPS(-17%)

USHY(10%)

USHY(5%)

Commod.(12%)

S&P500(7%)

EM$Sov.(7%)

EMLocal(12%)

USIG(-4%)

MSCIEM(16%)USIG(12%)

TIPS(10%)

USHY(-2%)MSCIJP(-5%)

GlobalHY(-18%)

USREITS(8%)

EM$Sov.(7%)

MSCIEM(5%)

EM$Sov.(10%)

USSmall(10%)

MSCIEU(3%)

EMLocal(0%)

USREITS(7%)

GlobalHY(8%)

EM$Sov.(7%)

EMLocal(-5%)

US10Y(9%)

USAgg(-18%)

EM$Sov.(4%)

USDCash(-1%)

USIG(4%)

GlobalHY(-6%)

USHY(12%)

USIG(8%)

GlobalHY(-6%)

MSCIEU(-20%)

MSCIEM(7%)

Commod.(3%)

GlobalHY(9%)

EMLocal(4%)

USREITS(6%)

USREITS(-6%)

EM$Sov.(11%)

USAgg(6%)

USDCash(-7%)

US10Y(-20%)

USIG(5%)

USDCash(2%)

EMLocal(6%)

US2Y(-2%)

TIPS(3%)

Commod.(5%)

EM$Sov.(-6%)

GlobalHY(10%)

USHY(6%)

US2Y(-7%)

USIG(-21%)

EMLocal(3%)

USREITS(2%)

USHY(6%)

TIPS(-3%)

MSCIJP(1%)

USHY(5%)

S&P500(-6%)

Commod.(8%)

GlobalHY(6%)

USIG(-8%)

MSCIJP(-21%)

USAgg(2%)

US2Y(1%)

US10Y(6%)

USHY(-3%)GlobalHY(-4%)

USAgg(1%)

USIG(4%)

Commod.(-12%)

EMLocal(7%)

MSCIEU(5%)

USAgg(-8%)

EM$Sov.(-22%)

USDCash(2%)

MSCIEU(0%)

USIG(5%)

MSCICN(-1%)

USAgg(1%)

USSmall(-13%)

USAgg(6%)

EMLocal(4%)

EMLocal(-8%)

S&P500(-23%)

US2Y(1%)

USIG(-1%)

USAgg(5%)

USAgg(-4%)

US2Y(-1%)

TIPS(1%)

MSCIJP(-14%)

US10Y(6%)

EM$Sov.(4%)

MSCIEM(-9%)

MSCIEM(-25%)

TIPS(1%)

TIPS(-1%)

TIPS(4%)

EM$Sov.(-4%)

US10Y(-1%)

US10Y(0%)

MSCIEM(-16%)

TIPS(6%)

US2Y(2%)

EM$Sov.(-9%)

USSmall(-25%)

US10Y(0%)

EMLocal(-1%)

US2Y(2%)

USIG(-5%)

USDCash(-2%)

USDCash(-1%)

MSCIEU(-16%)

US2Y(1%)

USDCash(-1%)

US10Y(-9%)

MSCICN(-27%)

MSCICN(-14%)

USAgg(-2%)

USDCash(2%)

US10Y(-6%)MSCICN(-21%)

MSCIEU(-2%)

US2Y(-2%)

MSCICN(-20%)

USDCash(0%)

USREITS(-6%)

MSCICN(-27%)

USREITS(-30%)

Commod.(-14%)

US10Y(-3%)

USREITS(0%)

Source:Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearch;Note:WecomputeannualreturnsminusUSheadlineinflation.InflationasofJuneCPI.Bluemeansreturns(inUSD)beatinflation,andredmeansreturnstrailedinflation.

6

MORGANSTANLEYRESEARCH

..

Cross-AssetStrategy–GlobalIntheFlow

November2,2026

MARKETREVIEW

What’sExtremeVersustheLast12Months?

Equities

CurrentversusLast12mRange

LowHigh

7580

S&P500

MSCIEurope

TOPIXMSCIEM

ShanghaiComp

KOSPI

634478192554

225226293965

324641971567

133418033599

359942435731

38469115

CommSrvs

Discretionary

Energy

Financials

Healthcare

Industrials

Materials

RealEstate

Staples

Tech

Utilities

143

143177425

MSCIACWISectors

385

398474

257385

239

207253450

367450493

444549414

3574771009

9591087321

2833281201

8761348201

188218

LargevsSmall#DIV/0!#DIV/0!ValuevsGrowth#DIV/0!#DIV/0!

FixedIncome&Commodities

CurrentversusLast12mRange

LowerYields

HigherYields

UST10Y

Bunds10Y

UKT10Y

3.942.63

4.23

4.93

3.32

5.313.64

5.48

5.28

TighterSpreads

WiderSpreads

90

93

340

340

105

110

370

382206

219

34

45

USIG

USHY

EUIG

EUHY

EMSov

USMBS

71

250

72

247

158

14

Low

118

High

118

5318

116

689

844

Brent Gold SilverCopperIronOre

593899

389949

47648495

672

668

Source:Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearch;Note:EMSovhereisbasedontheJPMEMBIDiversifiedSovIndex.

Cross-AssetStrategy-GlobalIntheFlow

MorganStanleyMORGANSTANLEYRESEARCH

November2,2026

MARKETREVIEW

CREDIT

Spread

(bp)

1YRange

1MChange(bp)

1M

bp

ZScore

usCORPORATECREDIT

USAGG

32

1

USIG

90

10

USHY

340

29

USIGBBB

111

13

USHYBB

204

18

CDXIG

62

2

CDXHY

356

15

EUROPECORPORATECREDIT

EURAGG

70

13

EURIG

105

14

EURHY

370

65

EURIGBBB

120

16

EURHYBB

227

36

Main

66

3

XOver

326

25

EM

EM$Sov

236

0

CDXEM

169

9

SECURITIZED

USMBS

34

-9

CMBSAAA*

70

9

RATES

Yields(%)

1YRange

1MChange

1M

bp

ZScore

us

UST2Y

4.59

30

UST10Y

4.93

-36

UST30Y

5.31

-32

USB/E10Y

2.34

UST2Y/10Y

0.34

-6

RoW

DBR10Y

3.32

-26

UKT10Y

5.28

-14

JGB10Y

2.77

-28

LastMonth'sMovesinContext

EQUITIES

Level

1YRange

1MChange

1M

%

ZScore

EQUITYMARKETS

MSCIACWI

1,116

-1.7%

S&P500

7,580

-0.9%

Russell2000

2,812

0.5%

NASDAQ

25,437

-5.3%

Eurostoxx50

6,131

-2.2%

DAX

25,818

2.5%

FTSEMIB

49,501

-3.6%

FTSE100

10,730

1.2%

TOPIX

3,965

-3.5%

MSCIChina

67

-7.2%

HangSeng

23,294

-5.4%

MSCIEM

1,567

-8.1%

EQUITYSECTORS(MSCIACWI)

Cons.Disc.

425

2.1%

Cons.Staple

321

9.9%

Comm.Serv.

143

-12.8%

Energy

385

11.6%

Financials

239

1.0%

Healthcare

450

9.2%

Industrials

493

-2.1%

Materials

414

-2.3%

Tech.

1,201

-7.8%

Utilities

201

6.6%

STYLE(MSCIACWI)

Large/Small

106%

-1.2%

Value/Growth

51%

6.8%

Source:Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearch;Note:Welookat1mpricereturnsforequifies,1mspreadchangesforcreditand1myieldchangesforrates.

7

Cross-AssetStrategy-GlobalIntheFlow

MorganStanleyMORGANSTANLEYRESEARCH

November2,2026

8

MARKETREVIEW

COMMODITIES

Latest

1YRange

1MChange

1M

%

ZScore

INDEX

BCOMSP

727

0.2%

S&PGSCI

754

3.3%

PreciousMetalsIndex

5,091

-8.1%

IndustrialMetalsIndex

602

-1.8%

AgricultureIndex

385

-6.4%

EnergyIndex

373

9.5%

ENERGY

WTICrude

104

15.2%

Brent

118

13.6%

NaturalGas

3

-4.2%

Gasoline

331

-3.7%

HeatingOil

479

-3.4%

Gasoil

1,478

0.9%

PRECIOUSMETALS

Gold

3,899

-6.2%

Silver

49

-18.6%

Platinum

1,436

-15.6%

INDUSTRIALMETALS

Aluminum

3,117

-1.9%

Nickel

15,126

-4.1%

Zinc

3,885

-0.3%

Lead

1,890

2.2%

Tin

48,846

-9.3%

Copper

648

-2.1%

IronOre

672

-5.0%

LastMonth'sMovesinContext

FX

Latest

1YRange

1MChange

1M

%

ZScore

AUD/USD

0.7032

1.2%

CAD/USD

0.7156

1.8%

EUR/USD

1.1160

-1.5%

CHF/USD

1.2121

1.3%

GBP/USD

1.3391

0.9%

JPYIUSD

0.0063

-0.1%

NOK/USD

0.1087

4.5%

NZD/USD

0.5631

-0.1%

SEK/USD

0.1018

1.9%

BRL/USD

0.1839

-4.9%

CLP/USD

0.1007

-1.9%

CNY/USD

0.1503

0.8%

COPIUSD

0.0313

3.7%

IDRIUSD**

0.0551

-1.4%

INR/USD

0.0105

0.9%

KRW/USD*

0.0750

1.8%

MXN/USD

0.0532

-3.8%

MYRIUSD

0.2464

0.5%

PLN/USD

0.2534

-2.4%

ZAR/USD

0.0598

-1.7%

INDICES

DXY

102

0.4%

EURTWI

111

-1.4%

Source:Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearch;Note:Welookat1mpicereturnsforFXandcommodities.**Spot×-rateshown×10.WeshowCMXcopper.

9

MORGAN

STANLEYR.ESEARCH.

Cross-AssetStrategy–GlobalIntheFlow

November2,2026

MARKETREVIEW

EquityMarkets–TotalReturns

LastMonth

2026YTD

Region

TotalReturn(USD)%

MSCIACWI

S&P500

MSCIEuropeMSCIUK

MSCIGermanyMSCIFrance

JapanTopixMSCIKorea

HangSeng

MSCITaiwan

MSCIBrazil

MSCIMexico

MSCIS.Africa

MSCIChina

MSCIIndia

-1.6

11.5

-0.9

11.8

0.4

7.0

2.4

10.8

0.9

1.1

-1.6

-3.8

-3.2

21.8

-15.6

67.4

-5.2

-6.5

-8.4

56.4

-12.0

4.5

4.6

10.4

-3.7

-7.1

-7.0

-17.9

1.2

-13.7

ByRegionBySector

LastMonth

2026YTD

MSCISector

TotalReturn(USD)%

ACWILarge

ACWISmallCapACWIGrowth

ACWIValueUSLarge

USSmall

USGrowthUSValue

EULargeEUSmall

EUGrowthEUValue

USLargeGrowthUSLargeValue

USSmallGrowth

USSmallValue

-2.0

11.6

-0.1

5.4

-4.9

4.8

1.7

18.5

-1.5

11.7

2.2

16.2

-5.4

4.2

3.5

19.2

0.0

6.2

-0.1

5.4

-0.1

3.2

0.9

11.0

4.3

16.2

2.9

20.1

0.2

17.2

4.3

16.2

Source:Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearch;Note:Returnsshownaregrosstotalreturns.

MORGAN

STANLEYR.ESEARCH.

Cross-AssetStrategy–GlobalIntheFlow

November2,2026

10

MARKETREVIEW

Current

LastMonth

2026YTD

Spread

Yield

(%)

Yield/

spread∆

(bp)

Excess

Returns

(bp)

Total

Returns

(bp)

Yield/

spread∆

(bp)

Excess

Returns

(bp)

Total

Returns

(bp)

EURFixedInc.

DBR10Y

-3.3

-26-191

47-

-41

Agg.

703.9

13-996

27-95

-158

Sec.

553.6

92078

18-17

-48

IG

1054.2

1442-97

27-16

-45

HY

3707.3

65155-276

10523

-88

EURCorp.

AA

683.9

96-74

19-62

-65

A

944.1

1219-90

23-49

-43

BBB

1204.4

1634-108

31-46

-44

BB

2275.7

36107-203

5158

-26

B

4488.1

94135-335

137-7

-88

CCC

175420.6

453438-737

701-281

-768

FixedIncomeMarkets–TotalandExcessReturns

Current

LastMonth

2026YTD

Spread

Yield

(%)

Yield/

spread∆

(bp)

Excess

Returns

(bp)

Total

Returns

(bp)

Yield/

spread∆

(bp)

Excess

Returns

(bp)

Total

Returns

(bp)

USFixedInc.

UST10Y

-

4.9

-36

-

330

76

--217

Agg.

32

5.2

1

26

244

5

3-54

MBS

34

5.5

-9

85

307

12-34-34

IG

90

5.8

10

24

216

1211-102

HY

340

8.3

29

240

30

748540

USCorp.

AA

A

BBBBB

B

CCC

71

5.7

5.6

6.0

7.0

8.3

15.8

11

-13

210

238

193

23

10

14

39

67

501

-104

8

20

61

120

-371

-252

-94

-75

92

98

-412

74

6

34

111

13

27

204

18

138

226

93

1

335

34

1116

109

792

-236

EM

EMSov.$

206

7.0

24

47

153

23

54

-54

Source:Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearch

Cross-AssetStrategy-GlobalIntheFlow

MorganStanleyMORGANSTANLEYRESEARCH

November2,2026

MARKETREVIEW

Cross-AssetVolatility

Index

Implied

Daily

Move

ImpliedVol3m(IV3m)

VolCarry1V3m-RV1m

VolSkew3m

TermStructure(3m-1y)

IV3m/RV1mRatio

Now

1MChgon15y

Range

Now

1MChgon15y

Range

Now

1MChgon15y

Range

Now

1MChgon15y

Range

Now

1MChgon15y

Range

MAJOREQUITYMARKETS

S&P500

1.0%

15.9%

4.3%

6.6%

2.4%

1.4

Russell2000

1.2%

19.7%

3.7%

5.3%

2.0%

1.2

Nasdaq

1.5%

23.4%

0.3%

7.1%

0.7%

1.0

Eurostoxx50

1.1%

17.2%

3.4%

5.7%

0.6%

1.2

FTSE100

0.8%

13.3%

3.8%

3.7%

0.8%

1.4

Nikkei

1.7%

27.7%

-1.8%

5.0%

-1.9%

0.9

MSCIEM

1.6%

25.3%

2.7%

4.1%

0.4%

1.1

HangSeng

1.1%

18.0%

-1.3%

2.0%

2.3%

0.9

Kospi

2.8%

45.0%

-10.9%

0.1%

-6.5%

0.8

RATES

EU10y

5

79.4

38.7

2.0

CREDIT

CDXHY

0.1%

1.7%

0.0

COMMODITIES

BrentCrude

2.9%

45.5%

14.6%

-15.1%

1.5

Gold

1.3%

20.4%

5.9%

1.9%

1.4

G10FX

JPY

0.5%

7.8%

3.6%

-1.9%

0.6%

1.9

EUR

0.4%

6.1%

1.0%

0.5%

0.7%

1.2

GBP

0.4%

6.0%

0.9%

0.6%

1.2%

1.2

AUD

0.5%

7.2%

1.9%

1.0%

1.4%

1.3

CAD

0.3%

4.4%

0.5%

0.0%

0.6%

1.1

EMFX

BRL

0.9%

14.7%

-19.1%

2.6%

-0.0%

0.4

MXN

0.7%

10.9%

-0.2%

3.2%

0.2%

1.0

CNH

0.1%

1.9%

1.0%

0.1%

1.0%

2.1

KRW

0.7%

10.4%

3.6%

0.9%

0.3%

1.5

ZAR

0.6%

10.0%

1.9%

2.1%

1.7%

1.2

Source:Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearch;Note:Componentsofthescorecard:A)3mimpliedvol;forcreditindices,weusethecorrespondingCBOE3-monthvolatilityindexand1Mchangeis

shownon10YrangeB)Volcarry:Definedasthedifferencebetween3-monthimpliedvoland1-monthrealisedvol.C)Volskew(3m):1)DefinedasOTMput-OTMcall;2)Definedas25-deltaskewforequities,commoditiesandFX;3)Definedas+50/-50bpskewforUSratesand+25/-25bpskewforEUrates;4)Definedas80/130skewforcredit.D)Termstructure:Definedasthedifference

11

between1-yearand3-monthimpliedvol.Blueshadedareashowsafallinvolatilitymetricwhileredshadedareashowsariseinthevolatilitymetric.Blackdotrepresentsthecurrentvalue,blackverticalbarrepresentsdatapoint1mago.

12

MorganStanleyMORGANSTANLEYRESEARCH

November2,2026

Cross-AssetStrategy-GlobalIntheFlow

MARKETTRENDS

RelativePerformance-TotalReturnDifferences

EquitiesversusGovt.Bonds(%)

StockslessBonds12MTR(%)

一US

一Europe

-Japan

50

0

StocksunderperformGov'tBonds

StocksoutperformGov'tBonds

-50

20182020202220242026

RegionalEquitiesversusMSCIACWI(%)

StockslessACWI12MTR(%)

StocksoutperformACWI

10

0

-10

-20

一US

-30

一EMStocksunderperformACWI

20182020202220242026

一Europe

20

Asof:2026-10-30Asof:2026-10-30

Source:Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearchSource:Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearch;Note:MSCIACWlandMSCIEMareinUSD.

InvestmentGradeCreditversusGovt.Bonds(%)

IGCreditlessBonds12MTR(%)

IGCreditoutperformsGov'tBonds

20

10

-10

IGCreditunderperformsGov'tBonds

2020202220242026

一US

—Europe

2018

-20

Asof:2026-10-30

Source:Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearch

EquitiesversusHighYield(%)

StockslessHY12MTR(%)

StopksoutperformHY

一US

一Europe

25

0

StocksunderperformHY

20182020202220242026

75

50

-25

Asof:2026-10-30

Source:Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearch

MorganStanleyMORGANSTANLEYRESEARCH

Cross-AssetStrategy-GlobalIntheFlow

November2,2026

13

MARKETTRENDS

RelativePerformance-TotalReturnDifferences

EMversusDMEquities(%)

EMlessDMStocks12MTR(%)

-20

-40

20182020202220242026

CyclicalversusDefensiveEquities(%)

CyclicalslessDefensives12MTR(%)

CyclicalsOutperform

一US

一Europe

25

-25

DefensivesOutperform

20182020202220242026

75

50

Asof:2026-10-30Asof:2026-10-30

Source:Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearch;Note:Weshowpricereturn.

Small-CapversusLarge-CapEquities(%)

SmalllessLargeCaps12MTR(%)

60

Small-CapQutperforms

40

20

0

-20

Large-CapOutperforms

2020202220242026

一US

—Europe

2018

Asof:2026-10-30

Source:Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearch

Source:Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearch

ValueversusGrowthEquities(%)

ValuelessGrowth12MTR(%)

20ValueOutperforms

0

-20

一US

-40

—Europe

-60GrowthOutperforms

20182020202220242026

Asof:2026-10-30

Source:Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearch

MorganStanleyMORGANSTANLEYRESEARCH

November2,2026

Cross-AssetStrategy-GlobalIntheFlow

MARKETTRENDS

EquityMarketsbyRegion

US

S&P500

7000

6000-

5000-

70

30+

Jan-25Jul-25Jan-26Jul-26Jan-27

Asof:2026-10-30

-S&P500-14DRSI-RSI>70-RSI<30

Source:Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearch

Japan

Topix

TOPIX-14DRSI-RSI>70-RSI<30

4000-

3500-

3000-

2500-

70+

30-

Jan-25Jul-25Jan-26Jul-26Jan-27

Europe

MSCIEurope(LocalCcy)

2600-

2400-

2200-

2000-

70+

30

Jan-25Jul-25Jan-26Jul-26Jan-27

Asof:2026-10-30

-MSCIEurope-14DRSI-RSI>70-RSI<30Source:Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearch

EM

MSCIEM

1800-

1600-

1400-

1200-

1000-

70-

30

Jan-25Jul-25Jan-26Jul-26Jan-27

Asof:2026-10-30

一MSCIEM-14DRSI-RSI>70-RSI<30

Source:Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearchSource:Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearch

Note:Redindicatesindexat2standarddeviationsbelow200Dmovingaverage;greenindicatesindexat2standarddeviationsabove200Dmovingaverage.14

Source:Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearchSource:Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearch

Note:Redindicatesindexat2standarddeviationsbelow200Dmovingaverage;greenindicatesindexat2standarddeviationsabove200Dmovingaverage.15

Cross-AssetStrategy-GlobalIntheFlow

MorganStanleyMORGANSTANLEYRESEARCH

November2,2026

MARKETTRENDS

GovernmentBondMarkets

UST10Y(%)

(%)

20182020202220242026

一US10Y-200DMA-<-2SD->+2SD+-2MStdev

US2s10s(bp)(bp)

20182020202220242026

一US2s10s-200DMA-<-2SD->+2SD+-2MStdev

Asof:2026-10-30

Source:Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearch

Bunds10Y(%)

(%)

20182020202220242026

Source:Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearch

JGB10Y(%)

(%)

3

2

20182020202220242026

一Bund10Y-200DMA一<-2SD一>+2SD+-2MStdey一JGB10Y-200DMA一<-2SD->+2SD+-2MStdey

Asof:2026-10-30Asof:2026-10-30

Cross-AssetStrategy-GlobalIntheFlow

MorganStanleyMORGANSTANLEYRESEARCH

November2,2026

Source:Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearchSource:Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearch

Note:Redindicatesindexat2standarddeviationsbelow200Dmovingaverage;greenindicatesindexat2standarddeviationsabove200Dmovingaverage.16

MARKETTRENDS

CreditMarkets

USDInvestmentGradeCreditSpreads(bp)(bp)

300

200

100

20182020202220242026

一USDIG-200DMA-<-2SD->+2SD+-2MStdev

Asof:2026-10-30

USDHighYieldCreditSpreads(bp)

(bp)

900

600

300

201820202022202420262028

340.0

一USDHY-200DMA-<-2SD->+2SD+-2MStdev

Asof:2026-10-30

Source:Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearch

Source:Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearch

EURInvestmentGradeCreditSpreads(bp)

EMB