野村-美国中期选举影响：大型科技与存储芯片的选择 速览-US mid-term election impact：options for big tech and memory Quick Note-20261105

GlobalMarketsResearch

GlobalMemory5November2026

EQUITY:MEMORY

USmid-termelectionimpact:optionsforbigtechandmemory

QuickNote

FederalAIDCmoratoriumunlikely,but“temporarypause”atstate-levelpossible

WebelievethatmainstreamDemocratsarenotopposedtoAlitself.Thekeyquestions,inourview,arewhopaysforpower,whoprovidesoversight,howsemiconductorchipsaresuppliedtoChina,andhowexportcontrolsonchipmakingequipmentwouldevolve.A

federaldatacentermoratoriumlooksunlikelygivendivisionswithinthepartyandthe

presidentialveto,andanybrakesshouldcomeatthestatelevel.InTexasandGeorgia,candidateswhocampaignedona"temporarypause"(haltingnewpermitsforAldatacentresuntilrulesareinplace)won,whileinOhiobothparties'candidatesbacked

conditionalapproval.Nogovernor-electinmajordatacenterstateshavepledgedapermanentban;permanentbansexistonlyinsomelocalballotmeasures.

Impacton2027Fnewcapacityislimited;2028Fandbeyondnewcapacityatriskofdelay

Thecapacitycomingonlinein2027islargelyunderconstructionalready,sotheimpact

shouldbelimited,inourview.However,projectsslatedfor2028andbeyondarestillintheplanningstageandfacetheriskofdelayedcommissioning.ManyofOpenAI's(unlisted)Stargatesitesdueforcompletionin2028areinstateswherecandidatessupportinga

temporarypausewon.Withroughlysixmonthsleftbeforeconstructionmuststartfor2028commissioning,anydelaycouldpushsome2028capacityinto2029F.Weestimatethe

delay-exposedsizeatabout7%ofglobalnewcapacityin2028F(~11%inourbearcase).

Bigtechcompanieslikelytorespondthroughself-fundedpower,higherutilization,andrelocation;cumulativedemandtoremainintact,butcostperGWlikelytorise

Bigtechcompaniesarealreadyaddressingregulatoryconcernsthroughcommunity

engagementandbybearingpowercostsitself.InMarch,Google(GOOGLUS,Notrated),Microsoft(MSFTUS,Notrated),Meta(METAUS,Notrated),Amazon(AMZNUS,Not

rated),OpenAlandothersjoinedapledgetobuildorbuytheirownpowergenerationandcovergridupgradecosts,andsomehavebegundroppingnon-disclosureagreements.

Giventhestrengthofunderlyingdatacenterdemand,bigtechcompaniesarelikelyto

minimizetheimpactbyraisingutilizationatexistingdatacenters,replacingGPUs,

securingalready-permittedsites,compensatinglocalcommunities,andshiftingcapacitytofriendlierstatesandoverseas.Becausetheimpactsaremainlyrelocationanddelayratherthancancellation,cumulativedemandshouldbepreserved,althoughcostperGWislikelytoriseduetocommunitycompensationandhigherpowercostburdens.

ResearchAnalysts

AsiaPacificTechnology

CWChung-NIHKcwchung@+85222526075

KoreaTechnology

EonHwang-NFIK

eon.hwang@+82237832318

YJKim,CFA-NFIKyj.kim1@

+82237832332

ThefactthatdatacentersareacoreresourceintheAlracewithChinashouldlimithowlonganytemporarypausecanlast.Thekeyquestioniswhetherpausesextendbeyondayearorsettleintohigherpowercostsharingandstricterpermittingconditions;ourbasecaseisthelatter.AnuncertaintydiscountcouldweighonsharepricesuntiltheTexas

legislativesessionendsinMay2027,withleveragedcompaniesthathavelargeTexasexposurebeingatthegreatestrisk.

(Continueonthenextpage)

ProductionComplete:2026-11-0508:34UTC

SeeAppendixA-1foranalystcertification,importantdisclosuresandthestatusofnon-USanalysts.

GlobalMemory

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2

AIDCbuildoutdelaytoresultinhigherGPUrentalprice;memorymarketimpactin

2028Fandbeyondisunlikelytobesevere

Ontheotherhand,delaysindatacenterbuild-outsaddupwardpressuretocloudGPUrentalprices,whicharealreadyrising.Highercomputerentalpricescouldbringforwardreplacementwithhigher-performanceGPUs,whichmightevenbepositivefor

semiconductordemand.Inourview,theelectionsrisksarerelocationandsomedelaysratherthancancellations.Consideringbigtechcompanies'variousresponsesand

memorymakers'long-termsupplyagreements(LTAs),theimpactonthememorymarketfrom2028Fonwardislikelytobemilderthanthemarketfears.Evenifsomedatacenterprojectsaredelayed,webelievememorymakerscanpreemptivelyadjustsupplyin2+yearslaterthroughLTAs,limitingtheriskofsevereoversupply.

Bigtechcompanies’possibleresponses

Belowarepossibleresponsestothemid-termelectionresultsthatcouldbetakenbybigtechcompanies.Inourview,measures1,2,6,and10accountformostoftheoffsets

achievablein2028F.Relocation(measures4and5)shouldmainlytakeeffectfrom2029F,webelieve.

Fig.1:Bigtechcompanies’possibleresponsestoAIDCregulations

No.

Response

Whatitinvolves

Effect

Leadtime

Offsetwithin2028

1

RaiseutilizationofexistingDCs

-Fillunusedspaceandraiserackdensity

SameGW,

morecompute

Months

High

2

Bringprojectsunderconstructioninlinewithnewrules

-Sharegridcosts

-Disclosewaterusage

Minimizesdelay,highercost

Months

Medium

3

Communitynegotation/compensation

-Communitybenefitagreements

-Bearingpowercosts

-EndingNDAs

Higherapprovalodds,highercost

6-12mo

Medium

4

Accelerateinless-regulatedregions

-Louisiana,Tennessee,Mississippi,Wyoming,Arizona,Pennsylvania,andfederalland

Relocatescapacity

12-24mo

Low-Medium

(powerequipmentbottlenecks)

5

Accelerateoverseasbuildouts

-Gulf,NorthernEurope,India,SoutheastAsia

Relocates/addscapacity

18-24mo

Low

(geopolitics/chipexportapprovals)

6

FasterGPUreplacement

-SwapolderGPUsfornewonesinexistingsites

-Limitsareearlywrite-offs,rackpower,andcooling

Morecomputeonthesamepower;

nonewpermits

Months

High

7

Flexible-loadcommitments

-Curtailuseatpeakdemand

-Texaslawallowscurtailinglrageloadsinemergencies

-Limitisincreaseddifficultyofinferences

Easesgridconcerns;fasterinterconnection

Months

Medium

8

Water-savingdesign

-Closed-loopcooling(alreadyusedatmanyStargatesites)

-Limitisslightlyhigherpowerusage

Removeswaterobjections

Designstage

Medium

9

Reuseexistingindustrialsites

-Convertretiedpowerplants,factories,andwarehouses

-Limitisthattherearefewsuitablesites

Avoidsfarmlandandrezoningdisputes

6-18mo

Medium

10

Securealready-permittedcapacity

-Leaseoracquiredevelopersitesthatalreadyhaspermitsandgridconnections

-Limitispremiumpricing

Immediatecapacity

Months

High

11

Splitintosmallersites

-StaybelowMWthresholdsinsomemoratoria(e.g.NewYork,50MW+)

-Limitisthatitisunsuitabletolargetrainingclustersandthereisabacklashrisk

Avoidsthresholds

6-12mo

Low

12

Legalandinstitutionalresponses

-Litigation;pushforfederalstandards;industrypledges

-Limitisuncertaintyaboutoutcomes

Clearerrulesovertime

6-24mo

Low

Source:EpochAI,Ballotpedia,DatacenterDynamics,AP,Nomuraestimates

3

Fig.2:Hynix(000660KS,Buy)–2028Fearnings/valuationbymemorypricescenario

AssumingthesharepriceremainsatthecurrentlevelofKRW1,300,000

Memorypricescenario

Currentassumption

-10%

-20%

-30%

-40%

-50%

Assumptions

ASP(USD/GB)DRAM

19.6

17.6

15.7

13.7

11.8

9.8

NAND

0.32

0.29

0.26

0.23

0.19

0.16

Cost(USD/GB)DRAM

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.6

NAND

0.08

0.08

0.08

0.08

0.08

0.08

Shipment(bnGB)DRAM

23

23

23

23

23

23

NAND

385

385

385

385

385

385

Earnings(KRWtn)

Revenue

759

683

608

532

456

380

OP

606

531

455

380

304

228

NP

486

426

365

305

244

184

BV

830

799

772

746

719

688

Shareholderreturn(KRWtn)

Dividend

40

35

26

17

8

3

Buyback

200

175

150

125

100

75

Sharecount(mnshares)

Buyback

154

135

115

96

77

58

End-2028

487

506

525

544

564

583

Pershare(KRW)

EPS(avg)

861,674

743,193

626,935

514,437

405,519

300,012

EPS(end)

928,825

842,032

695,837

559,933

433,269

314,935

BVPS(end)

1,759,590

1,579,397

1,470,279

1,370,932

1,275,504

1,181,102

Valuation

P/E(year-avg)

1.5x

1.7x

2.1x

2.5x

3.2x

4.3x

P/E(year-end)

1.4x

1.5x

1.9x

2.3x

3.0x

4.1x

P/B(year-end)

0.7x

0.8x

0.9x

0.9x

1.0x

1.1x

Note:“Currentassumption”standsforourup-to-date2028Fearningsestimatesandinvolvedassumptions

Source:Nomuraestimates

Nomura|GlobalMemoryENovenber2026

AppendixA-1

ThisreporthasbeenproducedbyNomuraInternational(HongKong)Ltd.(NIHK),HongKong.

SeeDisclaimersforNomuraGroupentitydetails.

AnalystCertification

We,CWChung,EonHwangandYJKim,herebycertiy(1)thattheviewsexpressedinthisResearchreportaccuratelyeflectourpersonalviewsaboutanyorallfthesubjectsecuritiesorissuersreferredtointhisResearchreport,(2)nopartofourcompensationwas,isorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyelatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisResearchreportand(3)nopartofourcompensationistiedtoanyspecificinvestmentbankingtransactionsperformedbyNomuraSecuritiesInternational,Inc.,NomuraInternationalplcoranyotherNomuraGroupcompany.

IssuerSpecificRegulatoryDisclosures

Theterms"Nomura"and"NomuraGroup"usedhereinrefertoNomuraHoldings,Inc.anditsafiliatesandsubsidiaries,includingNomuraSecuritiesInternational,Inc.('NSI')andInstinet,LLC(ILLC'),U.S.registeredbrokerdealersandmembersofSIPC.

Materiallymentionedissuers

Issuer

Ticker

Price

KRW

PricedateStockrating

Sectorrating

Disclosures

SKHynix

000660KS

1,396,000

04-Nov-2026Buy

N/A

A4.A5.A6.A7

A4TheNomuraGrouphashadaninvestmentbankingservicesclientrelationshipwiththesubjectcompanyduringthepast12months.A5TheNomuraGrouphasreceivedcompensationforinvestmentbankingservicesfromthesubjectcompanyinthepast12months.

A6TheNomuraGroupexpectstoreceiveorintendstoseekcompensationforinvestmentbankingservicesfromthesubjectcompanyinthenextthreemonths.

A7TheNomuraGrouphasmanagedorco-managedapublicorprivateofferingofthesubjectcompany'ssecuritiesinthepast12months.

SKHynix(000660KS)

Ratingandtargetpricechart(threeyearhistory)

SKHynix

KRW1,396,000(04-Nov-2026)Buy(Sector

rating:NIA)

Targetprice

4,700,000.00

4,000,000.00

2,340,000.00

Closingprice

2,580,000.00

1,819,000.00

1,225,000.00

Asof05-Nov-2026

Currency=KRW

DateRating24-Jun-26

15-May-2623-Apr-26

4500000.00

23-Mar-26

1,930,000.00

933,000.00

12-Feb-26

1,560,000.00

888,000.00

4000000.00

29-Jan-26

1,250,000.00

861,000.00

3500000.001

24-Dec-25

880,000.00

588,000.00

29-Oct-25

840,000.00

558,000.00

3000000.00

24-Sep-25

540,000.00

357,500.00

25-Jun-25

360,000.00

286,000.00

2500000.00

26-Mar-25

300,000.00

214,000.00

06-Dec-24

270,000.00

167,100.00

2000000.00

02-Sep-24

280,000.00

174,000.00

24-Jun-24

290,000.00

223,000.00

1500000.00

25-Apr-24

250,000.00

170,600.00

19-Mar-24

190,000.00

160,200.00

1000000.00

30-Nov-23

180,000.00

133,900.00

500000.00

0.00

2024/01/012024/07/012025/01/012025/07/01

2026/01/012026/07/01

Forexplanationofratingsrefertothestockratingkeyslocated

Source:LSEG.Nomuraafterchart(s)

ValuationMethodologyOur12-monthtargetpriceofKRW4,700,000isderivedbyapplyingatargetP/Bof4.8xto12MFBVPSofKRW973,288.BenchmarkforthestockisKOSPI200.

RisksthatmayimpedetheachievementofthetargetpriceDownsideriskincludespotentialUStariffsonsemiconductor

products,delayindatacenterconstructionduetopowersupplyshortage,andslowdowninAlcapexunderahigherinterestrateenvironment.

ImportantDisclosures

Onlineavailabilityofresearchandconflict-of-interestdisclosures

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NomuraGroupresearchisavailableon

/research,Bloomberg,CapitalIQ,Factset,LSEG.

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/research/m/DisclosuresorrequestedfromNomuraSecuritiesInternational,Inc.

Ifyouhaveanydifficultieswiththewebsite

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Theanalystsresponsibleforpreparingthisreporthavereceivedcompensationbaseduponvariousfactorsincludingthefirm'stotalrevenues,aportionofwhichisgeneratedbyInvestmentBankingactivities.Unlessotherwisenoted,thenon-USanalystslistedatthefrontofthisreportarenotregistered/qualifiedasresearchanalystsunderFINRArules,maynotbeassociatedpersonsofNSI,andmaynotbesubjecttoFINRARule2241restrictionsoncommunicationswithcoveredcompanies,publicappearances,andtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.

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Distributionofratings(NomuraGroup)

ThedistributionofallratingspublishedbyNomuraGroupGlobalEquityResearchisasfollows:

60%havebeenassignedaBuyratingwhich,forpurposesofmandatorydisclosures,areclassifiedasaBuyrating;34%ofcompanieswiththisratingareinvestmentbankingclientsoftheNomuraGroup*.0%ofcompanies(whichareadmittedtotradingonaregulatedmarketintheEEA)

withthisratingweresuppliedmaterialservices**bytheNomuraGroup.

38%havebeenassignedaNeutralratingwhich,forpurposesofmandatorydisclosures,isclassifiedasaHoldrating;57%ofcompanieswiththisratingareinvestmentbankingclientsoftheNomuraGroup*.0%ofcompanies(whichareadmittedtotradingonaregulatedmarketintheEEA)withthisratingweresuppliedmaterialservicesbytheNomuraGroup

2%havebeenassignedaReduceratingwhich,forpurposesofmandatorydisclosures,areclassifiedasaSellrating;17%ofcompanieswiththisratingareinvestmentbankingclientsoftheNomuraGroup*.0%ofcompanies(whichareadmittedtotradingonaregulatedmarketintheEEA)withthisratingweresuppliedmaterialservicesbytheNomuraGroup.

Asat30September2026.

*TheNomuraGroupasdefinedintheDisclaimersectionattheendofthisreport.

**AsdefinedbytheEUMarketAbuseRegulation

DefinitionofNomuraGroup'sequityresearchratingsystemandsectors

Theratingsystemisarelativesystem,indicatingexpectedperformanceagainstaspecificbenchmarkidentifiedforeachindividualstock,

subjecttolimitedmanagementdiscretion.Ananalyst’stargetpriceisanassessmentofthecurrentintrinsicfairvalueofthestockbasedonanappropriatevaluationmethodologydeterminedbytheanalyst.Valuationmethodologiesinclude,butarenotlimitedto,discountedcashflow

analysis,expectedreturnonequityandmultipleanalysis.Analystsmayalsoindicateexpectedabsoluteupside/downsiderelativetothestatedtargetprice,definedas(targetprice-currentprice)/currentprice.

STOCKS

Aratingof'Buy',indicatesthattheanalystexpectsthestocktooutperformtheBenchmarkoverthenext12months.Aratingof'Neutral',

indicatesthattheanalystexpectsthestocktoperforminlinewiththeBenchmarkoverthenext12months.Aratingof'Reduce',indicatesthattheanalystexpectsthestocktounderperformtheBenchmarkoverthenext12months.Aratingof'Suspended',indicatesthattherating,targetpriceandestimateshavebeensuspendedtemporarilytocomplywithapplicableregulationsand/orfirmpolicies.Securitiesand/orcompaniesthatarelabelledas'Notrated'orshownas'Norating'arenotinregularresearchcoverage.Investorsshouldnotexpectcontinuingor

additionalinformationfromNomurarelatingtosuchsecuritiesand/orcompanies.Benchmarksareasfollows:UnitedStates/Europe/Asiaex-Japan:pleaseseevaluationmethodologiesforexplanationsofrelevantbenchmarksforstocks,whichcanbeaccessedat:

/research/m/Disclosures;GlobalEmergingMarkets(ex-Asia):MSCIEmergingMarketsex-Asia,unlessotherwise

statedinthevaluationmethodology

;Japan:Russell/NomuraLargeCap.

SECTORS

A'Bullish'stance,indicatesthattheanalystexpectsthesectortooutperformtheBenchmarkduringthenext12months.A'Neutral'stance,

indicatesthattheanalystexpectsthesectortoperforminlinewiththeBenchmarkduringthenext12months.A'Bearish'stance,indicatesthattheanalystexpectsthesectortounderperformtheBenchmarkduringthenext12months.Sectorsthatarelabelledas'Notrated'orshownas'N/A'arenotassignedratings.Benchmarksareasfollows:UnitedStates:S&P500;Europe:DowJonesSTOXX600;GlobalEmerging

Markets(ex-Asia):MSCIEmergingMarketsex-Asia.Japan/Asiaex-Japan:Sectorratingsarenotassigned.

TargetPrice

ATargetPrice,ifdiscussed,indicatestheanalyst’sforecastforthesharepricewitha12-monthtimehorizon,reflectinginparttheanalyst's

estimatesforthecompany'searnings.Theachievementofanytargetpricemaybeimpededbygeneralmarketandmacroeconomictrends,andbyotherrisksrelatedtothecompanyorthemarket,andmaynotoccurifthecompany'searningsdifferfromestimates.

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contributionsofoneormoreNomuraGroupentitieswhoseemployeesandtheirrespectiveaffiliationsarespecifiedonpage1oridentified

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elsewhereinthispublication.Theterm"NomuraGroup"usedhereinreferstoNomuraHoldings,Inc.anditsaffiliatesandsubsidiariesincluding:

(a)NomuraSecuritiesCo.,Ltd.('NSC')Tokyo,Japan,(b)NomuraFinancialProductsEuropeGmbH(‘NFPE’),Germany,(c)Nomura

Internationalplc('NIplc'),UK,(d)NomuraSecuritiesInternational,Inc.('NSI'),NewYork,US,(e)NomuraInternational(HongKong)Ltd.

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http://dis.kofia.or.kr

,(g)NomuraSingaporeLtd.(‘NSL’),Singapore(Registrationnumber197201440E,regulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingapore)(h)NomuraAustraliaLtd.(‘NAL’),Australia

(ABN48003032513),regulatedbytheAustralianSecuritiesandInvestmentCommission('ASIC')andholderofanAustralianfinancialserviceslicencenumber246412,(i)NomuraSecuritiesMalaysiaSdn.Bhd.(‘NSM’),Malaysia,(j)NIHK,TaipeiBranch(‘NITB’),Taiwan,(k)Nomura

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(Group)Co.,Ltd.InaccordancewiththelawsofthePeople’sRepublicofChina(“PRC”,excludingHongKong,MacauandTaiwan,forthe

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wholeorinpart)foranydirect,indirect,incidental,exemplary,compensatory,punitive,specialorconsequentialdamages,costs,expenses,

legalfees,orlosses(includinglostincomeorprofitsandopportunitycosts)inconnectionwithanyuseormisuseoftheircontent,including

ratings.Creditratingsarestatementsofopinionsandarenotstatementsoffactorrecommendationstopurchaseholdorse