2026年第四季度美国社区太阳能市场动态

U.S.COMUNTYSOLAR

october2026

y

血

U.s.communitysolarLandscape

⬤

⬤

⬤

⬤

programswithforwardflowcapacityopenMA,ME,MN

programsliveandongoingIL,MD,NM,NY

Nicheprogramsliveandongoing

CA,CO,DE,Hl,NH,NJ,OR,RI,VA,VT

statestowatchPA,OH,Ml

Executivesummary

•NewJersey'snewruleswillallowcommunitysolarprojectsupto20Mwondesignatedsites,withregistrationopenforsuchprojectsuntilDec31,2028.Morecapacitywilllikelybeavailablefor

subscriptionstartingnextyearasdevelopersprioritizelargerprojectsthatcanrealizebettereconomiesofscale.

•Illinoishasbecomeastrongbuyer'smarketforcommunitysolarsubscribersasprojectavailability

exceedscurrentdemandinAmeren.CBRE'srecentrequestforproposals(RFP)attractedmorethan500MwofAmerencapacityavailableforsubscriptiononbehalfofclients.DevelopersinAmerennowacceptsubinvestmentgradecorporatesubscribers.

•capacityvaluesforcommunitybatteriesinupstateNewyorkareexpectedtoincrease.withthestaterunresidentialofftakeoptionnolongermeetingtargetprojectrevenues,developersarenowturningtocorporatesubscribers.

•DevelopersinmaturemarketssuchasMassachusetts,Maine,andMinnesotaarelookingtofillthegapsleftbyresidentialsubscribersthatexiteachyear.CBRE's'forwardflow'contractsallowcorporateclientstosignshorttermcommunitysolarsubscriptionswithprojectsthatneedtotemporarilycoverthelostresidentialofftake.

COMMUNITYSOLAR

CBRE

NewruleswillexpandthecommunitysolarprojectcapacityavailableinNewJersey

onsep9,2026,NewJersey'sgovernorsigneds3183toallowupto20Mwcommunitysolarprojectsoncommercialandindustrialrooftops,landfills,brownfields,andformerminingsites.NewJerseyhadpreviouslycappedallprojectsat5MW.

DevelopershaveuntilDec31,2028,toregistertheirlargerprojects.Qualifyingsiteswillhave33monthstoreachcommercialoperation.

NewJerseywillrequireutilitiestoprocessallcommunitysolarapplicationsonpowerlinesof34.5kilovolts(kv)andbelow.utilitiescouldpreviouslyclassifythoselinesastransmissioninsteadofdistribution,whichpushedprojectapplicationsintothefederalinterconnectionqueueanddisqualifiedprojectsfromthecommunitysolarprogram.

NewJersey

keyTakeaways

Newsizeandgrid

connectionrulescan

expandcommunitysolar

capacityavailablefor

subscriptioninNewJerseyin2027.CBREisevaluatingdeveloperpipelinesinthestateforsmallcommercialsubscriptionopportunities.

Illinois

DevelopersinAmerenareenrollingsubmminvestmentgradesubscribersassupplyoutstripsdemand

DevelopersinIllinoisareactivelylookingtoclosenewsubscriptionsforexistingprojectsthatsecuredfederaltaxcreditsbeforetheJul4,2026,deadline.

InAmerenterritory,wheresupplymateriallyoutstripsdemand,developersarenow

enrollingcorporatesubscriberswithsubinvestmentgradecredit.CBRE'slatestRFpinAmerenattractedmorethan500Mwofcommunitysolarcapacityavailablefor

subscription.

keyTakeaways

Developerinterestacross

CBRE'snetworkinIllinois

givessubscribersbetter

termsandopensprojectstosub-investmentgrade

corporateentitiesinAmeren.

Asofoctober,the2026/27IllinoisAdjustableBlockprogram(ABP)remains

undersubscribed,asdevelopersfocusonsecuringofftakeforexistingprojects.ABpisastate-runincentivemechanismthatbuysrenewableenergycredits(RECS)from

communitysolarprojectsover1520years.

COMMUNITYSOLAR

CBRE

HighervDERcreditswouldopenupstatecommunitybatteryprojectstocorporatesubscribers

Newyork'svalueofDistributedEnergyResources(VDER)programpaysdistributedbatteryprojectownersthroughseveralcomponents,oneofwhichisaDemand

Reductionvalue(DRV)setbyutilitymarginalcosts.

Apendingstaffproposalbeforethepublicservicecommission(psc)wouldmateriallyincreaseDRvvaluesinupstateNewyork.Batteriescandischargeacrosstheentire

DRvwindowonsummerevenings,soownerscancapturemoreoftheincreaseinVDERpaymentsthansolarprojects.

Newyork

keyTakeaways

withvDERcreditssetto

increase,companieswithloadinupstateNewyorkwillbeabletosubscribetobatterystorageprojects

startingin2027.

SFA)

contractwithinvestmentgradecorporatesubscribers.

ForwardFlowopportunities

Residentialofftaketurnoveropensshort-termcorporatesubscriptionopportunities

communitysolarprojectsinmaturemarketsloseresidentialsubscriberseveryyear.someprojectsareunabletoreplacesubscribersinatimelymanner,creatingacashflowshortfallthatimpairstheirabilitytoservicetheirdebt.

corporatesubscriberscanstepintothatshortfallandcapturebillsavingswithoutalong-termcommitmentorterminationfees,whilethedevelopercanresolveitsshorttermcashflowissuesfromlostresidentialofftake.

CBREstructures'forwardflow'contractsthatfillthegapwithasimple,short-termmodifiedsubscriptionagreementwithcorporateoffakers.underaforwardflowcontract,acorporationsubscribesupto1015%ofacommunitysolarproject's

expectedoutput.

capacityfor'forwardflow'subscriptionisavailableinmaturecommunitysolarmarketswithlargeoperationalfleets,suchasMassachusetts,Maine,Minnesota,andIllinois.

keyTakeaways

CBREtypicallysubscribesclientsupto85%oftheir

loadtocommunitysolar,

leavinga15%bufferto

accountforp