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IME
UBS
GlobalResearch4November2026
GlobalEconomicForecastDatabase
UBSforecasts-changesthisweek
Latestglobaleconomicforecasts
AllUBSeconomicforecasts(>50indicatorsforroughly40countries/regions)areaccessibleinExcelthroughour"GlobalForecastDatabase",whichcanbefoundhere.
Foreaseofreference,wealsocirculatetheDatabasetables,onaweeklybasis,sortedbyIndicatorandRegion(pg7-73).Asummarycanbefoundonpg4.Pg5showsforecastchangescomparedwithaweekagoandpg6showshowourforecastsdeviatefromconsensus.Ifyouhavequestionsonspecificregions;ourcontactlistisonpg74.
Economics
Global
AnnaTitareva
Economist
anna.titareva@+44-20-75685083
ArendKapteyn
Economist
arend.kapteyn@+44-20-75670531
HIGHLIGHTS:InMalaysia,wenowexpectBNMtoraisetheOPRby25bpsinJanuary2027,insteadofNovember2026.InPoland,weshiftedourfirst25bpsratehikebytheNBPfromNovembertoDecember,andwecontinuetoexpectanother25bpshikein
Q1'27.
YouaresigneduptoGlobalEconomicResearchonourNeoplatform.Shouldyouwishtounsubscribefromthe'GlobalEconomicForecastDatabase'withoutlosingaccesstoothereconomicsresearch,pleaseemailubs-economics@.
Source:UBS
Pleasenotethatforecastsarecontinuouslyupdated,sothispublicationiscorrectasof
thedateofpublication.Intra-weekforecastupdatescanbefoundhere.
ThisreporthasbeenpreparedbyUBSAGLondonBranch.ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDREQUIREDDISCLOSURES,INCLUDINGINFORMATIONONTHEQUANTITATIVERESEARCHREVIEWPUBLISHEDBYUBS,BEGINONPAGE76.
GlobalEconomicForecastDatabase4November2026ab2
Contents
ForecastHighlights 4
Currentforecastsvslastweek 5
CurrentforecastsvsConsensus 6
Forecastsbyindicator 7
RealGDP,%y/y 8
QuarterlyRealGDP,%q/qsaar 9
ConsumerExpenditure,%y/y 10
GovernmentConsumption,%y/y 11
FixedInvestment,%y/y 12
Exports,%y/y 13
Imports,%y/y 14
UnemploymentRate,% 15
ConsumerPrices,%y/y(average) 16
ConsumerPrices,%y/y(year-end) 17
Domesticcredit,%y/y 18
Domesticbankcredit,%ofGDP 19
Policyrates,%(year-end) 20
Generalgovernmentbudgetbalance,%ofGDP 21
Governmentrevenue,%ofGDP 22
Governmentexpenditure,%ofGDP 23
Publicsectordebt(gross),%ofGDP 24
Currentaccount,%ofGDP 25
TotalCentralBankFXreserves,%ofGDP 26
Forecastsbyregion 27
US&Canada 28
LatinAmerica 31
WesternEurope 39
EmergingEMEA 49
Asia 59
AnnaTitareva
Economist
anna.titareva@+44-20-75685083
ArendKapteyn
Economist
arend.kapteyn@+44-20-75670531
GlobalEconomicForecastDatabase4November2026ab3
AustraliaandNewZealand 71
GlobalContactList 74
GlobalEconomicForecastDatabase4November2026ab4
GlobalEconomicForecastDatabaseUBSResearch
ForecastHighlights
RealGDP1/
CPI(%avg)
Currentaccount
(%GDP)
Fiscalbalance
(%GDP)
20252026F2027F
Q4/Q4Q4/Q420262027
20252026F2027F
20252026F2027F
20252026F2027F
US2.32.42.2
2.52.1
2.73.52.6
-3.7-2.7-2.5
-5.8-6.2-6.7
Japan1.20.80.9
0.91.2
3.21.92.1
4.85.55.3
-0.7-1.4-1.2
Canada1.71.01.9
1.81.6
2.12.82.0
-0.9-0.8-0.6
-1.3-2.3-1.8
UK1.21.51.1
1.91.1
3.43.23.3
-3.1-3.1-3.0
-4.2-3.8-3.1
Switzerland1.62.21.2
2.41.4
0.20.70.8
6.39.29.6
0.50.20.3
Sweden#1.62.72.4
2.52.1
2.61.52.8
7.16.16.2
-1.4-2.4-1.9
Eurozone1.30.81.2
0.91.2
2.13.13.1
1.60.91.0
-2.9-3.2-3.3
Germany0.31.01.5
1.31.6
2.32.72.7
4.43.93.2
-3.0-3.7-4.3
France0.90.51.0
0.21.2
0.92.62.7
-0.4-1.0-1.0
-5.1-5.0-4.8
Italy0.70.80.8
0.60.9
1.73.43.3
1.10.40.6
-3.1-3.0-2.8
Spain2.62.51.8
2.21.8
2.73.93.5
2.92.22.4
-2.4-2.4-2.4
Greece2.12.01.8
2.01.7
2.53.72.4
-5.7-5.5-4.4
1.70.50.5
EMEA2.71.13.6
1.13.7
11.69.98.1
0.30.31.2
-3.3-3.3-2.7
Turkey3.62.63.1
3.03.6
34.931.123.9
-1.9-2.5-2.5
-2.8-3.7-3.5
SouthAfrica1.11.32.0
1.32.1
3.24.34.5
-0.5-0.8-1.2
-4.5-3.8-3.5
Kazakhstan5.84.53.5
4.32.9
11.512.37.3
-4.0-3.9-2.7
-2.5-2.3-2.0
Czech2.62.32.6
1.62.3
2.52.13.1
0.60.30.2
-2.1-2.5-2.5
Hungary0.51.92.9
2.73.0
4.41.72.2
1.71.21.5
-4.7-7.3-5.0
Poland3.63.43.6
3.33.4
3.83.14.0
-1.0-1.3-1.1
-7.3-7.1-7.1
Russia1.00.81.7
1.01.8
8.76.05.1
1.72.81.8
-2.7-2.0-1.3
UAE6.2-0.55.7
-2.14.9
1.33.02.3
10.87.618.5
4.74.03.0
SaudiArabia4.6-3.410.4
-4.610.4
2.01.82.0
-2.6-1.9-0.2
-5.8-5.2-2.5
Asia(exJapan)5.45.25.0
5.05.1
0.92.42.3
3.33.33.3
-4.7-4.9-4.7
Australia2.02.01.4
1.41.4
2.84.13.4
-2.6-3.9-4.5
-0.6-0.9-1.0
NewZealand0.32.12.2
2.02.6
2.83.82.7
-3.0-3.7-3.4
-2.8-2.1-1.2
HongKong3.64.53.0
3.93.3
1.41.91.7
10.47.06.6
-2.3-1.5-0.3
Singapore5.05.33.2
4.33.1
0.91.91.9
16.715.014.4
1.4-0.3-0.3
Korea1.13.52.5
3.42.6
2.12.82.2
7.017.617.0
-2.3-2.0-2.1
Taiwan8.811.04.3
7.22.3
1.61.91.9
19.815.214.7
-0.1-0.5-1.0
Malaysia5.25.24.7
4.64.7
1.41.91.8
1.62.31.4
-3.7-3.4-3.2
Thailand2.42.32.9
1.73.1
-0.11.92.0
3.0-1.60.2
-4.8-4.8-4.2
Indonesia5.15.15.2
3.45.4
1.93.43.6
-0.1-2.2-2.5
-2.8-2.8-2.2
Philippines4.42.95.1
4.85.4
1.75.94.9
-3.3-4.4-3.7
-5.6-5.5-4.9
India7.87.27.0
7.17.1
2.15.25.0
-0.7-1.3-1.2
-8.1-7.8-7.6
China5.04.64.6
4.54.7
0.00.90.8
3.73.73.8
-5.1-5.4-5.2
LatinAmerica*2.11.62.1
1.81.9
8.97.86.4
-1.5-1.4-1.7
-5.1-5.3-5.3
Argentina4.43.33.4
5.53.4
41.932.922.8
-1.1-0.9-0.4
0.20.00.2
Mexico0.60.82.0
0.82.2
3.83.73.7
-0.5-0.5-1.1
-3.7-3.9-3.8
Brazil2.31.61.5
1.31.7
5.04.54.4
-3.0-2.5-3.0
-8.3-8.9-9.2
Venezuela0.0-4.0-3.0
2.52.4
299.0600.0550.0
-4.7-4.1-4.2
-4.0-4.0-4.0
Chile2.50.73.0
-4.0-3.0
4.23.63.2
-1.2-1.5-1.5
-2.9-2.2-1.8
Colombia2.62.52.4
3.21.5
5.16.05.3
-2.4-2.5-2.6
-6.4-6.8-6.4
Peru3.42.83.6
1.80.4
1.53.62.2
3.11.71.6
-2.2-2.0-1.5
G71.71.71.7
1.81.7
2.53.12.6
-1.6-1.1-1.0
-4.6-5.0-5.2
DM1.92.11.9
2.11.8
2.43.02.6
-0.50.10.1
-4.1-4.4-4.6
EM4.74.04.6
4.04.8
3.84.53.8
1.61.41.6
-5.0-5.2-4.9
World*3.53.23.4
3.23.5
3.33.93.3
0.20.50.7
-4.4-4.7-4.7
Source:Haver,CEIC,NationalStatistics,UBSforecasts1/calendaryearaverage*ForCPI,excludesVenezuela.**Forbudgetbalance,centralgovt.***IndianumbersbasedonFiscalyearendingMarch.#CPIforSwedenreferstoCPIF(ConsumerPriceIndexwithaFixedinterestrate).
end'26
end'27
10yUSTreasuryyield
5.20
5.00
10yBundyield
3.50
3.25
10yJGB
2.75
2.85
10yGilts
5.25
4.60
Brentoilprice(avg)
91.6
80.0
Globalassumptions
end'26
end'27
EUR/USD
1.11
1.10
USD/JPY
160.0
160.0
GBP/USD
1.32
1.34
EUR/CHF
0.93
0.92
USD/RMB
7.00
6.90
Source:UBSestimates
GlobalEconomicForecastDatabase4November2026ab5
Currentforecastsvslastweek
RealGDP1/
CPI(%avg)
Policyrate(endperiod)
FXvsUSD(endperiod)
UBS-current
forecasts
26F27F
Chgvslastwk26F27F
UBS-current
forecasts
26F27F
Chgvslastwk26F27F
UBS-current
forecasts
26F27F
Chgvslastwk26F27F
UBS-current
forecasts
26F27F
Chgvslastwk26F27F
US^
2.42.2
0.00.0
3.52.6
0.10.2
4.254.50
0.000.00
--
--
Japan
0.80.9
0.00.0
1.92.1
0.00.0
1.502.00
0.000.00
160160
0.000.00
Canada
1.01.9
0.00.0
2.82.0
0.00.0
2.502.75
0.000.00
1.421.45
0.000.00
UK
1.51.1
0.00.0
3.23.3
0.00.0
4.004.00
0.000.00
1.321.34
0.000.00
Switzerland
2.21.2
0.00.0
0.70.8
0.00.0
0.000.50
0.000.00
0.840.84
0.000.00
Sweden#
2.72.4
0.00.0
1.52.8
0.00.0
2.002.25
0.000.00
11.211.5
0.000.00
Eurozone^^
0.81.2
0.00.0
3.13.1
0.00.1
2.753.00
0.000.00
1.111.10
0.000.00
Germany^^France^^
Italy^^Spain^^
1.01.50.51.00.80.8
2.51.8
0.00.00.00.00.00.0
0.00.0
2.72.72.62.73.43.3
3.93.5
-0.1-0.1
0.10.20.30.7
0.00.1
2.753.002.753.002.753.00
2.753.00
0.000.000.000.000.000.00
0.000.00
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
Greece^^
2.01.8
0.00.0
3.72.4
0.00.0
2.753.00
0.000.00
--
--
EMEA
1.13.6
0.00.0
9.98.1
0.00.0
--
--
--
--
Turkey
2.63.1
0.00.0
31.123.9
0.00.0
36.0028.50
0.000.00
5157
0.000.00
SouthAfrica
1.32.0
0.00.0
4.34.5
0.00.0
7.256.50
0.000.00
1617
0.000.00
Kazakhstan
4.53.5
0.00.0
12.37.3
0.00.0
14.5012.00
0.000.00
627638
0.000.00
Czech
2.32.6
0.00.0
2.13.1
0.00.0
4.003.75
0.000.00
24.224.0
0.000.00
Hungary
1.92.9
0.00.0
1.72.2
0.00.0
5.255.00
0.000.00
355340
0.000.00
Poland
3.43.6
0.00.0
3.14.0
0.00.2
4.004.00
0.000.50
4.34.4
0.000.00
Russia
0.81.7
0.00.0
6.05.1
0.00.0
12.508.00
0.000.00
8590
0.000.00
UAE
-0.55.7
0.00.0
3.02.3
0.00.0
4.154.40
0.000.00
3.673.67
0.000.00
SaudiArabia
-3.410.4
0.00.0
1.82.0
0.00.0
4.755.00
0.000.00
3.753.75
0.000.00
Asia(exJapan)
5.25.0
0.00.0
2.42.3
0.00.0
--
--
--
--
Australia
2.01.4
0.00.0
4.13.4
0.00.0
4.854.60
0.000.00
0.690.70
0.000.00
NewZealand
2.12.2
0.00.0
3.82.7
0.10.1
3.003.25
0.000.00
0.560.55
0.000.00
HongKong"
4.53.0
0.00.0
1.91.7
0.00.0
2.972.84
0.000.00
7.807.80
0.000.00
Singapore
5.33.2
0.00.0
1.91.9
0.00.0
1.751.75
0.000.00
1.291.29
0.000.00
Korea
3.52.5
0.00.0
2.82.2
0.00.0
3.253.25
0.000.00
14601500
0.000.00
TaiwanMalaysia
Thailand
11.04.35.24.7
2.32.9
0.00.00.00.0
0.00.0
1.91.91.91.8
1.92.0
0.00.00.00.0
0.00.0
2.002.002.753.00
1.001.25
0.000.00 -0.250.00
0.000.00
32.031.0
4.14.13333
0.000.000.000.00
0.000.00
Indonesia
5.15.2
0.00.0
3.43.6
0.00.0
6.006.25
0.000.00
1850018000
0.000.00
Philippines
2.95.1
0.00.0
5.94.9
0.00.0
5.756.00
0.000.00
6464
0.000.00
India**
7.27.0
0.00.0
5.25.0
0.00.0
6.006.00
0.000.00
96.098.0
0.000.00
Vietnam
8.06.5
--
3.33.4
--
4.254.25
--
--
--
China""
4.64.6
0.00.0
0.90.8
0.00.0
1.401.40
0.000.00
7.006.90
0.000.00
LatinAmerica*
1.62.1
0.00.0
7.86.4
0.00.0
--
--
--
--
Argentina
3.33.4
0.00.0
32.922.8
0.00.0
--
--
17001900
0.000.00
Mexico
Brazil
Venezuela"""
0.82.0
1.61.5-4.0-3.0
0.00.0 -0.10.0
0.00.0
3.73.74.54.4
600.0550.0
0.00.00.00.0
0.00.0
6.506.50
13.7511.00
--
0.000.00
0.751.25
18.7519.00
0.000.00
5.35.4
20969640
0.000.00
--
--
Chile
0.73.0
0.00.0
3.63.2
0.00.0
4.505.00
0.000.00
950957
0.000.00
Colombia
2.52.4
0.00.0
6.05.3
0.00.0
12.2511.50
0.000.00
38853930
0.000.00
Peru
2.83.6
0.00.0
3.62.2
0.00.0
4.755.25
0.000.00
3.453.48
0.000.00
G7
1.71.7
0.00.0
3.12.6
0.00.1
--
--
--
--
DM
2.11.9
0.00.0
3.02.6
0.00.1
--
--
--
--
EM
4.04.6
0.00.0
4.53.8
0.00.0
--
--
--
--
World*
3.23.4
0.00.0
3.93.3
0.00.1
--
--
--
--
Source:Haver,CEIC,NationalStatistics,UBSforecasts,Bloombergconsensusmedianforecasts.1/calendaryearaverage.*ForCPI,excludesVenezuela.**ForecastsforIndiarelatetofiscalyears2026and2027,withFYendingMarch.***G8aggregateforecastforconsensus.^Fedpolicyratesareupperboundtargetrate.^^ECBeffectivepolicyrate(thedepositrate).^^^Czech,HungaryandPolandFXisversusEUR."3MHIBOR.ItisthebenchmarkinterestrateusedbytheHongKongcentralbank.""1-yeardepositrate."""ForFX,blendedweightedaverageofseveralavailableFXrates.#CPIforSwedenreferstoCPIF(ConsumerPriceIndexwithaFixedinterestrate).
GlobalEconomicForecastDatabase4November2026ab6
CurrentforecastsvsConsensus
RealGDP
1/
CPI(%avg)
UBS-currentUBSvs
forecastsConsensus
26F27F26F27F
Policyrate(endperiod)
UBS-currentUBSvs
forecastsConsensus
26F27F26F27F
FXvsUSD(endperiod)
UBS-currentUBSvs
forecastsConsensus26F27F26F27F
UBS-currentUBSvs
forecastsConsensus
26F27F26F27F
US^
2.4
2.2
0.1
0.0
3.5
2.6
0.1
0.1
4.25
4.50
0.0
0.3
-
-
-
-
Japan
0.8
0.9
0.0
0.1
1.9
2.1
0.0
0.0
1.50
2.00
0.0
0.3
160
160
3.0
10.0
Canada
1.0
1.9
0.0
0.2
2.4
2.0
-0.4
-0.3
2.50
2.75
0.0
0.0
1.42
1.45
0.02
0.08
UK
1.5
1.1
0.2
-0.1
3.2
3.3
0.0
0.2
4.00
4.00
0.00
0.00
1.32
1.34
-0.01
-0.02
Switzerland
2.2
1.2
0.2
-0.2
0.7
0.8
0.0
0.0
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.25
0.84
0.84
0.01
0.04
Sweden#
2.7
2.4
0.1
0.2
1.5
2.8
0.1
0.7
2.00
2.25
0.00
0.00
11.2
11.5
0.1
0.8
Eurozone^^
0.8
1.2
-0.2
-0.1
3.1
3.1
0.1
0.5
2.75
3.00
0.00
0.50
1.11
1.10
-0.02
-0.06
Germany^^
1.0
1.5
0.0
0.3
2.7
2.7
-0.1
0.1
2.75
3.00
-
-
-
-
-
-
France^^
0.5
1.0
0.1
0.2
2.6
2.7
0.2
0.5
2.75
3.00
-
-
-
-
-
-
Italy^^
0.8
0.8
-0.1
0.1
3.4
3.3
0.4
0.8
2.75
3.00
-
-
-
-
-
-
Spain^^
2.5
1.8
-0.1
-0.3
3.9
3.5
0.1
0.5
2.75
3.00
-
-
-
-
-
-
Greece^^
2.0
1.8
0.2
0.0
3.7
2.4
-0.2
-0.3
2.75
3.00
-
-
-
-
-
-
EMEA
1.1
3.6
-0.3
0.6
9.9
8.1
0.1
-0.1
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Turkey
2.6
3.1
-0.2
-0.6
31.1
23.9
0.1
-0.3
36.00
28.50
1.0
-0.5
51
57
-0.6
-3.0
SouthAfrica
1.3
2.0
0.2
0.5
4.3
4.5
0.0
0.6
7.25
6.50
0.0
-0.3
16
17
-0.5
1.1
Kazakhstan
4.5
3.5
-0.1
-1.2
12.3
7.3
2.0
-1.7
14.50
12.00
-
-
627
638
-
-
Czech
2.3
2.6
0.2
0.2
2.1
3.1
0.0
0.5
4.00
3.75
0.3
0.0
24.2
24.0
-0.1
0.0
Hungary
1.9
2.9
0.0
0.3
1.7
2.2
-0.2
-0.6
5.25
5.00
0.3
0.5
355
340
-10.0
-15.0
Poland
3.4
3.6
-0.1
0.6
3.1
4.0
0.0
0.7
4.00
4.00
0.3
0.3
4.3
4.4
-0.07
0.05
Russia
0.8
1.7
0.0
0.6
6.0
5.1
-0.2
-0.3
12.50
8.00
-1.5
-3.5
85
90
1.0
0.0
UAE
-0.5
5.7
-1.1
-1.3
3.0
2.3
0.0
0.0
4.15
4.40
-
-
3.67
3.67
-
-
SaudiArabia
-3.4
10.4
-1.5
3.6
1.8
2.0
-0.2
0.0
4.75
5.00
-
-
3.75
3.75
-
-
Asia(exJapan)
5.2
5.0
0.4
0.3
2.4
2.3
0.9
0.4
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Australia
NewZealandHongKong"Singapore
2.0
2.1
4.5
5.3
1.4
2.2
3.0
3.2
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.0
-0.2
-0.2
4.1
3.8
1.9
1.9
3.4
2.7
1.7
1.9
0.2
0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.5
0.3
4.853.002.97
1.75
4.603.252.84
1.75
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.0
-0.1
0.690.567.80
1.29
0.700.557.80
1.29
-0.01
-0.01
-0.04
0.02
100
-0.03
-0.05
0.00
0.03180
-0.2
0.2
0.0
-
-
-0.1
Korea
Taiwan
MalaysiaThailand
IndonesiaPhilippinesIndia**
Vietnam
3.5
11.0
5.2
2.3
5.1
2.9
7.2
7.0
2.5
4.3
4.7
2.9
5.2
5.1
7.0
6.5
0.0
-0.5
0.0
0.1
-0.1
2.8
1.9
1.9
1.9
3.4
5.9
5.2
3.3
2.2
1.9
1.8
2.0
3.6
4.9
5.0
3.4
0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
3.252.002.751.006.005.756.00
4.25
3.252.003.001.256.256.006.00
4.25
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.0
-0.3
-0.1
0.0
0.3
0.4
1.0
0.0
0.0
1460
32.0
4.1
33
18500
64.0
96.0
1500
31.0
4.1
33
18000
64.0
98.0
0.2
-0.3
0.1
0.5
-1.3
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.5
-0.5
0.8
-0.1
-0.3
0.1
0.6
0.2
0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.1
0.6
0.7
600
1.2
150
2.4
0.1
-0.1
-0.2
1.7
-
-
0.0
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.3
0.0
-
0.3
-
-
0.4
-
-
1.09
0.3
-
China""
4.6
4.6
0.0
0.2
0.9
0.8
1.40
1.40
-
-
7.00
6.90
LatinAmerica*
1.6
2.1
-0.3
0.1
7.8
6.4
0.1
0.4
-
-
-
-
-
-
ArgentinaMexico
Brazil
Venezuela"""
Chile
Colombia
Peru
3.3
0.8
1.6
-4.0
0.7
2.5
2.8
3.4
2.0
1.5
-3.0
3.0
2.4
3.6
1.3
0.8
32.9
3.7
4.5
600.0
3.6
6.0
3.6
22.8
3.7
4.4
550.0
3.2
5.3
2.2
-0.2
-
6.50
13.75
-
4.5012.25
4.75
-
6.50
11.00
-
5.0011.50
5.25
-
0.0
-
0.0
1700
18.755.320969503885
3.45
1900
19.005.496409573930
3.48
125
-0.6
-0.3
0.2
-0.1
0.0
-
-0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
-
-0.1
0.0
-0.7
0.50
0.2
-
0.3
-0.8
0.0
-10.0
-9.0
0.0
0.0
-
0.0
-
-25
20
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.5
0.3
-0.3
685
0.05
508
0.14
-0.3
0.3
0.8
G7***
1.7
1.7
0.1
0.1
3.1
2.6
0.1
0.1
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
DM
2.1
1.9
0.0
0.0
3.0
2.6
0.0
0.1
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
EM
4.0
4.6
-0.1
0.2
4.5
3.8
0.0
-0.2
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
World*
3.2
3.4
-0.1
0.1
3.9
3.3
0.0
-0.1
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Source:Haver,CEIC,NationalStatistics,UBSforecasts,Bloombergconsensusmedianforecasts.1/calendaryearaverage.*ForCPI,excludesVenezuela.**ForecastsforIndiarelatetofiscalyears2026and2027,withFYendingMarch.***G8aggregateforecastforconsensus.^Fedpolicyratesareupperboundtargetrate.^^ECBeffectivepolicyrate(thedepositrate)."3MHIBOR.ItisthebenchmarkinterestrateusedbytheHongKongcentralbank.^^^Czech,HungaryandPolandFXisversusEUR.""1-yeardepositrate."""ForFX,blendedweightedaverageofseveralavailableFXrates.#CPIforSwedenreferstoCPIF(ConsumerPriceIndexwithaFixedinterestrate).
GlobalEconomicForecastDatabase4November2026ab7
Forecastsbyindicator
GlobalEconomicForecastDatabase4November2026ab8
RealGDP,%y/y
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026E
2027E
US
-2.1
6.3
2.4
2.9
3.0
2.3
2.4
2.2
Canada
-5.0
6.0
4.7
2.0
2.0
1.7
1.0
1.9
Japan
-4.3
3.6
1.2
0.9
0.1
1.2
0.8
0.9
Germany
-4.1
3.9
1.8
-1.0
0.0
0.3
1.0
1.5
France
-7.4
6.9
2.7
1.6
1.5
0.9
0.5
1.0
Italy
-8.9
8.9
4.8
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.8
UK
-10.0
8.5
5.1
0.3
1.0
1.2
1.5
1.1
Spain
-10.9
6.7
6.4
2.5
3.5
2.6
2.5
1.8
Switzerland
-2.3
6.2
3.6
1.1
1.5
1.6
2.2
1.2
Sweden
-2.1
5.0
1.3
0.0
1.9
1.6
2.7
2.4
Turkey
1.8
11.8
5.4
5.0
3.3
3.6
2.6
3.1
Greece
-9.2
8.7
5.5
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.0
1.8
SouthAfrica
-6.2
4.9
2.1
0.8
0.5
1.1
1.3
2.0
Kazakhstan
-2.5
4.3
3.2
5.1
4.8
5.8
4.5
3.5
CzechRepublic
-5.3
4.0
2.8
0.0
1.3
2.6
2.3
2.6
Hungary
-4.4
7.2
4.2
-0.8
0.7
0.5
1.9
2.9
Poland
-2.0
6.9
5.3
0.2
3.2
3.6
3.4
3.6
Russia
-2.7
5.9
-1.4
4.1
4.9
1.0
0.8
1.7
UAE
-8.7
4.6
7.5
4.3
6.6
6.2
-0.5
5.7
SaudiArabia
-3.8
6.5
12.0
0.5
2.6
4.6
-3.4
10.4
Australia
-2.0
5.4
4.2
2.1
1.0
2.0
2.0
1.4
NewZealand
-1.5
5.5
2.7
2.2
-0.3
0.3
2.1
2.2
HongKong
-6.5
6.5
-3.7
3.2
2.6
3.6
4.5
3.0
Singapore
-3.6
10.1
4.0
1.5
5.3
5.0
5.3
3.2
SouthKorea
-0.7
4.7
2.9
1.5
2.2
1.1
3.5
2.5
Taiwan
3.4
6.7
2.7
1.1
5.3
8.8
11.0
4.3
Malaysia
-5.5
3.3
9.0
3.6
5.2
5.2
5.2
4.7
Thailand
-6.1
1.6
2.6
2.2
2.9
2.4
2.3
2.9
Indonesia
-2.1
3.7
5.3
5.0
5.0
5.1
5.1
5.2
Philippines
-9.5
5.7
7.6
5.5
5.7
4.4
2.9
5.1
India
-5.8
9.7
7.6
7.3
7.2
7.8
7.2
7.0
China
2.3
8.6
3.1
5.4
5.0
5.0
4.6
4.6
Argentina
-9.9
10.4
6.0
-1.9
-1.3
4.4
3.3
3.4
Mexico
-8.6
6.0
3.7
3.1
1.4
0.6
0.8
2.0
Brazil
-3.3
4.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
2.3
1.6
1.5
Venezuela
-30.0
0.5
8.0
4.0
5.0
0.0
-4.0
-3.0
Chile
-6.0
11.7
2.1
0.7
2.8
2.5
0.7
3.0
Colombia
-7.3
11.0
7.3
0.8
1.5
2.6
2.5
2.4
Peru
-11.0
13.6
2.8
-0.4
3.5
3.4
2.8
3.6
Eurozone
-6.0
6.4
3.7
0.4
1.0
1.3
0.8
1.2
EU
-6.9
6.6
3.8
0.5
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.5
G7
-4.2
6.1
2.7
1.8
1.9
1.7
1.7
1.7
Asia(exJapanincAus&NZ)
-0.6
7.8
4.4
5.2
5.2
5.4
5.2
5.0
LatinAmerica
-6.9
7.2
4.0
2.1
2.1
2.1
1.6
2.1
EmergingEMEA
-2.5
6.9
3.4
3.1
3.8
2.7
1.1
3.6
AdvancedEconomies
-4.0
6.1
2.9
1.8
2.0
1.9
2.1
1.9
Emerging&DevelopingEconomies
-1.8
7.8
4.3
4.8
4.8
4.7
4.0
4.6
World
-2.7
7.0
3.7
3.4
3.6
3.5
3.2
3.4
Source:Haver,CEIC,NationalStatistics,UBSforecasts.AllaggregateseriesuseGDPPPPweights.
GlobalEconomicForecastDatabase4November2026ab9
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