国际财务管理第六版中文版第二章.ppt

1、国际财务管理,EUN/RESNICK,SixthEdition,INTERNATIONALFINANCIALMANAGEMENT,EUN/RESNICK,FourthEdition,EvolutionoftheInternationalMonetarySystemCurrentExchangeRateArrangementsEuropeanMonetarySystemEuroandtheEuropeanMonetaryUnionTheMexicanPesoCrisisTheAsianCurrencyCrisisTheArgentinePesoCrisisFixedversusFlexibleE

2、xchangeRateRegimes,ChapterTwoOutline,EvolutionoftheInternationalMonetarySystem,Bimetallism:Before1875ClassicalGoldStandard:1875-1914InterwarPeriod:1915-1944BrettonWoodsSystem:1945-1972TheFlexibleExchangeRateRegime:1973-Present,Bimetallism:Before1875,A“doublestandard”inthesensethatbothgoldandsilverwe

3、reusedasmoney.Somecountrieswereonthegoldstandard,someonthesilverstandard,someonboth.Bothgoldandsilverwereusedasinternationalmeansofpaymentandtheexchangeratesamongcurrenciesweredeterminedbyeithertheirgoldorsilvercontents.GreshamsLawimpliedthatitwouldbetheleastvaluablemetalthatwouldtendtocirculate.,Cl

4、assicalGoldStandard:1875-1914,Duringthisperiodinmostmajorcountries:GoldalonewasassuredofunrestrictedcoinageTherewastwo-wayconvertibilitybetweengoldandnationalcurrenciesatastableratio.Goldcouldbefreelyexportedorimported.Theexchangeratebetweentwocountryscurrencieswouldbedeterminedbytheirrelativegoldco

5、ntents.,Forexample,ifthedollarispeggedtogoldatU.S.$30=1ounceofgold,andtheBritishpoundispeggedtogoldat6=1ounceofgold,itmustbethecasethattheexchangerateisdeterminedbytherelativegoldcontents:,ClassicalGoldStandard:1875-1914,$30=6$5=1,ClassicalGoldStandard:1875-1914,Highlystableexchangeratesundertheclas

6、sicalgoldstandardprovidedanenvironmentthatwasconducivetointernationaltradeandinvestment.Misalignmentofexchangeratesandinternationalimbalancesofpaymentwereautomaticallycorrectedbytheprice-specie-flowmechanism.,Price-Specie-FlowMechanism,SupposeGreatBritainexportedmoretoFrancethanFranceimportedfromGre

7、atBritain.Thiscannotpersistunderagoldstandard.NetexportofgoodsfromGreatBritaintoFrancewillbeaccompaniedbyanetflowofgoldfromFrancetoGreatBritain.ThisflowofgoldwillleadtoalowerpricelevelinFranceand,atthesametime,ahigherpricelevelinBritain.TheresultantchangeinrelativepricelevelswillslowexportsfromGreat

8、BritainandencourageexportsfromFrance.,ClassicalGoldStandard:1875-1914,Thereareshortcomings:Thesupplyofnewlymintedgoldissorestrictedthatthegrowthofworldtradeandinvestmentcanbehamperedforthelackofsufficientmonetaryreserves.Eveniftheworldreturnedtoagoldstandard,anynationalgovernmentcouldabandonthestand

9、ard.,InterwarPeriod:1915-1944,Exchangeratesfluctuatedascountrieswidelyused“predatory”depreciationsoftheircurrenciesasameansofgainingadvantageintheworldexportmarket.Attemptsweremadetorestorethegoldstandard,butparticipantslackedthepoliticalwillto“followtherulesofthegame”.Theresultforinternationaltrade

10、andinvestmentwasprofoundlydetrimental.,BrettonWoodsSystem:1945-1972,Namedfora1944meetingof44nationsatBrettonWoods,NewHampshire.Thepurposewastodesignapostwarinternationalmonetarysystem.Thegoalwasexchangeratestabilitywithoutthegoldstandard.TheresultwasthecreationoftheIMFandtheWorldBank.,BrettonWoodsSy

11、stem:1945-1972,UndertheBrettonWoodssystem,theU.S.dollarwaspeggedtogoldat$35perounceandothercurrencieswerepeggedtotheU.S.dollar.Eachcountrywasresponsibleformaintainingitsexchangeratewithin1%oftheadoptedparvaluebybuyingorsellingforeignreservesasnecessary.TheBrettonWoodssystemwasadollar-basedgoldexchan

12、gestandard.,BrettonWoodsSystem:1945-1972,U.S.dollar,Gold,Peggedat$35/oz.,TheFlexibleExchangeRateRegime:1973-Present.,FlexibleexchangeratesweredeclaredacceptabletotheIMFmembers.Centralbankswereallowedtointerveneintheexchangeratemarketstoironoutunwarrantedvolatilities.Goldwasabandonedasaninternational

13、reserveasset.Non-oil-exportingcountriesandless-developedcountriesweregivengreateraccesstoIMFfunds.,CurrentExchangeRateArrangements,FreeFloatThelargestnumberofcountries,about48,allowmarketforcestodeterminetheircurrencysvalue.ManagedFloatAbout25countriescombinegovernmentinterventionwithmarketforcestos

14、etexchangerates.PeggedtoanothercurrencySuchastheU.S.dollaroreuro(throughfrancormark).NonationalcurrencySomecountriesdonotbotherprintingtheirown,theyjustusetheU.S.dollar.Forexample,Ecuador,Panama,andElSalvadorhavedollarized.,EuropeanMonetarySystem,ElevenEuropeancountriesmaintainexchangeratesamongthei

15、rcurrencieswithinnarrowbands,andjointlyfloatagainstoutsidecurrencies.Objectives:ToestablishazoneofmonetarystabilityinEurope.Tocoordinateexchangeratepoliciesvis-visnon-Europeancurrencies.TopavethewayfortheEuropeanMonetaryUnion.,WhatIstheEuro?,TheeuroisthesinglecurrencyoftheEuropeanMonetaryUnionwhichw

16、asadoptedby11MemberStateson1January1999.Theseoriginalmemberstateswere:Belgium,Germany,Spain,France,Ireland,Italy,Luxemburg,Finland,Austria,PortugalandtheNetherlands.,Whatarethedifferentdenominationsoftheeuronotesandcoins?,Thereare7euronotesand8eurocoins.500,200,100,50,20,10,and5.Thecoinsare:2euro,1e

17、uro,50eurocent,20eurocent,10,eurocent,5eurocent,2eurocent,and1eurocent.Theeuroitselfisdividedinto100cents,justliketheU.S.dollar.,Howdidtheeuroaffectcontractsdenominatedinnationalcurrency?,Allinsuranceandotherlegalcontractscontinuedinforcewiththesubstitutionofamountsdenominatedinnationalcurrencieswit

18、htheirequivalentsineuro.,EuroArea,AustriaBelgiumCyprusCzechRepublicEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIreland,22Countriesparticipatingintheeuro:,ItalyLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMaltaPolandPortugalSlovakRepublicSloveniaSpainTheNetherlands,TheLong-TermImpactoftheEuro,Iftheeuroprovessuccessful,itwil

19、ladvancethepoliticalintegrationofEuropeinamajorway,eventuallymakinga“UnitedStatesofEurope”feasible.ItislikelythattheU.S.dollarwillloseitsplaceasthedominantworldcurrency.TheeuroandtheU.S.dollarwillbethetwomajorcurrencies.,TheMexicanPesoCrisis,On20December,1994,theMexicangovernmentannouncedaplantodeva

20、luethepesoagainstthedollarby14percent.Thisdecisionchangedcurrencytradersexpectationsaboutthefuturevalueofthepeso.Theystampededfortheexits.Intheirrushtogetoutthepesofellbyasmuchas40percent.,TheMexicanPesoCrisis,TheMexicanPesocrisisisuniqueinthatitrepresentsthefirstseriousinternationalfinancialcrisist

21、ouchedoffbycross-borderflightofportfoliocapital.Twolessonsemerge:Itisessentialtohaveamultinationalsafetynetinplacetosafeguardtheworldfinancialsystemfromsuchcrises.Aninfluxofforeigncapitalcanleadtoanovervaluationinthefirstplace.,TheAsianCurrencyCrisis,TheAsiancurrencycrisisturnedouttobefarmoreserious

22、thantheMexicanpesocrisisintermsoftheextentofthecontagionandtheseverityoftheresultanteconomicandsocialcosts.Manyfirmswithforeigncurrencybondswereforcedintobankruptcy.Theregionexperiencedadeep,widespreadrecession.,TheArgentineanPesoCrisis,In1991theArgentinegovernmentpassedaconvertibilitylawthatlinkedt

23、hepesototheU.S.dollaratparity.Theinitialeconomiceffectswerepositive:ArgentinaschronicinflationwascurtailedForeigninvestmentpouredinAstheU.S.dollarappreciatedontheworldmarkettheArgentinepesobecamestrongeraswell.,TheArgentineanPesoCrisis,ThestrongpesohurtexportsfromArgentinaandcausedaprotractedeconomi

24、cdownturnthatledtotheabandonmentofpesodollarparityinJanuary2002.Theunemploymentrateroseabove20percentTheinflationratereachedamonthlyrateof20percent,TheArgentineanPesoCrisis,Thereareatleastthreefactorsthatarerelatedtothecollapseofthecurrencyboardarrangementandtheensuingeconomiccrisis:Lackoffiscaldisc

25、iplineLabormarketinflexibilityContagionfromthefinancialcrisesinBrazilandRussia,CurrencyCrisisExplanations,Intheory,acurrencysvaluemirrorsthefundamentalstrengthofitsunderlyingeconomy,relativetoothereconomies.Inthelongrun.Intheshortrun,currencytradersexpectationsplayamuchmoreimportantrole.Intodaysenvi

26、ronment,tradersandlenders,usingthemostmoderncommunications,actbyfight-or-flightinstincts.Forexample,iftheyexpectothersareabouttosellBrazilianrealsforU.S.dollars,theywantto“gettotheexitsfirst”.Thus,fearsofdepreciationbecomeself-fulfillingprophecies.,FixedversusFlexibleExchangeRateRegimes,Argumentsinfavorofflexibleexchangerates:Easierexternaladjustments.Nationalpolicyautonomy.Argumentsagainstflexibleexchangerates:Exchangerateuncertaintymayhamperinternationaltrade.Nosafeguardstopreventcrises.,FixedversusFlexibleExchangeRateRegimes,Supposetheexchangerateis$1.40/today.Inthenextsli